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Forecasting of Thunderstorms in the Pre-Monsoon Season at Delhi
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Publications of the IAS Fellows Meteorol. Appl. 6, 29–38 (1999) Forecasting of thunderstorms in the pre-monsoon season at Delhi N Ravi1, U C Mohanty1, O P Madan1 and R K Paliwal2 1Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi 110 016, India 2National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Mausam Bhavan Complex, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India Accurate prediction of thunderstorms during the pre-monsoon season (April–June) in India is essential for human activities such as construction, aviation and agriculture. Two objective forecasting methods are developed using data from May and June for 1985–89. The developed methods are tested with independent data sets of the recent years, namely May and June for the years 1994 and 1995. The first method is based on a graphical technique. Fifteen different types of stability index are used in combinations of different pairs. It is found that Showalter index versus Totals total index and Jefferson’s modified index versus George index can cluster cases of occurrence of thunderstorms mixed with a few cases of non-occurrence along a zone. The zones are demarcated and further sub-zones are created for clarity. The probability of occurrence/non-occurrence of thunderstorms in each sub-zone is then calculated. The second approach uses a multiple regression method to predict the occurrence/non- occurrence of thunderstorms. A total of 274 potential predictors are subjected to stepwise screening and nine significant predictors are selected to formulate a multiple regression equation that gives the forecast in probabilistic terms. -
A Monsoon—A Weather Phenomenon Occurring Primarily in July, August and September—Brings Rain and Cooler Temperatures to Arizona
What is a Monsoon? A monsoon—a weather phenomenon occurring primarily in July, August and September—brings rain and cooler temperatures to Arizona. It also raises special concerns for you, your family and your property. A monsoon triggers heavy rainfall, lightning, severe winds, dust storms and flash floods—all of which can endanger homeowners, motorists or anyone caught unaware. Rain Rains throughout the state can quickly fill channels, rivers and washes, creating a potentially life- threatening danger. A flash flood caused by a short yet intense rainfall can occur virtually anywhere—mountains, canyons, flat desert or urban areas. The National Weather Service may issue watches or warnings to identify a thunderstorm hazard. A flood watch or flash flood watch means there is a possibility of flooding or a flash flood. Affected residents should take the following precautions. • Be prepared to evacuate. • If time allows, bring in outdoor furniture and move valuables to higher places in your home. • Unplug electrical appliances, and, if possible, move them to higher levels. Do not touch an electric appliance if you are wet or standing in water. • Keep the gas tank in your car full, in case you have to evacuate. A flood warning means a flood is occurring or will likely occur soon. If you are advised to evacuate, do so immediately. A flash flood warning means a flash flood is occurring. Seek higher ground immediately. Always listen to the radio or television for current information. Lightning Lightning is attracted to metal and water and tends to strike the highest or tallest objects. Observe the following to avoid lightning strikes: • You are in the lightning strike zone if you hear thunder five seconds or less after seeing lightning. -
Archaeological Tree-Ring Dating at the Millennium
P1: IAS Journal of Archaeological Research [jar] pp469-jare-369967 June 17, 2002 12:45 Style file version June 4th, 2002 Journal of Archaeological Research, Vol. 10, No. 3, September 2002 (C 2002) Archaeological Tree-Ring Dating at the Millennium Stephen E. Nash1 Tree-ring analysis provides chronological, environmental, and behavioral data to a wide variety of disciplines related to archaeology including architectural analysis, climatology, ecology, history, hydrology, resource economics, volcanology, and others. The pace of worldwide archaeological tree-ring research has accelerated in the last two decades, and significant contributions have recently been made in archaeological chronology and chronometry, paleoenvironmental reconstruction, and the study of human behavior in both the Old and New Worlds. This paper reviews a sample of recent contributions to tree-ring method, theory, and data, and makes some suggestions for future lines of research. KEY WORDS: dendrochronology; dendroclimatology; crossdating; tree-ring dating. INTRODUCTION Archaeology is a multidisciplinary social science that routinely adopts an- alytical techniques from disparate fields of inquiry to answer questions about human behavior and material culture in the prehistoric, historic, and recent past. Dendrochronology, literally “the study of tree time,” is a multidisciplinary sci- ence that provides chronological and environmental data to an astonishing vari- ety of archaeologically relevant fields of inquiry, including architectural analysis, biology, climatology, economics, -
