INTRODUCTION Understanding Uncertainty in the Context of Climate Change

espite the climate change burden of its adverse impacts. climate related uncertainty. This D deniers, there has been Communities exposed to the adverse issue is replete with the insights of incontrovertible scientific evidence impacts of climate change are these stakeholders on how they to prove that anthropogenic activity generally composed of poor and understand, experience, interpret has indeed triggered serious changes marginalized people who have the and are impacted by climate change in the earth's climate with far– smallest carbon footprint, yet related uncertainty. reaching implications. According to because their livelihoods IPCC 5th Assessment report (2014), predominantly depend upon natural These round tables drew heavily South Asian countries are already resources, they tend to lose out the from the experience of the experiencing the impacts of climate most due to the uncertainty caused precariousness faced by at-risk change in the form of altered by climate change. communities in the Kachchh, precipitation patterns, high rate of Mumbai, and Sundarbans areas of sea level rise, and extreme India due to climate change related temperatures, all of which threaten uncertainty. Among the key lessons the lives, livelihoods, health and emerging from this dialogue is that wellbeing of about one–fourth of uncertainty for local communities is human population that lives in this not just an inconvenience in the form region. of extended periods of erratic weather but an existential threat to While there is overwhelming their livelihoods. This uncertainty scientific evidence establishing a destroys the ecological resources causal link between anthropogenic such as mangroves which not only activity and climate change, there is provide India's coastline with a a degree of uncertainty on the protective cover but are also central precise impacts of this phenomenon to the livelihoods of such at-risk on the environment and human communities. Therefore, any society. The uncertainty induced by solutions to the problem must be climate change poses a threat to the rooted in the local milieu of such ecology, human settlements, communities and must take into biodiversity and economy. Greater account their perspectives. uncertainty makes the prediction of This issue of Southasiadisasters.net extreme climate events like is titled "Understanding Uncertainty: Most importantly, this issue covers droughts, floods and extreme Views from Kachchh, Mumbai, and a wide range of themes that are temperatures tougher which in turn Sundarbans" and focuses on the central to the dialogue on climate causes problems for preparation theme of climate related uncertainty. change related uncertainty. For against such contingencies. This is This issue draws heavily from the instance, themes as diverse as why, climate change related work of the Research Council of distress migration, focus on rural uncertainty has become a great Norway (RCN) funded project women's employment, the need for challenge to be addressed by 'Climate Change, Uncertainty and more participatory environmental planners, policy-makers and at-risk Transformation'. This project risk assessments and the need for communities. spawned three round tables recently contextualization of solutions have held at Gandhinagar, Mumbai, and been discussed here. It is hoped that One of the greatest ironies, nay Kolkata to understand the through this issue, concrete action on travesties of this climate change perspectives of various stakeholders climate change related uncertainty associated uncertainty is that people such as policy makers, takes place in this country. who are least responsible for this administrators, climate scientists, – Mihir R. Bhatt problem bear a disproportionate activists and community leaders on

2 southasiadisasters.net May 2018 CLIMATE CHANGE AND UNCERTAINTY Tackling Uncertainty in a Changing Climate: Lessons from Gujarat, Mumbai and the Sundarbans

rticles in this special issue ecosystems, or rapid social, economic how difficult this is in practice, not A show how uncertainties are or political changes. at least bridging the gap between 'everywhere': It runs through policy the very different understandings of and planning processes as well as While most people will have no 'the above' actors (planners, every other aspect of people's daily choice but to live with such policymakers and modellers), and lives. Climate change-related uncertainty, often at great cost, the 'below' actors (people at local uncertainties are receiving particular planners and policymakers have and community levels). attention. For example, there is traditionally tried to isolate and increasing uncertainty about rainfall reduce (and ideally eliminate) it. This special issue also highlights the patterns in Kachchh and new Climate change makes this aim possible strategies to overcome concerns about floods, changes in increasingly unrealistic, given the these challenges. One is to bring the storm frequency and intensity in the high and increasing uncertainty in voices from communities, typically Sundarbans, and increasing floods in climate change model projections, let excluded from formal processes, to Mumbai. However, for people alone the impacts they will have at the fore. Bose (this volume) living in these areas, climate-related sub-national and local levels. Recent documents efforts using an approach uncertainties are but one of many. approaches have therefore tried to called photo voice. This involves Some of them are new — like the turn this around, recognising that providing people with cameras possibility of increasing floods in uncertainty is unavoidable and while facilitating linkages 'upwards' Kachchh — but in most other cases, focusing instead on the robustness, to bring their message to policy climate change may merely resilience and adaptive capacity to a audiences, from the local panchayat exacerbate existing uncertainty wide range of possible future and implementers through to policy around incomes and livelihoods, climates. This special issue shows makers, modellers and planners. The Photo: Shibaji Bose.

May 2018 southasiadisasters.net 3 Similarly, floods in Mumbai are today mainly tackled as an issue of managing water flows, creating barriers to protect the population. However, current problems are better seen as symptoms of much deeper political and governance challenges, such as unregulated construction, lack of treatment of solid waste, lack of coherent urban planning, and the disappearance of natural buffers such as floodplains and mangroves (Adam, Parthasarathy, and Narayanan, this volume). Thus, unless these underlying or root causes are tackled, floods are going to continue Photo: Shibaji Bose. to hit the poorest and most Long hours depleting fish catch, Sundarbans. marginalised groups hardest: they aim is to bring marginalised voices groups to, for example, improve live in the least protected areas, are to those who have the power to access to credits, seed banks, the most exposed to water-borne make changes. So far the project has training, and insurance and advisory diseases, have the least own capacity had state level round tables in services. to cope and adapt, and the least Gandhinagar, Mumbai, and Kolkata; support from the state. On top of the final journey is to bring these Tackling climate change in a context this, they are subject to new voices to policy makers at the of increasing uncertainty will require uncertainties created through the central level in Delhi. small and gradual changes, working rapidly expanding city, with fears of within existing systems, while not being relocated. A second important area is to better losing sight of the need for deeper, recognise and integrate local structural and transformative The examples above show that knowledge, skills and experiences. changes. In the Sundarbans and while challenges are considerable. Duff (this volume) shows the Kachchh, for example, the At the same time, so are the possible importance of learning from immediate priority is the need to opportunities: if the attention to vernacular architecture to make the adapt livelihoods to increasing climate change can provide entry built environment more adaptive to uncertainty, focusing on the factors points to more integrated urban uncertain futures. The Kachchh and that make people vulnerable planning, such as a focus on 'smart Sundarbans cases both show the (Ghosh, Srivastava and Mehta). To cities' in Mumbai (Adam, importance of making better use of address this properly will mean Parthasarathy, and Narayanan, this the wealth of dynamic local going much further, however. In volume), it may give hope for better knowledge and experience that Kachchh, livelihood uncertainties, integration of vulnerability exists in both observing and tackling including climate-related ones, are mapping and pro-poor adaptation changes, including strategies to underpinned by problems associated interventions. Similarly, in diversify livelihoods. And third, the with rapid economic and industrial Sundarbans and Kachchh (Ghosh; case study by the Self-Employed development and its impacts on Srivastava and Mehta, this volume), Women Association, SEWA fragile and increasingly threatened forging alliances between those on (Bhatnagar, this volume) shows the ecosystems, with highly unequal the ground and policymakers may importance of supporting and resource access, in particular land. give new openings in policy strengthening local agency. While Without tackling these underlying processes. climate change worsens existing issues, responses to climate change – Dr. Lars Otto Naess, uncertainties around yields and will at best be short term 'sticking Research Fellow, Institute of Development Studies, UK returns, SEWA supports women plasters'.

4 southasiadisasters.net May 2018 CLIMATE CHANGE AND DRR Bridging the Gaps in Uncertainty and Climate Change

n India, local people, planners and building to understand and capture middle and above by organising Ipolicy makers regularly confront uncertainty. These efforts, however, three round tables in Gandhinagar, climatic shocks and stressors such as rarely take into account how local Mumbai and Kolkata in January 2018 cyclones, floods, droughts, changing people – particularly those living at bringing together perspectives and rainfall patterns and extreme the margins – make sense of and experiences of government officials, temperatures. Yet, the knowledge cope with uncertainty. Often there academics, practitioners and activists. about the scale and impacts of these is a wide gap between how These built on an earlier round table changes remain deeply uncertain. uncertainty is understood and organised in Oslo in August 2017. This is particularly true at the local experienced from 'below' by the The aim was to better understand level, where climate related lived experiences of local people, the way climate change and uncertainties combined with how it is conceptualised and uncertainty are experienced and accelerated capitalist growth represented from 'above' by climate understood by diverse stakeholders trajectories often exacerbate social scientists and experts and how the in order to explore ways to foster and political inequities and the 'middle' — civil society, NGOs, transformative, socially just and vulnerabilities of marginalised academics — can potentially inclusive development in the context communities. While the uncertainty function as brokers between the of growing climate change associated with climate change is 'below' and 'above'. uncertainty. often considered to be a 'super wicked problem' by scientists and The Research Council of Norway All the round tables were rooted in policy makers, climate experts funded project 'Climate Change, the context of their specific sites. The (policy makers and scientists) Uncertainty and Transformation'1 Oslo meeting addressed overarching continue to draw on quantitative sought to bridge the diverse contextual issues whereas the other assessments, models and scenario perspectives between the below, sessions built on the challenges and Photo: Shibaji Bose. Kanmervillage as seen from Kanmer hill, Kachchh, Gujarat.

