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The 2016 World Series from Mother Nature's Perspective

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The 2016 World Series from Mother Nature's Perspective The 2016 World Series From Mother Nature’s Perspective Caleb Wood1 & Dr. William Gallus1 1Department of Geological & Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University Honors Poster Presentation: May 1, 2019 1 Motivation 4 Results 5 What did we learn? Major League Baseball (MLB) players face a unique challenge with a season that 1. Chicago Cubs were favored to win more stretches from April through October. games than Cleveland Indians based off Weather ranging from snow to extreme regular season performance under weather present in World Series (4 to 1) heat all happens within a season. This study investigates the relative predictability of the 2016 World Series 2. Weather model predicted 4 game game outcomes using player statistics outcomes correctly (Games 2,4,5,6) specific to the weather present during each game. The importance of understanding players’ performances in 3. Regular Season model predicted 5 game varying weather is explored. outcomes correctly (Games 2,4,5,6,7) 2 Objectives • Cleveland Indians: Higher batting average across 7 games 4. Weather model demonstrated more 1. Which team, Cleveland Indians or • Chicago Cubs: Higher HR/Game and RBI/Game across 7 games game-to-game outcome variability than Chicago Cubs, was favored to win the Regular Season model 2016 World Series based off the weather conditions during the series? 6 2. To what degree can weather conditions Limitations (temperature and wind) be used to 1. Wind direction data simply categorized predict a game’s outcome? into 8 groups without complete vector 3. Is simply using total regular season analysis statistics, without weather analysis, 2. Linear weighted average for each player’s more accurate with the 2016 WS? game performance across 3 weather variables 3 3. Each starting player given same weight Data & Methods when calculating team average 4. 6 baseball statistics weighted evenly to Weather Categories calculate a game outcome (win/loss) Temp. Anomaly -30⁰F to 15⁰F by 5 • Chicago Cubs: Higher ERA, WHIP, and K/9IP across 7 0 mph to 25 mph by most of the 7 games Acknowledgements Wind Speed 5 • Cleveland Indians: better stats in Games 1,4,&7 (C. Much appreciation for the direction and advice provided by my advisor, Dr. William In and out from LF, Weather Model Kluber) Regular Season (Reference) Model Wind Direction CF, RF; LF to RF and Gallus, throughout the semester project. Temp. Dep. WS + RF to LF Game Cubs Indians Prediction Game Outcome Game Cubs Indians Prediction (⁰F) WD Use of the MATLAB programming language 10 mph was quite instrumental in compiling statistics Batting Pitching 1 3 3 Tie 1 -5 Indians 6-0 1 4 2 Cubs W In RF and producing the plots 11 mph Batt. Average ERA 2 6 0 Cubs W 2 -15 Cubs 5-1 2 6 0 Cubs W RF to LF 8 HR/Game WHIP 14 mph References 3 5 1 Cubs W 3 -5 Indians 1-0 3 6 0 Cubs W Out CF Bahill, A. T., D. G. Baldwin, and J. S. Ramburg, 2009: Effects of RBI/Game K/9IP Altitude and Atmospheric Conditions on the Flight of a Baseball. 7 mph International Journal of Sports Science and Engineering, 3, 109–128 4 2 4 Indians W 4 +1 Indians 7-2 4 2 3 Indians W In CF • Data taken from BaseballReference.com Baseball Reference, 2018: Statistics. Accessed 16 September 2018, 10 mph https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2018.shtml. • Each player’s baseball statistsics found for 5 5 1 Cubs W 5 -5 Cubs 3-2 5 5 1 Cubs W each possible weather category across the In CF Koch, B. L., and A. K. Panorska, 2013: The Impact of Temperature on 2016 regular season 9 mph Major League Baseball. Wea. Climate Soc., 5, 359–366, DOI: 6 4 2 Cubs W 6 +10 Cubs 9-3 6 5 1 Cubs W 10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00002.1. • Player WS game stats from weighted average Out CF of stats from 3 weather categories for game 7 mph Cubs 8-7 The Weather Channel, 2016: World Series Game 7 Will Feature 7 3 3 Tie 7 +10 7 5 1 Cubs W More November Warmth in Cleveland. Accessed 16 September • Team average stats from starting players stats LF to RF (10 innings) 2018, https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/world-series- for each WS game 2016-forecast-cubs-indians. • WS Win = at least 4 of 6 stats in team’s favor.
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