Electrify Europe: China’s E-Mobility is Moving from the Introduction Phase to the Development Period Sarah Fairhurst Global EV outlook 2017 © OECD/IEA 2017 Two million and counting
EV deployment
This section reviews the latest developments in new registrations and the stock of EVs, looking primarily at electric cars and focusing on the developments that took place in 2016 as well as the trends since 2010. Stock and sales figures are assessed against policy support schemes and Page | 12 international, national or private commitments on EV deployment for the 2020, 2025 and 2030 time horizons (depending on national settings). EV deployment is also assessed against the ambition of the EV30@30 campaign. Electric cars
Market evolution Registrations of electric cars hit a new record in 2016, with over 750 thousand sales worldwide. However, sales for 2016 showed a slowdown in the market growth rate compared with previous yWhyears t oChina? 40%, making 2016 the first year since 2010 that year-on-year electric car sales growth fell below 50%. Despite the decline, maintaining the 2016 rate of growth over the following years w•illChina still a lislo leadingw for m theee tworlding th ine sEVale saless and – stwithock aroundobject ivhalfes ooff thethe sales2DS f globallyor 2025 in. 2016
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U Sources: IEA analysis based on EVI country submissions, complemented by EAFO (2017a), IHS Polk (2016), MarkLines (2017), ACEA (2017a, 2017b) aWhat’snd EEA (2 driving017). this, and will it continue as subsidies are wound back? Key point: The two main electric car markets are China and the United States. Six countries reached EV market shares o1f mSource:ore tIEAha Globaln 1 %EV iOutlookn 20 201716: Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, France, the United Kingdom and China. China was by far the largest electric car market in 2016, with 336 thousand new electric cars registered. Electric car sales in China were more than double the amount in the United States, where 2016 electric car registrations rebounded to 160 thousand units after a slight drop in the previous year (Figure 5). European countries accounted for 215 thousand electric car sales.11 Both globally and in the European Union, the electric car market is still concentrated in a limited number of countries. In Europe, most of the electric cars sold in 2016 were registered in just six countries: Norway, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. Globally, 95% of electric car sales are taking place in just ten countries: China, the United States, Japan, Canada and the six leading European countries.
11 In this case, European countries include all the countries geographically located in Europe that report data to the EVI and the EAFO (see Figure 4).
What’s happening behind the headlines?
2 In short – a LOT of growth
China Surpassed the U.S. in 2015 Total Sales Targets 6 Million Units 900 2015 000 Units 5 800 5 2020 NEV Production NEV Sales US NEV Sales 700 4 600 Surpass the U.S. 3 500 3 400 2 300 2 1.5 200 1 1 1 0.5 0.5 100 N/A N/A 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 China Germany US France Japan
NEV Market Shares in the Chinese Auto Market Electric Vehicle in the Chinese NEV Market 45% 86% 40% Expecting higher market 40% 84% penetration of EVs 35% 82% 30% 80% 25% 78% 20% 76% 15% 15% 74% 10% 10% 8% 72% 5% 1.40% 2.30% 70% 0% 68% 2016 2017 2019 E 2020 E 2025 E 2030 E 2015 2016 2017
3 Source: TLG Analysis, EV Volumes, National Development and Reform Commission, People’s Daily, JRJ, Sohu, Auto China More than 20 million sales by 2030 with China leading the game
Sales from 2016 to 2030 Shares of the Global Market in 2030 25 Million units
20 Japan, 3% Others, 15 12% China, US, 39% 10 20%
Europe 5 , 26%
0 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 China Europe US Japan Others
In this presentation we are going to take a deeper dive into the Chinese EV market, from our viewpoint right next door in HK (And yes, it helps to have staff who can read the Chinese policies in their native language!)
