2014 Post-Election Analysis: Wisconsin
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2014 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: WISCONSIN TABLE OF CONTENTS STATE OVERVIEW 2 Registration Overview 3 Turnout Analysis 3 Absentee/Early Voting 4 Regional Analysis 5 Election-Law Impacts 5 Exit Polling 6 GOVERNOR 11 Media Spending Analysis 14 Geographic Analysis 17 ATTORNEY GENERAL 19 Media Spending Analysis 21 Geographic Analysis 23 STATE LEGISLATURE 25 State Senate 25 State Assembly 26 Consequences 27 STATE OVERVIEW Wisconsin is a polarized state that leans Democratic in presidential cycles but has become increasingly competitive for Republicans in midterm elections.1 While President Obama won the state by just under 7% in 2012, Governor Scott Walker won his recall election earlier that year by an almost identical margin.2 2010 was also a blockbuster year for Republicans. In addition to Walker’s election, Republicans beat an incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator and flipped control of both chambers of the state legislature.3 Since the GOP takeover of state government in 2010, Governor Walker has pushed through several controversial pieces of legislation, including Act 10, a so-called “budget repair bill” that severely curtailed collective bargaining rights for public employees in the state and sparked widespread protests.4 He also supported a controversial voter ID law that has been the subject of extensive legal action.5 In response to Walker’s aggressive right-wing agenda, unions led the effort to recall him, but he beat back a strong challenge from Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. This year, Walker faced a fierce challenge from Mary Burke, a Madison school board member and the former state Commerce Secretary. In the 2010 election, Walker promised to create 250,000 new jobs, but Wisconsin’s economy is still struggling, and the state’s job growth has been especially lackluster.6 Burke kept her attacks on Walker focused on Wisconsin’s poor economic performance rather than revisiting the battle over Act 10.7 Walker’s controversial tenure has also affected the state’s contested race to replace outgoing Republican Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen. Since Walker was elected in 2010, the office has largely been tasked with defending several controversial laws that the governor championed, and Van Hollen became an extremely partisan Walker ally.8 Van Hollen, however, announced his retirement, which set up a contentious open race between Republican Brad Schimel and Democrat Susan Happ, both district attorneys of neighboring counties in the Milwaukee metropolitan area.9 Further down-ballot, there were some targeted state Senate elections as Democrats tried to recapture control of the chamber. Several members in competitive districts retired this year, setting up a number of pickup opportunities for both Democrats and Republicans. On November 4th, Scott Walker beat Burke in his third victory in four years with 52.3% of the vote to her 46.6%. His six-point win was almost identical to his margins against Tom Barrett in his respective 2010 and 2012 elections. Democrats also fell short in the contested attorney general’s race, where Happ lost by a similar margin.10 Finally, Republicans maintained control of the state Senate and actually gained a seat as they enter into next year with firm control of state government.11 1 Craig Gilbert, “Explaining Wisconsin's dizzying political swings of 2010, 2012,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, November 10, 2012. 2 Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 10/1/14. 3 Jason Stein, “Republicans take over state Senate, Assembly,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, November 3, 2010. 4 Steven Greenhouse, “Wisconsin’s Legacy for Unions,” New York Times, February 22, 2014. 5 Erika Eichelberger, “The Supreme Court Just Blocked Scott Walker's Voter ID Law,” Mother Jones, October 10, 2014. 6 Philip Bump, “Scott Walker’s 2010 jobs pledge was probably not a good idea,” Washington Post, September 5, 2014. 7 David Lauter, “In Wisconsin, Democrats try moderation in fight with Scott Walker,” Los Angeles Times, October 10, 2014. 8 Gilman Halstead, “J.B. Van Hollen Won't Seek Another Term As Attorney General,” Wisconsin Public Radio, October 7, 2013. 9 Patrick Marley, “Majority of voters know little about Brad Schimel, Susan Happ,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, October 25, 2014. 10 “Wisconsin: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 12:31 p.m. 11 “GOP keeps Senate majority; La Follette, Adamczyk win,” Associated Press, November 5, 2014. 