COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS -Elyria,

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research As of April 1, 2016

Summary

Economy the previous 12 months. During the 3-year forecast period, demand is Economic conditions in the Cleveland estimated for 6,300 new homes (Table 1). HMA remain positive. Nonfarm payrolls The 800 homes currently under con­ have grown since 2011, the longest job Housing Market Area struction in the HMA and a portion of expansion in the HMA this century. the estimated 49,800 other vacant units Nonfarm payrolls totaled nearly 1.05 that are likely to reenter the market will million jobs during the 12 months end- satisfy some of the demand. ing March 2016, up by 9,100, or 0.9 percent, from the previous 12 months. Rental Market

Ashtabula The current unemployment rate is 4.7 Lake Erie Lake percent, down from 5.6 percent 1 year The rental housing market in the HMA earlier and the lowest it has been in the is slightly soft, with a renter vacancy rate Geauga

Cuyahoga Trumbull HMA since 2000. Table DP-1 at the of 8.7 percent, down from 12.6 percent

Erie Lorain end of this report provides economic in April 2010. The apartment market is Portage Medina and population data on the HMA. slightly tight, with a 3.2-percent vacancy

Huron Summit Mahoning rate, up from 3.1 percent 1 year earlier. Ashland Wayne Stark Sales Market The current average rent for an apart- The Cleveland-Elyria Housing Market The sales housing market in the HMA ment is $823, up by $19, or 2 percent, Area (hereafter, Cleveland HMA) in is soft but improving, with a vacancy from 1 year earlier. During the 3-year is coterminous with the rate currently estimated at 2.2 percent, forecast period, demand is estimated Cleveland-Elyria, OH Metropolitan for 3,825 new rental units (Table 1). The Statistical Area. The HMA consists of down from 2.5 percent in April 2010. 2,870 units currently under construction Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, and Home sales in the HMA totaled 31,900 will satisfy a significant portion of that Medina Counties. The HMA is known during the 12 months ending March demand. for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and 2016, up by 600, or 2 percent, from Museum, Inc. This report divides the HMA into the Cuyahoga County and Table 1. Housing Demand in the Cleveland-Elyria HMA During the Forecast Period the Suburban submarkets. Cleveland-Elyria Cuyahoga County Suburban HMA Submarket Submarket Sales Rental Sales Rental Sales Rental Units Units Units Units Units Units Total demand 6,300 3,825 1,600 2,625 4,700 1,200 Market Details Under construction 800 2,870 230 2,100 570 770 Economic Conditions...... 2 Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at the end of the forecast period. Units under construction as of April 1, 2016. A Population and Households...... 6 portion of the estimated 49,800 other vacant units in the HMA will likely satisfy some of the forecast demand. The forecast period is April 1, 2016, to April 1, 2019. Housing Market Trends...... 8 Source: Estimates by analysts Data Profiles...... 17 Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 2 Economic Conditions four Fortune 500companies. equipment. TheHMAishometo steel, automobiles, andtransportation dustries in the HMA currently include in theworld. Majormanufacturing in Inc., was thelargest oil-refiningcenter Cleveland, ashometoStandardOilCo., the late19thandearly 20thcenturies, ideal placetobuildafactory. During networks thatmadeCleveland an theexisting transportation because of employment sectorsintheHMA themain historically hasbeenoneof . Manufacturing its locationonLakeErieandthe T LTV Steel, atits peak, employed more andlater dissolved. through bankruptcy during 2001,whenthecompany went morethan 2,300 employees laid off during thattimewas LTV Steel,which Among thecompaniesthathad layoffs 11,300 jobs, or6.4percent,­ to 150,500jobs, anaverage declineof turing sectoremployment hadfallen payrolls.nonfarm By2004,manufac all accounted for17.2percentof employment sectorintheHMAand when manufacturing was thelargest sector totaled195,700during2000, the HMA.Jobs inthemanufacturing layoffs amongsteelmanufacturers in ing employment causedbynumerous declining manufactur was the result of thosejoblosses of significant portion annually duringthenext 4years. A 16,000jobs,average or1.4percent, of payrollsnonfarm declined byan jobs during2000.Following thatpeak, nearly 1.14million all-time peakof payrolls intheHMAreachedan the2000s. Nonfarm through mostof ture fromtheconditionsthatexisted depar HMA since2011areasharp job growth thathave inthe occurred The positive economicconditionsand a center for trade because of a centerfortradebecauseof he Cleveland HMAbecame annually. - - - - jobs, or2.5and1.7percent,respec 3,500and2,900 annual increasesof growth duringthattime, withaverage sectorsledjob and healthservices andtheeducation business services earlier losses. Theprofessionaland a very smallgaincomparedwiththe to nearly 1.08millionjobsin2006— 1,500 jobs, or0.1percent,annually, payrolls expanded byanaverage of During 2005and2006,nonfarm ment intheHMA. also affectingmanufacturing employ producers, whichcutnumerous jobs, amongdomesticauto restructuring The early 2000salsowas aperiodof than 15,000peopleintheHMA. Job lossesinthemining, logging, and layoffs atitssteelproductionfacility. and miningcompanyannounced 450 during 2008,theArcelorMittal steel nearly 1,800workers,layoffs and, of in theHMAduring2007,which caused Company (Ford) closedtwo factories 6.6 percent,respectively. Ford Motor 7,750and2,500jobs, or5.7and of declines, withaverage annual losses sectorsled logging, andconstruction but themanufacturing andthemining, during those4years were widespread, annually, to990,900.Job losses 21,000jobs,average or2.0percent, of payrollsnonfarm declinedbyan before 1990.From 2007through 2010, a millionjobsforthefirsttimesince payrollswith nonfarm droppingbelow began adeclinethatlasted4years, jobs. payrolls During2007,nonfarm payroll allnonfarm to 13.7percentof with manufacturing, whichdeclined payroll allnonfarm jobscompared of sector intheHMA,with15.8percent sector becamethelargest employment the educationandhealthservices and tradesectors. Duringthattime, offset bylossesinthemanufacturing tively. Overall jobgainswere heavily -

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Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 3 Source: U.S.Bureau ofLaborStatistics Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics averages throughMarch2015and2016. Notes: Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.Based on12-month Table 2. Figure 1. Labor force and Total nonfarmpayroll jobs Goods-producing sectors Service-providing sectors Manufacturing Mining, logging,&construction resident employment Government Other services Leisure &hospitality Education &healthservices Professional &businessservices Financial activities Information Transportation &utilities Wholesale &retail trade Economic Conditions 1,010,000 1,060,000 1,110,000 1,160,000 860,000 910,000 960,000 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in theCleveland-Elyria HMA, ment Rateinthe Trends inLaborForce,ResidentEmployment,andUnemploy Labor force