4 Source: TLG Analysis, BNEF, EVVolumes But why???
• Drivers of EV in China are not the same as Europe
• Most Chinese consumers show little interest in global environmental issues - they want a car
• Chinese Government cares about air pollution – Sox, nox and particulates
• But importantly, they also care a about oil security and EV policy is one part of the strategy to tackle reliance on imported oil products – Vehicles in China consume 1/3 of the crude oil – Increasing dependency on foreign oil
Dependency on foreign oil ratio (increasing) 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% No. 1 crude oil importer 20.0% Dependency 10.0% surpassed the U.S. 0.0%
5 Note: Dependency on foreign oil ratio is the percentage of crude oil import out of total consumption Source: CNPC But when you think about China… it’s a bit like assuming “Europe” is one country: Different regions are moving at very different speeds
Charging Facilities by Province in 2017 Most Sales are Concentrated by the Major Producers
Qinghai Heilongjiang Guizhou Hainan Second-tier markets will Guanxi be the main growth of Gansu Jiangxi the future Changchun Yunnan Beijing • FAW Group Liaoning • Beijing Hyundai Hubei • BMW (China) Henan • BAIC Motor Shanxi • BJEV Sichuan • Tesla Motors Chongqing Shanxi Shandong Fujian • BYD • Rongcheng huatai Shanxi Jiangsu Hubei • BJEV Tianjin Hubei Anhui• BAIC Motor Shanghai Zhejiang • Dongfeng • Chery • SAIC Motor Hebei Chongqing • JAC Motors Anhui Public Pole Personal Pole • Chang’an Zhejiang Shandong Hunan • Haoqing Jiangsu • Haima • Geely Shanghai • Jiangnan Guangdong Guangzhou Beijing • Guangzhou Automobile Group 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 • BAIC Group • BYD First-tier market invest much more in the public infrastructures 6 Source: TLG Analysis, EVCIPA, OFweek Government support still plays a significant role, and it varies by location
Electric Vehicle (EV) Vs. Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle • In many cities you must compete for a (PHEV) Market Shares by Sales in Top Ten Cities license plate to get a car
70000 EV • In Beijing, the available quota for a 60000 Car License Plate Quota in Place PHEV 50000 conventional car is 843 people per No Plate Restriction EV plate. For an EV, it’s 3.5. 40000 PHEV 30000 20000 • This drives popularity of Electric 10000 Vehicles (EVs): 0 – EVs generally receive more subsidies than plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) – In Beijing, only EVs receive subsidies The majority of the top ten cities (by NEV – In Shanghai, PHEVs are more popular sales) have vehicle license plate quotas since small PHEVs receive extra subsidies The industry projects that EVs will continue the dominancy as technologies advance; however, with heavy government support, it’s yet too early to tell if the market actually prefers Electric Vehicles (EVs)
7 Source: OFweek Chinese NEV buyers have a strong preference for smaller cars
A00 A0 • A00: Wheelbase 2-2.2m • Engine Capacity <1.0 L • A0: Wheelbase 2.3-2.45m • Engine Capacity 1-1.6L • A: Wheelbase 2.45-2.65m • Engine Capacity 1.6-2.0L • B: Wheelbase 2.6-2.75m • Engine Capacity 1.8-2.4L • C: Wheelbase 2.7-2.8m • Engine Capacity 2-3.0L • D: Wheelbase 2.8m+ • Engine Capacity >3.0L
C D
8 Image source: Vladimir Kramin/123rf.com, lex Varlakov/123rf.com, rawpixel/123rf.com And these differences in car preference are unlikely to change because changes in subsidy regimes are also supporting a drive to small cars
Global Market Shares in 2017 Electric Vehicle Market Shares in China
100% C C 100% B B 90% 90% A 80% 70% 80% A A0 60% Look at the blues! 70% 50% 60% 40% 50% A0 30% 20% 40%
10% 30% A00
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US Japan Norway Germany UK France Europe Asia Total China 20% A00
10%
A00 A0 A B C Others A0 A B C D 0% 2015 2016
Electric Vehicles Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
9 Source: TLG Analysis, D1EV, CPCA But with reducing subsidies we see more personal purchases that are less policy-driven and more market-reflective
Company Vs. Personal Purchase by Sales in Top Ten Cities
70000 Company 60000 Car License Plate Quota in Place Personal 50000 Company No Plate Restriction 40000 Personal
30000
20000
10000
0 Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Tianjin Hangzhou Hefei Guangzhou Chongqing Qingdao Changsha
The growth of personal purchases shows the general public is accepting the concept of NEVs
10 Source: OFweek A consensus market projection sees the growth continuing beyond subsidies, but with more innovation and increasingly cost competitive products
