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2018 U.S. State Elections Roundup Introduction Welcome to Mcguirewoods Consulting’S 2018 U.S

2018 U.S. State Elections Roundup Introduction Welcome to Mcguirewoods Consulting’S 2018 U.S

2018 U.S. State Elections Roundup Introduction Welcome to McGuireWoods Consulting’s 2018 U.S. State Elections Roundup interactive website -- your one-stop resource for this year’s gubernatorial, attorneys general, and state legislature races.

Complete with concise information about how state elections are shaping up around the country -- including snapshots of primary results and hot-button ballot initiatives -- our site provides a landscape view of our nation’s political scene and insights on potential shifts in the tide.

Our goal is to provide business leaders and constituents quick, reliable access to comprehensive information about this year’s elections. Based on a compilation of public polling and forecasting data collected and analyzed by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Cook Political Report, and Governing, information provided on our site will be updated as appropriate.

I hope you find our site helpful, and please let us know if you have any questions about our country’s most anticipated state elections.

Gov. James Hodges President +1 803 251 2301 Email

McGuireWoods Consulting | 2 Why are the 2018 elections important?

During midterm elections, state races often take a backseat to the races in the U.S. Congress. But for 2018, the electoral battles in the states are critical because there is much at stake: Whichever party ends up controlling the governorships and state legislatures in key states after the election will have substantial influence over the congressional redistricting process after the next census.

How district maps are drawn will have an impact on state and congressional races in the next 10 years. New maps could increase the number of seats in Congress for one party or the other, effectively giving one party an advantage in securing majorities in state legislatures and the U.S. House of Representatives.

Control of governorships and state legislatures will also have an impact on policymaking, as a growing number of states are taking the initiative to legislate on issues that the federal government have yet to address. For example, since the start of the Trump Administration, we have witnessed elected leaders in blue states playing a significant and prominent role to fight federal policies that they view as adverse to the interests of their constituents. Democratic state attorneys general have mounted a firewall against President Trump’s policies on issues like immigration and energy development, launching a number of lawsuits to oppose controversial administration policies.

Such resistance isn’t new: During the Obama Administration, Republican state attorneys general challenged executive actions and policies in much the same way.

Amidst all the predictions and possibility for upsets, one thing remains certain – this year’s state elections are among the most widely anticipated in many years because of their potential to create shifts in in the political landscape of our country that extend far beyond state lines.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 3 Table of Contents Click on any state in the following maps to jump to that state’s analysis • Overview of Gubernatorial Races • Overview of Attorneys General Races • Overview of State Legislatures - House • Overview of State Legislatures - Senate • State-by-State Analysis

The information in this presentation is based on the latest publicly available data and is subject to change. Last updated November 1, 2018.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 4 Gubernatorial Race Projections : 36 seats at stake No election Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Lean Democratic Tossup Safe Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican

MA RI CT

Source: Governing and other public polling data

McGuireWoods Consulting | 5 Attorneys General Race Projections Attorneys General: 30 seats at stake No election Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Lean Democratic Tossup Safe Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican

MA RI CT

Source: Governing and other public polling data

McGuireWoods Consulting | 6 State Legislatures: House Chambers House: 45 chambers at stake No election Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Lean Democratic Tossup Safe Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican

MA RI CT

Source: Governing and other public polling data

McGuireWoods Consulting | 7 State Legislatures: Senate Chambers Senate: 43 chambers at stake No election Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Lean Democratic Tossup Safe Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican Special Election

MA RI CT

Source: Governing and other public polling data

McGuireWoods Consulting | 8 Alabama

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Projected Safe R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 27-7 R Joseph Siegelman Walt Maddox

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Safe R Steve Marshall Current 70-33 R

• Alabama’s Republican primary Primary Results The nomination of Roy Moore in runoff election took place on July a losing bid for the U.S. Senate 17th. Incumbent Steve Marshall Walt Maddox (Mayor of Tuscaloosa): will unlikely pave the way for a (R) is seeking reelection and is the 54.6%; 154,559 votes Democratic wave. Republican nominee after winning Gov. Kay Ivey (Incumbent): 56.1%; July’s closely contested runoff. The 330,743 votes Democratic candidate is attorney Joseph Siegelman. • Alabama’s primary elections were held on June 5th. Incumbent • This race is projected as a safe Governor Kay Ivey is seeking Republican victory. reelection and is the heavy favorite. Her Democratic challenger is Mayor of Tuscaloosa Walt Maddox. • The governorship is expected to remain in Republican possession.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 9 Alaska

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Safe R Current Attorney General Democratic Nominee Current 14-6 R Jahna Lindemuth Mark Begich

House Appointed by Governor. Republican Nominee Projected Tossup Mike Dunleavy Current 22-18 D

Primary Results • With Alaska’s Senate safely in Republican hands, the Democrats Mark Begich (Former U.S. Sen., look to maintain control of the representing AK): Uncontested House. Mike Dunleavy (Former AK State Sen.): 61%; 38,840 votes • The State House is currently • Gov. Bill Walker, suspended his governed by a narrow, Democratic- reelection bid on Oct. 19 due to led coalition. the reignation of his lieutenant governor, Byron Mallott. Walker • If oil prices stay relatively high, as has endorsed Democratic nominee they are now, voters may be less Mark Begich. likely to shift the House. • Based on the most recent polling, this race leans Republican.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 10 Arizona

