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Nuclear Weapon Effects Test, Evaluation, and Simulation

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Nuclear Weapon Effects Test, Evaluation, and Simulation Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Nuclear Weapon Effects Test, Evaluation, and Simulation April 2005 Office of the Under Secretary of Defense For Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Washington, D.C. 20301-3140 This report is a product of the Defense Science Board (DSB). The DSB is a Federal Advisory Committee established to provide independent advice to the Secretary of Defense. Statements, opinions, conclusions, and recommendations in this report do not necessarily represent the official position of the Department of Defense. This report is UNCLASSIFIED. - i - - ii - This page is intentionally blank. - iii - - iv - - v - TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................ 1 I. CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .................................................................................. 5 1.1 The Changing Threat Environment ............................................................5 1.2 Key Trends in U.S. Capabilities ............................................................................... 7 1.3 Definitions and Organization of the Report...............................................7 II. CHAPTER 2: THE CURRENT AND EMERGING NUCLEAR THREAT AND OPERATING ENVIRONMENTS .................................................... 9 2.1 Trends in Adversary Capabilities as a Context for Analysis...................9 2.2 Projection of Capabilities and Scenarios of Potential Nuclear Use Against the U.S....................................................................................................11 Strategic Exchanges.....................................................................................11 Non-Strategic Exchanges............................................................................12 Terrorist Attacks ..........................................................................................13 2.3 Special Cases.................................................................................................14 Missile Defense ............................................................................................14 High-Altitude EMP Attacks.......................................................................15 2.4 Survivability Concerns................................................................................16 III. CHAPTER 3: TRANSLATING THREAT TO REQUIREMENTS .......19 3.1 Current Service, Agency, and System Practices ......................................19 U.S. Army .....................................................................................................19 U.S. Navy......................................................................................................20 U.S. Air Force ...............................................................................................21 Missile Defense Agency (MDA)................................................................21 Command and Control (C2) ......................................................................22 Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) .............................22 3.2 Transitioning from Requirements to Capabilities-Based Acquisition...........................................................................................................23 Evolutionary Strategy .................................................................................23 Assuring Joint Capabilities ........................................................................23 3.3 Nuclear Survivability – A Reduced Priority in the Joint Process?.........24 3.4 Nuclear Survivability for In-Place Forces..................................................25 IV. WEAPON OUTPUT CALCULATIONS.................................................................27 4.1 The Red Book................................................................................................27 4.2 Uncertainties in the Calculations...............................................................28 - vi - 4.3 Variabilities in the Calculations .................................................................28 4.4 Programmatic Observations.......................................................................29 V. HARDENING SYSTEMS AND ASSESSING COMPLIANCE – PAST AND PRESENT ................................................................................................................31 5.1 Design Strategies..........................................................................................31 5.2 The Hardening Process and Design Assessment ....................................32 5.3 Nuclear Weapon Effects Simulators..........................................................34 Prompt γ Simulators....................................................................................34 Prompt Neutron Simulators ......................................................................35 X-ray Simulators ..........................................................................................36 Modified Neutron/Gamma Simulators....................................................38 EMP Simulators ...........................................................................................38 Impulse Simulators .....................................................................................39 Blast Simulators ...........................................................................................40 5.4 Modeling and Simulation ...........................................................................40 5.5 Surveillance...................................................................................................41 5.6 Underground Nuclear Effects Testing......................................................42 5.7 Current Business Models............................................................................44 DOE Program...............................................................................................44 Issues and Trends Impacting NNSA NWE Programs ...........................45 DoD Requirements......................................................................................47 DTRA Nuclear Weapon Effects Technology Program...........................47 DTRA Program Execution..........................................................................48 VI. HARDENING SYSTEMS AND ASSESSING COMPLIANCE – THE FUTURE....................................................................................................................................51 6.1 Evolving Design Strategies.........................................................................51 6.2 Future Radiation Hardened Technology Challenges .............................51 6.3 Future Requirements for Nuclear Weapon Effects Simulators.............53 6.4 Improved Modeling and Simulation.........................................................54 6.5 Surveillance...................................................................................................54 6.6 A New Business Model...............................................................................55 VII. RECOMMENDATIONS. ........................................................... 57 7.1 Summary of the Findings ...........................................................................57 7.2 Recommendations: Assuring Capabilities ...............................................58 7.3 Recommendations: Simulators and Simulation ......................................60 7.4 Deferring the Roadmap...............................................................................61 - vii - APPENDICES ...................................................................................................................................63 A. Terms of Reference......................................................................................63 B. Task Force Participants...............................................................................65 C. DTRA/NNSA Memorandum of Understanding ....................................67 D. Missile Defense Agency..............................................................................73 E. U.S. Army Survivability Procedures ........................................................79 F. U.S. Navy Survivability Procedures .........................................................85 G. U.S. Air Force Survivability Procedures ..................................................91 H. Department of Energy ..............................................................................105 I. DTRA Assessment of NWE Capabilities & Gaps .................................111 J. Acronyms....................................................................................................115 K. List of Briefings Received by the Task Force.........................................117 L. Congressional & NNSA Actions During the Review of this Report .....................................................................................................121 - viii - - ix - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Defense Science Board (DSB) Task Force on Nuclear Weapon Effects (NWE) Test, Evaluation and Simulation was undertaken with the overall goal of providing a comprehensive evaluation of current and future Department of Defense (DoD) processes for assuring successful operation in nuclear environments. As directed by the Terms of Reference, we have assessed opponent capabilities and DoD processes for establishing and enforcing hardness goals. These assessments have considered the emergence of terrorism as a major threat to the U.S. homeland
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