Adaptation Measures for Nile Delta Coastal Area Under Climate Change

Prof. Mohamed Soliman Director of Coastal Research Institute, NWRC Ministry of Water Resource and Irrigation, BACKGROUND

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal!!,..” (IPCC)

(ppm)

2 2 CO

Year IPCC AR5, 2013 BACKGROUND Africa’s climate is already changing and the impacts are already being felt

1972 2007 EGYPTIAN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE • Egypt is a typical example of a developing country that is highly vulnerable to climate change

• So, where is Egypt now from these threats of the climate change & what are the main challenges

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY CLIMATE CHANGE & the EXTREME EVENTS EXTREME EVENTS

• Egypt’s climate has already changed. • Sandstorms, rainstorms, unusual and untimely temperature fluctuations have noticeably become more frequent over the past few years.

Saint Catherine in Sinai, Egypt in 2012. Children in Saint Catherine building a snowman at the school yard during a rare snowstorm that blanketed most of the Middle East in December 2014. Source: EPA EXTREME EVENTS

• An increase in the climate’s temperature means warmer oceans, which speeds up the process of water evaporation giving more power to storms. • A warmer atmosphere also allows for excess moisture that in turn causes more rain

El Gouna 9 March 2014 2015 EXTREME EVENTS

Egypt 2016 Extreme Event at Ras Gharib, Egypt 2016 Extreme Event at , Egypt 2016 Nile Delta Coast (flow )34 B m3/y 1 B m3/y (Sediment) 19 M tons/y ~0 tons/y

Before After

(70% to )

Annual Nile River discharge (km3) through Rosetta Branch during the period 1956-2007, (Hamza 2006) Siltation Problem

Pollution problem

MEDITERRANEAN SEA

Burg Kitchener El Burullus   Drain Ras El Bar Rosetta Harbor Promontory Burullus Gamasa  Lake Drain  Rosetta  Damietta

Abu Quir Manzalla El-Gamil   Idku  Damietta Lake  Alexandria NILE DELTA Branch  Idku Lake Rosetta Maryut Branch Lake Rainfall = 2% Eorativapon = 16%

Drainage = 97% Outflow = 80% dS = 4% Human = 0.2%

Groundwater = 0.8%

Sinai coast (Ground Water)

MEDITERRANEAN SEA Rafah   Port Said Manzalla El-Kals ISRAEL Lake  El-Bardawil  Lake El-

SINAI 0 20 40 60 km

 El-Kantarah

•The Groundwater in the only water resource in the Sinai peninsula. •Over exploitation of groundwater in coastal aquifers cause: - Lowering of the potentiometric surface. - Deterioration of groundwater quality and quantity. - Increase of the TDS by 1500 ppm during the last 50 years. - Increase in the saltwater intrusion ( Water interface is expected to migrate 5.5 km landward within the next 15 years). - Coastal erosion.

North Western coast (Rainfall harvesting) Long Waves

•Nile Delta Coast COASTAL PROBLEMS

Erosion due to dynamic factors and reduction in sediment supply from river Nile since the construction of HAD in 1964 (Rosetta, Burullus and Damietta, …etc.). Erosion due to protection constructions (seawalls of Rosetta, detached breakwaters of Baltim beach, …etc.). Siltation of estuaries and lakes outlets, harbours and navigation channels, (Rosetta and Damietta estuaries, Idku, Burullus and Manzala lakes, …etc.). Environmental problems of Med. wetlands regarding pollution loads from drainage water, aquatic weeds, …etc.

•WEPCO •Alexandria cornish damages 2010

•Alexandria beaches erosion

•Elmontazah Bridge siltation, 2006 • Rosetta promontory

•1900

• 1800 to 1909 •1964

• Shoreline Advanced (3.5 km) •1971 • 25 m/yr (E), 20 m/yr (W). •1988 •1990 • 1900 to 1996 •1991

• Shoreline retreated 50 m/yr •1996 • (4.8 km in 96 years) •2000

•Rosetta Promontory (1900 to 2000) •1980 •1973

•Rosetta Lighthouse

•1990 •Rosetta resort 1980

• Rosetta Lighthouse Area

Siltation at Rosseta Outlet •Baltim Resort •Ras El Bar

•Damietta Promontory •The shoreline changes are similar to those at Rosetta. • 19th century prograding 20th century retrograding 1909 to 1983 (retreat 2.6 km) 18 m/yr (W) and 28 m/yr (E)

•1935 •1911 •1895 •1955 •1983 •Vertical Conc. Wall (1972)

•1991 •1995 •2000

•Damietta Promontory (1895 to 2000)

•Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) has increased its activities to define precisely the vulnerable areas taking into account the morphological features of the Nile Delta coastal zones (Sand dunes and Ridges)

