ENVIRONMENT SCAN 14-30 MAY 2019

CHINA (Geo-Strat, Geo-Politics & Geo-Economics) Brig RK Bhutani (Retd)

China Seeking a ‘Sphere of Influence’ in the Pacific. Chinese President Xi Jinping has told the visiting prime minister of Vanuatu, Charlot Salwai that Beijing is not seeking a sphere of influence in the Pacific Ocean island states, amid fears in Western capitals of China’s growing role in the region. He said, “We have no private interests in island countries, and do not seek a so-called sphere of influence”. Xi said Beijing was willing to deepen agricultural technology cooperation with Vanuatu and would continue to encourage Chinese companies to invest there. Vanuatu and China denied reports last year that Beijing wanted to establish a permanent military presence there.

The United States and have looked on with particular concern at China’s growing role in the Pacific; particularly in its attempt to neutralize Taiwan’s diplomatic relations with these island countries.

Six Pacific island nations officially recognise Taiwan, accounting for a third of Taipei’s diplomatic allies around the world. But they are under growing pressure from Beijing to switch allegiance as it builds influence in the region.

A senior US diplomat urged Pacific island nations not to withdraw their diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, warning that pressure from Beijing to change the self-ruled island’s international standing threatened to raise the risk of conflict. US acting assistant secretary for Southeast Asia W. Patrick Murphy made the comments in Canberra at the end of a three-day Australian visit for talks with officials in the newly re-elected government on expanding their security alliance.

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Rick Hou had promised to review the nation’s relations with Taiwan before he lost power at elections last month. Switching recognition to Beijing, the Solomons’ biggest export market, remains a live issue.

Murphy said the United States had “strong diplomatic relations” with the Solomons, and had congratulated new Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare. 2

He declined to say whether he discussed with Australian officials concerns of some security analysts that Beijing wanted to construct a deep water military base somewhere in the Pacific. Chinese militarisation in the Pacific would be as destabilising as its militarisation of disputed islands in the South China Sea, he said.

Murphy is expected to fly to Australia’s nearest neighbour, , where Prime Minister Peter O’Neill backs Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. The US and Australia have committed to redevelop a Papua New Guinea naval base on Manus Island. Murphy said the Lombrum Naval Base expansion was about “partnership with Papua New Guinea and meeting its needs”, not denying China a military presence in the poor nation of about 8 million people.

Comments. The Pacific is emerging as an area of competition between Beijing and self- ruled Taiwan, which maintains formal diplomatic ties with several island nations. China is endeavoring to isolate Taiwan diplomatically and economically by forcing the nations, which are maintaining such relations with Taiwan, to withdraw the same in lieu of economic favours from China.

(https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3012226/xi-jinping-says-china-not-after-pacific- sphere-influence) (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3011643/us-official-urges-pacific-island-nations- maintain-diplomatic

The High-stakes US-China Trade War: Strategists See ‘Game Theory’ at Work. According to ‘game theory’ experts, the US-China trade war falls into the “war of attrition” category, in which two relatively dominant players stick doggedly to their incompatible positions, each expecting the other side to fold so they can emerge the winner.

The most famous example of this kind of showdown is the First World War. But recent business examples include the confrontations between digital radio rivals Sirius and XM, social media players Face book and MySpace, and digital auctioneer’s eBay and Yahoo. After exhaustive battles costing billions of dollars, Sirius and XM agreed to a “merger of equals”, while Face book and eBay prevailed over the competition.

There is no suggestion that the current US-China showdown will devolve into military conflict, but as they were in the First World War, the stakes are huge, the costs are global, the slide from threat to action has been rapid and both sides are convinced of their moral rectitude. 3

Fuelling the US-China trade showdown is what experts term “asymmetrical information” – wherein each side knows its own strengths and weaknesses, doesn’t know its adversary’s and slides into mutually destructive behaviour convinced the other side will cave with the next threat. Trade War could slice 1 percent from China’s GDP growth.

Weapons in this battle include escalating rhetoric and threats, market restrictions and expanded tariffs, with the US most recently imposing 25 per cent tariffs on US$200 billion worth of Chinese imports and Beijing countering with up to 25 per cent tariffs on US$60 billion in American goods.

As both sides have doubled down, they must navigate what experts call “threat points” – economic and political vulnerabilities they seek to exploit in their adversary and soft-pedal on their own side:

 For Chinese President Xi Jinping, these include the political risks associated with angry farmers, factory owners, consumers and a broader economy damaged by high tariffs, as well as nervous financial markets and the cost to his leadership if he miscalculates.