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Lean R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 17-13 R January Contreras David Garcia

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Likely R Current 35-25 R

Primary Results • Democrats are three seats away • Arizona’s primary elections were held on August 28th. from flipping the Arizona Senate – David Garcia (Associate Professor at ASU): to do so would require unseating • Incumbent Mark Brnovich (R) is seeking a second term. His 50.45%; 250,955 votes some battle-tested Republican Doug Ducey 70.72%; 457,926 votes lawmakers. Democratic challenger is former Assistant Attorney General January Contreras. • Arizona’s primary elections were held • Democrats may be successful on August 28th. on issues such as education and • This election will come down to whether an energized Democratic • Democrats may favor from Gov. Ducey’s teacher pay, resonant with AZ low favorability ratings, and on reports voters. and Latino vote can deliver the office to Contreras, or whether of President Trump’s lack of popularity Brnovich has demonstrated enough amongst Arizonan voters. independence to win a degree • This race is projected as likely of crossover voters. This race is Republican. projected to lean Republican.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 11

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Projected Safe R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 23-9 R Mike Lee Jared Henderson

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Safe R Current 75-24 R

Primary Results Democrats might be able to take few • Incumbent Leslie Rutledge (R) is extra seats; the GOP’s majorities are seeking reelection. Jared Henderson (Former Teach for America big enough to remain secure. • Rutledge’s Democratic challenger is law school professor, Mike Lee. State Director): 63.4%; 68,340 votes • Democrats are expected to focus Gov. Asa Hutchinson (Incumbent): 69.7%; more on competitive congressional 145,251 votes races. • Arkansas’s primary elections were held on • This race is projected as a safe May 22nd. Republican victory. • Incumbent Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) is seeking reelection and is the heavy favorite. • The governorship is projected as safe Republican. • The governorship is expected to remain in Republican possession.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 12 California

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Projected Safe D Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 26-13 D Xavier Becerra

Assembly Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Safe D Steve Bailey John Cox Current 52-25 D

Primary Results Democrats possess lopsided control • California’s primary elections were of both chambers in California, and held on June 5th. Gavin Newsom (Lt. Gov. of CA): 33.8%; may be able to expand their margins • Incumbent Xavier Becerra (D) will 1,613,120 slightly due to President Trump’s face off against GOP challenger John Cox (Businessman): 26.2%; unpopularity in the state. retired judge Steven Bailey. • Under California’s primary system, 1,249,248 votes the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the • California’s primary election was general election. held on June 5th. • Becerra received 45% of the vote, • Due to term limits, incumbent and Bailey finished second with Governor Jerry Brown (D) is 25%. ineligible to run for reelection. • This race is projected as a safe • The governorship is projected to Democratic victory. remain in Democratic possession.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 13

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Projected Tossup Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 18-6 R

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Likely D George Brauchler Walker Stapleton Current 36-29 D

Primary Results • The Democrats have high hopes • Attorney General Cynthia Coffman of flipping the GOP-controlled (R) is not seeking reelection. Jared Polis (U.S. Rep. for CO): 44.4%; . • On June 26, Colorado held primary elections to determine 279,006 votes Walker Stapleton (CO State • If the open-seat gubernatorial the Democratic candidate, and Treasurer): 47.7%; 235,478 votes race turns in the Democrats’ favor, University of Colorado Law Democrats could succeed. Professor Phil Weiser beat Joseph Salazar, a state representative. • Incumbent Gov. • Colorado is a neutral political (D) is ineligible for reelection due to environment, so a potential blue term limitations. wave could be counteracted by a • Rep. Jared Polis (D) is expected to strong Republican candidate. benefit from Gov. Hickenlooper’s • This race is projected to be a toss- favorability. up. • According to the Cook Political Report, this race leans Democratic.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 14 Connecticut

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Projected Tossup Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 18-18

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Lean D Susan Hatfield Bob Stefanowski Current 79-71 D

Primary Results • There may be outside influences • Connecticut’s primary elections were that determine the outcome of held on August 14th. Ned Lamont (Businessman): 81.2%; these races. • Incumbent George Jepsen (D) is not 172,088 votes • If anti-Trump sentiment wins out, seeking reelection. Bob Stefanowski (Businessman): then Democrats can probably seize • Republicans will make an effort to tie 29.4%; 42,119 votes full control of the currently tied Democratic candidate William Tong, Senate. a current member of the CT House of • Two-term incumbent Governor • If voters are more preoccupied with Representatives, to the low approval Dan Malloy (D) is not seeking re- the low popularity ratings of Gov. numbers of Gov. Dan Malloy (D). election. Malloy, the GOP is still in the game • Democrats will try to tie Republican • This race is a toss-up. with the Senate. Candidate Susan Hatfield, a state prosecutor, to President Trump. • This race leans Democratic.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 15

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Lean D Democratic Nominee Current Governor Current 1-10 D (D)

House Republican Nominee The next election is 2020. Projected Safe D Bernard Pepukayi Current 25-16 D

• Governing projects that it is hard to • Incumbent Matt Denn (D) is not seeking imagine the blue state of Delaware reelection. losing Democratic seats in 2018. • Kathy Jennings is a former New Castle County Chief Administrative Officer; • However, out of an abundance of Bernard Pepukayi is a former New caution, narrowly divided state Castle County attorney. Senate is rated as competitive. • As a result of the highly contested primary this year, Democratic candidates have increasingly taken strong positions in order to appeal to the party’s base. • Delaware has not elected a Republican attorney general since 2005. • This race is projected as a likely Democratic victory.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 16 Florida

