SK Telecom (017670 KS/Buy)
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
SK Telecom (017670 KS/Buy) Share repurchase and subsidiary acquisition Telecom Service SKT disclosed share repurchase plan and decision to acquire SK Communications Scale of share repurchase is 30% larger than the original plan; Positive for the stock Issue Comment Acquisition of SK Communications is necessary to be in compliance with the MRFTA September 25, 2015 Share repurchase is positive; Acquisition of SK Communications was inevitable Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. 1) Share repurchase to boost shareholder value [Telecom Service / Media] SK Telecom (SKT) disclosed yesterday its plan to buy back W523.2bn worth of its shares Jee-hyun Moon (2.02mn shares) from September 25 th to December 24 th . This amount is around 30% higher +822-768-3615 than the firm originally planned. SKT aims to boost shareholder value through the buyback. [email protected] th Following a share swap on June 9 with SK Broadband (to convert the firm into a wholly- owned subsidiary), SKT’s treasury shares declined from 9.8mn to 8.11mn (as of end-June). This move negatively affected its stock price. After the planned stock repurchase, the number of treasury shares is anticipated to rise to 10.13mn (12.5% of total shares). The firm is expected to increase its year-end dividend payments regardless of the repurchase plan. SKT’s stock closed yesterday at W261,500, equivalent to a 2015F P/E of 11.1x (13% lower than the upper P/E band over the past year) and a P/B of 1.2x (17% lower than the upper P/B band over the past year). The firm’s ROE is similar to the global peer group average of 12%, but its 2015F P/E is 54% lower than the average of 17x, suggesting that the stock is deeply undervalued relative to its global peers. Moreover, the telco’s earnings are projected to improve in 2H compared to 1H. As such, its decision to repurchase shares should be positive for the stock price. 2) SKT to acquire SK Communications from SK Planet to conform to the MRFTA SKT decided to acquire SK Communications (066270 KQ) by purchasing 28.02mn shares (64.54% stake) from SK Planet. The decision was likely inevitable due to the requirements of the Monopoly Regulation and Fair Trade Act (MRFTA). The acquisition will be made in the form of distribution in kind (61.05% stake; 26.52mn shares) and over-the-counter contracts (3.46% stake; 1.5mn shares; W11.1bn in cash). SK Communications is a third-tier subsidiary of SK Holdings, a second-tier subsidiary of SKT, and a first-tier subsidiary of SK Planet. As the MRFTA requires second-tier subsidiaries to wholly own third-tier subsidiaries, SK Planet (as a second-tier subsidiary of SK Holdings) decided to dispose of its stake in SK Communications to be in compliance; with SKT’s acquisition, SK Communications will become a second-tier subsidiary of SK Holdings. FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue (Wbn) 16,141 16,602 17,164 17,575 18,099 18,627 OP (Wbn) 1,730 2,011 1,825 1,890 2,028 2,040 OP margin (%) 10.7 12.1 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.0 NP (Wbn) 1,152 1,639 1,801 1,895 1,991 2,009 EPS (W) 14,263 20,298 22,307 23,465 24,663 24,876 ROE (%) 9.8 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.6 11.8 P/E (x) 10.7 11.3 12.0 11.1 10.6 10.5 P/B (x) 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. September 25, 2015 SK Telecom To be in compliance, SK Planet was originally slated to sell 22.14mn shares of SK Communications to IHQ. Under a plan announced on August 26 th , SK Planet would have sold SK Communications shares to IHQ in return for IHQ shares (via a rights offering with a third- party allotment). However, the deal was canceled on September 23 rd , as C&M, the largest shareholder of IHQ, still had not received approval from its creditor. We believe the cancellation led SKT to come forward to buy the company. The acquisition will change the status of SK Communications to a second-tier subsidiary within the SK Group and a subsidiary of SKT. The acquisition date is October 1 st , three days ahead of the end of the grace period for addressing the third-tier subsidiary issue (October 4th ). Since SK Communications is a listed firm, the acquisition price was calculated based on the September 24 th closing price. SKT will acquire a 61.08% stake in SK Communications from SK Planet via interim stock dividend. As such, the actual cash that SKT needs to acquire SK Communications is estimated at only W11.1bn. In 2014, SK Communications posted revenue of W93.9bn and a net loss of W18.3bn. We think the impact of the acquisition on SKT’s earnings will be limited, as SK Communications’ earnings have already been consolidated in SKT. In the announcement, SKT said the acquisition was aimed at engaging in a next-generation platform business and creating synergies. From a short-term perspective, however, we believe the decision was made in order to comply with the MRFTA. Whether SKT in fact makes strategic use of SK Communications’ services and assets deserves close attention, as the company has announced a mid- to long-term plan to enhance its corporate value. As of end-1H, SKT’s cash holdings stood at W155.6bn. Including investments in short-term financial products, cash holdings are estimated at W555.7bn. On a consolidated basis, cash holdings are projected at W829.6bn (W1.4tr including short-term investments). For the full year, we expect consolidated net profit of W1.89tr. SKT’s acquisition of SK Communications is not the best-case scenario, in our view, but the decision was likely unavoidable with the end of the grace period approaching. In our view, the acquisition should have only a limited impact on SKT’s business in light of SK Communications’ relatively small size and value, SKT’s aggressive expansion of the platform business, and SKT’s announcement of a large-scale treasury share buyback. We maintain our Buy call on SKT with a target price of W350,000. Figure 111.1. With acquisition bybyby SKT (to comply with MRFTA), SK Communications will move up one step in the corporate structure Source: SK Group, KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 September 25, 2015 SK Telecom APPENDIX 1 Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 222-2---YearYear Rating and Target Price History Company (Code) DateDateDate RatingRatingRating Target Price (W) SK Telecom SK Telecom(017670) 07/31/2015 Buy 350,000 400,000 05/06/2015 Buy 360,000 10/01/2014 Buy 380,000 300,000 08/03/2014 Buy 310,000 200,000 10/29/2013 Buy 290,000 09/17/2013 Buy 280,000 100,000 0 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price ( ─), Target price ( ▬), Not covered ( ■), Buy ( ▲), Trading Buy ( ■), Hold ( ●), Sell ( ◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Daewoo Securities, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions. Equity Ratings Distribution BuyBuyBuy Trading Buy HoldHoldHold SellSellSell 72.36% 13.57% 14.07% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of June 30, 2015) Disclosures As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding. Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies.