BIBLIOGRAPHY I
POVERTY REDUCTION IN THE MALDIVES: ISSUES, FINDINGS, AND APPROACHES
Asian Development Bank January 2002 II POVERTY REDUCTION IN THE MALDIVES: ISSUES, FINDINGS, AND APPROACHES
© Asian Development Bank 2001 All rights reserved
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this study are those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to Asian Development Bank (ADB) or the countries it represents.
The Asian Development Bank encourages use of the material presented herein, with appropriate credit.
Published by the Asian Development Bank P.O. Box 789 0980 Manila, Philippines
ISBN: 971-561-433-7 Publication Stock No. 030302 INTRODUCTION III
FOREWORD
he Asian Development Bank (ADB) has launched a series of initiatives to develop better approaches to reduce poverty in the Maldives, following the adoption of poverty reduction as its overarching Tgoal in November 1999. Important among these initiatives is the preparation of a poverty assess- ment to better understand the nature of poverty in the country and to provide a set of strategic options for ADB in assisting the Government to reduce poverty. The Maldives has achieved commendable economic development and social progress over the past decades. However, poverty still exists in the country. It is characterized by regional disparities between Malé and the atolls in terms of incomes, employment opportunities, and access to economic infrastructure and social services. Vulnerability is also a main feature of the economy, as it is narrowly based on virtually two sectors, tourism and fisheries, which are significantly influenced by external factors. This report was presented at the High-Level Forum on Poverty Reduction and Country Strategy held in Malé in May 2001. Participants in the forum assessed the report and presented their views on the specific role of ADB in assisting the Government to operationalize its strategy. The key findings of the report and discussions during the forum have been culminated in ADB’s Country Strategy and Program for the Maldives (2002-2006) and a partnership agreement on poverty reduction between the Government and ADB. The agreement will formalize a sustainable partnership setting a long-term vision and agreed targets and strategies for poverty reduction. This study was managed by Hideaki Imamura, Programs Officer, Operations Coordination Divi- sion, South Asia Department, with the support of William Murray. Marshuk Ali Shah, Country Director, Pakistan Resident Mission and former Programs Manager, Division 1, Programs Department (West), and S. Hafeez Rahman, Director, Operations Coordination Division, South Asia Department, provided overall guidance. Valuable assistance and support was provided by the Government of Maldives.
Yoshihiro Iwasaki Director General South Asia Department INTRODUCTION V
CONTENTS
ABBREVIATIONS vi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY vii
I. INTRODUCTION 1
II. POVERTY PROFILE 1 Manifestations of Poverty 1 Causes of Poverty 13
III. RESPONSES TO POVERTY TO DATE 17 Government Policies, Public Expenditures, and the Poor 17 Nongovernment Organizations and the Private Sector 18 External Assistance to Date for Poverty Reduction 19 ADB’s Strategy and Assistance to Date 21 IV. POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR 22 THE GOVERNMENT AND EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE AGENCIES Overall Framework 22 Key Strategic Areas 23 ADB’s Proposed Poverty Reduction Strategy for the Maldives 25 BIBLIOGRAPHY 27
Table Changes in Gross Domestic Product by Sectoral Origin 2
Figures 1 Population Changes in Malé and the Atolls 5 2 Indicative Atoll Migration, 1977-2000 6 3 Indicative Income Distribution for Malé and the Other Islands, 2000 6 4 Foreign Labor, 1989-2000 8 5 Annual Increments of Foreign Workers 8 6 Percentage of Children in School by Age 11 7 Nutritional Condition of Children Under 5 Years (WHO Standards) 10 8 Cumulative Serious Malnutrition Geographic Disparities in Children Under 5 Years (WHO Standards) 11 9 Ratio of Males to 100 Females, 1985-2000 12
Appendixes 1 Key Economic and Social Data 29 2 Maldives: High-Level Forum on Poverty Reduction and Count Strategy 30 VI POVERTY REDUCTION IN THE MALDIVES: ISSUES, FINDINGS, AND APPROACHES
ABBREVIATIONS
ADB – Asian Development Bank COS – country operational strategy EEZ – exclusive economic zone EU – European Union FNDP – Fifth National Development Plan GDI – Gender Development Index GDP – gross domestic product HLF – High-Level Forum on Poverty Reduction and Country Strategy HVI – human vulnerability index IMF – International Monetary Fund LDC – least developed country MCHE – Maldives College for Higher Education MIFCO – Maldives Industrial Fisheries Company NDR – northern development region NGO – nongovernment organization SDR – southern development region UNDP – United Nations Development Programme UNICEF – United Nations Childrens’ Fund US – United States VPA – Vulnerability and Poverty Assessment WHO – World Health Organization
NOTE
In this report, “$” refers to US dollars. INTRODUCTION VII
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