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Projected Lean R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 23-15 R Sean Shaw Andrew Gillum

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Likely R Ashley B. Moody Ron DeSantis Current 75-40 R

Primary Results • For the first time in 25 years, • Incumbent Pam Bondi (R) is term Democrats have a chance of limited and ineligible for reelection. Andrew Gillum (Mayor of Tallahassee): 34.3%; seizing control of a state legislative • Sean Shaw is a member of the FL 517,417 votes chamber, specifically the Senate. House of Representatives; Ashley Ron DeSantis (Former U.S. Rep. for FL): 56.5%; • The state House is far less Moody is a former judge in FL. 913,679 votes competitive for the Democrats. • Neither of the candidates have • That said, the higher-profile Florida statewide name recognition. • This race is projected a toss-up, with races on the ballot -- for governor • This race is projected to be a toss- national attention focused on the and U.S. senator -- could drain up. progressive Gillum’s primary victory. money and attention away from • Gillum has won the nomination in a state legislative races. historically less inclined to lean too far left of centrist. • DeSantis has been endorsed by President Trump.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 17 Georgia

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Projected Likely R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 37-19 R Charlie Bailey Stacey Abrams

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Likely R Chris Carr Current 116-64 R

Primary Results • A general election runoff is • Incumbent Chris Carr (R) is seeking scheduled for December 4, 2018. reelection. Stacey Abrams (Minority Leader, GA House of Reps.): 76.5%; • It’s reasonable to expect some • His Democratic challenger is 423,191 votes Democratic gains, especially in the former prosecutor Charlie Bailey. Brian Kemp (GA Secretary of State): *69%; 406,638 votes suburbs where there’s been • Bailey has secured the support of (*result of primary runoff) some Democratic growth. dozens of prominent Democratic • Incumbent Gov. Nathan Deal (R) is restricted by term • Still, the margins in Georgia are figures; conventional wisdom limitations and therefore ineligible to seek reelection. too wide for Democrats to be is that he faces an uphill battle • The Georgia gubernatorial contest is now a national race to optimistic about flipping either against a widely supported GOP watch, drawing scrutiny and concerns of voter supresssion. chamber in 2018. incumbent. • This race is currently projected as • A new NBC News/Marist poll in Georgia finds Kemp edging leans Republican. Abrams, 46% to 45%. If no candidate tops 50 percent in the November contest, the top two vote-getters will face off in a one-on-one runoff on Dec. 4. This race is a toss-up.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 18 Hawaii

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Safe D Current Attorney General Democratic Nominee Current 25-0 D Russell Suzuki (D)

House Republican Nominee Appointed by Governor. Projected Safe D Andria Tupola Current 45-5 D

Primary Results • During the Trump presidency, Republican numbers have sunk Gov. David Ige (Incumbent): 51.3%; to extreme lows in the Hawaii 124, 528 votes Legislature. Andria Tupola (Minority Leader, HI • The state House has already House of Reps.): 53%; 17,282 votes seen one of its few Republican lawmakers switch to the • Incumbent Governor David Ige (D) Democratic Party, specifically is seeking reelection in 2018 and naming Trump as the reason for has an approval/disapproval rating the move. of 37-49 percent, according to • These are two of the safest Morning Consult. Democratic chambers in the nation. • The governorship is projected as safely Democrat.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 19

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Projected Safe R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 29-6 R Bruce Bistline Paulette Jordan

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Safe R Current 59-11 R

Primary Results There’s a possibility of minor • Incumbent Lawrence Wasden (R) Democratic gains given the few is seeking election to a fifth term in Paulette Jordan (Former ID House GOP retirements and departures, yet office. Rep.): 58.5%; 38,458 votes nothing big enough to change the • Bruce Bistline, an attorney, is his Brad Little (Lt. Gov. of ID): 37.3%; makeup of either chamber, according Democratic challenger. 72,391 votes to Governing projections. • Wasden won 68% of the vote in the last election. • This race is projected as a safe • Incumbent Gov. C.L. “Butch” Otter Republican victory. (R) is eligible for, but will not seek, reelection. • The Democratic candidate is former State Rep. Paulette Jordan. • The governorship is expected to remain in Republican possession.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 20

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Projected Safe D Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 37-22 D J.B. Pritzker

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Safe D Erika Harold Bruce Rauner Current 67-51 D

Primary Results • Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner is • Incumbent Lisa Madigan (D) is not facing a tough reelection battle due seeking reelection. J.B. Pritzker (Businessman): 45.2%; 573,679 votes to discontent with President Trump • Erika Harold (former Gov. Bruce Rauner (Incumbent): 51.4%; 361,301 – it is unlikely for Republicans to 2003) is the Republican candidate, votes make significant gains in either and state Senator Kwame Raoul is • Incumbent Governor Bruce Rauner (R) is seeking chamber. the Democratic candidate. • Harold has an advantage in her reelection. • On track to be one of the most expensive • A bonus for Democrats is that star power, but Raoul has a strong governor’s races in U.S. history. gubernatorial nominee J.B. reputation as a lawmaker. • Gov. Rauner’s approval ratings have remained Pritzker is heavily funding his own • In a race between two largely consistently low. campaign, leaving pro-Democratic unknown candidates in a • Due in large part to a conservative third party outside groups able to devote their Democratic state, this election is candidate, this race has consistently allowed the money and time to shoring up projected to lean Democratic. Democrat to maintain a double digit lead. This control of the legislature. race is likely Democratic.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 21 Indiana

