[Korea] Internet May 6, 2021

Kakao Buy (035720 KS ) (Maintain)

IPO plus earnings momentum confirmed TP: W142,000 ▲ Upside: 23.5%

Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. Chang-kwean Kim [email protected]

1Q21 review: Revenue and OP up Strong performance s across all growth businesses (ads, commerce, fintech, content, and 45% and 79% YoY, respectively mobility) ó For 1Q21, reported revenue of W1.26tr (+45% YoY) and operating profit of W157.5bn (+79% YoY), in line with our expectations (W1.27tr and W156bn). ó Revenue was up 51% YoY for platforms and 38% YoY for content. In the platform segment, growth was driven by Talk Biz (KakaoTalk ads, commerce, etc.) and New Biz (mobility, payments , etc.), where revenue increased 61% and 89% YoY, respectively. ó In the content segment, revenue from paid content (KakaoPage and ) grew 80% YoY, and IP business/other revenue (films, dramas, etc.) expanded 55% YoY. ó Despite a surge in labor costs, OP margin improved to 12.5%, helped by a higher mix of more profitable revenue sources (ads, commissions, etc.) and lower marketing expenses. Around W135.1bn in equity-method gains (including from Dunamu) were recognized in the quarter.

Kakao Pay and Kakao Bank slated and Kakao Japan likely to go public in 2022, followed by Mobility for IPOs in 2021 ó In April, KakaoBank and KakaoPay filed preliminary IPO applications. Both companies look likely to list in 3Q21. ó Looking further ahead, we believe Kakao Entertainm ent and Kakao Japan will go public in 2022, followed by Kakao Mobility. ó IPOs of major consolidated subsidiaries should cause the market value of new businesses to be priced in.

Raise TP to W142,000 Reflecting Pay/Bank IPO value s and potential IPO s of Dunamu/Mobility in our valuation ó We adjust up our 2021 and 2022 operating profit forecasts by 2.0% and 1.0%, respectively. ó We raise our target price on Kakao to W142,000 (from W118,000). ó Our target price reflects: 1) the expected IPO values of KakaoPay and KakaoBank; 2) the estimated market valuation of Dunamu, which is witnessing rapid earnings improvement and recently saw a peer go public; and 3) the market valuation of Kakao Mobility based on its recent fundraising valuation.

Key data

Current price (5/6/21, W) 115,000 Market cap (Wbn) 51,038 330 Kakao KOSPI OP (21F, Wbn) 751 Shares outstanding (mn) 444 280 Consensus OP (21F, Wbn) 784 Free float (%) 72.9 230

180 EPS growth (21F, %) 409.8 Foreign ownership (%) 33.4

130 P/E (21F, x) 63.5 Beta (12M) 0.63

80 Market P/E (21F, x) 12.0 52-week low (W) 39,900 5.20 9.20 1.21 5.21 KOSPI 3,178.74 52-week high (W) 121,500

Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Absolute 5.7 55.2 188.2 Revenue (Wbn) 2,417 3,070 4,157 5,670 6,883 7,991 Relative 4.0 18.0 74.9 OP (Wbn) 73 207 456 751 1,095 1,369

OP margin (%) 3.0 6.7 11.0 13.2 15.9 17.1 NP (Wbn) 48 -301 156 804 881 985 EPS (W) 123 -717 355 1,811 1,984 2,219 ROE (%) 1.0 -5.8 2.7 12.0 11.7 11.7 P/E (x) 168.0 - 219.3 63.5 58.0 51.8 P/B (x) 1.7 2.5 5.5 7.2 6.4 5.7 Div. yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research estimat es Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. May 6, 2021 Kakao

Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21P 2Q21F 3Q21F 4Q21F 2019 2020 2021F Revenue 868 953 1,100 1,235 1,258 1,345 1,505 1,562 3,070 4,157 5,670 Platform 442 493 554 657 669 713 774 825 1,435 2,146 2,980 Talk Biz 225 248 284 360 362 386 434 470 650 1,118 1,652 Portal Biz 117 117 121 123 117 118 120 121 524 478 477 New Biz 101 127 149 174 190 208 220 234 261 550 852 Content 427 460 546 578 589 632 731 737 1,635 2,011 2,690 Games 97 107 150 141 130 129 185 169 397 495 613 Music 151 151 156 155 157 158 160 157 587 613 631 Paid content 97 119 148 164 175 215 252 271 297 528 913 IP business/other 82 83 92 119 127 130 135 140 354 375 532 OP 88 98 120 150 157 175 200 219 207 456 751 OP margin 10.2 10.3 10.9 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.3 14.0 6.7 11.0 13.3 NP 80 145 144 -195 240 205 216 234 -342 173 895 Net margin 9.2 15.2 13.1 - 15.8 19.1 15.2 14.4 15.0 - 11.1 4.2 15.8 YoY growth Revenue 22.9 30.0 40.5 45.7 44.9 41.1 36.7 26.5 27.0 35.4 36.4 Platform 41.1 50.7 58.1 47.9 51.4 44.6 39.6 25.6 38.0 49.6 38.9 Talk Biz 77.1 78.8 75.1 62.6 60.9 55.5 52.5 30.5 54.3 72.0 47.8 Portal Biz -7.8 -14.2 -3.9 -8.6 0.7 0.4 -0.7 -1.3 5.7 -8.7 -0.2 New Biz 68.1 148.8 139.0 97.0 88.9 64.3 47.8 34.3 112.9 110.5 54.8 Content 8.5 13.3 26.3 43.3 38.1 37.4 33.8 27.6 18.7 23.0 33.8 Games 3.0 9.2 51.9 32.9 34.5 20.4 22.7 20.1 -4.7 24.7 23.8 Music 9.8 4.4 2.8 1.2 4.0 4.6 2.5 1.2 10.1 4.4 3.1 Paid content 30.0 46.0 61.5 232.6 80.0 80.8 69.8 65.7 36.1 77.6 72.9 IP business/other -6.1 1.2 1.6 24.7 55.5 57.1 47.0 18.3 69.1 5.8 42.0 OP 218.9 141.7 103.5 88.2 78.5 78.7 66.3 46.4 183.7 120.5 64.8 NP 354.9 368.6 179.3 RR 200.3 41.0 50.3 TTB TTR TTB 416.0 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research estimates

Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % chg. Note 2021F 2022F 2021F 2021F 2022F 2021F Revenue 5,568 6,739 5,670 6,883 1.8 2.1 OP 736 1,084 751 1,095 2.0 1.0 NP 663 888 895 981 35.0 10.5 OP margin 13.2 16.1 13.2 15.9 - - Net margin 11.8 13.0 12.8 12.8 - - Source: Mirae Asset Securities Research

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Table 3. Valuation (Wbn) 2019 2020 2021F Notes Ad revenue 670 1,301 1,695 Target multiple is based on 2020F P/S of Facebook; KakaoTalk ad revenue surge d in 2020; a valuation re -rating is Value 4,479 11,926 20,448 expected, as was the case with Facebook in 2013 . Gaming revenue 417 495 613 Value 2,551 3,364 4,114 Target multiple is in line with the 2021F avg. P/S of Netmarble, NCsoft, and Pearl Abyss. Music revenue 533 613 631 Value 1,780 4,259 3,592 Target multiple is based on 2021F P/S of Spotify. Other content 260 528 960 KakaoPage and Kakao Japan plan to go public in Korea and Japan, respectively. revenue Piccoma ’s surging transaction value has boosted potential IPO value; target multiple is in line with the 2016 -20 Value 1,127 4,224 9,982 average P/S (8x) of Netflix . Other revenue 537 1,219 1,770 KakaoBank and KakaoPay are expected to go public in 2021; Dunamu is reportedly seeking an IPO Value 21,459 KakaoBank (W20tr), KakaoPay (W18tr), Dunamu (W10tr), Kakao Mobility (W3.4tr) Total 59,595 Avg. P/S multiples for domestic/global peers were used to derive our target price. As the firm ’s businesses are currently in the early growth phases, revenue indicators appear more relevant than Per-share value 142,000 profitability indicators . Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities Research

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Kakao (035720 KS)

Income statement (summarized) Balance sheet (summarized) (Wbn) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F (Wbn) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Revenue 4,157 5,670 6,883 7,991 Current assets 4,463 5,422 6,382 7,868 Cost of revenue 0 0 0 0 Cash & equivalents 2,878 3,300 3,835 4,932 GP 4,157 5,670 6,883 7,991 AR & other receivables 463 640 777 903 SG&A expenses 3,701 4,919 5,788 6,622 Inventory 46 62 76 88 OP (adj.) 456 751 1,095 1,369 Other current assets 1,076 1,420 1,694 1,945 OP 456 751 1,095 1,369 Non-current assets 6,987 7,526 7,965 8,221 Non-operating profit -42 438 213 88 Investments in associates 1,504 2,052 2,491 2,892 Net financial income 5 11 16 24 PP&E 431 381 349 262 Net income from associates 9 285 110 50 Intangible assets 3,352 3,360 3,367 3,285 Pretax profit 414 1,189 1,308 1,457 Total assets 11,954 13,451 14,851 16,593 Income tax 241 294 327 360 Current liabilities 2,628 3,174 3,471 4,006 Profit from continuing operations 173 895 981 1,097 AP & other payables 832 1,135 1,378 1,600 Profit from discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 Short-term financial liabilities 284 279 307 332 NP 173 895 981 1,097 Other current liabilities 1,512 1,760 1,786 2,074 Attributable to owners 156 804 881 985 Non-current liabilities 1,166 1,334 1,469 1,592 Attributable to minority interests 18 92 100 112 Long-term financial liabilities 704 704 704 704 Total comprehensive income 334 895 981 1,097 Other non-current liabilities 462 630 765 888 Attributable to owners 282 756 828 926 Total liabilities 4,526 5,141 5,573 6,231 Attributable to minority interests 52 140 153 171 Equity attributable to owners 6,299 7,090 7,957 8,929 EBITDA 722 993 1,320 1,537 Capital stock 44 44 44 44 FCF 788 1,190 1,179 1,646 Capital surplus 5,833 5,833 5,833 5,833 EBITDA margin (%) 17.4 17.5 19.2 19.2 Retained earnings 316 1,107 1,975 2,946 OP margin (%) 11.0 13.2 15.9 17.1 Minority interests 1,129 1,220 1,321 1,433 Net margin (%) 3.8 14.2 12.8 12.3 Shareholders' equity 7,428 8,310 9,278 10,362

