A Research Plan for Assessing the Power and Energy Capability of a River Network Under an Integrated Wind/Hydro–Electric Dispatchable Régime

A RESEARCH PLAN FOR ASSESSING

THE POWER AND ENERGY CAPABILITY

OF A RIVER NETWORK UNDER AN

INTEGRATED WIND/HYDRO–ELECTRIC

DISPATCHABLE RÉGIME

John Czeslaw Banka

A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Applied Science Graduate Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto

A Research Plan for Assessing the Power and Energy Capability

of a River Network Under an Integrated Wind/Hydro–Electric

Dispatchable Régime

John Czeslaw Banka Master of Applied Science Graduate Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto 2017

Abstract

The world strives for more clean and renewable energy, but the amount of dispatchable energy in river networks is not accurately known and difficult to assess. When wind is integrated with water, the dispatchable yield can be greatly increased, but the uncertainty of the wind further degrades predictability. This thesis demonstrates how simulating the flows is a river network integrated with wind over a long time domain yields a solution. Time-shifting the freshet and pumped storage will ameliorate the seasonal summer drought; the risk of ice jams and uncontrolled flooding is reduced. An artificial market eliminates the issue of surplus energy from wind at night.

Furthermore, this thesis shows how the necessary infrastructure can be built to accomplish the goals of the intended research. While specific to Northern Ontario and sensitive to the lives of the

Native peoples living there, it indicates where the research might be applicable elsewhere in the world.

Acknowledgments

Professor Bryan Karney, who had the courage to accept me as his thesis student and provided support as it moved along.

Professor Christopher Robinson, who saw the possibility in my line of research and funded it so that it would become a reality.

Ms Hanna Savionak, who, as my partner, supported me through this learning process.

Thanks are also due to many others who played various roles in this research, from offering encouragement to offering constructive criticism. This work could not have evolved to what it is today without the many interactions in life that have helped to build this research effort and thereby contributed to its evolution. My gratitude also is extended to everyone who patiently listened to what I had to say.

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Table of Contents

Acknowledgments………………………………………………………………………………..iii

Table of Contents…………………………………………………………………………………iv

List of Plates…………….………………………………………….…………………………….xi

List of Figures…………………………………………………………….……………………...xii

List of Photographs………………………………………………….…………………..………xiii

Chapter 1 Introduction…………..……………………………………………………………….1

1.0 Preface……………………………………………………………………………………..1

1.1 Context…………………………………………………………………………………….3

1.2 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………..4

1.3 Original DHE Objectives………………………………………………………………….5

1.4 The Importance of Dispatchability………………………………………………………..8

1.5 Why Is This Research Relevant?...... 13

1.6 Organisation of this Thesis…………………………………..………………………...... 13

Chapter 2 Research Guidelines………………………...……………………………………….16

2.0 Organisation of the Research…………………………………………………………….16

2.01 PHASE I: Selection of Initial Dam Locations…………………………………………...17

2.02 PHASE II: Determining Damsite Parameters………………....…………………...…21

2.03 PHASE III: Develop the Streamflow Database…………………..…………………..22

2.04 PHASE IV: Parametric Turbine Analysis………………..…………………………...24

2.04.0 Background………………………………..………………….………………….24 iv

2.04.1 High-Head Turbine Analysis…………………………………………………….24

2.04.2 Low-Head Turbine Analysis……………………………………………………..28

2.05 PHASE V: Open Channel Flow Analysis, Water Inventory Simulation Program...…33

2.05.1 Open Channel Flow Analysis……………………………………………………33

2.05.2 Develop Water Inventory Simulation Program………………………………….36

2.06 PHASE VI: Database Design………………….………………………….………….40

2.07 PHASE VII: Optimising Dam Locations……………….………………….…...……41

2.08 PHASE VIII: Diverting the Freshet………………….………………….………...…41

2.09 PHASE IX: Pumped Storage……………………...…………………………………43

2.10 PHASE X: Incorporate Wind Power Input………..…………………………………45

2.11 PHASE XI: Surplus Energy………..………………………………………………...49

2.12 PHASE XII: Simulation Program Testing and Simulation Analysis….……….…….50

2.12.1 Simulation Program Testing……………………………………………………..50

2.12.2 Simulation Analysis……………………………………………………………...50

2.13 PHASE XIII: Least Cost Access Road and Least Cost Transmission Corridor..…….52

2.13.0 Background………………………………………………………………………52

2.13.1 Least Cost Access Road………………………………………………………….52

2.13.2 Least Cost Transmission Corridor……………………………………………….55

2.14 PHASE XIV: Final Report………………………………..……………………..……57

2.15 Discussion………………………………………………………..……………………57

Chapter 3 Analysis……………………………………………………………………………….59

3.0 Geographic Background…………………………………………………………………59

3.1 Hudson Bay Lowlands…………………………………………………….……………..59

3.2 Canadian Shield Plateau…………………………………………………………………60

3.3 Channelisation……………………………………………………………………………60

3.4 Flooding Scenarios……………………………………………………………………….60

3.5 Initial (Manual) Dam Placement…………………………………………………………61

3.5.1 River Cross-Section Profile………………………………………...……………61

3.5.2 Locating the First Dam…………………………………………………………..62

3.5.3 Placing the Remaining Dams………………………………… …………………63

3.5.4 Dam Table…………………………………………………… …………… ……64

3.6 Live Storage……………………………………………………… ……………………..64

3.7 Operating Concept…………………………………………………….…………………65

Chapter 4 Provisional Research Budget………………………………………………………...66

4.0 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………66

4.1 Travel and Conferences………………………………………………………………….66

4.2 Internet Web Site……………………………………………………………………...…67

4.3 Personal Communications……………………………………………………………….67

4.4 Provisional Research Budget……………………………………………………….……68

Chapter 5 Miscellaneous Technical Issues Including Security………………………………….70

5.0 Background…………………………………………………………………...………….70

5.1 Miscellaneous Technical Issues…………………………………………………….……70

5.1.1 Overgeneration………………………………………………………….………..70

5.1.2 Start/Stop Cycles and Excessive Equipment Wear………………………………71

5.1.3 Measuring Stress in Dams…………………………………………………….....73

5.1.4 Solar Power………………………………………………………………………74

5.1.5 Manufacturing Hydraulic Turbines...…………………………………………….75

5.1.6 Manufacturing Wind Turbine Blades……………………………………………76

5.1.7 Absorbing Surplus Energy……………………………………………………….76

5.1.8 Spalling at Waterline……………………………………………….…………….79

5.1.9 Risk Analysis…………………………………………………………………….82

5.1.9.01 Political Risk……………………………………………………..……82

5.1.9.02 Technological Risk…………………..………………………………..82

5.1.9.03 Commercial Risk………..………….………………………………….83

5.1.9.04 Sociological Risk……………….…….……………………………….83

5.1.9.05 Research Risk……………………….………..………………………..84

5.1.9.06 Researcher Risk……………………….…………..…………………...84

5.1.9.07 Funding Risk………………….……….………………….……………84

5.1.9.08 Earthquake and Electromagnetic Pulse Risk………..…..…….…….…85

5.1.9.09 Ice and Windstorm Risk………………………………..………………86

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5.1.9.10 Discussion…………………..…………………….……………………89

5.2 Research Security…………………………………………………………………….…..89

5.2.1 Access Security…………………………………………………………………..89

5.2.2 Data and Software Security…………………………………………………...…90

5.2.3 Back-Up Protocol……………………………………….………………………..92

Chapter 6 Environmental and Social Issues……………………………………………………..93

6.0 Background………………………………………………………………………………93

6.1 Environmental Issues………………………………………………………………….....93

6.1.1 Methyl-Mercury……………….……………………………..…………………..93

6.1.2 Mini Weather and Gauging Stations…………………..…………………………95

6.1.3 Loss of Riparian Habitat…………………………..……………………………..98

6.1.4 Forest Fire Protection………………………..……………………………..…….99

6.1.5 Headpond Ice………………………………………..…………...…..…………101

6.1.6 Climate Change and Air Pollution………….………..……………..…………..103

6.1.7 Oxygenation and Mixing of Stratified Headpond Layers………………………106

6.2 Social Issues………………………………………………………...…..………………107

6.2.0 Background……………………..……………………………………...……….107

6.2.1 Indigenous Issues………………………..………………………………..….…107

6.2.2 New Communities………………………..…………………………….....……110

Chapter 7 Issues Facing Implementation………………………………………………………113

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7.0 Background……………………………………………………………………..………113

7.1 Consent…………………………………………………………………………………113

7.2 Corporate Structure………………………………………………………..……………114

7.3 Government Approvals………………………………….…………………………...…116

7.4 Project Capital Cost………………………………………...……………..……………117

7.4.01 Background……………………………………………………………..………117

7.4.02 Cooperative Contracting……………………………………………..…………118

7.4.03 Contractor Bidding…………………………………………………………...…119

7.4.04 Alternative Consideration………………………………………………………120

7.4.05 Profit Margin and Bonus……………………………………..…………………121

7.4.06 Sub-Trade Scheduling…………………..…………….………...………………122

7.4.07 Road Construction…………………………………………..………………….123

7.4.08 Transmission Corridor………………………….………………………………126

7.4.09 Project Size……………………………………………………………………..128

7.4.10 Project Unit Costs………………………………………………………………128

7.4.11 Estimated Project Cost (Preliminary)…………………………………………..131

7.5 Revenue and Expenses…………………………………………………………………131

7.6 Financing……………………………………………………………………………….134

Chapter 8 International Opportunities…………………………………………………………137

8.0 Background……………………………………………………………………………..137

8.1 Moving Water Across Continents………………………………………………………137

8.2 Siberia…………………………………………………………………………………..140

Chapter 9 Concluding Remarks………………………………………………………………..143

References.……………………………...………………………………………………………145

List of Acronyms……………………………………………………………………………….148

List of Plates

Plate 1 – Gantt Chart……………………………………………………………………….…….16

Plate 2 – Cross Section of Severn River Watershed Including Two Major Tributaries………....21

List of Sketches and Figures

Sketch 1 – Four scenarios for confinement of water in headponds…………………………….....7

Sketch 2 – Development of Centreline Route………………………………………..…………..18

Sketch 3 – High-Head Powerhouse…………………………………………………………..….26

Sketch 4 – Low-Head Turbine……………………………………………………………...... …30

Sketch 5 – Spalling at Waterline……………………………………...………………………….81

Figure 1 – District of Kenora………………………………………………………………...……2

Figure 2 – Air pollution from all sources in the United States…………….…………………….13

Figure 3 – Wind Atlas of Canada…………………………………..……………………………46

Figure 4 – Three Climatic Cells…………………………………………………………...……105

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List of Photographs

Photograph 1 – Tailrace………………………………………………………………………….32

Photograph 2 – Transmission Lines……………………………………………………………...56

Photograph 3 – Pantheon, Rome…………………………………………………………………80

Photograph 4 – Manitoba Hydro Bipole 1 and Bipole 2 Transmission Lines…………………...88

Photograph 5 – Mini Weather Station………………………………………………………...…96

Photograph 6 – Lena River………………………………………………..……………………142

Photograph 7 – Lena River………………………………………………..……………………142

Photograph 8 – Lena River………………………………………………..……………………142

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Chapter 1 Introduction

1.0 Preface

This thesis describes how to investigate Dispatchable Hydro-Electricity (DHE) in a research setting. It examines an entire watershed and not individual hydro-electric sites, which has been the historic practice. Such an approach has seldom been attempted before over a large network of dams; in fact, the network presented in Plate 2 is unprecedented. Two advances now make the analysis of watershed under DHE possible: First, advances in computing power makes feasible the simulation of complex watersheds with numerous major tributaries. Second, access to a reliable low-head turbine technology, developed in part by the author, allows almost all of the head in a river to be used. In this context, “all” means that portion of the head that is cost-effective to develop, excluding the highest reaches where streamflow is too low and/or the heads are too low.

Later, the thesis goes on to discuss how a successful outcome to the research can be implemented. Accordingly, throughout reference is made to the Severn River Watershed in Northern Ontario, one of four main rivers in the Patricia Portion of the District of Kenora. This river is intended to be used as a model for the research so that the research method outlined in the first half of this thesis can be grounded in reality.

What makes DHE so powerful is its integration with wind energy. Wind is limited primarily by the capital available for the construction of wind turbines; water is always finite, limited mainly by precipitation. Wind is an intermittent source of energy and thus not dispatchable. However, with water acting as a 100% back up, the inclusion of wind greatly extends the availability of the finite amount of water that is present at any given moment. In effect, while on its own wind is not dispatchable, when it is backed up by water it effectively becomes a pseudo-dispatchable source. Finite water resources can be augmented by pumped storage techniques, allowing the same water to be used in generation twice on successive days during the peak demand period.

The implications of DHE are profound. First, the amount of power and energy that can be attained is greatly enhanced. A much greater hydraulic generating component is required to utilise the

The Patricia Portion lies north of the Albany River. Albany thenorth of The lies Portion Patricia From west to east, the four major rivers are Severn, Winisk, Albany and Attawapiskat, are Severn, major fourrivers the east, Fromtowest

Figure 1: District of Kenora

3 greater amount of water that is available, partly because less water is used when the wind is blowing, and partly because pumped storage enables the headponds to be fully charged each morning. A third factor contributing to the volumes of available water is headpond drawdown of the live storage component, where over the course of the day the headpond surface can be reduced slightly; this volume is replenished at night (when generation is stopped) by the local surface runoff, groundwater infeed, and occasionally by direct precipitation.

Second, the desire to make electricity available during the peak demand times of the day (herein defined as 0600h to 2200h) will result in surplus energy produced, mainly at night and largely from wind resources. Surplus energy is simply electricity for which there is no immediate market demand. This surplus can be used to make energy intensive products while displacing the use of fossil fuels, mainly natural gas, as well in driving pumped storage. Furthermore, the layout of the dams whereby the full head of the river is utilised, combined with the pumped storage infrastructure powered largely by surplus energy, permits the flow of an entire river to be reversed. This allows water to be economically transported from one watershed to the next and thus across continents from places where water is abundant to where it is scarce.

DHE is a very powerful concept, and very complex. The analysis of the first watershed is expected to take a team of a dozen researchers five to seven years and cost in excess of $6 million. The watershed chosen – some 110,000 km2 – is of sufficient size to demonstrate DHE in a rigorous manner but this also involves considerable analytic detail. The analysis of subsequent watersheds will take fewer resources with an experienced team and a proven simulation program in hand. The anticipated results will speak for themselves.

1.1 Context

Before the research procedures are discussed in detail, some context will be useful. A proper introduction follows forthwith. The original DHE objectives are included next; there is one revision that quadruples the scope of the original simulation effort, but in doing so, it allows a comparison of the effect of local flooding on the yield of power and energy. This comparison can be used as a basis to support what might be the appropriate level of flooding within the watershed.

The importance of dispatchability is discussed as this is one of the basic tenets on which the research is founded. Quite simply, the concepts presented herein will only be an improvement on

4 what has gone before if the power and energy output can closely track the ever-changing grid demand in a timely manner. The key is to convert wind energy – a non-dispatchable energy source – into a dispatchable source as it is integrated with water.

This chapter closes with a discussion of the relevance of the research and how the thesis is organised. The previous paragraph has already given part of the answer regarding its relevance but there is a more complex response. The research points the way to achieving a cleaner atmosphere and a possible reduction in early deaths from breathing air contaminated with PM0.25 particles resulting from the combustion of coal. Also, the ability to absorb surplus energy in the manufacture of energy-intensive products as is suggested makes much more sense than dumping surplus electricity for whatever it might fetch on the North American electricity grid. The economic benefits are obvious, particularly for an area of Canada that is chronically short of good employment opportunities. The advantages for the First Nations populations, all living is isolated fly-in communities with no roads to connect to the rest of the country, poor schooling, very basic health care, and limited employment possibilities, are legion.

1.2 Introduction

The proposed research into Dispatchable Hydro-Electricity (DHE) involves a coordinated use of water in a river system where all of the head is used cost-effectively in power generation. The research aims to show that such a coordinated approach not only can make available more dispatchable power during peak demand periods, but that it also can be better integrated with erratic and infirm wind and solar sources. The research will examine the Severn River Watershed, found next to the Manitoba border with Ontario just south of Hudson Bay. (The Severn River is one of four major undeveloped rivers in the Patricia Portion of the District of Kenora.) Wind is important because its supply can be built as much as desired over Hudson Bay, restricted only by capital utilisation considerations; as such, it can greatly extend finite water resources. At such high latitudes, solar is of less importance and for simplicity will be ignored in the initial analysis.