he word “poverty” does not occur in Dhivehi, eign exchange remittance. Malnutrition is also a the Maldivian language, with the same concern, which is prevalent with nearly 50% of chil- Tconnotations as in English. In fact very few dren suffering from stunting and wasting due to Maldivians are destitute—fewer than elsewhere in poor nutrition. South Asia, or indeed in many developed countries. Unlike its regional neighbors, Maldivian However, the Government fully recognizes that society has not been subjected to colonialism, and households and communities, as well as the coun- has consequently developed its own forms of try itself, are disadvantaged by their vulnerability. government and administration. With the increas- Poverty in the Maldives context differs from ing need to interface with the rest of the world, that of many other countries. In the Maldives, however, it is necessary to bring certain elements poverty alleviation primarily means the reduction of administration and practice into line with in- of regional disparities in living conditions, since ternational norms within the Maldivian context, poverty problems in the country are related to re- e.g., elements of the legal, financial, and account- moteness of the islands and lack of services in the ing systems in both the public and private sectors. atolls. Personal incomes are significantly higher in A strategy for poverty reduction in the Malé than in the atolls. Economic and social infra- Maldives is required to address these concerns. Key structures including ports, roads, schools, hospi- strategic areas are (i) outer island development tals, water and sanitation system, have accumulated through the provision of basic social and economic largely in Malé, while access to these is disadvan- infrastructure and credit to spur household income taged in the atolls. Employment opportunities are generation and the creation of economic and em- very limited in the outer islands. The disparities ployment opportunities, to promote an equitable have led to the recent accelerating trend of migra- distribution of the benefits of economic growth to tion to Malé from the atolls, which could further the disadvantaged island populations, supported by deplete the development prospects of the outer population consolidation; (ii) human resource islands, and worsen the living condition in Malé, development, especially through improved educa- possibly intensifying urban poverty. On the public tion and training to meet the skill demands of a sector institutional aspect, the limited capacity of modern economy, and a reduced reliance on for- local authorities and communities at the atoll and eign labor through improved labor regulations, island levels has prevented the adequate planning together with the creation of new employment and management of the development of the outer opportunities; (iii) nutrition improvement, particu- islands. larly in the outer islands, by changing people’s diet From the countrywide macro perspective, and eating habits; (iv) further development of the there are factors that can affect poverty both in fisheries sector, a major industry, employer, and direct and indirect ways. The smallness of the exporter; and (v) decentralized decision-making economy and its vulnerability to external shocks system and capacity building to meet the develop- have major implications not only for the country’s ment needs of outer island populations and facili- macroeconomic performance, but also for the tate their development planning and management. people’s quality of life, as the economy relies on This strategy should be complemented by the earnings from export items and on imports for the following policy initiatives, which would have an necessities. The increasing reliance on foreign indirect but significant effect on poverty reduction workers can be a constraint to employment of in the country: (i) prudent macroeconomic policy Maldivians and put pressure on foreign exchange and a proactive industrial policy for diversified reserves because of the outward flow of their for- industrial structure to reduce the country’s VIII POVERTY REDUCTION IN THE MALDIVES: ISSUES, FINDINGS, AND APPROACHES vulnerability to external shocks; (ii) fiscal consoli- cused on Malé, mainly for the improvement of dation to ensure macroeconomic stability and to power supply and port facilities. ADB assistance en- allow more room for strategic budgetary allocation abled a reliable electricity supply and significantly targeting the poor; (iii) higher and sustainable eco- improved port operations in Malé. ADB assistance nomic growth led by the private sector in tandem has also supported human development and insti- with an enabling legal and institutional environment tutional capacity building in these two sectors, as for increased private sector activities, supported by the shortage of technical experts in engineering, fi- the development of the financial sector aiming at nance, accounting, planning, and management has domestic resource mobilization; (iv) capacity build- been a key constraint. Thus past ADB assistance has ing of the public sector institutions for improved contributed to the development on Malé, but not public sector management; and (v) environmental to that of the