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Week Ending Friday, September 25, 2020 www.mackaygroup.com 1-800-561-4468 MacKay Group Wealth Management. Our mission is to provide our clients superior investment advice, products and service. Serving clients and friends at RBC Dominion Securities Inc. – a member of RBC Financial Group since 1983. HOW I SEE IT – by Bruce MacKay full economic recovery still years away - likely late Worst is yet support /Long slog / Middle of V 2023 to have unemployment of 4%.”(B. Wesbury) V- shaped recovery continues - we’re in the middle of it When you have such a strong equity rally from a - expect 5 to 10% growth in Q4 - we have strong major correction it pauses + pulls back - base momentum - stimulus takes a year to fully appear - building - for sales and earnings to catch up. will start to appear in Q4 and Q1 - expect good news on vaccine and therapeutics - long bond yields Positives: AAII investor’s bullish sentiment reading to rise as yields are too low in relation to Feds this week 24.89% - bearish reading climbs- good inflation targets - good for financials , cyclicals, contrarian reading. End of quarter window dressing small caps and emerging markets. (Jim Paulson) - portfolio managers repositioning – selling the losers and adding to the winners. CDN PM laid out Negatives: “Worst is yet to come” thinking (the wall plans to rebuild the country’s economy according to of worry)- for the past 3 weeks equities have faltered the OEDC - Canada‘s fiscal response to the as a renewed sense of concerns has undermined the pandemic was one of the strongest among advanced general positive narrative around equities - Europe economies as a share of GDP. M&A activity having more lockdowns - FDA sets a higher continues - even Berkshire Hathaway keeps threshold for approval of COVID-19 vaccine investing- $600m into E.W. Scripps. “Latest pullback dimming hopes of now - back to school and flu could be pricing in “worst is yet to come”" - 62% season adding to fear of mass of new wave of deaths retracement since June brings S&P 500 to 3224.50 - - 2020 election cannot look beyond 11/3 as the next important support level - US Covid-19 trends are 40 days is all that matters. Markets overbought - we very good, daily cases, deaths, hospitalizations - US move from strong August to weak September. schools and colleges are 21 day into school year and Canada stats - only 29% of Canada small business a mere 0.075% of US students are infected are back to full sales (Bloomberg). First presidential (shockingly low) - we see markets able to rally post- debate - September 29 - will add fuel to the fire. election day with either a Trump or Biden outcome but less so if it is contested. “(T Lee/ Fundstrat). Investment Philosophy: “Although it’s easy to J&J - one dose vaccine entered phase 3 of testing. forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket… its On equity front - Dividend increases are starting to part ownership of a business.” – Peter Lynch outpace cuts. It’s about housing - US housing boom continues - even new home construction in Canada Be well. Bruce hits its highest since 2007. “Long slog recovery based on economic reports looks like Q3 will be Stock of the Days this week include: CPX, QQQ, mother of all economic rebounds - industrial FTS, NKE, FID5982 production and retail sales expected to be up 37.6% at 60.1% annual rates - total private sector hours worked would expand 25.6% annual rate - housing starts up a 218% annual rate - real US GDP at 32% annual - fastest for any quarter since World War II - Page 1 9/25/2020 THIS WEEK’S NOTES & QUOTES - News and Opinions Worth Repeating Don’t overthink it: Markets trend higher regardless of which party in White House Growth of a hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 Source: Morningstar, S&P, Capital Group. The start date is March 4, 1933, and the end date is June 30, 2020. Dates of party control are based on inauguration dates. Values are based on total returns in USD. Shown on a logarithmic scale Feds pledge $440M to international vaccine push; ink AstraZeneca deal Canada will spend $440 million to join an international program which is trying ensure COVID-19 vaccines aren't just hoarded by rich countries, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday. But Canada is spending more than twice that to gain private access to millions of doses of some of the most promising vaccines in development. That includes a sixth deal announced Friday with AstraZeneca for up to 20 million doses of its vaccine candidate, which is in the third and final phase of clinical trials. The federal government has committed more than $1 billion to buying vaccines for Canada, much of which is not refundable even if the vaccines are never approved. Trudeau also unveiled Canada's financial commitment for the COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access Facility, known as COVAX. Canada is among 64 high-income countries that have committed to joining COVAX. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/feds-pledge-440m-to-international-vaccine-push-ink-astrazeneca-deal- 1.1499468 Page 2 9/25/2020 Montreal payment provider Nuvei soars in TSX trading debut The next Canadian tech darling may very well be Nuvei Corp. after the Montreal-based payment processor's stock climbed more than 50 per cent in its first hour of trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday. The company, which helps to facilitate online and in-person transactions between merchants and payment services, listed its stock on the TSX at around US$26 a share prior to Thursday's market open following strong demand it received during an initial marketing campaign that aimed to raise about US$700 million. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/montreal-payment-provider-nuvei-soars-in-tsx-trading-debut-1.1495475 House prices will fall even if worst-case scenario averted: CMHC Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation President and CEO Evan Siddall is warning the domestic housing market isn’t out of the woods just yet. In an interview with BNN Bloomberg’s Amanda Lang broadcast Thursday, Siddall said that while the most bearish case for home prices doesn’t seem likely to come to pass, he still sees a price decline by just shy of 10 per cent due to the economic shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic. “The number of people on income support, the number of people on mortgage deferral, means that at some point, probably early next year through the middle part of next year, there will probably be a negative adjustment in house prices,” he said. “In general, we think high single-digit [percentage] negative adjustment is what we can expect in most markets.” https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/house-prices-will-fall-even-if-worst-case-scenario-averted-cmhc-1.1498968 U.S. files opposition to TikTok's request to halt Trump ban The U.S. filed sealed papers opposing TikTok’s request to halt a Trump administration ban on the video- sharing app that’s scheduled to go into effect this weekend. ByteDance Ltd., TikTok’s owner, has sought a temporary block on the ban even as it pursues administration approvals for the sale of a stake in the video-sharing app to Oracle Corp. and Walmart Inc. ByteDance wants the court to weigh its request ahead of the prohibition, which takes effect just before midnight on Sunday. President Donald Trump has told the company it can either sell its American TikTok business or get out of U.S. app stores. On Friday, the judge granted the Justice Department’s request to file its opposition under seal. He had given the U.S. until 2:30 p.m. to delay the ban or fight TikTok’s request. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-files-opposition-to-tiktok-s-request-to-halt-trump-ban-1.1499524 Page 3 9/25/2020 CANADIAN MARKETS I. Canadian Fixed Income Benchmark Canada Government Bonds IV. News we recommend on our CDN Holdings CDN Yield Curve @ Sept 25, 2020 Market prices as of market close on Sept 25, 2020 Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.a) 1.700% 2020 Investor Day: Reinforcing our views. Ranking: Outperform (RBCCM). 1.200% Price C$43.36 - Target C$53.60. 0.700% Aritzia inc (ATZ) Constructive long term view ahead of Q2 results 0.200% Ranking Outperform (RBCCM) 2-Yrs 5-Yrs 10-Yrs 30-Yrs Price C$17.87 - Target C$24.00 MG Canadian Fixed Income Top Holdings Fortis (FTS) Government & Corporate Bonds The Rock is cooking ESG-friendly growth Convertible Debentures Ranking Outperform (RBCCM) High Yield Open End & Closed End Funds Price C$53.78 - Target C$60.00. Rate Reset/Fixed Floater Preferreds Perpetual Preferreds Inter Pipeline Ltd (IPL). UK, Ireland, Netherlands and Germany eliminated Ranking Sector Perform (RBCCM) II. RBC DS SUMMER CDN 2020 Equity Focus List Price C$13.10 - Target C$15.00. RBC CM Focus List: TELUS, Dollarama Inc., Magna International Inc., Restaurant Brands, Alimentation Please contact our office if you would like a copy of any of Couche-Tard Inc., Pembina, Suncor Energy, TC the above research reports. Energy Corp, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, National Bank, Royal Bank of Canada, TD Bank, Intact Financial, Brookfield Asset Mgmt, Research Publications (available upon request) Element Fleet Mgmt Corp, Canadian National Railway, Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd, Thomson Global Insight- 2020 Outlook Reuters, Toromont Industries Ltd., Waste RBC Strategy CDN Focus List: FALL 2020 Connections Inc., Constellation Software Inc. CCL RBC CM FEW Portfolio – FALL 2020 Industries, Franco-Nevada Corp, Nutrien Ltd, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, First Capital REIT, Close Fortis Inc.
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