2000 bySector

2001

2002

2003

2004

Continued Cleveland-Elyria HMA,

2005 Resident employment

2006 March 2015 1,038,700 133,800 196,700 148,700 152,100 878,300 124,600 160,400

2007 12 MonthsEnding 39,600 97,500 64,700 14,500 30,700 35,800 in theHMAhave expanded byan (Table payrolls 2).Since2011,nonfarm percent, fromtheprevious 12months 1.05 millionjobs, upby9,100,or0.9 payrolls2016, nonfarm totalednearly During the12monthsendingMarch payroll allnonfarm jobs. percent of 187,700 jobsin2010,increasingto18.9 jobs, or2.4percent,annually, toreach 4,225 which grew byanaverage of sector,the educationandhealthservices growth from2007through2010was only employment sectortorecord employment duringthoseyears. The led toareductioninconstruction which bythehousingdownturn, part, sectorwere caused,in construction average of 10,800jobs,average or1.1percent, of 2008

2009 March 2016 2010 1,047,800 135,000 101,200 200,800 148,600 153,200 888,800 123,900 159,000 40,100 65,200 14,200 30,600 35,100 2011 2000Through2015 2012

Unemployment rate 2013 Absolute Change – 1,400 10,500 1,200 3,700 4,100 1,100 9,100 – 100 – 300 – 100 – 700 – 700 2014 500 500

2015 Change Percent – 0.1 – 2.1 – 0.3 – 0.6 – 2.0 – 0.9 10.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 0.9 1.3 3.8 2.1 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.9

Unemployment rate - The manufacturing sectordeclinedby 2000 through2015. unemployment rateintheHMAfrom force, residentemployment, andthe Figure 1shows trendsinthelabor to thedecliningunemployment rate. previous 12months, whichcontributed workers, or0.4percent,duringthe 4,075 ers comparedwithadeclineof percent, tonearly 1.03millionwork decreased by8,325workers, or0.8 At thesametime, thelaborforce during theprevious 12-month period. 4.7 percent,down from5.6percent unemployment rateinthe HMAwas ending March2016,theaverage annually. Duringthe12months growing sector since 2000 (Figure 3). growing sectorsince 2000(Figure3). in 2000,andhas beenthefastest- jobs intheHMA,upfrom13 percent payroll allnonfarm for 19percentof 2000s. Thesector currently accounts HMA (Figure2)duringtheearly the largest employment sectorinthe sectorbecame and healthservices As notedpreviously, theeducation Ohio Assembly PlantinAvon Lake. fromMexico tothe and F-750trucks F-650 to transfertheproductionof announced a$168millioninvestment Motor Company).In2014Ford Cleveland EnginePlant(The Ford engines fromValencia, Spain,tothe its2.0-literand2.3-literEcoBoost of to theHMAbymoving production $200 millionandadded450new jobs industry. In2013,Ford invested nearly an expansion inthecarmanufacturing manufacturing sectorisattributableto recentgrowth inthe of A portion 1,400jobs, or1.2percent,annually.of the sectorhasexpanded byanaverage 116,500jobsin2010.Since2011, of payrolls sincethesectorreachedalow over-year decreaseinmanufacturing 123,900 jobs. Thatwas thefirstyear- 700 jobs, orlessthan1.0percent,to - Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 4 Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics Note: Current isbasedon12-month averagesthrough March 2016. Figure 3. – 50 Economic Conditions SectorGrowthinthe – 40 – 30 – 20

Continued Cleveland-Elyria – 10 Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics Note: Basedon12-monthaveragesthroughMarch2016. Figure 2. and infrastructure ­ and infrastructure business environment, resources, the expected tocontinue, because of (Table 3).Growth inthissectoris 35,150 and15,500workers, respectively University Hospitals, whichemploy ers intheHMA—Cleveland Clinicand sector containsthetwo largest employ 2.1percent,to200,800jobs. This of sector added4,100jobs, anincrease 2016, theeducationandhealthservices During the12monthsendingMarch Education &healthservices19.2% 0 Leisure &hospitality9.7%

by Sector Current NonfarmPayroll Jobsinthe HMA, Other services3.8% 10 provided bythe PercentageChange,2000toCurrent Government 12.9% Government 20 30 - Mining, logging,&construction3.3% (Cleveland Health-Tech Corridor). investments2008 since and $4billionof resulted inmorethan1,800new jobs marketing health-techbusinesses indeveloping,efforts branding, and sectors.and technology TheHTC’s inthehealth ment andpartnership hub forresearch,encouraginginvest Cleveland’s eastside. TheHTC isa downtown totheUniversity Circleon which connectsCleveland’s growing Cleveland Health-Tech (HTC), Corridor Professional &businessservices 14.2% 40 Manufacturing 11.8% Total nonfarmpayroll jobs Financial activities6.2% Service-providing sectors Goods-producing sectors Cleveland-Elyria HMA, Information 1.4% Education &healthservices Professional &businessservices Financial activities Transportation &utilities Manufacturing Government Other services Leisure &hospitality Wholesale &retail trade Mining, logging,&construction Information Transportation &utilities2.9% Wholesale &retail trade14.6%

- Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 5 Economic Conditions

Continued sector hasbeenthesecondfastest- HMA. Theleisureandhospitality theeconomy inthe of part important Tourism hasbecomeanincreasingly was themining, logging, and Limiting theoverall economicgrowth the HMAfrom2016through2018. hotel roomsexpected tobeaddedin in 2016andareamongthe1,500 Hotel Cleveland Downtown opened Plaza Schofield Hotel,andtheDrury Downtown Hotel,theKimpton Committee). TheHiltonCleveland $200 million(Cleveland 2016 Host event isestimatedtobeapproximately the 1936. Theeconomicimpactof will have beenheldinCleveland since first timetheRepublican convention Republican NationalConvention, the Cleveland willhostthe2016 city of tel roombookings. InJuly 2016,the million visitorsthatledto100,000ho jobs 13.2 and,through 2015,reported down­ in 2012,Jack Cleveland Casinoin percent, to101,200jobs. Opened 3.8 added 3,700jobs, anincreaseof 2016, theleisureandhospitalitysector During the12monthsendingMarch growing sectorintheHMAsince2000. Source: Note: Excludeslocalschooldistricts. Table 3. Case Western ReserveUniversity KeyCorp Group ManagementServices The MetroHealth System City ofCleveland Cuyahoga County Progressive Corporation U.S. OfficeofPersonnelManagement University Hospitals town Cleveland created 750new Crain’s ClevelandBusiness

