The Reliability of Quarterly National Accounts in Seven Major Countries: a User's Perspective
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Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries
Estimating the e®ects of ¯scal policy in OECD countries Roberto Perotti¤ This version: November 2004 Abstract This paper studies the e®ects of ¯scal policy on GDP, in°ation and interest rates in 5 OECD countries, using a structural Vector Autoregression approach. Its main results can be summarized as follows: 1) The e®ects of ¯scal policy on GDP tend to be small: government spending multipliers larger than 1 can be estimated only in the US in the pre-1980 period. 2) There is no evidence that tax cuts work faster or more e®ectively than spending increases. 3) The e®ects of government spending shocks and tax cuts on GDP and its components have become substantially weaker over time; in the post-1980 period these e®ects are mostly negative, particularly on private investment. 4) Only in the post-1980 period is there evidence of positive e®ects of government spending on long interest rates. In fact, when the real interest rate is held constant in the impulse responses, much of the decline in the response of GDP in the post-1980 period in the US and UK disappears. 5) Under plausible values of its price elasticity, government spending typically has small e®ects on in°ation. 6) Both the decline in the variance of the ¯scal shocks and the change in their transmission mechanism contribute to the decline in the variance of GDP after 1980. ¤IGIER - Universitµa Bocconi and Centre for Economic Policy Research. I thank Alberto Alesina, Olivier Blanchard, Fabio Canova, Zvi Eckstein, Jon Faust, Carlo Favero, Jordi Gal¶³, Daniel Gros, Bruce Hansen, Fumio Hayashi, Ilian Mihov, Chris Sims, Jim Stock and Mark Watson for helpful comments and suggestions. -
Calculating the Output Gap
ECONOMIC AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS Appendix 2 Calculating the output gap The output gap is an important concept in the preparation of inflation forecasts and assessments of the economic outlook. However, the output gap is difficult to measure and subject to great uncertainty in practice. The techniques used by the Central Bank of Iceland and elsewhere to calculate the output gap, which have previously been described in Monetary Bulletin (2000/4 pp. 14-15), will be recapitulated here taking particular account of investments in the aluminium and power sectors, since these have a substantial impact on both the level of production and output potential in the economy, not only during the construction phase but also when the investments 1 have been completed. 2005•1 MONETARY BULLETIN Definition of the output gap The output gap is defined as the difference between actual and potential GDP as a per cent of potential GDP, i.e.: (1) P where GAPt is the output gap, Yt is GDP in real terms and Y t is the potential output of the economy, all during the year t. Potential output is defined as the level of GDP that is consistent with full utilisation of all factors of production under conditions of stable inflation. Thus potential output is determined on the supply side of the economy, i.e. by capital stock, labour use and available technology. Potential output in the long term is determined by how effici- ently the available factors of production can be utilised for a given level of productivity. In the short run, however, aggregate demand can drive the level of production beyond long-term potential output. -
Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules
SVERIGES RIKSBANK WORKING PAPER SERIES 260 Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules Roberto M. Billi MARCH 2012 WORKING PAPERS ARE OBTAINABLE FROM Sveriges Riksbank • Information Riksbank • SE-103 37 Stockholm Fax international: +46 8 787 05 26 Telephone international: +46 8 787 01 00 E-mail: [email protected] The Working Paper series presents reports on matters in the sphere of activities of the Riksbank that are considered to be of interest to a wider public. The papers are to be regarded as reports on ongoing studies and the authors will be pleased to receive comments. The views expressed in Working Papers are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not to be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Executive Board of Sveriges Riksbank. Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules Roberto M. Billiy Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series No. 260 March 2012 Abstract Policymakers often use the output gap, a noisy signal of economic activity, as a guide for setting monetary policy. Noise in the data argues for policy caution. At the same time, the zero bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central bank’sability to stimulate the economy during downturns. In such an environment, greater policy stimulus may be needed to stabilize the economy. Thus, noisy data and the zero bound present policymakers with a dilemma in deciding the appropriate stance for monetary policy. I investigate this dilemma in a small New Keynesian model, and show that policymakers should pay more attention to output gaps than suggested by previous research. Keywords: output gap, measurement errors, monetary policy, zero lower bound JEL: E52, E58 I thank Tor Jacobson, Per Jansson, Ulf Söderström, David Vestin, Karl Walentin, and seminar participants at Sveriges Riksbank for helpful comments and discussions. -