Four scenarios for the research have been identified, allowing an increasing amount of water to be retained in each headpond. The first scenario will not conform to the DHE premise that all of the head be used; the other three scenarios will conform. The latter two scenarios will contain controlled flooding designed to enhance the power generation potential. In the last case, “extensive” does not mean the creation of huge lakes as has been done in Québec. It is recognised

5 that extensive flooding can lead to unwanted, albeit temporary, health issues in the local population; however, almost all adverse environmental impacts are remediated by nature over a few decades. The Original Research Objectives for DHE are stated in Section 1.3.

While the research is involved with the technical aspects of determining the amount of power and energy that can be recovered, both environmental and social issues also are discussed. The research is not impeded by environmental or social concerns, but they are included in the interest of providing a full and frank discussion. Once the potential is known under DHE, then it is known what is lost if environment or social restrictions result in a sub-optimal development outcome.

A Gantt Chart accompanies this document showing the timeline for the various steps identified and the research resources necessary for their completion. A detailed description of each of the steps outlined in the Gantt Chart are presented in Chapter 2.

Outlined below are the main objectives set for executing the research. Preparing the simulation for conformity with the first scenario of revised Objective 5 might deviate slightly from the steps presented below but the other three follows each of them closely.

1.3 Original DHE Objectives

In March 2016 as this research was being planned, a set of ten technical research objectives was drafted, augmented by an eleventh social objective. To date, only the fifth objective has been modified to include four variants as revised below (see Sketch 1). 1. Capture all of the energy that is feasible in a river network. 2. Generate at all times in a dispatchable manner when energy is most needed by the grid, with hydraulic generation curtailed at all other times. 3. Where appropriate, employ low-head turbines between the high head sites so that no drop in elevation, or head, is lost; low-head sites will advance stored water closer to the next high- head site resulting in a shorter travel time and greater sustained on-peak generation. 4. Time-shift the freshet (spring flood) to later in the summer to offset the late summer drought through the use of impoundment reservoirs. 5. Confine headpond reservoirs between the river banks on the major rivers and mitigate flooding. (Revised below) 6. Spill no water unharnessed.

7. Incorporate solar and off-shore wind energy where available. 8. Include pumped storage as a means for additional supplementation of streamflow during the late summer drought. 9. Ensure that transmission is not congested between the various generating sites and, in particular, in the transmission lines leading out to markets; most of the electricity is intended for export from Ontario. 10. Provide a productive use for all the surplus energy which will arise from time to time, including absorbing all of the surplus energy created in other parts of the Province, thereby eliminating the issue of negative rates once and for all.

Those are the technical requirements, but there is an eleventh objective which places a social responsibility on any development which proceeds as a result of this research:

11. Provide education, training, employment, and a better lifestyle for Native people who are resident within each developed watershed – in other words, provide them with hope for a better future for their children

Since these objectives were written well over a year ago, the fifth objective should now read:

5. Confine headpond reservoirs between the river banks on the major rivers and mitigate flooding as much as possible per the following four scenarios (see Sketch 1): • Baseline with no flooding or diking (the river is confined to its original channel); • Baseline with no flooding but with diking and levees (the river is confined to its original channel); • Intermediate with some flooding plus diking and levees; and, • Extensive flooding with water confined largely by the geography but also including diking and levees where appropriate.

The four flooding scenarios provide a progressively increasing degree of inundation. It will be possible to track the results from the simulation against the degree of flooding and discover if there is any meaningful relationship between the two. (Clearly, the expectation is that as flooding is increased, the amount of energy attained should also increase, but beyond this statement of the obvious, there might be more to be uncovered.)

Sketch 1: Four scenarios for confinement of water in headponds

1.4 The Importance of Dispatchability

Throughout this thesis, the term “dispatchable” is used. This term has a very specific meaning in relation to the electricity generation industry, as will be described and defined in the following paragraphs.

Electricity is an energy source unlike all others. It must be used as it is created, which means that supply and demand must be in close balance with each other at all times. Thankfully, there is some “wiggle room” in a large electricity grid (but not much), so it is not necessary to have an exact match of production and use, but the two must be very closely aligned.

In an alternating current (AC) system, if the energy generated exceeds the energy demanded by the grid, the frequency will rise; alternatively, if the energy demanded is greater than the energy input into the grid, the frequency will drop. The frequency standard is 60 Hz ± 0.5 Hz. The grid has a degree of resilience that grows with its size. In Ontario, given the large size of the grid, there would have to be a considerable mismatch between demand and supply before the frequency could move beyond the specified tolerance range.

In a direct current (DC) system, such as in the long distance transmission network recommended in Section 2.13.2, there is a similar response. Here, if more energy is put into the transmission network than is taken out, the voltage will rise; conversely, if more energy is taken out than is put into the network, the voltage will drop. The voltage standard will vary according to the specifications of each transmission line segment.

Despite the size of the grid enhancing the reliability of the frequency of delivered AC power, it remains critical for supply to closely match demand. In Ontario, it is the Independent Electricity System Operator, or IESO, that is responsible for ensuring that supply and demand coincide. Dispatch orders are issued every five minutes as power inputs are altered to meet the ever-changing market demand, with the expectation that the power requested will be on-line within the following five minutes without exception. The IESO uses a very sophisticated forecasting system that takes into account historic demand, weather, day of the week, transmission congestion, public events, and other factors when rendering its dispatch orders. These forecasts and the resulting demand can be tracked on the IESO website1.

There are four primary sources of electric energy: • Dispatchable fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) • Nuclear (uranium) • Intermittent renewable (wind, solar) • Dispatchable renewable (water) Of all these sources, only the first and the last are dispatchable whereas the other two are not. The issue is the ability to match generation output to grid demand in a timely manner. With fossil fuels and hydraulic sources, it is possible to increase or decrease the power output at will within the capacity limitations of the generating equipment in a timely manner to match the dispatch orders received from the grid authority. Coal (and rarely oil) are used to create steam to drive steam turbines; natural gas and water directly drive gas and hydraulic turbines respectively. Diesel oil is used to power diesel engines to drive generators on remote sites not connected to the grid, such as at remote Native communities, but this is a very inefficient and expensive operation. (An entire year’s worth of diesel fuel must be trucked in every winter over ice roads.)

With steam turbines, a head of steam must be constantly maintained at the minimum generating level if any power is to be produced within the five-minute time limit; maintaining units on “standby” in this state of readiness results in wasted fuel since no generation is taking place while fuel is burned to keep the head of steam on standby. Starting a coal plant from a cold start might take up to a day or more. With natural gas turbines, it can take up to 30 minutes for a unit to “spin- up” to operating speed from a cold start; units are kept in operation on standby spinning just below the speed at which power can be produced – this is called a “spinning reserve”. Again, maintaining this state of readiness results in wasted fuel. Given that fuel is being combusted and emissions are being made while on standby, consuming this wasted fuel is akin to “all pollution and no juice”.

Nuclear plants convert the heat of fission into steam, which then drives a steam turbine. This is a continuous process with little opportunity for variation in output – certainly not within a period of five minutes – and thus nuclear power is not dispatchable within the time constraint stated. Nuclear power is best suited to covering the base load, allowing the variable sources to cover the changing load components of demand above the base. Note that nuclear power does not contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. However, since fissile material is a finite resource on the planet, nuclear power is not a renewable source of energy. Nuclear fuels are not only finite, but they are also wasting in place as the fissile reactions over time from natural radioactive decay gradually turns

10 all of these nuclear energy fuels into lead, which is inert. In other words, nuclear fuels are gradually decaying and becoming worthless as energy sources, albeit over millions of years.

Output from solar and wind power is intermittent, being at the mercy of nature regarding when the sun shines and when the wind blows. The incorporation of solar and wind introduces another variable into the supply/demand mix as there is no way to absolutely predict their output compared to the other power sources. Since it is not possible to exert control over the output from solar and wind installations without curtailment and lost opportunity, energy from these facilities is not dispatchable. However, both are renewable, non-polluting, and do not emit greenhouse gases.

The erratic output of solar and especially wind installations might appear to be troublesome, and there are challenges to be sure, but there are advantages as well. Since solar power largely coincides with the peak hours of grid demand, its output can always be useful. The greater challenge is the integration of wind power into the grid. This breaks out into two issues: erratic output and surplus energy generation. In solving these issues, it is assumed that power and energy utilisation is to be maximised and that there will be no curtailment or lost opportunity.

The erratic output from wind turbines, caused by wind gusts, can be smoothed by the deployment of flywheel motor/generators2. The concept is quite simple: When the wind power is excessive, the flywheel acts as a motor and accelerates its rotational speed, storing most of the excess energy as angular momentum; when the wind power is diminished, the momentum in the flywheel drives the motor which now acts as a generator and decelerates its rotational speed, depleting the energy previously stored as it is converted into electricity. This is not a perfect solution but as a first method to be applied, it can attenuate the spikes in the output of the wind turbines and smooth the aggregate output to a rate of change which the hydraulic turbines can follow inversely. In combination, the two can provide a steady output overall.

Surplus energy is a completely different matter. As stated, if curtailment is not an available option, all the wind power that can be created will be put into the grid. Clearly, at times this will result in the generation of electric energy for which there is no demand. Yet, also as stated earlier, electricity must be used as it is created. The excess wind power will put the grid out of balance, but it can be put back into balance if sufficient artificial demand is made available to offset the surplus just as it arises and declines. Creating this artificial demand is discussed much later in this thesis (see PHASE XI: Surplus Energy).

Surplus energy can also arise from situations when there is too much water. Here, the choice is either to spill water unharnessed down the spillway or to generate power and energy for which again there is no immediate demand. If curtailment through spillage is not an option, an artificial demand must be created as will be discussed later in PHASE XI.

The issue of too much water during the freshet can be mitigated by diverting a significant amount of water at the peak into Impoundment Reservoirs. This pares the amount of surplus energy and the need for spillage. It also effectively time-shifts the use of this water to later in the summer for release during the late summer drought when streamflow dips to half its annual average.

In an integrated electricity generation system that combines nuclear, solar, water, and wind (it is assumed that fossil fuel sources are no longer used or desired), there is a synergy which can be identified. Of all the energy sources, finite fuel restrictions limit only hydro-electricity; all the others can be built to capacities limited only by the capital available for their construction. In an integrated system with nuclear power taking up the base load, finite water resources can be greatly extended by the introduction of solar and wind power generation. This concept is key to the research plan that follows. Hydraulic power is dispatchable and can be the swing producer as solar and wind output varies, but water resources are always finite at any given moment. Solar and wind output is limited only by capital resources and can therefore be built to a capacity which complements the available water resources in an economically efficient manner. The intention is to build a wind farm on Hudson Bay, which is shallow and practically “infinite” in size.

Finding what the limits are for solar and wind, and what the overall output might be expected from all three, is the overall research objective (solar will be deferred to further research). This objective can only be realised because, alone among all the renewable energy sources, hydraulic power is dispatchable. The deployment of a pumped storage strategy (PHASE IX: Pumped Storage) also extends the amount of water available; pumped storage allows water to be used twice in generation, effectively time-shifting the use of water while absorbing some surplus energy at the same time.

Hydraulic units are capable of spinning up in well under five minutes from a dead start; when the turbines are all shut down, water can be stored behind the dam for use later – there is no pollution and no wasted water while hydraulic turbines are on standby. Nor does there have to be any lost opportunity with hydraulic units. Of the four primary sources of electric energy listed earlier, only water is renewable, sustainable, non-polluting, and does not emit greenhouse gases through its use.

1.5 Why Is This Research Relevant?

The research was envisioned as an engineering investigation into finding the energy potential of a river – any river – with the appropriate input datasets. Many people live next to rivers and, were a river to be developed for its hydro-electric potential, such developments would have a profound effect on the lives of these people. Thus, a socio-economic view became a tangential part of the research although it will not have any direct effect on the research and the engineering results per se. In the end, it was concluded that the research also would have a much wider impact, not only on the river inhabitants who are directly affected, but also on a greater population. If the energy ultimately produced as a result of a successful implementation of the research could result in a cleaner atmosphere through the displacement of fossil fuel energy production3, all living downwind in the same airshed (most unknowingly) would enjoy breathing cleaner air. (See Figure 1)

The world needs more clean, renewable, and sustainable energy, and in particular it needs dispatchable energy to integrate with the non-dispatchable sources which are also clean, renewable, and sustainable, but not reliable. Perhaps it is fortunate that the four Northern Ontario rivers mentioned are so remote that there are no access roads, preserving them in an undeveloped state for this moment in time: A moment when coal is claimed to be clean, when we know it is not. A moment when First Nations peoples have awakened to the realisation that their lives matter. A moment when we realise that air pollution, even when invisible and not noticed, can kill just the same. This research cannot right all the wrongs of the past, but it can make for a better future.

There is a secondary reason motivating this research. The present practice of dumping surplus electricity into the North American grid for whatever it will fetch, and paying negative rates on occasion as a bribe to ensure its removal from the Ontario grid, is unacceptable, especially to hydro ratepayers. This thesis offers a definitive solution to this problem, a solution that can save the Province and its people billions of dollars.

1.6 Organisation of this Thesis

There are two themes running through this thesis. The first part, taking up most of the document, describes how research can be conducted to determine the recoverable amount of power and energy that exists in a river system. The yield must be attained in a cost-effective and commercial manner.

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tation

This This graphic shows the annual average concentrations of fine particulates from U.S. sources of combustion emissions from (a) electric power generation; (b) industry; (c) commercial and residential sources; (d) road transportation; (e) marine transpor allsources. (h) sources; allcombustion of sum (g) railtransportation; (f)

Figure 1: Air pollution from all sources in the United States Air pollution from electricity generation is shown in Panel (a)

There are some features that are suggested that will require investigation with regard to their financial viability – the inclusion of Temporary Storage Weirs above the highest dams (by elevation) and the Impoundment Weirs for diverting the freshet are two examples.

The creation of a simulation program to model the flow of water through the river network and the various headponds and powerhouses is a key feature of this first part. This is the main analytic tool that will be used to assess the amount of power and energy that can be attained. Keep in mind that this output is only desired during the peak demand hours as it is assumed that the base load outside the peak is covered by nuclear and run-of-the-river resources. However, it is recognised that energy will inevitably be produced outside of the peak, especially when wind is integrated into the supply mix. Wind is expected to greatly boost the amount of dispatchable power and energy that can be made available, but it will also result in surplus energy for which there is no market demand. A profitable artificial market can be created for this power and energy, as discussed in PHASE XI.

The latter part of this thesis examines, as a first pass, what it might take to actually build the system suggested in the first part. This is not to say that such a system will be built, but it gives a glimpse of the issues and the costs, and yes, the profitability, that such a development might entail. Peering into the future is always fraught, and this is no exception. But we must always look forward to where we are going and not backward to where we have already been.

Chapter 2 Research Guidelines

2.0 Organisation of the Research

The research is divided into a series of 14 phases, where each phase involves a specific work unit of the research. In general, the phases start with a geographic analysis for the purpose of gathering data on the specific watershed under study; this data is then used in the development of a computer simulation program which models the watershed. The simulation program incorporates streamflow and integrates wind energy plus numerous constraints to reflect the reality of the actual situation in a specific watershed. The latter phases consist of analysis of the various simulation scenarios that are devised for the simulation program to process. The work assignment and time allocation for each phase is shown on the Gantt Chart (Page 17).

The objective of the research is to maximise the amount of electric energy that can be produced during the peak demand hours with a minimal amount of energy produced at off-peak times. The peak demand hours are provisionally defined as daily 0600h through 2200h, statutory holidays and weekends excepted. Excluding holidays, cumulative on-peak time is 80 hours per week; cumulative off-peak time is 88 hours.

Since wind is being integrated into the system, it is recognised that the energy output will never be zero over the entire off-peak period, but that the variable demand can be zero when the base load of the grid is allocated entirely to nuclear, run-of-the-river, and existing wind farms outside of the peak demand hours. Accordingly, the model reports on the amount of surplus energy which is produced, and when, so that it can be examined in a post analysis scenario for use in an alternative and productive manner. Objective 10 above (Section 1.3) provides for the accommodation of the productive use of surplus energy so that it does not become a burden on the electricity system through dumping it at low or negative prices on the North American electricity market. In fact, it might be possible for the artificial demand created to absorb the surplus energy created during off-peak times to also absorb surpluses elsewhere in the Ontario grid. This is one facet of the research that will be of interest to determine.