Cash flow statement (summarized) Key valuation metrics/ratios (Wbn) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Operating cash flow 971 1,290 1,279 1,646 P/E (x) 219.3 63.5 58.0 51.8 NP 173 895 981 1,097 P/CF (x) 56.8 45.5 36.7 33.2 Non-cash income/expenses 427 225 411 440 P/B (x) 5.5 7.2 6.4 5.7 Depreciation 176 150 132 87 EV/EBITDA (x) 45.7 49.2 36.5 30.6 Amortization 91 92 93 82 EPS (W) 355 1,811 1,984 2,219 Other 160 -17 186 271 CFPS (W) 1,371 2,525 3,137 3,463 Chg. in working capital 183 438 183 430 BPS (W) 14,237 15,977 17,932 20,121 Chg. in AR & other receivables -60 -90 -72 -66 DPS (W) 30 30 30 30 Chg. in inventory -4 -17 -13 -12 Dividend payout ratio (%) 7.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 Chg. in AP & other payables 104 14 11 10 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Income tax -77 -294 -327 -360 Revenue growth (%) 35.4 36.4 21.4 16.1 Cash flow from investing activities -1,261 -587 -430 -210 EBITDA growth (%) 69.5 37.5 32.9 16.4 Chg. in PP&E -169 -100 -100 0 OP growth (%) 120.3 64.7 45.8 25.0 Chg. in intangible assets -81 -100 -100 0 EPS growth (%) - 410.1 9.6 11.8 Chg. in financial assets -455 -287 -230 -210 AR turnover (x) 20.5 19.4 18.4 18.1 Other -556 -100 0 0 Inventory turnover (x) 87.3 104.7 99.5 97.5 Cash flow from financing activities 1,305 -18 15 13 AP turnover (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Chg. in financial liabilities 209 -5 28 26 ROA (%) 1.7 7.0 6.9 7.0 Chg. in equity 791 0 0 0 ROE (%) 2.7 12.0 11.7 11.7 Dividends -13 -13 -13 -13 ROIC (%) 6.4 25.3 37.2 51.4 Other 318 0 0 0 Debt-to-equity ratio (%) 60.9 61.9 60.1 60.1 Chg. in cash 976 405 535 1,098 Current ratio (%) 169.9 170.8 183.9 196.4 Beginning balance 1,918 2,894 3,300 3,835 Net debt-to-equity ratio (%) -34.9 -41.0 -44.4 -51.9 Ending balance 2,894 3,300 3,835 4,932 Interest coverage ratio (x) 24.1 35.6 51.3 62.4 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research estimates

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Appendix 1

Important disclosures and disclaimers Two-year rating and TP history

Company Date Rating TP (W) (W) Kakao Kakao (035720) 05/06/21 Buy 142,000 150,000 03/17/21 Buy 118,000 01/13/21 Buy 114,000 100,000 08/03/20 Buy 92,000 07/03/20 Buy 74,000 05/08/20 Buy 56,000 50,000 02/13/20 Buy 48,600

01/13/20 Buy 41,000 0 11/07/19 Buy 37,000 May 19 May 20 May 21 07/16/19 Buy 35,400 05/01/19 Buy 34,000

Stock ratings Sector ratings Buy Expected 12-month performance: +20% or greater Overweight Expected to outperform the market over 12 months Trading Buy Expected 12-month performance: +10% to +20% Neutral Expected to perform in line with the market over 12 months Hold Expected 12-month performance: -10% to +10% Underweight Expected to underperform the market over 12 months Sell Expected 12-month performance: -10% or worse

Rating and TP history: Share price (─), TP (▬), Not Rated ( ■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell ( ◆) * Our investment rating is a guide to the expected return of the stock over the next 12 months. * Outside of the official ratings of Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd., analysts may call trading opportunities should technical or short-term material developments arise. * The TP was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on estimates of future earnings. * TP achievement may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

Ratings distribution and investment banking services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Ratings distribution 79.00% 13.00% 7.00% 1.00% Investment banking services 63.16% 31.58% 5.26% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of March 31, 2021)

Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. has acted as a liquidity provider for equity-linked warrants backed by shares of Kakao as an underlying asset; other than this, Mirae Asset Securities has no other special interests in the covered companies.

Analyst certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Securities”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Securities, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading, and private client divisions. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Securities except as otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers This report was prepared by Mirae Asset Securities, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Securities makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws, and accounting principles, and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws or regulations or subject Mirae Asset Securities or any of its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person, and such person shall not be treated as a client of Mirae Asset Securities by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future

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