May 2018 southasiadisasters.net 5 contexts of the specific sites. All the middle and below in order to assessments. They also need to round tables began with a powerful promote pro-poor adaptation put the needs and interests of photo voice presentation and long-term development marginalised citizens upfront, highlighting the precariousness of planning. Better training and rather than exclude them. local people to climate change education on the limits and • Despite much advance in state related uncertainties (e.g. erosion of opportunities with models can level climate change policies lands in the Sundarbans due to sea improve decision making and action plans, much more level rise or the changing nature of • There are still significant data could be done to improve pro- rainfall and droughts and their gaps in understanding climate poor adaptation and the impacts on livelihoods in Kachchh) change impacts across the sites. strengthening of local and how they make sense of, live Data gaps also exist regarding ecosystems and biodiversity. with and adapt to them. These local people's coping strategies Various forms of knowledge uncertainties are further and understandings. Official and experiences, including compounded by wider socio responses to climate change scientific, technical, economic changes (e.g. port have not built on local level administrative, and every day development in Urban/ Mumbai) knowledge and experiences. practices need to come together which often destroy key ecological There is no one size fits all and to plan for alternatives. The resources such as mangroves which further research is required to state should facilitate dialogues both protect the vulnerable coastline understand ground level between policymakers across and are also key to the livelihoods realities. Advances in attribution scales and sectors, academics, and wellbeing of the local science will be important to NGOs, CBOs as well as local communities. improve disaster management. communities. • Environmental and social impact • More support is also required The following key lessons emerged assessments that feed into to enhance the resilience of local from the round tables: decision making processes need communities to disasters and • It is important to challenge the to become more participatory climatic events such as dominant positivist and less exclusionary. heatwaves and floods. understanding of uncertainty Transparency and accountability Interventions need to focus on that dominates science and to all stakeholders, especially strengthening livelihoods, local policy making. Uncertainty will marginalised people who lack experimentation with accessible be understood differently at voice, are key. Currently, these technologies (in housing and different levels (above, middle processes are often closed and shelter, water, energy), resource and below) and multi-sectoral opaque. conservation and community and interdisciplinary ways are • The so called 'smart' approaches empowerment. required to understand its need to pay more attention to • A clear pathway for impacts and manifestations. long term ecological issues (e.g. transformation based on Social science aspects concerning flood proofing in Mumbai) and knowing the 'certainty of socio-political pathways, gender incorporate climate risk uncertainty' needs to be charted dynamics and site specific and shared with diverse vulnerabilities of different The Research Council of stakeholders social groups and how these Norway funded project • Bridging asymmetries of power interact with climate related 'Climate change, uncertainty and stakeholders, policy makers, uncertainties need to be and citizens is a prime concern. and transformation' sought included in mainstream debates. Good case studies of successes • It is important for policy makers to bridge the diverse and failures can be deployed to to embrace uncertainty in perspectives between the develop better transformation decision making. While they below, middle and above by strategies. feel this might paralyse decision organising three round – Dr. Lyla Mehta, making, it is important to find tables in Gandhinagar, Institute of Development Studies, UK and Norwegian University of Life optimal ways to communicate Mumbai and Kolkata. uncertainty across the above, Sciences, Norway

1 https://www.ids.ac.uk/project/climate-change-uncertainty-and-tranformation

6 southasiadisasters.net May 2018 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Climate Change Uncertainty in Dryland Kachchh, Gujarat

n a summer evening in June O2016, I met Baubhai, a farmer in Rapar taluka, whose family has been farming for generations. As we talked about the changes in havaman (term used for weather in Gujarati), he told me how agriculture was becoming difficult with irregular seasonal cycles and changes in temperature. He lamented that – winters are becoming warmer and we get heavy spells of rains during monsoons, only God knows what is happening! Baubhai was among the many people I met during my visits to Kachchh (also spelled as Kutch) who are witnessing the effects of climate change uncertainties, often vocalised through the impact on livelihoods. Photo: Maxmillan Martin and Shilpi Srivastava. on these systems. Drylands constitute saline deserts (Greater and Little Climate uncertainty refers to the about 40 percent of the earth's land Rann of Kachchh). A dynamic inability to predict the scale, surface and support 38 percent of the ecosystem, Kachchh is highly intensity and impact of climate human population2. Drylands are vulnerable to climate change change on human and natural highly variable ecosystems impacts. In addition to the increase environments. Within climate characterised by low, erratic rainfall. in erratic patterns of rainfall, science, it is often treated as a 'super Pastoralism, agro-pastoralism and Kachchh is also witnessing sea level wicked' problem that needs to be rain-fed agriculture are dominant rise and coastal erosion leading to tamed or controlled but for people livelihoods of these regions. Despite higher incidence of salinity ingress who are at the forefront of climate being highly dynamic ecosystems, and invasion of prosopis juliflora change, uncertainty has always been drylands are extremely vulnerable to (invasive weed). These will have a part and parcel of their lives. As climate change impacts. With long term effects on the ecology and part of the Research Council of changes in the hydrological cycle, it livelihoods of this region. Norway funded project Climate is suggested that climate change will Change, Uncertainty and increase aridity and lead to greater Uncertainty has been a part of life Transformation1, we are investigating strain on water resources in these in this semi-arid region whereby these perspectives to arrive at more region thus affecting the lives and people have historically lived with inclusive and socially just adaptation livelihoods of the resource ecological changes related to rainfall responses. dependent populations. and droughts. They have relied on indigenous knowledge systems and Nowhere are the impacts of climate In dryland Kachchh, droughts and diverse coping strategies such as change felt more acutely than in the poor rainfall are a defining part of changes in cropping patterns, marginal environments (such as the the ecological landscape of the livelihoods diversification, and drylands) which are home to region. Located in the north-western migration to cope with these ecologically sensitive ecosystems, part of Gujarat, about 51 percent of changes. However, what they are not and vulnerable populations that rely the area in Kachchh is covered by attuned to is the erratic and

1 http://www.ids.ac.uk/project/climate-change-uncertainty-and-tranformation 2 https://www.unibas.ch/en/News-Events/News/Uni-Research/The-Impact-of-Climate-Change-on-Drylands.html (Accessed 20 March 2018).

May 2018 southasiadisasters.net 7 unpredictable nature of these The effects of ecological uncertainty Though climate change concerns are changes such as high incidence of are further amplified by changes in increasingly being mainstreamed in freak events like flash floods, rapid the political economy of this rapidly policy making in Gujarat through changes in seasonal cycles. The sheer industrialising district. The various projects , the top down frequency of these events is limiting diversification options are few modus operandi tends to make local their ability to cope with these rapid especially as capital-led development level impacts fairly 'invisible' in the changes. While farmers are is increasing the vulnerability of the policy discourses. For more inclusive struggling with depleting rural populations due to intense development, it is essential that local groundwater tables, salinity ingress pressure on land and water level perspectives on resource uses and and uncertain rainfall patterns, resources. For example, rapid rights, adaptation, and livelihoods pastoralists are facing the pressures industrialisation along the coastline are mainstreamed into climate due to loss of grazing lands and has reduced the access of pastoralists adaptation measures in the state. increased incidence of livestock and fishers harming their – Dr. Shilpi Srivastava, diseases due to warmer livelihoods, thus making them more Research Fellow, Institute of temperatures. vulnerable to climate shocks. Development Studies, UK

POLICY SUPPORT Taking the Voices of the Community into the Realm of Policy Making

Round Table on Bridging the Divide on Disaster Risk, Climate Change and Uncertainty: Engaging with Transdisciplinary Perspectives, January 19, 2018, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

ore often than not raising a to adapt to the ever changing of 'voice' proposed by Lundy, et al. Mvoice is not enough by itself. environment. in 2007, which describes four key For instance, it is imperative for components that enable participants vulnerable communities that live The Research Council of Norway to raise their voice for the betterment on the margins of society's funded project 'Climate Change, of their challenges. consciousness to not only raise Uncertainty and Transformation', their voices but also to make them realizing the importance of these The first component is 'space,' which heard to the people whose factors, used a participatory action refers to participants' opportunities decisions determine their exposure research technique called photo to express their views regarding to risks and their daily struggles voice. The method follows the model climate change. Site wise facilitation

8 southasiadisasters.net May 2018 influence how local decision makers work on mutually agreed actions to address identified problems.

For the third and fourth component, the project held a series of round tables in Ahmedabad, Mumbai and Kolkata to reach the views of the communities' perception of climate change to a varied group of key stakeholders—academia, policy makers and civil society. It was interesting to note that the stakeholders discussed the perceptions of the communities while putting forth their own views. In some cases the views matched and in in the remote villages in Kachchh, and outside the community. The some others the views differed. But the fishers in Mumbai and in the third component is 'audience,' which the crucial gain was that the project rapidly sinking and eroding islands refers to the target audience (the was able to bring in the voices of the of the Sundarbans played a key role local panchayat and the local community into the public arena. The in supporting communities to implementers), who support project plans to take the deliberations collectively express their views, by implementation of the communities' from the state round tables on the providing them cameras and demands and who can link groups communities perceptions to the facilitating linkages with target to the higher ups—the policy central policy makers through a audiences. The second component is makers, the modelers and planners. national round table planned in the 'voice' in terms of articulating their The fourth component of the model later part of 2018. views through photographs within is 'influence,' where participants – Shibaji Bose, Consultant, Future Health System (FHS), India

DRR AND URBAN PLANNING Climate Change, Uncertainty and Urban Development: The Case of Mumbai nthropogenic climate change exposure to the risks of cyclonic environmental degradation and Aitself is a reality, but its actual storms along the west coast. Oceanic encroachment on the commons impacts, patterns and trends remain warming and El Nino driven effects result in severe loss of livelihoods characterised by uncertainty. Models make the monsoon increasingly especially in the informal and and scenarios are imperfect, and variable, uncertain and resource dependent sectors. The methodologies and tools are unable unpredictable. crisis of livelihoods, constant threats to entirely capture the complexity of of eviction, housing problems, and rapidly evolving climate and Adding to the climatic uncertainty ineffective disaster governance add weather changes across different is poor quality urban governance, to the woes of uncertainty for the scales. Studies predict that extreme high levels of social, political, and region and its population. Against events are likely to increase further economic inequality, and insufficient this backdrop, top down urban in the Mumbai metropolitan region. and deteriorating urban development models and planning As a coastal city, Mumbai already infrastructure. In combination, they trajectories encourage rapid and faces risks from storm surges, sea tend to exacerbate risks and haphazard development that do not level rise, and coastal erosion. In vulnerability for all residents, with address the causes and consequences future, the region is expected to disproportionate effects on the poor. of growing uncertainties. As a result, witness more intense rainfall events, The lack of equitable economic significant opportunities for a increase in wet spells, and further growth, and persistent positive transformation are lost.