15 16

Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Managing Director Organise and Hiring Draft Flowchart Project Management Project Management Project Management

Administrative Assistant/ Software Configuration Manager/ Part Time Duties as Required Full Time Duties Full Time Duties Full Time Duties Systems Manager

PHASE VIII - PHASE XIII - Geographic Analyst 1 PHASE I - Initial Dam Locations PHASE II - Damsite Parameters PHASE VIII - PHASE VII - Impoundment PHASE X - Section 2.13.1 Model Testing Impoundment Reservoirs Revise Damsite Parameters Reservoirs Wind Database Least Cost Access Road PHASE VIII - PHASE XIII - Geographic Analyst 2 PHASE I - Initial Dam Locations PHASE II - Damsite Parameters PHASE VIII - PHASE VII - Impoundment PHASE X - Section 2.13.1 Model Testing Impoundment Reservoirs Revise Damsite Parameters Reservoirs Wind Database Least Cost Access Road PHASE VIII - PHASE XIII - Geographic Analyst 3 PHASE I - PHASE III - Streamflow Database PHASE II - Damsite Parameters PHASE VIII - PHASE VII - Impoundment PHASE X - Section 2.13.1 Model Testing Initial Dam Locations Impoundment Reservoirs Revise Damsite Parameters Reservoirs Wind Database Least Cost Access Road

PHASE VI - PHASE VII - PHASE VIII - Hydraulic Engineer PHASE PHASE V Open Channel PHASE VI - Open channel flow Optimise Impoundment Part Time as Required Model Testing IV Flow Dam Locations Reservoirs

Software Architect PHASE VII - Part Time as required Part Time as required Part Time as required

PHASE VII PHASE VII PHASE VII PHASE VII PHASE VII PHASE VII PHASE IX PHASE X PHASE XI PHASE XII Model Model Model Model Model Incorporate Optimise Incorporate Incorporate Incorporate Programmer/Analyst 1 A Two Multiple Dams Two Branches Multiple Predictive Dam Capturing Pumped Wind Model Testing Single Dam Dams In Series In Confluence Branches Routine Locations the Freshet Storage Energy Model Model Model Model Model Incorporate Optimise Incorporate Incorporate Incorporate Programmer/Analyst 2 A Two Multiple Dams Two Branches Multiple Predictive Dam Capturing Pumped Wind Model Testing Single Dam Dams In Series In Confluence Branches Routine Locations the Freshet Storage Energy Make Model Model Model Model Incorporate Optimise Incorporate Incorporate Incorporate Programmer/Analyst 3 Data- Two Multiple Dams Two Branches Multiple Predictive Dam Capturing Pumped Wind Model Testing base Dams In Series In Confluence Branches Routine Locations the Freshet Storage Energy

Database Specialist PHASE VIII PHASE VIII PHASE VIII

PHASE XII - PHASE XII - Wind Energy Engineer Wind Incorporate Model Testing Database Wind Energy

First Nation Consultant

Number Involved 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

Year Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

PHASES XI, XVII - Managing Director Project Management Project Management Project Management Analysis of Surplus Energy and Final Report

Administrative Assistant/ Software Configuration Manager/ Full Time Duties Full Time Duties Full Time Duties Part Time Duties as Required Systems Manager

PHASE XVI - Geographic Analyst 1 Least Cost PHASE XIV - Part Time Duties as Required PHASE XIV - Part Time Duties as Required PHASE XIV - Transmission Corridor Part Time Duties as Required PHASE XVI - Geographic Analyst 2 Least Cost Transmission Corridor PHASE XVI - Geographic Analyst 3 Least Cost Transmission Corridor

PHASE XIV - Hydraulic Engineer PHASE XIV - Model Operation and Analysis PHASE XIV - Model Operation and Analysis Model PHASE XVII - Final report Operation and Analysis

Software Architect Part Time as required

PHASE XIV - Programmer/Analyst 1 PHASE XIV - Part Time Duties as Required PHASE XIV - Part Time Duties as Required Part Time Duties as Required

Programmer/Analyst 2

Programmer/Analyst 3

Database Specialist

PHASE XIV - Wind Energy Engineer PHASE XIV - Model Operation and Analysis PHASE XIV - Model Operation and Analysis Model PHASE XVII - Final report Operation and Analysis

First Nation Consultant Part Time Duties as Required Part Time Duties as Required Part Time Duties as Required Part Time Duties as Required

Number Involved 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 5

Plate 1: Gantt Chart

2.01 PHASE I: Selection of Initial Dam Locations

To begin the research, the watershed is to be populated with dams. It does not matter how accurately the initial sites are chosen since the method outlined will converge on an optimum solution, but if care is taken convergence can be achieved faster. The method involves finding the Centreline Route of the river, plotting the cross-section as illustrated in Plate 2, and then selecting what appears to be the better sites as explained below.

The initial dam locations will be selected manually based on the following details: Three Geographic Analysts will be engaged in all of the physical geographic work; this number of analysts will ensure timely completion of the work and its continuity should one of them leave the team. Their first step will be to plot the Centreline Route of the river network:  For each node on one riverbank, its nearest neighbour is found on the opposite bank, per the associated digital map.  The line between them is bisected; a line joining these midpoints is the Centreline Route.  With programming assistance, this can be automated partially as a routine embedded into ArcGIS. It is assumed that ArcGIS software (esri.com) will be used for geographic analysis, although other software might also be suitable.  All features on the river network are in relation to a location on the Centreline Route for the relevant river position without exception.

The Centreline Route, developed as described above, can and will change with water surface elevation. However, for it to be reproducible by others, the digital map boundaries of the river are considered absolute and the resulting centreline based on these boundaries will be used throughout the analysis unaltered regardless of the elevation of the river surface. The Centreline Route will be revisited in PHASE V when examining open channel flows; knowing the details of its derivation will be an advantage there.

Next, all features of interest for the impending analysis are located on the Centreline Route:  Lakes, bays;  Rapids;  Falls;  Contour elevations and specific elevations (at lakes);

Sketch 2: Development of Centreline Route

 Geographic place names;  Confluences with other major rivers;  Existing dams; and,  Channelisation. From this data, the cross-section of the river network can be plotted to show the general slope of the river and drops at rapids and falls. This reveals where the high-head prospects are and dams can be placed at the suitable locations first. The use of a digital elevation model (DEM) =[=will bring the vertical resolution to one metre or better. Prospective sites are examined for natural water confinement and if necessary the dam locations might be adjusted slightly to more suitable sites to reduce or eliminate the need for diking or levees. This is especially pertinent to the first two baseline scenarios. Once all the high-head sites have been set, low-head sites will be placed to take up the unutilised head that remains. Plate 2 shows what the cross section might look like for the Severn River; the Geographic Analysts will perform this work to a greater level of accuracy and include many more tributaries than those included for illustrative purposes in Plate 2.

Above the highest powerhouses (by maximum headpond surface elevation), Temporary Storage Weirs with a head of about two metres are located to provide a boost in water available each morning. These weirs are located in zones where it is uneconomic to generate electricity and will collect water over night. Weirs just safely overflow when they are full, resuming the streamflow into the next downstream headpond. Their full contents undergo a controlled release in the morning to get generation off to an excellent start. This “slug” of water from the weir combines with the live storage of the first headpond, allowing the first powerhouse to generate at high intensity, thereby contributing to meeting the rapidly rising demand of the grid. With such a large release of water through the turbines, this water will propagate towards the next powerhouse where the process can be repeated. However, the second powerhouse likely already is generating and its headpond will be drawn down slightly, so the impact will be muted slightly here as the headpond is filled to near maximum first before intense generation begins to get the most power possible.

Usually, the dams are close together where weirs are used to advantage. In Plate 2, the Fawn River has a weir; there are five dams within 50 km of it which the water can easily traverse in about 12 hours, all within the peak demand period of a weekday. However, it is likely that by the time the slug of water reached the fifth dam it is greatly dissipated and barely discernable.

Normally one weir will suffice per river branch, but a second weir might be considered if the topology is advantageous and the first weir fills too quickly. All dams and weirs are assumed to be equipped with automatic gates or valves for the controlled release of water, with all being managed from a central monitoring station.

A cross-section plot of the resulting river profile can be prepared as a visual exhibit once the manual dam locations are set. See the Cross-Section of the Severn River, Plate 2.

2.02 PHASE II: Determining Damsite Parameters

For each dam, the following parameters will have to be determined by the Geographic Analysts to define the live storage volume:  Maximum allowable head (this is defined by the spillway sill elevation);  Headpond surface area at maximum allowable head;  Shoreline length at maximum allowable head;  Minimum allowable head;  Headpond area at minimum allowable head; and,  Shoreline length at minimum allowable head.

Unless better information becomes available, a shoreline slope of 30o to the horizontal plane will be assumed when calculating headpond volumes. The live storage volume is defined as that volume of water resident within each headpond above the minimum headpond elevation level. This is the volume of water which is immediately available for power generation. Given the values listed above. a simple algorithm can relate the actual head to the remaining live storage volume as follows:

First, if the banks of the headpond were perfectly vertical, the live storage volume can be described as: 6 VLS = AHP · (h – hMIN) · 10

3 Where VLS is the Live Storage Volume (m ) 2 AHP is the Headpond Surface Area (km ) h is the Headpond Elevation (m) (dynamic variable)

hMIN is the Minimum Allowable Headpond Elevation (m)

[email protected] A scalable .pdf file is available author: fromfileavailable is the Ascalable .pdf

Plate 2 – Severn River Watershed in Profile Including Two Major Tributaries

Since the headpond banks are assumed to slope at 30o to the horizontal, the above formula overstates the headpond volume and must be corrected by subtracting the excess volume:

6 2 o 3 VLS = AHP · (h – hMIN) · 10 – LS · (h – hMIN) · cos(30 ) · 10

Where LS is the Shoreline Length (km)

Note that when the headpond elevation “h” reaches hMIN, there is no headpond storage available and VLS is zero as expected. The headpond elevation can never exceed the Maximum Allowable

Head hMAX since the excess water will escape down the spillway.

Knowing the headpond area and the shoreline length at the minimum allowable head will be used later in the research to refine the above algorithm with respect to the average shoreline gradient. Each headpond is expected to have a slightly different gradient characteristic, and the 30o assumed above will drop out of use in favour of the new gradient figure. Determining the speed at which water moves between two dams also will be required. However, this is a very complex issue and is discussed separately and in detail in Phase V under open channel flows.

2.03 PHASE III: Develop the Streamflow Database

Within each watershed, there is at least one recording gauge monitored by Environment Canada providing the average flow over each 24 hour period. However, it is necessary to know the streamflow at each damsite/powerhouse at five-minute intervals throughout the entire watershed for analytic purposes. From only a single recorded figure, it is possible to estimate the flow at each powerhouse in the river network and then restate this flow in five-minute intervals.

The drainage area for each prospective dam is determined. These areas are nested as each area overlaps the previous one moving upstream from the river outlet; the lowest drainage area at the outlet is the entire watershed. From the drainage area of each dam and the drainage area value reported at the gauge, the proportion of daily flow at each dam can be estimated. The accuracy of this relies on the assumption that the same precipitation falls everywhere on every unit of area of the watershed and that the ground has a constant permeability. In reality, there will be variations over large areas and this courageous assumption will introduce a modest bias into the data. (See Section 6.1.2 for a suggestion on how the accuracy can be greatly improved in a built system.) The daily figures are divided by 288 to obtain uniform five-minute interval values for each day.

At this point more work is needed, however, since what has been defined is a 24 hour step function divided into five-minute values; there will be an abrupt jump in value from one day to the next each midnight when reality dictates a smooth transition from one day to the next. This can be addressed though applying uniform cubic splines to obtain points which can define a smooth (differentiable) curve and thus a smooth transition from one day to the next. In this application, it is not a smooth curve that is desired but rather the points that define the smooth curve. These points will yield a five-minute step function with the value at the start of each of the 288 daily periods held constant for its five-minute duration. It is recognised that the calculations described that are necessary to achieve the five-minute values will not be an exact representation of what might have happened in nature, but it does not have to be. What is important is that the approach taken will model nature with reasonable faithfulness and in this respect it can be said that in following these steps, this portion of the work will have succeeded.

Once the five-minute step values are obtained, the entire series of values have to be integrated to sum up the total flow and compare it to the total monthly flow and total annual flow respectively, as reported by Environment Canada. Any discrepancy can be addressed in a preliminary way by multiplying the entire series, first monthly then annually, by an appropriate scalar. The flow into a weir will be handled in a similar manner since its drainage area is similar to all the others.

This work need only be done once for each watershed as the input streamflow data is prepared. However, if a dam is “moved” as it might be during the dam location optimisation process (PHASE VII), the related drainage areas will be altered, and the streamflow database will also be affected and require recalculation of the five-minute values in the affected areas. All of these modifications to the data will need to be documented as part of the research so that it is traceable.

The raw streamflow data figures from Environment Canada must be examined for anomalies including missing days, partial days, ice conditions, and other factors that might provide erroneous results without some data correction being performed in advance. Various simple strategies can be used to correct the data in such a way that the overall total volume remains unaltered. For example, if data for a single day is missing or compromised, its value might be deleted and replaced by the average of the two adjoining days. If the data for several consecutive days are missing or compromised, the values given might be deleted and replaced by a series of values based on the average values for the same day of the year from the streamflow data from other years, while

24 anchored by the two known on either side. In adjusting the daily streamflow figures to five-minute intervals, it might be necessary to correct the annual total to that reported by the gauge station through multiplying all figures by an appropriate constant. This will avoid overstating or understating the total streamflow and thus the power and energy that might be derived thereof, as discussed earlier.

2.04 PHASE IV: Parametric Turbine Analysis 2.04.0 Background In developing the simulation program described in PHASE V, it will be necessary to know what the power output will be at various heads as they occur from time to time. It might be possible to devise a look-up table with increments of one millimeter of head so that all possibilities are covered with reasonable accuracy, but this will leave us with a static design that cannot be altered without going to the trouble of generating an entirely new look-up table addressing the new issue to be investigated. There are up to 15 parameters involved in monitoring the high-head turbine and 19 for the low-head one; the desire is to design the simulation program so that the input design parameters can be altered quickly between simulation runs, with values set for only that run, and the impact is measured based on the specific information of that run.

A dynamic model easily can be accomplished through preparing a parametric model of the turbine designs. In this manner, the output parameters are not fixed in a rigid formula with fixed constants but rather in a flexible manner that adjusts with variable coefficients as the input parametes are adjusted. This should be particularly advantageous when scaling up the size of the turbines, provided the appropriate thought has gone into what effect a change in scale will have on the individual output parameters. The area of scaling is fraught and considerable care is needed to ensure mathematical integrity, but once it is done correctly, great confidence can be had in this part of the program.

2.04.1 High-Head Turbine Analysis Each high-head dam will have a powerhouse integrated into its design on the downstream side – see attached Sketch 3. This will allow a relatively short inlet with a wide opening to the headpond tapering down to a smaller diameter necessary to accommodate the scroll cage of a Francis Wheel turbine. The inlet is expected to be short – at most possibly ten metres from the outer upstream

25 face of the dam to the scroll cage connection. Within this short funnel just before the scroll cage will be a butterfly valve to control the inflow of water. Tapering the inlet will tend to accelerate the water flow into the turbine while also providing a means for curtailing incoming momentum when the butterfly valve is being shut. This last point is critical: Should the butterfly valve snap shut at an unexpectedly fast rate, the huge momentum in the incoming water must be removed safely. The tapered inlet will aid in the dissipation of this energy and help prevent damage to the infrastructure of the valve and the walls of the tapered inlet.

The draft tube design below the turbine and its analysis for cavitation will not be a part of this research. It is assumed that specifying a head of six metres or greater for the high-head sites will diminish cavitation concerns. (Ontario Power Generation does not go below seven metres at any of its sites4.) It is assumed that, in any built system based on this research, an appropriate draft tube design will be advanced. The efficiency rating of this turbine for various heads and discharge rates is to be obtained from industry sources for incorporation into the simulation program.