Scientific Dating of Pleistocene Sites: Guidelines for Best Practice Contents
Consultation Draft Scientific Dating of Pleistocene Sites: Guidelines for Best Practice Contents Foreword............................................................................................................................. 3 PART 1 - OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................. 3 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 3 The Quaternary stratigraphical framework ........................................................................ 4 Palaeogeography ........................................................................................................... 6 Fitting the archaeological record into this dynamic landscape .............................................. 6 Shorter-timescale division of the Late Pleistocene .............................................................. 7 2. Scientific Dating methods for the Pleistocene ................................................................. 8 Radiometric methods ..................................................................................................... 8 Trapped Charge Methods................................................................................................ 9 Other scientific dating methods ......................................................................................10 Relative dating methods ................................................................................................10 -
ESSENTIALS of METEOROLOGY (7Th Ed.) GLOSSARY
ESSENTIALS OF METEOROLOGY (7th ed.) GLOSSARY Chapter 1 Aerosols Tiny suspended solid particles (dust, smoke, etc.) or liquid droplets that enter the atmosphere from either natural or human (anthropogenic) sources, such as the burning of fossil fuels. Sulfur-containing fossil fuels, such as coal, produce sulfate aerosols. Air density The ratio of the mass of a substance to the volume occupied by it. Air density is usually expressed as g/cm3 or kg/m3. Also See Density. Air pressure The pressure exerted by the mass of air above a given point, usually expressed in millibars (mb), inches of (atmospheric mercury (Hg) or in hectopascals (hPa). pressure) Atmosphere The envelope of gases that surround a planet and are held to it by the planet's gravitational attraction. The earth's atmosphere is mainly nitrogen and oxygen. Carbon dioxide (CO2) A colorless, odorless gas whose concentration is about 0.039 percent (390 ppm) in a volume of air near sea level. It is a selective absorber of infrared radiation and, consequently, it is important in the earth's atmospheric greenhouse effect. Solid CO2 is called dry ice. Climate The accumulation of daily and seasonal weather events over a long period of time. Front The transition zone between two distinct air masses. Hurricane A tropical cyclone having winds in excess of 64 knots (74 mi/hr). Ionosphere An electrified region of the upper atmosphere where fairly large concentrations of ions and free electrons exist. Lapse rate The rate at which an atmospheric variable (usually temperature) decreases with height. (See Environmental lapse rate.) Mesosphere The atmospheric layer between the stratosphere and the thermosphere. -
Luminescence Dating
1. Introduction and Application 3. Field Supplies and Sampling Luminescence dating is utilized in a number of geologic and archaeologic studies to obtain a depositional (burial) age on alluvium, colluvium, eolian, glacial, marine, paleontological, biological and anthropogenic sediment or rock. Exposure to sufficient sunlight (290-3200nm) or heat (>500°C) will reset any previous luminescence signal to zero. After removal from the stimulation source, ionizing energy from radioactive decay in surrounding sediment/rock (15-30cm) and within the mineral grain will excite atomic orbital electrons- some will get trapped in mineral lattice defects. This trapping and storing effectively acts as a clock and accumulation of electrons will continue until the trap becomes saturated, or a stimulating source aids in their escape back to their original orbit. Upon trap departure, some electrons will Figure 1. Required gear used for tube-sample collection method produce a photon of light when the stored energy is released. in luminescence dating. (A) Measuring tape for burial depth, In the lab, this light energy (luminescence) is then calibrated to important for cosmic DR. (B) For DE sample, OSL sampling tube radiation doses for deriving a geologic radiation dose (metal or other opaque material) sharpened at one end and pre- equivalent, known as Equivalent Dose (DE) in grays (Gy) of loaded with a styrofoam plug on the sharpened end to limit radiation. The natural decay of radioelements in the sediment shaking during pounding. (C) Rubber end caps for tube sedimentary environment and from cosmogenic fall out (up to (tinfoil and duct tape can be substituted if not available). -
The Global Monsoon Systems