May 2018 southasiadisasters.net 9 Flooding at Moregaon after closure of pumping station gate.

The imagination of transformative most common hazard. The city is in multiple realms (ecological, urban development and planning is, also ranked consistently among the livelihood, and knowledge), and the however, constrained by an inability most vulnerable cities in the world perception of uncertainty by diverse to consider the large informal sector prone to climate change impacts and actors (experts, lay people, activists, and the high level of dependence on disasters. Uncertainty is considerably academics, and bureaucrats). the natural resources for livelihoods. enhanced for the large population Transformative urban governance is In addition, ecological systems that sections that are subject to poor envisaged as a process that can act as a natural defence against living conditions, live in marginal modify and mobilize institutions flooding, sea level rise, and other environments, are economically and agencies across sectors and hazards remain side–lined in most excluded and uncared for by state scales to better grasp the interplay planning approaches. They are also agencies. of water related uncertainties with constrained by a narrow Mumbai's political economy, understanding of economic Narratives from the field reveal that governance, and institutional development, which undervalues the state agencies are either not very dynamics. Ultimately, this process role of the environment in responsive, or are prone to narrow should lead to a considerable vulnerability reduction and disaster technical, rather than socially reduction in the multiple risks and risk management. inclusive flood management uncertainties that the most solutions. Our research, discussions, vulnerable people face. The need for The Research Council of Norway and a round table with stakeholders co-produced hybrid forms of sponsored project 'Climate Change, suggest that uncertainty needs to be knowledge, plural perspectives and Uncertainty and Transformation' firmly addressed and incorporated multiple response options in this seeks new pathways of into urban and disaster governance process cannot be over- understanding and responding to processes. Going beyond the ideas emphasized. climate change uncertainty among of resilience and adaptation, the – D. Parthasarathy, Convener, different sectors and actors in research underscores the imperative Climate Studies Inter-disciplinary Mumbai. Among the range of of a larger process of transformation Programme; and Professor, Department of Humanities, and Social disaster risks that affect Mumbai, that can better understand and Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology chronic monsoonal flooding is the interpret the nature of uncertainty Bombay, India

Based on research inputs from Hans Nicolai Adam, NC Narayanan, Alankar, Synne Movik, Lyla Mehta, Mihir Bhatt, and Shibaji Bose.

10 southasiadisasters.net May 2018 CLIMATE CHANGE AND DRR Climate Change and Uncertainty in Delta Areas

limate change and its projection of 15% increase in intense In terms of health as an indicator, Cconsequences are expansive flooding in the coastal regions by frequent flooding in last two decades and all encompassing, and the South IMD. The region of Bay of Bengal has significantly impacted the health Asia region is one of the worst hit alone has a 20% increase in cyclonic of the Indian population in two regions of the world. According to events due to sea level rise and ways. First, there are direct impacts IPCC 5th Assessment report, South increasing sea surface temperature. at the time of disaster in terms of Asian countries are already mortality, increasing water borne experiencing the impacts of climate Often neglected in the discourse on diseases, mental trauma and change in the form of altered climate change at the national level destroying health infrastructures. precipitation patterns, high rate of is its impact on the poorest and most The second and longer term impacts sea level rise, and extreme vulnerable in society; those who are are in terms of depleting significant temperatures, all of which threaten least responsible for it. Changes in social determinants of health like the region's life, livelihood, health extreme weather events and the livelihood, shelter and social and wellbeing. Within the context of spread of climate sensitive vector conditions. Together these impacts regions' socio–cultural and political borne diseases are increasingly are creating a vicious cycle starting dynamics, and rapid urbanizations, affecting the morbidity and of depleting agricultural products, these extreme climatic events will mortality in the region. Access to hampering market availability, loss likely be very disruptive and India resources to deal with climate change of household assets and is one of the classic examples of such impacts is sensitive to societal indebtedness, migration and challenges. intersections like ethnicity, gender, malnutrition and related class and other identities, making the morbidities. According to World As per the statistics provided by economically disadvantaged even Banks' 2009 report, India has 70% National Disaster Management more vulnerable. Hence, poor (aged between 6 months to 5 years) Authority, Government of India, 40 people, members of minority malnourished children as well as million hectares of India's total land groups, women, children, elderly, 55% malnourished women and 25% mass is prone to cyclone, tsunamis people with chronic diseases and malnourished men. and river erosion. 7516 kms of disabilities, those residing in highly populated coastline are at a vulnerable deltaic areas in India with Even though the effects of climate greater risk especially the river a high prevalence of climate-related change across the region and across basins of north and north–eastern diseases, and workers exposed to social and environmental systems states affecting more than 30 million extreme heat or increased weather are likely to be uneven depending people on average each year. As per variability become the most upon already existing structural the IPCC 5th assessment report (2014) vulnerable to the adverse impacts of vulnerabilities, it is very likely that and a series of studies done by climate change. impoverished regions will bear a Indian Meteorological Department disproportionate burden of these (IMD), mean sea level rise of 15–38 changes due to their structural cm is projected along India's coast inequalities as well as the limited by the mid- 21st century and of 46– capacity of their populations to 59 cm by 2100. Similarly, IPCC 4th adapt and respond to climate assessment report (2007) pointed to change. Therefore, efforts to the alarming rate of the melting and respond, mitigate, or adapt to eventual disappearance of climate change will need to address Himalayan glaciers. The issues of equity and social justice, combination of sea level rise and innovative approaches—cooperative melting glaciers poses a greater risk responses and new forms of of flooding in the coastal plains in governance. which the rural areas and cities are – Upasona Ghosh, equally vulnerable. In addition to Indian Institute of Health Management frequent flooding there is a Research (IIHMR), Kolkata, India Photo: Shibaji Bose.

May 2018 southasiadisasters.net 11 WOMEN AND CLIMATE CHANGE Women, Livelihoods and Climate Related Risks

hile other farmers struggled For over 4 decades, the Self households in India with their efforts "Wwith challenging climate Employed Women's Association being critical to the well-being of the conditions and their crop was (SEWA) has been working with its household and the farm. infested with worms; I could reap a rural members to help them Comprehending this SEWA's good cotton harvest thanks to being improve their livelihood through agriculture model emphasizes on — taught by SEWA's Farmer Field various initiatives in technical developing the farm as an enterprise; School how to prepare organic training, microfinance, market shifting the focus from mere subsistence fertilizer. Application of this linkages and natural resource to viability and profitability; fertilizer in my field has mitigated management, across a number of propagating solutions to mitigate the worm infestation and enhanced trades. climate related risks; and ensuring the quality and quantity of my yield. adequate supply of water even in Today farmers from neighbouring As a large number of SEWA's rural arid zones to suffice the domestic and villages are also commissioning members hail from the agricultural farming needs of the women. preparation of this Panchamrut...." sector, the thrust has been to – Umayaben Rajubhai Rathod understand and work around the With global warming badly hitting (Kalyanpur Village-Surendranagar nexus between women, agriculture, the agriculture sector — farmers are District) water and climate. Women are the losing entire crops to unseasonal backbone of marginal farmer rains and droughts; fields are being

12 southasiadisasters.net May 2018 rendered unproductive due to • The rural retail value chain farmer women, smart agricultural pesticides and bad cropping patterns; (RUDI) to enable farmers to sell practices, climate preparedness, hike soil health and plant health are their agri produce at fair prices in agricultural revenue, a well set rapidly deteriorating; and erratic without having to travel long supply chain, sturdy cropping water supply is adversely affecting distances thereby positively patterns, etc. the irrigation pattern. impacting 40,000+ households • The Women, Water and Work Vanitaben Kudecha from Anjar To combat this SEWA imbibes a Campaign to improve Village — Surendranagar District, community-driven approach agriculture productivity and shares — "Earlier I used to practice integrating agriculture and increase resilience to weather salt farming, but with the water canal technology to enable farmers to shocks (covering 4,60,000 being set up in our village I thought become the drivers of sustainable women across 1500 villages) of starting cotton farming – but had agriculture by initiatives like: • Delivering capacity building no idea about it. But thanks to the • Organizing farmers into Farmer trainings to develop a sturdy various training programs Groups to facilitate timely cadre of grassroots Master conducted by SEWA's Farmer Field access to credit Trainers who through Farmer Schools I learnt scientific agro • Seed banks, plant clinics and Field Schools cascade their practices, cotton farming, soil testing, agricultural tools and learning/s to a larger farmer seed multiplication and production equipment libraries (22,500 + audience (6,455 farmers) and organic farming techniques. farmers benefitted) • Digitizing 23,660 rural women Applying these has ensured • Training 24,917+ farmers in soil across 2200 villages to ease their doubling of yield, with input of health and vermicompost drudgery. lesser efforts, time and money..." preparation • Customized products like The journey of making the rural SEWA believes that women are the rainfall insurance and agri- women accept and adapt to climate best agents to engineer change and advisory services to 8584+ resilient agricultural practices and address new aspects of development farmers technological innovations has been in a society. With Indian agriculture • Energy initiatives like - biogas challenging but the results have been getting feminized a holistic approach plants (152 set up), solar pumps heartening in terms of – substantial interweaving climate resilient for irrigation, solar lanterns (to increase in the quality and quantity practices and water solutions 15,000+ rural households) and of yield, strengthened livelihoods, enables women to work towards the cooking stoves (for 6000+ fulfilment of nutrition requirement economic and social security of their women) of a greater number of households, families. – Smita Bhatnagar, retention of soil nutrients, tech savvy Manager, SEWA, Gujarat, India