Name ofEmployer Major Employersinthe Cleveland-Elyria - Education &healthservices Financial activities Professional &businessservices Education &healthservices Government Government Financial activities Government Education &healthservices Education &healthservices Nonfarm Payroll Sector sector expanded by an average of 700 sector expanded byanaverage of 12 monthsendingMarch2016.The by 700jobs, or2.0percent,duringthe con­ and theleisurehospitality sector. sector education andhealthservices period, withthelargest jobgainsinthe remain steady throughouttheforecast sectors isexpectedmost nonfarm to 1 percentannually. Employment in payroll farm growth averagingthan less continue toexpand slowly, with non­ theHMAisexpected to economy of During the3-year forecastperiod,the Republican NationalConvention. improvements fortheupcoming2016 several large hotelsandinfrastructure was causedbythecompletionof duringthepast12months occurred homes. Thedeclineinthesectorthat smaller demandfornew single-family in theHMAand,therefore, amuch adecliningpopulation largely aresultof weakeninglong-term inthesectoris in2000.The 45,600jobsreported of sector is23percentbelow thepeak employment2016. Current inthe jobs inthe12monthsendingMarch 31,600jobsin2011to35,100 low of jobs, or2.0percent,annually, froma struction sector,struction whichdecreased HMA Employees Number of 11,250 15,500 35,150 4,500 4,800 4,800 5,825 6,750 7,775 8,400

Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 6 by analysts Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;currentforecast—estimates Notes: Thecurrentdateis April 1,2016.Theforecastdateis April 1,2019. Figure 4. by analysts Sources: 2000and 2010—2000Censusand2010Census; currentandforecast—estimates Notes: Thecurrent dateis April 1,2016. Theforecastdateis April 1,2019. Figure 5.

Average annual change Average annual change Population andHouseholds – 10,000 – 14,000 – 12,000 – 8,000 – 7,000 – 6,000 – 5,000 – 4,000 – 3,000 – 2,000 – 1,000 – 8,000 – 6,000 – 4,000 – 2,000 1,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 0 0

HMA, Population andHouseholdGrowth inthe Components ofPopulationChangeinthe HMA, 2000toForecast 2000toForecast 2000 to2010 2000 to2010 Net naturalchange Population 2010 tocurrent 2010 tocurrent although the suburbs of the HMA HMA of the suburbs the although of Cuyahoga; county central the in population of adeclining result the is HMA the in loss population of the Most date. forecast the to 2000 from HMA the in growth household and 2010.from 4 shows Figure population unchanged essentially is that number a 854,600, is HMA the holds in of house number current The 2000. in 2.15 nearly million from percent 2010 in 4.2 and million 2.08 from 0.9 down percent million, 2.06 mated T Cleveland HMA is an esti an is HMA Cleveland of the population he current Households Net migration Cleveland-Elyria Cleveland-Elyria Current toforecast Current toforecast -

­

has slowed from the rate recorded recorded rate the slowed from has County Cuyahoga in loss of population 2010. since rate The annually people 6,100 averaged has out-migration net 2010; since annually 0.4or percent, of 4,675, decline average an million, 1.25 nearly at estimated is HMA, the in county largest County, the of Cuyahoga population current The 5). (Figure annually of 5,650 average slowed an to people has 2010,since out-migration net 12,350 but, averaged out-migration 2010, to net 2000 from migration; out- net experienced has HMA the 2000, Since population. lost has of Cleveland city the growing, are area ()—are Cleveland)—are (Downtown area Cleveland Downtown the constitute Division’s analytical purposes, will Analysis Market and Economic 44114, forthe 44115—which, and of 44113, Codes ZIP three The nials. becomes millen more with popular living urban as population in gain a see to starting is area downtown the population, losing are Cleveland of city of the areas most Although 8,175, annually. 1.3 or percent, of decrease average city—an largest 51st it the 2015, by 388,072 to making dropped had but nation, the in largest 7th the was city 914,808,at the when 1950 in peaked population city’s The of Cleveland. city of the population declining of the aresult been has loss population of the Most 1.72at million. estimated was population the when 1970, since declining steadily been has County of Cuyahoga population The annually. people 14,000 averaged out-migration net and annually of 11,400, 0.8 or percent, average an by decreased population 2010, and the when 2000 between - Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 7 Figure 6. Sources: 2000and 2010—2000Censusand2010Census; current—estimatesbyanalysts Note: Thecurrent dateis April 1,2016. Population andHouseholds 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 50,000 0

Submarket Number ofHouseholdsbyTenure inthe 2000 , 2000toCurrent

Continued Renter for urban living remains strong strong remains living urban for demand as 3years, next the during accelerate to expected are HMA this in growth household tion and 2010. since Popula annually percent, 3.5 or households, of 560 increase 18,050, an estimated an is Cleveland Downtown in of households number 2010. since current The annually of 1,050, 3.0 or percent, increase average of 39,000, an population current estimated an has Cleveland Downtown annually. 0.4or percent, 32,750, to rose of 125, average up an of 31,500 2010, by and, it population a had Cleveland Downtown 2000, In populationrecording growth. estimated at 57.2 percent, down from from 57.2 at down percent, estimated is County Cuyahoga in rate ship an of percent, 0.5 2,650, or average an by decreased submarket the in of households 2010,and number the 2000 Between annually. percent, 0.2 or households, of 960 decline average an 2010, in 545,056 539,300, from down is submarket County Cuyahoga the in of households number current The Cleveland. Downtown in nities provide housing additional opportu time this during market the enter to likely are that units housing new many the and people young among 2010 nually. The current homeowner current The ­nually. Owner Cuyahoga County Current -

- - in-migration to the submarket averaged averaged submarket the to in-migration 2010. since Net annually percent, of 1,525, 0.2 or increase average an 806,300, at estimated is submarket Sub of the population current The Service). Revenue (Internal submarket Suburban the constitute that counties have moved the to submarket County Cuyahoga of out the who migrated of people 2010,Since percent 30 nearly unchanged. virtually holds remaining house of number the with annually, of 3,675, average an percent, 0.3 or by decrease to expected is submarket of the population the period, forecast 3-year the 6). During (Figure 2000 in 2010 in 63.2 percent and 60.9 percent (Figure 7). During the forecast period, period, forecast the During 7). (Figure 2010 2000 in in 78.1 and percent 76.8 percent from down 73.8 percent, is submarket Suburban the in rate homeownership current The annually. of 2,825, average 1.0 or an by percent, rose submarket the in of households 2010, and number the 2000 Between slowed. has submarket this in growth previous decade because population the during lower than significantly is that rate annually—a percent, 0.3 or households, of 920 increase 309,837 2010,up in from average an 315,350, is submarket Suburban the in of households number current The years. those during growth population of total 37 percent represented and annually people 1,600 averaged County. in-migration Net Cuyahoga from of in-migration levels of higher a result as annually percent, 0.6 or of 4,300, average an by grew submarket Suburban lation of the 2010, popu the when through 2000 from rate the slower than is growth of population rate That growth. population of the 32for percent accounted and annually people 490 ­urban ­ ­

Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 8 Population andHouseholds Housing Market TrendsHousing