1900 Shoreline 1900 Shoreline 1955 Shoreline 1895 Shoreline 1965 1810 1935 Shoreline 1964 Shoreline 1988 Shoreline 1911 Shoreline 1982 1909 1911 Shoreline 1992 Shoreline 1971 1935 Shoreline 1990 1895 Shoreline 1990 1965 Shoreline 1900 Shoreline 1935 1947 Shoreline 1991 1964 Shoreline 1988 1955 Shoreline 1955 Shoreline 1992 Shoreline 1964 1964 Shoreline 1990 Shoreline 2000 Shoreline 1971 1988 Shoreline 1983 1955 Shoreline 1991 2000 1988 1982 Shoreline 1988 Shoreline 1991 1971 Shoreline 1996 1990 1992 Shoreline 1990 Shoreline 1995 Grand Hotel Shoreline 1991 Shoreline 2000 1983 Shoreline 1996 1991 1990 1995 1991 1992 Shoreline 2000 2000 2000 Light House Paved Road Protection Sea Wall MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION Lake Burullus NATIONAL WATER RESEARCH CENTER 1988 COASTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE 1990 0 400 800 1000 m 0 400 800 1000 m 0 200 400 600 800 m 0 400 800 1000 m 0 200 400 m GIS and Remote Sensing Unit 1991 Shoreline Evolution at Burullus lake outlet Shoreline Evolution at Baltim Sea Resort Shoreline Evolution at Damietta Shoreline Evolution East of Damietta Nile (1810 to 2000) (1955 to 1990) Promontory (1895 to 2000) Branch (From 1965 to 2000)

1996 2000 Burullus Field Station Zone BRP 8.0 BRP 4.0 BRP 5.0 BRP 7.0 BRP 3.0 BRP 6.0 BRP 2.0 BRP 2.4 BRP 1.5 WBP 62.6 BRP 1.0 WBP 61.6 WBP 59.9 BRP 0.6 WBP 60.6 BRP 0.2 WBP 58.6

WBP 57.6 Shoreline Evolution at Rosetta Promontory Rosetta Field Station Zone WBP 56.8 Ras El Bar Research Station Zone

WBP 50.0 BRP 9.0 BRP 9.5 BRP 11.4 BRP 13.0 BRP 13.4 BRP 14.8

BRP 16.5

(1900 to 2000) WBP 45.0 200 BRP 20.0

West of Rosetta Mouth WBP 40.0 180 BRP 24.0 East of Rosetta Mouth BRP 28.0 160 WBP 35.0

WBP 30.0 140 BRP 38.0 GSP 28.4 WBP 25.0 GSP 28.3

GSP 26.4GSP 27.0 WBP 5.7 WBP 4.6 120 GSP 25.4 GSP 24.4

BRP 43.0 RGP 0.1 RGP 1.5 RGP 0.0 WBP 4.1 GSP 24.1 WBP 2.9 WBP 21.7 GSP 23.1 100 GSP 20.3 RGP 2.5 GSP 19.3

GSP 17.9 WBP 5.8 WBP RHP 30.1 GSP 17.0 WBP 6.8 GSP 16.0 80 WBP 9.0 BRP 48.0 GSP 13.0 WBP 10.6 4 WBP 17.8 60 WBP 13.2 WBP 15.1 GSP 3.9 GSP 9.7

BRP 55.0

BRP 56.6 BRP 57.7

40 GSP 1.0 RHP 30.0

20 Shoreline Retreat(meter/Year) RHP 28.3 RGP 6.0 0 RHP 26.8 5 RGP 20.0 RHP 24.8 RHP 23.0

RHP 22.0

1909:1922 1922:1942 1942:1955 1955:1971 1971:1981 1981:1983 1983:1987 1987:1988 1988:1990 1990:1991 1991:1994 1994:1996 1898:1909 RHP 21.0 Time Period (Year) RGP 22.0 RHP 20.0 3 RHP 19.0 RHP 18.0 Shoreline Retreat Rate East and West Rosetta RHP 17.0 RHP 16.0 Mouth During The Past Century RHP 15.0 RHP 10.0

AMP 15.0 AMP

RHP 0.0 RGP 32.0

RGP 37.0

Abu Qir Research Station Zone RGP 40.0 ALP1 ALP3

GPP 0.0 ALP9 ALP14 GPP 5.0 ALP17 ALP19 1 Institute Administration Building Hydrografic and Land Profiles (Since )1971

ALP25 ALP31 2 2 Abu Qir Research Station Tide Gauge Stations 19(Years Separated) ALP33 ALP37 3 Rosetta Field Station Wave and Current Gauge Stations (S4DW 13)(Years Separated) 4 Burullus Field Station Longshore Current (Litteral current )Measurement Stations (Since 1982)