Projection of NEV Passenger Vehicles 2018-2030
2000 60% NEV Passenger Vehicle Sales NEV Market Share of PassenverPassenger CehiclesVehicles 50% 1500 40% Introduction Period Development Period 1000 (below 10% market share) 30% 20% 500 10% 0 0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2017-2020 2021-2030 2030 • Policy-driven • More innovative products coming only • Planned NEV market share: • 2020 passenger vehicle • Decreasing cost--competitive with 40% annual sales target :1.8 conventional vehicles by 2021-2022, • Battery cost: 30% of current million echoing the full phase out of fiscal cost – Industry projection: highly subsidies by 2021, e.g. battery cost: • Driving range: 500 km+ feasible – Twelfth five-year annual plan target: 2 • Reduced charging time RMB/kWh • Other accessories: 5G, self- driving etc. – Thirteenth five-year annual plan target: < 1 RMB/kWh (by 2020) with higher energy density
11 Source: TLG Analysis, Ways The Government is continuing to support the EV industry, but is moving away from direct fiscal incentives
New Dual-Credit Higher standards to Scheme and Average promote R&D Fuel Consumption (CAFC)
Reduction and More reduction on gradual elimination of plug-in hybrids fiscal support
More versatile privileges
12 For example: Government policies force manufacturers to match conventional car production with EV production
• A New Dual-Credit Scheme and Average Fuel Consumption (CAFC) Regulation has been introduced
• This is a requirement for car manufacturers which governs how many EV’s they must produce per production of conventional vehicles
• The calculation of are based on: – Electric range – Energy efficiency – Rated power of fuel cell systems
• Put simply, if you produce vehicles with better range and higher efficiency, you need to producer fewer of them to match the conventional production
• Also allows companies to trade or transfer credits among each other: – More concentrated with top manufactures which have the ability to produce high performance NEVs and trade credits
Calculation examples in the back-up slides (Ask me during Q&A!)
13 Source: Xinhua, OFweek Subsidies are being directed to encourage R&D and improve standards; and moving towards pure EV and away from hybrids
One of the examples: changes in the NEV bus sector from 2017 to 2018
Type Year State Subsidy State Subsidy Adjusting Factors Max Subsidy (000 RMB) (RMB/kWh)
System Energy Density (Wh/kg) 6
EV w/t 2018 2100 0.8 1 1.1 40 80 130 Fast 2017 3000 0.8 1 1.4 60 120 200 charge Larger reduction on PHEV: Gas Saving Level • Strengthening the EV market as the industry always intends to 60-65% 65-70% 70%+ 22 45 75 2018 1500 0.8 1 1.1 PHEV 40-45% 45-60% 60%+ 45 90 150
2017 3000 0.8 1 1.2
14 Source: TLG Analysis, EV partner Another example is driving range – again showing pushing the boundary of standards
• Improvement of subsidy distribution to promote technology improvement – E.g. More categories to encourage longer driving range
Driving 2017 2018 Range Subsidy Subsidy Change (km) (000 RMB) (000 RMB)
100-150 -100% 20 Higher 0 150-200 Threshold 15 -58.3% 36 200-250 24 -33.3%
250-300 34 -22.7%
300-400 44 45 2.3% >400 50 13.7%
15 Source: Xinhua, OFweek This changing Government support has a greater impact on purchasers of smaller (cheaper) vehicles because these incentives are less relevant for rich buyers
1. Exemption of purchase tax from Dec. 2017
2. Special NEV plate • Toll exemptions • Elimination of drivable date restrictions • Parking discounts • Special entrance permits (logistic vehicles)
Image source: sorax/123rf.com 3. Lower down-payment requirements from 2018
Conventional NEV Self-use Commercial Self-use Commercial Second hand
20% 30% 15% 25% 30%
16 Source: EV partner The changes are having impacts across the board
• The changing subsidy regimes are meaning that more private sector buyers are looking at EV’s
• The incentives mean more to less affluent consumers, which influences the type of cars they buy – Typically smaller, cheaper passenger cars
• Richer consumers are more interested in performance – Which is driving changes in the battery market, as higher performance requires ternary batteries
• And the whole value chain is moving more towards local products – Already most of the engines and controllers are local
• However, charging facilities remain a limitation – they are poor quality insufficient in number – but this is also changing
• And as with all things China, fraud is always an issue!