 These are mirrored on Trump’s side to varying degrees, magnified by the risk that a trade-intensified recession or an apoplectic political base could derail his quest for a second term, a vulnerability Beijing has sought to exploit by targeting agriculture products in states he needs for re-election.

 But Trump faces another perilous deadline as the tariff war expands, namely Christmas. As he has run out of industrial goods to target, expanded duties are now set to hit televisions, iPhones, children’s toys and other consumer imports that affect ordinary voters more directly.

 Xi is not without his own political survival risks, despite having recently engineered an end to term limits that potentially makes him president for life.

China has no democracy, but it doesn’t mean there are no constraints. Even though he does not face voters, Xi remains vulnerable to Communist Party adversaries who can use weak economic growth and rising social instability as a cudgel against him in the opaque world of Chinese politics.

Limited criticisms may be made, but when critics unite to form a lobby group or faction, then the party is nervous. There is a great fear of ‘chaos’, or luan, in Beijing circles. 4

As the trade war with its accompanying uncertainty drags on, each side has redoubled efforts to compensate the home team so it can withstand more pain in the showdown:

 On May 11, Trump announced another US$15 billion in subsidies to US farmers, following last summer’s US$12 billion handout. But it’s not what any farmer wants. They want to sell their crops.

 China, likewise, has enacted a raft of stimulus, subsidies and liquidity measures, made easier in a state-led economic system where the government has much greater latitude to manipulate the market.

Beyond financial support, both sides have sought to boost morale so that those affected believe they are sacrificing for a bigger purpose.

Trump has repeatedly touted the “winning” strength of the US economy, extolled its ability to withstand pain better than China’s, blamed Beijing for unfair practices and denied – inaccurately – that Americans pay the cost of tariffs rather than China.

“There will be nobody left in China to do business with. Very bad for China, very good for USA! But China has taken so advantage of the US for so many years,” he said in a recent tweet.

Beijing, meanwhile, has used its compliant state media to slam US behaviour and appeal to Chinese patriotism, arguing in a recent People’s Daily editorial that national development does not depend on the US and that “super large” China will go from strength to strength under one-party rule.

The longer the trade war lasts, however, the more pain both sides inevitably feel, along with the rest of the world. The International Monetary Fund has forecast a significant ding to economic growth if the tariffs are not unwound.

And while open criticism of government policy is perilous in China, consumers and companies tend to vote with their feet and their wallets. Capital outflow from equity markets for the two weeks ending May 17 was US$2.5 billion because of the trade war, its highest level since 2015, according to the Institute of International Finance. Consumer spending in April fell to its lowest level in 16 years.

Experts say an ideal US negotiating strategy would be to outline clear and consistent expectations, make explicit the cost of reneging or not implementing any agreed-upon terms, remain consistent, give the other side sufficient time to react after each ratcheting- up of pressure, keep emotions in check and avoid embarrassing or directly confronting the other side in public, particularly given the importance of face in Chinese political tradition.

Beijing has taken a more conventional, prudent approach, experts say, by responding to Trump in measured fashion while trying to avoid looking weak domestically. China’s 5 weaknesses are less obvious, more difficult to assess and may be greater than they appear, given the opaque nature of the country’s political system.

US President Donald Trump is expected to emerge from this high-stakes US-China trade war with a face-saving deal that he will spin as a great success – but one that fails to fundamentally change China’s state control over markets, subsidies and theft of trade secrets. That is the conclusion of experts in game theory and strategic negotiation based on an analysis of the plans, tactics and pressure points of both sides. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3011353/high-stakes-us-china-showdown- hardly-game-strategists-see-game

MARITIME SECURITY & IN MODERNISATION Capt KK Agnihotri

Twin Launch of Type 052D Destroyers in China. China’s 19th and 20th Type 052D Luyang III-class guided-missile destroyers, also variously referred to as the “Chinese Aegis”, were launched at the Dalian Shipyard in North China on 10 May 2019. China now has 20 Type 052D destroyers, either in active service or being fitted out for service.

Type 052D are multipurpose surface combatants and can be deployed for a variety of tasks including anti-air, anti-surface, and anti-submarine warfare missions. They are equipped with advanced active electronically scanned array radar systems and 64 vertical launch cells. The ship carries the potent YJ-18 ASCM; and is also equipped with modern HQ-9 SAMs. It also carries CJ-10 LACM, CT-5 anti-submarine rocket, and YJ-83 anti- ship missiles in addition to medium-range SAMs. The ship can also embark two new Harbin Z-20 ASW role helicopters.

