Padres Press Clips Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Article Source Author Pg.

Padres signaling that prove-it time is almost here SD Union Tribune Acee 2

Look at Padres' books shows debt reduction has team in position to spend SD Union Tribune Acee 5

Fernando Tatis Jr. powers up again in DR SD Union Tribune Sanders 14

Padres roster review: SD Union Tribune Sanders 16

Padres roster review: Robert Stock SD Union Tribune Sanders 19

Around the Horn: Myers front-runner for LF spot MLB.com Cassavell 22

How will McGriff do in Hall voting? MLB.com Kelly 24

Urias among MLB's Top 10 2B prospects MLB.com Rosenbaum 27

50 Moments — Almost Losing the Padres in 1973 FriarWire Center 30

#PadresOnDeck: Relievers Andres Muñoz, and Jordan FriarWire Center 33 Guerrero all Topped 100 mph in 2018

Bold Predictions for Each Top MLB Offseason Target Still Available Bleacher Report Reuter 36

Rosenthal: The Reds’ plan for ; big ideas from Scott Boras; what The Athletic Rosenthal 38 the Dodgers are thinking; more note

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‘Padres signaling that prove- it time is almost here Kevin Acee

Not all explanations are necessarily excuses.

But the Padres’ explanation of their finances certainly leaves them with no more excuses.

The day of spending is almost nigh, and they know it.

Padres Executive Chairman took the unique step this month of agreeing to open the Padres books for the Union-Tribune, which revealed a team that has addressed its financial woes in recent years as a means toward rectifying its on-field woes.

What Fowler and General Partner Peter Seidler understood full well is that it also should be a signal they were turning up the fire on their own feet — that they were spelling they have put themselves in position to spend for a competitive team.

As far back as last summer, people in the Padres organization were talking about how Nolan Arenado could fit into the organization’s long-term plan. More recently, there was a discussion about the general richness of the projected free-agent classes coming up after the next two seasons.

Now, it seems there must be merit to such chatter.

As in, there must be.

This Padres ownership — due to high-interest debt it inherited, poor decisions it approved and investments it made in building the minor league system — said it has had to put large sums of money in places other than major league payroll. Essentially, it said, the reason for that was so that it would be in a position to put larger sums of money into major league payroll when the time was right.

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They have explained now is not that time. Not just yet.

They are still evaluating many young players on the roster and believe a big expenditure on one player — for instance, — would not put them in the playoffs this season and could amount to investing $50 million or more before the rest of their roster realistically comprises the makings of a winner.

Now, two people familiar with some of the team’s maneuvering did say the Padres were intrigued by reports last week that the best offer for Machado was much lower than anticipated. The team would certainly at least kick the tires if accurate, though it was still presented as a long shot the team would sign him. Machado’s agent has called the reports of a seven-year, $175 million offer from the White Sox “completely wrong.”

Regardless of what happens with Machado, the argument that the timing of such an expenditure on such a player isn’t right won’t hold up for long.

Maybe not even as long as following the upcoming season and certainly not after 2020, when top prospect Fernando Tatis will have had more than a full season in the majors and the Padres will know plenty more about many other young players.

If Tatis and enough others aren’t what they’re expected to be, the Padres have bigger problems than being cheap. People will lose jobs, and the organization’s operations department will start anew once again.

So, for the moment, let’s postulate that the prospect portion of the Padres’ plan comes to fruition and the team trends toward contention over the next year-plus.

First, it must be noted the Padres could fill their hole at third base with a long-term solution before or during , or even during the season. They continue to look for creative ways to land a young player at that position.

Second, they will almost certainly make moves before the trade deadline involving at least one , perhaps one of their and possibly a or two. The results of those moves could both fill and open spots, in addition to further bolstering the minor league system.

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Trades, in fact, could conceivably be the preferred method of player acquisition for a team with so many coveted prospects.

Still, there will inevitably be holes in the roster. The model the Padres are following — think Kansas City, Houston, Chicago, Cleveland over the past five years — virtually requires the addition of higher-priced veterans to supplement a lower-priced homegrown core.

And while there can be consternation regarding the passing over of Machado — a rare young talent available on the free agent market, and at a position of need for the Padres — he is not the last exceptionally gifted player that will be available within the Padres’ projected window.

There will be other chances for the Padres to prove they are not the same old Padres.

The free agent classes of 2019-20 and 20-21 are fairly loaded.

Slated to join Arenado after the ’19 season are several players, including at least a half-dozen starting who could help vault the right team into contention. The class is at this point set to feature , Gerrit Cole, Scooter Gennett, Cole Hamels, Miles Mikolas, Rick Porcello, , Chris Sale and Zach Wheeler. (It could also include San Diegan .)

At the top of the class after the ’20 season could be , , Jacob deGrom, J.T. Realmuto and . , Jimmy Nelson and are also due to be free agents then, and Carlos Carrasco could be.

The class going into the 2022 season is potentially historic, with Javier Baez, , , and among those scheduled to be free agents.

The Padres would obviously have competition for these players. There is no guarantee they will sign any of them. But if they are to keep their word, it must be considered a guarantee they will try to sign some of them.

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Look at Padres' books shows debt reduction has team in position to spend

Kevin Acee

It was perhaps the least-sexy and heretofore least-heralded of any signing in Padreshistory. But it may prove to be one of the most crucial.

It involved, in fact, hundreds of signatures on thousands of pages of documents.

The transaction the Padres consider one of the final pieces in the turning point of a franchise was not orchestrated by General A.J. Preller but instead by Executive Chairman Ron Fowler, General Partner Peter Seidler, Chief Financial Officer Ronda Sedillo, President of Business Operations Erik Greupner and General Counsel Caroline Perry.

The pivotal move this group pulled off was the re-financing of the burdensome debt the team inherited from previous owner John Moores.

Gaining financial freedom has been at the crux of the Padres’ business model to this point under this ownership group, which is about to embark on its seventh full season in control.

That was the key point that came out of a 90-minute meeting earlier this month with Fowler and Sedillo in which facets of the team’s finances were shared and spending decisions were explained to the Union-Tribune.

The meeting — along with an hour-long follow-up with Sedillo — resulted from a request made to Fowler to open the Padres’ books in order to give the public an understanding of how the team has spent its money.

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The caveat from the club was that many of the numbers shared herein had to be “general.” The Padres are a private company and one of 30 members of a greater private organization. One member does not have the prerogative to make public financial data has not approved for release.

Even without divulging many specific dollar amounts, a vivid picture is painted of a team intent on getting its house in order.

With a $15 million cash call from ownership and a portion of the proceeds from a one-time MLB payment, the Padres paid a $28 million make-whole penalty as part of the 2017 refinance. That steep price was up to $40 million lower than the penalty would have been had it been paid sooner.

The refinance allowed the Padres to decrease the percentage of their annual budget that goes to interest payments — from about 5 percent to about 2 percent, a difference of $8 million per year between 2015 ($12.6 million) and ’18 ($4.3 million) — and thus go forward drawing on their line of credit at a much lower interest rate with fewer restrictions. The refinanced debt also includes much lower minimum principal payments, which adds to the Padres’ financial flexibility.

“It was ransom,” Fowler said.

He referred to the terms and interest rate on the $130 million debts/bonds balance for and the parkade construction. Moores, mired in other financial bogs outside baseball, had been compelled in 2004 to agree to backing from bondholders that included a retirement fund and insurance companies at a blended rate of 8.5 percent, about the prime rate at the time.

Getting out from under that mountain has been Fowler’s Everest. With the exception of a few detours, all paths have led to this point.

