9 June 2021
Free to View Two-speed world Economics - Global
Key charts on the global recovery
The US economy continues to thrive and Europe’s recovery https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/20/F6dP Ns7Henryhttps://www.research.hsbc.com/ Ward could catch up in the coming months… Analyst HSBC Bank plc …but the pandemic is still raging in ASEAN and LatAm, James Pomeroy Economist inflation is surging, and house prices are soaring… HSBC Bank plc Vipul Jindal …meaning that governments and central banks may have Associate Bangalore some tough choices ahead Bangalore
Western economies are unlocking and American, British, and European consumers are opening their wallets and returning to shops and restaurants in droves. But in Latin America and much of Asia COVID-19 cases are rising, restrictions are tightening, and vaccines are in short supply. It is increasingly clear we are in a two-speed world. The US is already close to returning to pre-pandemic levels of GDP, as re-opening and fiscal stimulus have lifted the services PMIs to record highs. The data out of UK and Europe are very promising and re-opening coinciding with summer should lead to a big boost to the services sector. However, they have much further to go than the US with their recoveries: in Q1 2021 the UK GDP was still 8.7% below its Q4 2019 level. Australia hit pre-pandemic levels of activity in Q1. As restrictions have eased in Europe and the vaccine rollout has picked up steam, consumers are feeling more secure in their jobs, mobility data is up, and in France business confidence is back to pre-pandemic levels. In mainland China the recovery may be softening, particularly on the consumer side. Stripping out base effects, retail sales growth cooled in April and weaker services PMIs suggest that the weakness may have sustained in May. Demand for Chinese products as well as fiscal stimulus in US and Europe continues to drive exports growth, however. However, not all parts of the world are seeing an economic resurgence, as activity is now tightly linked to COVID-19 case numbers and we have seen those economies with big spikes in cases having to re-impose restrictions. Having reached pre-pandemic levels in February, India’s recovery tracker has now plummeted by 34% and mobility data has collapsed. In ASEAN, spikes in cases have led to more restrictions in Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia. LatAm is the other COVID-19 hotspot in the world with cases rising in May and vaccine levels still relatively low (with Chile the exception). Brazil’s industrial production has fallen each month since February having previously grown for 10 consecutive months. With all this growth comes inflationary pressures: US inflation surged to 4.2% in April y-o-y and input prices across the world have soared due to supply bottlenecks and rising commodity prices. House prices across the developed world are also hitting new heights – and coupled with better growth and higher inflation may make some central bankers start to think about how loose policy should remain in the coming quarters.
This is an abridged version of a report by the same title published on 09-Jun-21. Please contact your HSBC representative or email [email protected] for more information.
Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in View HSBC Global Research at: the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. https://www.research.hsbc.com
Free to View ● Economics - Global 9 June 2021
COVID-19 & vaccines rollouts
The pandemic is still raging 1. Latin America is seeing the highest rate of COVID-19 cases … in Latin America and ASEAN, Cases/mn Latest number of daily COVID-19 cases per million population (7dma) Cases/mn where case numbers are 800 800 rising 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100
0 0
UK US
Italy
India
Chile
Brazil Qatar
Spain
Korea
Japan
Russia
Turkey
France
Poland
Mexico
Norway
Canada
Sweden
Thailand
Australia
Malaysia
Germany
Colombia
Argentina
Indonesia
Singapore
Philippines
Hong Kong Hong
Switzerland
South Africa South
Saudi Arabia Saudi New Zealand New
Latest 1m ago China Mainland Source: Refinitiv Datastream