Comments: While the first ship of the class named Kunming was commissioned in PLA Navy in Mar 2014, the 19th and 20th were launched in May 19. This indicates an average build rate of four ships per year. This is becoming possible because two construction lines are concurrently running – one at Dalian and the other at Jiangnan Changxing shipyard off Shanghai.

This ships’ launch event must be seen in conjunction with another double launch of Type 055 heavy destroyers (NATO designation - Ranhai class) in Jul 2018. These vessels are China's more advanced destroyers having a displacement of more than 10,000 tons and featuring 112 vertical launch missile cells. Type 052D destroyers, along with Type 055 class will form part of future PLA Navy carrier strike groups (CSG). Chinese media reports indicate that it is expected to continue building Type 052D destroyers, and the PLA Navy may eventually have more than 30 such ships.

Another linked development relates to the decommissioning of four old Luda class destroyers – Kaifeng (109), Dalian (110), Zunyi (134) and Guilin (164) – on 17 May 19 in 6 the PLA Navy’s North Sea Fleet. This signifies increasing proportion of modern vessels in the PLA Navy’s destroyers’ mix.

Sources: https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/china-launches-19th-and-20th-type-052d-guided-missile- destroyer/; http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1149545.shtml; http://eng. chinamil.com.cn/view/2019- 05/17/content_9506235.htm

NORTH EAST Brig HS Cheema

Chinese Submarine Base in Bangladesh’s’ Coxs’ Bazar. Chinese state-owned company PTI is scheduled to begin the construction of a full-fledged and permanent submarine base in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar in the current fiscal year. The construction cost of the proposed base for keeping and operating submarines has been estimated at Tk 10,300 crore. The Chinese company has been appointed for the job through a government-to-government negotiation between Bangladesh and China. The construction of the permanent base, which would have facilities like wharfs, barracks, an ammunition depot, repairing arrangements and training provisions, is expected to be completed in 10 years by the fiscal year 2027-28. A special allocation of Tk 54 crore would be required within the outgoing fiscal year for payment of the consultancy fees for the project to be implemented by the Bangladesh Navy. Inter-Services Public Relations director Lieutenant Colonel Md Abdullah Ibn Zaid told media persons that they did not know anything about the construction of the base.

The Navy received the delivery of two submarines from China in 2016-17, which it is operating now from a makeshift base in the same district. Named as Nobojatra and Joyjatra, the submarines were procured under a G-to-G contract from China in 2013 at a reported cost of US $ 193 million after both submarines went through extensive refitting and modernization. The Navy had been persuading the government to build a permanent base since the commissioning of the Ming-class submarines in the Bay of Bengal. The government is also funding a new naval base at Rabnabad in Patuakhali that will have submarine berthing and operation facilities to ensure security of the Payra Sea Port. The implementation of the naval base project, BNS Sher-e-Bangla Patuakhali, was set to start from June 2018 to be completed in June 2021 at an estimated cost of Tk 1,081.50 crore. https://nenow.in/neighbour/chinese-submarine-base-in-bangladeshs-coxs-bazar.html

Comments: Bangladesh is spending considerable amount of money out of its limited budget on its armed forces for acquiring of arms and ammunition and creating defence infrastructure. Most of the assistance for the same is being provided by China, some of older arms & equipment is being provided free of cost. Bangladesh shares longest land and Sea borders with India. At present there is no boundary dispute among the two 7 nations. It appears China is indirectly arming Bangladesh and India needs to watch such developments carefully.

Killing of Arunachal MLA Tirong Aboh: What We Know so Far. National People’s Party (NPP) MLA TirongAboh and 10 others, including his son and security personnel, were shot dead in a militant attack at Tirap district in Arunachal Pradesh on 21 May. NSCN (IM) militants are suspected behind the attack, TheTirap, Changlang and Longding districts of Arunachal Pradesh which lie surrounded by Assam, Nagaland and Myanmar is a violence-prone area in which the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) is in force. Militants belonging to the multiple factions of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN), and, in some parts, the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) are active in these districts. The AFSPA does not apply to Arunachal as a whole. This act is feared to have been carried out by the NSCN-Isak-Muivah. Although the NSCN-IM is currently in peace talks with the Government of India, its cadres are suspected to be involved in violent acts in these districts. Tirong Aboh was the outgoing NPP MLA from Khonsa West, and also his party’s candidate for the same seat in this election. In the run-up to the polls, two political workers were attacked and killed in Longding and Tirap. Aboh had been very vocal against the militants after the killing in Tirap. According to Arunachal observers, interference in elections by the NSCN-IM is not new, but the two earlier killings, and now this massacre, is a dramatic and worrying escalation.