Continued by 1,125,by annually. 0.4 or percent, increasing households of number the with annually, percent, 0.2 or 1,800, of average an by expand to expected is submarket of the population the Survey [ACS]). The age of the housing the housing Survey [ACS]). Theage of (2014 1-year AmericanCommunity all housingunits were builtbefore1960 earlier, andmore than60percentof all housingunitswere built in1939or very oldhousingstock;30percentof 3.0 percent.Cuyahoga Countyhas higher thanthenationalaverage of inthesubmarketis REO properties seriously and delinquent mortgages of Even aftertherecentdecline, therate in January 2010(CoreLogic, Inc.). 10.3percent and below thepeaklevel of down from6.3percentinMarch2015 into realestateowned (REO)status, in foreclosure)orhadtransitioned quent (90ormoredays delinquentor the submarketwere seriously delin loansin allmortgage 5.5 percentof 2.8 percentin2010.InMarch2016, 2.5-percent vacancy rate, down from soft, althoughimproving, witha the Cuyahoga Countysubmarketis sales housing marketin The current Sales Market—CuyahogaCountySubmarket Figure 7. Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;current—estimatesbyanalysts Note: Thecurrentdateis April 1,2016. 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 50,000 0

Submarket Number ofHouseholdsbyTenure inthe 2000 , 2000toCurrent - Renter households in each submarket. each in households and population about information additional provide report) of this Tables DP-2 DP-3 and (at end the current level of sales is well below levelcurrent of 12 months(CoreLogic, Inc.). The more than5percent,fromthe previous ending March2016,down by 30,or totaled 490duringthe12months condominiums) inthesubmarket single-family homes, townhomes, and New homesales(whichincludes ket anddemolished 3,926. renovated 1,214housesinthesubmar 2009 through2015,theorganization or remove abandonedhouses. From units, torenovate isleadingthe effort funding toremove blightedhousing several entitiesreceiving Bank, oneof vacancy rate. TheCuyahoga Land units, whichshouldhelplower the old, vacant, andblightedhousing toremoveOhio hasbegunaprogram submarket. Since2009,thestateof utes tothehighvacancy rateinthis decline,that isinlong-term contrib stock, combinedwithapopulation 2010 Owner Suburban Current

- - Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 9 Sales Market—CuyahogaCountySubmarket Market TrendsHousing tax credit program providedtax creditprogram aboost percent, asthefirst-timehomebuyer sales roseduring2010by80,or15 annually, to560in2009.New home 300,ornearly an average 24percent, of which salesfellforthenext 5years by 2,100,after reach anall-timepeakof by 400,ormorethan24percent,to new homesalesgrew the number of to 1,700salesin2003.During2004, slightly lessthan3percent,annually, 3 years 50sales, byanaverage or of in 2000anddeclinedforthenext sales inthesubmarkettotaled1,850 demand fornew housing. New home population hascontributedtoreduced earlier periods, becauseadeclining annually. $7,325,or more than3percent, of risen to$242,000,anaverage growth anew homehad average salespriceof prices have increased;by2014,the decade. Since 2010,new homesales the price gainssincethebeginningof $205,300 in2009,reversing allthe or morethan7percent,annually, to next 3years $17,700, byanaverage of 2007, theaverage salespricefellforthe $258,000in2006.Beginning in of annually forthenext 6years toapeak $8,775, or nearlyaverage 4percent, of was $205,800, andthepricerosebyan anew home the average salespriceof from theprevious 12months. In2000, $31,000, or nearly 14 percent, a gain of home inthesubmarketwas $259,000, anew 2016, theaverage salespriceof During the12monthsendingMarch nearly 16percent,annually. sales, 75,or anaverage increaseof conditions and,by2013,totaled600 improving economic 2013 becauseof in thesubmarketduring2012and to 450.New homesalesgrew slightly sales fellby190,ornearly 30percent, sustained, and,in2011,new home to sales, butthatgrowth was not Continued

easier toobtain.Following thatpeak, loans,for mortgage nationwide, was 25,100 in2005,partly because credit cent, annually toanall-timepeakof 690homes,by anaverage or3per­ of 2000 andgrew duringthenext 5years ket totaled21,650homessoldduring existing homesinthesubmar sale of salesintheearly 2000s. The level of conditions, theyarestillbelow the the recentimprovement ineconomic home saleshave beenincreasingwith the previous 12months. Although 800 homessold,or4percent,from submarket totaled19,200,againof existing homesinthe 2016, salesof During the12monthsendingMarch price of anexisting homerose to price of From thelow in2008,theaverage sales 12 percent,annually to$97,350in2008. $15,800, ormorethan an average of price thenfellforthenext 3years by home salesmarket.Theaverage sales annually, aseasiercreditfueledthe $3,775,ornearly 3percent, increase of to peakin2005at$144,800,anaverage the priceincreasedsteadily for5years in thesubmarketwas $125,900,and anexisting single-family home price of 12 months. In2000,theaverage sales or nearly 12percent,fromtheprevious $13,200, home was $126,200,againof anexisting the average salespriceof the 12monthsendingMarch2016, has beenincreasingrecently. During average existing homesalespricealso Much likeexisting homesales, the annually. 2,700 homessold,ornearly 19percent, 18,750 homes, anaverage increaseof next 2years and,by2013,totaled Existing homesalesroseduringthe annually to13,350homessoldin2011. 1,950homes,average or10percent, of recession andhousingcrisis—byan thenational tive years—as aresultof existing homesalesfellfor6consecu - - -

Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 10 Sources: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey; estimatesbyanalysts Notes: Includestownhomes. Currentincludesdata throughMarch2016. Figure 8. 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 500 Sales Market—CuyahogaCountySubmarket Market TrendsHousing 0

2000 Single-Family HomesPermittedinthe Submarket,

2001

2002

2003 2000toCurrent

2004

2005

2006

2007 an REO property during the 12 months duringthe12months an REOproperty home sales. Theaverage salespriceof allexisting 2008, atnearly 40percentof 7,700during since reachingapeakof homes soldhasdecreasedgreatly REO the submarket.Thenumber of allexisting homesalesin percent of sold andaccountedfornearly 13 2016 totaledmorethan2,400homes during the12monthsendingMarch well below previous levels. REOsales home salesinthesubmarketbutare allexisting of significant portion makeupa REOproperties Sales of since 2008. $4,050, ornearly 4percent,annually $121,600 in2014,anaverage gainof family home construction werefamily from homeconstruction data).Thepeakyears forsingle- nary from theprevious 12months(prelimi or4percent, 30 homespermitted, homes were adecreaseof permitted, ending March2016,640single-family to mid-2000s. Duringthe12months below thelevel fromtheearly 2000s during thepast3years butisstillwell the Cuyahoga Countysub­ ted, hasremained relatively stablein homespermit ­­ured bythenumber of Single-family homebuilding, asmeas­ described earlier. existing homes average salespricesof sales have asignificanteffectonthe REO sales priceandthevolume of from $38,300in2008.Theaverage ending March2016was $43,600,up 2008 Continued 2009