2 Wisconsin 2014 Election Results Dem vs. Incumbent Dem GOP Other Office Democrat Republican GOP % Party % % % Margin Governor Mary Burke Scott Walker R 46.6% 52.3% 1.1% -5.7% Secretary of State Doug La Follette Julian Bradley D 50.0% 46.3% 3.6% 3.7% Attorney General Susan Happ Brad Schimel OPEN (R) 45.4% 51.6% 3.0% -6.2% Treasurer David Sartori Matt Adamczyk OPEN (R) 44.8% 48.8% 6.4% -4.0% WI-01 Rob Zerban Paul Ryan R 36.5% 63.5% N/A -27.0% WI-02 Mark Pocan Peter Theron D 68.5% 31.5% N/A 37.0% WI-03 Ron Kind Tony Kurtz D 56.7% 43.3% N/A 13.4% WI-04 Gwen Moore Dan Sebring D 70.3% 26.9% 2.8% 43.4% WI-05 Chris Rockwood Jim Sensenbrenner R 30.5% 69.5% N/A -39.0% WI-06 Mark Harris Glenn Grothman OPEN (R) 40.9% 56.8% 2.3% -15.9% WI-07 Kelly Westlund Sean Duffy R 39.5% 59.2% 1.3% -19.7% WI-08 Ron Gruett Reid Ribble R 34.9% 65.1% N/A -30.2% State Senate 6 seats 11 seats R 14 D 19 R 0 I R+1 State House 38 seats 60 seats R 36 D 63 R* 0 I R+3 Sources: “Wisconsin: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 12:31 p.m.; “Wisconsin: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed Friday, November 7, 2014; Patrick Marley, “GOP increases its majorities in Wisconsin Legislature,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, November 6, 2014. * As of Friday November 7th, two races are still uncalled but Republicans lead in both. If their leads hold, Republicans will control 63 seats in the chamber. REGISTRATION OVERVIEW Wisconsin is not a party registration state, and party ID is not available on the state voter file. Because of the lack of party registration and partisan primary vote history, identifying supporters in Wisconsin is challenging. As of November 1, 2014, there were 3,391,118 registered voters in Wisconsin.12 TURNOUT ANALYSIS Wisconsin is one of the highest-turnout states in the country. In 2012, only neighboring Minnesota had a higher rate, and the state performed almost as comparatively well in 2010 when only four states had higher turnout. The difference between turnout rates in 2010 and 2012, however, is quite stark. In 2010, 52.0% of Wisconsin’s voting-eligible population turned out to vote, which was an almost 20% drop from the 72.9% of voting eligible residents who voted in 2012. 13 Turnout rates are distributed evenly throughout the state. In 2012, the highest turnout counties were a mix of liberal and conservative strongholds that included some of the state’s most populated counties. Waukesha County, a crucial GOP stronghold that includes the Western Milwaukee suburbs, was the second-highest turnout county at 81% of its VAP, while liberal Dane County— which includes Madison—had the fourth-highest turnout (79% of its VAP casted votes). Both Dane and Waukesha are also the second and third most populous counties in the state, respectively. Milwaukee County, the most populous of the state’s 72 counties, had a turnout rate that matched the 12 “November 1, 2014 Voter Registration Statistics,” Government Accountability Board, November 1, 2014. 13 “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed October 27, 2014. 3 state average at just over 69% of its VAP. Only Menominee County—the smallest in the state— registered a VAP turnout rate below 50%.14 According to preliminary statistics, Wisconsin posted the second-highest turnout in the nation in this year’s election. As of November 5th, 56.7% of Wisconsin’s voting eligible population turned out to vote, a rate that only Maine exceeded.15 Wisconsin VEP Turnout Since 2008 VEP Highest- VEP Turnout National VEP Year VEP Office Turnout Rate Turnout Rate 2008 4,120,694 2,983,417 72.4% 61.6% 2010 4,172,130 2,171,331 52.0% 40.9% 2012 4,208,757 3,068,434 72.9% 58.0% 2014 4,265,187 2,425,000 56.9% 36.6% Difference from 2010 93,057 253,669 4.9% -4.3% Difference from 2012 56,430 -643,434 -16.0% -21.4% Source: “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. ABSENTEE/EARLY VOTING Wisconsin is a no-excuse absentee voting state.16 Voters have the option to either send in an absentee vote by mail or they can cast it in-person at a municipal clerk’s office. In-person absentee voting began on Monday, October 20th and ended on Friday, October 31st.17 While voters do not need to cite a reason for requesting absentee ballots, a new, heavily-litigated voter ID law had complicated the early voting process. The law included a provision that required absentee voters to present a photo ID. In-person absentee voters would have been required to present the ID as they voted at a municipal clerk’s office and voters who requested a ballot by mail would have had to send a photo ID (or a copy of one) with their request. 18 On Thursday, October 8th, however, the United States Supreme Court stopped election officials from implementing those requirements.19 Wisconsin Method of Vote Since 2008 Election Total Absentee Absentee Election Day Year Day Voters Votes % Registration% Registrations 2008 2,996,869 647,175 21.6% 459,549 15.3% 2010 2,185,017 230,744 10.6% 1,954,273 10.5% 2012 3,080,628 664,597 21.6% 337,033 10.9% 2014 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Source: “Absentee Voting,” Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, accessed October 7, 2014.