CLIMATE CHANGE AND PUBLIC HEALTH Climate Change and the Challenge to Public Health in India

ntroduction climate change induced uncertainty Success stories in public health are IClimate change leads to poses a challenge to securing the about deaths averted and lives saved. uncertainty in weather patterns. The health of people. How is their health The count is not in ones or twos. manifestations of climate change are and wellbeing compromised on the Rather, it is in thousands and wide ranging in India due to the size face of such uncertainty? Is the millions. The discipline has evolved and geographical diversity of the challenge insurmountable? over time. It is multidisciplinary country. Depending on the location with representation from medicine, and vulnerability, regions of India Promotion of people's health is at nursing, natural sciences and the are getting affected by rising sea levels, the core of public health. The social sciences. In recent years, there heat waves, sudden storms, erratic discipline adopts a macro-societal has been an emphasis on the rainfall, droughts and salinization of perspective. It seeks to prevent participation of people in health water, to name a few. These disease and promote health and promotion and monitoring of phenomena are destroying homes wellbeing. Collective gains healthcare services. The discipline and upsetting livelihoods. Such underscore public health victories. recognizes the power of the people

May 2018 southasiadisasters.net 13 and seeks to leverage it to attain its diseases such as diabetes. The public Climate change poses a grave goals. It is acutely empathetic to the health care infrastructure is deficient challenge to securing the health and plight of the disadvantaged and the in India. The challenge posed by wellbeing of people. It militates marginalized. Equity has guided climate change thus adds to the against the very rationale of the policy and practice in public health burden on the country and discipline of public health. Whether since the 1990s. The discipline has compounds it. the challenge can be overcome been a forerunner in ethics with depends on whether a principles such as beneficence, non- Another point needs to be transformative approach can be harm (non-maleficence), autonomy mentioned here. Climate change adopted to secure people's health. and confidentiality underpinning it. affects social determinants of health Challenges are not new to public such as shelter and livelihood. It health. Equity and ethics are well Challenge to Public Health in India upsets the very conditions in which founded in the discipline. Influential Climate change poses a threat to people live and work. Decreased voices in public health have already securing people's health in India and crop yields increase food insecurity. begun to join forces against the the world. Temperature rise leads to The traditional sources of foods are common threat. The 2015 report by spread of diseases such as malaria affected, compromising people's The Rockefeller Foundation - Lancet and diarrhea to hitherto cooler areas. health and nutrition. Cyclones and Commission on Planetary Health Extreme weather events cause floods make the homeless vulnerable. explicitly states that 'environmental injuries, disabilities and deaths. threats to human health and human Storms damage/destroy healthcare Public Health in Uncertain Times civilisation will be characterised by facilities. In the Indian Sundarbans, The history of public health is surprise and uncertainty'. It calls for islands have shrunk in size due to replete with challenges. It is also action to be taken at global, national the land being washed away by the testimony to the successful and sub national levels 'before waters of the Bay of Bengal. Public overcoming of challenges and irreversible changes in key Earth health outposts that provide care to drawing lessons from them. The systems occur'. the local population have been successful eradication of small pox damaged. The increased disease is an example in this regard. More Can the discipline of public health burden and damaged infrastructure recently, making India polio free has once again rise to the occasion? Can add to the country's existing public been an acclaimed public health it restrict the multifaceted effects of health challenges. India shoulders a success. It is held that the size, climate change on people's health dual burden of communicable and diversity and complexity of India and on the social determinants of non-communicable diseases. Ill makes it an interesting test case. If a health? The discipline has successfully health and death due to diseases such public health challenge can be overcome challenges in the past. as malaria and tuberculosis are successfully tackled in the country, Only time will tell if this too shall common in the country. As are ill- then it holds a mirror to the rest of pass. – Manasee Mishra, health and death caused by lifestyle the world. IIHMR University, India Indian Sundarbans.

14 southasiadisasters.net May 2018 URBAN HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE Urban Health Focus in Climate Resilience

n a rapidly urbanising India, the climate change. There is much B) Urban museum: A Museum Irural to urban population ratio has information on climate change displaying visuals for learning already reached to 70:30. but not much on health changes about city, its vulnerability, Urbanisation influences the due to climate change. Every city service system, health system, economy, development, needs to build its capacity to avail climate trend and modulation, demography, climate change, social standardized health data, review ecology and its impact shall be cohesion as well as urban health. health and climate data regularly the attraction for urban Urban health is defined as "Health for evidence based planning. The community. status and health concerns of the same is an advocacy tool as policy C) Social media platform: population in an urban area"1. Urban makers, administrators and Interactive web portal to inform, health is based on core healthy cities community will listen if its to learn, solve the queries, principles of equity, intersectoral properly vetted. updates and relay forecast with cooperation, community B) Intersectoral convergence: Health SOPs. involvement and sustainability2. and climate resilience is a matter D) Institutionalisation: Climate change has been recognised of engineering, enforcement and Institutionalizing community as the greatest threat to human education. All departments of empowerment and enhancing health in 21st Century3. Urban urban systems need to have a inter personal communication health is a new arena, adding cross boundary agenda. capacity of grassroots level climate agenda in urban health and C) Technology: Use of technology stakeholders will also improve health agenda in climate change is shall improve efficiency of the health outcomes in a changing the need of the hour. resilience activity for real time climate scenario. data mining, storage, organisation, E) Child friendly city: Educate and Climate change can impact urban analysis, interpretation, Empower, Involve children and health in a variety of ways, viz. dissemination and storage. youngsters to ensure that every direct exposure, intra-domestic – D) Capacity building: To fix climate child has access to opportunity, occupation environment, changing and urban health resilience care, protection and rights. microbes – vectors-contamination requires investment in human F) Promoting individual Health and pathways, changes in ecology- beings along with tech magic4. It climate resilience: hydrology-agriculture and socio requires experts from planning, • Holistic approach towards economic- demographic transitions. engineering, health, policy, law, individual tolerance and It is measured as discomfort, disease, management but most of all it immunity by education, disability and death. needs people who are able to immunisation, nutrition and understand cross cutting areas. following "Rituchakra" "What is not good for the climate is E) Academic support: Academic guidelines for seasonal not good for human health as well", support by collaborating with lifestyle modification. explains safe climate limits. academic institutions / centre is • Compliance to guidelines of Considering temporal and spatial valuable. For evidence based environment actions e.g. water variability of climate and health interventions learners and conservation, green cover, trends, every city needs to develop researchers are to be different sanitation, public transport, etc. its action plan towards climate and from the doers and together they • Action as per SOPs of disaster, health resilience and regularly can create a knowledge and climate and health forecasts. update it. Health Resilience is a experience for effective urban, – Dr. Vikas Kishor Desai, Technical dynamic process whereby people health and climate resilience. Director Urban Health and Climate bounce back to health, revive health Resilience Centre of Excellence, Surat, status and go on with their lives after Urban Community Lab: Gujarat, India an emergency. The following A) Community is the answer: measure highlight some of the ways Community education, skill 1 Oxford online Dictionary to identify and address the impacts building and participation are 2 Healthy cities. Urban planning, of climate change on urban health. major contributors to the evaluation phase V, (2009-2013) WHO regional office for Europe resilience building process. 3 Tackling climate change: the greatest Urban Observatory: Community preparedness is a opportunity for global health – The A) Health and climate surveillance: behavioural aspect and action Lancet 2015 Is important to understand beyond mass media for day to 4 Social change is in danger from human reaction and tolerance to day resilience is required. Technology, Kentaro Toyama, 2015 May 2018 southasiadisasters.net 15 SOLAR ENERGY Development and Climate Change Mitigation

10 MW grid connected Canal Top Solar Power Plant in Vadodara by Government of Gujarat.

limate change is the bitterest Energy generation is a major renewable energy by 2022 under Ctruth of the 21st century. contributor of GHG, which is the visionary leadership of Prime Economic development through reason behind global warming. Minister of India Shri Narendra abuse of natural resources has led to Therefore in recent times promotion Modi. Out of 175 GW, 100 GW will irreversible changes to earth's of use of non-conventional sources be from solar, 60 from Wind energy systems including damages to the of energy through use of solar and and the rest 15GW will be from atmospheric concentration of gases. wind resources are promoted world biomass, waste to energy and small The uncontrolled use of fossil fuels, over. Also in the United Nations hydroelectric power stations. Thus, manufacturing of cement and land Sustainable Development Goals, India is playing a centre stage role use change are the major reasons of published in 2015, it is given high in renewable energy development green house gas (GHG) emissions importance. Access to energy to the world over. India has also been which have caused climate change every citizen is a high priority of instrumental in establishing since last one century. the Government, at the same time International Solar Alliance (ISA) through structured policies and under the United Nations with help The efforts made to limit further programmes renewable energy is of tropical countries getting very emissions of GHG are known as being promoted for long-term high solar irradiation. The ISA is mitigation. Also efforts made to ecological sustainability as well. ensuring Energy Security in under capture and store atmospheric developed African and Asian carbon is part of climate change The Government of India has countries through maximising cost mitigation efforts. decided to establish 175 GW of effective solar technology. Out of 100