The history of Arunachal is unlike that of any other state in the country. The region was earlier called the North East Frontier Agency (NEFA), and after Independence, it was administrated by the Ministry of External Affairs. In 1972, NEFA became a Union Territory and was renamed Arunachal Pradesh. In 1975, the UT acquired a legislature and, on February 20, 1987, it became a state. There is no indigenous insurgency in most parts of Arunachal Pradesh. The people of the state are known to be fiercely pro-India and patriotic. A couple of militant organisations claiming to fight for the rights of the Tani people who live in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam such as the National Liberation Council of Tani Land (NLCT) and the Tani Land National Liberation Tigers (TLNLT) have no support on the ground and are all but defunct, as is the Arunachal Dragon Force (ADF), which at one time fought to create a separate state out of parts of Arunachal and Assam. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/arunachal-pradesh-mla-tirong-aboh-shot-dead-5741108/

Two Assam Rifles personnel killed in Nagaland ambush. Two security personnel were killed after suspected terrorists likely to be NSCN(K) ambushed an Assam Rifles patrol in Changlansu of Nagaland’s Mon district along the India-Myanmar border on 25 May. https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/nagaland/two-assam-rifles-personnel- killed-in-nagaland-ambush-5748649/ 8

Comments: Killing of sitting MLA along with 10 others in Arunachal Pradesh and subsequently two soldiers of Assam Rifles in Nagaland in an ambush by suspected NSCN cadres recently reminds of vulnerability of the region due to allowing NSCN cadres to have easy asses to Arms and ammunition as also it shows their ability to interfere in the affairs of neighbouring states. There is a need to relook at the accord signed between NSCN and the central Govt the contents of which are not in the public domain as well as rules of managing of rebel’s camp. It is high time that the cadres of NSCN be disarmed and they be suitably rehabilitated.

Military Chief Pardoned Soldiers Involved in Rohingya Massacre. Seven soldiers jailed by the military for killing 10 Rohingya in Rakhine State in 2017 were released as the result of a pardon from the military chief, according to a military spokesperson. The four officers and three soldiers were dismissed from the military and sentenced to 10 years with hard labor at a remote prison in April 2018 for their participation in the massacre, the military announced at the time. However, they were released in November 2018, after serving less than year, after a group of people including monks submitted a petition on their behalf to Myanmar military commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. Given the soldiers’ dutifulness during their time in the Army, and in consideration of the petition, the military chief reduced their prison sentence from 10 years to one year with hard labour in accordance with military justice. The military’s explanation came two days after the soldiers’ release was first reported by Reuters on 28 May 2019.In Myanmar, the Constitution grants the military chief the final says in questions of military justice, stating that “the decision of the Commander-in-Chief of the Defense Services is final and conclusive. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/military-chief-pardoned-soldiers-involved-rohingya-massacre.html

Comments: Myanmar took action against Army personnel for atrocities committed by them against Rohingya under international pressure and later after giving punishment mitigated their jail sentence. It clearly shows that Myanmar army was allowed to commit genocide and create situation for Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh. Under such circumstances it is unlikely that Myanmar is going to accept back the Rohingya refugees back from Bangladesh and India. This crisis is going to linger further for longer period.

JAPAN, MALDIVES, SRI LANKA Col Arvinder Singh President Trump's Visit to Japan Was a Success — for Japan1 Facing upcoming parliamentary elections and an ongoing threat from North Korea, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was able to showcase the strength of his country’s alliance with the U.S. to both domestic and foreign rivals. He also got the visual imagery he had hoped for — Trump as the first foreign leader to meet the new Emperor Naruhito, dining and playing golf with Abe and visiting a Japanese helicopter carrier that is being converted so it can

1http://time.com/5597211/donald-trump-japan-visit-analysis 9 handle F-35B short-take off-and-landing jet fighters that Lockheed Martin hopes to sell. From Japan’s point-of-view, Abe got everything he wanted out of this visit. Trump pushed trade talks down the road beyond Japan’s upcoming parliamentary elections, and probably far beyond that. Trump had threatened to impose tariffs on Japanese cars and car parts on the grounds that U.S. reliance on Japan’s auto industry — the main engine of its export-driven economy — is a national security threat. The most evident gap between the two leaders, however, was on North Korea’s recent short-range missile tests, which Trump dismissed and Abe called a violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Comments. During a carefully scripted four-day visit to Japan, Trump contradicted his national security adviser and other top officials on two key issues, insisting that recent North Korean missile tests did not violate United Nations resolutions and saying he did not seek regime change in Iran, which Bolton has championed for years. Trump wants to put all the other trade issues, including Japan, Mexico and Canada, on hold until he gets a deal with China. He wants to maintain at least a facade of a unified stance.