THE GLOBAL MONSOON SYSTEMS Monsoon rainfall is the life-blood of more than half the OVERVIEW world’s population, for whom agriculture is the main source of subsistence. Extensive research is being Traditionally, the terminology “monsoon” was used for conducted to increase our understanding of monsoon climate that has an apparent seasonal shift of prevailing predictability, improve the accuracy of predictions, and winds between winter and summer, notably in tropical refine projections of the impact of man-made climate Asia, Australia, Africa, and the Indian Ocean. The term change on monsoonal systems worldwide. This has the also increasingly refers to regions where there is a potential to provide significant socio-economic returns clear alternation between winter dry and summer rainy by maximizing the benefits of monsoon rainfall and seasons. According to this definition, the monsoon region reducing the impact of extreme events such as those is distributed globally over all tropical continents, and in witnessed during the northern hemisphere summer the tropical oceans in the western North Pacific, eastern monsoon of 2010 in Pakistan, China, and India, and the North Pacific, and the southern Indian Ocean. Monsoon southern hemisphere summer monsoon of 2011 in systems represent the dominant variation in the climate Australia. of the tropics with profound local, regional, and global impacts. Figure 1 shows the approximate location of Figure 1: The approximate global monsoon precipitation domain is here defined where the local summer-minus-winter precipitation rate exceeds 2.5 mm/day and the local summer precipitation exceeds 55 % of the annual total (in red). During any individual year, it is possible for the monsoon to affect a broader area than shown here. -
Coupling of Pre-Monsoon Tropical Cyclones with the Monsoon Onset in Myanmar
Utah State University DigitalCommons@USU All Graduate Theses and Dissertations Graduate Studies 5-2014 Bay of Bengal: Coupling of Pre-Monsoon Tropical Cyclones With the Monsoon Onset in Myanmar Boniface Opoku Fosu Utah State University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd Part of the Climate Commons Recommended Citation Fosu, Boniface Opoku, "Bay of Bengal: Coupling of Pre-Monsoon Tropical Cyclones With the Monsoon Onset in Myanmar" (2014). All Graduate Theses and Dissertations. 3864. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/3864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Studies at DigitalCommons@USU. It has been accepted for inclusion in All Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@USU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. BAY OF BENGAL: COUPLING OF PRE-MONSOON TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH THE MONSOON ONSET IN MYANMAR by Boniface O. Fosu A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE in Climate Science Approved: Shih-Yu Wang Robert Gillies Major Professor Committee member Brendan M. Buckley Vice President for Research and Committee Member Dean of the School of Graduate Studies UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY Logan, Utah 2014 ii Copyright © Boniface O. Fosu All Rights Reserved iii ABSTRACT Bay of Bengal: Coupling of Pre-Monsoon Tropical Cyclones with the Monsoon Onset in Myanmar by Boniface O. Fosu, Master of Science Utah State University, 2014 Major Professor: Dr. Simon S. -Y. Wang Department: Plants, Soils, and Climate The pre-monsoon tropical cyclone (TC) activity and the monsoon evolution in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are both influenced by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), but the two do not always occur in unison. -
Synoptic Meteorology
Lecture Notes on Synoptic Meteorology For Integrated Meteorological Training Course By Dr. Prakash Khare Scientist E India Meteorological Department Meteorological Training Institute Pashan,Pune-8 186 IMTC SYLLABUS OF SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY (FOR DIRECT RECRUITED S.A’S OF IMD) Theory (25 Periods) ❖ Scales of weather systems; Network of Observatories; Surface, upper air; special observations (satellite, radar, aircraft etc.); analysis of fields of meteorological elements on synoptic charts; Vertical time / cross sections and their analysis. ❖ Wind and pressure analysis: Isobars on level surface and contours on constant pressure surface. Isotherms, thickness field; examples of geostrophic, gradient and thermal winds: slope of pressure system, streamline and Isotachs analysis. ❖ Western disturbance and its structure and associated weather, Waves in mid-latitude westerlies. ❖ Thunderstorm and severe local storm, synoptic conditions favourable for thunderstorm, concepts of triggering mechanism, conditional instability; Norwesters, dust storm, hail storm. Squall, tornado, microburst/cloudburst, landslide. ❖ Indian summer monsoon; S.W. Monsoon onset: semi permanent systems, Active and break monsoon, Monsoon depressions: MTC; Offshore troughs/vortices. Influence of extra tropical troughs and typhoons in northwest Pacific; withdrawal of S.W. Monsoon, Northeast monsoon, ❖ Tropical Cyclone: Life cycle, vertical and horizontal structure of TC, Its movement and intensification. Weather associated with TC. Easterly wave and its structure and associated weather. ❖ Jet Streams – WMO definition of Jet stream, different jet streams around the globe, Jet streams and weather ❖ Meso-scale meteorology, sea and land breezes, mountain/valley winds, mountain wave. ❖ Short range weather forecasting (Elementary ideas only); persistence, climatology and steering methods, movement and development of synoptic scale systems; Analogue techniques- prediction of individual weather elements, visibility, surface and upper level winds, convective phenomena. -