2010

2011 Cuyahoga

2012

2013

2014 County market

2015

2016 - - -

Some newer developments inthe in2013. permitted before increasingto680homes annually, 460homespermitted of remained relatively stable, at an average 2012, single-family homeconstruction percent, annually. From 2010through orslightlypermitted, morethan25 310homes ted, anaverage declineof permit 460 single-familywere homes decreased steadily, and,by 2009, only that peak,single-family construction per 2,000homes including apeakof annuallypermitted inthesub­ 1,850single-family homeswere of 2000 through2004,whenanaverage price range. Cuyahoga County submarket,by market-rate saleshousinginthe shows estimateddemandfornew from $200,000to$299,999.Table 4 concentrated amonghomespriced demand. Demandisexpected tobe theforecast and satisfysomeof submarket may reenterthemarket 36,300 othervacant unitsinthe the during thefirstyear. of Aportion thedemand of tion willmeetpart 230 homescurrently underconstruc during thenext 3years (Table 1).The market-rate homesinthesubmarket Demand isforecastfor1,600new that development. range from$250,000to$425,000in nearing completion.Homeprices 2013andis sites inthesummerof 34home Ohio, of beganconstruction subdivision, inMayfield Heights, bathroom home. TheHiddenWoods $390,000 forathree-bedroom,two- homes, at withhome pricesstarting 33lotsfor new consistsof ground, development, whichrecently broke Westlake, Westlake. inthecityof The sub­ ­mitted in2004(Figure8).Following market include The Park of market includeThePark of market, - - Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 11 Sources: 2000and 2010—2000Censusand2010Census; current—estimatesbyanalysts Note: Thecurrent dateis April 1,2016. Figure 9. 10.0 12.0 14.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Sales Market—CuyahogaCountySubmarket Market TrendsHousing

2000 toCurrent Rental Vacancy RatesintheCuyahoga 2000 9.4 The current rental housingmarket The current Table 4. rate (20141-year ACS). vacancycancy rateandtheapartment difference between theoverallva rental were vacant, resulting inasignificant housingunitsinthosebuildings of 1-year ACS). Also, nearly 30percent with two, three, orfourunits(2014 a single-family homeorinabuilding renterhouseholdslived in percent of in Downtown Cleveland. About51 frompopulationgrowth resulting inpart down from13.2percentinApril2010, overallThe current vacancy rateis 9.5-percent vacancy rate(Figure9). is slightly softbutimproving, witha in theCuyahoga Countysubmarket mobile homes, units) andapartment (which includessingle-family homes, Source: Estimatesbyanalysts 2019. 1, mand. The forecastto period is April 2016, April 1, submarket willlikelysatisfysomeoftheforecast de the in units vacant other 36,300 Notes: The230homescurrentlyunderconstructionandaportionoftheestimated Rental Market—CuyahogaCountySubmarket 2010 13.2 Continued

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateSalesHousinginthe Cuyahoga 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 130,000 County From Price Range($) County Submarket, Current 9.5 and higher 499,999 449,999 399,999 349,999 299,999 249,999 199,999 Submarket To - The apartment marketduringMarch The apartment portion of previously vacant unitsto of portion 2011 thathave allowed foraconsiderable improving economicconditionssince home productionduring2010 and fall inresponsetoreducedmultifamily risen to7.0percent.Theratebegan to riseoncemoreand,by2009,had vacancythe apartment ratebegan thatbeganin2007, nomic downturn rate fellto5.6percent.With theeco vacancyand, by2007,theapartment caused developers toslow production, increase intherentalvacancy rate the economy begantolosejobs. That and roseto7.5percentduring2003,as rate inthesubmarketwas 4.3percent vacancyat theirpeak,theapartment payrollsIn 2000,whennonfarm were economic conditionsinthecounty. swings historically, on depending in thesubmarkethashadsignificant market March 2015.Theapartment $20,or3percent,from an increaseof submarket duringMarch2016is$822, average inthis rentforanapartment adjustments bytheanalysts). The per­ vacancy rate, upslightly from3.2 2016 isslightly tight,witha3.3-percent During theForecast Period cent 1year earlier(Reis, Inc., with Demand Units of 110 160 180 470 420 140 50 80 Percent of Total 10.0 11.0 29.0 26.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 - ­

Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 12 Sources: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey; estimatesbyanalysts Notes: Excludes townhomes. Currentincludesdata throughMarch2016. Figure 10. 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 200 400 600 800 Rental Market—CuyahogaCountySubmarket Market TrendsHousing 0

2000

Multifamily UnitsPermittedinthe Submarket 2001

2002

2003 , 2000toCurrent 2004

2005

2006

2007 the expanding leisureandhospitality venues, scene, adynamic arts and the HMA.Easily accessiblesporting fastest-growing employment sectorin sector,tion andhealthservices the jobsintheeduca a large number of residents withaneasycommute to transit systemprovides downtown ity’s (RTA’s) HealthLinebusrapid Cleveland Regional Transit Author ence tolive inthecitycenter. The benefiting frommillennials’prefer nation, Downtown Cleveland is Like manyothercitycentersinthe 2.7percent. vacancy rateof market hadbecometight,witha be absorbed.By2014,theapartment apartments inDowntownapartments Cleveland Since 2013,increasingdemandfor atleast5years. for aperiodof theunitsasrentals required tokeep into apartments. Developers ings are historicofficebuild conversion of allows fortherehabilitationand Downtown Cleveland. Theprogram isbeingusedextensivelyprogram in Historic Preservation Tax Credit housing inventory, becausetheOhio tive tothe toaddrentalapartments live. Developers alsohave anincen attractive placeforyoung adultsto sector makeDowntown Cleveland an 2008

2009 Continued Cuyahoga 2010

2011

2012 County 2013

2014

2015

2016 - - - - - 2003. Following theprevious peakpe annuallypermitted from2001through average 1,400units 3-year peakof which ishigherthantheprevious 1,475 unitswere annually, permitted 2013 through2015,anaverage of data).From months (preliminary to 1,500unitsfromtheprevious 12 by 450units, ornearly 43percent, multifamily grew unitspermitted ending March2016,thenumber of 2003 (Figure10).Duringthe12months Cuyahoga Countysubmarketsince multifamily the unitspermitted—in tion—as measuredbythenum­­ ­ highest level of and statetaxcreditshavethe resultedin $1,767 to$2,769 permonth. two-bedroom unitsthatrentfrom from $992to$1,403permonth and contains one-bedroomunitsthat rent building. The building apartment was recently converted into a 223-unit contained officespaceuntil2010and had beentheEastOhioBuilding, unit. TheResidences at1717,which unit to$3,900forathree-bedroom range from$1,550foraone-bedroom two-, andthree-bedroomunits. Rents buildingwith241one-, It isasix-story Downtown Cleveland. front districtof completed development inthewater The FlatsatEastBankisarecently 880 unitswere annually. permitted and, in2011and2012,anaverage of begantogrow,home construction HMA begantoimprove, multifamily the conditions. Astheeconomy of 2010 inresponsetoweaker economic in 890 annually340 to beforedeclining units­ number of and, from2007through2009,the 2006. Therentalmarketstabilized, annually in to770unitspermitted 24percent tion declinedanaverage of multifamilyunits permitted, construc riod, whichendedin2003,with1,750 multifamily construc permitted averagedpermitted ber of ber of - - - - Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 13 Rental Market—CuyahogaCountySubmarket Market TrendsHousing Table 5. Source: Estimatesbyanalysts 2016, to April 1,2019. 2,100 unitscurrentlyunderconstructionwilllikelysatisfysomeoftheestimateddemand.Theforecastperiodis April 1, Notes: Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.Monthlyrentdoesincludeutilitiesorconcessions.The Monthly Gross Total 950 ormore 750 to949 Rent ($) Zero Bedrooms

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateRentalHousingintheCuyahogaCounty Submarket Demand Units of 80 25 55 During theForecastPeriod of theOhioHistoricPreservation of $1,599 pricerange (Table 5).Because and two-bedroom unitsinthe$1,400-to- bedroom unitsinthe$1,200-to-$1,399 is expected forone- tobegreatest rental housingunits(Table 1).Demand demand isestimatedfor2,625new During the3-year forecastperiod, The average sales price of anREO The average salesprice of allexisting homesales. percent of 2,200during 2008,nearly 24 peak of decreased greatly since reachinga REOhomessoldhas The number of existing homesalesinthesubmarket. all accounted fornearly 10percentof 2016 totaledmorethan1,050and during the12monthsendingMarch REOhomessold levels. Thenumber of home salesbutarewell below previous allexisting of a significantportion makeup REOproperties Sales of 2010. 6.7percentinFebruary level of in March2015andwell below thepeak into REOstatus, down from4.0percent seriously delinquentorhadtransitioned loansinthesubmarketweremortgage all In March2016,3.8percentof down from2.1percentinApril2010. 1.8percent, with avacancy rateof the Suburbansubmarketisbalanced, sales housing marketin The current Sales Market—SuburbanSubmarket Monthly Gross 1,600 to1,799 1,400 to1,599 1,200 to1,399 1,000 to1,199 800 to999 Total 1,800 ormore Rent ($) Continued One Bedroom Demand Units of 1,125 170 450 230 170 55 55 Monthly Gross 1,800 to1,999 1,600 to1,799 1,400 to1,599 1,200 to1,399 1,000 to1,199 Total 2,000 ormore Rent ($) Two Bedrooms the forecastperiod. the demandduringfirst2years of willsatisfy currently underconstruction is likelyunits tooccurthere.2,100 The housing demandduringthenext 3years town Cleveland, nearly allrental faster-growing populationinDown Tax andtherelatively Creditprogram population growth andthenational slower 7 years, partly asaresultof percent, annually during thenext 370homessold,ormorethan17 of sales thendeclinedbyanaverage 3,500 homessoldin2004.New home the next 4years toreachapeakof or nearly 8percent,annually during 225, 2,600 andgrew byanaverage of new homessoldtotaled the number of growth duringtheseyears. In2000, submarket hasrecordedpopulation market partly becausetheSuburban than intheCuyahoga County sub submarket since2000have beenhigher 12 months. New homesalesinthe sold, or7percent,fromthe­ ending March2016,down by75homes totaled 1,075duringthe12months New homesalesinthesubmarket percent from$65,400ayear earlier. 15 March 2016 was $75,100, a gainof duringthe12monthsending property Demand Units of 1,300 190 430 360 180 90 40 Monthly Gross 1,850 ormore 1,650 to1,849 1,450 to1,649 1,250 to1,449 Total Three orMore Bedrooms Rent ($) previous Demand Units of 130 15 35 55 35 - - Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 14 Sales Market—SuburbanSubmarket Market TrendsHousing Continued to a peak of $255,800in2006.The to apeakof $10,150, ornearly 5percent,annually in 2000andgrew byanaverage of home inthissubmarketwas $195,000 The average salespriceforanew percent, fromtheprevious 12months. $19,200,ormorethan8 a gainof home inthesubmarketwas $250,000, 2016, theaverage salespriceforanew During the12monthsendingMarch annually. 170homes, ornearly 17percent, of homes sold,foranaverage increase more and,by2013,totaled1,250 new homesalesbegantogrow once during 2011.In2012,thenumber of housing crisis, to920homessold of $16,000,or 11 percent,fromthe of existing homewas $158,300, again an 2016, theaverage salespriceof During the12monthsending March homes, or10percent,annually. 950 homes sold,anaverage gainof rose and,by2013,totaled11,200 began toimprove, existing homesales homes soldin2010.Asconditions annually forthenext 5years to8,350 homes, ormorethan11percent, 1,375 decreasing byanaverage of 15,200homessoldannually, of before 2003 through2005,withanaver­ from homes peakedinthesubmarket existing previous 12months. Thesaleof homes, orlessthan 1percent,fromthe 100 sold totaled11,100,adeclineof existing homes 2016, thenumber of During the12monthsendingMarch than 1percent,to$220,300in2013. increasing by$3,000,orslightly more home remainedrelatively before flat anew 2012, theaverage salespriceof $217,500 in2009.From 2010through or morethan5percent,annually to $12,750, then fellbyanaverage of anew home average salespriceof age by 2014,ithadreached$154,500,an home begantoriseoncemore, and, anexisting the average salespriceof the economy beginningtoimprove, less than5percent,annually. With $7,100,orslightlyby anaverage of an existing home was $134,900, down of crisis. In2011,theaverage salesprice to thenationalrecessionandhousing fell for4years, however, inresponse anexisting homethen sales priceof than 4percent,annually. Theaverage nearly $5,000,orless age increaseof $163,300, an aver to the peak price of was $128,400and,by2007,hadrisen anexisting home age salespriceof previous 12 months. In2000, the aver homes inthesubmarket hasbegun single-family of the construction again in2011to1,175.Since 2011, unchanged from2009,only to decline family remained homespermitted single- in 2010,whenthenumber of Permitting activity stabilizedbriefly 1,350homes in2009. 2004 toalow of or 22percent,from4,700homesin 670homes,then fellbyanaverage of per single-family homes the number of period, from2000through2004, County submarket.Duringthepeak the trendobserved intheCuyahoga closelyin thesubmarketmirrored growth anddecline overall trendof data).The 12 months(preliminary homes, or18percent, fromtheprevious 300 waspermitted 1,950,againof single-family homes the number of the 12monthsendingMarch2016, Cuyahoga Countysubmarket.During Suburban submarketthaninthe hasbeenstrongerpermitted, inthe homes measured bythenumber of Single-family homebuilding, as 5 percent,annually since2011. $6,550,ornearlyaverage increaseof ­mitted averaged 4,400 annually but - - Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 15 Sources: U.S.CensusBureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey;estimatesbyanalysts Notes: Includestownhomes.CurrentincludesdatathroughMarch2016. Figure 11. Table 6. Source: Estimatesbyanalysts 2019. 1, to April demand. Theforecastperiod is 2016, April 1, submarket willlikelysatisfysomeoftheforecast the in units vacant other 13,500 Notes: The570homescurrentlyunderconstructionandaportionoftheestimated Sources: 2000and 2010—2000Censusand2010Census; current—estimatesbyanalysts Note: Thecurrent dateis April 1,2016. Figure 12. 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Sales Market—SuburbanSubmarket Market TrendsHousing 10.0 12.0 0 8.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateSalesHousingin the 2000