“I knew when I was working on this deal with John Moores we had to inherit this very expensive debt,” Seidler said. “The expectation was there would come a time we could refinance and it would accelerate our financial capacity. Knowing how skilled Ron is organizing a budget and how skilled Ronda is executing a budget, it’s heartening it all came together as it did.” 6

In the barest terms, the Padres’ budget over the past four years saw approximately 33 percent going toward major league salaries, approximately 32 percent to other baseball expenses (front office salaries, travel, minor league operations, etc.), approximately 22 percent to operating expenses (ballpark operation, all non-baseball departments) and about 9 percent toward debt reduction and interest payments.

They have spent 88 percent of the money they have taken in operating the team and ballpark — including local revenues (tickets, concessions, sponsorships, etc.) and revenue paid by MLB (national television, licensing, etc.) — while 4 percent has gone toward debt reduction and 5 percent toward interest payments.

The other 3 percent has gone toward capital improvements at Petco Park.

“We had to do it this way,” Fowler said. “… We’re not particularly proud of some of it.”

Given the circumstances — some of their own making and some of which predated them — the team’s ownership actually feels confident about the way they have gone about their business.

The numbers the Padres shared underscore the patience and faith the team is both exercising and asking for.

They also give context to the financial machinations during the first half-dozen years of this ownership group — and why, at the same time the value of the team has increased from the $600 million purchase price in 2012 to an estimated $1.2 billion, the Padres have made a relatively meager investment in major league personnel.

(The valuation comes from Forbes, whose annual listing of professional teams’ value, revenues and expenses is generally considered by industry insiders to be educated guessing. That approximate valuation of the franchise, however, is not disputed by the Padres.)

“There are two ways to look at it,” said David Carter, executive director of the University of Southern ’s Marshall Sports Business Institute. “The first part is they’re addressing their financial mess and over time they will be more of a

7 sustainable business on an annual basis, a more sound ongoing concern as a baseball franchise. But the other thing that’s happening is as they’re chipping away at this and are less debt laden and more financially sound, that is also going to add to the value of the (team).”

Three main points

Essentially, the peek into the Padres’ books revealed three crucial points.

First, only $35 million in capital calls from ownership and $68 million in payments from MLB’s sale of its technology arm, BAMTech, has kept the team at break even on a cash basis.

Second, the team has invested heavily in infrastructure — both in terms of its ballpark and its minor league system.

Third, and perhaps most importantly to the fan base going forward, the Padres have extricated themselves from an oppressive interest rate and are finally poised to put their money to good use — perhaps as soon as this year and almost certainly within the next two years.

“I think it’s about that fan expectation,” Carter said. “If they’re touting flexibility, I think the fans are going to say, ‘Flex for us.’ … From a fan perspective, they don’t necessarily care about franchise finances. They care about whether or not ownership is going to field a competitive team. So ownership has to turn it around and say, ‘How do we balance financial stability and the fan requirement we put a competitive product on the field?’ ”

Nearly 6½ years (and six losing seasons) after taking over, the ownership group led by Seidler and Fowler says it is in a position financially where it can make good on its promise “to field a team worthy of fans’ support with the goal of competing for a championship each season.”

That was the top ownership commitment in a sign posted in the Petco Park team store shortly after this group finalized its purchase in August 2012.

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Basing an assessment solely on major league payroll, it would be difficult to ascertain how the Padres have sought to make good on that championship aim.

The team has ranked 26th among the 30 MLB teams in payroll since 2013, according to numbers available on spotrac.com.

And while the Padres don’t ever plan to be a team that ranks in the top third in payroll, Seidler and Fowler have long pledged to spend what it takes to annually field a team that contends for a championship.

They will spend thusly, they say, when it will make a real difference in the standings.

The state of the roster plays into the timing of such expenditures. The Padres say they plan to supplement a young core of homegrown prospects with a handful of more costly veteran players. They will add those players, they say, when they believe those additions can make up the difference between what they are now and what they hope to be.

That most likely, after another season of development in 2019, will be in 2020 or ’21.

It is in the examination of their financial maneuvers over the past four years that a plan to actually be able to do so becomes evident.

Wasted time, money

The four-year period begins in 2015, following a time of transition in which the team president (Tom Garfinkel) and general manager (Josh Byrnes) the new ownership inherited were replaced and the team embarked on a plan to drastically improve Petco Park. It commences in the year in which the newly hired Preller made a splash by acquiring a number of high-priced veterans via trades and free agency.

That splurge ultimately proved ill-fated and is among the reasons for the red ink splashed around the Padres’ books.

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In addition to the initial outlay between 2015 and ’16, investments in Matt Kemp, , Melvin Upton Jr. and others have cost the Padres a net of $50.45 million since the start of 2017 — after all of those players were gone.

In 2019 and 2020, the Padres are on the hook for a net of $28.75 million payable to players no longer with the team. That number shrinks to $8.5 million in ’20 and to zero afterward, giving the Padres further financial flexibility — or money to spend on players that will actually play for them.

In addition to the money Preller’s “rock star” phase burned, that route consumed time.

The detour also played the biggest role in confirming in the mind of Seidler and Fowler that they would not deviate in that manner ever again.

It showed them there is no guarantee such a splurge will work, and it starkly illustrated how it can hurt.

The Padres bumped up payroll by $40 million in 2015 and realized just a $15 million increase in ticket and concessions/merchandise revenue for that year.

“It really convicted me,” Fowler said. “I didn’t need much change in my belief, but it convinced me that the business model didn’t work. We had a blip in terms of revenue … (and) we dug a big hole for ourselves.”

Of course, that experiment did not lead to winning. The Padres were 10 games out by the All-Star break in 2015, by which time they already had fired manager Bud Black, and finished 74-88. They started selling off the expensive parts the following offseason and had subtracted every one of the high-priced additions by August of that season.

The team acknowledges sustained success on the field can lead to a swell in receipts. That is why, they say, it was crucial to get to the point where they can invest in veteran on-field talent.

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Chief toward attaining that financial flexibility was paying down $77 million (of the inherited total of $193 million) of debt since taking over. Of that, $45 million came out of the $50 million BAMTech payment last year.

The other significant part of that plan was an investment in a minor league system that has over the past three years come to be seen almost universally as the best in baseball with 10 of the game’s top 100 prospects according to MLB.com.

Out of the ashes of 2015, the Padres created an entirely new plan.

Foremost, that required a $79.8 million expenditure in the international market in 2016 — $42.3 million in signing bonuses paid to teenagers from Latin American countries and a $37.5 million penalty for going over their allotted pool of money to do so. Additionally, the Padres paid almost $13 million in bonuses to their amateur draft picks that season. (To help pay the overage penalty, they made a cash call to all members of the ownership group, to the tune of $20 million.)

The idea was a number of the highly touted young players would be ready to make up the bulk of a contending team by 2020 or ’21, about the time the Padres would have the financial freedom to round out the roster. Further, the continual re-stocking of the system is meant to make winning a perennial possibility.

That is in contrast to the Padres’ history, which includes five playoff appearances in 50 seasons. Essentially, theirs has been a lightning-in-a-bottle approach, where trades, the occasional free agent and the even rarer homegrown talent conspire for a contending season or two at a time. The relatively haphazard spending from year to year and lack of a fruitful farm system created a revolving door of sorts for many of the team’s high-priced players.

“We could probably do one of two things,” Fowler said. “We could probably afford to spend more and still not be near the top (in payroll) over the long term and win somewhere between 78 and 84 games each year. … Or we can do what we are doing. That is to have a lot of young guys who we think are very talented, get them some experience, get them up here, surround them with a couple veteran leaders who can do what needs to be done and continue to add.”

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Said Seidler: “I think we’re on the verge of that coming together in the next couple years — and over the next decade.”

Improving the ballpark

While waiting for that plan to come to fruition, the Padres set out to improve a facet of the fan experience they could control right away.

Since 2014, the Padres have made more than $40 million in stadium improvements, including the big scoreboard and LED ribbons, new public-address system, right-field scoreboard, solar panels and LED sports lights all around the ballpark. They are also in the midst of spending approximately $13 million over a five-year period (through 2022) for structural steel refurbishing.