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Safe R Current Attorney General Current Governor: Current 41-9 R Curtis Hill (R) (R) House Projected Likely R The next election is 2020. The next election is 2020. Current 70-30 R

• The GOP edge in the Indiana Senate is big enough to withstand a Democratic wave. • However, it is possible that Democrats could gain some modest ground in the House, especially due to Republican retirements and a series of intraparty challenges supported by the aggressively anti-abortion group Hoosiers for Life. • Still, both chambers will remain in Republican hands.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 22 Iowa

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Likely R Democratic Nominee Current 28-20 R Uncontested/Incumbent Fred Hubbell AG: (D) House Republican Nominee Projected Safe R Current 59-41 R

Primary Results • The GOP remains favored in the • Incumbent Attorney General Tom House -- the more vulnerable Miller (D) was the only candidate for attorney general. Fred Hubbell (Businessman): 51.4%; of Iowa’s two chambers -- but 361,301 votes Democratic enthusiasm and • Miller is seeking his 10th term in Gov. Kim Reynolds (Incumbent): several retirements could make it Uncontested interesting. office and has served as the state’s attorney general since 1979. • The Democratic challenger is wealthy • The competitive gubernatorial race insurance executive Fred Hubbell. hasn’t really heated up yet, so the • Hubbell’s enormous primary victory, battle for the legislature remains carrying 96 of 99 counties amid hard to call. high Democratic turnout, prompted forecasters to predict this race as a toss-up.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 23 Kansas

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Democratic Nominee Current 31-9 R Democratic Nominee Sarah Swain House Republican Nominee Kris Kobach Projected Safe R Republican Nominee Independent Nominee Current 85-40 R Greg Orman

Primary Results • The Kansas House, the only • Incumbent Derek Schmidt (R) is chamber to be contested this fall, seeking a third term in office. Laura Kelly (KS State Sen.): 51.5%; 79,301 will remain in Republican hands. • Schmidt, a moderate, is popular amongst Kansas voters and is votes Kris Kobach (KS Secretary of State): 40.6%; • The next Senate election is 2020. expected to easily win reelection. • The state Democratic Party 127,211 votes • The race is projected as a likely Republican • However, if moderate Republicans has even called for Democratic victory. manage to gain enough ground, candidate Sarah Swain, an attorney, • Kobach unseated Gov. Jeff Colyer in the they can work with Democrats to to drop out of the race as of June. GOP primary by just 343 votes. shape key legislation. • This race is projected as a safe Republican victory. • Former GOP U.S. Sen. Nancy Kassebaum endorsed his Democratic opponent, Laura Kelly. • This race is a toss-up.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 24 Kentucky

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Projected Safe R Current Attorney General Current Governor: Current 27-11 R (D) Matt Bevin (R)

House The next election is 2019. Projected Safe R The next election is 2019. Current 63-37 R

• Kentucky is not promising territory for Democrats to gain back legislative ground, even in a favorable year like 2018.

• Expect Republicans to retain control of both chambers.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 25 Louisiana

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Current 25-14 R Current Attorney General Current Governor: (R) (D) House Current 61-41 R The next election is 2019. The next election is 2019.

Neither chamber in Louisiana is contested this year. The next election is 2019.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 26 Maine

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Tossup Democratic Nominee Current 18-17 R Current Attorney General: House Janet T. Mills (D) Projected Lean D Republican Nominee Current 74-70 D Shawn Moody

• The Attorney General of Maine is Primary Results • Given the uncertainty surrounding appointed by the state legislature. the gubernatorial race in Maine, Janet Mills (AG of ME): 54.1%; 63, 384 Governing rates Maine’s Senate votes a tossup and the House lean Shawn Moody (Entrepreneur): 52.6%; Democratic. 53,436 votes • However, if Democrats look strong • This race is projected as a toss-up. in the race for governor -- an office the GOP has controlled for eight years -- that could change ratings.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 27

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Projected Safe D Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 32-14 D Ben Jealous

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Safe D Craig Wolf Current 91-50 D

Primary Results • Both chambers in Maryland are • Incumbent Brian Frosh (D) will solidly Democratic. face Republican candidate Craig Ben Jealous (Former NAACP President): 39.6%; • The only issue is whether Wolf, an attorney, in the November 231,895 votes Republican Gov. Larry Hogan – with election. Gov. Larry Hogan: (Incumbent): 100%; 210,935 a high popularity rating in the state • Governor Hogan is not expected to votes/uncontested – will help oust enough incumbents spend much of his political capital to sustain vetoes. taking aim at Frosh. • The Sun reported that as many as • Currently, both chambers are veto- • This race is projected as a likely a quarter of Maryland Democrats intended to proof; the Democrats have more Democratic victory. cast their votes for the incumbent, regardless than the 85 representatives and 29 of who emerged from the Democratic senators needed to override Gov. primary. Hogan’s vetoes. • This race is projected as a likely Republican victory.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 28

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Projected Safe D Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 31-7 D Jay Gonzalez

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Safe D James McMahon Charles D. Baker Current 121-34 D