A parametric model is required for the turbine and inlet design that the computer simulation model can use to calculate the power and energy produced for each generating unit design in operation. The input parameters are divided into fixed and variable components as noted below:

Fixed parameters (per attached sketch): • Maximum headpond elevation (spillway sill) (m) • Minimum headpond elevation (m) • Outer inlet diameter (at upstream face of dam) (m) • Inner inlet diameter (at scroll cage connection) (m) • Distance between inner and outer diameters (m) • Generator capacity (MW); turbine capacity is assumed to be slightly higher • Combined turbine/generator efficiency • Maximum headpond live storage volume (m3)

Variable parameters: • Headpond elevation (m) • Tailrace elevation (m) • Effective head (m)

Sketch 3: High-Head Powerhouse

Output parameters: • Discharge rate (m3/s) • Power output (MW) • Energy output (kWh) • Percentage of headpond fill

The difference between the elevations of the two headponds immediately above and below the dam defines the head. This difference is constantly changing as it is influenced by the direct inflows into the headpond (surface runoff, groundwater infeed, direct precipitation, and discharged water from the powerhouse above) and direct outflows from the headpond (discharge through the turbine(s), evaporation/sublimation, and spillage). This makes the head a dynamic and complex value to track. Generating units are always operated near 100% of their rated capacity when active to achieve close to maximum efficiency.

The percentage of headpond fill is an indication of how much of the live storage is taken; alternatively, it can also be used to determine how much more water can be stored in the headpond. This parameter is useful in ranking the priority of headponds when selecting them for generation. Headponds that are full or nearly so are selected first; those that are depleted are ranked as lower priority and allowed to fill some more.

The model will simplify the calculations by taking the values found at the start of each time step and holding them constant for the next five minutes. The deviation in accuracy introduced by this simplification over such a short time interval will be modest compared with other sources of errors; effectively, given the vast surface area of the headponds, the net change in head over five minutes will be negligible. If multiple generating units are modelled in parallel operation, the simulation need only calculate the values for one, then multiply these figures by the number of units which are active. (Generating units are the combination of a turbine and generator; they have different capacities from one powerhouse to the next but within one powerhouse they are all deemed to have an identical generating capacity.)

One refinement that might be considered is the length of time it might take each turbine to spin up to full operating speed and the amount of water lost unproductively in this effort. This is a detail that will not be resolved in this thesis, but some comments can be made. For high-head sites, the

28 smaller, less massive turbines will spin up faster and consume less water in the process; the fastest might accomplish power production in about a minute or so and full power in two minutes. The largest, most massive turbines deployed will spin up much slower, possibly taking two or three minutes to achieve power production and up to five minutes to reach their rated output capability. (The low-head sites will be very fast to come on-line, with the smallest achieving full power output in about a minute and the largest in about two minutes. They will also rapidly slow down when the inflow of water is halted.)

Similarly, when a generating unit is shut down, the water entering the turbine is slowly reduced until it is zero, but the turbine will continue spinning and producing power as it decelerates. (The water cannot be shut off instantly at the high-head turbines without the risk of water hammer and severe damage to the valve and inlet.) Only when it is on the verge of a reverse power situation (current reversal into the generator rather than out of it) and the isolation breaker snaps open will power output cease. If a situation emerges where the power output must cease immediately, the circuit breaker can be tripped to isolate the generator from the bus, but the turbine will continue spinning as the water is slowly turned off in an orderly shutdown. This is not advised to be the normal operating protocol since the production of some energy will be lost and the breaker contacts risk being burned.

A conservative application of the simulation might assume that no power is produced until the next five minute period whilst the turbine is spinning-up and zero output is produced immediately after the turbine is shut down. Once the simulation program is performing satisfactorily, these will be issues to revisit and correct. If generating units are being dispatched on and off frequently, much of the aggregate output might go underreported here and need refining.

2.04.2 Low-Head Turbine Analysis Each low-head dam will have a powerhouse integrated into its design on the downstream side – see attached Sketch 2. This will allow a relatively short trough to reach from the top of the dam to the inlet of what will be called a Zudel Wheel turbine in a “breast shot” or “undershot” configuration (the diameter of the wheel will be twice the head). The trough will be supported by independent hydraulic cylinders so that the elevation of either end can be independently positioned in a dynamic manner. Lowering the trough on the inlet side of the turbine allows water to flow into the turbine; raising its discharge tip above the headpond elevation stops the flow. When in

29 operation, the dam end of the trough can be raised or lowered to fine tune the volume of flow allowed into the turbine.

The tailrace elevation for this turbine is fixed, greatly simplifying power calculations; however, this also reduces its efficiency somewhat. As part of the research, an estimate of the efficiency of the Zudel Wheel is to be made at integral head values over the range of two to six metres inclusive. A smooth function will be devised by curve-fitting relating the efficiency to the head and this will be incorporated into the simulation program.

A parametric model is required for the low-head turbine and inlet design which the computer simulation model then can use to calculate the power and energy produced at each generating unit in operation, including its efficiency as the head varies. The input parameters are divided into fixed and variable as noted below:

Fixed parameters (per attached sketch): • Maximum headpond elevation (spillway sill) (m) • Minimum headpond elevation (m) • Tailrace elevation (m) • Width of trough (m) • Generator capacity (MW); turbine capacity is assumed to be slightly higher • Combined turbine/generator efficiency • Turbine speed of rotation (rad/s) • Number of turbine blades • Turbine outer diameter (m) • Turbine drum diameter (m) • Turbine width (m) • Maximum turbine pocket fill volume (m3) • Maximum live headpond storage volume (m3)

Variable parameters: • Headpond elevation (m) • Angle of trough to horizontal (rad) • Depth of trough inlet base below headpond elevation (m)

Sketch 4: Low-Head Turbine

Output parameters: • Discharge rate (m3/s) • Power output (MW) • Percentage of headpond fill

The difference between the elevation of the headpond above the dam and the tailrace below defines the head. This difference is constantly changing as it is influenced by the inflows (direct precipitation, surface runoff, groundwater infeed, and discharged water arriving from the powerhouse above) and outflows (evaporation/sublimation, discharge through the turbine, and spillage). Unlike the high-head turbine, the situation here is simplified since the tailrace provides a fixed reference point on the downstream side. The balance of the general operation of the low- head turbine is similar to the high-head turbine, including the suggested refinement regarding the spin-up times for the various turbine capacities.

The inlet for high-head turbines is well below the headpond surface and thus immune to ice conditions; however, low-head turbines take their water from the surface and ice formation is an issue, particularly in an area where air temperatures can approach -50o C and much lower with wind chill. There are simple strategies for managing this as discussed below.

First, the design of the dam can aid in reducing ice formation. It is known that water has its maximum density at 3.98o C, so when ice forms on a body of water, the bottom layer of water is at or near 3.98o C. This knowledge can be used to advantage. Immediately upstream of the dam is placed a barrier across the river, solid at the top but open at the bottom; any water that is to enter the turbine must first go under this barrier at the bottom of the river, forcing 3.98o C water to well up in front of the dam and preventing the formation of ice. This barrier might be 2 metres out from the dam; the space between the barrier and the dam is called the forebay. The forebay can be compartmentalised in front of each low-head unit with a sensor measuring the temperature just below the surface. This works well when generation is taking place, but the larger issue is what happens during all those hours when no generation is needed, especially at night when it is coldest?

Second, the forebay can be covered with either a permanent cover or a seasonal tarp to reduce exposure to cold air during the winter; it then takes longer for ice to form on the surface of the forebay since the rate of heat transfer out of the forebay is reduced. Snow accumulation on the cover will eventually add to the insulating effect.

urtesy Ms Hanna Savionak MsHanna urtesy

Lodge, Ontario Lodge,

Constructed 1988 Constructed

phase Synchronous Generator Synchronous phase

Pine Falls PineFalls

25 kW 3 kW 25

Photograph 1: Tailrace

Third, it is possible that many hours elapse between generating sessions. In this case, it is possible to install pipes with nozzles at the bottom to eject compressed air, causing turbulence in the water column and mixing the warmer water at the bottom with the colder water at the surface. This is cycled on and off periodically as required.

Fourth, over long periods of inactivity, such as on weekends, the headpond will gradually fill to near the maximum. Cycling the generating units in sequence to draw down the surface will cause warmer water to fill the forebay and forestall ice formation.

Finally, should some ice form, all is not lost. Should ice get into the inlet, the low-head turbines can handle ice up to 1 cm thick although this is to be avoided if possible as it will interfere with water entering the inlet trough.

A full-size demonstration model of the Zudel Wheel has been operating continually at a private lodge near Sudbury since September 1988, where a sluice gate is used to regulate the water inlet. No ice issues are encountered with this set-up as the water is taken from the bottom of an inlet channel. (See Photo 2)

2.05 PHASE V: Open Channel Flow Analysis and Water Inventory Simulation Program 2.05.1 Open Channel Flow Analysis A generous amount of time has been allowed in the accompanying Gantt Chart for open channel flow analysis which reflects the anticipated complexity in devising suitable methods for integrating it into the simulation program which is discussed later in this section. This allowance is tempered by the fact that the Hydraulic Engineer will also be acting as a consultant to the computer programmers when they are coding PHASE IV (high- and low-head turbines) as well as this phase. See Gantt Chart.

A basic tenet of DHE is to leave no head undeveloped, which results in all dams linked directly by headponds which essentially are long, narrow lakes following the original channel of the river. The tailrace of each upper dam is at the same elevation as the maximum headpond surface of the following lower dam, leaving no head unutilised. Released water from upstream generation flows the length of these lakes, which can be modelled as water flowing through wide open channels.

Devising the Centreline Route of the river network in PHASE I will yield a series of short linear segments which can be used individually to measure the flow, taking into account the depth and width of the river, its cross-sectional area, the gradient, and the volume of water in motion. These short sections will be orthogonal prisms with the ends parallel to each other and at right-angles to the top (headpond) surface; the top surface is bisected in the direction of flow by the Centreline Route developed in PHASE I. While both ends of the prism are parallel, they are not normally the same size, and thus the sides and bottom of the prism are not necessarily at right angles to the ends or the top surface, but tapered. See attached Sketch 2.

A simple prism will be used exclusively in the first two scenarios where flooding is minimal; a more complex shape will be modelled in the scenarios where flooding is considered. The complex shape has shoulders added which represent an additional area at the natural ground level which is flooded. See attached Sketch 1.

Summing up the transit time along each individual segment of the Centreline Route between two dams will yield the time it will take for the water to travel from one dam to the next. A parametric model is needed to solve the transit time issue so that it can be incorporated into the simulation model (Section 2.05.02). While mathematical models exist for such calculations, they involve higher order equations that yield multiple roots of which only one solution is valid in the context of the problem being solved. Clearly, negative and zero roots can be discarded, but there might remain several positive solutions from which to choose. Calculating these values might be accomplished by embedding an established calculating engine, such as that devised by Wolfram Alpha and others, if one can be obtained under licence and successfully integrated into the simulation code. The use of outside code causes the issue of data security and use of the Internet to arise here – see Data and Software Security (Section 5.2.2).

Another factor which complicates tracking the celerity of released water is this: Since water travels faster if the volume is greater, a powerhouse that releases a modest amount of water to begin and then increases its discharge output will result in the water released later travelling faster, overtaking the water released earlier, and causing a greater volume to well up. This greater volume will have an inherent tendency itself to accelerate and travel increasingly faster as more and more of the earlier water is overtaken. No solution for the water acceleration celerity issue is offered here; its existence is noted, however. This issue will be sorted out in the simulation program, likely through

35 dividing the problem into five-minute intervals, determining the speed at the start of each interval, and holding it constant for five minutes.

Another issue that will affect the determination of the speed of streamflow is the presence of interstitial islands in the watercourse. The formulae for determining open channel flows do not contemplate islands, and probably with good reason given the anticipated complexity. This research does not have the luxury of ignoring them. There are three possibilities here: A collection of tiny islands, larger islands that have their own defined river channels between them, and a combination of the two. While it might be tempting to ignore an archipelago of tiny islands, they are similar to icebergs since what you see is only a fraction of what lies beneath the surface.

Using a digital elevation model (DEM), the Geographic Analysts can examine how much of the river channel is obstructed by the base on which the visible portion of the small islands rest. Some research is needed to assess the resistance to the flow presented by the river bottom topology. With larger islands and clearly defined independent river channels between them, a different approach is needed. Can this be examined as independent open channels in parallel similar to a pipe network? Some research time is needed to assess the resistance to the streamflow under such circumstances. Combining both solutions above in a logical manner might be relatively easy once the two individual island issues have been solved.

It is recognised that the true centreline of the river at any given time changes with headpond surface elevation as the headpond fills and empties. However, the original Centreline Route calculated in PHASE I initially will suffice for the entire analysis. This might change in the latter part of the analysis, especially with flooding scenarios 3 and 4 mentioned in the introduction, if there is a compelling reason to do so. The possibility of the flooding creating lakes which formerly did not exist is likely and this might materially affect the centreline route and the length of time it will take water to flow between two adjacent dams in a meaningful way. What is sought is a workable method that reflects reality without becoming overly complex. There are no hard and fast rules here. This is all original research and common sense has to prevail with reasonable and practical, if imperfect, solutions.

A more complex rendition of the Centerline Route might be to determine it at the maximum headpond elevation once the dam positions have been set and the amount of flooding is known per the four flooding scenarios. In many headponds – perhaps all – there is a deviation from the

36 original Centreline Route as originally calculated per the digital topographical map when the water is at the maximum. Since the Centreline Route is used to measure the length of the river and locate the position of features of interest on it, the recalculated Route tends to lengthen the river and reposition all these features. Nevertheless, the recalculation is closer to the actual distance that the water now travels as it takes longer to negotiate from one powerhouse to the next.

It is difficult to determine what might be gained from such a refined analysis. The question is raised, but the answer is left for further thought at a later time.

2.05.2 Develop Water Inventory Simulation Program

The simulation program is the heart of the analysis. The protocols of the Research Objectives (Section 1.3) are coded into the program (as applicable) so that the output has a known consistency from one simulation run to the next. A Software Architect is engaged part time to design the software structure so that parallel processing can be utilised to full advantage for faster CPU processing and that uniform coding and documentation standards are set for the programming crew. Multicore processing can accomplish parallel processing; when combined with an operating system that is fault-tolerant (“crash-proof”), the program has a high probability of running to completion. The QNX Neutrino5 operating system is one such operating system, although there are others. Appropriate software is chosen for coding the program, possibly C or C++. A suitable computer for running this operating system and other software is then selected. The objective is to have each simulation run execute within 30 minutes. Three Programmers are engaged in all of the simulation coding work; this number will ensure timely completion of the work and its continuity should one person leave the team.

The development of the simulation program starts in parallel with Phases II and III (developing geographic parameters) after Phases IV and V (developing turbine parameters) are done. The Managing Director prepares a program flowchart and works with the Software Architect who will supervise the coding process. The Software Architect and the coding team work closely with the engineering staff to ensure that the technical aspects of the program are modelled faithfully. The main objective of the simulation is to produce the maximum amount of dispatchable power daily throughout the peak demand hours from 0600h through 2000h inclusive while minimising the amount of surplus energy created during off-hours and without spilling any water unharnessed if

37 at all possible. The initial design of the program imposes no constraints on generating capacity to ensure that all of the water can be utilised. However, this will lead to the inefficient application of capital and constraints on generating capacity will be imposed later in the analysis.

Historical grid demand is used as a guide for the simulation model to follow; this data is obtained from the IESO and integrated into the simulation input database. The simulation tracks water as it flows through the controlled portion of the watershed, in effect maintaining a water inventory tracking system at every point in the developed portion of the river network. This requires the simulation program to make decisions on the intensity of generation required to follow grid demand (or to shed generation when demand is satisfied) per IESO dispatch orders, but also when and where to generate to avoid spilling water (one of the Research Objectives) at each powerhouse in the system during every simulation time step.

Discharged water can take many time steps to travel the full length of a headpond from one powerhouse to the next. It appears to be easy to track a constant discharge rate since the flow will move at a constant speed, or at least this might appear to be the case. Unfortunately, what might appear to be a placid, constantly flowing river is actually a meandering body of water. It is accelerating in some places where the width narrows and decelerating in others where it widens, and rarely (if ever) does it move at a constant speed for any great distance since surface runoff and groundwater infeed will always be causing a greater volume to gather and accelerate. Direct precipitation just adds more to the flow, accelerating it everywhere. This can all be modelled mathematically with reasonable accuracy over short sections such as the segments of the Centreline Route, but the sheer number of calculations that must be made repeatedly for each time step iteration is enormous.

Each segment of the Centreline Route might average 100 metres, or about 10,000 segments over the length of the Severn River – perhaps 20,000 segments when its major tributaries are considered. Each different generating strategy will require 20,000 recalculations; many generating strategies might be considered within a single iteration of the simulation as the program seeks the optimum generating mix for each simulated time step. Given the state of today’s computing technology, the use of a computer with multiple cores and a simulation program set for parallel processing should be able to overcome this hurdle. The time step of the simulation is five simulated minutes; the time domain is up to 123 months (120 months of simulation plus three months for program

38 initiation where the output is considered unreliable and will be discarded). The five-minute interval is intended to match the time period between rounds of dispatch orders issued by the IESO.