Aerosol, Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Climate Change
Aerosol, Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Climate Change William K. M. Lau Laboratory for Atmospheres NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Climate Change≠ Global Warming Climate Change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather over a period of time that range from season, years, decades to millions of years. It can be a change in the average weather or a change in the distribution of weather events around an average (for example, greater or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change may be limited to a specific region, or an environment, or may occur across the whole Earth System Global warming is a realization of the effects of well-mixed greenhouse gases associated with modern (approx. since the last 1.5 centuries) climate change 2 Global and TOA “……human influences are significant and involve a diverse range of first-order climate forcings, including , but not limited to the human input of well mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O etc.) The impacts of these other forcing (aerosols, LULC, urban heat island…..) are critically important in exciting climate feedbacks on regional and local scales, and in modulating the greenhouse warming effects.” Climate Change: The Need to Consider Human Forcings Other than Greenhouse Gases, EOS, American Geophysical Union, 2009, Nov. By Roger Pielke Sr1., Keith Beven2, Guy Brasseur3, Jack Calvert3, Moustafa Cha hine4, Russ Dickerson5, Dara Entekhabi6, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou7, Hoshin Gupt a8, Vijay Gupta1, Witold Krajewski9, E. Philip Krider8, William K. M. Lau10, Jeff McDonnell11, William Rossow12 , John Schaake13, James Smith14, Soroosh Sor ooshian15, Eric Wood14 4 Definition of aerosol An aerosol is a suspension of fine solid particles or liquid droplets in a gas. -
List of North American Luminescence Labs
North American Laboratories for Luminescence Dating UNITED STATES California Sachiko Sakai Dept. of Anthropology, California State University, Long Beach 1250 Bellflower Blvd. Long Beach, CA 90840 Email: [email protected] - Specializes in archaeological applications. Colorado Shannon Mahan and Harrison Gray U.S.G.S Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Denver, CO Email: [email protected]; [email protected] https://www.usgs.gov/centers/gecsc/labs/luminescence-dating-laboratory?qt- science_support_page_related_con=4#qt-science_support_page_related_con - Luminescence Dating Laboratory, specializes in geologic and archaeologic applications, and luminescence community leader. Illinois Sébastien Huot Geochronology Laboratory, Illinois State Geological Survey, Champaign, IL Email: [email protected] http://www.isgs.illinois.edu/research/geochemistry/labs/osl - Specializes in feldspar IRSL and quartz OSL dating applications. Indiana Jose Luis Antinao Luminescence Geochronology Laboratory, Indiana Geological and Water Survey Email: [email protected] - Specializes in OSL applications in geomorphology. Updated 03-16-2021 North American Laboratories for Luminescence Dating Kansas Joel Spencer Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas Email: [email protected] - Specialized in geological and archaeological applications. Nebraska Paul Hanson and Richard Kettler University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE Email: [email protected] - Specializes in Nebraska sands, soils and loess and other Mid-West features or geological dating projects linked to -
Monsoon Safety Tips
Monsoon Safety Tips Before a Storm • Always be aware of the day’s forecast and keep up to date on changing conditions during the day. Monsoons can develop quickly and move rapidly. • Secure outdoor objects that could blow away or cause damage. • Have extra light and power handy. Keep batteries, flashlights and a battery-operated radio or TV on hand to keep you up to date during severe weather. • Create an emergency preparedness plan and kit. During a Storm Lightning • Lightning often strikes outside of heavy rain and may occur as far as 10 miles away from any rainfall. Remember that it does not have to be raining for you to be struck by lightning. If you hear thunder, you are close enough to a storm to be struck by lightning. • Stay off the phone. Even cordless phones can cause a shock when lightning strikes nearby. Use cell phones only if necessary. • Avoid contact with plumbing. Do not wash your hands, do not take a shower, do not wash dishes, and do not do laundry. Plumbing and bathroom fixtures can conduct electricity. • Keep away from windows. • If you are caught outdoors in a thunderstorm, and safe shelter is not available, find a low spot away from trees, fences, and poles. Avoid high ground, water, trees and metal objects. Wind • Thunderstorm wind gusts in Arizona almost always exceed 40 mph. The strongest straight line wind gusts can exceed 100 mph, and can produce damage similar to a tornado! • Secure outdoor objects that could blow away or cause damage. This includes garbage cans, umbrellas, patio furniture and any other unsecure items around your yard.