The biggest portion of the Padres’ operating expenses of more than $68 million per year, which covers virtually every department that isn’t baseball related, is ballpark maintenance. The Padres paid between 78 percent and 83 percent of the maintenance costs over the past four years, their portion ranging from a low of around $14.5 million to a high of nearly $22 million, with the city paying the rest.

“They grossly underestimated how much it was going to cost to maintain this park at the time (it was built),” said Sedillo, who joined the Padres in January 2013.

“Our goal when we took over,” Fowler said, “was over the next 10 years to get the ballpark looking like it was five years old and keep it there.”

To that end, they have other projects planned or in the works, including remodeling in the Omni Club and replacing 6,200 seats. They moved up the distribution of those expenditures and the bulk of the steel work.

Said Fowler: “We can’t have that much of that expense out there in ’20 and ’21 when we’re starting to build, so we moved some money forward for this year.”

The Padres’ initial budget projections for 2019 had them losing upwards of $16 million. They have that number down to between $8 million and $9 million. They will call on their line of credit to get to even. 12

Player payroll for ’19 is pretty close to set, though Fowler allows it could grow if Preller convinces him a player (or players) would help them substantially. The Padres remain actively listening and trying to work trades.

But making a move that greatly increases payroll now is highly unlikely.

The extended time frame pains Fowler, whose desire to win is tempered only by his love of debt reduction and his dogmatic faith that the latter will help lead to the former. It is likewise difficult for Sedillo, a lifelong baseball fan and self-described “wannabe GM,” though her numbers-based belief in the soundness of the plan tempers her discontent.

The 50-60 hours the pair spends each fall winnowing down numbers and lining up budget projections serve to convince them splurging for a player before the right time is the wrong thing.

“That’s abandoning the process we signed up for,” Fowler said. “I would say Ronda and I are probably two of the most frustrated people, because we’re fans first and happen to work for the baseball team second. So our patience level is not the same as a lot of the people.”

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Fernando Tatis Jr. powers up again in DR

Jeff Sanders

Fernando Tatis Jr. was at it again Monday night in the Dominican Republic.

The Padres’ top prospect homered in the first in Estrella’s 3-2 win, helping his team take a 3-1 lead over Este in the best-of-seven championship series.

Tatis also struck out three times in the game. He is hitting .214 with one walk, eight and three RBIs through the first four games after earning MVP honors in the previous round.

Game 5 is set for 4:30 p.m. (PST) Tuesday at Estrellas.

Mexican winter league

• 2B Esteban Quiroz went 1-for-3 with an RBI, two walks and two runs scored in Obregon’s 8-3 win over Jalisco on Monday in the championship series opener. Quiroz was acquired in November from the Red Sox for RHP Colten Brewer. He .255/.422/.520 with six homers and 18 RBIs in 32 games in the regular winter campaign and hit .308/.410/.481 in 14 playoff games.

Venezuelan winter league

• C (Lake Elsinore) went 0-for-4 in last week’s series-clinching loss for Magallanes. Torrens hit .222 over six games in the semifinals.

Puerto Rican winter league

• OF Aldemar Burgos (Fort Wayne) is hitting .206 in round-robin play with Carolina.

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Australian winter league

• OF Michael Gettys (San Antonio) is hitting .293/.375/.559 with seven homers, eight steals and 33 RBIs in 40 games with Adelaide. • SS Jarryd Dale (AZL) is hitting .257 over his last 10 games, lifting his batting line to .181/.271/.202 through 32 games with Melbourne. He has five RBIs and four steals.

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Padres roster review: Matt Strahm

Jeff Sanders

Sizing up the Padres’ 40-man roster, from A to Z, heading into the 2019 season:

MATT STRAHM

• Position(s): Left-handed pitcher • 2019 age: 27 • Bats/throws: R / L • Height/weight: 6-foot-3 / 185 pounds • Acquired: Via trade with Kansas City in July 2017 • Contract status: Earned $552,700 in 2018; will not be arbitration-eligible until 2020 at the earliest • Key stats: 3-4, 0 saves, 2.05 ERA, 69 strikeouts, 21 walks, 0.98 WHIP, .178 opponent average (41 games, 5 starts, 61 1/3 )

STAT TO NOTE

• .176 – The batting average that Strahm yielded to opposing hitters in 2018, ninth-lowest among pitchers with at least 60 innings. His .073 opponent average with runners in (minimum 45 batters faced) was the lowest in the majors.

TRENDING

• Up – To the casual observer, Strahm was damaged goods when he arrived in the trade that sent RHPs and and LHP to the Royals in the summer of 2017. He’d undergone surgery to repair a torn left patellar tendon earlier in the year and was still in

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recovery, from a leg strength standpoint, upon walking into the Padres clubhouse the following spring. As such, Strahm opened 2018 at Double-A San Antonio and paired a 2.51 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings to force his way onto the big league staff. Once there, Strahm continued to assert himself as potentially the most valuable piece in that Royals trade (the jury will be out on 19-year-old Esteury Ruiz even after a 12-homer, 49-steal season until he makes the majors). In his third year in the majors, Strahm established career- bests in wins, innings, strikeouts, WHIP, rate (10.1 per nine), walk rate (3.1 per nine) and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Strahm predominantly pitched out of the but showed plenty to dream on in his five cameo starts, where he struck out 18 in 13 1/3 innings (1.35 ERA) and limited the opposition to a .149/.200/.255 batting line.

2019 OUTLOOK

• For all of his success in 2019, Strahm still wasn’t running, full-go, on his repaired knee until August. His progression continued from there and through the offseason as his focus shifted to weight gaining. Strahm was valuable in the Padres’ bullpen in 2019. He could provide an even bigger lift if he can translate his numbers to the rotation and the Padres intend to give him a 100-percent- recovered Strahm every opportunity to win a rotation job this spring.

PADRES POWER RANKINGS

(Currently 40 players on the 40-man roster; the list below reflects only the players reviewed thus far in the series)

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Francisco Mejia 7. Franchy Cordero 17

8. 9. 10. 11. Ian Kinsler 12. Eric Lauer 13. Matt Strahm 14. 15. Garrett Richards 16. Jose Castillo 17. 18. 19. Robert Stock 20. 21. 22. Miguel Diaz 23. Jacob Nix 24. 25. Greg Garcia 26. Austin Allen 27.Pedro Avila 28. Edward Olivares 29. Gerardo Reyes 30. Luis Perdomo 31. Bryan Mitchell 32. Jose Pirela 33. Brett Kennedy 34. 35. Javy Guerra

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Removed from the roster

• (claimed by the Rangers) 18

Padres roster review: Robert Stock

Jeff Sanders

Sizing up the Padres’ 40-man roster, from A to Z, heading into the 2019 season:

ROBERT STOCK

• Position(s): Right-handed reliever • 2019 Opening Day age: 29 • Bats/throws: L / R • Height/weight: 6-foot-1 / 214 pounds • Acquired: Signed to a minor league deal in November 2017. • Contract status: Will not be arbitration-eligible until 2022 • Key stats: 1-1, 0 saves, 2.50 ERA, 38 strikeouts, 13 walks, 1.26 WHIP, .247 opponent average (32 games, 39 2/3 innings)

STAT TO NOTE

• 97.43– The average perceived velocity of Stock’s four-seam , 11th-best in the majors in 2018. No other Padres pitcher averaged better than 95 mph last year.