 Single-Family HomesPermittedinthe Submarket, 500,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 136,000 2000 toCurrent Rental Vacancy Ratesinthe From

Suburban Submarket 2001 Price Range($) 2000 2002 6.7

2003 2000toCurrent 2004 and higher 499,999 399,999 349,999 299,999 249,999 199,999 2005 To

2006 Continued 2007 During theForecast Period permitted since2000. permitted single-family homes the number of 2012 through2013.Figure11shows annuallyhomes permitted from 1,525 to expand, withanaverage of percent inApril2010(Figure12).The 6.4percent,down from10.6 rate of estimatedrentalvacancy with acurrent the Suburbansubmarketisbalanced, The overall rentalhousingmarketin Rental Market—SuburbanSubmarket 2008 10.6 2010 Demand Units of Suburban

1,325 1,125 2009 140 380 520 750 470

2010

2011 Suburban Submarket,

2012 Percent of Total 2013 11.0 16.0 28.0 24.0 10.0 3.0 8.0

2014 Current 6.4

2015

2016 (Table 1).The570homescurrently submarket duringthenext 3years market-rate homesintheSuburban Demand isforecastfor4,700new two-bathroom home. at$335,000forathree-bedroom, start one lotremaining, andhomeprices tion. This32-lotdevelopment has in LorainCounty, isnearingcomple The GramercyPlacesubdivision, also three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. at$280,000fora final phasestart 29 homesites. Homeprices in this which isdeveloping itsfinalphaseof a development inLorainCounty, submarket includeColumbiaReserve, Some recentdevelopments inthe market isextremely tight.During Suburban submarket, theapartment Unlike theoverall rentalmarketinthe vacancyand apartment rates. large differencesbetween the overall rent inthissubmarketcontributes to family homesthatareavailable for single- ACS). Thelarge number of in2010(20141-year percent reported in single-family homes, upfrom39 allrenterhouseholds live percent of previously vacant units. About44 many allowed of forabsorption from2010 through2013 permitted multifamily units limited number of $200,000 to$299,999(Table 6). to behighestforhomespricedfrom forecast demand.Demandisexpected the the marketandsatisfysomeof units inthesubmarketmay reenter the13,500othervacant of portion the demandduringfirstyear. A of willmeetpart under construction - Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 16 Sources: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey; estimatesbyanalysts Notes: Excludes townhomes. Currentincludesdata throughMarch2016. Figure 13. 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 500 Rental Market—SuburbanSubmarket Market TrendsHousing 0

2000

Multifamily UnitsPermittedinthe 2000 toCurrent 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007 Continued what andbecomemorebalanced. submarket isexpected torisesome vacancythe apartment rateinthe as thoseunitscomeonthemarket, ket duringthepast2years; occurred inthesubmar construction apartment other thanapartments. Anuptickin rentalunits and theavailability of population growth thatlimitsdemand slow been fairly modestbecauseof low vacancy rates, rentincreaseshave than 1percent,to$834.Even with in thesubmarketroseby$9,ormore (Reis, Inc.). Theaverage askingrent down from1.8percentayear earlier rate inthesubmarketwas 1.0percent, vacancyMarch 2016,theapartment eco­ 4 percent,annually. Since2011, rent increasesaveraged $23,ornearly percent by2008.Atthesametime, and thevacancy rateroseto7.1 market conditionsbegantosoften apartment the economicdownturn, changed at$652. Then,inresponseto and theaverage rentremainedun vacancy ratedeclinedto5.5percent During 2004and2005,theapartment $9, ormorethan1percent,annually. and theaverage rentgrew to$652,up vacancy ratehadrisento7.4percent average rentwas $625.By2003,the vacancy ratewas 5.6percentandthe submarket. In2000,theapartment lar trendstotheCuyahoga County ket historically hasfollowed very simi marketinthesubmar The apartment 2008 nomic conditionshave improved

2009 Suburban 2010

2011

2012

Submarket 2013

2014

2015 - ,

2016 - - - - of units permitted averaged unitspermitted 1,075 of data).Bycomparison,thenumber nary from theprevious 12months(prelimi 850, upby220units, or35percent, multifamily totaled unitspermitted ending March2016,thenumber of through 2013.Duringthe12months very low productionfrom2009 of in thepast2years, following aperiod increased intheSuburbansubmarket multifamily unitspermitted, of activity, asmeasuredbythenumber Multifamily homeconstruction have risen2percentannually. percent in2014,andaverage rents decreased steadily, reaching2.0 vacancyand theapartment ratehas for one-bedroom unitswithmonthly Demand isexpected tobestrongest Suburban submarket(Table 1). market-rate rentalunitsinthe demand isestimatedfor1,200 new During the3-year forecastperiod, two-bedroom unit. one-bedroom unitand$674fora building. Rents at$523fora start 54-unit affordableseniorapartment is arecently completedfour-story, Southwick ManorinMedinaCounty rents rangingfrom$1,174to$1,499. from $999to$1,114andtwo-bedroom units, with one-bedroom rents ranging recently completedandincludes180 inLakeCountywasapartments The Residences Riverwalk atChagrin since2000. units permitted multifamily 13 shows thenumber of in2013.Figure to 100unitspermitted were andthenfellsharply permitted, 270multifamilyan average units of ately from2011through2012,when Permitting activity expanded moder only in2010. 110unitspermitted 68percentannuallyan average to of 2005 through2008beforedeclining annually duringthepeakperiodfrom - - Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 17 Rental Market—SuburbanSubmarket Market TrendsHousing Data Profiles Table DP-1. Sources: U.S.CensusBureau;DepartmentofHousingandUrban Development;estimatesbyanalysts 2016. 1, is April date current and the12monthsthrough March 2016.MedianFamilyIncomesare for 1999,2009,and2014.The Employment data represent annual averages for 2000, 2010, rounding. of because totals to add not may Notes: Numbers Table 7. Source: Estimatesbyanalysts 2016, to April 1,2019. 770 unitscurrentlyunderconstructionwilllikelysatisfysomeoftheestimateddemand.Theforecastperiodis April 1, Notes: Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.Monthlyrentdoesincludeutilitiesorconcessions.The Total resident employment Percent renter Renter households Percent owner Owner households Total households Total population Nonfarm payroll jobs Unemployment rate Median FamilyIncome Rental vacancyrate Owner vacancyrate Total housingunits Monthly Gross Total 500 ormore Rent ($) Zero Bedrooms