16 southasiadisasters.net May 2018 GW of installed capacity through use 2 decades, the recent version of Wind however the present capacity of solar energy 40% will be from Power policy of 2016 is instrumental comprises more than 25% from Rooftop installations, also in adding to the installed capacity renewable resources with a vision installations of solar based pump of wind energy which has reached to make it 40% of installed capacity sets in Agriculture is promoted with to more than 5500 MW by Jan. 2018. by 2030. an idea to conserve water resources by ensuring uninterrupted power Also Gujarat is promoting waste to There is still a long way to go in supply. energy projects through a Policy order to achieve climate change announced in 2016. Municipal mitigation. In the present scenario, Gujarat has been the leading Indian Corporations along with the private only the energy sector is focused on state to promote renewable energy developers are working hard to this pursuit as evidenced by through strong government policy resolve the issues of disposal of development towards mitigation and infrastructure support. Gujarat's Municipal Solid waste through action, but alternatives to cement Solar Policy of 2009 was instrumental waste to energy projects in PPP along with the large scale carbon in scaling up of Solar Power installed mode in the State. The innovation capture and storage are also capacity from KW scale to MW scale of Solar Park, Canal top Solar, hybrid required. Technology and scale of and now it has reached to GW scale structural design for wind tower are economy can help to fulfil the in India. The solar power policy of some of the outstanding initiatives promise of keeping the rise of global Gujarat was revised in 2015 to of Gujarat in the field of climate temperatures below 2oC by the end promote net metering across the change mitigation. Gujarat's of the 21st century as committed in state with an emphasis to rooftop development story started with 315 the Paris Agreement. based installations. Gujarat has also MW of installed capacity of power —Shwetal Shah, Technical Advisor, promoted Wind energy since the last in 1960-61 to todays 27058 MW, Climate Change Department, Government of Gujarat, India

CLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVES GUIDE's Initiatives for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

achchh, an arid district, entirely population resides in rural areas. The animal husbandry, fishing, artisan Kfalls under desert bio- majority of rural population belongs and daily wage labour. The poor geographical zone of India (Desert to poor and marginal communities and marginal communities are 3A). The district experiences many and is dependent on natural facing severe threats from ongoing geomorphic and climatic events in resources for their livelihood. The climatic changes and are also prone past as showed by many evidences. major occupations of the rural people to the uncertainty of climate change About 62 per cent of the district of the district are dryland farming, as projected in the near future. Major implications are weather variability; crop season shifting, temperature alterations and precipitation patterns leadings to degradation of the natural ecosystem, land degradation and desertification, which subsequently affects agriculture productivity. Thus, concrete measures are to be undertaken for adaptation of rural poor and marginal communities of the district to mitigate the climatic vulnerability. In view of this, Gujarat Institute of Desert Ecology (GUIDE) has been striving to address many of these issues and challenges. Some Milkfish culture following cage method. of the initiatives undertaken by May 2018 southasiadisasters.net 17 GUIDE are i) reclamation of some of the areas in Rann of Kachchh, ii) restoration of degraded grasslands in Banni, iii) promotion of alternate livelihood options through pisciculture and sea-weed cultivation, and iv) climate proofing through watershed development programme.

GUIDE initiated the Rann Reclamation Programme during the year 2001 with an aim of making some of the 'bet' (islands) in Greater Rann of Kachchh (GRK) habitable and suitable for defence personnel to perform their duties. The conditions in selected islands were improved through an integrated Some glimpses of watershed development programme undertaken by GUIDE. approach including land development, water resource undertaken by GUIDE. The major grading was done to avoid conservation, and vegetation problems of the area include climatic cannibalism, competition among the establishment. Similarly, GUIDE constraints, poor soil fertility, soil individuals for feed and space. also carried out action based erosion, poor vegetative cover, poor Artificial feeds mixed with cooked programmes to restore degraded surface and ground water trash fish was used for fingerlings. grasslands in Banni region. The availability, soil and water salinity Regarding the sea-weed culture, project aimed at pasture land resulting into land degradation and floating rafts (3×3 m2 bamboo frame development, improved grass subsequent productivity degradation. with polypropylene ropes) is being productivity, enhanced fodder The integrated project aims at used to suspend seaweed about 50 availability and increased milk improving the land status through cm below the water surface. productivity. The attempt also various soils, water and other site addressed migration issues of specific amendments. This has The seedlings are inserted to the nomadic communities. This project improved the land as well as the ropes and all rafts are connected and was undertaken during 1996-2011. socioeconomic status of the villagers. anchored. Initially four rafts were The key player was Gujarat Ecology installed to study the feasibility of Commission and Department of The project had both ecological and the chosen site. Each family is Forest and Environment, sociological dimensions. Of late, the maintaining 06 cages during trials Government of Gujarat (GoG), GUIDE team has also initiated carried out by GUIDE. Even if one Gandhinagar. A District Level another integrated programme, or two non-working members of a Committee (DLC), constituted by wherein both adaptation strategy family are involved in polyculture, the GoG under the Chairmanship of and mitigation options are being this technique is estimated to District Collector, Kachchh, oversaw looked at. Polyculture activities are generate a minimum income of Rs. the project activities. The detailed initiated to increase adaptive 1.5 – 3.0 Lakhs annually from fish guidelines for execution of the capacity of coastal populace and sea- culture (2-5 families) while seaweed project were framed and approved weed culturing activities are would generate an income of Rs. by the DLC. Through these initiated to provide livelihood 13,000-15,000 per month per family. initiatives the local populace has options and as a means of All these initiatives would not only been empowered to undertake sequestering carbon, as one of the help in restoring the degraded lands grassplot development by mitigation options. Lates calcarifer in the arid region, but would also addressing the challenges of inherent (Bloch), i.e. Giant Sea Perch or Asian help in ameliorating the hardships salinity, and also ensuring fodder Seabass is an important food fish and of native people by providing them supply for their livestock. is being cultured currently. with alternative livelihood options. Approximately 6,000 fingerlings – Dr. V. Vijay Kumar and In addition, as a climate proofing were initially stocked in different Dr. Anjankumar Prusty, exercise, integrated watershed HAPA nets in Gujarat coast. Fish Gujarat Institute of Desert Ecology, development programs were also seeds were acclimatized, and regular Bhuj, Gujarat, India

18 southasiadisasters.net May 2018 ARCHITECTURE DESIGN FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Architecture Design and Addressing Climate Change Uncertainty

he act of building is a We understand climate change to be response of buildings to T fundamental expression of a complex process that is a global extremes in climate conditions. confidence in the future. Place and phenomenon. As the effects of 2. Use natural light where possible. the ready access to useful materials climate change increase across India 3. Local craftsmanship that can are the essential elements of the it is all the more important for optimize the use of materials process of Architecture. Across the architecture to be able to adapt to for specific site and functional length and breadth of India we can the changes occurring both conditions. see how multiple and varied seasonally as well as in the form of 4. Use of local materials that are landscapes have produced a huge extreme conditions that are appropriate to site conditions variety of built solutions to human becoming more frequent. and climatic conditions leading needs. These so-called vernacular to relevant forms of architecture. traditions, primarily in rural areas, The challenge for architecture today are the tangible embodiment of is to meet the growing demand for For an adaptive architecture to be generations of skill in the use of basic facilities in a cost effective relevant to current and future needs materials and in the response to the manner. Architecture must respond of society it needs to engage both forces of nature. The efficient use of and adapt to the environment and with vernacular traditions where local materials created sustainable to climate as well as satisfying the appropriate as well as the relevant forms of passive architecture that immediate functional and cultural new technologies and materials that could be adapted as the needs of needs of the users. Buildings need can improve the quality of the lives society changed over generations. to be climate adaptive across all of the end users. Time is of the functional types. The following essence as the demand for all forms In recent times there has been a fundamentals of vernacular of basic shelter far outstrips the proliferation of new cost-effective architecture need to be incorporated capacity to provide for it. materials which can be transported into contemporary design solutions: – Arthur Duff, everywhere with speed and ease. As 1 Use of natural ventilation and Area Chair, CEPT, Ahmedabad, a result there is huge range of new of thermal mass to optimize the Gujarat, India building forms being constructed that bear little or no relation to their natural context and may not be at all efficient in terms of their response to the given climate as well as basic comfort levels. Consequently, the control of climate is being mechanized – either for cooling or heating – at a considerable cost, both capital and recurring. Unfortunately, the amount of energy being used to manufacture these new building materials as well as using them in construction is enormous and may also be contributing to the process of climate change. In addition the skills required for the use of traditional materials are being "Contemporary technology optimising the use of bamboo as a structural element". rendered obsolete at a rapid rate. Demonstrated in the shamiana at Kamla Sadan Bodakdev, Ahmedabad, designed by Deepak Arora.