Mind the Output Gap: the Disconnect of Growth and Inflation During Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area
Working Paper Series Marco Gross, Willi Semmler Mind the output gap: the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area Task force on low inflation (LIFT) No 2004 / January 2017 Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. Task force on low inflation (LIFT) This paper presents research conducted within the Task Force on Low Inflation (LIFT). The task force is composed of economists from the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) - i.e. the 29 national central banks of the European Union (EU) and the European Central Bank. The objective of the expert team is to study issues raised by persistently low inflation from both empirical and theoretical modelling perspectives. The research is carried out in three workstreams: 1) Drivers of Low Inflation; 2) Inflation Expectations; 3) Macroeconomic Effects of Low Inflation. LIFT is chaired by Matteo Ciccarelli and Chiara Osbat (ECB). Workstream 1 is headed by Elena Bobeica and Marek Jarocinski (ECB) ; workstream 2 by Catherine Jardet (Banque de France) and Arnoud Stevens (National Bank of Belgium); workstream 3 by Caterina Mendicino (ECB), Sergio Santoro (Banca d’Italia) and Alessandro Notarpietro (Banca d’Italia). The selection and refereeing process for this paper was carried out by the Chairs of the Task Force. Papers were selected based on their quality and on the relevance of the research subject to the aim of the Task Force. The authors of the selected papers were invited to revise their paper to take into consideration feedback received during the preparatory work and the referee’s and Editors’ comments. -
The National Accounts, GDP and the 'Growthmen'
The National Accounts, GDP and the ‘Growthmen’ Geoff Tily January 2015 The National Accounts, GDP and the ‘Growthmen’ A review essay of Diane Coyle GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History, 2013 By Geoff Tily Reading GDP: A Brief But Affectionate History by Diane Coyle (2013) led to the question –when and how did GDP growth become the central focus of policymaking? Younger readers may be more surprised by the answers than older ones, with the details not commonplace in conventional histories of post-war policy. 2 Abstract It is apt to start with Keynes, who played a far greater role in the creation and construction of National Accounts than is usually recognised, doing so in part to aid his own theoretical and practical initiatives. These were not concerned with growth, but with raising the level of activity and employment. The accounts were one of several means to this end. Coyle rightly bemoans real GDP growth as the end of policy, but that was not the original intention. Moreover Coyle adheres to a theoretical view where outcomes can only improve through gains in productivity, i.e. growth in output per unit of whatever input, which seems inseparable from GDP growth. The analysis also touches on the implications for theory and policy doctrine in practice. Most obviously Keynes’s approach was rejected on the ground of practical application. The emphasis on growth and an associated supply- orientation for policy seemingly became embedded through the OECD formally from 1961 and then in the UK via the National Economic Development Corporation of the 1960s (the relationships between these initiatives are of great interest but far from clear). -
Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: the Ac Se of Kenya Angelica E
University of Connecticut OpenCommons@UConn Economics Working Papers Department of Economics October 2005 Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The aC se of Kenya Angelica E. Njuguna Kenyatta University and KIPPRA Stephen N. Karingi United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Mwangi S. Kimenyi University of Connecticut Follow this and additional works at: https://opencommons.uconn.edu/econ_wpapers Recommended Citation Njuguna, Angelica E.; Karingi, Stephen N.; and Kimenyi, Mwangi S., "Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The asC e of Kenya" (2005). Economics Working Papers. 