During each time step, the simulation starts at the highest reaches of the watershed and work down one branch of the river until it arrives at a confluence with another branch, at which point it switches to evaluating that branch down to and past the confluence and so on to the next confluence until the entire river network is processed. In fact, the program might be geared to start evaluating all branches simultaneously in parallel and only pause on a branch when a confluence is reached as it waits for processing of the other branch of the confluence to catch up, then combine the results of both and proceed, etc.

There is a predictive component to the simulation which involves determining the best combination of powerhouses and generating units to activate or shut down at each five-minute interval. This choice is crucial if the creation of surplus power and energy is to be avoided or at least is to be minimal – surplus energy has no demand in the electricity market and thus no value although there is a means for absorbing it (see Phase XI: Surplus Energy).

Between each time step, the simulation computer will be mainly engaged in finding the optimum generating mix to satisfy the immediate market demand while trying to avoid releasing water where several time steps later excess water might accumulate in one headpond causing surplus generation (or in the worst case, spillage) to be required to disperse it. It is unknown how many iterations might be needed to converge on a solution or even if convergence is possible during any given time step.

In a 123-month simulated run, there are just over one million five-minute intervals. If each computer simulation run is to be completed in 30 minutes or less, it needs efficient code and a computer with a network of fast processors with parallel processing to manage evaluating about 600 time steps per second. At each step, it must find an optimum allocation of generating orders, apply them, and move on to the next time step scenario (which will be based on the immediate application of the step just completed).

At the start of each time step, the computer will rank the headponds by their percentage of fill. This list will be examined to determine which headponds are at risk of overflowing were no generation to take place within the next time step. The minimum amount of generation required

39 at each site to avoid spillage is determined. This sets a floor for the generation intensity at these sites for the next time step, but the level can be set higher if needed. In this way, a headpond that is on the verge of spilling water likely has most of its generating units immediately put into operation – high generation intensity – whereas those that are at the bottom of the ranking might not be considered until their headponds fill to a higher percentage, depending on grid demand. This selection method has the advantage of consistently generating mostly from full or nearly full headponds where the head is the highest and the amount of power which can be created is correspondingly also the greatest.

The program must judge how many generating units to put into operation at each powerhouse: It needs to select just enough capacity to ensure that the headpond will not overflow within the next five simulated minutes so that there will be no spilled water yet keep the head near its maximum for best generating output; however, if too much capacity is deployed the headpond will be drawn down lower than necessary resulting in less efficient generation while possible causing downstream problems with the extra water released. Clearly, this is a delicate dance being played out at every powerhouse throughout the entire watershed every 1.7 ms as the program cycles through the various headpond and searches for the optimum mix of generating assets to deploy.

At the end of each simulation, the following output will be made available for each powerhouse per each five-minute interval: • The amount of power and energy produced (MW, kWh); • The amount of water spilled, if any (m3); • Headpond utilisation (percent fill at the start of each time step); • The maximum number of generation units simultaneously in operation; • Total discharge (m3); and, • The number of time steps truncated by time-out. To ensure completion of each simulation run in a timely manner, the simulation program will include a timer to limit the processing time for each time step. The number of time steps truncated by time-out is the parameter that will document how many time steps exceeded the limit. Setting an appropriate limit for the timer will be one of trial and error to keep total execution time under 30 minutes. When the time step times out, the best solution found to that point is chosen and the program increments to the next time step.

The amount of raw output data will be considerable. A Database Specialist will be engaged to assist the programmers in integrating the database into the simulation program (see PHASE VI).

Initially, early simulation runs will be conducted in an unrestrained capacity mode which allows each powerhouse to act as if it has an unlimited number of generating units to deploy. The effect of constraining generation capacity will be examined in PHASE XII, Section 2.12.2.

2.06 PHASE VI: Database Design

There are two distinct databases needed by the simulation program: one in which the parameters that describe the watershed under investigation are stored and one in which the output data is stored. Both databases will be archived on the server after every run, identified by a run number and date in the file name. Identifying the configuration of the input database will allow runs to be replicated quickly if needed; this will make it easier to recall a particular situation and perform supplemental simulation runs with a known input data situation (which can then be modified as required to suit any new investigation). The output database provides a permanent record of the research. Provision in the budget is made for including a Database Specialist to design the database so that it is fully integrated with the simulation program and can be queried by simple logical commands to generate summary reports based on the data contained therein, including performing calculations with the data as required. The output database will dwarf the input database over time by orders of magnitude.

Over time there might be a multiple number of small input databases, each documented with a version number and the date they were updated. This will facilitate replicating previous runs despite the fact that the database might undergo revisions to new versions now and then.

The Database Specialist will be engaged as required throughout the development of the simulation program, acting mainly as a consultant. However, it is not intended for this person to gather the data to be stored in the database. Rather, this person will instruct other members of the development team in the use of the database including data entry, editing, and report generation while ensuring that the database is fully integrated with the simulation program.

2.07 PHASE VII: Optimising Dam Locations

Once the simulation program is debugged and working to an acceptable standard, the dam locations will need to be optimised from their manually set locations. This involves shifting each dam one at a time a short distance, say 50 metres, upstream and downstream, starting with the second dam from the river’s outlet (it is assumed that the location of the dam immediately above the river outlet is fixed and can’t be improved). If the total energy output rises when moved in one direction, it might be moved again in the same direction to see if there is any further improvement, and so on. The parameters for two headponds must be recalculated when a dam is moved since some or all of the parameters for both adjacent headponds might be affected. Particular care must be taken when a dam is moved downstream, as generally this will increase the performance at that site, but at the expense of the dam immediately below. The output from both dams should be considered together for any total improvement.

The ability to confine water in a convenient manner will play a large role in deciding the locations of the dams. While dikes and levees can assist in confinement, they are expensive to construct and maintain, and only should be taken as a last resort and when there is a large advantage in doing so. When dikes and levees are considered, they must be sufficiently wide to accommodate a single lane on top for the convenience of conducting a visual inspection using a vehicle.

Once the locations of all the dams have been optimised and any further bugs or other programming issues that are discovered are resolved, the simulation program can be said to be ready for use in analysing the watershed. However, there are three remaining features from the Research Objectives to be incorporated into the simulation program: • Diverting the freshet; • Incorporating pumped storage; and, • Integrating wind power.

2.08 PHASE VIII: Diverting the Freshet

The freshet is the seasonal spring flood; the Research Objective here is to divert a significant amount of the water from the freshet into Impoundment Reservoirs so that the total flow in the main river is diminished thereby reducing the risk of water being spilled unharnessed at any of the downstream powerhouses. The Geographic Analysts are asked to search for convenient

Impoundment Reservoir locations on undeveloped tributaries of the main river, measure the relevant parameters, and then these parameters are incorporated into the simulation model. The water is held behind a weir not exceeding three metres in height. The water is released through an automatic sluice gate that provides control over the rate of release.

Pumped storage techniques might be necessary to fill some reservoirs, depending on the topology of the watershed. A steady pumping rate of 3.5 m3/s over ten consecutive days at the height of the freshet will divert about 3-million cubic metres of water (0.003 cubic kilometer); a reservoir with a three metre weir and about a four square kilometre surface could contain this water. These pumps could be activated at other times of the year if there is too much water in the system and removing some of the water is an advantage to avoid spillage or creating surplus energy. Several such reservoirs might be needed depending on the amount of water that must be diverted, but most will be gravity fed.

It is recognised that to meet the requirement of spilling no water during the freshet, a significant amount of surplus energy can result depending on the amount of impoundment capacity that is available and the intensity of the freshet, which can vary from one year to the next. During the freshet, the majority of powerhouses have most of their generating units operating 24/7 for several consecutive weeks to pass all of the water coming at them during the peak flow period. Exceeding normal experience, it is this surplus energy that can be used to pump the water into the Impoundment Reservoirs. (Not all Impoundment Reservoirs will need to be pumped.) The considerable surplus energy which remains will be handled separately – see PHASE XI. (While not a part of the simulation analysis, a built system will have a network of rain/snow gauges – actually, mini weather stations – located on a grid throughout the watershed which will, inter alia, measure the snow cover and provide an advance indication of the impending intensity of the freshet. See Section 6.1.2.)

The Impoundment Reservoirs are depleted a few months later during the late seasonal summer drought thereby aiding in sustaining the streamflow during the drought; they are completely empty by the autumnal equinox. In the meantime, since the water is held back by weirs, the surface is kept “topped up” by the natural flow down the tributary on which they are located and thus are not depleted by evaporation; excess water just overflows the weir. During the late summer drought,

43 water from the Impoundment Reservoirs is gradually released to supplement the available streamflow in an attempt to maintain the average flow in the river system.

However, once they are depleted by the time of the Autumnal Equinox, they will be available for storing surplus water on an opportunistic basis during the autumn and winter months to provide emergency water reserves should such be needed over the winter. These reservoirs are again emptied in the weeks before the freshet begins in the following spring and the entire cycle repeats. Emptying them a second time might also result in significant surplus energy production, but this can be useful as noted in the next paragraph. All of this is incorporated into the simulation model.

It is recognised that the design of the DHE system, including the Impoundment Reservoirs and pumped storage, lends itself to an easy conversion for the transport of water across watersheds to chronically drought-stricken regions. The pre-freshet surplus that can occur when the Impoundment Reservoirs are emptied just before the onset of the freshet can provide additional energy to support long-distance transport of water. This interesting possibility is not directly addressed in this research. See Section 8.1.

2.09 PHASE IX: Pumped Storage

Pumped storage is the pumping of water upstream past a dam when electricity rates are low so that the water can be used later a second time to create electricity for sale when rates are much higher. The loss in efficiency is about 35% (30% from pumping; 5% from generating the electricity a second time). This is a good way of absorbing surplus electricity which has no economic value.

In this context, pumped storage requires a large source, not easily exhausted, from which to draw water for it to work properly. Since the Severn River flows into the sea, Hudson Bay is the large source required. The computer simulation model incorporates pumped storage in the lower dams of the river network. Two factors to be discovered are how many dams should be involved and what the pumping capacity at each might be. Finding the optimum amount of pumped storage capacity is part of the process for incorporating pumped storage into the simulation program.

Pumped storage cannot be done at any dam selected at random as it will affect the amount of water in the headpond below. Pumping from one headpond up into the next headpond above, while it augments the supply of water in the upper headpond, it also depletes the water in the lower

44 headpond. The powerhouse in the lower headpond will be effectively rendered inoperative as a result, making this a zero sum game. To remedy this, the next headpond below must pump into what is now the middle headpond, but the problem is repeated at that headpond, and all the way down the chain. The issue of finding a lower headpond goes on until a headpond with an inexhaustible source of water is found. No such source exists until the series ends at the sea – there is found an “infinite” amount of sea water. But this apparently presents another problem: It is not desirable to let salt water enter a fresh water river.

At most, pumped storage activity will take place at some time during the eight non-peak hours at night, from 2200h through 0600h. The amount of water that might be pumped is considerably less than the amount that might be discharged through the turbines (were this not so, the pumping action would quickly fill each headpond to overflowing). The objective is to restore the live storage component of each headpond where there is a deficiency. Note that the first dam will be in the river estuary where salt and fresh water have mingled from time immemorial, so temporarily trapping salt water behind the first dam does not seem to be a major environmental issue.

It is claimed that the amount of salt water that can enter the headpond system is confined solely to the first headpond only and for several reasons. The volume of salt water is limited, as stated above; furthermore, salt water is denser and less likely to mix with fresh water as it stratifies at the bottom. Also, the salt water is being pushed into the first headpond. This latter point is important since pushing water is akin to pushing a string – it will rapidly lose its forward momentum and will be reluctant to move in the direction in which it is originally directed.

At the other end of the same headpond, which can be many kilometres away, the pumps will only be drawing fresh water. When the situation is reversed and generation begins at the lowest dam, the denser salt water will be at the bottom and will be the first water to be drawn into the turbines. It is expected that the headpond will be flushed quickly of most if not all of the salt. However, should some salt evade the flushing action, it would be much diluted and would have a minimal impact on the fauna and flora of the river estuary; throughout the day, it will percolate to the bottom and eventually be expelled.

Similar to generating capacity, which increases when proceeding downstream as the streamflow increases, pumped storage capacity must be increased when moving upstream past a consecutive number of dams since the volume of water available for pumping will tend to increase. This

45 volume increases because not only must the pumps at the next dam upstream handle the water placed into the headpond by the pumps immediately below, but the upstream pumps must also accommodate the inflow of water into the headpond from surface runoff, groundwater infeed, and occasional direct precipitation. The river effectively is flowing in reverse and its volume grows in the upstream direction as a result. The volume of water pumped and the amount of surplus energy thereby consumed is tracked and reported for each dam that is equipped with pumps. It is entirely possible that if the series of dams is sufficiently long, little water might be needed from the lowest headpond negating the need for a large initial inexhaustible source.

While pumped storage might be used opportunistically at any time during the year, its main use is during the late summer drought when streamflow drops to about half of its annual average. While surplus energy during the seasonal late summer drought is limited as streamflow declines, more can be made available by curtailing its use in other productive uses per PHASE XI. Effectively, the other productive uses can be shut down for summer vacation during the peak of the drought in August, thereby freeing up a significant amount of energy for sale into the grid and for pumped storage at night. Since a large amount of the surplus energy comes from the wind, surplus energy can never be zero at night if the base load is covered by nuclear and run-of-the-river sources.

2.10 PHASE X: Incorporate Wind Power Input

One conjecture of the Research Objectives is that water and wind work well together in a complementary manner, with water backing up wind 100% and wind greatly extending finite water resources. However, we do not know what the limits of this mutual and symbiotic relationship might be in any given watershed.

The simulation model includes wind power from Hudson Bay, where the wind power density is three times that which can be attained in Southern Ontario6. Access to transmission is not an issue since the watershed is developed right down to tidewater and transmission along with it. However, transmission congestion is a factor which will have to be examined as pointed out in the Research Objectives (see Section 2.13.2). Winds over the Bay are much more sustained than in Southern Ontario. In the south, the utilisation factor is about 20% of the time while over the Bay it is twice that amount. Accordingly, the amount of wind energy that can be gathered in the North can exceed that in the South up to a factor of six. While the cost of maritime construction will be higher, including pilings and underwater transmission to shore, it will not be six times as much.

Figure 3: Wind Atlas of Canada Note the lack of wind potential over land in Southern Ontario.

The current moratorium placed on wind power generation over water by the Province of Ontario has no effect on wind power coming from Hudson Bay. In Hudson Bay, the wind towers are in the jurisdiction of the Territory of Nunavut where a different set of laws governs and Ontario’s moratorium is ultra vires.

In the modelling, it is planned that rudimentary smoothing of wind output is performed by a flywheel mounted in the base of each wind tower; this will help to remove some of the “irregularity” of the wind output. Transmission by high-voltage DC lines completely removes all voltage spikes, harmonics, and other undesirable voltage issues which might arise from wind power generation – see Section 2.13.2. Data on wind power in the Ontario grid is sought from appropriate government agencies and incorporated into the input database in a manner similar to the streamflow data, but without the need for applying cubic splines.

The simulation model knows that it has a fixed amount of wind turbine capacity available. This capacity is derated every five minutes to represent the variability of the wind and thus the power predicted as available during that interval. (Winds over Hudson Bay are consistent and sustained and wind turbine output there is expected to average 40% of capacity; this average is less than 25% of capacity over water in Southern Ontario, and probably less than 20% over land.)

The model does not know in advance what the wind will yield and might have to adjust its hydraulic output “on the fly” to maintain its overall firm power delivery commitment within the built network in the Severn River. Guidance from the IESO is needed on this point with regard to the Ontario grid. The simple answer might be that such sudden changes are incorporated into the dispatch orders with the resilience of the grid bridging the gap until the dispatch orders take effect. This is to be resolved as part of the research.

Since wind capacity can be practically limitless on the expanse of Hudson Bay in comparison to finite water resources, it is possible to adjust the amount of wind capacity available to the simulation model, both up and down. The impact on the yield of DHE during peak demand hours and the corresponding amount of surplus energy that is produced during off-peak periods is observed.