May 2018 southasiadisasters.net 19 IMPLEMENTING PARIS AGREEMENT IN INDIA Climate Change Initiatives in Gujarat: Towards Transformation

ndia is committed to implement C. Energy and Petrochemicals Rooftop/ BoV/ Energy Eff. Light Ithe Paris Agreement with all its Department: at Yattradham vitality and resources. For India, • Assistance to state PSEs for climate change is a sustainable providing solar based non E. Industry and Mines Department: development challenge and Paris electrified areas of the state • Integrated Development of Agreement is a commitment to its • Assistance to Gujarat Urja Vikas Destinations own citizen. As a result, many states Nigam Limited for implementing • High Level Cleanliness at in India have taken numerous steps the scheme of solar agriculture Yatradhams/ Drinking Water/ to reduce emissions and improve as pump sets Smart Spritual Destination/ Solar well as scale-up successful • Capital contribution to Gujarat Rooftop/ BoV/ Energy Eff. Light adaptation. Gujarat is leading the Power Corporation Limited for at Yattradham way among the different states of establishment of solar park in the India to implement innovative state F. Urban Development and Urban climate change initiatives. • Assistance to Sardar Patel Housing Department: Renewable Energy Research • UDP-Urban Development The following are key areas in Institute. Mission - Smart City Climate Change that the various • Assistance for Energy • Grant in aid to Municipal departments of the government of Conservation Corporation for Atal Mission for Gujarat are implementing. Rejuvenation and Urban D.Forest and Environment Transformation (AMRUT) A. Climate Change Department: Department: • Installation of Solar Roof Top System • Biodiversity conservation and G. Kachchh: • Subsidy to students of Smart city/ rural livelihood improvement • Installation for Wind Energy Solar City /Carbon resilient City project • Climate Change Adaptation for for purchase of (low speed and • National Afforestation Natural Resource Dependent high speed) battery operated two programme Communities in Kachchh, wheelers vehicles. • Soil and moisture conservation Gujarat. The project aims to • Installation of Solar Water and afforestation in denuded enhance the adaptive capacity of Heating Systems at Government forest area natural resource dependent hostels and Residential Schools • Gujarat Forestry Development communities (Agriculture, • Provide super efficient Fans and • Action plan for creation of Coastal Fishing and Pastoral LED Tube light in Schools and Kachchh biosphere reserve communities) to climate change Hostels of the State. • Community forestry scheme in targeted villages of Kachchh • Promoting Waste to Energy and • Grass Development Project district, Gujarat. Solid Waste Management • Vrux Kheti Yojana • Small Grants Programme for • Intensification Forest The next step in this endeavor is Promotion of Small Projects and Management robust implementation of the Research on Climate change. • Vermicompost Scheme aforementioned projects and • Climate change, Renewable • Action Plan for Creation of programmes. It is important to Energy, and Gobar Gas Plant Taskforce and Mangrove reimagine and reformulate existing Plantation adaptation policies to address the B. Agriculture and Cooperation • Bamboo Forest Management need of the most vulnerable Department: • Scheduled Castes Sub Plan communities of Gujarat. There is • Scheme for Farm Ponds for Water Scheme for Fruit Plantations also a need for stronger linkages and storage in Gujarat State • Integrated Development of greater policy coherence among • Scheme for Water Harvesting Destinations SDGs, NDCs and SFDRR to help the • Scheme for Distilling of Village • High Level Cleanliness at state in transforming its economy to Ponds Yatradhams/ Drinking Water/ a green and clean one. • Integrated watershed development Smart Spritual Destination/ Solar —GUIDE and programme in tribal area. AIDMI Teams

20 southasiadisasters.net May 2018 POLICY BRIEF Addressing Climate Change Uncertainty in Dryland Kachchh, India

The semi-arid district of Kachchh in Gujarat, India is known for its erratic rainfall, water scarcity, and droughts. Climate change has intensified extreme temperature and rainfall patterns and also led to changes to the long coastline. These are affecting not only the lives and livelihoods of local people, but also threatening the vibrant ecosystem of Kachchh. While locals are pushed to the limits of coping, government interventions are driven by top-down measures. Strategies geared towards adapting to these changes need to be grounded in local experiences if they are to address the many uncertainties brought about by climate change alongside other rapid socioeconomic changes in Kachchh.

limate Change in Kachchh CKachchh is the largest district in India, located in the state of Gujarat. The semi-arid district has a dynamic ecosystem, ranging from wetlands to grasslands, deserts, and a long coast with lush mangrove forests. Apart from its ecological diversity, Kachchh is also known for its cultural diversity and syncretism.

Water scarcity and droughts have always been a part of life in Kachchh and local people have used their own knowledge to cope with the

uncertainties that these bring. Such Photo: Shibaji Bose. local experience, however, rarely Kachchh vanishing mangroves. finds its way into policy with local knowledge systems and as agricultural lands have become interventions concerning dryland response strategies in order to make susceptible to inundation and management and climate adaptation climate science more relevant. This salinity, and cyclones and storm and mitigation. Since 2001, Kachchh should help decision makers draw surges are likely to become more has witnessed rapid industrial on a wider range of options to frequent. Rainfall in Kachchh has growth in the form of port address climate change issues. become more unpredictable with an development, special economic increase in intense periods of rainfall zones, and mining. These have Research was conducted in Kanmer, and floods. While droughts have rapidly transformed the district's located in Rapar taluka (sub-district) always been a part of life in ecology, especially the coast, and bordering the Little Rann of Kachchh, floods have not. also undermined local people's rights Kachchh, and the coastal village of to common property resources and Jakhau in Abdasa taluka. These Reduction in fodder and fuel local lands. locations represent the district's key availability, increased salinity ecosystems (coastal, wetland, and ingress (freshwater aquifers turning Climate uncertainty refers to the dryland) and livelihoods salty), and depleting forest and inability to predict the scale, (agriculture, animal husbandry, and groundwater resources have made intensity, and impact of climate fishing). livelihoods more precarious and change on human and natural vulnerable to shocks. The negative environments. The project Climate Livelihoods in the Face of Climate impacts of prosopis juliflora (an Change, Uncertainty and Change invasive weed), changing drought Transformation seeks to bring It is estimated that coastal areas such patterns, a high burden of livestock together existing policy and scientific as the Gulf of Kachchh are likely to and crop diseases due to increased discourses of climate uncertainty be the worst hit by climate change temperatures, and poor water

May 2018 southasiadisasters.net 21 quality have affected the major Policy Implications livelihoods—agriculture, animal 1. Support Pro-poor Adaptation: Marginal environments such as husbandry, and fishing. For local Kachchh require pro-poor adaptation interventions that are linked people, coping responses include with social development strategies that are ultimately more changes in cropping patterns (for inclusive and address the vulnerabilities of marginalised groups. farmers) and moving out of These may range from increased public expenditure on social sectors traditional occupations to adopt (schools, hospitals, and basic services) and employment to casual jobs (for fishers and herders). implementation of labour laws in new industries, as well as strengthening and protecting local ecosystems and biodiversity. Understanding Climate Change 2. Recognise and Incorporate Local Knowledge in Policy: Vital in For several generations, local people ensuring coherent and effective response to climate change is the have deployed traditional knowledge incorporation of local realities and understanding. Decision makers such as observing seawater currents, need to build on the existing knowledge systems and practices of animal and bird behaviour as well local resource users. as planetary positions in the sky to 3. Protect Resource Rights and Livelihoods: Sustained efforts (in law predict seasonal patterns. Scientists and policy) need to be made to protect the resource rights of poor found these predictions to be quite communities as they provide a critical cushion to climate shocks. accurate up to 2005, but in the last These rights must also be protected in the wake of industrialisation decade these predictions have processes. Agro-pastoralist livelihoods which are more attuned to become less reliable. dryland dynamics should be supported and mainstreamed in adaptation interventions. While policymakers and non- 4. Promote Inclusive Development in the Drylands: Policymakers need to develop policies and strategies that are attuned to Kachchh's governmental organisations concur dryland dynamics and which support the needs of local farmers, that climate-related uncertainties fishers and pastoralists rather than those of powerful corporations have become acute in Kachchh, and industrial actors. It is important that industrial development government interventions need to be and economic growth in the district do not intensify social and more proactive. While government gender inequalities. Focus must move to social and human has undertaken many programmes development that is socially and gender just. concerning mitigation and adaptation, they have tended to be top-down common grazing lands and are Credits: This IDS Policy Briefing was written by and seldom reflect the ecological and threatening the survival of Shilpi Srivastava and Lyla Mehta social diversity of this district. indigenous kharai (swimming) with inputs from Mihir R. Bhatt and camels. Many of Kachchh's V. Vijay Kumar and edited by Vivienne Benson. The opinions Industrialisation has Intensified traditional pastoralist groups such as expressed are those of the authors and Climate Change Impacts the Rabaris and Jats are now having do not necessarily reflect the views of The accelerated pace of industrial to give up pastoralism in favour of IDS. With thanks to the project team: Gujarat Institute of Desert Ecology, development in Kachchh is having settled agriculture or migrant/casual All India Disaster Mitigation Institute, a significant impact on local labour. Indian Institute of Technology – livelihoods. Following the 2001 Bombay, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, IIHMR earthquake, industrial zones and Social Inequality Increases University, University of Sussex, ESRC ports were set up to 'develop' this Vulnerability STEPS Centre, Institute of remote district. These have brought Despite the accelerated pace of Development Studies, Norwegian Institute for Water Research, and the about changes in land use, 'growth', access to education and Norwegian University of Life Sciences. biodiversity, and resource basic services remain challenging. This research is supported by the distribution that have intensified the Social inequities of caste, class, Research Council of Norway. impacts of climate change. religion, and gender persist and lead Readers can find more information about the Climate Change, to poor social outcomes. For Uncertainty and Transformation Intense groundwater extraction for example, with wells turning saline project on the website: industrial activities and the and poor drinking water www.nmbu.no/en/ destruction of mangroves and infrastructure, women and especially faculty/landsam/department/ noragric/research/our_projects/ related ecology have compounded young girls who bear responsibility projects/node/21234 the problem of salinity ingress, of fetching water for household Readers are encouraged to quote and creating problems for agriculture chores have limited time and reproduce material from the IDS and livestock. Industrial activities opportunity to learn and go to Policy Briefing series. In return, IDS requests due acknowledgement and have reduced pastoralists' access to school. quotes to be referenced as above.