atolls. management through institutional capacity build- ADB’s future strategy for poverty reduction in ing in monitoring and enforcing environmental the Maldives should be the one with maximum rules and regulations and taking appropriate miti- contribution to addressing the key poverty con- gating measures for environmental protection. cerns. At the same time, the strategy should focus ADB’s current Country Operational Strategy on ADB’s core competence areas where ADB has for the Maldives was prepared in 1995 when mac- comparative advantages to maximize the poverty re- roeconomic instability, geographic disparities, en- duction impact of its assistance. The areas would vironmental vulnerability, and skill shortages were include (i) outer island development, (ii) human the major concerns. Accordingly, the operational resource development, and (iii) capacity building priorities included (i) improvement of fiscal man- and decentralization. The assistance to core areas agement, (ii) promotion of outer-island develop- should be supported by measures to promote sus- ment together with improvement of quality of and tainable economic growth through development of access to education, and (iii) protection of environ- the private sector and the financial sector. ment. ADB assistance in the past were largely fo- INTRODUCTION 1
I. INTRODUCTION
he purpose of this poverty analysis is to poverty. It contains the findings of a 4-week mis- provide an assessment of the poverty sion, during which several inhabited islands were Tsituation in the Maldives and an initial pov- visited and consultations were undertaken in Gaaf erty reduction strategy for the country for discus- Dhaal atoll including Nadalla (ranked in the VPA as sion. This report serves as a background study for the most vulnerable of all the 201 inhabited islands Asian Development Bank's (ADB) country strategy in the country), Fares (4th most vulnerable), for the Maldives. It is also a contribution to the Vadhoo (10th), Maathodaa (77th), Rathaafandhoo Sixth National Development Plan (2001-2005), (90th), Fyoari (20-50% vulnerability class), and which the Government has recently finalized. This the atoll capital of Thinadhoo (in the least vulner- report focuses on particular problems of poverty able 40%). and proposes a strategy to address them to the Gov- The High-Level Forum on Poverty Reduction ernment and the aid community. and Country Strategy (HLF), organized by the The poverty analysis comprises three parts: Government of Maldives and ADB, was held in Malé (i) a poverty profile highlighting the manifestations on 21 May 2001. The HLF discussed with all stake- and causes of poverty; (ii) responses to poverty to holders the manifestations and causes of poverty date; and (iii) recommendations for a poverty re- and vulnerability in the Maldives and ADB's future duction strategy. The key economic and social in- strategy for poverty reduction for the country, based dicators are in Appendix 1. The report does not on the draft of this report. A summary of discus- reiterate the detailed poverty assessments available sions at the HLF is in Appendix 2. This report has in the Vulnerability and Poverty Assessment (VPA), been further improved reflecting the discussions at 1998; rather, it focuses on selected key aspects of the HLF.
II. POVERTY PROFILE
Manifestations of Poverty lated to remoteness of the islands and lack of ser- vices in the atolls.1 In addition to income, the Definition of Poverty in the Maldives concept of poverty includes other socioeconomic aspects such as access to electricity, transport, com- The word "poverty" does not occur in Dhivehi, munications, education, health, potable drinking the Maldivian language, with the same connotations water, recreation facilities and selected consumer as in English. In fact very few Maldivians are des- goods, the quality of housing and the natural en- titute—fewer than elsewhere in South Asia, or in- vironment, and the incidence of food security and deed in many developed countries. However, the malnutrition. Government fully recognizes that households and communities, as well as the country itself, are dis- Vulnerability of the Economy advantaged by their vulnerability to adverse exter- nal impacts. Poverty in the Maldives context differs The Maldives has a long tradition of being from that of many other countries. In the Maldives, an open economy, and, combined with its poverty alleviation primarily means the reduction 1 “Atolls” and “outer islands” are used in this report to identify of regional disparities in living conditions, since those parts of the country other than Malé; and “region” to poverty problems in the country are primarily re- indicate a grouping of atolls. 