Let’s look at these in more detail
17 The battle of the batteries – changes in car subsidies are also changing the demand for different types of batteries
Battery Market Shares in China Ternary Battery Market Breakdowns
100% Bus and Coach, 0.20% 90% 80% PHEV, 14% 70% Special 60% Purpose, 35% 50% Passenger Use, 65% 40% EV, 86% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2015 2016 2017 2019 E 2020 E Ternary LitiumLithium iron Iron phosphate Phosphate OtheraOther Ternary: Higher energy density = higher • Before 2017, ternary not allowed on bus and coach: low stability + poor performance performance at higher temperature Lithium Iron Phosphate: Safer and long • Ternary was suspended from the State NEV Recommended List from cycle time Jan. to Dec. 2016 by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology • Now the technologies have advanced!
With growing smaller electric vehicle sales, requirements on energy density and driving distance, ternary battery is expected to dominate the market
18 Source: TLG Analysis, NBD, OFweek The EV car market is also driving growth in the electric motor and motor’s controller market, but most of this is coming solely from Chinese local players
• 9/10 Chinese Electric Motor Top Ten Players Motor’s Controller Top Ten Players brands • 1/10 JV brand BYD • Because top BYD NEV manufacturers Others Others have vertically integrated production lines BYEV BYEV and local Hangzhou brands are Jieneng UAES Zotye Yutong Shanghai easier to Jingjin Motor Shanghai Dianqudong DianqudongYong Kang Si UAES coordinate with Shangdong Ke Ruo Zotye Anhui Jee Deyang JMEV Anhui Jee Jingjin Motor Shangdong Deyang Note: The names of Vehicle manufacturers are colored in red
Electric Motor and Motor’s Controller Market Size
140 Billion RMB 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E 2020 E 2021 E 2022 E 2023 E 19 Source: TLG Analysis, Qianzhan Research Charging facilities are below par – but growing and improving
Charging Facility Growth Charging Facility by Province in 2017
Qinghai 250000 49% Heilongjiang By 2020, China plans to build Guizhou 200000 1.2 centralized charging Hainan 188% Guanxi stations and 480 charging 150000 Gansu poles to accommodate 5 Jiangxi million NEVs 100000 Yunnan 59% Liaoning Uneven development from 50000 37% Hubei 28% province to province 160% Henan 506% 0 Shanxi 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sichuan Chongqing Fujian Shanxi Still large growth potential despite China owns the most Hubei charging poles Tianjin Zhejiang AC Pole The car to pole ratio is only 3.8:1 by 2017 Hebei Anhui DC Pole Shandong Proper planning and maintenance are needed AC+DC Pole Jiangsu • The current utilization of public charging poles has not Shanghai even reached 15% since users prefer private poles Guangdong • Most of the charging poles only last up to 3 yrs Beijing Source: EVCIPA0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
20 Source: TLG Analysis. EVCIPA, NBD Barriers: fraud is still prevalent …
• Short on quality • Example: Using smaller batteries in production for subsidies that are Main driving range based manufacturer frauds • Inflated sales • Example: Selling vehicles back to manufactures’ rental companies to boost sales for subsidies that are quantity based