Primary Results This is a confident projection: • Incumbent Maura Healey (D) is Massachusetts’ lopsidedly seeking reelection. Jay Gonzalez (Former State Budget Democratic chambers will be solid in • She will be challenged in November Chief): 63.17%; 348, 434 votes 2018. by James McMahon, an attorney. • Healey is popular among Gov. Charles D. Baker (Incumbent): Massachusetts voters and enjoyed 63.78%; 174,126 votes an approval rating of 65% at the • Incumbent Gov. end of 2017, according to a New (R) is seeking reelection and has England University poll. received the endorsement of • Massachusetts has not elected a the Massachusetts Republican Republican attorney general since Convention. 1966. • Given Gov. Baker’s high approval • This race is projected as a safe ratings, this election is projected Democratic victory. as a safe race for the Republican incumbent.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 29 Michigan

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Projected Likely R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 27-10 R

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Lean R Tom Leonard Bill Schuette Current 63-46 R

Primary Results • In the Senate, 27 of 38 seats will • Speaker of the House Tom Leonard be open due to term limits, most of has the Republican nomination. Gretchen Whitmer (Former State Sen. them Republican. • Attorney Dana Nessel received the Minority Leader): 52%; 586,074 votes • Still, it’s unclear at this point Democratic Party’s nomination. Bill Schuette (AG of MI): 50.7%; 499,837 whether Democrats can win • This race is projected to be a toss- votes enough of them to flip the chamber up. this fall. • Due to term limitations, incumbent • In the House, a smaller percentage Gov. Rick Snyder (R) is ineligible for of seats are open, but there are reelection. about an equal number of seats • MI is often known to change the that are marginally Democratic and hands of power in each gubernatorial marginally Republican, boosting election. the Democrats’ odds of seizing the • This race leans Democratic. lower chamber.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 30 Minnesota

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Only one special election in 2018 Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 33-33

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Likely R Doug Wardlow Current 77-57 R Jeff Johnson

Primary Results • The next state Senate elections will • High profile candidate Keith Ellison, take place in 2020. former congressman, brought new attention to the race - recent Tim Walz (U.S. Rep.): 41.6%; 242,549 votes Jeff Johnson (Former MI House of Reps.): • There is one special Senate allegations of domestic abuse 52.6%; 168,495 votes election this year in District 13 by Ellison’s ex-girlfriend did not given the departure of Republican affect his primary win; the general • Incumbent Gov. Mark Dayton (D) is not Michelle Fischbach, who resigned election should be watched for a seeking a third term. to serve as lieutenant governor. public reaction. • This race is likely Democratic. This race will determine the control • Doug Wardlow is a former MN of the Senate. state representative. • This race is a toss-up.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 31 Mississippi

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Current 33-19 R Current Attorney General Jim Hood (D) Current Governor House Phil Bryant (R) Current 73-48 R The next election is 2019.

• The next Mississippi gubernatorial Neither chamber in Mississippi is election will take place on November contested this year. The next election 5, 2019. is 2019. • Primary elections will occur on August 6, 2019. • Incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Bryant is ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 32 Missouri

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Current Attorney General Projected Likely R (R) Current Governor Current 24-9 R 2018 Republican nominee for (R) MO U.S. Senate seat. House The next election is 2020. Projected Likely R Current 115-47 R The next election is 2020.

• Missouri’s former Republican governor, Eric Greitens, resigned in May in the face of alleged sexual impropriety.

• The GOP is expected to maintain control of both chambers.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 33 Montana

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Projected Safe R Current Attorney General Current Governor Current 32-18 R Tim Fox (R) Steve Bullock (D) House The next election is 2020. Projected Safe R The next election is 2020. Current 59-41 R

While President Trump’s popularity in the state has waned somewhat in recent months, it’s not likely to affect legislative races in Montana.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 34 Nebraska

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Democratic Nominee Bob Krist Senate Incumbent/Uncontested Unicameral/Nonpartisan Doug Peterson (R) Republican Nominee

Primary Results Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is • Incumbent Doug Peterson (R) is officially nonpartisan. running unopposed for a second term in office. Bob Krist (NE House Rep.): 60%; • The Democratic primary winner, 53,787 votes Evangelos Argyakis, recently Gov. Ricketts (Incumbent): 81.4%; withdrew after he was arrested for 137,144 votes attacking his father. • This race is projected as a safe • Incumbent Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) is Republican victory. running for reelection. • His Democratic challenger is State Sen. Bob Krist. • No Democrat has won the governorship since 1994. • The governorship is expected to remain in Republican possession.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 35

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Likely D Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 11-9 D Aaron Ford

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Likely D Adam Laxalt Current 27-15 D Wes Duncan

Primary Results • In the Senate, despite the tight • Incumbent Adam Laxalt (R) is not margin, Democratic incumbents seeking reelection and is instead Steve Sisolak (Chair, Clark County, NV look solid. running for governor. • State Senate Majority Leader Aaron Commission): 50%; 72,726 votes Adam Laxalt (AG of NV): 71.5%; 101,617 • The Assembly, meanwhile, does Ford is the Democratic candidate. votes not appear to have enough • Former Nevada State • Due to term limitations, incumbent vulnerable Democratic seats to flip, Assemblyman and Deputy Attorney Gov. (R) is ineligible for either. General Wes Duncan is the Republican candidate. reelection. • Given the significant number of • The general election is expected to come undecided voters, this race is down to voter turnout and which candidate projected to be a toss-up. can better appeal to the growing number of registered nonpartisan voters. • This race is widely considered to be a toss-up.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 36

