Stoke Gifford Bypass Study
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Stoke Gifford Bypass Study Policy Review & Scheme Appraisal August 2006 JOB NUMBER: 5040208 DOCUMENT REF: StokeGifford_Report_v5.doc v5 Final RCH SB SB 02/08/06 v4 Draft for issue RCH SB SB 18/05/06 v3 Third Draft RCH SB 28/04/06 v2 Second Draft RCH 04/04/06 v1 First Draft RCH 08/02/06 Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date Revision Purpose Description STOKE GIFFORD BYPASS STUDY Policy Review and Scheme Appraisal Contents Section Page 1. Introduction 1.1 Background 1.1 Terms of Reference 1.2 This Report 1.3 2. Policy Review 2.1 Introduction 2.1 Objectives of the Stoke Gifford Bypass 2.3 Key Outcomes of the Stoke Gifford Bypass 2.3 Conclusions 2.16 3. Traffic Forecasting 3.1 BATS2 Model 3.1 Model Validation 3.2 Forecast Land-Use/Network Assumptions 3.7 Scheme Alternatives for Testing 3.9 4. Operational Assessment 4.1 Traffic Forecasts 4.1 Traffic Growth 4.1 Forecast Network Performance 4.1 Forecast Traffic Flows 4.2 Forecast Traffic Effects by Area 4.4 Changes in Bus Journey Times 4.5 5. Economic Appraisal 5.1 Construction Costs 5.1 Present Value Costs 5.2 Transport Economic Efficiency Benefits 5.3 TUBA Inputs 5.3 Economic Benefits of the Scheme 5.4 Accident Benefits 5.5 Summary of Accident Benefits 5.7 Summary of the Economic Appraisal 5.7 6. Conclusions 6.1 Appendix A 2016 Forecast Traffic Flows Appendix B 2016 Forecast Changes in Bus Journey Times 5040208/Report/Final i StokeGifford_Report_v5.doc STOKE GIFFORD BYPASS STUDY Policy Review and Scheme Appraisal List of Figures Figure 2.1 – The Causal Chain Approach 2.2 Figure 3.1 – Location of Count Sites used for Model validation 3.6 Figure 3.2 – Alternative Options for Stoke Gifford Bypass 3.10 Figure 4.1 – Selected Links for Forecast Traffic Flows 4.10 Figure 4.2 – Forecast Traffic Effects of the Purple Route – 2016 AM Peak Hour 4.17 Figure 4.3 – Forecast Traffic Flows on the Purple Route – 2016 AM Peak Hour 4.18 Figure 4.4 – Bus Routes in GBBN Corridor 4 (Route 73) 4.19 Figure 5.1 – COBA Network 5.6 List of Tables Table 2.1 – National Policy Scheme Fit Matrix 2.4 Table 2.2 – Regional Policy Scheme Fit Matrix: Regional Transport Strategy 2.6 Table 2.3 – Regional Policy Scheme Fit Matrix: Funding Allocations 2.8 Table 2.4 – Sub Regional Policy Scheme Fit Matrix: Joint Replacement Structure Plan 2.10 Table 2.5 – Sub Regional Policy Scheme Fit Matrix: Greater Bristol Strategic Transport Study 2.12 Table 2.6 – Sub Regional Policy Scheme Fit Matrix: Joint Local Transport Plan 2.14 Table 3.1 – Comparison of Modelled and Observed Flows – 2004 AM Peak Hour 3.4 Table 3.2 – Comparison of Modelled and Observed Flows – 2004 Inter-Peak 3.5 Table 3.3 – Summary of Scenario F Housing and Employment Forecasts 3.8 Table 4.1 – Forecast Network Performance – 2016 AM Peak Hour 4.6 Table 4.2 – Forecast Network Performance – 2016 Average Inter-peak Hour 4.7 Table 4.3 – Forecast Network Performance – 2031 AM Peak Hour 4.8 Table 4.4 – Forecast Network Performance – 2031 Average Inter-peak Hour 4.9 Table 4.5 – Forecast Traffic Flows – 2016 AM Peak Hour 4.11 Table 4.6 – Forecast Traffic Flows – 2016 Inter-peak Hour 4.12 Table 4.7 – Forecast Traffic Flows – 2031 AM Peak Hour 4.14 Table 4.8 – Forecast Traffic Flows – 2031 Inter-peak Hour 4.16 Table 5.1 – Scheme Costs 5.2 Table 5.2 – Economic Efficiency Benefits of the Stoke Gifford Bypass 5.4 Table 5.3 – Summary of Forecast Accident Benefits 5.7 Table 5.4 – Economic Appraisal of the Stoke Gifford Bypass Scheme 5.9 5040208/Report/Final ii StokeGifford_Report_v5.doc STOKE GIFFORD BYPASS STUDY Policy Review and Scheme Appraisal 1. Introduction 1.1 In November 2005, Atkins Planning Consultants were commissioned by South Gloucestershire Council (SGC) to undertake a review of the proposed Stoke Gifford Bypass, which would provide a link between Great Stoke Way (at its southern end) and the A4174 Avon Ring Road. This review was to be independent and impartial. 1.2 This report presents the findings of the Atkins study, including a policy review and an operational and economic appraisal of scheme options. BACKGROUND Winterbourne Bypass 1.3 The Winterbourne bypass was first proposed in the mid-1980s to provide a strategic route between Yate and Bristol, which would bypass Winterbourne/ Frampton Cotterell, and improve access to the county and motorway network. 1.4 A proposal for the bypass was included in the Avon County Structure Plan of 1994, and assessed as part of the Avon North West Sector Study undertaken by MVA. This study recommended the full scheme on balance, but showed that the economic case for the southern section of the proposed route (from the B4057 to the Avon Ring Road at Harry Stoke) was stronger than that for the northern section (from Iron Acton to the B4057 Winterbourne Road). Subsequent work by Oscar Faber in 1997 confirmed the relative merits of the southern section. It was therefore promoted as a key element of the Bristol North Fringe Multi Modal Project for SGC’s TPP submission of 1997/98. 