• Phase-down of fiscal incentives • 20% reduction in 2017-2018 Actions taken • 50% reduction in 2019-2020 by the • Full phase-out by 2020 government • Tightened technical requirements • Robust anti-fraud enforcement
21 To date, there have been opportunities for manufacturers from a wide range of countries, but this may be changing
Passenger* NEV Market Shares in the Chinese NEV Market
France, France, • Foreign brands ➔ higher end consumers 100% 2.6% 1.8% • High import tariff and, Korea, Korea, 4.6% • Market image 90% 7.4% US, • Foreign brands tend to compete on US, 12.3% quality over price 12.2% 80% • Chinese brands target at lower end Japan, Japan, clients who are attracted by subsidies, 70% 17.0% 15.6% elimination or reduction of car plate and 60% various city driving restriction Germany, Germany, • Leaving very little market competition 50% 18.5% 19.6% for vehicles priced between 33,000 and 47,000 EUR (mid price range) 40% • Opportunity 30% • China will cut import tariff on vehicles (from China, China, 20% 43.2% 43.9% current 20%, for trucks, and 25%, for passenger cars less than 9 seats, to 15%) and 10% auto parts from July 1st, 2018
0% 2016 2017 *Passenger cars (for private use) reflect the market better as sales of 22 other car types are more policy driven Source: Sohu, Ministry of Finance Opportunity: strong growth (but not really for overseas manufacturers except in the high end of the market)
Passenger and commercial NEVs are expected to continue their performances
700 600% Sales Passenger Commercial Passenger Growth Comemercial Growth 000 Units 600 500% 500 400% 400 300% 300 200% 200
100 100%
0 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 • Passenger NEVs will remain the dominancy
• In 2017, market shares by sales: – Passenger: (annual sales): • Electric Vehicles: 11% SUV, 89% regular vehicle • Plug- in Hybrid Electric Vehicles: 37% SUV, 63% regular vehicle – Commercial (total accumulated sales): • 87% cargo vehicle, 13% bus and coach
23 Source: TLG Analysis, EV Partner, China Power, OFweek Don’t forget about the dark horse—special purpose NEVs
Passenger cars Commercial vehicles Top Producers of Special Purpose Electric Vehicles (private cars) (buses) 45 2016 Sales logistic vehicles 40 2017 ☺ 35 (95% of all special purpose Electric Vehicles in 2017) 30 Competition is not as ferocious 25 20 Fast Growth 15 especially with the expansion of online shopping delivery service 10 5 Sales Growth 0
Online shopping: 50%+ sales volume growth in the recent 5 years
450 1200% Sales 1074% 400 Top Producers in 2017 400 000 Units Low Entry Barrier 1000% 350 300 300 800% Dongfeng Low entry barrier 250 Others 200 600% 200 154 150 400% NAC Xinchufeng Saic Maxus 100 61 153% Kissun 103% 48 200% Changhe Auto 50% Auto 50 7% 27% 30% 33% 2 4 Best Bus 0 0% Dayun Motor 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (a) 2020 (a) Newlongma Geely Najing Gold Dragon Chenggong Zhongtong 24 CNEV Source: TLG Analysis, Cvworld, OFweek Auto Chery Bus EV’s are becoming consumer driven – and this is what the consumers want
70% consumers need to travel Shorter Charging Advanced Driver Assistance ~40km on weekdays, ~26km on System (ADAS) weekends Time
53%+ owners and 73% potential 70% consumers expect the range buyers: Up to 4hrs regular Parking Assistance to be 350km charging 84% owners and 61% potential Quietness with high energy buyers: Maximum fast charging density Market Change time < 1hr