COVID-19 deaths follow the 2. Whilst cases numbers are rising in the 3. … and deaths are sinking thanks to split between the vaccine UK, it is amongst younger people … vaccine rollouts haves and have nots /100k England: rolling rate of COVID-19 cases /100k 7 dma New COVID-19 deaths 7 dma by age group 4000 400 80 80 3500 350 60 60 3000 300 2500 250 40 40 2000 200 1500 150 20 20 1000 100 500 50 0 0
0 0 5-9
90+ Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21
20-24 35-39 50-54 65-69 10-14 15-19 25-29 30-34 40-44 45-49 55-59 60-64 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 30/05/2021 01/05/2021 UK US Mainland China (RHS) Source: Public Health England. Source: Refinitiv Datastream
Global indicators
4. Mobility data shows the impact of India’s wave of virus cases… Brazil’s mobility data and low % from baseline Google Mobility : Retail & Recreation* % from baseline vaccination rate may explain 20 20 its high case numbers 0 0
-20 -20
-40 -40
-60 -60
-80 -80
-100 -100 15-Feb-20 15-May-20 15-Aug-20 15-Nov-20 15-Feb-21 15-May-21 Australia Brazil France India UK US Source: Google Mobility Reports
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The US leads the global rebound
5. The US is closing in on pre-pandemic 6. US consumers are spending above pre- US is nearly back to its pre- GDP levels … pandemic levels … pandemic levels of GDP, UK % GDP in Q1 2021 relativ e to Q4 2019 % US Consumer Spending remains well below 2 2 % v s Jan 20 (7dma) % v s Jan 20 (7dma) 40 40 0 0 20 20 -2 -2
-4 -4 0 0
-6 -6 -20 -20 -8 -8 US consumers are getting -40 -40 -10 -10 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 more confident as the Total Low Income economy re-opens Middle Income High Income
Source: Refinitiv Datastream Source: Track the Recovery
UK opens up despite caution on variants
7. The UK economic recovery is now 8. … as consumers are flocking back into The UK economy’s rebound happening sooner… pubs and restaurants has been brought forward Index , Q4 2019=100 UK: GDP forecasts Index , Q4 2019=100 %Yr v s 2019 UK: Restaurant bookings-7DMA %Yr v s 2019 105 105 80 80 100 100 60 60 40 40 95 95 20 20 90 90 0 0 85 85 -20 -20 80 80 -40 -40 75 75 -60 -60 -80 -80
-100 -100
Q1 2020 Q1 2020 Q3 2021 Q1 2021 Q3 2022 Q1 2022 Q3 2023 Q1 2023 Q3 Q2 2020 Q2 2020 Q4 2021 Q2 2021 Q4 2022 Q2 2022 Q4 2023 Q2 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 Q4 2019 Q4 Feb-20 Jul-20 Dec-20 May-21 BoE May 2021 HSBC forecasts BoE February 2021 OBR March 2021 Source: HSBC, Bank of England, OBR. Source: Opentable
The EU recovery is accelerating as vaccines pick up
9. French business confidence is back 10. …and German firms have high Europe’s improvement in above pre-crises levels… expectations for the recovery vaccinations has unlocked a Index French Business confidence Index Index Germany : ifo business climate Index new found confidence 120 120 110 110 110 110 100 100 100 100 90 90 80 80 90 90 70 70 60 60 80 80 50 50 40 40 70 70 2019 2020 2021 May-05 May-09 May-13 May-17 May-21 Services Industry Business climate Current assessment Retail trade Total Expectations Source: INSEE Source: Refinitiv Datastream
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Mainland China’s uneven recovery
11. Services PMIs are strong, but 12. …and consumer confidence has also Mainland China’s data is momentum maybe waning… dipped recently after a strong comeback beginning to normalise as the Index Mainland China PMI Index Index Mainland China: Consumer confidence Index pandemic effects ease up 60 60 135 135 55 55 130 130 125 125 50 50 120 120 45 45 115 115 110 110 40 40 105 105 35 35 100 100 95 95 30 30 90 90 25 25 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2016 2018 2020 Consumer satisfaction Consumer expectation Services - Headline Manufacturing - Headline
Source: IHS Markit Source: Refinitiv Datastream
India & ASEAN are still suffering the worst of COVID-19
13. India’s recovery tracker plummeted to 14. With the exception of Singapore, cases India acts as a reminder that 34% below pre-pandemic levels are rising in ASEAN … the pandemic is far from over Index Feb=100 Recov ery tracker Index Feb=100 7dma Daily new cases 7dma across the world 110 110 15000 1500 100 100 12000 1200