Japan’s deal to buy F-35 Lightning jets from US ‘may fuel arms race with China in region2Japan’s decision to buy 105 F-35 Lightning jet fighters from the United States will greatly expand Japan’s capabilities in the South China Sea but may further fuel the arms race in Asia. The deal, first announced in December, was confirmed during US President Donald Trump’s four-day state visit to Japan. So far about a dozen US allies have placed orders for the F-35. The Australian government has budgeted US$17 billion for 72 of the jets and South Korea has ordered 40 F-35As and likely to buy another 20 of the fighters. Comments. The F-35 deal is likely to help Japan reassert its role as a leading security player, but also present a new challenge to China’s People’s Liberation Army, which has extended its clout in the Indo-Pacific region in the recent years. Washington and Tokyo have long been wary of Beijing’s military expansion, with Japan announcing a new foreign policy strategy of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” three years ago to further promote the “rule of law, freedom of navigation and free trade”. Japan does not face the South China Sea but views it as strategically important due to its role as a vital shipping lane. The latest F-35 deal will also put further pressure on China to accelerate and improve its J-20 development programme which suffered from engine problem in 2017. Sri Lanka, Japan, India sign deal to develop East Container Terminal at Colombo Port3 Sri Lanka, Japan and India signed an agreement to jointly develop the East Container Terminal at the Colombo Port. The joint initiative is estimated to cost between $500 million and $700 million. The signing of the Memorandum of Cooperation (MoC) is significant, given that the countries had been negotiating the deal since last year, with little success. As per the agreement signed the Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA) retains 100% ownership of the East Container Terminal (ECT), while the Terminal Operations Company, conducting its operations, is jointly owned. Sri Lanka will hold a 51 per cent-stake in the project and the joint venture partners will retain 49%. The ECT is located some 3 km away from the China-backed international financial city, known popularly as “port city”, being built on

2https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy

3https://www.thehindu.com/news 10 reclaimed land on Colombo’s sea front.“Japan is likely to provide a 40-year soft loan with a 0.1 percent interest rate. This is one of the best loan terms Sri Lanka has obtained.

Comments. Details of India’s contribution to the initiative are awaited, but New Delhi’s interest in partnering the project is well known. Over 70 per cent of the transshipment business at the strategically located ECT is linked to India. However, last year, India’s possible role in developing the terminal had become a major flashpoint within the government. President Maithripala Sirisena had opposed any Indian involvement in the project, as roping in foreign actors for developing “national assets” remains a politically sensitive call in the island, especially among nationalist trade unions. Mr Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had a heated argument on the matter during a cabinet meeting in October 2018, with the PM apparently more inclined towards allowing Indian participation. While Japan had been part of negotiations even last year, the project assumed a predominantly ‘Sri Lanka-India’ dimension, especially in the local media. Japan has been a long-standing partner of Sri Lanka, and one of Sri Lanka’s biggest donors in the past decades. Japan also helped develop of the Jaya Container Terminal at the Colombo Port, supporting its operations since the 1980s. The specific terms of the agreement to jointly develop the ECT will soon be finalized at a joint working group meeting.

India issues updated travel advisory for Sri Lanka, asks citizens to be vigilant4India issued an updated travel advisory for Sri Lanka, saying that the security situation was gradually returning to normal in the island nation but Indian nationals travelling there need to be careful and vigilant. The government had last month issued an advisory calling upon Indian nationals intending not to undertake non-essential travel to Sri Lanka in view of the existing security situation following the terror attacks on April 21. Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena urged foreign envoys to help his government in removing travel restrictions imposed on tourists following the Easter Sunday attacks, which claimed over 250 lives and left hundreds of others injured. The President last week extended the Emergency in Sri Lanka by a month.

Comments. The Emergency was imposed immediately after the April 21 bombings by Islamist militants. In the aftermath of attacks, anti-Muslim violence broke out in the country. Homes and shops of Muslims as well as mosques were targeted in the riots that claimed one life. The police and the military now say a "peaceful situation was now prevailing in the country" after they arrested almost all those involved in the attacks. The troops and police, however, remain on alert across the island. The Emergency was extended due to search operations conducted by the military. As many as 89 suspects had been arrested for their alleged links with the bombings.