TRENDING

• Up – A second-round pick out of USC in 2009, Stock’s professional career began as a in the Cardinals’ system after penning a decorated amateur resume. But struggles with the bat pushed Stock to the mound full-time by 2012 and his path from there wound from St. Louis’ farm system to Pittsburgh’s to independent ball to Cincinnati’s. The Padres signed Stock to a minor league deal before the 2018 season, invited him to big league camp and were

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impressed with the big velocity numbers that Stock threw up in Cactus League games, which included the first in-game 100 mph fastball of his career. His secondary options – a and a change-up – continued to tick up during a season-opening assignment to Double-A San Antonio and promotion to - A El Paso. All told, Stock struck out 42 in 37 1/3 innings in the minors in 2018 (1.69 ERA) to earn the first big league call-up of his career and, outside three rocky outing in the majors, Stock continued to pile up strikeouts in the majors. Better yet, Stock, for as hard as he threw (see above), was better the longer he threw as he posted a 1.17 ERA in games in which he fetched at least four outs.

2019 OUTLOOK

• Stock earned his first big league win with three innings in an extra- inning game against Colorado in late August and completed at least two innings in eight of his 32 games. Given his success in longer outings, the Padres could explore deploring the hard-throwing Stock in those situations more frequently in 2019, especially if they do not come out of this offseason with significant upgrades to one of the worst rotations in the game. Either way, Stock has earned a significant role as the hardest thrower in a young bullpen that emerged as a strength in the wake of last summer’s trade.

PADRES POWER RANKINGS

(Currently 40 players on the 40-man roster; the list below reflects only the players reviewed thus far in the series)

1. Wil Myers 2. Eric Hosmer 3. Austin Hedges 4. Hunter Renfroe 5. Manuel Margot 6. Francisco Mejia 7. Franchy Cordero 8. Joey Lucchesi 20

9. Chris Paddack 10.Franmil Reyes 11. Ian Kinsler 12. Eric Lauer 13. Dinelson Lamet 14. Garrett Richards 15. Jose Castillo 16. Craig Stammen 17. Anderson Espinoza 18. Robert Stock 19. Travis Jankowski 20. Robbie Erlin 21. Miguel Diaz 22. Jacob Nix 23. Phil Maton 24. Greg Garcia 25. Austin Allen 26. Pedro Avila 27.Edward Olivares 28. Gerardo Reyes 29. Luis Perdomo 30. Bryan Mitchell 31. Jose Pirela 32. Brett Kennedy 33. Ty France 34. Javy Guerra

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Removed from the roster

• Carlos Asuaje (claimed by the Rangers)

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Around the Horn: Myers front-runner for LF spot

Versatile defender leads Mariners' logjam of outfield hopefuls heading into Spring Trainingp. 21st, 2018 By AJ Cassavell MLB.com @AJCassavell

With Spring Training on the horizon, MLB.com is taking an in-depth look at the 2019 Padres, breaking the team down position-by-position. Today we preview the left fielders.

SAN DIEGO -- For months, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Padres general manager A.J. Preller would deal from his outfield depth.

Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes are all righty-hitting corner with similar profiles at the plate. Travis Jankowski and Franchy Cordero are also capable of playing all three outfield spots, and it's still possible Francisco Mejia transitions to a part-time left-field role as well.

Preller, if he doesn't make a trade, simply has too many options for the Opening Day roster. Plus, he has glaring holes at third base and in the rotation, which would seem to make a deal even more likely.

And yet, it's nearly February, and the Padres haven't pared down their outfield options. That's telling.

San Diego, sources say, has regularly fielded calls about its outfield excess this offseason. But this much is clear: Preller values his own outfielders more than rival GMs do right now.

There's no reason to expect that to change, and the Padres could enter camp with six full-time outfielders for, at most, five roster places. Keeping the focus on left field, we can eliminate Reyes (who played right field exclusively last season) and Manuel Margot (center) from the conversation.

That leaves Myers and Renfroe as the likeliest starters in left. It's possible (and maybe even likely) that both are in the Opening Day lineup, in which case, Renfroe would probably shift to right field where his otherworldly arm plays so well.p. 6th, 2018

Myers is clearly the early favorite to start in left field, and he's going to play there exclusively. That's quite the shift from his first four seasons in San Diego, where he's been anything but settled. Myers started as a center fielder in 2015, moved to first base in '16, then spent time in both outfield corners and at third last season.

There's still a possibility Myers is traded. But if he isn't, he'll head to Peoria, Ariz., with a crystal- clear vision of what his role will be.

Projected starter: Myers

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Potential backups: Renfroe, Cordero, Jankowski, Mejia, Jose Pirela

Top 30 prospects: No. 15 , No. 16 Tirso Ornelas, No. 19 Jeisson Rosario, No. 27 Grant Little, No. 28. Edward Olivares

Best-case scenario Myers is healthy. (That's no small feat, given that Myers missed nearly half of last season while on the disabled list with three different ailments.) After last summer's ill-fated move to third base, Myers thrives with a more settled position. He rediscovers his All-Star form from 2016 and puts forth the dynamic 30-homer, 30-steal season he's been shooting for.

With Myers entrenched in left field, the Padres trade one of their young, affordable right-field options in a package for a big-time . Let's say it's Renfroe. That leaves Reyes, Cordero and Margot to split time among the other two spots, while Jankowski serves as a speed threat and a defensive replacement.. 29th, 2018

Worst-case scenario Myers struggles with the same inconsistency that's plagued him during his tenure in San Diego. He shows flashes of his All-Star self, but he mostly slumps at the plate, carrying over his poor results from the final two months of the 2018 season.

Still, the Padres have a lot of money committed to Myers -- $64 million over the next four seasons, to be exact. So he keeps playing, taking valuable development time from promising youngsters like Reyes and Cordero. Ultimately, there aren't enough at-bats to go around, and none of the corner-outfield options truly thrives.

A reasonable prediction Consider this for a moment: The Padres have six outfielders they feel are capable of starting. One of those outfielders is coming off surgery to repair a torn ligament in his knee (Reyes). Another had elbow surgery and missed the final four months last season (Cordero). A third spent half the year on the DL (Myers). What are the chances all six make it through camp unscathed? Probably pretty small.

For the season's first few months, the Padres use their outfield depth to combat whatever injury they're dealing with at the moment. By the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline, a dozen teams are in search of outfield help, and that's when San Diego can finally clear its logjam with a trade or two.

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How will McGriff do in Hall voting?

Mo, Edgar, Doc right on track for election; Moose sits on the bubble56 AM PST

By Matt Kelly MLB.com @mattkellyMLB

The Hot Stove has dominated conversation this winter, but believe it or not, it's almost Hall of Fame time.

The National Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the results of the Baseball Writers' Association of America ballot today, live on MLB Network and simulcast on MLB.com (coverage begins at 3 p.m. ET, with the announcement shortly after 6 p.m.), and the baseball world will find out who will join selections Harold Baines and Lee Smith in the Class of 2019. This year's class figures to follow suit with the last five elections that featured at least two BBWAA inductees, further clearing the ballot "logjam" that has characterized the most recent voting cycles.

It seems that more and more BBWAA voters are making their ballots public with each passing year, and so while we don't know this year's results for certain, the 200-plus ballots aggregated by tracker Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs) can help us make educated guesses (as a reminder, players need to be named on at least 75 percent of ballots to gain election). Scanning those public ballots, here are the storylines emerging from this year's Hall vote.an. 15th, 2019

Mo still has a chance at perfection Ken Griffey Jr. came oh-so-close to being the first unanimous Hall of Fame electee when he garnered a record 99.3 percent of the BBWAA vote in 2016, but longtime Yankees Mariano Rivera could claim that honor -- or at least break Griffey's record. Rivera's name had appeared on all public ballots compiled by Thibodaux as of Monday, for some obvious reasons: He was an essential part of five World Series championship teams in , owns the all- time saves record and also the best league-adjusted ERA+(205, where 100 represents the league average) in history by a wide margin.