90 90 9000 900 80 80 6000 600 70 70 ASEAN may have to continue 66.4 3000 300 with restrictions into 2022 60 60 0 0 unless rollouts pick up 50 50 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 40 40 Indonesia Malaysia Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Philippines Thailand Singapore (RHS) Vietnam (RHS) Source: CEIC, POSOCO, GSTN, HSBC. The tracker includes six variables: Google Source: OWID mobility (workplace, recreation), Apple mobility (driving), labour force participation, electricity consumption and e-way bills generation
Latin America is also struggling with the pandemic
15. Cases in Latin America remain 16. Economic activity is approaching pre- Latin America is in desperate elevated and things aren’t getting any pandemic levels despite the pandemic… need for the vaccination pace better… to increase as cases surge Cases/mn COVID-19 (7dma) Cases/mn Jan 2020=100,sa Economic activity Jan 2020=100,sa 800 800 110 110 700 700 600 600 100 100 500 500 400 400 90 90 300 300 200 200 100 100 80 80 0 0
70 70
Chile Brazil
Mexico Apr-19 Sep-19 Feb-20 Jul-20 Dec-20 May-21 Colombia Argentina Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Latest 1m ago Source: Refinitiv Datastream Source: Refinitiv Datastream
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Inflationary pressures keep building
17. Breakeven rates have been on the rise 18. … and the much anticipated inflation is US headline CPI breached 4% for months … now with us in April and is set to rise % US: Breakeven inflation rates % % Yr US: Inflation % Yr further in May 3.0 3.0 5 5 2.5 2.5 4 4 2.0 2.0 3 3 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 2 2
0.5 0.5 1 1 0.0 0.0 0 0 Jan-11 Feb-13 Mar-15 Apr-17 May-19 Jun-21 Jan-18 Nov-18 Sep-19 Jul-20 May-21 5 Year 10 Year CPI Core CPI Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Source: Refinitiv Datastream
Market volatility persists
19. Oil prices have risen to a two-year 20. …as commodities continue to surge The commodities market has high… across the board boomed as demand has USD Oil futures prices USD % Yr Commodities: Latest change in price % Yr exceeded expectations 100 100 175 175 150 150 80 80 125 125 60 60 100 100 75 75 40 40 50 50 25 25 20 20
0 0 Tin
0 0 Corn
Grains
Biofuel Gas oil Gas
Jun-18 Jan-19 Aug-19 Mar-20 Oct-20 May-21 Copper
Soybeans
Natural Gas Natural Brent Crude Brent Brent WTI Oil Soybean
Source: Factset Source: Refinitiv Datastream
21. Shipping costs keep rising, putting 22. …as seen in the PMI data Container shortages and port upward pressure on input costs… congestion are driving costs USD Container freight rates (40ft container) USD Index Manufacturing PMI: World Index and delaying orders 12000 12000 75 75 10000 10000 70 70
8000 8000 65 65
6000 6000 60 60 55 55 4000 4000 50 50 2000 2000 45 45 0 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 40 40 China/East Asia to North Europe 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 China/East Asia to Mediterranean Output Prices Input Prices Source: Refinitiv Datastream Source: IHS Markit
5 Free to View ● Economics - Global 9 June 2021
Housing markets are booming
23. Prices are up across developed 24. … with New Zealand experiencing House prices are up across markets … house growth of over 20% y-o-y the world as consumers look % Yr House prices % Yr % Yr 15 countries w ith highest house price growth % Yr for more space 15 15 35 35 30 30 10 10 25 25 20 20 5 5 15 15 0 0 10 10 5 5 -5 -5 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 0 0
Norway Canada UK
NZL LTU
LUX
NLD AUT CZE
SVK
TUR USA PER
RUS CAN
GBR NOR US Germany SWE Source: Refinitiv Datastream Source: Knight Frank’s Global House Price Index, Q1 2021
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Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the covering analyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any other views or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Henry Ward and James Pomeroy Important disclosures This document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for the clients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means. 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