Big diplomatic boost for govt 2.0; Maldives invites PM Modi to Address Parliament5 The Maldives invited PM Narendra Modi to address the Parliament during his

4https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/india

5https://www.timesnownews.com/india 11 upcoming visit to the South Asian country on June 7-8. The PM will visit the Maldives in his first bilateral visit post assuming office for the second term. All 80 members present in the Parliament voted in favor of the resolution inviting the Indian Prime Minister to deliver a speech at the House and said that it would be an honor to have an influential leader like Modi addressing the Parliament. Comments. The Prime Minister had visited the Maldives in November 2018 to attend the oath-taking ceremony of President , after he trounced Abdulla Yameen in the Presidential Elections. The Maldivian President had visited India in December. Maldives ex-president elected parliament speaker6 Maldives’ parliament has overwhelmingly voted the country’s first democratically elected president as the speaker of the house. Mohamed Nasheed received 67 votes from among 87 members. The speaker also has a role in the Judicial Services Commission that regulates the Supreme Court, and is third in line should the positions of the president and vice president become vacant.

Comments. President Solih’s Maldivian Democratic Party has swept the parliamentary elections, winning 65 out of 87 seats. The elections paved the way for Nasheed’s return home after years in exile. Nasheed, a former pro-democracy activist was elected president of the Indian Ocean archipelago in 2008, ending a 30-year autocratic government. He resigned in 2012 amid public upheaval over his decision to arrest a senior judge. He lost the 2013 presidential election to Yameen, and was later jailed over the judge’s arrest following a trial criticized for due process violations. He was granted asylum in Britain when he traveled there for medical treatment. Nasheed and other politicians jailed under Yameen’s government were released after Solih was elected to office while others returned from exile. U.S. Believes Russia Is Conducting Low-Level Nuclear Tests7 The US believes Russia may be conducting low-level nuclear testing in violation of a moratorium on such tests, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency said at an arms control forum at the Hudson Institute. Comments. Negotiated in the 1990s, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) enjoys wide global support but must be ratified by eight more nuclear technology states — among them Israel, Iran, Egypt and the United States — to come into force. Russia ratified the treaty in 2000. Russia Offers to Manufacture MiG-35 Jet Jointly with India8 Russia has offered to manufacture MiG-35 4++ generation multirole fighter jointly with India along with Transfer of Technology, MiG Corporation of Russia said. 'MiG' is participating in tender process for supply of aircraft to the IAF through Rosoboronexport. The Corporation is offering its newest lightweight Russian fighter MiG-35, in accordance with 'Make-in-India' program requirements". They are about to finalize an agreement with Indian industrial partner. At 6https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific

7https://www.themoscowtimes.com

8https://www.defenseworld.net/news/24838 12 the same time, are having negotiations with a wide range of industrial enterprises to elaborate a unique and advantageous offer to participate with in the IAF tender."

Comments. Russia is open to the idea of setting up required infrastructure in India, to provide maintenance and support to the jets through their whole life-cycle. The proposed contract will include offset agreement, sharing modern technologies as well as training of staff.

Russia launches new icebreaker as country focuses on economic potential of the Arctic9 Russia rolled out a new nuclear-powered icebreaker as it signals its further efforts to take advantage of the Arctic’s economic potential. The ship, the Ural, will be capable of breaking through ice up to three-meters thick. A total of three new icebreakers are being constructed and will be the world’s largest icebreakers. One of the ships was launched in 2016 for exploration of the Northern Sea Route. Besides breaking ice for convoys in the Arctic, the ships will help ensure transportation of hydrocarbons from the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas to the Asia Pacific market. The 173-metre long vessel has a new and improved reactor and a new turbine system so it can operate over its 40-year- lifespan. Comments. Russia is already touting the ship’s capabilities as a way to access the Northern Sea Route or NSR. Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered India access to the NSR that connects Europe with the Pacific Rim. Putin has said that by 2035 Russia expects to operate 13 heavy icebreakers. Nine of those would be nuclear- powered. President Vladimir Putin said in April that Russia was stepping up construction of icebreakers with the aim of significantly boosting freight traffic along its Arctic coast. The Arctic holds oil and gas reserves equivalent to 412 billion barrels of oil, about 22% of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas. Moscow hopes the route which runs from Murmansk to the Bering Strait near Alaska could take off as it cuts sea transport times from Asia to Europe. TELECOM & IT Brig Navjot Singh Bedi