But there's a reason why legends like Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron and (and countless others) were not voted in unanimously; getting roughly 400 people to agree on anything is nearly impossible. At least one voter will likely omit Rivera for a variety of factors, including his role as a reliever, a strategic decision to give his vote to another candidate more in need or to simply hold the line that no player should go in with a perfect vote. That won't take anything away from Rivera, who was destined for Cooperstown the moment he stepped off the mound for the last time in 2013.

There was some uncertainty whether the late Roy Halladay would also be a first-ballot choice, but the longtime ace now seems like a lock with his current percentage hovering around 94 percent.

This could be the year for Edgar and Moose The past 10 players who have received between 70-74 percent of a BBWAA vote gained election the very next year, and Edgar Martinez looks like he'll be No. 11. The Mariners legend, who earned 70.4 percent of last year's vote, has already gained a net 17 ballots from returning

24 voters. He now looks like a sure bet with more than 90 percent of the public ballots going his way.n. 15th, 2019

Mike Mussina has also gained a net 17 votes from 2018, when he improved his chances significantly by earning 63.5 percent. The former Orioles and Yankees stalwart needs to maintain that pace, as Thibodaux estimates Mussina will need to land on roughly 70 percent of the unknown ballots. That would give the Hall a four-player BBWAA class for just the fifth time ever, but it would be the third such class within the last five years.

Two ballot mainstays are changing the conversation Larry Walker entered the BBWAA ballot in 2011 as 's first major test case in Hall of Fame voting, and now the conversation around Walker seems to be changing in his penultimate year of consideration. Many voters are recognizing Walker's excellent numbers away from Denver's mile-high altitude (along with his performances in Montreal and St. Louis), and that's helped him surge in the polls. The popular has already gained 37 net votes -- more than any other returning candidate -- from 2018, when he finished at just 34.1 percent. Walker stands to enjoy the same final-year push as Martinez and Mussina in 2020 if he can remain somewhere near his current 67-percent pace on public ballots. His case will likely have a lot of bearing on fellow Rockies great Todd Helton, who's currently hovering around 20 percent in his ballot debut.

Slugging Fred McGriff is trending at roughly 36 percent and won't get into the Hall this year, but he should get serious consideration in his first Veterans Committee cycle (the "Today's Game" era electorate in 2022) thanks to a significant bump. McGriff has gained a net 32 ballots in his 10th and final year of eligibility as voters have begun to recognize his consistency and clutch postseason performances at the precipice of baseball's "Steroid Era."

The debate continues Speaking of that high-octane era, the Hall conversation wouldn't be complete without mention of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Their numbers would be unassailable if there weren't questions as to how they attained them, and that complicated question has split the electorate ever since the pair landed on the ballot in 2013. Bonds and Clemens are currently trending right near the 75-percent threshold, but the pair has gained just three votes apiece from 2018, when they finished at 56.4 percent and 57.3 percent, respectively. They'll need much more than that, since private voters have historically left Bonds and Clemens off their ballots. More ballot stagnation would mean the superstars' candidacies could truly come down to the wire if they don't gain election before their final year of eligibility in 2022.11th, 2018

Curt Schilling is another player who could already be in the Hall if not for off-field considerations, but his 13 net votes gained give him an outside chance of election as soon as this year. Schilling, like Bonds and Clemens, has until 2022 to get over the hump.

These stars are on the bubble Former Yankees great Andy Pettitte started and won more postseason games than any pitcher in history, but nevertheless he's in some danger of being a one-and-done candidate. Pettitte has been named on 6.8 percent of public ballots to this point, and needs to stay above 5 percent to remain on the ballot. Ten-time Gold Glove Award winner is also in jeopardy, having received roughly 9 percent of the vote so far. Fellow first-timers Lance Berkman, Roy

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Oswalt and Michael Young will all need significant help to stick around for 2020. an. 3rd, 2019

There are a handful of interesting cases in the middle of the pack. has gained just four points over his 22-percent total in 2018, and he needs to build significant momentum moving forward. Another pair of 500-homer hitters in Gary Sheffield and Sammy Sosa remain stagnant between 10 and 15 percent, and Jeff Kent and closer Billy Wagner remain stuck under 20 percent. Defensive stalwarts Scott Rolen and Omar Vizquel have gained a net 15 and 14 votes, respectively, with eight years of BBWAA consideration left.

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Urias among MLB's Top 10 2B prospects

By Mike Rosenbaum MLB.com @GoldenSombrero

MLB Pipeline will unveil its 2019 Top 100 Prospects list on Saturday, with a one-hour show on MLB Network at 8 p.m. ET. Leading up to the release, we look at baseball's top 10 prospects at each position.

MLB Pipeline ended last week with a look at our Top 10 first-base prospects for 2019, a group teeming with future sluggers, some on the cusp of the Major Leagues.

Our new list of the Top 10 second basemen has even more players nearly ready for the big leagues, as well as some familiar names, with Keston Hiura and Luis Urias headlining the five holdovers from last year's list.

Urias, Garrett Hampson and Brandon Lowe all reached the Majors in 2018, and they all seemed poised to make a greater impact in the upcoming season. They also account for half of the six total players on the list who are expected to arrive in the Majors in '19 -- a group that could grow even deeper should a few others surpass projections.

Additionally, many second basemen who made our Top 10 list in previous years have gone on to have successful careers. Among MLB Pipeline's Top 10 lists for position players dating back to 2011, second basemen have been the third-most valuable group with 308.0 Wins Above Replacement, trailing only outfielders (496.7) and (569.5).

The Top 10 (ETA) 1. Keston Hiura, Brewers (2019) 2. Luis Urias, Padres (2019) 3. , White Sox (2020) 4. Vidal Brujan, Rays (2020) 5. Garrett Hampson, Rockies (2019) 6. Jeter Downs, Dodgers (2021) 7. Brandon Lowe, Rays (2019) 8. Cavan Biggio, Blue Jays (2019) 9. Jahmai Jones, Angels (2020) 10. Isan Diaz, Marlins (2019)

Top tools

Best Hitter: Hiura, Urias (70) Hiura led NCAA Division I hitters with a .442 average as a UC Irvine junior and was widely considered by scouts as the top pure hitter in the 2017 Draft. After posting a .371 average in his pro debut, Hiura reached Double-A in his first full season, hitting .293 across two levels, and then raked in the en route to circuit MVP honors. Urias won the batting title (.330) and MVP award as a 19-year-old in 2016 and owns a .306 career average in 467 Minor League games.n. 15th, 2019

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Best Power: Hiura (60) Hiura recorded 52 extra-base hits including 13 home runs in his first full season, and he's poised to tap into even more of his plus raw power as he gains experience and refines his approach. He projects to hit for power to all fields, too, thanks to a preternatural feel for barreling the baseball with a short, impactful right-handed swing that consistently produces loud contact.

Fastest Runner: Brujan (70) Brujan's 112 runs scored and 55 steals were the first- and second-highest totals in the Minors, respectively, in 2018. That he hits for average, reaches base at a high clip and doesn't strike out much provides Brujan with ample opportunities to wreak havoc on pitchers and defenses with his wheels.n. 15th, 2019

Best Arm: Urias, Brujan, Downs (55) The keystone doesn't require the type of arm strength needed for the left side of the infield, so it shouldn't be a surprise that no player on this list has a true plus arm. That said, Urias, Brujan and Downs all have seen time at in their respective careers because they have above- average arms.15th, 2019

Best Defender: Madrigal, Hampson (60) Madrigal could be deployed by the White Sox as a shortstop because he has the hands and actions for the position, but his average arm makes him a better long-term fit at second base, where he could be a Gold Glove Award winner. The same goes for the speedy, slick-fielding Hampson, who has seen time at both middle-infield spots.15th, 2019

Superlatives

Highest Ceiling: Hiura Hiura's ability to hit for both average and power makes him one of the more exciting offensive prospects in the Minors, and with just one full season under his belt, he's only begun to scratch the surface of his potential. He's a future middle-of-the-lineup producer and could be the best second baseman in baseball during his prime.