200545. https://opencommons.uconn.edu/econ_wpapers/200545 Department of Economics Working Paper Series Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeco- nomic Policy: The Case of Kenya Angelica E. Njuguna Kenyatta University and KIPPRA Stephen N. Karingi United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Mwangi S. Kimenyi University of Connecticut Working Paper 2005-45 October 2005 341 Mansfield Road, Unit 1063 Storrs, CT 06269–1063 Phone: (860) 486–3022 Fax: (860) 486–4463 http://www.econ.uconn.edu/ This working paper is indexed on RePEc, http://repec.org/ Abstract Measuring the level of an economy.s potential output and output gap are essen- tial in identifying a sustainable non-inflationary growth and assessing appropriate macroeconomic policies. The estimation of potential output helps to determine the pace of sustainable growth while output gap estimates provide a key bench- mark against which to assess inflationary or disinflationary pressures suggesting when to tighten or ease monetary policies. These measures also help to provide a gauge in the determining the structural fiscal position of the government. -
Working Paper No. 563 Whither New Consensus Macroeconomics? the Role of Government and Fiscal Policy in Modern Macroeconomics
Working Paper No. 563 Whither New Consensus Macroeconomics? The Role of Government and Fiscal Policy in Modern Macroeconomics by Giuseppe Fontana* May 2009 * University of Leeds (UK) and Università del Sannio (Benevento, Italy). Correspondence address: Economics, LUBS, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. E-mail: [email protected]; tel.: +44 (0) 113 343 4503; fax: +44 (0) 113 343 4465. The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals. The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic research it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad. The Levy Economics Institute P.O. Box 5000 Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000 http://www.levy.org Copyright © The Levy Economics Institute 2009 All rights reserved. ABSTRACT In the face of the dramatic economic events of recent months and the inability of academics and policymakers to prevent them, the New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM) model has been the subject of several criticisms. This paper considers one of the main criticisms lodged against the NCM model, namely, the absence of any essential role for the government and fiscal policy. Given the size of the public sector and the increasing role of fiscal policy in modern economies, this simplifying assumption of the NCM model is difficult to defend. -
Deflation: Economic Significance, Current Risk, and Policy Responses
Deflation: Economic Significance, Current Risk, and Policy Responses Craig K. Elwell Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy August 30, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R40512 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Deflation: Economic Significance, Current Risk, and Policy Responses Summary Despite the severity of the recent financial crisis and recession, the U.S. economy has so far avoided falling into a deflationary spiral. Since mid-2009, the economy has been on a path of economic recovery. However, the pace of economic growth during the recovery has been relatively slow, and major economic weaknesses persist. In this economic environment, the risk of deflation remains significant and could delay sustained economic recovery. Deflation is a persistent decline in the overall level of prices. It is not unusual for prices to fall in a particular sector because of rising productivity, falling costs, or weak demand relative to the wider economy. In contrast, deflation occurs when price declines are so widespread and sustained that they cause a broad-based price index, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), to decline for several quarters. Such a continuous decline in the price level is more troublesome, because in a weak or contracting economy it can lead to a damaging self-reinforcing downward spiral of prices and economic activity. However, there are also examples of relatively benign deflations when economic activity expanded despite a falling price level. For instance, from 1880 through 1896, the U.S. price level fell about 30%, but this coincided with a period of strong economic growth. -
Editors' Summary of the Brookings Papers On
1017-00a Editors Sum 12/30/02 14:45 Page ix Editors’ Summary The brookings panel ON Economic Activity held its seventy-fourth conference in Washington, D.C., on September 5 and 6, 2002. This issue of Brookings Papers on Economic Activity includes the papers and dis- cussions presented at the conference. The first paper reviews the process and methods of inflation and output forecasting at four central banks and proposes strategies for improving the usefulness of their formal economic models for policymaking. The second paper analyzes the implications for monetary policymaking of uncertainty about the levels of the natural rates of unemployment and interest. The third paper examines reasons for the recent rise in current account deficits in the lower-income countries of Europe and the role of economic integration in breaking the link between domestic saving and domestic investment. The fourth paper applies a new decomposition