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Lean D Current Attorney General Democratic Nominee Current 14-10 R Gordon MacDonald (R) Molly Kelly

House Republican Nominee Projected Lean D Appointed by Governor. Current 218-175 R

Primary Results • In recent election cycles, New Hampshire has been one of the Molly Kelly (Former State Sen.): 65.5%; nation’s most closely divided and 80,598 votes most ‘swinging’ of swing states. Gov. Chris Sununu (Incumbent): 98.3%; • A flip to Democratic control is quite 91,025 votes possible, but it is still early. • What is certain is that both • Historically, New Hampshire voters chambers will be competitive this have been known to oust a new fall – Governing projects this as a governor immediately after their first toss-up. two-year term. • This race leans Republican.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 37

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Current 25-15 D Current Attorney General Current Governor (D) (D) Assembly Current 52-26 D Appointed by Governor. The next election is 2021.

Neither chamber in New Jersey is contested this year. The next election is 2019.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 38

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Current 26-16 D Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee House Projected Safe D Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Current 38-32 D Michael Hendricks Steve Pearce

Primary Results • New Mexico is a state where the • Incumbent Hector Balderas (D) is Democrats can expect a boost this seeking reelection to his second Michelle Lujan Grisham (U.S. House fall. term in office. • Attorney Michael Hendricks is the of Rep.): 66.4%; 116,287 votes Rep. Steve Pearce (U.S. House of • With Democrats already in control Republican candidate. Rep.): Uncontested of both chambers, modest gains • Both Balderas and Hendricks were are possible. unopposed in their respective primaries. • Due to term limitations, Incumbent Governor (R) is • The next Senate race is 2020. • Balderas is the heavy favorite, and the race is projected as a safe ineligible to seek reelection. Democratic victory. • This race is projected to lean Democratic.

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State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Democratic Nominee Projected Lean D Democratic Nominee Current 32-31 R (cross-party coalition) Republican Nominee Keith Wofford Assembly Republican Nominee Projected Safe D Green Party Nominee Marc Molinaro Current 102-37 D Michael Sussman

Primary Results • Special elections on April 24 gave • (D) is currently state Senate Democrats -- long the serving as the acting Attorney Gov. Andrew Cuomo (Incumbent): chamber’s minority -- a numerical General but will not run for the 65.6%; 978, 168 votes edge. office in 2018. Marc Molinaro (Dutchess County • Democrat Simcha Felder has said • Republican candidate Keith Executive): Uncontested he would continue to caucus with Wofford, an attorney, will face off the GOP. against the Democrat and Public • Stephanie Miner, former Mayor • If Democrats run strong in Advocate Letitia James. of Syracuse, is the independent November, his decision may be • This race is projected as a likely nominee. irrelevant. Democratic victory. • The governorship is projected to • Still, there’s enough up in the air to remain in Democratic possession. be projected a toss-up.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 40 North Carolina

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Likely R Current Attorney General Current Governor Current 35-15 R (D) (D) House Projected Likely R The next election is 2020. The next election is 2020. Current 75-45 R

• The Democrats are poised to pick up seats in both chambers in North Carolina, especially in the House. • The more urgent question is whether the Democrats can pick up enough seats to break the GOP supermajority in either chamber, handing Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper a weightier veto threat. • In the House, the Democrats would need to net four seats to break the supermajority and would need six in the Senate.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 41 North Dakota

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Safe R Democratic Nominee David Thompson Current Governor Current 38-9 R (R) Assembly Republican Nominee Projected Safe R The next election is 2020. Current 81-13 R

North Dakota’s strong Republican • Republican nominee Wayne margins are not in danger of eroding Stenehjem is the inumbent. this year. • Democratic nominee David Thompson is an attorney. • This race is projected to be safely Republican.

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State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Safe R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 24-9 R Steve Dettelbach Richard Cordray

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Likely R Current 66-33 R Mike DeWine

Primary Results • Only half the seats in the Ohio • Incumbent Mike DeWine (R) will Senate are up in any cycle, which not be seeking reelection, as he is Richard Cordray (Former Consumer makes it less susceptible to wave running for governor of Ohio. Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) conditions. • The Democratic candidate is Director): 62.3%; 423,264 votes • The House is a bit more vulnerable former U.S. Attorney Steve Mike DeWine (AG of OH): 59.8%; 494,766 (and is being buffeted by scandal Dettelbach. votes and leadership issues). • The Republican candidate is State • The GOP edge in the House is wide Auditor Dave Yost. • Due to term limitations, incumbent and should be able to survive even • Both candidates are strong Gov. John Kasich (R) is ineligible for a sizable Democratic wave. contenders in this election, and the race will likely be influenced by reelection. top-of-the-ballot contests, such as • This race is widely considered to be a the open gubernatorial seat and toss-up. competitive U.S. Senate race. This race is projected to be a toss-up.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 43 Oklahoma

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Safe R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 40-8 R Mark Myles Drew Edmondson

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Likely R Current 72-28 R Mike Hunter

Primary Results • The Oklahoma Senate is certain to • Incumbent Mike Hunter (R) will stay in Republican hands, with only face Democratic candidate Mark Drew Edmondson (Former AG of OK): 24 of 48 seats up this cycle and a Myles, an attorney, in November. 61.4%; 242,504 votes big GOP edge. • This race is projected as a safe Kevin Stitt (Businessman): 29.3%; • Dissatisfaction with GOP Gov. Mary Republican victory. 132,713 votes Fallin has been brewing, and a battle over education funding has • Incumbent Gov. Mary Fallin (R) energized Democrats. faces term limitations and is • If any Democratic gains are to ineligible to seek reelection. materialize, it’s likelier to happen • This race is a toss up. the House. • For now, Republican victory does not seem to be seriously threatened.