Optimising wind capacity is anticipated to be a trade-off among DHE output, surplus energy, and the capital cost of constructing incremental wind infrastructure. While the cost of building extra

48 wind capacity adds to the capital demands of constructing a developed watershed and the surplus energy produced, the productive use of this surplus energy can yield a higher margin and add to the financial justification for the project as a whole (see Phase XI). At some point, the overall wind capacity starts to exceed what is appropriate for the amount of precipitation in the watershed. If the wind capacity is built to accommodate high water years, then in low water years much of the capacity will be underutilized and only produce surplus energy. An application of economics is necessary to resolve this emerging issue.

The technology for wind turbines is rapidly changing, allowing for 13 to 15 MW turbines to be contemplated in the 2020s7. My speculation is that 20 MW units might be operational by the 2030s if the stiffness of wind turbine blades can be maintained with blade length exceeding 100 metres. The nacelle on such machines would be mounted at an elevation of 200 metres or more above the water. This greatly reduces the risk of the spray from whitecaps on waves being caught by the wind and lifted to a point where it could be deposited onto the blades, then freeze there during sub- zero temperatures. Deposited ice can affect blade performance. Since the water will be slightly salty, the effect will be muted; on the other hand, wind chill will magnify the freezing effect. It might be necessary to include some automatic method for internally heating the blades slightly to the point where any ice accumulation will become loose and simply be flung off.

Hudson Bay is remarkably shallow; at 30 to 40 kilometres offshore, the depth is about 50 metres. This makes it feasible to mount large wind farms where the wind from any direction will not be attenuated by the land. Another advantage is that no one on-shore can see or hear them.

The tides on the Bay peak at about 5.5 metres but are typically half that. There is also single-season ice in winter. The ice does not pose a problem if it is handled correctly. The danger is wind-driven ice pushing against the mast of a wind turbine. With modest tides which change the sea elevation slowly, a considerable and sustained force could be exerted at right-angles to the mast, which is anchored some 50 metres below on the floor of the Bay. This can be avoided by installing a skirt, perhaps at 45o to the water, all around the waterline of the mast with such a depth that it handles the entire range of tide elevations. When ice is driven at the mast, the skirt will deflect it upwards and, since it is single-year ice and not that strong in torsion, it will break up without exerting significant force on the mast itself. With Global Warming, ice is expected to be less and less a problem in the future and this solution might not be necessary in a few decades.

2.11 PHASE XI: Surplus Energy

This study assumes that there is a use for the surplus energy which inevitably will be generated despite best efforts to avoid making it. Some of the surplus is absorbed by pumped storage activity but this is only a small fraction of what might be created. The simulation program reports the amount of surplus energy generated at each powerhouse (in five-minute increments) throughout each simulation run. The program also tracks how much water is spilled.

The conjecture of the Research Objectives is that all of the surplus energy net of pumped storage is diverted into a productive use and that no water is spilled. While some analysis is performed to quantify the amount of surplus energy, it is not a direct part of the watershed analysis per se. The final report will identify uses for this energy and the employment and economic opportunity that might result from such productive use. It is expected that the productive use of surplus energy is significantly more profitable than the generation of DHE, but it takes the generation of DHE and all of its infrastructure and investment to achieve this beneficial position. While all activities associated with DHE is contained inside the developed watershed, the types of industry that might benefit from the use of surplus energy as contemplated at this writing are not resident within the developed watershed but rather farther south where there is railway access.

It is possible that some electricity might be needed to drive the productive uses of the surplus energy to keep them operational at all times, including on-peak times. This is in contrast with the much greater amount of diverted power that is expected to be absorbed at off-peak times. Clearly, this on-peak use gives the appearance of robbing the grid of power when it might be needed there. The simulation analysis is intended to investigate if this issue arises in any meaningful way. One strategy to cope with an anticipated shortage of electric generation during the seasonal late summer drought is to provide for an orderly shutdown of the surplus-absorbing industries for vacation during the month of August. This will immediately free up all surplus energy for use in pumped storage including pumping into some of the Impoundment Reservoirs where that capability exists. This allows the water to be time-shifted to a time period in another day when demand is higher.

It will not be possible to provide a definitive answer to the use of surplus electric energy until the pattern and quantity of the surplus is known and can be assessed. Section 5.1.7 explores some of the possibilities for absorbing surplus energy in a profitable manner, but the scope of these plans has to await the simulation results and knowing the magnitude of the surplus issue.

2.12 PHASE XII: Simulation Program Testing and Simulation Analysis 2.12.1 Simulation Program Testing While each feature of the simulation program is tested as the development process proceeded, final program testing is designed to ensure that the different program modules work in an integrated manner. One testing technique might be to make modest incremental changes to the input data for successive simulation runs and verify that the output is as expected. Input sensitivity analysis might also be conducted to ensure that the results have not become unstable at any point.

The Software Architect can be called upon for advice in software testing strategies.

2.12.2 Simulation Analysis At this point, it is assumed that the simulation program is tested as the dam locations were optimised, the Impoundment Reservoirs were added, the pumped storage feature was included and optimised, and wind power and energy was successfully integrated and evaluated, and furthermore that any issues with the desired operation of the program are identified and fixed as they arose. In addition to the foregoing, it has undergone specific tests without limitation as suggested in the previous section.

The question to be answered is, what is the maximum power and energy that can be produced from the watershed in question? (During the process of integrating wind energy, this question might already have been answered.) But that is the wrong question!

The correct question is, how much DHE can be sold in a low-water year? This provides the basis for determining a firm output guarantee in any year. The production of any amount of power above this level is uncertain since there is no guarantee that in any given year sufficient water can be there to produce more power.

The simulation time domain is ten consecutive years of historic data. There will be ten different annual figures as each year has a differing amount of precipitation. The lowest figure is the answer for firm supply that might be considered to be reliable within the accuracy of the model.

Knowing the minimum amount that can be produced sets an upper bound on what can be delivered as firm supply given the historical context. Can the simulation point to strategies that might raise this minimum output? The analysis can allow many “what if” scenarios to be addressed, too numerous to be listed here, in an effort to explore this and other questions that might arise.

In years when water is more abundant, most of the energy produced beyond the upper bound is still created in a dispatchable mode and can be sold in the spot market or can be placed under a single season long term contract if it is appropriately hedged. It is likely some combination of these two options – spot market and hedged contract sales – will be used but this type of analysis is beyond the scope of this thesis. Note that in a low precipitation year there also is less surplus energy and pumped storage accordingly might be of limited availability. Furthermore, it is unknown what the annual variability is in the wind. Many concepts along these lines need to be investigated through the simulation analysis. Having the Impoundment Reservoirs and pumped storage capability into some of these reservoirs can enhance the reliability of fulfilling long-term contracts should precipitation become unreliable.

This leads to the uncertainty of Global Warming, which adds another dimension to this analysis. Precipitation is predicted to increase in temperate zones such as the Boreal forest where the Severn River watershed is located. Should a long-term trend demonstrating a clear, gradual increase in streamflow become part of the historic record, the cap on the firm maximum unhedged supply might be raised over time. (See Section 6.1.6)

Up to this point, generation capacity has not been constrained. It now is necessary to place a limit on the maximum number of generating units within each powerhouse. This introduces a different dynamic since the risk of spilling water increases without proper foresight applied in the forecasting portion of the simulation program. A simple way to constrain generating capacity is to examine the maximum number of generating units used in the unrestrained case, and reduce the capacity by one from that level in all of the powerhouses, then by two, and so on until surplus energy or spilled water indicates a limit is being reached.

It is expected that some powerhouses are quite sensitive to changes in generation capacity while others are not. The exercise is to determine which is which, and why. Restraining generating capacity is more realistic but is likely exacerbate the surplus energy issue.

2.13 PHASE XIII: Least Cost Access Road and Least Cost Transmission Corridor 2.13.0 Background In the context of this chapter, “least cost” means “least environmental cost”.

There is no permanent, all-weather road linking the Severn River watershed communities to the rest of Ontario, and no plans in the foreseeable future for the construction of such a link. For a brief few weeks each winter, ice roads are constructed but even this window of opportunity is expected to gradually close shut over time under Global Warming. A lack of the simplest permanent gravel road has a profound impact on the quality of life for the First Nations residents, from the availability and cost of fresh food to access to emergency medical care in the south, where both aircraft and weather have to co-operate. It is now 2017, and Native peoples of the North remain as isolated as if living in past centuries. The following section outlines the road requirements for the development.

Since Ontario is already more than sufficiently supplied with electric generating capacity, the primary market for the power produced is in the US Mid-West states that lie directly south of Northern Ontario. This defines the general route of the main transmission line, which is effectively due south to the Minnesota border near Fort Frances. The second section in this chapter covers the transmission requirements for the project.

2.13.1 Least Cost Access Road The access road to the Severn River watershed is some 300 km in length from the nearest Provincial highway (likely Highway 125 near Red Lake), and then reach a further 400 km or more north to Fort Severn on tidewater. The route from the south might not be as direct as possible since it goes through or near as many local First Nation communities as practical while dodging lakes and wetlands on a meandering course, all without losing sight of the main objective.

The route is designed to avoid Native cultural sites, minimise river crossings, avoid particularly rough terrain, and is buffered from encroaching on lakes and wetlands. Crossing drumlins, eskers, and moraines is discouraged to avoid groundwater contamination although placing a road near these features can be important since they can be mined for road-building aggregates. Mining

53 eskers is particularly advantageous, although washed out dry river beds can also be considered. Rock crushing machinery will be needed to bring the aggregate to a useful consistent maximum size. A rock crusher is also useful in making aggregate for concrete when building the dams and other structures.

The maximum desired gradient is 5% to facilitate the transport of the massive power transformers. This might be relaxed in certain places, however, when considering the natural terrain if a significant reduction in road length can be attained (the road profile can be ameliorated, likely by blasting out a short section of bedrock and using the rubble as fill to ease a particularly steep section of road profile).

The initial routing of the constructed road is intended to be as permanent an alignment as possible recognising that a better alignment might be built in future decades. All the road has to do is allow trucks to navigate with safety and reasonable dispatch, but once built recognise that there is two-way traffic with private vehicles; the standard to which the road is built must recognise this. Thus, bridges are viewed as permanent structures and can be made from pre-stressed concrete sections off-site, rated at about 65 tonnes maximum live load per vehicle at an impact speed of 80 kph. (The power transformers might exceed 65 tonnes, but the vehicle carrying them are inching along to present no impact load onto the bridge structure.) The hydro-electric dams can be designed to include a single or dual lane bridge deck for crossing the main rivers; these structures will be made from concrete piers with steel mesh decks. The northernmost part of the road passes through the Hudson Bay Lowlands and is built over permafrost. All roads have a half-load axle restriction during the months of April, May, and June as the frost comes out of the roadbed; at these times, the roadbed is soft and can be damaged by rutting if axle loads are excessive.

A secondary road network with an estimated aggregate length of 700 km will be needed to directly link all the dams on all the river branches. They will be built to the same standard as the main access road. Side roads to the dams might be of a lesser standard (possibly narrower and lower posted speeds, for instance) but will retain a maximum 5% grade. However, bridge, drainage, and culvert standards will not be compromised in any primary and secondary road design. A tertiary road network along the transmission corridors is also needed; the length of this is at least as long as the transmission lines themselves, easily exceeding 2,600 km. The tertiary road is not intended for anything other than trucks with high road clearance.

The least cost routine in ArcGIS requires the preparation of a “surficial” map by the Geographic Analysts that the ArcGIS software can interpret as lakes, rivers, wetlands, and so on. Assistance can be sought from ESRI in the preparation of the surficial map. Data on Native cultural sites are sought directly from affected First Nations plus from the Ministry of Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation.

Planning for the least cost access road cannot begin until the damsite locations are fixed. Information on the road alignment is required for the preparation of the overall project cost estimates. Unit road cost estimates are sought from the Ministry of Northern Development and Mines based on the access road estimates for the Ring of Fire or other northern roads.

In considering the use of drumlins, eskers, moraines, or even dry river beds as a source of aggregates, not all aggregates are created equal. An investigation of suitable sites from which aggregate can be obtained for use in concrete for the dams might easily be conducted if the roads are built first. If aggregate contains even a modest iron content, it will rust and corrode, and be completely unsuitable for use in concrete (rust expands similar to freezing water); however, its use as a road construction material is unaffected. Eskers are considered to be the best source; esker pits where the aggregate is found to be completely free of iron, or nearly so, should be quarantined and reserved exclusively for use in dam construction. It is unknown what the proportion of iron- free aggregate is overall, and at the start it might prove better to be cautious and reserve all qualifying pits until a better understanding of the proportion is determined. Of course, should iron- contaminated aggregate prove to be rare, there will be no special requirement to protect and segregate the esker pits that are devoid of iron. When depleted and if required, the esker pits should be backfilled with suitable local material to raise their surface slightly above the surrounding terrain (to allow for settling) and sculpted to a humped shape.

2.13.2 Least Cost Transmission Corridor With the main market in the US Mid-West states, the route for the transmission line is directly south towards the Minnesota border near Fort Frances. Should there be issues with this route, an alternative is to move the route west into Manitoba to skirt the western edge of Shoal Lake and the Lake of the Woods, arriving at the US border near Warroad, Minnesota. This second way is less direct, but could avoid objections to the first route; it also merges with a Manitoba Hydro corridor.

Lateral lines can be designed to connect to the northwest near Hudson Bay with Manitoba Hydro in the Nelson River basin and due west to Winnipeg via Kenora. These lines are intended to provide the transmission network some robustness in the event of line outages and to provide American customers the assurance that power will continue to be delivered under adverse weather conditions. This robustness also benefits Manitoba Hydro, which presently has two high voltage DC lines from the Nelson River to Winnipeg, and which extend south into Minnesota.

A line already mapped out by Hydro One from Conawapa on the Nelson River to Sudbury is also to be investigated; this line would be essential were power to be delivered to Southern Ontario and to Michigan via Sault Ste Marie. (The Conawapa project was stillborn, but the transmission planning effort might be of some use.) It should be understood that power from the Severn River is not intended to compete with Manitoba Hydro; rather, it is intended to supply an expanded market for clean electricity as coal plants are closed. The US market is large; co-operation will yield a better return for both partners.

The following work is to be done by the Geographic Analysts with technical assistance as required. The main transmission corridor is planned for two sets of towers in parallel, approximately 40 metres in height, each capable of holding one bi-polar DC circuit with 2 wires on one level. The right-of-way will have to be clear cut about 140 metres wide although at first only one set of towers will be built and only 75 metres width of the right-of-way will need to be cleared. The span between adjacent towers is typically 450 metres depending on the terrain. Corridors are to be arrow-straight for as far as possible until interrupted by geography, typically lakes or insurmountable ridges. The total length of the main transmission corridor is expected to be about 950 km with the two lateral single-tower corridors adding another 700 km or so.

Single-tower collector transmission lines will link the powerhouses with AC circuits and require at most a 50 metre wide right-of-way corridor and perhaps half of this if shorter wooden poles are used in some sections with lower voltages and lower power ratings. The AC voltage is stepped up and rectified into high-voltage DC at certain junction points for transmission south. Line capacity needs to be determined for each segment of the transmission corridor to avoid transmission congestion. The total length of the collector transmission segments is about 1,000 km, including along the developed tributaries of the Severn River. The amount of underwater cable linking the wind turbines is uncertain at this writing.

On the left, one AC transmission tower line with two 3Ø circuits; 3Ø transmission AC one two with line left, tower the On on the right, two bipolar DC transmission lines each with one DC circuit. DC one with two bipolar transmission DC each lines right, the on

Photograph 2: Transmission Lines

An access road will be required along the entire length of the transmission rights-of-way, to be constructed mostly within their clear-cut boundaries. The road need only be passable by four wheel drive trucks with high ground clearance capable of negotiating short grades of 15%. Frequent lateral roadway connections to a better highway will reduce stem times for construction and maintenance crews. Trucks have chains mounted on their tires in winter to help negotiate the steeper grades through ice and snow.

There is no need to plan electricity distribution within Native communities. All existing communities have diesel generation and a local distribution network already exists. Thus, all that is needed is to construct transmission from the powerhouse AC collector network to the location where the diesel generation takes place, install a step-down transformer, manual (lockable) disconnects, and bulk metering, isolate the diesel units, connect the transformer, and the supply can be safely transferred over. The local community can be billed at bulk rates (which are less expensive) and the community can bill individual residential and business customers at whatever retail rates they set on their own to recover their costs. Of course, eliminating diesel generation is an environmental plus. Compared to the present diesel operation, hydro-electricity might be one- fifth the cost of diesel generation, if not less. (Leaving the diesel generating units in situ for backup can be a decision of the local First Nation communities. A rigorous electrical isolation protocol will be needed to ensure a safe restoration of transmission power after any outage.)

