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Shoresteinsays.Com 2020 - NFL Week 15 ShoresteinSays.com 2020 - NFL Week 15 "The Money Zone": Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 600 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful. 2020 Week 15 Away Home Calculated Spread Actual Spread Calculated vs Actual Projected Winner ATS New England Miami (9.60) (2.00) 7.60 Miami Pittsburgh Cincinnati 6.40 13.00 6.60 Cincinnati Philadelphia Arizona (13.00) (6.50) 6.50 Arizona Carolina Green Bay (13.37) (9.00) 4.37 Green Bay Tampa Bay Atlanta 1.77 6.00 4.23 Atlanta Chicago Minnesota (7.20) (3.00) 4.20 Minnesota LA Chargers Las Vegas (7.03) (3.00) 4.03 Las Vegas Cleveland NY Giants 2.40 5.00 2.60 NY Giants Seattle Washington 3.03 5.50 2.47 Washington Kansas City New Orleans 5.07 3.00 2.07 Kansas City San Francisco Dallas 1.13 3.00 1.87 Dallas NY Jets LA Rams (19.30) (17.50) 1.80 LA Rams Buffalo Denver 7.53 6.00 1.53 Buffalo Jacksonville Baltimore (12.23) (13.00) 0.77 Jacksonville Houston Indianapolis (6.47) (7.00) 0.53 Houston Detroit Tennessee (11.20) (11.00) 0.20 Tennessee The Week 15 Money Zone picks are Green Bay, Atlanta, Minnesota, Las Vegas, NY Giants, Washington & Kansas City. **2020 Money Zone Record is 51-43 ATS (54.26%)** “Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week are 26-28 ATS in 2020** Carolina @ Green Bay -9: I think the Panthers are a great opponent for the Packers. Defensively, this Panthers team has really gone in the opposite direction, after they had a surprisingly effective start to 2020. Aaron Rodgers continues his torrid pace and is on track to win the MVP, and I don’t see him slowing down at all in this Saturday night contest. The Packers should view this as a great opportunity to vault ahead of the Saints for the #1 seed as they matchup with the best team in football in the Chiefs. As you can see below, the Panthers defense has slid dramatically in a lot of the areas that Green Bay excels at. The comparison chart below shows that Green Bay has a distinct advantage in the following areas: Panthers Defensive Slide Def. Passer Rating Sack % Scoring Def Opp 3rd Down % 101.0 (26th) 3.83% (28th) 25.50 (20th) 50.63% (31st) Packers Offensive Matchup Off. Passer Rating Sack % Allowed Scoring 3rd Down % 119.70 (1st) 3.03% (2nd) 31.50 (1st) 49.67% (1st) What this tells me is that the Panthers have virtually no pass rush, while Green Bay has been elite in protecting Rodgers. I think this is a major improvement for Green Bay as one of my biggest criticisms of Rodgers is that he often tried to make too many big plays downfield and would end up taking costly sacks. I think they have largely corrected this problem, and especially against the Panthers, he should have ample time to throw to Devante Adams and Co. The Packers have also been an excellent 3rd down team, and again this has been a huge problem for the Carolina defense. On the other side of the ball, I think Teddy Bridgewater has had a solid season overall. I just don’t expect him to hang with the Packers in a shootout atmosphere. Bridgewater has played efficiently, but he has only led the Panthers into the 30’s in 3 of his 13 starts. The Packers have shown time and again that they struggle with run heavy teams, and this is just not something that the Panthers have done well this season. They average only 4.3 yards per attempt, and they rank in the bottom third of the league in number of attempts per game. I think Matt Rhule had an intriguing start to the season, but I don’t think the Panthers can hang around in Saturday’s contest. Going back the past few years, the Packers are 13-9 ATS as a home favorite (59.10%). Tampa Bay @ Atlanta +6: It’s difficult to do a write up on a team that you’ve trashed all season, but I will do my best…. For a majority of the season, the Falcons defense was decimated with injury. I think they’ve had key players return (Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, Grady Jarrett, and Darqueze Denard) and play pretty effectively. Their scoring defense has returned back to an average number, they’ve improved their passer rating defense, and are only giving up about 4.4 yards per carry. I think they have enough pieces to slow down the Tampa offense, which honestly hasn’t been very good since they slaughtered Green Bay in week 6. I still think Tampa is not nearly committed enough to running the ball with Ronald Jones. They still average just 23.3 attempts per game which ranks near the bottom of the league. Matt Ryan’s been hot and cold all year, which is how his whole career has essentially been. I think he should have a solid opportunity to play well in this contest. After Tampa’s red hot start on defense, I think they have cooled off considerably. The Falcons have shown flashes that they can put up some huge numbers as they have scored over 34 points 4 different times this season. This Tampa team has played down to its competition at times; this included 2 very close road games. One of which was to the Giants which they ultimately won, but they had a bad loss to the Bears on the road earlier on the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons kept this game close as they have had 7 games that finished within a 7 points margin already this season. That should be enough to cover the spread. Kansas City -3 @ New Orleans: The Chiefs are the best team in football hands down. I think any chance you have at betting them as a FG favorite is an excellent opportunity. As good as New Orleans’ defense has been playing, there is no slowing this KC offense down, especially indoors. The speed is just off the charts, and the lack of fans is definitely a major blow to the Saints’ home field advantage. Looking back at some big games that the Saints hosted recently, the defense has been exploited in the dome. Saints Bad Track Record Big Games Season Opponent Points Allowed Opp QB Rating Yards / Play 2020 Packers 37.00 124.90 5.95 2019 (Playoffs) Vikings 26.00 96.40 5.10 2019 49ers 48.00 131.70 8.60 I think this defense has a tendency to beat up on bad teams, but when they are faced with a real challenge/great offense, they can be very vulnerable. In the past, I would be worried about backing the Chiefs on the road against a physical, running team with a great defense. I don’t have those concerns anymore, as the Chiefs have greatly improved their defensive front and have been a better run defense. Chiefs Defensive Improvements from Last Year Season Yards / Carry Allowed Time of Possession Takeaways 2020 4.70 29.56 (19th) 1.50 2019 4.90 29.27 (23rd) 1.40 The improvements may look marginal, but when you have an offense as explosive as Kansas City’s those enhancements can make all the difference. The Chiefs have had several close games in a row. I think they are due to really open a game up and win by double digits. Cleveland @ NY Giants +5: I think the Giants have solid value in this matchup. They have shown that they can be a competitive team especially at home against solid competition. Before last week’s no- show against Arizona, they had 4 straight wins (over Washington, Philly, Cincinnati, and Seattle). They have really gathered some momentum from their defense. In that 4 game stretch, they held their opponents to just 16.5 points per game. The Giants have shown that they have a very productive run defense. They are giving up just 3.9 yards per attempt on the season. As I talked about last week, the Browns offense is dependent on establishing Chubb/Hunt and attacking the secondary on bootleg play-action. I think the Giants have the right defensive strengths to slowdown that offensive scheme. I think Cleveland is also in a tough spot after their devastating loss to the Ravens that went late into Monday night. I think it is a tough turn around to face a tough Giants team on the road on short rest, and as a pretty significant favorite. I think the Browns secondary has major problems without Denzel Ward. There should be a lot of opportunities for big plays down the field for the Giants speed wideouts, but this would require the Giants offensive line to hold up.
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