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State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Safe D Current Attorney General Democratic Nominee Current 17-13 D (D) House Republican Nominee Projected Safe D The next election is 2020. Knute Buehler Current 35-25 D

• The Democratic margins in the Primary Results Oregon Legislature are modest, but it’s a blue enough state in a blue Gov. Kate Brown (Incumbent): 82.7%; enough year to be considered safe 264,526 votes for now. Knute Buehler (OR State Rep.): 46.5%; • Democrats may be able to secure 125,124 votes the one seat in each chamber that is needed to gain a three-fifths • This race is a toss-up. supermajority. • Going in the Democrats’ favor is that the most competitive seats are in districts where Republican incumbents are leaving and where Democrats have been gaining ground.

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State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Likely R Current Attorney General Democratic Nominee Current 34-16 R (D) House Republican Nominee Projected Likely R The next election is 2020. Current 119-81 R Scott Wagner

Primary Results • The Democrats should be able to gain seats in both chambers. Gov. Tom Wolf (Incumbent): • Party strategists believe Democrats Uncontested have a path to taking over the state Scott Wagner (PA State Sen.): 44.3%; House this year, but it is premature 323,635 votes to say that it is a likely outcome. • Unlike the congressional • Although President Trump won district map, which was recently Pennsylvania in 2016, a June overturned by the state supreme F&M poll found that 51% of voters court as an invalid partisan disapprove of the president. gerrymander, the lines in both • This race is projected as a likely state legislative chambers remain Democratic victory favorable to the GOP.

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State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Safe D Democratic Nominee Current 33-4 D Democratic Nominee (Uncontested) House Republican Nominee Projected Safe D Allan Fung Current 64-11 D

Primary Results • Despite a competitive gubernatorial • Incumbent Peter Kilmartin (D) is race, the large Democratic term limited and ineligible to seek Gov. Gina Raimondo (Incumbent): majorities in the state legislature reelection. 57.1%; 66,978 votes look solid for 2018. • Former U.S. Attorney Peter Neronha, a Democrat, is the only Allan Fung (Mayor of Cranston, RI): 56.4%; 18,577 votes • That said, there could be an major party candidate on the ballot. • Raimondo and Fung previously ideological shift to the left within • This race is projected as a safe faced off against one another the Democratic caucus. Democratic victory. during the 2014 gubernatorial election. • Joe Trillo, former House minority whip in the state legislature, is the Independent nominee. • This race leans Democrat.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 47 South Carolina

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate Current 28-18 R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Constance Anastopoulo James Smith Jr. House Projected Safe R Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Current 79-44 R Alan Wilson Henry McMaster

Primary Results • The Senate chamber is not in • Incumbent Alan Wilson (R)will be contest this year. The next Senate challenged by Democrat Constance James Smith (SC State Rep.): 61.8%; 147,987 races are in 2020. Anastopoulo, an attorney, in the votes • In the House, the GOP will be in general election. Gov. Henry McMaster (Incumbent): 42.3%; good shape to retain its sizable • Although he was scrutinized for his 155,072 votes majority, with only modest, if any, connection to a high profile political • Incumbent Governor Henry McMaster (R) erosion. corruption case during the primary contest, Wilson cruised to an easy is seeking re-election with the support of victory in the runoff. President Trump. • Democratic candidate Anastopoulo • In a state where the President’s endorsement will encounter a difficult road ahead carries significant weight, Gov. McMaster still to unseat the two term incumbent. has ties to an on-going political corruption • This race is projected as leans investigation that is likely to draw criticism. Republican. • This race is projected as a likely Republican victory.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 48 South Dakota

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Safe R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 29-6 R Randy Seiler Billie Sutton

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Safe R Current 60-10 R

Primary Results The Republicans are in no danger of • In SD, political parties nominate losing significant ground in this solidly state executive candidates at their Billie Sutton (Minority Leader, SD State red state. conventions, with the exception of the Gov.’s Office. Sen.): Uncontested • The Democratic Party Convention Kristi Noem (U.S. House of Reps.): nominated former U.S. Attorney 56%; 57,437 votes Randy Seiler as the party’s candidate. • Due to term limitations, incumbent • The Republican Party Convention Governor Dennis Daugaard (R) is nominated Jason Ravnsborg, ineligible to run for reelection. attorney and lieutenant colonel in • A new Argus Leader/KELO TV poll the U.S. Army Reserve. Incumbent in South Dakota finds Noem and Marty J. Jackley (R) is term limited. Sutton deadlocked in the race for • This race is projected as a safe governor, 45% to 45%. Republican victory. • This race is a toss-up.