ALP 49.0 ALP 50.0 5 Ras El Bar Research Station Current beyond breaker zone Measurement Stations 25(Years Separated) ALP 51.0 ALP 52.0 ALP 53.0 ALP 54.0 Weather Station (Since 2000Separted) ALP 55.0 ALP 56.0 ALP 57.0 ALP 58.0 ALP 59.0 ALP 60.0 1 ALP 61.0 Water Quality Sampling Stations (Since 1998 Separated) ALP 62.0 ALP 63.0 Sediment Sampling Stations (Since )1971

0 10 20 30 km

coastا لمحDelta طات Nileا لحtheق لية وalong األنشطprofiles ة البحbeachث ية المختلفةhydrographic لم200ع هد بحAboutو•ث الشواطئ

'

00

o 32 • •Mediterranean Sea

•BURULLUS •ROSETTA •Baltim •DAMIETTA

•PROMONTORY •PROMONTORY

' •Gamasa

30 •Burullus • Lagoon

o

31 • •Abu Quir •Bay •Port Said • •NILE DELTA •Idku •Lagoon

•

'

00

o

31 •Old Dunes Cultivated Land • •Beach and backshore • •0 •20• km

•Coastal Dunes •Desert •Northern Coast Ridge

Suez Canal • توزيع الكثبان الرملية على طول دلتا نهر النيل• •30o 00' •30o 30' •31o 00' •31o 30' •32o 00' •32o 30'

1- Dredged Material Placement to Support Sustainable Shoreline Management in the Nile Delta and economic use of black sand separation

Proposed nourished areas

Proposed schemes of nourishment placement and quantity

•300000 m3 sand nourishment

•500000 m3 sand nourishment 2- Dike system for shoreline protection due to hydrodynamic erosion and sea level rise 3- Natural chain of coastal sand dunes stabilizing and creation by using modern plant

•International coastal road Sand Dunes At the West Side of Rosseta Region Stabilizing techniques Accumulative “frames” Sand accumulative measures Accumulative effects of fences Brushwood on dune slope and fascine fence at dune toe Sand accumulative and stablizing

1- Adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise in the Nile Delta coastal zone, Egypt

Impacts of SLR and the vulnerability of coastal communities, economic sectors and natural systems in the areas of Ras El Bar, City and Gamasa Cultivated land affected by high levels of groundwater until 2100 •Implied concerns of SLR on coastal zone: • Vulnerability to inundation of lowlands, and the agricultural activities and infrastructure; 9.7km2 - or 1.3 % - of the study area would be inundated • Advancement of saltwater/freshwater interface inland within the aquifer; High groundwater levels were projected to affect 243km2 – or 60% - of the study area •Saltwater intrusion and potential elevated salinity in water and soil •Shortage in fresh groundwater availability for beneficial uses •Elevation in groundwater levels •Concerns on agricultural land productivity and pressure on drainage systems •Impacts on natural resources, fisheries and ecosystem sustainability •Impacts on development process and socio-economic activities, and safety of populated areas. Sea level Rise and land subsidence Vulnerabilities on Nile low land coastal zone Vulnerability of Nile Delta to Climate Change The impact of sea level rise on the Nile Delta based on actual data measured by Tide Gauges.

• Tide gauges data for the last three decades in Alexandria, Al-Burullus, and Port Said have been collected and analyzed. • Trends for S L R at Alexandria, Al-Burullus, and Port Said have been defined. • Average annual accelerated sea level rise value (ASLR) has been estimated at each location. • Morphological features of the coastal zones of the Nile Delta were defined by about 200 hydrographic beach profiles taken by CoRI.

SLR and Subsidence Rates at the Nile Delta

Region Alexandria Al-Burullus Port Said Tidal Trend (mmly) 1.6 2.3 5.3

Subsidence (mm/y) 0.4 1.1 3.35

SLR (mm/y) 1.2 1.2 1.95

Projected Values of Mean Air Temperature

Temperature Change for Years 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 (ºC) 2000 scenario 2025 2050 2075 2100

0.6 B1 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.8

0.6 A1F1 1.2 2.2 3.2 4.0 Trend and Accelerated Sea Level Rise (ASLR) Measured Along the Nile Delta Coast. (CoRI-2007), First Scenario

Average Sea Level Sea Level Sea Level Sea Level Station Annual ASLT Rise (Cm) Rise (Cm) Rise (Cm) Rise (Cm) (Cm) 2025 2050 2075 2100

Alex. 0.16 4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0

Al-Burullus 0.23 5.75 11.5 16.25 23.0

Port Said 0.53 13.25 26.5 39.75 53.0

Three scenarios were established:

•The first scenario was established by assuming that the same rate of temperature change (0.6 ºC over the last century) will occur till 2100 and using tidal gauge measurements, CoRI.

•The second scenario was established by temperature projection till 2100. Temperature change is assumed to be 1.8 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century, B1.