2 POVERTY REDUCTION IN THE MALDIVES: ISSUES, FINDINGS, AND APPROACHES fundamental reliance on the two export-dependent 1995 to 2000. GDP increased at an average of 7.9% sectors of tourism and fisheries, it continues to be per year during this period, while the core tourism highly vulnerable to external shocks. The country sector, at 7.3% per year, increased at a similar rate. suffered from severe macroeconomic imbalances The sectors that grew rapidly were electricity and with large fiscal deficits and strong pressure on its water supply at 21.7% per year and transport at balance-of-payments position in the early 1990s, 15.7% per year. There was slow growth in the la- which was largely attributable to the sharp decline bor-intensive fisheries and agriculture sectors; and in tourist arrivals due to the recession in the Euro- also below average growth in most of the other ser- pean economy and the Gulf War, and to reduced vices subsectors. In terms of contribution to GDP, world tuna prices. In 1994, the Government imple- the largest changes are the decline in the fisheries mented a successful economic stabilization program sector and the increase in the transport and com- that reversed declining growth rates and achieved a munication sector associated with the growth in the 50% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) from tourism sector and the recent expansion of infor- 1995 to 2000. mation and telecommunications services. The table below provides data on the chang- ing sectoral growth and composition of GDP from
Table: Changes in Gross Domestic Product by Sectoral Origin (%)
1995 2000 1995-2000 1995-2000 Contribution Contribution Annual Rate % points change to GDP to GDP of Change in Contribution
Gross Domestic Product 100.0 100.0 7.9 – Primary Sector 12.1 9.4 2.6 (2.7) Agriculture 3.6 2.8 2.5 (0.8) Fisheries 7.8 6.1 5.7 (1.7) Coral and Sand Mining 0.7 0.6 3.4 (0.1) Secondary Sector 13.2 14.5 10.3 1.3 Manufacturing 8.2 8.5 8.9 0.3 Electricity and Water Supply 1.8 3.3 21.7 1.5 Construction 3.1 2.7 6.8 (0.4) Tertiary Sector 78.8 82.0 8.8 3.2 Wholesale and Retail Trade 5.5 4.5 4.0 (1.0) Tourism 34.4 33.47.3 (1.0) Transport and Communications 11.1 15.7 15.7 4.6 Financial Services 3.5 3.47.0 (0.1) Real Estate 9.1 7.8 4.7 (1.3) Business Services 3.0 2.9 7.0 (0.1) Government Administration 9.3 12.0 13.5 2.7 Social Services 2.9 2.2 2.0 (0.7) Financial Services Indirectly Measured (4.1) (5.9) – –
Source: Ministry of Planning and National Development, 2001. II. POVERTY PROFILE 3
Between 1987 and 1999 tourist arrivals in- development. Graduation from LDC status would creased by more than 300%. In recent years, tour- lead to a decline in grant and concessional external ism has accounted directly for one third of GDP assistance to the country, loss of garment quotas in and employment. Around 30% of government tax the United States (US), and adverse impact on the revenues and 70% of total foreign exchange earn- fisheries industry with the loss of the 24% tariff ings come from the sector. It is estimated, however, concession for tuna in the European Union (EU). that about a third of the gross foreign exchange The vulnerability of the economy to exter- earnings from tourism will outflow from the coun- nal shocks is a potential threat not only to eco- try as payments for consumption imports for re- nomic performance at the macro level, but also to sorts, foreign equity and debt services, and the people whose livelihoods are dependent on remittances by foreign workers. At the end of 1999, imports for oil and other necessities and on the the tourism sector employed 12,500 Maldivian and particular sectors, especially fishermen living in 10,618 foreign workers. atolls who are disadvantaged in various ways, The contribution of the fisheries sector to the including income and access to social services, greatly increased GDP declined from about 16% in compared to Malé residents. 1987 to 5.7% in 2000, although it is understood that this incorporates only fishing catch values and Population not postprocessing values, the added values of which are classified under manufacturing, which In recent decades the Maldives has had a high increased by 10% per annum—more quickly than population growth rate, with a doubling of popu- tourism. The fisheries sector is overwhelmingly lation between 1971 and 1991. This has been "manned" by Maldivian fishermen living in the outer regarded as a major constraint to the quality of life islands. It still employs more than twice as many for women and children in particular, to the extent Maldivian workers as does tourism; and 18% of that it was identified as the first priority in the the total labor force are engaged in primary fishing Government's Fifth National Development Plan activities alone, making it the second largest (FNDP, 1997–2000). A recent achievement there- Maldivian employment category after government. fore is the remarkable reduction in the rate of popu- The VPA's analysis on the distribution of sectoral lation growth reported in the preliminary results of employment indicates that 98% of employment in the March 2000 Census from 3.4% during 1985– the fisheries sector is found in the atolls, where it 1990 to 1.9% during 1995–2000. This significant is the biggest employer. reduction in the population growth rate is largely The Government's taxation base is narrow and attributable to the Government's efforts in promot- taxes from imports and tourism alone supply 48% ing public awareness, and making contraceptives of government revenue. Nontax revenues, prima- available. rily from resort leases and profits of state-owned enterprises and joint ventures, contribute a further Personal