Highest Floor: Madrigal The White Sox made Madrigal the No. 4 pick in last year's Draft because there's very little doubt that he'll be an everyday player in the Majors. In addition to his aforementioned defense, Madrigal also was one of the better hitters in his class, with an approach and contact skills that will have him hitting atop a lineup for years to come.

Rookie of the Year Candidate: Urias Urias made his big league debut last August and showed he could do a little bit of everything over parts of 12 games before a hamstring injury prematurely ended his season. Assuming he makes the Opening Day roster, he could have an early advantage in the ROY race based on his ability to hit near the top of an order and make everyday contributions on both sides of the ball.

Highest Riser: Downs Signed by the Reds for $1,822,500 after they selected him with the No. 32 overall pick in the 2017 Draft, Downs posted 13 homers and 37 steals in his first full pro season as a 19-year-old in the . That power-speed combo caught the attention of the Dodgers,

28 and they acquired him in December as part of a package for Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood and Kyle Farmer.

Humblest Beginning: Urias Urias was a 16-year-old playing in the Mexican League when the Padres purchased his rights for $100,000 from Mexico City in December 2013. He's quickly proved a bargain for the club, excelling as a younger player at every stop in his career en route to the Major Leagues. He's one of two players on the list who wasn't taken in a Draft.

Most to Prove: Jones The Angels' second-round pick from 2015 reached Double-A as a 20-year-old last season, but, overall, he hit just .239 across two levels. A shift from the outfield to second base likely played a part in that, and he'll need to make further defensive improvements to remain at the position. Jones does, however, have at least average tools across the board, including plus speed, and he'll carry momentum from a solid Arizona Fall League campaign into 2019.

Keep An Eye On: Kevin Kramer, Pirates A revamped swing and an emphasis on hitting the ball in the air enabled Kramer to tap into his power last season, as he connected on a career-high 15 home runs and finished second in the Triple-A in both average (.311) and doubles (35) before making his big league debut in September.

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50 Moments — Almost Losing the Padres in 1973 By Bill Center

San Diego almost lost the Padres in 1973.

By almost, let’s just say a deal was done to move the Padres to Washington, D.C., in 1974. In fact, there was speculation that the Padres might move after the All-Star break of the 1973 season.

It was no secret that founding owner C. Arnholt Smith was under financial stress at the end of 1972. As relief, Smith sought buyers for the Padres without concern about a new owner’s plan for the four-year-old National League .

Clearly, the Padres had not been a success in San Diego. In four seasons, the Padres had never won more than 63 games and the average annual season attendance was 610,000 with a low of 540,085 in 1971.

Then the other shoe fell on May 27, 1973, when it was announced the Padres had been sold to Washington, D.C., banking and grocery magnate Joseph Danzansky and two partners for $12 million — or only $1.8 million more than Smith had paid to the National League four years to the day earlier to launch the Padres as an expansion team.

Danzansky’s plans were clear from the day he bought the Padres. He intended to move the ballclub to Washington, D.C., for the start of the 1974 season.

The sale cast a dark shadow over San Diego. Attendance for the lame duck club plummeted further, leading some baseball officials calling for an accelerated move to Washington, D.C., before the end of the 1973 season.

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Meanwhile, Padres general manager , the son of Padres President , moved to Washington, D.C., shortly after the end of the 1973 season to begin planning for the move to the nation’s capital.

The Washington team would be re-named the Nationals (Pandas was also a suggestion) and Danzansky was planning on naming Frank Robinson the manager if he could get the Hall of Famer to retire as the California Angels’ .

Padres pitcher Dave Freisleben modeled a uniform with “Washington” across the front. produced two sets of baseball cards for “Padres” players for 1974 — one with the player wearing a Padres uniform and the other with players sporting a “W” on the cap.

Game, set and match?

Not exactly.

Shortly after the Padres sale to Danzansky was announced, San Diego City attorney John Witt and his staff drafted a series of suits to be filed against Smith, the Danzansky ownership group, the National League and other defendants.

The suits filed by Witt did not seek to block the sale and the move. That plan would most likely have been unsuccessful.

But Witt sought damages through anti-trust civil actions. There were, after all, still 15 years to go on the Padres lease for . Witt wanted the city paid $72 million from Smith or Danzansky’s group for future rent. Then there was the matter of lost parking fees and a share of the concessions over the length of the lease. The total reached $84 million and was continuing to climb.

Although National League owners unanimously approved the sale and transfer of the Padres on Dec. 6, 1973, and President Nixon sent a letter 31 of thanks to National League President , the sale was falling apart as both sides felt the financial pressure being applied by Witt.

Danzansky backed out. The Padres weren’t moving to Washington, D.C.

But the Padres were still for sale.

At the end of 1973, Hollywood Park owner Majorie (Marje) Everett headed a group of eight other -area investors who reached an agreement to buy the Padres and keep them in San Diego. But on Jan. 10, 1974, National League owners voted against having a racetrack owner owning a baseball team.

The Padres were again for sale and the National League was considering running the franchise for the 1974 season when . . .

50 Padres Stories (in chronological order)

1.National League votes to expand into Montreal and San Diego (May 27, 1968); 2. Padres stocked with players in National League expansion draft (Oct. 14, 1968). 3. Padres win their Major League debut (April 8, 1969). 4. removed from a no-hitter (July 21, 1970). 5. ’s five-homer, 13-RBI doubleheader in Atlanta (Aug. 1, 1972).

6.1973, the year San Diego nearly lost the Padres.

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#PadresOnDeck: Relievers Andres Muñoz, Gerardo Reyes and Jordan Guerrero all Topped 100 mph in 2018 By Bill Center

Today’s three relief pitchers featured on our continuing Padres On Deck series have one thing in common.

Andres Muñoz, Gerardo Reyes and Jordan Guerrero are three of the six pitchers in the Padres’ family who hit 100 mph with their during the 2018 season.

If you reach triple-digit velocity, you are on a club’s radar.

A closer look at Muñoz, Reyes and Guerrero:

— Andres Muñoz is currently ranked 22nd among the Padres’ Top-30 prospects as well as the top on the list. The 6-foot-2, 165- pound right-hander from Los Mochis, Sinoloa, Mexico, turned 20 on Jan. 16.

Muñoz has frequently topped 100 mph over each of the past two seasons and once topped 100 mph 10 times in a span of 13 pitches.

Muñoz completed the 2018 season with 20 appearances with Double-A San Antonio, where, as a 19-year-old, he was more than five years below the average age for a player.

And Muñoz excelled with the Missions.

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He had a 2–1 record with seven saves in eight opportunities with a 0.95 average, a 1.16 WHIP and a .175 opponents’ batting average over 19 innings. He allowed two runs on 11 hits and 13 walks against 28 strikeouts — or 13 ¼ strikeouts per nine innings.

Muñoz got a delayed start to the 2018 season with Short-Season - A Tri-City where he didn’t allow a hit or a run over 5 2/3 innings in five appearances. He issued two walks with nine strikeouts — or 14.3 strikeouts per nine innings.

Muñoz signed with the Padres in 2015 and made his professional debut with 16 appearances in the Arizona Fall League in 2016. He split the 2017 season between Tri-City and Single-A Fort Wayne.

— Gerardo Reyes, 25, was added to the Padres’ 40-man roster in November after he followed a strong season split between Advanced Single-A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio with a sterling off-season effort with Obregon in the Mexican Pacific League.

Reyes, 25, made 19 appearances with Obregon. He worked 18 innings, allowing no runs on nine hits and seven walks with 20 strikeouts. In addition to a perfect ERA, Reyes had a 0.89 WHIP with Obregon as well as a .089 opponents’ batting average.