Since no power can be sold anywhere until a transmission line is in place, it is likely that construction of a transmission line will begin in parallel with the construction of the access road before any dams are built. While building the access road is a linear process, usually starting at one end and continuing to the other, segments of the transmission line can be built wherever there is access to an established road. The transmission line will cross Highway 17 possibly just east of Longbow Corners (junction of Highways 17 and 71), providing a starting point for constructing the line both north towards the Severn River basin (300 km) and south to the Minnesota border (150 km). The initial line has one circuit with provision for an additional circuits to be added later as the generation capacity builds.

In constructing the transmission line, it might prove efficient to construct the towers at a central location and lift them into place by helicopter. In this way, the materials for each individual tower need not be sent to thousands of individual locations. One helicopter lift does the job.

It is understood that prior to the construction of anything, commercial contracts for the sale of the electric power will be in place. There will also be an agreement negotiated with an American transmission firm, likely ITC, a subsidiary of Fortis (Fortis has its headquarters in Newfoundland). ITC has transmission facilities in Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, and Oklahoma8. With co-operation, this should provide good penetration into the US Mid-West for power from the Severn River and from Manitoba Hydro.

2.14 PHASE XIV: Final Report

The engineering researchers prepare a final report at the conclusion of the research and publish it in an appropriate academic publication or on-line on the research web site. It is uncertain whether a professionally finished printed version is to be prepared for distribution and no provision has been made in the preliminary budget for such a possibility.

2.15 Discussion The yield from the intended research, following the 14 phases outlined above, is a comprehensive examination of the power and energy possibilities over a ten-year time domain. A longer time domain might be possible if the necessary data can be found and the computing time is not excessive. In any event, the results are a basis for examining hydro-electric potential anew, as it might be possible to improve the yield on some river systems that are already developed.

In the latter part of the research, formal provision is made for the inclusion of a First Nation advisor. The timing of this is not carved in stone and might be started earlier. The desire is to have some assistance in addressing Native issues that have been gathered and that require some in-depth knowledge of Indigenous culture and the future they desire for themselves. There is some travel involved with this position.

Beginning at Chapter 7, this thesis outlines what it might take to actually construct a DHE system using the Severn River Watershed as a model. This is not a promotion that such a system be built, but rather it provides a sense of the scale that such a development will involve and what it might cost to construct it.

Chapter 3 Analysis

3.0 Geographic Background

The Patricia Portion of the District of Kenora, through which the Severn River flows, consists of the Canadian Shield in its southern portion and the Hudson Bay Lowlands in its northern tier. The entire area is undergoing glacial rebound at an average rate of roughly one centimetre per year, which is fast in geological terms. This topography presents an interesting analytical challenge. The shield is a rising plateau, rocky with many lakes, some of them quite large; the lowlands are a desolate barren uninhabited swamp of mostly muskeg, low shrubs, and sedges with few trees, and almost devoid of lakes.

3.1 Hudson Bay Lowlands

The Hudson Bay Lowlands are on a gradual escarpment that persists to tidewater; much of this area was the former bottom of the southwestern edge of Hudson and James Bay when the land was much lower before glacial retreat and rebound began. Since it has been about 22,000 years since the last glacial maximum9, by definition the glaciers have been retreating ever since and correspondingly the land also has been rebounding since then as the mass of ice melted, albeit initially at a negligible rate. Sea levels were about 160 metres lower than today at the point of maximum glaciation, but the complete melting of the continental glaciers, a process substantially finished some 10,000 years ago, caused the sea level initially to rise much faster than the rate of rebound. For the past 10,000 years with no ice overburden, the rate of rebound has overtaken the rate of sea level rise. In fact, sea level has been has been more or less static with most of the glaciers melted ten millennia ago. This has exposed the Hudson Bay Lowlands as the land is gradually pushed upwards.

The entire Hudson Bay Lowlands are uninhabited and uninhabitable. Permafrost is prevalent in large parts of this zone. The only activity noted is a diamond mine near the Attawapiskat River. Communities along the coastline have fly-in access throughout the year plus winter roads during the few weeks when temperatures will sustain such infrastructure.

3.2 Canadian Shield Plateau

From the view of this thesis, the layout of the land is quite convenient: the Canadian Shield forms the highest points of land in a plateau, where precipitation is collected and concentrated into the main rivers. These main rivers, upon reaching the lip of the escarpment leading down to the Hudson Bay Lowlands, have considerably larger volume and greater hydro-electric potential. Consider the plateau to be a giant funnel, directing the water into one of six possible outlets, of which the Severn River and its two main tributaries are three. Most of the high-head dams are in the escarpment area where the river gradient is greater.

3.3 Channelisation

Hydro-electric potential further aided by the fact that the river has carved channels through the muskeg overburden as it has cascaded down the escarpment for the past 10,000 years after the most recent retreat of the glaciers. In that time, the land has risen some 100 metres, further adding impetus to the water. The channels are critical since the channel walls can confine the water and allow high-head dams to be constructed with minimal overland flooding.

Over time some parts of the land have risen more than others. While for the most part, the channels will confine the water, there are places where, on one side of the river or the other, there is no confinement in reasonable proximity. This will present some challenges to resolve during the research.

It might be argued that flooding a larger area will be of little consequence (until recently, this was the bottom of Hudson Bay after all), such arguments will have to wait for the research to assess the consequence of the area which could be inundated.

3.4 Flooding Scenarios It is mainly in the plateau area that the four flooding scenarios (stated earlier) will be modelled. In this area, the streamflows are less and the opportunity is limited for achieving a high-head sites which increase the chances of flooding. Of course, the head will be enhanced if the headpond surface elevation can be raised, but this immediately leads to containment issues and an application of the latter two of the four flooding scenarios mentioned earlier. (See Sketch 1.)

Flooding can be a contentious issue. Given the bifurcated topology of these rivers, were flooding severely restricted in significant areas of the plateau area, the impact on the financial viability of the development might be minimal. Streamflows are modest in the higher reaches of the plateau, making the hydro-electric yield lower. At worst, less of the plateau area might be developed to reduce the contrary discussion and objections that flooding brings while eliminating a few of the marginal locations from consideration. However, what is lost is the ability to marshal the water in a controlled manner to ensure that the larger powerhouses downstream are always supplied with water in a timely manner. The simulation analysis will be directed to address this issue.

The possibility of flooding in certain areas of the Hudson Bay Lowlands will also have to be examined. This boggy area seems to have no redeeming qualities about it other than perhaps it is a future coal field in the making, if one is prepared to wait a few hundred million years. Accordingly, the loss of confinement in the channelized part of the river should not be considered a grave ecological concern, but it will have to be examined just the same to define the extent of flooding that might occur. There appears to be little risk of the entire lowlands being flooded through one gap in the channel wall; however, should the area of flooding be deemed to be “excessive” (however that might be defined), dikes can be constructed at key points to restrict and confine the water to a smaller area. The construction of said dikes would have to take place well in advance of the point when the flooding will occur to ensure that the local material used in the dikes will have had sufficient time to dry out and settle into a compact mass.

3.5 Initial (Manual) Dam Placement 3.5.1 River Cross-Section Profile A cross-section of the Severn River including its two main tributaries, the Fawn and Sachigo Rivers, was prepared (Plate 2). This was done manually using topographical maps available in the Robarts Library. The length of the rivers was determined using the Centreline Route (or main channel) of each; this is akin to straightening the rivers as if there were no bends in them. The elevations were taken from contour lines marked on the maps; for metric maps, contours are every ten metres and for non-metric maps, every 25 or 50 feet (then converted into metres).

Features of interest were assigned a distance (measured from the outlet or confluence) and an elevation; most elevations had to be interpolated. Interstitial falls and rapids between two contour

62 lines were assigned a weight depending on the symbols marked on the map that indicated the relative size of the drop at these features. These weights were then used in an algorithm to assign a head to each of these features. At all times, river portions had a positive slope and lake sections were assigned a slope of zero.

Each point of inflection in the river slope, start and end of a lake, location of falls and rapids, and other points of interest (such as where contour lines were crossed) were assigned co-ordinates and plotted. When the co-ordinates were connected with a solid line, the profiles emerged for the three rivers. This portion of the exercise was completed by marking the lakes, placing the geographic names, and marking the channelisation contours.

3.5.2 Locating the First Dam The cross-section was populated with dams, starting at the lowest practical point and working upstream from there. The lowest dam is not placed at sea level since there are tides on Hudson Bay which can reach 5.5 metres. In fact, the tailrace of the lowest dam depicted (N-01) is at 11.5 metres above mean sea level. This can eventually allow for an additional dam to be included (N-00), possibly at elevation 3.0 metres based on the present sea level. But this will be the last dam to be constructed in a built system, and much can happen in the intervening decades before the point of construction is reached.

The uncertainty is caused by sea level rise and Global Warming. The oceans of the Earth have a great capacity to absorb heat, which at this stage can moderate the overall warming of the atmosphere. But as this process moves along with progressively more heat being absorbed, the warmed oceans of the world will expand and sea level will rise. In fact, ocean levels are already rising at about 3 mm per year with warming reaching down to a depth of 700 metres, and in some places lower than this depth10. Also contributing to sea level rise is the extent of glacier melting in Greenland and Antarctica.

The conclusion is that dam N-00 might never be built, or will be considerably altered from what might appear to be feasible with today’s data. The analysis will ignore dam N-00 and proceed without considering any contribution of effect it might have. Dam N-01 will be the first dam for the time being.

3.5.3 Placing the Remaining Dams The high-head dams on the main river were located first, starting at the lowest elevation with dam N-02. Each dam was placed in such a way that the tailrace of the upper dam was at the same elevation as the headpond of the lower dam. In this way, no head was lost between dams. This was easy to do in the area of channelisation, but as soon as the river was above the channelisation zone, placing the high-head dams became a best-guess scenario.

Once all of the high-head locations were selected, low-head dams are placed in the gaps between them. Two or more low-head dams were needed to fill some of the gaps. In other places, it was necessary to adjust the locations of the adjacent high-head dams to fit the low-head dams properly.

It was desired that the low-head dams have a minimum head of two metres. For the high-head dams, it was desired that they not be below seven metres, and absolutely not below six metres. In the end, two high-head dams came out to be 6.5 metres with the balance being seven metres or more. Since this was a simple illustrative exercise without the benefit of a digital elevation model, such a casual approach could be tolerated; with the computer simulation, adherence to a seven- metre minimum for the high-head sites might become more important. The reason for this is the issue of cavitation, which is explained elsewhere in this thesis.

Placing the dams on the two tributaries is similar. However, the starting point is given by the elevation of the headpond of the dam immediately below their respective confluences.

The decision regarding how far up each branch of the river to continue depends on two factors: the streamflow that is available and the head that can be attained. A large lake high up in the watershed is likely a good place to end the development, especially if the topographical maps show the lake to be supplied by numerous small rivers as this will assure a steady supply of water. Both the Severn and Sachigo Rivers have relatively large lakes near their headwaters.

Alternatively, if there is only a small lake but still a considerable length of river remaining, it is possible to take a different approach. Without a lake to store water, the ability to generate will be limited during peak demand periods. The amount of live storage is usually not that great at the higher elevations, but this can be overcome by including a Temporary Storage Weir above the highest headpond. This will intercept the water at night before it gets to the headpond, and when the weir is full it will simply overflow and start to fill the headpond itself. Depending on the

64 streamflow and topology, more than one Temporary Storage Weir can be placed in series to increase the nightly stored capacity. The Fawn River includes a Temporary Storage Weir.

3.5.4 Dam Table Below is a table listing a summary of the dams in Plate 2. What has been discovered from other work done is that in each major river in the Patricia Portion, the number of dams is approximately the same for each despite varying drainage areas. This is because the terrain is similar in each case and the total drop – about 420 metres – is also more or less the same. What does change is the volume of water and the size of the dams necessary to contain that water.

River High-Head Low-Head Weir Total Severn 16 22 0 38 Fawn 11 13 1 25 Sachigo 9 . 2 . 0 . 11 . .

Total 36 37 1 74

3.6 Live Storage

Each headpond has a layer at the top designated as live storage. The thickness of this layer will vary from site to site but typically will be from as little as 0.25 metre to more than one metre. This is the volume of water that can be drawn down throughout the day from a full dam in the morning to a depleted dam in the evening. The water is replaced at night when no generation is required.

The advantage of live storage is the ability to time shift water from night to day, thus enhancing the amount of power that is created during the day when it is most needed. The amount of live storage that will be beneficial at each headpond will be determined through the simulation runs. One aspect that might be investigated is, should the live storage be a fixed volume, or should it vary with the day of the week or weekends vs weekdays, or with the seasons, or some combination of these or other factors?

Clearly, it will be desirable to keep the surface elevation of the headponds as high as possible for as long as possible throughout the day to maintain the maximum head and thus the maximum amount of power that can be created at each powerhouse. Generation will be allocated first to those sites that are approaching overflow to avoid spilling water unharnessed, with further

65 allocations assigned to sites where the headpond drawdown will be least affected (ie, those sites with the larges headpond surface area) and where it will not cause downstream issues.

3.7 Operating Concept

The operating objective is to generate as much power during the day as possible to match the IESO forecast while generating as little as possible at night. This might sound simple, but when 73 powerhouses are involved and water is in motion from one dam to the next, it can become much more complex to resolve. Water will be flowing downstream from one headpond to the next with varying transit times, and not all headponds are the same size. Thus, the volume and timing of released water is critical to ensure that the headponds below are not overwhelmed, which will cause either water to be spilled or surplus energy to be generated.

The simulation program takes all of these contingencies into effect as it searches for the best operating plan at that moment. The plan cannot be expected to have any durability – demand is constantly changing, wind input is constantly changing, and water resources are always is a state of flux. Thus, every five minutes, the operating plan is recalculated anew taking into account the latest data regarding the status at each dam – making sure that dams do not overflow and spill water while ensuring that headponds are kept as high as possible to get the highest yield from the water, all the while meeting in aggregate the demand required by the grid and ensuring that it can be delivered through avoiding transmission congestion.

Built into this is some flexibility that a pure hydro-electric system does not have. First, the addition of wind greatly extends finite water resources and the dispatchable capability. While wind is not a firm or reliable source of power, with water as a 100% back-up, it can appear to act like it is. Second, integrating a method for absorbing surplus energy removes the need for curtailment. Billions of dollars are invested in the electricity generating assets – being able to use the surplus power that comes at zero marginal cost adds greatly to the financial efficiency of the operation and to the financial return.

Chapter 4 Provisional Research Budget

4.0 Introduction

A preliminary research budget to accomplish the work outlined in the previous chapters is presented in section 4.4; most of the research cost is the amount of labour necessary perform the work involved, although the research computer should get an honourable mention for its efforts. The labour cost for the engineering researchers, all expected to be masters or doctoral graduates, has been set based on the rate paid for teaching assistant work, rounded up from just over $44.00 to $45.00 per hour. Other pay scales have been set as a percentage of this rate, depending on the skills anticipated to be needed. Mandatory payroll taxes and benefits are in addition to the base rate of pay.

Aside from the labour, the remaining expenses are modest, involving some capital items for computer and office equipment and a provision for office renovations. There are provisions for related research travel to conferences and other expenses that also are explained in the following sections. Each member of the team will be issued a smart phone for research use.

A provision is made in the budget for granting modest performance bonuses for contributions which demonstrably exceed expectations. This is a difficult issue to define on paper at this point; guidelines will be needed.

The contemplated research is a serious attempt to resolve with a degree of acceptable accuracy some difficult questions. The approach is believed to be unique, made possible largely by technological advances in computing technology and software. The answers to the question regarding how much recoverable power and energy is in a river is necessary if Canada genuinely wishes to move towards a low carbon economy11 with minimal economic disruption.

4.1 Travel and Conferences

As the research proceeds, the engineering researchers will be encouraged to attend appropriate conferences, present co-authored papers, and publish interim results as the opportunities arise. Membership in certain organisations might also be sought, such as the Ontario Waterpower

Association. There will also be meetings with government and industry officials; some of these meetings will be outside Toronto, especially those with the federal government. Participation in these events and memberships in such organisations will be paid as a research expense.

Part of the research will include travel to meet with the local First Nations leadership in the Severn River watershed to inform them of progress with the research being undertaken and to seek their views and guidance. In particular, since eleven different Native groups are believed to be resident in the Severn River watershed plus two more that will be connected to the access road, it will be necessary to know which area each occupies or considers to be its traditional hunting and fishing grounds. Information on cultural sites will also be sought. The objective is to develop a rapport with the Native leadership, to discover the issues that are important to them, and to foster a climate of mutual trust and respect. The budget allows for an annual meeting during the course of the research.

