14th Vanderbilt University Poll
September 19-October 2, 2016
John G. Geer & Joshua D. Clinton, Co-Directors
October 6, 2016
1,000 registered voters in Tennessee
MoE: +/- 3.7 percentage points Candidate Choice– September 2016 Among TN Registered Voters If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Donald Trump], [Hillary Clinton], [Gary Johnson], and [Jill Stein], who would you vote for? 60%
Hillary Clinton 44% Donald Trump 40% 33% Gary Johnson
Jill Stein
20% Some other candidate/would not vote Don't know 7% 7% 5% 1% 0%
Source: Vanderbilt University Poll September 2016 N=1,000; MoE: +/- 3.7% Candidate Choice Over Time Among TN Registered Voters May 2016: “If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Hillary Clinton, the Democrat/Donald Trump, the Republican], for whom would you vote?”
September 2016: “If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Donald Trump], [Hillary Clinton], [Gary Johnson], and [Jill Stein], who would you vote for?”
60%
44% 44% 40% 35% 33%
20% 15%
7% 7% 4% 5% 1% 0% May 2016 September 2016 Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Some other candidate/would not vote Don't know
Source: Vanderbilt University Polls September 2016 Poll: N=1,000; MoE: +/- 3.7 % Enthusiasm for Candidate Choice Among TN Registered Voters How enthusiastic are you about voting for [Trump/Clinton/Johnson/Stein/some other candidate]?
100%
86%
80% 77%
60%
40%
19% 20% 13%
0% Trump supporters Clinton supporters Very or somewhat enthusiastic Not too or not at all enthusiastic Source: Vanderbilt University Poll September 2016 N=1,000; MoE: +/- 3.7% Candidate Choice by Region Among TN Registered Voters If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Donald Trump], [Hillary Clinton], [Gary Johnson], and [Jill Stein], who would you vote for? 60% 53% 50% 46%
40% 40% 38%
28% 28%
21% 20%
10% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% Eastern TN Nashville area Central TN (ex. Western TN, inc. Nashville) Memphis Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Some other candidate/would not vote Don't know Source: Vanderbilt University Poll September 2016 N=1,000; MoE: +/- 3.7% Candidate Choice by Community Type Among TN Registered Voters If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Donald Trump], [Hillary Clinton], [Gary Johnson], and [Jill Stein], who would you vote for? 60%
50% 50% 49%
40%
29% 27% 23% 20%
7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 5% 4% 4% 2% 1% 2% 0% Rural Suburban Urban Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Some other candidate/would not vote Don't know Source: Vanderbilt University Poll September 2016 N=1,000; MoE: +/- 3.7% Candidate Choice by Party Identification Among TN Registered Voters If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Donald Trump], [Hillary Clinton], [Gary Johnson], and [Jill Stein], who would you vote for? 100%
82% 82% 80% 71%
60%
39% 40% 27%
20% 15% 13% 10% 7% 6% 3% 5% 4% 3% 3% 4% 5% 3% 4% 0% 2% 0% 2% 1% 0% Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Some other candidate/would not vote Don't know Source: Vanderbilt University Poll September 2016 N=1,000; MoE: +/- 3.7% Candidate Choice by Gender Among TN Registered Voters If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Donald Trump], [Hillary Clinton], [Gary Johnson], and [Jill Stein], who would you vote for?
60%
47% 42% 40% 32% 33%
20%
9% 10% 6% 5% 4% 4% 1% 2% 0% Men Women Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Some other candidate/would not vote Don't know Source: Vanderbilt University Poll September 2016 N=1,000; MoE: +/- 3.7% Candidate Choice by Education Among TN Registered Voters If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Donald Trump], [Hillary Clinton], [Gary Johnson], and [Jill Stein], who would you vote for?
60%
46% 45% 42%
40% 36% 31% 29%
20%
10% 9% 10% 10% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 2% 0% H.S. degree or less Some college College degree or more Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Some other candidate/would not vote Don't know
Source: Vanderbilt University Poll September 2016 N=1,000; MoE: +/- 3.7% Candidate Choice by Age Among TN Registered Voters If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Donald Trump], [Hillary Clinton], [Gary Johnson], and [Jill Stein], who would you vote for? 60%
48% 46% 41% 40% 38% 37% 37%
28% 26% 22% 20%
10% 8% 9% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 3% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Some other candidate/would not vote Don't know
Source: Vanderbilt University Poll September 2016 N=1,000; MoE: +/- 3.7% Candidate Choice by Religious Attendance Among TN Registered Voters If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Donald Trump], [Hillary Clinton], [Gary Johnson], and [Jill Stein], who would you vote for?
How often do you attend church, mosque, synagogue or another place of worship? 80%
60% 58% 48% 48%
40% 30% 28%
20% 18% 10% 7% 7% 9% 4% 6% 4% 4% 5% 2% 0% 1% 0% Never or rarely Once a week or less More than once a week Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Some other candidate/would not vote Don't know
Source: Vanderbilt University Poll September 2016 N=1,000; MoE: +/- 3.7% Candidate Choice by Optimism About Country Among TN Registered Voters If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Donald Trump], [Hillary Clinton], [Gary Johnson], and [Jill Stein], who would you vote for?
When you think about the future of the United States, which do you agree with more?
60% 55%
48%
40% 34%
19% 20%
8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 1% 2% 2% 0% The country's best days are ahead of us The country's best days are behind us Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Some other candidate/would not vote Don't know
Source: Vanderbilt University Poll September 2016 N=1,000; MoE: +/- 3.7% Candidate Choice by Feelings Toward National Government Among TN Registered Voters If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Donald Trump], [Hillary Clinton], [Gary Johnson], and [Jill Stein], who would you vote for?
Some people say they are basically content with the way the national government works today, others say they are frustrated, and others say they are angry. Which of these best describes how you feel?
80% 73% 66% 60%
40% 40% 34%
20% 13% 10% 9% 8% 6% 8% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 0% 1% 2% 0% Basically content Frustrated Angry Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Some other candidate/would not vote Don't know
Source: Vanderbilt University Poll September 2016 N=1,000; MoE: +/- 3.7% Rationale for Candidate Choice Among TN Registered Voters Which one of these four candidate qualities matters most in your decision to support [Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton]?
100%
80% 74%
Has the personality and temperament to 60% serve effectively as president Is honest and trustworthy 48% Cares about people like you 40% Is the kind of person who can bring 23% about needed change 20% 15% 10% 10% 6% 7%
0% Trump supporters Clinton supporters Source: Vanderbilt University Poll September 2016 N=1,000; MoE: +/- 3.7%