5G Spectrum Auction in India. The regulators in some countries like US, Australia, Italy, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia and others have already formulated policies and initiated spectrum auctions for 5G roll out in their respective nations. For 5G to be rolled out in India, the first necessary step is for DoT to commence the auction the 5G spectrum. Before that the experimental license by DoT will need to be issued. The government expects to complete processes for 5G spectrum auction by August 2019. The three equipment vendors who have been approved by the DoT panel for participating in the trial are Samsung, Nokia and Ericsson. Likely pairing up of Telcos with the equipment vendors for the trial is that Reliance Jio is likely to partner with Samsung, Nokia with Airtel and Vodafone Idea Ltd with Ericsson. Tech Mahindra established a strategic partnership with Intel on a wide range of topics spanning across Virtualisation of RAN (Radio Access Network), Cloud native 5G Core and on Edge Computing. Though Tech Mahindra is currently not working with any Indian telecom operator on 5G, it is engaged in detailed Board room discussions with all top Telcos in the nation. The IT firm is working with many Telcos across North America, UK, 9https://ottawacitizen.com/news 13

Germany, Asia-pacific Australia New Zealand and North Asia regions on 5G launch and digitalisation programs. The firm is collaborating with Intel to maximise the benefits of their technology for 5G networks, and we are also working on developing 5G use cases for specific industry verticals in the CoE,” he said. Comments. Spectrum is the lifeblood of any wireless network and everything else will be gated on the spectrum. For 5G, globally regulators have been licensing mid-band (3.5GHz) and in some countries mm Wave (mille meter Wave) spectrum bands as well. The telecom industry needs time to develop India-specific use cases for the next- generation technology and the partnership of established leading telcos and a leading IT firm in these field augers well for the development and roll out of 5G in India. (https://telecomtalk.info/dot-5g-spectrum-auction- india/197158/andhttps://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/5g-spectrum-trial- begins-next-month-for-3-months/69223222) U.S Ban on Huawei. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies Co Ltd, takes orders from Beijing, Huawei is an instrument of the Chinese government and that they're deeply connected. The U.S. Commerce Department had last week added Huawei Technologies and 70 affiliates to its so-called “Entity List”. The move effectively bans Huawei from buying parts and components from U.S. companies without U.S. government approval. Subsequently Alphabet Inc's Google also decided to suspend business with the world’s second-largest handset maker. For new Huawei devices, Google will stop providing Huawei with access, technical support, and collaboration involving its proprietary apps and services going forward. Huawei has said it will continue to sell Android-based smart phones from its existing stocks in India and support the ones that are in use. The firm said it will continue to provide security updates and after-sales services to all existing Huawei and Honor smart phone and tablet products, covering those that have been sold and that are still in stock globally. Huawei stated that they will continue to build a safe and sustainable software ecosystem, in order to provide the best experience for all users globally. Huawei could look at using Android Open Source Project (AOSP) with a third-party marketplace, but that marketplace won’t have millions of apps, and it won’t be as secure as Google, besides compatibility of apps with devices will also be a challenge. However, the brand image for Huawei could hurt significantly if the OS and app part is incomplete in India. Comments. Huawei currently holds around 4.5% of the overall India smart phone market and it’s handset market share hovers around 3.5% in India. Huawei’s India smart phone business is set for a massive impact as Alphabet Inc's Google decided to suspend business with it as a smart phone is as good as the apps / features loaded on it. Due to the Google business suspension, Huawei will not just lose access to the Android operating system, but will also lose access to GMS or Google Media Services which is a collection of Google applications like Maps, Gmail and access to Play Store. GMS is not a part of the AOSP. While Huawei is expected to continue selling handsets from the existing stock in India, it is likely that it will be forced to suspend the rollout of new devices from both of its handset brands - Huawei and Honor, in India in the short term and wait for the Chinese government to intervene to resolve the trade issue with the US government. It will be interesting to see how very popular apps like WhatsApp, Office365, Face book, Netflix, etc, will react as logically this US order extends to them as well. Thus if Huawei has to remain in the smart phone business, it has to build the entire stack on its own, which is not challenging for a company like Huawei, but consumer acceptability beyond 14