22 southasiadisasters.net May 2018 POLICY BRIEF Transforming Urban Governance to Manage Uncertainty and Climate Change in Mumbai, India

Despite unprecedented wealth accumulation, coastal Mumbai suffers from a myriad of socioeconomic and ecological challenges as well as connected uncertainties. These include endemic flooding, shrinking of sensitive ecosystems, inequality, and marginalisation of natural resource–dependent communities, such as fishers. These are in addition to existing risks, including building collapse, fire hazards, infrastructure collapse, industrial accidents, and landslides. The spectre of climate change looms large and further complicates the situation. Urban governance mechanisms and strategies respond insufficiently to the growing threats the city faces. More needs to be done to manage and address these uncertainties through a strategic, adaptation–focused, and communicative urban governance framework that emphasises both reducing risk and strengthening social justice.

overnance and Uncertainty numeric value) to a situation or and ongoing attempts to control the G Governance in urban megacities outcome. The fractured nature of runoff have not yielded intended in general, and in Mumbai governance, for instance, creates results. Despite a number of particularly, is a notoriously uncertainty and is a major obstacle infrastructure interventions by complex exercise. The range of actors, towards effective development authorities, such as retainer walls scales of governance, multiplicity of planning and disaster mitigation. and pump stations, flooding remains institutions, pace of economic chronic in Mumbai. development, and emerging threats Social, Political, and Natural Causes from environmental change create of Flooding Existing approaches preferred by the multiple layers of uncertainty. Annual flooding is undeniably an Municipal Corporation of Greater Uncertainty impedes the ability of important matter of concern for Mumbai and the Mumbai local policymakers and governments residents and public authorities, Metropolitan Region Development to accurately predict or plan for especially since the devastating Authority tend to side-line future events and disasters (for Mithi River deluge of 2005 that underlying causes that are as much example, an extreme weather event's claimed more than 1,000 lives. political and social in nature as they intensity, scale or timing, such as the Extreme rainfall is often blamed for are physical. For example, devastating Mithi deluge in 2005) and floods. However, it is only a unregulated construction activities, associated impacts, and attribute a proximate cause for their occurrence untreated discharge of solid waste, single identifiable root cause (or ill-planned and uncoordinated urban planning, and disappearing floodplains and mangrove areas have aggravated the vulnerability of many areas by hindering absorption and outflow of water. The consequent flooding affects all sections of society. A greater burden is, however, borne by economically and socially weaker sections, who live in low–lying areas and in closer proximity to drainage channels. They experience ill health through increasing incidence of vector-borne diseases or exposure to contaminated water, injuries, loss in earning days, and destruction of assets and property on a regular

Photo: Shibaji Bose. basis, with limited capacities to cope, Mumbai's famed Mithi river in a sorry state. and little state support. May 2018 southasiadisasters.net 23 Livelihoods, Development, and Climate Change Policy Implications City residents perceive climate 1. Clear coordination needs to be established between all agencies - change mainly in terms of more local, regional, and national - involved in climate change, disaster erratic and intense rainfall events, as mitigation, urban planning, and municipal governance. well as increasingly frequent 2. Climate risks have to be mainstreamed consistently into urban, heatwaves. In addition, middle-class disaster management, and flood mitigation planning. residents articulate it in terms of 3. Protection of livelihood rights of resource-dependent communities, rising pollution and a deteriorating such as fishers, needs to be strengthened. quality of the natural environment. 4. There should be more focus on pro-poor adaptation that enhances Mumbai's oldest community, the people's and the state's capacity to cope with future climatic changes, Koli fishers, observe changes in and reduces uncertainty. Mitigation alone is inadequate. wave strength, wind, tidal flows, 5. There needs to be strict implementation by public authorities of ocean currents, and sea temperature. Coastal Regulation Zone norms and other protective legislation The altered patterns adversely affect (e.g. wetland rules) for coastal ecosystems. their fish catch and add uncertainty 6. Short–term infrastructure fixes need to be supplemented by long- to their livelihoods. Uncertainties term social, economic, and ecological assessments and visions for around climate change impacts the city, such as scenario planning exercises, that acknowledge interweave with larger development livelihood rights and risk/uncertainty scenarios of all its residents. trends in the city, including those 7. Genuine streamlining of alternative views and knowledge into stemming from global market political processes should be pursued by strengthening the integration and industrialisation. participation of NGOs, fishers, residential associations, and citizen Koli fishers point out that big scientists. Constitutional rights (specifically the 74th Amendment) trawlers, pollution, and disappearing that provide for the participatory planning and governance of mangroves and coastal ecosystems municipal master plans need to be followed in letter and spirit. have had a major impact on their livelihoods. Urbanisation swallows the focus in Mumbai lies on Credits: large tracts of fisher spaces, as in the mitigation activities that are focused This IDS Policy Briefing was written by case of the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Hans Nicolai Adam, D. on technology and infrastructure, development. Mangroves also form Parthasarathy and N.C. Narayanan exemplified by the central an important natural defence barrier with inputs from Lyla Mehta and government's flagship scheme for against floods and coastal erosion, Shilpi Srivastava and edited by urban modernisation, the Smart Hannah Corbett. The opinions but remain threatened by land Cities Mission. Scientists, residential expressed are those of the authors and grabbing and conversion — despite associations, and NGOs highlight the do not necessarily reflect the views of protective legislation such as Coastal IDS. With thanks to the project team: need for improved vulnerability Regulation Zone norms. People Institute of Technology - Bombay, mapping and pro-poor adaptation living along the flood-prone Mithi Centre for the Study of Developing action to complement mitigation River often support efforts for flood Societies, Norwegian Institute for frameworks. Yet, their voices and Water Research, Gujarat Institute of mitigation and mention the knowledge for alternative Desert Ecology, All India Disaster improved disaster responsiveness of development plans seldom translate Mitigation Institute, IIHMR University, the city. On the other hand, they University of Sussex, Institute of into policy, despite the fact that, as harbour deep fears of being forced Development Studies, and the the case of flooding illustrates; to relocate in the name of flood Norwegian University of Life Sciences. singular top-down approaches with This research is supported by the protection and being impoverished short-term fixes do not work, and Research Council of Norway. in the process, without adequate can be highly inequitable. A compensation. They also point out Readers can find more information transformative approach towards that while big builders gain access about the Climate Change, urban planning that emphasises Uncertainty and Transformation to land along the riverbanks, it is long-term goals, risk reduction, project on the website: refused to them, highlighting ecological contexts, and social justice www.nmbu.no/en/faculty/landsam/ unequal planning outcomes. department/noragric/research/ outcomes is necessary. In part, this our_projects projects/node/21234 can be driven by changing urban The Need for a Transformative Readers are encouraged to quote and Approach governance paradigms towards a more plural and people-centric reproduce material from the IDS Urban planners have slowly started Policy Briefing series. In return, IDS approach. to mainstream climate risks into requests due acknowledgement and development planning. At present, quotes to be referenced as above.

24 southasiadisasters.net May 2018 POLICY BRIEF Bringing Together Voices to Address Climate Change Uncertainty in the Indian Sundarbans

The majority of the five million people that live in the deltaic Indian Sundarbans face continuous uncertainties in relation to their shelter, livelihoods, and health. Climate change is one of the key factors aggravating this situation. While scientific evidence exists regarding climatic changes in the Sundarbans, scientists and experts often disagree about how the resulting key challenges should be addressed. The communities in the Sundarbans hold considerable knowledge about these uncertainties and their complex socioeconomic and ecological origins. However, this knowledge is often bypassed in planning and policy. It is vital that the communities' knowledge and that of experts and scientists be brought together to improve livelihood adaptation and disaster response, and promote more socially just and sustainable outcomes in this vulnerable coastal region of India.

limate Change and Uncertainties (e.g. more intense rainfall, heat migration to other parts of West Cin Indian Sundarbans waves, and sea level rise) are Bengal or other states in India. Climate uncertainty refers to the becoming more frequent and inability to predict the scale, pronounced. These manifestations of Uncertainties are Amplified for the most intensity, and impact of climate climate change have added to Vulnerable change on human and natural existing problems including frequent Vulnerable sections of the environments. The project Climate embankment breaching; loss of land, community are inevitably the worst Change, Uncertainty and homesteads and other assets; and off. For example, in Ghoramara, Transformation seeks to bring salinity ingress in agricultural land people are facing food insecurity together existing policy and scientific and sweet water ponds. All of these along with loss of shelter and discourses of climate uncertainty have led to the depletion of the livelihood options. By contrast, with local knowledge systems and traditional agro-fishing economy islanders of Mousuni are confronted response strategies in order to make and strained the islanders' coping with inter-religious struggles due to climate science more relevant. This capacities. problems around shelter in the face should help decision makers draw of recurrent embankment breaching on a wider range of options to As a result, households are forced to and rapidly eroding lands. Conflicts address climate change issues. constantly change their livelihood between islanders who live in safe patterns. For instance, agro fishing, zones (away from embankment Research took place in two wage labouring, or seasonal breaching and coastal erosion) are vulnerable hotspots: the sinking also becoming more acute. island of Ghoramara, located in Sagar block (sub-district) and erosion-prone Mousuni island in Namkhana block. It focused on challenges related to livelihoods, shelter, health, and food security in the context of climate change uncertainty.

