Greece Exemple (1/2)

INVESTMENT CASE !1 GREECE EXEMPLE (1/2) • The narrative behind the investments made in Greece since March 2018 ETG - Greece Stock Index 1 5 2 3 4 1 Communist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is elected with an anti-austerity and Eurosceptic campaign, nearly taking Greece out of the Eurozone (Grexit). Greece had already received two bailout packages from the Troika since the 2009 crisis, but needed a 3rd one in 2H15, which came attached to a significant reform agenda. The Greek stock index (ATG) went down 68% in 23 months. In the context of the 3rd bailout program, despite the communist bias of the government, Greece was forced to implement 2 more than 400 reforms over 24 months. It delivered the biggest fiscal adjustment in the history of the Eurozone - from a deficit of 8.5% to a surplus of more than 3.5% in 2017 and 2018. Greek banks were in the center of European financial crises and still carry the highest NPL ratio in Europe. After being recapitalized 3 in 2010, 2013 and 2015, Greek Banks passed the European Central Bank stress test in May, 2018, without the need of additional capital. This was the recognition that significant progress had been made in provisioning policies, control systems, governance and capital ratios. Greece “graduates” from the 3rd bailout with a significant cash buffer (€30bn), debt relief measures (grace period for more 4 than 50% of its debt until 2032 and interest rate caps at around 1%), a growing economy and continuously falling unemployment rate. 5 European Parliament elections take place and New Democracy, a center-right, pro reform and pro growth party, decisively defeats Syriza (Tsipras’ party), forcing snap elections in July 2019. !5 GREECE EXEMPLE (2/2) • Sample of investments made in Greece since March 2018 Founded in 1916, Piraeus is the largest bank in Greece, with over 550 branches and about 12k employees serving over 5.3mn clients. In 2017, the bank implemented a top management and board restructuring; today, Piraeus is perceived as having the best talent in Greece. Eurobank Ergasias is Greece’s 3rd largest lender, having significant and profitable operations in Cyprus, Lux, Serbia and Bulgaria, with a total 13k employees. It also has a top notch management team and board of directors. Opap is the leading gaming company in Greece, founded in 1958 as the country’s national lottery. It is the exclusive license operator of all numeral lotteries and sports betting activities. Opap has the largest footprint of any Greek retailer, with more than 4 thousand points of sales. Hellenic Telecom is the dominant telco in Greece and one of the largest in Southeastern Europe. It was privatized in 1996 and currently employs 30k people in 4 countries. Due Diligence process: • Country Specific: Finance Minister, Central Bank directors, leadership of main parties in Congress, political and economic consultants. • Company Specific: Board members, Regulators, CEOs, CFOs, IRs and specific industry consultants and participants for all positions and its main competitors. Source: Reuters, Helm calculations. Pre crisis peak for Piraeus and Eurobank, May 2016 (multiple is P/BV). Pre crisis peak for Opap and OTE, Jan 2018 (Mulitple is EV/EBITDA) !6 !7.

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AXIA Research
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