1.5 However, following further work by Steer Davies Gleave for LTP1 and the Public Examination of the Deposit Structure Plan, the by-pass was excluded from the revised Structure Plan of February 2000. It was formally abandoned by SGC in May 2000. 1.6 More recently, a full Winterbourne Bypass proposal has been re-examined by the Greater Bristol Strategic Transport Study. An economic appraisal of the scheme, based on a single 2031 AM peak hour assignment and limited to weekday peak period benefits only, showed that it would generate very significant user benefits and return a Benefit/Cost Ratio (BCR) of 8.3 over 60 years. Most of the user benefits would be travel time savings resulting from relief of congestion in the North Fringe area. Stoke Gifford Bypass 1.7 The most southerly section of the Winterbourne bypass, formerly known as the ‘Bradley Stoke Link’ or ‘Winterbourne Bypass Southern Section’ was originally intended to provide a connection between the southern end of Bradley Stoke Way and the A4174 Avon Ring Road. A first section of the bypass (now known as Great Stoke Way) was constructed and opened several years ago. It was constructed to dual carriageway standard between the B4057 Winterbourne Road and the roundabout junction with Hunts Ground Road. 1.8 The current proposal would complete the link between Great Stoke Way and the A4174 Avon Ring Road, traversing the main railway line and bypassing Stoke Gifford on its east side. It would also need to bypass new housing in 5040208/Report/Final 1.1 StokeGifford_Report_v5.doc STOKE GIFFORD BYPASS STUDY Policy Review and Scheme Appraisal the Hunts Ground area, which has been developed on land formerly safeguarded for the proposed route. 1.9 The main aim of the bypass would be to provide traffic relief to the road network in Stoke Gifford, which already suffers significant congestion during peak periods, particularly on Winterbourne Road, Hatchet Road, Brierley Furlong and Great Stoke Way. It would also accommodate further traffic growth generated by proposed developments at Harry Stoke and elsewhere in the North Fringe area. TERMS OF REFERENCE 1.10 The aims and objectives of the study, its requirements, scope of work and key deliverables were set out in the Consultant’s brief of October 2005. These were discussed and clarified at a meeting with Officers and Elected Members of the Council on 19 October 2005. 1.11 The Atkins proposal letter of 2 November 2005 defined our approach to the study, based on our understanding of its requirements. The main aims of the study were outlined as follows: ♦ To assess the benefits and implications of a new link road in Stoke Gifford, between Great Stoke Way and the A4174 Avon Ring Road. A key aim of this road would be to provide relief to Stoke Gifford from existing congestion and future developments; ♦ To carry out an appropriate assessment of alternatives (including bus only); ♦ To consider implications on the highway network and propose, where necessary, a package of complementary measures to ensure traffic uses an appropriate route, that road safety is improved and that use of sustainable modes (cycling, walking and public transport) is encouraged; ♦ To carry out a brief policy review to determine how the bypass fits with local and regional policies; ♦ To carry out a desktop review of major engineering issues; and ♦ To consider the deliverability of the scheme and funding sources. 1.12 It was understood from the outset that officers of SGC would undertake an environmental assessment of the scheme, and that this would not form part of the Atkins brief. 1.13 The SGC scope of work was subsequently extended to include the desktop review of engineering issues, identification of scheme alternatives and estimation of preliminary construction costs for scheme appraisal. 1.14 It was agreed at the meeting of 19 October 2005 that traffic forecasts for 2016 and 2031 would be produced using the Bristol Area Transport Study model (BATS2), which was updated to appraise the JLTP Greater Bristol Bus Network Major Scheme Business Case of July 2005. Officers and Elected Members also accepted that study time constraints and the preliminary nature of the assessments required at this stage would not allow for a major recalibration and revalidation of the BATS2 model. 5040208/Report/Final 1.2 StokeGifford_Report_v5.doc STOKE GIFFORD BYPASS STUDY Policy Review and Scheme Appraisal THIS REPORT 1.15 This report presents the results of the traffic modelling and economic analysis of the scheme.