of productivity growth to a new database of income-side output to examine the recent speedup in U.S. productivity growth and the contribution made by new economy industries. Despite a growing transparency in the conduct of monetary policy at many central banks, little is still known publicly about the actual process of central bank decisionmaking. In the first paper of this issue, Christopher Sims examines this process, drawing on interviews with staff and policy committee members from the Swedish Riksbank, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the U.S. Federal Reserve. Central bank policy actions are inevitably based on forecasts of inflation and output. Sims’ interviews focused on how those forecasts are made, how uncer- tainty is dealt with, and what role formal economic models play in the process. -
Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian Vars
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Berg, Tim Oliver; Henzel, Steffen Working Paper Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs CESifo Working Paper, No. 4711 Provided in Cooperation with: Ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich Suggested Citation: Berg, Tim Oliver; Henzel, Steffen (2014) : Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs, CESifo Working Paper, No. 4711, Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/96866 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs Tim O. -
Macroeconomic Accounts
VWL II – Makroökonomie WS2001/02 Dr. Ana B. Ania Macroeconomic Accounts The system of national accounts Macroeconomic accounting deals with aggregates and accounting identities, that is with macroeco- nomic magnitudes and how they relate to each other by definition. Macroeconomic accounting does not explain how each magnitude changes as a result of a change in other magnitudes. This will be the task of macroeconomic analysis, that we will look at in the next units of the course. In this first unit, we just deal with definitions. All that we say will therefore always hold by definition. The purpose of the system of national accounts is to keep record of the transactions that take place in any economy for the purpose of measuring productive activity and income generated in the economy. Since 1998 all countries should conform the new system of national accounts of the UN—System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA93). Additionally, the Eurostat (Central Statistical Agency of the EU) has produced a standard for members of the EU in accordance with SNA93 called the European System of Accounts 1995 (ESA95). The exposition here will be in accordance with these new systems. Institutional units In the view of the system of national accounts an economy is a system of decision-making units that interact with each other and perform economic transactions. The basic decision-making unit is called an institutional unit, which is any entity capable of owning assets, incurring liabilities, engaging in economic activities and transactions. Institutional units are either households or legal persons like cor- porations, governmental agencies, associations. -
A Guide to Deflating the Input-Output Accounts: Sources and Methods
Catalogue no. 15F0077GIE System of National Accounts A Guide to Deflating the Input-Output Accounts: Sources and methods 2001 A Guide to Deflating the Input–Output Accounts: Sources and Methods A Guide to Deflating the Input–Output Accounts Sources and Methods Data in many forms Statistics Canada disseminates data in a variety of forms. In addition to publications, both standard and special tabulations are offered. Data are available on the Internet, compact disc, diskette, computer printouts, microfiche and microfilm, and magnetic tape. Maps and other geographic reference materials are available for some types of data. Direct online access to aggregated information is possible through CANSIM, Statistics Canada’s machine-readable database and retrieval system. How to obtain more information Inquiries about this free product should be directed to: Industry Measures and Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0T6 (telephone: (613) 951-9417), e-mail: [email protected] (or to the Statistics Canada Regional Reference Centre in: Halifax (902) 426-5331 Regina (306) 780-5405 Montréal (514) 283-5725 Edmonton (403) 495-3027 Ottawa (613) 951-8116 Calgary (403) 292-6717 Toronto (416) 973-6586 Vancouver (604) 666-3691 Winnipeg (204) 983-4020 You can also visit our World Wide Web site: http://www.statcan.ca Toll-free access is provided for all users who reside outside the local dialing area of any of the Regional Reference Centres. National enquiries line 1 800 263-1136 National telecommunications device for the hearing impaired 1 800 363-7629 Order-only line (Canada and United States) 1 800 267-6677 Standards of service to the public Statistics Canada is committed to serving its clients in a prompt, reliable and courteous manner and in the official language of their choice.