Reyes had made 45 appearances during the regular season with an overall 2.77 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP and a .216 opponents’ batting average over 55 1/3 innings. He allowed a total of 24 runs (17 earned) on 43 hits and 29 walks with 69 strikeouts. He had a 2.4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while averaging 11 ¼ strikeouts per nine innings.

Thirty-one of those 45 appearances were at the Double-A level, where he had a 3.00 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and a .222 opponents’ batting average.

A native of Victoria, Mexico, came to the Padres on on Dec. 19, 2014, in the same trade that brought Will Myers and reliever Jose Castillo to the Padres. The right-hander is 5-foot-11 and 160 pounds. 34

Reyes was a member of the California League All-Star team while with Lake Elsinore in 2017. He spent the entire season with the Storm, posting a 2.63 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP and a .240 opponents’ batting average in 61 2/3 innings over 47 appearances. He had 65 strikeouts in 61 2/3 innings.

— Jordan Guerrero, 22, was the Padres’ sixth-round pick in the 2015 Draft out of Polk State University in Florida. The 6-foot-5, 290-pound right-hander is a native of Sarasota, Fla.

Understandable for a pitcher of his size, Guerrero has advanced slowly. He spent his first professional summer in 2015 in the Arizona Rookie League and the second with Tri-City. He then split the 2017 and 2018 seasons between Tri-City and Fort Wayne.

He made 42 appearances last season with 22 with Tri-City and 20 with the TinCaps. Overall, Guerrero had a 1.70 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and a .190 opponents’ batting average in 42 1/3 innings with 46 strikeouts — for an average of 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings and a 2.6-to-1 to strikeout-to-walk ratio.

But after posting a 0.00 ERA with a 0.72 WHIP and a .125 opponents’ batting average in 22 1/3 innings with the Dust Devils (with a 4.1-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio), Guerrero had a 3.60 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP and a .253 opponents’ batting average at Fort Wayne.

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Bold Predictions for Each Top MLB Offseason Target Still Available JOEL REUTER It's going to be another busy February on the MLB free-agent and trade markets. Among the notable players who found new homes last February: J.D. Martinez (BOS), Eric Hosmer (SD), (CHC), (MIN), Corey Dickerson (PIT), Steven Souza Jr. (ARI), Andrew Cashner (BAL), Todd Frazier (NYM), Logan Morrison (MIN), (MIL), Jaime Garcia (TOR), Derek Holland (SF), Sergio Romo (TB), Bud Norris (STL), Jesse Chavez (TEX). This year's market still has some similarly huge dominos waiting to fall. Young superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are weighing their options. The starting pitching market caught fire and then smoldered without Dallas Keuchel finding a new contract. Closer may have scared some teams off with an unreasonable initial asking price. And the oft- injured A.J. Pollock and extremely versatile Marwin Gonzalez are also still unemployed. Meanwhile, on the trade market, Miami Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto and ace Madison Bumgarner look like the two stars most likely to still be on the move. So let's make some bold predictions about each of those eight players, shall we? Marwin Gonzalez: Padres Get a Versatile Long-Term Piece In today's game, a premium is placed on defensive versatility, so it's not surprising Marwin Gonzalez has received widespread interest. Jon Heyman of Fancred reported at the start of the offseason that "everyone but one team" had at least some level of interest.

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As the offseason has progressed, a handful of those teams have filled the holes that signing Gonzalez would have addressed—for example, the landed to play second base—but it stands to reason there is still a robust market for the super-utility man. Gonzalez, 29, has posted a 111 OPS+ over the past five seasons with the , racking up 11.5 WAR while serving as a Swiss army knife on defense. The are one team that has continued to show interest, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic. With top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. expected to be ready by midseason, the Padres are looking for a stopgap shortstop to replace departing free agent Freddy Galvis. From a metrics standpoint, Gonzalez has graded out best as an outfielder. That said, he's seen the most action at shortstop (2,243 innings) over the course of his career, so he's more than capable of holding down the everyday job for part of the season. After that, he could return to the super-utility role wherein he's thrived to serve as a building block for a San Diego squad on the rise. It will likely take a four-year pact with an annual value approaching $10 million.

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Rosenthal: The Reds’ plan for Sonny Gray; big ideas from Scott Boras; what the Dodgers are thinking; more notes

By Ken Rosenthal

To understand why the Reds are willing to give right-hander Sonny Gray a contract extension before he ever wears their uniform, consider what happened last month when the team attempted to sign free-agent left-hander J.A. Happ. The Reds met Happ’s request for a three-year deal and offered him the largest guarantee, according to major-league sources. But Happ agreed to a two-year, $34 million contract with the Yankees, plus a vesting option at $17 million if he makes 27 starts or pitches 165 innings in 2020. The average annual value of the Yankees’ deal was higher, sources said. At 36, Happ might simply have wanted a more certain contender. But let’s not ignore the Reds’ other obvious obstacle: Great American Ballpark. Great American is not entirely deserving of its reputation for being extremely hitter-friendly — over the past five seasons, it averaged a ranking of 11th in park factor, a metric that measures the rate of stats at home against the rate of stats on the road. Yet, even a groundball specialist such as free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel almost certainly would prefer to play in a better pitching environment, unless he lacked better options. Enter Gray, who for whatever reason crumbled when pitching at Yankee Stadium last season, producing a 6.98 ERA at home and a 3.17 ERA on the road. If he could not adapt to the Yankees’ home park, the Reds probably should be concerned that their own park might spook him. But Cincinnati, as a condition of a trade agreement it has reached with the Yankees, is trying to negotiate an extension with Gray, sources say. Rival executives and player representatives were surprised the Reds would want to take such a step, considering Gray’s regression last season. Two newly acquired Reds, left-hander Alex Wood and righty , also are entering their free-agent years. The Reds could wait, assess how each performs this season and then decide which of the pitchers, if any, they want to extend.

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Gray, though, might come at an immediate discount. He is close with Reds pitching Derek Johnson, who was his pitching coach at Vanderbilt. And rather than test the open market, knowing players no longer are assured of windfalls in free agency, he might prefer the security of, say, a two- or three-year extension on top of his $7.5 million salary for 2019. The guess here is that such an extension would cost the Reds somewhere in the $8 million to $10 million range annually, a reasonable rate for a starting pitcher entering his age-29 season, provided he returns to form. Johnson, who is believed to have signed a deal for at least three years and possibly four, would offer Gray perhaps his best chance to rebound. The 72-hour deadline for the Reds to complete an extension with Gray expires late Monday, sources said. If the trade is completed, the Reds reportedly will part with minor-league infielder and their competitive-balance pick, which most likely will be No. 37 overall. If Gray rejects the extension, the Yankees either restructure their agreement with the Reds or pursue a deal with another club. They previously have discussed Gray with the Giants, Braves and Athletics, among others. A Gray trade and extension would give the Reds certainty for their rotation beyond this season, and the additional control would help justify their decision to part with Long, their No. 7 prospect according to MLBPipeline.com, as well as the pick and anyone else in the deal. Yet, as The Athletic’s Jim Bowden points out, the decision to acquire a series of one-year assets — outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp as well as Wood and Roark — has already raised questions about the Reds’ offseason strategy. Even with Gray, the Reds would be a longshot for the postseason, and quite possibly a fourth-place club behind the Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs. Clearly — and admirably, considering the number of teams not competing to the fullest — the Reds want to give their fans a more entertaining product after four consecutive sub-70-win seasons. But they’ve already traded three prospects to whom they paid more than $3 million combined in draft bonuses: infielder Jeter Downs and right-hander Josiah Gray (to the Dodgers in the Wood-Puig extravaganza) and righty Tanner Rainey (to the Nats). It’s fair to ask: Is the team ready for all this? A trade of Long would further deplete a farm system that many considered one of the game’s 10 best before the start of the offseason. According to sources, 39 the Indians wanted at least one of the Reds’ top two prospects — infielder Nick Senzel and outfielder — for right-hander Corey Kluber. The Padres are among the other teams that covet Senzel. But rather than trade from the top of their farm system, the Reds have parted with players who are less than sure things. Downs and Gray are years away from the majors. Rainey has command issues. Long plays only second base, and trails both Senzel and last year’s first-round pick, , on the organizational depth chart. If the Reds fail to contend in the first half, they can recoup some the young talent they lost by trading veterans at the non-waiver deadline. If they compete all season, they could consider extending qualifying offers for at least Wood and Puig, protecting their right to draft-pick compensation. Their entire offseason has been unusual. An extension for Gray would be one more unexpected step. Here’s you-know-who with some ideas for MLB His initials are S.B. His most famous client’s initials are B.H. I’m tempted not to say anything further about the author of the following proposals; fans harbor such strong feelings about this particular messenger, they sometimes are blinded to his message. Well, the author is agent Scott Boras, and once again he is offering ideas worthy of consideration as Major League Baseball and the players’ union discuss potential enhancements to the on-field product — enhancements that, from the union’s perspective, should also include incentives that better motivate teams to win. The union has not presented any of these proposals to baseball, sources say. They are Boras’ ideas, and for now, his alone. Experts would need to run them through models to determine their potential effectiveness. But these are at least the kind of thoughts the two sides should be discussing — largely non- economic concepts that, at least at first glance, would not appear to disrupt the current collective-bargaining agreement. Here are Boras’ suggestions: * The expansion of playoffs from five to seven teams in each league. The postseason would begin with three single-elimination wild-card games in each league: No. 7 seed vs. No. 6, winner vs. No. 5, winner vs. No. 4. 40