More high-end options other than Economical High-Tech Features Tesla
Very little market competition for 49% owners: Autonomous vehicles priced between 33,000 Lower maintenance costs driving level 3 (eyes off) and 47,000 EUR
Environmental 32% owners: Autonomous Sharing Economy Friendly driving level 2 (hands off)
45% current NEV owners would 68% potential buyers: Both 65% of population would use purchase another NEV autonomous driving level 2 and 3 self-driving car-sharing services
25 Notes: Percentages are based on KPMG China and Auto Foresight’s survey of 220 owners (100) and potential owners (120) of NEV in China. 8% of the respondents are 30-35 years old. Survey performed in 2017 Source: TLG analysis, KPMG, OFweek, In summary
• EV policy is driven by a need for lower air pollution and a diversification away from oil for security of supply reasons
• EV ownership started with state-owned companies (more easily done in a command and control economy) but now individuals are seeing the benefits and the ownership is spreading out to the private sector
• The Government is using policy mechanisms to: – Reduce the direct financial burden of the policies (phasing out direct subsidies but using other incentives instead) – Improve EV quality and standards – To promote pure EV rather than PHEV – Force manufacturers to ramp up production
• This is resulting in a move towards more private buyers of EV’s: – Which is driving small cars (because incentives are more valuable to lower income purchasers) – Who want greater performance (impacts on ternary battery) – And making the rampant fraud easier to stamp out
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28 Cover image source: nerthuz/123rf.com New Dual-Credit Scheme and Average Fuel Consumption (CAFC) Regulation
2018 2019 2020
(1) Total Production estimation (000) 25,320 26,590 27,920
(2) NEV Credit Minimum Requirement 8% 10% 12%
(3) Total Targets 2,025.6 2,659.0 3,350.4 [ (1) × (2) ]
(4) CAFC Credit 840 1,470 2,420
(5) Total Dual-Credit Scheme 2,865.6 4,129.0 5,7704 [ (3) + (4) ]
(6) Final NEV Production Required (000) 950 1370 1920 Assuming 3 credits/each
(7) Production Share 3.8% 5.2% 6.9% [ (6) / (1) ]
29 Source: TLG Analysis and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology The Most Popular Vehicles
Comp. Series Size 000 Type Battery Battery Type Range Charging Maintenance Battery RMB Cap. (km) Time Coverage Coverage (kWh) (hrs) BYD Qin 100 Mid SUV 209.9 PHEV 13 Ternary 199 6 6 yrs. or 6 yrs. or 150,000km 150,000km EV 300 145.9 EV 47.5 Lithium Iron Phosphate 350 1.2(F)/7(S)
Tang 219.9 PHEV 23 Ternary 100 6.9 Lifetime 100 300 e Compact 195.9 EV 43 Lithium Iron Phosphate 305 1.2(F)/7(S) 8 yrs. or 150,000km 400 MPV 309.8 EV 82 Lithium Iron Phosphate 400 1.5(F)/8(S) 4 yrs. 8 yrs. or 150,000km BJEV EC200 Mini 158.8 EV 20.5 Ternary 162 0.6(F)/8(S) 3 yrs. or 120,000km EX260 Small 192.9 EV 38.6 Ternary 250 0.5(F)/6- SUV 7(S) EV160 Small 177.8 EV 25.6 Lithium Iron Phosphate 150 1(F)/7-8(S) EU260 Compact 205.9 EV 41.4 Ternary 260 0.5(F)/7- 8(S) Geely EV300 Compact 205.8 41 Ternary 300 0.8(F)/14(S) 4 yrs. or 150,000km Zhidou D12016 Mini 158.8 18 Lithium Iron Phosphate 180 8-10 2 yrs. or 40,000km D22017 151.8 18 Ternary 180 6-8 3 yrs. or 60,000km Cherry eQ2017 169.9 23.6 Ternary 200 8-10 3 yrs.