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DIGITAL PRESS CONFERENCE Health Response Update Dr K Cloete 12 November 2020 © Western Cape Government 2012 | Purpose 1. Update on cases, hospitalisations and mortality – Provincial trends 2. Geographic breakdown – District trends 3. Geographic breakdown – Garden Route focus 4. Update on the acute service platform response 5. Conclusions Update on cases, hospitalisations and mortality – Provincial trends Integrated testing, case, hospitalisation and mortality trends Test positivity positivity Test and daily deaths (%) 3500 175 Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 New diagnoses (by specimen date) Oxygen (x 10kg, 7dMA) 3000 150 Admitted (cases and public sector PUI, 7dMA) Admitted COVID-19 confirmed within 21d prior 2500 Estimated deathsby date of death (7dMA) 125 Officially reported deaths by report date (7d MA) Test positivity (%, 7dMA) 2000 100 1500 75 1000 50 500 25 Daily cases, numbers of patients patients in and numbers ofhospital bulk (x10kg) use oxygen Daily cases, 0 0 01 03 2020 01 04 2020 01 05 2020 01 06 2020 01 07 2020 01 08 2020 01 09 2020 01 10 2020 01 11 2020 60% Percentage change in weekly rolling average of new cases: Data from National Department of 48% 50% 48% 46% 47% Health 44% 42% 44% 39% 40% 40% 37% 30% 27% 23% 20% 19% 18% 20% 14% 13% 14% 7% 10% 5% 4% 3% 4% -1% -1% -1% -2% 0% -4% -4% -6% -6% -10% -10% -15% -16% -17%-18% -20% Using NDOH data , we see that the WC daily report- 4 November 2020: New COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days= 1646 percentage change in weekly average of new cases is 37%. WC daily report- 11 November 2020: New COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days= 1977 If we look at the Western Cape Data Percentage change = 20.1% from the daily report the percentage change in the weekly average of new cases is 20.1% In both cases, the increase is primarily due to an increase in the cases in the Garden Route- specifically: George, Knysna and Bitou. Testing and case numbers more recently Weekly tests by specimen date Test positivity Daily cases by specimen date Hospitalisation Public sector Private sector 1000 1000 19 - 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 Currently admitted with confirmed COVID confirmed with admitted Currently ICU ICU 0 0 18 02 19 03 18 04 18 05 17 06 17 07 16 08 15 09 15 10 14 11 18 02 19 03 18 04 18 05 17 06 17 07 16 08 15 09 15 10 14 11 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Lines are not stacked. PUIs excluded Update on testing 1. Despite the expanded testing criteria the lab turn-around times have been maintained. We will monitor the turn-around times carefully in order to determine the impact of the expanded testing criteria. 2. Antigen testing is now available at Cape Town International Airport for travellers who arrived without having a COVID test. 3. Antigen testing will also be used to monitor specific outbreaks. 4. The testing and surveillance team are continuously reviewing the testing criteria and will advise should further revisions be required. Total Number of Tests Done TOTAL NUMBER OF TESTS DONE Week Total Week 1 21-27 September 2020 7,827 Week 2 28 September - 04 October 2020 8,599 Week 3 05-11 October 2020 8,779 Week 4 12 - 18 October 2020 10,298 Week 5 19 - 25 October 2020 10,081 Week 6 26 October - 1 November 2020 8,674 Week 7 2-8 November 2020 9,167 TOTAL 63,425 © Western Cape Government 2012 | 9 Geographic breakdown – District trends 10 November 2020: Surveillance Huddle 5 point summary 1. Garden Route: increase in cases across all the subdistricts excluding Kannaland. Main subdistricts of concern are George, Knysna and Bitou. Areas of concern in George remain Thembalethu, Pacaltsdorp and the Conville area. In Knysna, cases are widespread. Areas of concern include the town of Knysna and Hornley. Cases in Bitou are also widespread, with Kwanokuthula the main area of concern. Test positivity rates of up to 32% noted. 10 November 2020 Nothing specific to report in Mossel Bay/Oudtshoorn/Hessequa . 2. Planned actions include going out as a collective (EHOs, SAPS, law enforcement, Health); working with the municipalities; SMSs; social media messaging. A district huddle is Surveillance starting tomorrow. Huddle 3. West Coast: Numbers low; Matzikama stabilising; no clusters detected in Bergrivier. 4. Overberg: No clusters across the district. Cases in Theewaterskloof are across all towns. Outbreak in school near Villiersdorp under control 5. Cape Winelands: no clusters detected. Vigilance re students in Stellenbosch remains. Additional points: 1. Increase in cases 7 days vs. previous 7 days; largely due to increases in the rural districts. 2. Nothing new to report from any of the Metro substructures 3. Concern remains regarding lack of adherence to NPIs, COVID fatigue, non-disclosure etc. 4. Holiday makers (intra- and inter-provincial travel) will remain a concern for COVID-19 spread, nationally, especially with the festive season approaching (and possible implications for the healthcare platform when WC resident holiday makers return to the province). Active cases by area 25 000 3400 2800 Cape Winelands Province Eastern 3200 22 500 2600 Cental Karoo Metro Khayelitsha 3000 2400 Northern 2800 Garden Route 20 000 Rural 2200 Tygerberg 2600 Overberg 17 500 2000 Klipfontein 2400 West Coast Mitchells Plain 2200 1800 15 000 Southern 2000 1600 Western 12 500 1800 1400 1600 10 000 1200 1400 1000 1200 7 500 800 1000 800 5 000 600 600 400 2 500 400 200 200 - 0 0 05 Jul 05 Jul 12 19 Jul 26 Jul 21 Jun 21 07 Jun 07 Jun 14 28 Jun 04 04 Oct Oct 11 Oct 18 Oct 25 05 05 Apr Apr 12 Apr 19 Apr 26 06 06 Sep 13 Sep Sep 20 27 Sep 09 Aug 09 02 Aug 02 16 Aug 23 Aug Aug 30 01 Nov 01 Nov 08 15 Mar 15 01 01 Mar 08 Mar Mar 22 29 Mar 03 May 03 10 May 10 May 17 May 24 May 31 12 Jul 12 05 05 Jul 19 Jul Jul 26 05 Jul 05 Jul 12 Jul 19 Jul 26 07 07 Jun Jun 14 21 Jun Jun 28 04 Oct 11 Oct 18 Oct 25 Oct 05 05 Apr 12 Apr Apr 19 Apr 26 06 Sep 06 13 Sep Sep 20 27 Sep 07 07 Jun 14 Jun Jun 21 Jun 28 02 02 Aug Aug 09 16 Aug Aug 23 30 Aug 04 04 Oct Oct 11 Oct 18 Oct 25 05 Apr 12 Apr 19 Apr 26 Apr 08 Nov 08 01 01 Nov 13 Sep 13 06 Sep 06 20 Sep 27 Sep 01 Mar 01 Mar 15 08 08 Mar Mar 22 Mar 29 02 Aug 02 09 Aug 16 Aug 23 Aug Aug 30 08 Nov 08 03 03 May 10 May May 17 24 May May 31 Nov 01 22 Mar 22 01 Mar 01 Mar 08 Mar 15 29 Mar 03 May 03 May 10 May 17 May 24 31 May In the Metro, the 7 day moving average line is crossing the 14 day moving average line. This may continue upwards indicating an increase in cases. At sub-district level, Khayelitsha is showing an increase in cases. We will have to watch this closely over the next few days. Rural is showing an increase in the 7 day moving average of cases. This is driven by George, which continues to show a sharp increase in the 7 and 14 day moving averages of new cases. The Overberg appears to be stabilizing after an outbreak, but the 7 day moving average is pointing upwards, and will have to be watched closely. Triangulating with wastewater – Cape Town Metro WEEK 46 SAMRC COVID- 19 AND WASTEWATER EARLY WARNING SYSTEM update City of Cape Town – expanded to 24 wastewater treatment plants Levels remain relatively low across the city where now testing all treatment plants; slightly higher levels in Green Point, Camps Bay, *Note: RNA copies categories Melkbos, Simonstown, Wildevoëlvlei, Mitchells Plain adjusted weekly, according to the inter quartile range. & Borcherds Quarry. Triangulating with wastewater – Breede Valley Week 46 SAMRC COVID- 19 AND WASTEWATER EARLY WARNING SYSTEM update Breede Valley Municipality – 4 wastewater treatment plants Levels remain low across all wastewater treatment plants in Breede Valley SAMRC will launch a public dashboard of wastewater results on Monday 16 November Geographic breakdown – Garden Route focus Active cases in Garden Route since 1 September Bitou Hessequa Kannaland Knysna Mossel Bay Oudtshoorn George 200 400 150 300 100 200 50 100 George cases Active 0 0 Active cases all subdistricts except George except subdistricts all cases Active 1-Oct 5-Oct 9-Oct 2-Nov 6-Nov 25-Oct 13-Oct 17-Oct 21-Oct 29-Oct 10-Nov Garden Route Facilities % proportion positive Facilities with high test proportion positive 28 October 2020- 11 November 2020 (12% cut-off) Facility % Proportion positive Positive tests Negative tests Conville CDC 26.76% 79 216 Thembalethu CDC 26.88% 50 136 George Hospital 18.40% 39 173 Knysna Hospital 25.83% 31 89 Pacaltsdorp Clinic 29.82% 34 80 Kwanokuthula CDC 25.71% 18 52 Uniondale Hospital 15.87% 10 53 Knysna CDC 22.00% 11 39 Khayelethu CHC 23.91% 11 35 Riversdale Clinic 14.63% 6 35 Kranshoek Clinic 44.44% 8 10 Plettenberg Bay Clinic 44.44% 12 15 New Horizon Clinic 38.89% 7 11 Alma CDC 20.00% 9 36 Garden Route: Hessequa – 4 new cases on 11 Mossel Bay- 17 November 2020- George – 95 data from the teams on the Knysna/Bitou – 38 ground Kannaland – 0 Oudtshoorn - 3 • Surveillance using available data and on the ground knowledge.
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