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateRentalHousingintheSuburbanSubmarket During theForecastPeriod Cleveland-Elyria HMA, Demand Units of 10 10 Continued (Table 7).The770unitscurrently rents rangingfrom$1,000to$1,199 for two-bedroom unitswithmonthly rents rangingfrom$850to$1,049and Monthly Gross Total 1,250 ormore 1,050 to1,249 850 to1,049 650 to849 2,148,143 1,136,000 1,060,860 Rent ($) $52,600 911,356 272,293 580,872 853,165 2000 One Bedroom 31.9% 68.1% 8.8% 1.3% 2.7% DataProfile, 2000toCurrent Demand Units of 2,077,240 520 310 100 $64,800 955,756 285,029 569,864 854,893 990,900 964,124 25 80 2010 12.6% 33.3% 66.7% 2.5% 8.4% Monthly Gross Total 1,400 ormore 1,200 to1,399 1,000 to1,199 800 to999 Rent ($) Two Bedrooms 2,058,000 1,048,000 Current $62,600 946,800 313,600 541,000 854,600 976,500 36.7% 63.3% 8.7% 2.2% 4.7% the forecastperiod. thedemandforfirst2years of of willsatisfymuch under construction Demand Units of 600 120 330 2000 to2010 60 90 Average AnnualChange(%) – 0.2 – 0.3 – 1.4 – 1.0 2.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 Monthly Gross Total 1,400 ormore 1,200 to1,399 1,000 to1,199 Three orMore Bedrooms Rent ($) 2010 toCurrent – 0.7 – 0.2 – 0.9 – 0.2 1.6 0.0 1.1 0.2 Demand Units of 70 15 35 20 0 Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 18 Data Profiles Sources: U.S.CensusBureau;DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment;estimatesbyanalysts Notes: Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.Thecurrentdateis April 1,2016. Sources: U.S.CensusBureau;DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment;estimatesbyanalysts Notes: Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.Thecurrentdateis April 1,2016. Table DP-3. Table DP-2. Rental vacancyrate Owner vacancyrate Total housingunits Percent renter Renter households Percent owner Owner households Total households Total population Rental vacancyrate Owner vacancyrate Total housingunits Percent renter Renter households Percent owner Owner households Total households Total population

Continued Suburban Submarket Cuyahoga CountySubmarket 1,393,978 294,453 219,892 281,708 754,165 616,903 210,477 360,980 571,457 61,816 2000 2000 21.9% 78.1% 36.8% 63.2% 6.7% 1.2% 9.4% 1.4% Data Profile Data Profile 1,280,122 333,993 237,988 309,837 797,118 621,763 213,180 331,876 545,056 71,849 2010 2010 10.6% 23.2% 76.8% , 2000toCurrent 13.2% 39.1% 60.9% 2.1% 2.8% , 2000toCurrent 1,252,000 Current Current 338,900 232,600 315,350 806,300 608,000 230,800 308,500 539,300 82,750 26.2% 73.8% 42.8% 57.2% 6.4% 1.8% 9.5% 2.5% 2000 to2010 2000 to2010 Average AnnualChange(%) Average AnnualChange(%) – 0.8 – 0.5 – 0.8 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.8 1.0 0.6 2010 toCurrent 2010 toCurrent – 0.4 – 0.4 – 1.2 – 0.2 – 0.4 0.2 2.4 0.3 0.2 1.3 Cleveland-Elyria, OH • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 19 make an estimate of this additional construction this additionalconstruction make anestimateof a result,theanalysts, throughdiligent fieldwork, intheresidentialbuildingpermits.As not reflected are some unitsclassifiedascommercialstructures For buildingpermit. example, a differenttypeof orareissued or createdwithoutabuildingpermit occurs inanHMA.Someunitsareconstructed sarily allresidentialbuildingactivity that reflect Building Permits: donotneces­ Buildingpermits Census Bureau. specifiedas“other”vacantthe category bythe workers;or occasionaluse;usedbymigrant and but notoccupied;heldforseasonal,recreational, thereforeincludes unitsrentedorsold The term units thatarenotavailable forsaleorrent. analysis, othervacant unitsincludeallvacant Housing andUrbanDevelopment’s (HUD’s) Other Vacant Units:IntheU.S. of Department the development pipeline. orunitsin for unitscurrently underconstruction excess vacancies. Theestimatesdonotaccount theanalysis, growth, losses, and dateof the as-of the3-year forecastperiodgiven conditionson of needed toachieve abalancedmarketattheend thetotalhousingproduction the estimatesof buildingactivity.are notaforecastof Theyare Demand: Thedemandestimatesintheanalysis 28,2013. the OMBBulletindatedFebruary Management andBudget (OMB)in the Officeof isbasedon thedelineationsestablishedby report The metropolitanstatisticalareadefinitioninthis Forecast period:4/1/2016–4/1/2019—Analysts’ date:4/1/2016—Analysts’Current estimates 2010: 4/1/2010—U.S. Decennial Census 2000: 4/1/2000—U.S. Decennial Census Data DefinitionsandSources estimates huduser.gov/portal/ushmc/chma_archive.html For onothermarketareas, additionalreports please goto [email protected] 312–913–8894 Chicago HUDRegional Office Tomasz Kukawski, Economist Contact Information CMARtables_Cleveland_ElyriaOH_16.pdf for thisHMA,goto For tothehousingmarket additionaldatapertaining permits. single-family andmultifamily building discussions of activity. theseestimatesareincludedinthe Someof on localeconomicandhousingmarketconditions. government officialswhoprovided dataandinformation sourcesandstatelocal appreciation tothoseindustry fied bysubsequentdevelopments. HUDexpresses its sources. Assuch,findingsorconclusionsmay bemodi tion datefromlocalandnational available ontheas-of as possiblebasedoninforma are asthoroughandcurrent and MarketAnalysis Division. Theanalysis andfindings guidelines andmethodsdeveloped byHUD’s Economic The factualframework forthisanalysis follows the may beunderconsiderationbytheDepartment. insuranceproposalsthat anymortgage of acceptability regardingthe tomakedeterminations does notpurport housing marketconditionsandtrends. Theanalysis builders, mortgagees, withlocal andothersconcerned tion, findings, andconclusionsmay alsobeusefulto HUDinitsoperations. Thefactualinforma guidance of This analysis fortheassistanceand hasbeen prepared [email protected] 817–978–9401 Fort Worth HUDRegional Office Tim McDonald,LeadEconomist huduser.gov/publications/pdf/ .

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