•The third scenario was established by temperature projection to be 4.0 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century, A1F1. Current protection development

Abu Quir Bay

Low Lands (1.5 – 2.5 m Below Sea Level) Protected By Muhammed Ali Sea Wall Sea Level Rise Impact due to Temperature Increase up to 2100

Scenario : BACoRI1 F1 Year : Present2025 Year : 2050 Year : 2075 Year : 2100 Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta Area According to CoRI measurements till 2100 (With Mohammed Ali wall and lakes border)

Year 2025 2050 2075 2100

Total Area Affected (km2) 93.68 134.0 139.2 183.8

Total % of the Nile Delta Area 0.37 0.54 0.56 0.74 Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (B1 scenario) (With Mohammed Ali wall lake's borders)

Year 2025 2050 2075 2100

Total Area Affected (km2) 118.5 169.45 221.83 243.1

Total % of the Nile Delta Area 0.45 0.68 0.89 0.97 Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (A1F1 scenario) (With Mohammed Ali wall and lake's borders)

Year 2025 2050 2075 2100

Total Area Affected (km2) 152.86 256.27 450 761.4

Total % of the Nile Delta Area 0.61 1.03 1.8 3.01 Adaptation Process and Policies Planed By MWRI through CoRI and SPA Adaptation Activities

A National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change is being developed

Conducted projects for Tec. NEEDs and Financial Assessment to address Mitigations of CC.

Environmental Friendly low cost measures for protecting low land from sea water inundation

Sandy Dike Burullus area,middle Nile Delta coast, pilot project

Fence only Dike without vegetation

Dike with vegetation General Location Mastrauh coastal area

30 km east Rosetta and 29 km west Burullus harbor

30.11.2016 73 Project components Three Dikes were designed to posture wave actions, each has 250 ms legnth with space 150 ms in between

30.11.2016 74 Eastern pilot site

30.11.2016 75 Evolution

Site Photos

14 March 2016

3 March 2016

5 January 2016

15 December 2015

8 December 2015

30.11.2016 76 Middle pilot site

30.11.2016 77 Evolution Site Photos

14 March 2016

3 March 2016

23 February 2016

17 February 2016

26 January 2016

30.11.2016 78 Western pilot site

30.11.2016 79 Evolution Site photos

14 March 2016

23 February 2016

8 February 2016

26 January 2016

4 January 2016

30.11.2016 80 Dredging for Land Reclamation & Beach Nourishment Northern lakes development

IPCC recommends to create wetlands in areas vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise in low lying deltas. Maintenance of Natural chain of coastal sand dunes and the international coastal road

International coastal road سياسات التكيف: بناءاً على النتائج المستخلصة من هذه الدراسة وتحديد األماكن األكثر خطورة لفيضان البحر فإن الدراسة تقترح األتى: • المحافظة على نظم الكثبان الرملية وتثبيتها )بالتشجير أو أى أسلوب علمى أخر(. • تعتبر البحيرات الشمالية )المناطق الرطبة( من أهم نظم التكيف حسب تقرير الـ (IPCC- 2007) لذا يجب المحافظة عليها والعمل على رفع جسور محيطها من كل االتجاهات بما ال يقل عن 2 متر عن منسوب سطح المياه بها. • دراسة استعمال الطريق الدولى الشمالى كخط دفاع ثانى وذلك بإعادة تصميم واجهته الشمالية باتجاه البحر للعمل كحائط بحرى. • تعلية جسور بحيرات إدكو ومريوط أيضاً والمحافظة على منسوب جسور البرلس والمنزلة. • المحافظة على حائط محمد على ووضعه تحت المراقبة المستمرة خاصة بعد النوات. • عدم وضع خطط تنموية فى مناطق الشريط الرملى الواقع بين بحيرة المنزلة والبحر وبحيرة البرلس والبحر. • دراسة تنفيذ أعمال الحماية للمنطقة الممتدة بين جمصه ودمياط الجديدة تبعاً للمحددات الطبيعية والدراسات الحقلية المستفيضة. • زيادة الوعى بأهمية الكثبان الرملية لدى مسئولى المحافظات الساحلية. • بناء القدرات للعاملين بالدراسات واألبحاث الخاصة بوضع سياسات التكيف مع مشكلة تغير المناخ. Development of Idko lake and sea outlet to adapt to the futuristic climate change

‎Max discharge and outlet gate with pump station scenario

Outlet gate and pump Outlet gate and pump station station Max discharge and 0.5 accelerated sea level rise Scenario

Lake mean water level 1.34 ms National Monitoring system

Mitigation Activities

Conducted National Strategy for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in 2002 followed by Capacity Development Project in CDM (2003-2006). Developing of current protection measures to use it for energy production Energy production New protection measures with main directive to produce energy from wave and tide on the north coast and river outlets

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