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Contour, and Thus Is Potentially Liable to Flood in a Major Storm This Caa GEOLOGIC RESOURCES AND GEO%BARDS INTRODUCTION In any coastal settiag there is competition betweea the needs of humanbeings aad the stability of the natural system. The coastliae of Pasco, Hernando,and Citrus Counties is a particularly striking example becauseit is a nearly pristine area poisedat the brink of a period of rapid growth in humanexploitation. There are a variety of valuable geological and biological resources as well as sevezal geohazardswhich shouldbe consideredin planning for this growth. GEOLOGIC RESOURCES The most valuable geologic resource is stable coastal pzoperty abovestorm flooding. The ma!ority of the study area is below the 3 m 0 ft! contour,and thus is potentiallyliable to flood in a majorstorm surge. On the other hand, most of the study azea is situated over consolidatedlimestone, with only thin sedimentcover, and thus providing a stable building foundation. In other coastal states e.g. Delaware, North Carolina! constructionin coastal wetlandsrequires deeppilings to avoid subsidence. TheTertiary limestonesare a sigaificant sourceof aggregateand agricultural lime and dolomite. An exampleis the Lecanto limestone quarry near Crystal River. Tertiary limastones occur at the surface over the northerntwo-thirds of the studyarea, aad are coveredby only several meters of Quaternarysends in PascoCounty. Sandis aa important resource for the construction industry aad as a zaw material for glass-making. Sands of the west-central Florida barrier island coast are nearly pure quartz in manyareas. On the other hand, sand is pzobablymoze important as beach nourishmentmaterial to maintainthe stability of the coastline. Indiscriminatemining is prohibitedand would be extremelydestabiliziag. Sandis an important componentof the berm-ridge coastline in PascoCouaty, protecting the marshfrom direct waveattack. Here. these sandshave a high shell compoaent. Anothergeologic resource useful in coastrucCionis shell aggregate. This caatake the formof fossil shellsmined from geologic formatioas, or modernshells mined from oysCerreefs, especially those not now living. Thereaze extensivedefunct oyster reefs in the outerparts of CrystalBay, and a few in the Chassahowitzkaregion. Miningof these shells wouldhave aa environmentaleffect, however,in that theydamp wave energy impinging on the inner parts of the embayment. Marshpeat is exteasive but thin!, coveriag almost all of the coastline of the studyareas. Peatsare usedia Europeand parts of the UnitedStates as a souzceof fuel and for agricultural purposes. Maiae andNorth Carolina Otte, 1984;Maine Geological Survey, 1985! aze developingpeat resourcesfor fuel at pzeseat, andhave loag used ~Si~ha aum peat for agricultural purposes. Althoughthe marshpeats in the studyarea are moderatein organicconteat they aze predamiaaatlysaline to brackish marsh, and thus would have a high sulfur content. This would disqualify them for extensive use as a fuel. Possible use as biomassfor methaneproduction should be explored, as a resource iu addition to the 140 marine algae already investigated by Betzer and Humm undated final report!. Freshwater is perhaps the second most important resource in this region of Florida. as it is in most of the country. Within the coastal zone the most important consideration is prevention of saltwater intrusion. The U.S. Geological Survey and Southwest Florida Water Management District Ryder, 1985! have a great deal of information available on this subject, which we will not attempt to repeat, but in general overpumping of the limited resource allows salt watex' to intrude into coastal wells. In addition, dredging of canals and waterways can speed this intrusion. A corollary problem is pollution of surface waters by overdevelopment. Reallocation of the freshwater flow has been discussed e.g. St. Petersburg Times, June 14, 1985!, such as taking ~ster fxom the Weekiwachee spring for St. Petersburg municipal supply. This might be technically feasible at certain seasons of the year, but a decrease in flow to the Gulf will have uncertain effects on the coastal biological communities, the grasses and oysters, in particular. The most visible resource is the series of natural environments, from marsh to mangrove swamp, from bayou to pond, and from open Gulf to forested upland. These natural environments support a diverse ecological web of biological resources. It is well known Cain and Dean, 1976; Thayex, et al. 1978; Durako et al. 1985! that maxshes and mangrove swamps are important nurseries for early development of many fish. Disruption of these habitats can have serious impacts on the fishing industry. In addition, recreational use for water sports, hunting, birding and shel- ling, etc. is an important part of the State's economy Fernald, 1981!. The most important resource during the present housing boom, however, is coastal property. A balance among the competing needs is necessary. GEOHAZARDS The most eigxd.ficant