Islanders in this region have had to contend with shocks such as cyclones and floods, and variations in its deltaic ecology as well as socioeconomic marginalisation since the first settlements were

established in the colonial period. In Photo: Shibaji Bose. recent years, scientific evidence Sundarbans Floods often render families homeless who are forced to live on the shows that erratic climatic events embankments.

May 2018 southasiadisasters.net 25 Alongside this, adolescent boys are Policy Implications dropping out of school and 1. Support convergence of knowledge: Vulnerable environments like migrating along with other male the Sundarbans require pro-poor adaptation as well as the family members to find work, strengthening and protection of local ecosystems and biodiversity, whereas young girls have to marry especially mangroves. Various knowledge and experiences, early in the mainland part of the including scientific, technical, administrative, and everyday practices Sundarbans to secure shelter and need to come together to plan for alternatives. stable income. 2. Encourage bottom-up knowledge in policymaking: The state should facilitate spaces to enable sharing between policymakers and local- Women across the Sundarbans level policy implementers, NGOs, and CBOs as well as local largely engage in activities such as communities' own experiences and responses. embroidery, and wage labouring to 3. Understand vulnerabilities and be open to iterative and multiple take part in the livelihood restoration planning processes: Vulnerabilities to climatic uncertainties are process. They are also increasingly differentially distributed within the Sundarbans as well as within subject to domestic violence; and communities. There is an urgent need to identify specific children experience a lack of care. vulnerabilities, vulnerable groups and locations, and plan the programme accordingly. Short–term Disaster Response vs Long-term Transformative Response 4. Go beyond disaster response (capturing opportunities offered by disaster): Innovative initiatives such as aquaculture need to be Following the lessons learned after supported and promoted in order to provide sustainable livelihoods Cyclone Aila (2009), the state and alternatives. local administrations are confident that large shocks can be managed livelihoods. Yet these are still to be Credits: through emergency responses. Yet, scaled up to become accessible to the This IDS Policy Briefing was written by despite the consensus between poorest members of the Sundarbans. Upasona Ghosh and Shibaji Bose scientists that concrete embankments with inputs from Mihir Bhatt, Darley Jose Kjosavik, Lyla Mehta, Hans are not a permanent solution to Lack of Coordination and Strategic Nicolai Adam and Shilpi Srivastava coastal erosion/storm-water surges, Response and edited by Vivienne Benson. The there is a dominant focus on concrete The uncoordinated and inconsistent opinions expressed are those of the embankments in policymaking for responses towards managing the authors and do not necessarily reflect the Sundarbans. Ground-level multiple challenges of the the views of IDS. With thanks to the implementation of schemes severely Sundarbans reflect a gap between project team: IIHMR University, lacks community knowledge and scientists, policymakers, NGOs, and Gujarat Institute of Desert Ecology, All India Disaster Mitigation Institute, participation, such as in land the islanders. NGOs (national and acquisition for embankments, Indian Institute of Technology - international) find it difficult to Bombay, Centre for the Study of mangrove conservation, and build bridges with policymakers due Developing Societies, University of compensation for crop loss due to to interference of political bias. Sussex, ESRC STEPS Centre, Institute natural calamities, as well as NGOs are well connected with CBOs, of Development Studies, Norwegian employment of rural youth under and jointly implement development Institute for Water Research, and the livelihood schemes. For example, programmes in the Sundarbans. Norwegian University of Life Sciences. after severe flood damage, the However, the implementation is This research is supported by the Research Council of Norway. islanders of Ghoramara could not most often concentrated in particular claim crop compensation as the locations which results in a very affected agricultural land simply Readers can find more information uneven spread of benefits. The about the Climate Change, Uncertainty disappeared. district- and block level and Transformation project on the administrations, though well aware website: www.nmbu. no/en/faculty/ Long-term initiatives such as of climatic impacts, fail to landsam/department/noragric/ brackish water aquaculture, sack communicate appropriate responses research/our_projects/projects/node/ cultivation, and cultivation of saline- to authorities at higher levels. The 2124 resistant crops pushed by community is, to some extent, Readers are encouraged to quote and nongovernmental organisations connected with each of these actors reproduce material from the IDS (NGOs) and community-based but their voices are not fully Policy Briefing series. In return, IDS organisations (CBOs) can make a integrated into policymaking and requests due acknowledgement and huge difference to improve lives and implementation. quotes to be referenced as above.

26 southasiadisasters.net May 2018 CAPACITY BUILDING Communicating Uncertainty: Key Areas to Consider

espite the fact that there is Dsome perception among people across the globe that the living environment is surrounded by high risks in everyday life, skills of communication and information of risks is still not widespread among professionals. In the recent times, public administration across the globe is often seen to have come across complex critical situations arising in the wake of communicating uncertainty mainly in areas of environmental risks. Under such circumstances, there is a need that the scientific community, decision makers and the stakeholders work in cohesion to enhance the appropriateness for However, to deal with the aspect of to the decision makers and estimation of determining the extent communicating uncertainty, it is community so as to avoid of risk for managing uncertainty. It important to consider the inconclusive communications. It has has been observed by researchers environmental determinants— been found that the representation that although there has been a wide identification, management and of risks uncertainty or probability analysis of uncertainties but the communication of environmental in words instead of numbers in actual representation of such analysis risks. To go ahead with the subject public is better comprehended and in documents has been found to be of communicating uncertainty, a few accepted. least documented and described observations on the following key which has lead decision makers to areas have been drawn. Involvement of multi-sectoral and plan inadequate strategies at certain multi–stakeholders in uncertainty instances. Global reports published Adoption of scientific approach for communication: Reliance on solely and shared on estimation of communicating uncertainty: The risk professionals without uncertainties have indicated that approach for acquiring information involvement of multi-sectoral and certain factors revolve around the of risks or raw data by the scientific multi–stakeholder cannot be a science of risks communication and professionals needs to be based on comprehensive approach on these includes Qualitative and the application of latest scientific communicating uncertainty. Quantitative analysis, better technique available which has been Therefore, studies on estimation of understanding of risk information recognized as space technology. uncertainty have been found to among users for stakeholders and recommend for adoption of multi- timely communication of risk Ideal measurement on risk sectoral and multi-stakeholder information to the community. probability/uncertainty: While the approach in the decision making home of metadata for the process. To understand uncertainty in a better environmental determinants or way, it is necessary to know the variations rests mostly with the Inclusion of uncertainty as reasons behind the variations of scientific community at large, component in scientific environmental determinants and the therefore it needs that the use of investigations: It is pertinent to fact that these risks variations are qualitative approach is recognized mention that a large volume of not exempted for decision makers. for presentation of risks assessment scientific studies have been

May 2018 southasiadisasters.net 27 performed by scientific institutions across the world every year and are carried out by the scientific professionals wherein the component of risk communication or uncertainty levels found were seen to be not embedded in their studies/investigatory works. Intermediate/Risk/uncertainty findings have been recommended to be a part of the investigation/study from the outset and to be reflected in a manner that it is understandable the lay audience.

Participatory risk / uncertainty communication: Another aspect of changing opinions and to present it is truly backed by public communicating uncertainty is the uncertainties in a simple manner participation. involvement of participatory without jargon for audience – Abhijnan T. Rajkhowa, uncertainty communication among acceptability. Communication Expert, ASDMA, various stakeholders so as to come Assam out with joint solutions. While Further, much of the literature considering a crucial situation of published in uncertainty analysis References: public administration in emphasizes the confusion in which 1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ communicating uncertainty, the authorities find themselves books/NBK200842/ challenge for the communicator is whenever decisions concerning 2. http://www.euro.who.int/__data/ assets/pdf_file/0011/233759/ to involve-the audience, make the evaluation of new facility have to e96930.pdf subject of uncertainty be undertaken and the possible 3. https://reliefweb.int/sites/ comprehensible and respect to environment risks. Hence, taking reliefweb.int/files/resources/ audience related values to risk. The into account the fact that public 20180124-ab-if-annual-report- decision makers and the information and references to the weather-climate-2017.pdf professionals associated in such precautionary principle put in place 4. http://www.duryognivaran.org/ situations need to be open for by any authority can be effective if images/Reports/sad_2017.pdf

Editorial Advisors: Denis Nkala Madhavi Malalgoda Ariyabandu Regional Coordinator, South-South Cooperation Sub-Regional Coordinator, Central Asia & South and Country Support (Asia-Pacific), United Nations Caucasus, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Development Programme, New York Reduction (UNISDR), Kazakhstan

Dr. Ian Davis Mihir R. Bhatt Visiting Professor in Disaster Risk Management in All India Disaster Mitigation Institute, India Copenhagen, Lund, Kyoto and Oxford Brookes Dr. Satchit Balsari, MD, MPH Universities The University Hospital of Columbia and Cornell, New York, USA Dr. John Twigg Senior Research Fellow in the Risk and Resilience T. Nanda Kumar programme, Overseas Development Institute (ODI), Former Chairman, Institute of Rural Management London Anand (IRMA), Anand, Gujarat, India

ALL INDIA DISASTER MITIGATION INSTITUTE 411 Sakar Five, Behind Old Natraj Cinema, Near Mithakhali Railway Crossing, Ashram Road, Ahmedabad–380 009 India. Tele/Fax: +91-79-2658 2962 28 E-mail: [email protected], Website: southasiadisasters.nethttp://www.aidmi.org, www.southasiadisasters.net May 2018