Incomes 43% of government revenue. Thus the Government's revenue stream is also highly vul- Despite the country's high per capita income nerable to external factors. The only direct tax is on at aggregated level, income poverty still exists. In the net profits of commercial banks; there are no the VPA, the median of Rf15 ($1.17) was adopted income, property, or value-added taxes. as a maximum poverty line, and half of this, Rf7.5 Grants, concessionary loans, and overseas ($0.59), as a low poverty line; an intermediate pov- fish and garment markets are under threat from the erty line of Rf10 ($0.78) was also used in the analy- possible graduation of the Maldives from least de- sis. Around 43% of the population, including 20% veloped country (LDC) status. While this is on hold of those on Malé, were below the Rf15 per day line at present, it may not be possible to retain LDC and 22%, including 10% of those in Malé, were status indefinitely given the pace of economic below the Rf10 per day line. 4 POVERTY REDUCTION IN THE MALDIVES: ISSUES, FINDINGS, AND APPROACHES
The Government's position on poverty is that Human and Social Indicators income poverty exists everywhere in the country, even when applying the lowest poverty line of Rf7.5 The Human Development Index for the per person per day. Poor households are found on Maldives for 1998 from Human Development Re- all the atolls and on Malé, not only on poor islands port 2000, United Nations Development Programme but on rich islands as well. The absolute number (UNDP) was 0.725, which was higher than for all of the income poor per island is estimated by other South Asian countries except Sri Lanka. The multiplying the head count ratio by the island Maldives was ranked 89th of 174 countries. While population size. Adding these absolute numbers this indicates commendable development of the over the islands, the total number of income poor country over the past decades, the index only rep- in the country is estimated at about 30,000 or 15% resents an aggregated picture of the country, and of the population under the lowest poverty line.2 attention should be paid to micro level social and The VPA estimated the mean per capita in- human development to see the real situation of come as Rf24 ($1.88) per day and concluded that poverty and vulnerability. this estimate was consistent with national accounts data and the 1993 Household Income and Expendi- Geographic Disparities ture Survey. In terms of trends in household incomes 43% Population of VPA respondents reported an increase over the preceding 5 years, 42% no change, and 14% a The recent reduced rate of population growth decrease. There was apparently little relationship be- is geographically differentiated and is in fact con- tween current wealth and the change in income, i.e., fined to the atolls, where it fell from 2.8% per year poor households were as likely to declare income in 1990–1995 to 1.3% per year in 1995–2000. By increases as rich ones. contrast, in Malé it increased sharply from 2.5% to For Malé alone, the 1993 Survey found that, 3.5% per year during the same period. Three atolls while expenditure apparently exceeded income for lost population during the 5 years because of out- the poorest 20% of households, expenditure on migration. These demographic trends are happen- food, beverages and tobacco accounted for 66% of ing so rapidly that this switch to a negative position the expenditure of the lowest decile, which is not might become the norm in the future for almost all an extremely high figure by international standards, atolls. and for 34% overall. This suggests that income pov- Figure 1 indicates the dramatic and ongoing erty was not widespread in Malé. The incomes of changes in population distribution. While the rate the richest 10% of households were 31 times those of increase in the atolls has declined since 1990, in of the poorest in 1993, which was a significant re- Malé it fell between 1990 and 1995 due to the duction from 1981. The Lorenz ratio was 0.492 in economic crisis in the early 1990s, but it subse- 1993. quently strengthened. While the absolute increase in atoll population was more than three times that in Malé from 1990 to 1995, the two have been almost equivalent between 1995 and 2000. In- creases in population in Malé would be greater when foreign labor is included. There are currently more additional people in Malé each year than in the 2 The VPA defines household income as household consumption whole of the rest of the country. In the 5 years to expenditures in cash plus the imputed value of own produced consumer goods minus housing rent paid. The value of housing 2005, many more islands and atolls can be expected is omitted because of the different situations between housing to experience absolute population loss. markets in Malé and the other islands. This omits an important budget item for many people living in Malé or aspiring to move Using national growth rates, the estimated net there, and understates incomes in Malé. migration from the atolls between 1977 and 2000 II. POVERTY PROFILE 5
Figure 1: Population Changes in Malé and the Atolls (mean annual changes within 5-year periods)
6,000 4.0
3.5