China markets would be a concern. This would means creating two parallel Smartphone ecosystems which might not be interoperable. (https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/u-s-s-pompeo-says-huawei-an- instrument-of-chinese-government-fbn/69561167 and, https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/huawei-honor-sales-set-for-a- massive-impact-in-india-analysts/69409781) India’s Stand on inclusion of Huawei for 5G Trials. DoT is yet to take a call on the Chinese company Huawei, as to whether it will be part of the 5G trial for any telecom services company in India. Recently, a group headed by Director IIT Kanpur, Professor Abhay Karandikar has submitted its views on kick starting the 5G-based field trials in India. The DoT said that the recommendations are currently being evaluated by the department. Huawei's has already stockpiled enough inventory to keep its 4G equipment supplies to local mobile phone companies going around a year and hence it’s India telecom operator business may not see any major impact due to the recent US ban . The US ban will however slow down business for the Chinese company. Intel, Qualcomm, and Broadcom, three of the world’s leading chip designers and suppliers, who are reported to have suspended shipments to Huawei, so have memory chip makers Micron Technology and Western Digital. COAI has already sought clarity from the DoT on whether they should order 5G equipment from Chinese company Huawei or not, as millions of dollars will be at stake. DoT is yet to give any directions to Indian carriers on the same. Comments. The upcoming 5G trials are vendor neutral. A lot of testing needs to be done and India needs to test various use cases. It’s very different from 4G which was a matured technology when India started to adopt it. Huawei is heavily dependent on semiconductor products from a number of US companies, for it’s telecom equipment, but the Trump administration ban means the Chinese company can't source components from these firms for both wireless and wire line networks. Both Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel use Huawei’s 4G gear in several circles, besides those from Sweden’s Ericsson, Finland’s Nokia and China’s ZTE. Reliance Jio uses 4G equipment from Samsung. Huawei had recently bagged a contract from Vodafone Idea to provide 4G gear for network modernisation and expansion in seven circles. It is currently competing for VIL’s core and transport network contracts. While telcos will continue their 4G expansion, the recent developments will force Indian telcos to start their risk assessment on Chinese gear makers. Back in China, Huawei had anticipated the move and started to work on a backup strategy eight months back to reduce the impact of the US ban. Huawei’s backup strategy comprises stockpiling of components, using third-party vendors and in-house development of components and chips. The strategy will allow Huawei to buy time and keep the supply chain running. Huawei founder and CEO Ren Zhengfei said that Huawei would continue to develop its own components to reduce its dependence on outside suppliers. (https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/us-ban-unlikely-to-impact-huaweis- india-telecom-business-india-may-allow-it-for-5g-field-trials/69410929).

SCO Air Cmde T Chand (Retd) 15

Foreign Ministers Meeting. Meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was held on 22 May 2019 at Bishkek. The meeting was attended by foreign ministers of all eight members of the SCO (China, Russia, India Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan), SCO Secretary-General and Director of the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) Executive Committee. The ministers approved in principle the drafts of the forthcoming Bishkek Declaration by the Heads of State of the SCO Member States and the Press Release on the Results of the SCO Heads of State Council Meeting10. The ministers discussed all important contemporary international issues such as Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, BRI and WTO etc.

The ministers confirmed the importance of preserving and fulfilling the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian nuclear programme and urged all participants to strictly abide by their commitments to ensure its full and effective implementation. The ministers spoke positively about the results of the regular session of the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group and decided to submit for consideration by the heads of state a proposal to sign a roadmap for further action of the Contact Group. The ministers reaffirmed the common position of the SCO member states on the need to settle the situation in Syria by way of dialogue based on its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. They believe that cooperation in the Astana format has created the necessary conditions for implementing UN Security Council. Confirming their support for China's Belt and Road Initiative, the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan welcomed the results of the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF) held in Beijing on 25-27 April 2019. They noted the cooperation on implementing this project, including the alignment of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Belt and Road Initiative. The ministers Emphasised that the WTO remains the key universal venue for discussing the multilateral trade agenda and they supported joint resistance to any manifestations of unilateral protectionism and active cooperation with a view to forming a global economy of a new type and strengthening the multilateral trade system that is inclusive, transparent, non- discriminatory and based on rules.

Chairman of SCO’s Heads of State council and President of Kyrgyzstan was specially invited to attend the swearing in ceremony of Mr. Modi on 30 Jul 2019. Earlier Defence Minister and now External Affairs Minister have actively participated in the SCO confabulations. PM Modi would be attending the SCO Heads of State Meeting later this month and hold important meetings with Mr. Putin and Mr. Jinping on the sidelines. SCO is indeed gaining ground in India’s world view.

10Press release on the SCO Council of Foreign Ministers meeting http://eng.sectsco.org/news/20190522/543257.html