Snet 170 Climate Change Uncertaintity

INTRODUCTION Understanding Uncertainty in the Context of Climate Change espite the climate change burden of its adverse impacts. climate related uncertainty. This D deniers, there has been Communities exposed to the adverse issue is replete with the insights of incontrovertible scientific evidence impacts of climate change are these stakeholders on how they to prove that anthropogenic activity generally composed of poor and understand, experience, interpret has indeed triggered serious changes marginalized people who have the and are impacted by climate change in the earth's climate with far– smallest carbon footprint, yet related uncertainty. reaching implications. According to because their livelihoods IPCC 5th Assessment report (2014), predominantly depend upon natural These round tables drew heavily South Asian countries are already resources, they tend to lose out the from the experience of the experiencing the impacts of climate most due to the uncertainty caused precariousness faced by at-risk change in the form of altered by climate change. communities in the Kachchh, precipitation patterns, high rate of Mumbai, and Sundarbans areas of sea level rise, and extreme India due to climate change related temperatures, all of which threaten uncertainty. Among the key lessons the lives, livelihoods, health and emerging from this dialogue is that wellbeing of about one–fourth of uncertainty for local communities is human population that lives in this not just an inconvenience in the form region. of extended periods of erratic weather but an existential threat to While there is overwhelming their livelihoods. This uncertainty scientific evidence establishing a destroys the ecological resources causal link between anthropogenic such as mangroves which not only activity and climate change, there is provide India's coastline with a a degree of uncertainty on the protective cover but are also central precise impacts of this phenomenon to the livelihoods of such at-risk on the environment and human communities. Therefore, any society. The uncertainty induced by solutions to the problem must be climate change poses a threat to the rooted in the local milieu of such ecology, human settlements, communities and must take into biodiversity and economy. Greater account their perspectives. uncertainty makes the prediction of This issue of Southasiadisasters.net extreme climate events like is titled "Understanding Uncertainty: Most importantly, this issue covers droughts, floods and extreme Views from Kachchh, Mumbai, and a wide range of themes that are temperatures tougher which in turn Sundarbans" and focuses on the central to the dialogue on climate causes problems for preparation theme of climate related uncertainty. change related uncertainty. For against such contingencies. This is This issue draws heavily from the instance, themes as diverse as why, climate change related work of the Research Council of distress migration, focus on rural uncertainty has become a great Norway (RCN) funded project women's employment, the need for challenge to be addressed by 'Climate Change, Uncertainty and more participatory environmental planners, policy-makers and at-risk Transformation'. This project risk assessments and the need for communities. spawned three round tables recently contextualization of solutions have held at Gandhinagar, Mumbai, and been discussed here. It is hoped that One of the greatest ironies, nay Kolkata to understand the through this issue, concrete action on travesties of this climate change perspectives of various stakeholders climate change related uncertainty associated uncertainty is that people such as policy makers, takes place in this country. who are least responsible for this administrators, climate scientists, – Mihir R. Bhatt problem bear a disproportionate activists and community leaders on 2 southasiadisasters.net May 2018 CLIMATE CHANGE AND UNCERTAINTY Tackling Uncertainty in a Changing Climate: Lessons from Gujarat, Mumbai and the Sundarbans rticles in this special issue ecosystems, or rapid social, economic how difficult this is in practice, not A show how uncertainties are or political changes. at least bridging the gap between 'everywhere': It runs through policy the very different understandings of and planning processes as well as While most people will have no 'the above' actors (planners, every other aspect of people's daily choice but to live with such policymakers and modellers), and lives. Climate change-related uncertainty, often at great cost, the 'below' actors (people at local uncertainties are receiving particular planners and policymakers have and community levels). attention. For example, there is traditionally tried to isolate and increasing uncertainty about rainfall reduce (and ideally eliminate) it. This special issue also highlights the patterns in Kachchh and new Climate change makes this aim possible strategies to overcome concerns about floods, changes in increasingly unrealistic, given the these challenges. One is to bring the storm frequency and intensity in the high and increasing uncertainty in voices from communities, typically Sundarbans, and increasing floods in climate change model projections, let excluded from formal processes, to Mumbai. However, for people alone the impacts they will have at the fore. Bose (this volume) living in these areas, climate-related sub-national and local levels. Recent documents efforts using an approach uncertainties are but one of many. approaches have therefore tried to called photo voice. This involves Some of them are new — like the turn this around, recognising that providing people with cameras possibility of increasing floods in uncertainty is unavoidable and while facilitating linkages 'upwards' Kachchh — but in most other cases, focusing instead on the robustness, to bring their message to policy climate change may merely resilience and adaptive capacity to a audiences, from the local panchayat exacerbate existing uncertainty wide range of possible future and implementers through to policy around incomes and livelihoods, climates. This special issue shows makers, modellers and planners. The Photo: Shibaji Bose. May 2018 southasiadisasters.net 3 Similarly, floods in Mumbai are today mainly tackled as an issue of managing water flows, creating barriers to protect the population. However, current problems are better seen as symptoms of much deeper political and governance challenges, such as unregulated construction, lack of treatment of solid waste, lack of coherent urban planning, and the disappearance of natural buffers such as floodplains and mangroves (Adam, Parthasarathy, and Narayanan, this volume). Thus, unless these underlying or root causes are tackled, floods are going to continue Photo: Shibaji Bose. to hit the poorest and most Long hours depleting fish catch, Sundarbans. marginalised groups hardest: they aim is to bring marginalised voices groups to, for example, improve live in the least protected areas, are to those who have the power to access to credits, seed banks, the most exposed to water-borne make changes. So far the project has training, and insurance and advisory diseases, have the least own capacity had state level round tables in services. to cope and adapt, and the least Gandhinagar, Mumbai, and Kolkata; support from the state. On top of the final journey is to bring these Tackling climate change in a context this, they are subject to new voices to policy makers at the of increasing uncertainty will require uncertainties created through the central level in Delhi. small and gradual changes, working rapidly expanding city, with fears of within existing systems, while not being relocated. A second important area is to better losing sight of the need for deeper, recognise and integrate local structural and transformative The examples above show that knowledge, skills and experiences. changes. In the Sundarbans and while challenges are considerable. Duff (this volume) shows the Kachchh, for example, the At the same time, so are the possible importance of learning from immediate priority is the need to opportunities: if the attention to vernacular architecture to make the adapt livelihoods to increasing climate change can provide entry built environment more adaptive to uncertainty, focusing on the factors points to more integrated urban uncertain futures. The Kachchh and that make people vulnerable planning, such as a focus on 'smart Sundarbans cases both show the (Ghosh, Srivastava and Mehta). To cities' in Mumbai (Adam, importance of making better use of address this properly will mean Parthasarathy, and Narayanan, this the wealth of dynamic local going much further, however. In volume), it may give hope for better knowledge and experience that Kachchh, livelihood uncertainties, integration of vulnerability exists in both observing and tackling including climate-related ones, are mapping and pro-poor adaptation changes, including strategies to underpinned by problems associated interventions. Similarly, in diversify livelihoods. And third, the with rapid economic and industrial Sundarbans and Kachchh (Ghosh; case study by the Self-Employed development and its impacts on Srivastava and Mehta, this volume), Women Association, SEWA fragile and increasingly threatened forging alliances between those on (Bhatnagar, this volume) shows the ecosystems, with highly unequal the ground and policymakers may importance of supporting and resource access, in particular land. give new openings in policy strengthening local

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