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State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Safe R Democratic Nominee Current 28-5 R Current Attorney General Karl Dean III (R) House Republican Nominee Projected Safe R Current 74-25 R Bill Lee

Primary Results • There may be a few more seats Tennessee is the only state where the than usual in play in Tennessee, attorney general is appointed by the Karl Dean (Former Mayor of Nashville, TN): and former Democratic Gov. Phil state Supreme Court. 75.1%; 279,324 votes Bredesen is making a credible run Bill Lee (Farmer/Businessman): 36.7%; for an open U.S. Senate seat. 289,699 votes • However, significant Democratic • Incumbent Governor (R) is gains look unlikely for now. ineligible for re-election. • This race is projected as a likely Republican victory.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 50 Texas

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Safe R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 20-11 R Justin Nelson Lupe Valdez

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Likely R Current 93-56 R

Primary Results • Even though Democrats are excited • Incumbent Ken Paxton (R) is about Beto O’Rourke’s chances at seeking reelection, the Democratic Lupe Valdez (Former Dallas County Sheriff): unseating Republican U.S. Sen. Ted nominee Justin Nelson is an 52.7%; 227,889 votes Cruz, Governing does not project attorney in TX. Gov. Greg Abbot (Incumbent): 90.4%; major Democratic gains in the • Despite facing a trial for securities 1,392,310 votes legislature. fraud, the incumbent is currently • Democratic gains are likelier in projected to cruise to victory, riding • Incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) was first the House, where Democrats are the coattails of Governor Abbott’s elected to office in 2014 and is seeking contesting an unusually large reelection in a solidly conservative reelection this year. number of seats. state. • In a state which has not elected a • That said, a double-digit increase • This is a safe Republican seat. Democratic governor since 1990, Gov. seems like a stretch. Abbott is the heavy favorite in November. • The governorship is expected to remain in Republican possession.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 51 Utah

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Safe R Current Attorney General Current Governor Current 24-5 R (R) Gary Herbert (R) House Projected Safe R The next election is 2020. The next election is 2020. Current 62-13 R

Democrats might be able to make some marginal gains, but Utah Republicans are in no danger of significant losses.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 52 Vermont

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Safe D Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 21-7 D T.J. Donovan Christine Hallquist

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Safe D H. Brooke Paige Current 83-53 D Phillip Scott

Primary Results • Democrats will hold on to both • Incumbent T.J. Donovan (D) is chambers in Vermont. seeking a second term and will face Republican candidate H. Christine Hallquist (Businesswoman): 48.3%; 27,619 votes • The most pressing question is Brooke Paige. Phillip Scott (Incumbent): 67.5%; 24,220 whether Republicans lose more • Paige is a perennial candidate votes than two seats in the House, a who has filed to run in 5 statewide result that would leave them with races. • Hallquist is the first openly transgender too few votes to sustain a veto by • This race is projected as a safe major party nominee for gov. in the U.S. GOP Gov. . Democratic victory. • Gov. Scott has distanced himself from President Trump, whose approval rating in Vermont was last reported at 38%. • The governorship is expected to remain in Republican possession.

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State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial

Senate One special election in District 8 Current Attorney General Current Governor Current 20-19 R (D) (D)

House The next election is 2021. The next election is 2021. Current 51-49 R

• Neither chamber in Virginia is contested this year; however, there is one special election in District 8: Carter Turner III (D), former chair of the Roanoke County Democratic Committee, and Joseph McNamara (R), Roanoke County Supervisor, will face each other in the special election. • The next House races are in 2019. • The next Senate races are in 2020.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 54 Washington State

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Likely D Current Attorney General Current Governor Current 26-23 D Bob Ferguson (D) (D)

House The next election is 2020. The next election is 2020. Projected Likely D Current 50-48 D

• Both chambers in Washington state should remain blue this fall. • Still, given narrow margins, projections keep both chambers leaning Democratic.

McGuireWoods Consulting | 55 West Virginia

State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Likely R Current Attorney General Current Governor Current 22-12 R (R) (R) House Projected Safe R The next election is 2020. The next election is 2020. Current 64-36 R

• West Virginia remains in favor of President Trump, and the GOP’s margins in both chambers are sizable.

• Democratic gains, if any, will be minor.

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State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Toss-up Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee Current 18-14 R

Assembly Republican Nominee Republican Nominee Projected Likely R Current 63-35 R Scott Walker

Primary Results • Democrats are optimistic about • Wisconsin’s primary elections had their chances in the state Senate, only one AG candidate running per Tony Evers (Superintendent of Public where they only need to net three party. Instruction of WI): 41.8%; 224,502 votes seats to take control. • Incumbent Brad Schimel (R) is seeking a second term in office. Gov. Scott Walker (Incumbent): 91.6%; 417,619 votes • By contrast, the GOP’s margin in the • The Democratic candidate is Assembly should be large enough former Assistant U.S. Attorney • Despite the disapproval numbers for to hold, despite the possibility of Josh Kaul. Gov. Walker, recent polling suggests some modest losses. • Given Wisconsin’s politically polarized electorate as well as that the race is a toss-up. recent Democratic special election successes, this race is considered to be a toss-up.

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State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial Senate Projected Safe R Current Attorney General Democratic Nominee Current 27-3 R Peter Michael (R) Assembly Republican Nominee Projected Safe R Appointed by the Governor. Current 51-9 R Mark Gordon

Primary Results The Republican majorities in Wyoming have nothing to worry about Mary Throne (WY House of Reps.): 72.9%; in 2018, according to Governing. 12,944 votes Mark Gordon (WY State Treasurer): 33.4%; 38,915 votes

• Due to term limitations, incumbent Gov. (R) is ineligible to seek reelection. • The governorship is expected to safely remain in Republican possession.

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