geohazard on the Florida coast is the eventual certainty of a major damaging hurricane. No major hurricane has struck the study area in over 60 years. Even though there was increased hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico during the Fall of 1985, none of these storms passed directly over the study area or even came within 80 hn 0 miles! of it. Since 1925, the population has increased enormously. In 1940, the State's population was 1.9 million 'Fernald, 1981!. Today, it is over 10 million people, most of whom have never experienced a hurricane. The direct forces of winds and waves can be extremely costly in terms of property, but the most life-threatening problem is coastal flooding caused by the storm surge. This surge is caused by a combination of localized, low barometric pressure and winds which pile up the water in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. The storm surge for Hurricane Camille which stuck the Mississippi coast in 1969 was over 8 m 6 ft!, and was largely responsible for the loss of many Uves. In our study area, a major problem with storm surge is the isolated, exposed nature of coastal communities, such as Hernaudo Beach and Pine Island, with restricted access roads which would be rapidly flooded as the storm approached see PHYSICAL PROCESSESsection!. 141 A secondary geohazard is shoreline instability. Coastal erosion is slow in the study area as compared to marshy shorelines elsewhere in the U.S. because of the near-surface rock underpinnings. On the other hand, several marsh islands have completely disappeared in the period 1944-1982 such as Green Point in the Ozello quadrangle!. The greatest shoreline instability is on the most exposed outer islands and in areas exposed to boat traffic, with the resulting net increase in wave energy, such as Shell Island at the mouth of the Crystal River. Another short-term geohazard is the subsidence of land over sinkholes. Virtually the entire field area is underlain by karstified limestone, with numerous sinkholes-particularly near active or formerly active freshwater spring discharge sites. Sinkholes are a perennial problem in Florida, whose activity location! is almost completely unpredictable see Beck, 1984! . Certainly, times of drought cause more sinkholes to appear as a result of lowered water table. Sinkholes and solution pans dolinas, small, circular depressions! are visible in the nearshore from the air and by seismic profiling. They have been infilled by marsh and marine sediments. Sinkholes are especially obvious in the coastal zone as circular ponds, but may underlie almost any building site. The effect of global sea-level rise is the most significant long-term geohazard next to hurricanes. The long-tean trend of local relative sea-level has been a steady rise at about 33 cm 3 in!/1000 yr for the past 3000 years Scholl et al. 1969!, but over the past 70 years tide gauges demonstrate a rate of rise from three to five times as fast. Specifically, the tide gauge at Cedar Key shows an overall rise of 8.2 cm .2 in! for the period 1914-1980 Hicks et al. 1983!. Within this time frame, there was a maximum vertical fluctuation of 19.8 cm .8 in!. Titus et al. 984a! haveexamined the effects of atmosphericCO2 on global warming the greenhouse effect! and proposed scenarios for an increase in the rate of sea-level rise, possibly by a factor of ten or more. Depending on the rate of burning of fossil fuels, they suggest that sea level could be 56 to 345 cm .8 to 11.3 ft! above present by the year 2100. In terms of a human lifetime, this represents a rise of 24 cm .78 ft! to 117 cm .8 ft! in the next 65 years Titus et al. 1984a; their Table 1-1, p. 17!. Since the coast and shelf are so flat, with a gradient of about 1:6667 seaward of the Brooksville Ridge, sea-level changes result in extremely rapid shoreline migrations. For example, the long-term geologic rate would result in. an average shoreline retrogradation of 2.2 m .2 ft!/yr; the tide gauge rate would result ia a potential retrogradation rate of 10.5 m 4.5 ft!/yr, and the most extreme greenhouse effect projections would yield a potential average rate of 304 m 996 ft!/yr between the years 2050 and 2100. However, more recent estimates indicate that sea level wi11 rise about 70 cm .3 ft! by the year 2085 causing a retrogression rate of approx~ately 67 m 21 ft!/yr at that time. The potential impacts on the coastal zone are obvious, compressing the available wetlands into a narrowing belt against the Pleistocene highlands of the Pamlico Terrace and the Brooksville Ridge. 142 RECOMMENDATIONS The balance between human development pressure and the need to maintain a stable natural environment is one of the most sensitive and difficult undertakings in our society. Careful planning is an absolute necessity in order to be fair to each of the competing interests. Scientific investigation of the processes and resources can indicate areas of concern, but planners and regulators must decide the balance point.
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