A larger postseason field would provide openings for teams in the 82-to-90-win range, giving them reason to hold or add at the non-waiver deadline rather than dump veterans. Boras also would build in monetary bonuses for the playoff qualifiers — say, $5 million per team. * The creation of incentives for clubs to sign veteran players. A bottom-15 revenue team that signs a free agent 32 or older would get a draft pick after the second round. A top-15 revenue team that pursues such a course could take either the pick or receive an exclusion for that player in its luxury- tax calculation. The owners might not like this one, for it offers a way around the tax. Boras’ theory — at a time when the sport’s approach to free agency seems to be “don’t trust anyone over 30” — is that teams need veterans to win. * A rule discouraging clubs from aiming for high draft picks. If a team does not win 68 or more games, it cannot qualify for a top-five selection. “Our system is like a restaurant saying, ‘If I can’t be an elite, fine-dining restaurant, I am no longer going to make a good hamburger. I’m just going to give poor meat to my clientele,’” Boras says. “Which results in fewer patrons, a downturn in (overall major-league) attendance three years running.” * The creation of three draft lotteries that would enable teams to receive additional picks if they cross certain win thresholds. The first lottery would be for teams in the 75-to-79-win range. The second would be for teams that finish with 80 or more victories but do not make the playoffs. The third would be for postseason qualifiers. Various levels of comp picks would be awarded to the winners of the lotteries and other teams that qualify. Again: These are just concepts. They would need to be fully vetted. And they would require at least some economic concessions from MLB — the bonuses for playoff teams, and the increases in the sizes of the draft pools. Still, these are the kinds of ideas, perhaps, that would force teams to reconsider the all-in or all-out approach the current system promotes.

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“These dynamics will dramatically change the product for the fan, dramatically create interest in the game,” Boras says. “We want more fans coming. We want .500 in baseball to be meaningful again. “When I go to the ballpark, I want my home team to have a greater chance of winning that day. I also want them to have a greater chance of being in the playoffs. I want 84-85 wins relevant to the process of winning, advancing, pursuing your goals as an organization.”

What the Dodgers are thinking The Dodgers undoubtedly will disappoint a segment of their fanbase if they sign free-agent outfielder A.J. Pollock instead of Bryce Harper, but here are some factors to consider: * Pollock figures to command a guarantee not in the hundreds of millions, but slightly above the $50 million Andrew McCutchen received over three years from the Phillies. McCutchen is more durable than Pollock and superior offensively, but Pollock at 31 is a year younger and still has the ability to play center field. * Pollock, as a right-handed hitter, would be a better fit for the Dodgers’ predominantly left-handed lineup — though Harper, a left-handed hitter, actually has better career numbers than Pollock against lefties. Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, traded to the Reds last month, both bat right- handed. Pollock hits lefties better than Puig and is a better defender than Kemp. A trade of the left-handed-hitting — which is under discussion, sources say — would balance the lineup further. * While Pollock, reliever Joe Kelly and catcher Russell Martin would represent a modest haul if they were the extent of the Dodgers’ offseason additions, the team also will regain shortstop Corey Seager, who played in only 26 games in 2018 season before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Seager will rejoin a group of left-handed hitters that includes Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Alex Verdugo — plus Pederson, if he remains with the club. * The Dodgers, back-to-back defending NL champions, are not exactly threatened by their division rivals in the NL West.

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The Padres are rebuilding, the Diamondbacks are retooling, the Giants are doing little to improve a club that won 73 games last season. The Rockies signed Daniel Murphy to fill an offensive void but also lost DJ LeMahieu, creating questions at second base. One of the complaints on the players’ side is that with so many clubs holding back in their competitive efforts, even contenders such as the Dodgers and Indians are less motivated to pursue upgrades, knowing they already figure to dominate their divisions. Around the horn Information from major-league sources: * The Diamondbacks are in line for four of the first 34 picks in the 2019 draft if Pollock signs for more than $50 million, as expected. Under the collective-bargaining agreement, a team that makes a free agent a qualifying offer and receives revenue sharing is compensated with a pick after the first round. The departure of free-agent left-hander for a six-year, $140 million contract with the Nationals already assures Arizona of at least one such pick. The Diamondbacks also hold the 26th selection as compensation for unsigned 2018 first rounder Matt McLain, as well as their own first-round choice at No. 16. In all, the Diamondbacks will make eight of the first 98 selections. * Some teams looked at the career .651 OPS of left-handed hitters against Martin Pérez as a sign the free agent might be better as a left-handed reliever, but Pérez chose the Twins as a free agent because he wants to re-establish himself as a starter. The Mets also were in on Pérez as a depth piece, as noted by Fancred’s Jon Heyman, and the Mariners and Astros also expressed interest. Pérez’s one-year agreement with the Twins is pending a physical. * The market for free-agent includes the Padres, Brewers and Phillies, to varying extents. The Padres need a third baseman. The Brewers could re-sign Moustakas and move to second. The Phillies might view Moustakas as an 43 alternative if they fail to sign Manny Machado, and almost certainly have a trade lined up for Maikel Franco as a contingency. Another possibility for the Phillies if they lose Machado: free agent , a former teammate of Andrew McCutchen’s with the Pirates. * Two things to like about Joc Pederson, who is drawing interest from the White Sox and possibly the Braves and others: His strikeout rate has dropped for four consecutive seasons, from 29.1 percent to 27.3 to 21.1 to 19.2. He also crushes right-handed pitching: .893 OPS with 24 homers in 386 plate appearances last season, .842 OPS for his career. * Another sign the Marlins will spend before the offseason is over: They were in discussions with the Mariners about a trade for first baseman Carlos Santana before the M’s sent Santana to the Indians on the final day of the winter meetings. Santana is owed $34.5 million over the next two seasons, and the Mariners included $6 million in the trade while taking on the $25 million still owed Edwin Encarnacion. Any trade with the Marlins almost certainly would have included cash as a well. In any case, the Fish still plan to supplement their bullpen as well as their offense, preferably with a left-handed hitter.

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