4.2 Internet Web Site

The research team will maintain a web site on the Internet and post a description of the research being undertaken, a list of financial supporters, published research reports, and other relevant information. It will publish milestone updates on the research as it proceeds. The budget for setting up a simple site and maintaining it including all fees is included in the Operating Overhead.

A separate computer is used for connecting the web pages to the Internet; the original copy is backed up on the server (not connected to the Internet). Security for the Internet site is maintained, but it will not matter if the Internet site is hacked since it can be replaced quickly with a clean copy. Gaining access to the Internet site will not provide access to any of the secure research data.

4.3 Personal Communications

With the exception of the Administrator position, there will be no landlines in the research office. The Administrator’s landline number will be published on the website and will be the number for incoming initial outside contact. Each member of the research team will be issued with a smart phone for their exclusive use while they are working on the research. It will be set to give them notifications when research-related e-mails are received so that it will not be necessary to be constantly checking the Internet-connected computers for messages. There will be restrictions placed on data use and call minutes should these prove to be necessary.

In setting up the computers that will be connected to the Internet, consideration also will be given to using them for Skype. Conference calling over Skype is apparently easier.

The issue of laptop computers for personal communications is under consideration. The issue here is that researchers can defeat the data security protocol discussed earlier since they will have active and unsecure USB ports. It will be all too easy to make a mistake and use a portable data drive incorrectly. A Virtual Private Network (VPN) can be a consideration, but this only provides security of communication, not immunity from malware. This needs to have some thought put into it so that the applicable protocol is workable if such can be found.

4.4 Provisional Research Budget

The research is planned to take at most seven years and involve a team of up to twelve people. The attached spreadsheet shows the details from which the following summaries have been taken (see Gantt Chart). Note that payroll overhead is a 20% allowance based on total compensation for payroll taxes and that operating overhead is a 30% allowance for office supplies, software licencing, and equipment maintenance plus benefits and performance bonuses. Compensation has been based on the rate paid to graduate students for teaching assistant work, discounted by 20% to set the rate for the Computer Programmers and the Database Specialist, and by 40% to set the rate for the Administrator and the Geographic Analysts. At this point, all compensation figures are simply estimates and likely will change to market oriented rates.

A contingentcy allowance of 20% is assessed against the gross estimate of the project. The work should be completed within a time interval of five to seven years with the work content stated, but items which have not been considered might arise. Some work content of certain phases might be understated. The budget above is for the maximum time allotment; it is possible that the entire research might be completed on a tighter timeline. Also, there is no allowance for inflation on the compensation and payroll overhead portion of the budget (which makes up over 75% of the total cost of the budget presented below). With steady inflation of 2%, for example, the compensation figures in the final column can rise by almost 15% to retain the same value in real terms as the first column; the cumulative effect is closer to 58%. Also, there is no provision for office space at the University or for utilities, Internet, etc; this has yet to be discussed with the appropriate authorities.

The Total Annual Estimate, summed over seven years, is $5.43-million. This figure is preliminary and makes no allowance for contingencies or inflation. Were an allowance of 20% made for contingencies, the total budget for the project over seven years could be about $6.5-million without inflation being considered. Clearly, if the project can be completed sooner (the time range is five to seven years), the cost will be lower.

Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7

Managing Director $ 86,400 $ 86,400 $ 86,400 $ 86,400 $ 86,400 $ 86,400 $ 86,400 Administrator 23,760 47,520 47,520 47,520 47,520 47,520 34,560 Geographic Analyst (3) 116,640 129,600 129,600 129,600 43,200 21,600 8,640 Hydraulic Engineer 50,400 86,400 86,400 86,400 86,400 86,400 86,400 Software Engineer 3,600 43,200 43,200 43,200 21,600 0 21,600 Programmer (3) 0 190,080 207,360 207,360 34,560 34,560 17,280 Database Specialist 11,520 11,520 0 11,520 0 0 0 Wind Engineer 0 0 14,400 86,400 86,400 86,400 86,400 First Nation Consultant 0 0 0 0 21,600 43,200 43,200

Total Compensation $ 292,320 $ 594,720 $ 614,880 $ 666,000 $ 427,680 $ 406,080 $ 384,480

Payroll Overhead (20%) 58,464 118,944 122,976 133,200 85,536 81,216 76,896 Operating Overhead (30%) 87,696 178,416 184,464 199,800 128,304 121,824 115,344 Travel and Conferences 7,500 10,000 12,500 17,500 26,000 26,000 23,000

Office Renovations 65,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 Office Security 10,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 Office Furniture 20,000 7,500 2,500 0 0 0 0 Computer Workstations 16,000 6,000 2,000 0 0 0 0 Colour Plotter 25,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 Photocopier/Printer 7,500 0 0 0 0 0 0 Simulation Computer 75,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 Server 5,000 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Annual Estimate $ 654,980 $ 915,580 $ 939,320 $1,016,500 $ 667,520 $ 635,120 $ 599,120

Contingency (20%) 130,996 183,116 187,864 203,300 133,504 127,024 119,944

Total Estimate $ 785,976 $ 1,098,696 1,127,184 1,219,800 801,024 762,144 719,664

Rounded to $ 786,000 $ 1,099,000 $ 1,127,000 $ 1,220,000 $ 801,000 $ 762,000 $ 720,000

Cumulative Budget $ 786,000 $ 1,885,000 $ 3,012,000 $ 4,232,000 $ 5,033,000 $ 5,795,000 $ 6,515,000

Chapter 5

Miscellaneous Technical Issues Including Security

5.0 Background

Once the simulation program is up and running, it is possible to consider incorporating additional features which might introduce more realism to the operation. Several suggestions are made in the following sections and are presented in no particular order.

Security has several meanings: security of data from contamination by erroneous figures, security of software from malware, security of the research offices from unwanted intrusion, and physical security of the researchers as they work. Often overlooked until it is too late, security must be built-into the research plan from the start. Clearly, data security is one thing that everyone will understand, but security of the workplace must also be a consideration. Data and back-ups are discussed in the two sections which follow, but in this section, physical security is a topic also to be discussed, for both the assets within the workplace but also – and more importantly – for the people who work there.

5.1 Miscellaneous Technical Issues 5.1.1 Overgeneration Each turbine and generator has a rated (nameplate) capacity at which it is most efficient. However, these figures do state an absolute limit on the capacity of the equipment. With the turbine, the limiting factor is loss of efficiency and possibly vibration at higher rotational speeds. With the generator, aside from loss of efficiency and vibration, the main issue is heat, which can be fatally destructive.

The generators are designed to draw air though them and over the windings to vent excess heat. At their rated capacity, the windings temperature remains stable, but when the rated capacity is exceeded, heat will begin to accumulate faster than it can be shed. However, if the rated capacity is resumed before any heat damage is done to the windings, the excess heat can be gradually shed and the windings eventually will return to the rated temperature. This can take hours, depending on the amount of excess heat to be shed and the ambient temperature.

Typically, the overgeneration power overload profile might look like this: Overgeneration Duration Cool Down +10% 120 minutes 6 hours +50% 5 minutes 6 hours +300% Short Circuit 15 seconds -

During the cool-down period, the generator can operate at full capacity as it gradually sheds the excess heat built up in the windings and steel laminations through convection and radiation.

The table opens up interesting possibilities for gaming the output under extreme conditions. The best application would be possibly operating some or all plants at 10% overcapacity at the daily morning and afternoon peaks during the freshet when water is abundant, the demand for the power is confirmed, and the efficient use of water is not a consideration. However, the issue of thermal aging of the generator windings could become an issue that might prematurely end the useful life of the generating equipment. This then becomes a simple economic exercise in determining which mode of operation yielded the better return over the long term.

The short circuit overload is included to show how resilient this equipment can be. It is expected that the circuit breaker associated with the shorted generator output would open in less than a second, immediately isolating it from its power bus in the powerhouse. In this case, the 15 second limit would never be tested and the generator would not suffer any thermal damage under short circuit conditions.

The simulation model can be designed to include an overgeneration routine if it senses that it cannot process all of the water in the headpond without spillage.

5.1.2 Start/Stop Cycles and Excessive Equipment Wear The DHE operational protocol calls for a review of the generation mix at all powerhouses in each watershed every five minutes. In theory, this could result in generating units cycling on and off, back and forth every five minutes in a continuous start-stop cycle. How would this affect the long- term operation of the equipment?

In striving to model as realistic a situation as possible, there is a concern that each start-stop cycle of a generating unit consumes a small slice of its useful life through modest thermal aging, which

72 is stated as a concern in the “Overgeneration” section. Each time a generator starts up, its windings begin to heat through electrical resistance and the wires expand through thermal expansion; when the generator stops for a prolonged time so that the ambient temperature is resumed, the windings shrink back to their original size. This expansion and shrinking is within the elastic deformation of the windings, so the wires are not damaged in any way. However, the insulation surrounding the wires is not as elastic and will eventually crack in places leading ultimately to dielectric failure and shorts between the adjacent coils where two cracks randomly line up. While the coils can tolerate some modest shorts between adjacent windings, over time as more of the insulation breaks down and more windings are shorted, the efficiency of the coils declines to the point that the generator is no longer able to satisfactorily perform its rated function. This is a cumulative effect and can take years or decades to manifest itself.

High-voltage impregnating resins are more susceptible to thermal aging than lower voltage resins. Lower voltage resins tend to become “sticky” and pliable with heat, and will stretch and shrink with the windings as they go through the cycle of use. High-voltage resins are rigid thermoset plastics that resist any change in shape once they are baked and cured12. Since the thermoset resin sets and cures while hot, it “freezes” around windings that are extended; when the windings cool and try to shrink, they are held mostly in their extended position and very little movement takes place, freezing them in a state of mild tension. If the rated capacity of either type of winding is not exceeded, longevity should not be an issue. Only the bearings and brushes should require replacement on routine maintenance schedules.

Therefore, to answer the question posed at the start of this section, repeated start-stop cycles every five minutes does not have any thermal aging effects on the windings since the windings do not have an opportunity to appreciably cool down, certainly not near ambient temperature, within five minutes. However, that is not the entire story.

Every time a generating unit is taken off-line, its isolation breaker must open so that the generator windings become disconnected from the bus and grid. With sophisticated electronics capable of monitoring all aspects of operations in a powerhouse, the breaker can be programmed to open just before the reverse power threshold is achieved, gaining every last bit of energy. This minimises the arcing and damage to the breaker contacts since the contacts will be opening when the current transfer and voltage across the contacts are both low. Nevertheless, the breaker contacts do

73 experience mechanical and electrical wear and tear each time the breaker opens and closes. (The simulation ignores those situations where a breaker must open under full load where the contacts can be severely burned by arcing. After such a situation, an immediate inspection of the equipment will be necessary and the breaker contacts might need immediate replacement.)

The simulation program tracks the number of times each generating unit is placed on-line and taken off-line for future reference in costing the equipment durability and operating costs. It can also track the duration between service runs to determine if aging might occur from completely cooling down.

With a built system, there is an interesting operating protocol to be decided. Are all generators to be operated for more or less the same amount of time each month and year, or are the generators ranked for operation? (If ranked for operation, one generator is always operated first, the second one is chosen only if the first is already selected, the third is chosen only if the first two are already selected, and so on.) If the generators are operated with approximately equal cumulative operating times, they will all age at about the same rate and possibly need replacement at the same time, as will their bearings, brushes, and so on; this might lead to a serious reduction in generating capacity were several generators to need replacement at the same time. This might also result in a procurement issue if it takes months to obtain new equipment; it would not be good to have an entire powerhouse out of service waiting for replacement equipment. If the second operational method were deployed, one generator would wear out ahead of the rest and need replacing in isolation of all the others. This might lead to less disruption in generation since the risk of having more than one generator out of service at any given time would be low.

5.1.3 Measuring Stress in Dams One design feature of the dam structure is the inclusion of 10 mm conduits lengthwise continuous through the dam structure from end to end through which glass fibres can be placed under mild tension. Laser light can then be passed through these glass fibres at a known (base) frequency and the frequency of the received light is recorded. The frequency of the received light at the other end can be checked on a regular basis; the transmitted light is always at the base frequency. If there are known seismic events in the area, this check should be performed immediately.

What this test is determining is if one part of the dam is moving in relation to the rest of the dam. Should any movement occur, some of the glass fibres might come under increased tension while others might come under less tension, depending on the direction of the motion and its magnitude. The change in tension from the pre-set value will show as a change in the received frequency of the laser light – a higher frequency if the glass is under higher tension and a lower frequency if the glass is under lower tension. This can be a very sensitive test for geological rebound, especially where there are known fault lines beneath the dam and a risk that one end might lift faster than the other.

While rebound and seismic events might be less of a concern at those dams built on permafrost, the stability of the foundations of these dams will remain an issue. The laser light monitoring is not expected to be expensive, so to have it deployed at all the high-head dams is likely prudent. It is not expensive to deploy if built into the dam at the time of construction.

The weirs and low-head dams do not need to have laser monitoring built into their structures. The weirs are low structures and not under as much stress as high-head dams that can be many times their height. Should weirs develop cracks or other signs of failure, they are repairable. Low-head dams are not continuous structures, but rather are a series of piers with log-stops holding back the water in the gates between the piers. Thus, each low-head dam can be flexible at the gate structures. However, the powerhouses attached to the low-head dams are rigid and possibly present a greater challenge. The powerhouse will not be holding back any water – the water just flows though it via the turbines and tailrace – so if it shifts in position, this can be accommodated within reason and without harm to the operations.

5.1.4 Solar Power While solar energy has been eliminated from consideration at the start of this thesis, this is for simplicity and convenience. Both water and wind are the acknowledged major players at northern latitudes. However, for completeness, solar energy can and should be considered at some point, possibly in a future version of the simulation program when it might undergo a major revision.

The main advantage of solar energy is that its availability largely coincides with the peak demand hours of the grid. Its main disadvantage is that it is an intermittent source, subject to attenuation by atmospheric conditions (mostly clouds) and rare solar eclipses. With a built system and a

75 network of mini weather stations deployed (see Section 6.1.2), it is possible to gather the amount of sunlight available in each reporting period (possibly every six hours). This allows a very accurate model to be devised and included in the simulation program.

The output from the solar cells is DC voltage. This has to be inverted into AC voltage before it can be transformed up to the appropriate voltage for transmission through the collector transmission network.

There is no control over the solar output – it comes and goes similar to the wind as the sunlight intensity varies throughout the day. The only maintenance issue might be keeping the solar panels clean, especially from bird droppings and snow accumulation. Were the solar panels to be mounted on racks that could track the sun throughout the day for optimal solar energy output, maintenance of the mechanism that accomplished this feat might be another consideration.

When the simulation program and the attendant databases are developed, provision for inclusion of solar energy can be made without actually programming any code to take action or recognise solar power input. This makes adding solar power to the simulation at a later date a little easier.

5.1.5 Manufacturing Hydraulic Turbines Once this project moves into the construction phase, there is a need for a plethora of turbines plus ancillary equipment such as sluice gates, inlet troughs, and butterfly valves. These items could all be sourced outside except for one of them: the low-head turbine technology. The design of this turbine should remain a trade secret for as long as it takes to develop one of the four main rivers in the Patricia Portion, possibly the Severn River. By doing so, it makes it difficult for others to compete through copying what is being done in the first watershed to be developed under DHE. If the results are as good as projected, competition will immediately be attracted. While competition is normally considered to be good, it would have to be demonstrated that a genuine better mousetrap is being put forward and not just a copy of what is being described here.

If the low-head turbine is to remain a trade secret, the best way to accomplish this is to manufacture it in-house in a secure facility. This keeps all the knowledge in one place and those reliant on employment from that knowledge working in the same facility. This facility also can be assigned work involved in making the sluice gates for the weirs and the inlet troughs for the low-head turbines. Having gone this far, there is a much larger step which might be considered.

Approximately as many Francis Wheel turbines for the high-head sites will be needed as low-head Zudel Wheel turbines. Were all four rivers in the Patricia Portion developed, thousands of each turbine design will be needed. However, the Francis Wheel is much more complex in its design and manufacturing requirements. Rather than purchase these turbines from any of the several manufacturers around the world, the suggestion is to enter into a joint-venture with an established manufacturer so that all of the Francis Wheels are manufactured here in Ontario. As part of the deal, the joint-venture partner would gain access to the Zudel Wheel turbine once the four northern watersheds are secured for development. Included with the Francis Wheel agreement should be a butterfly valve design, if available.

5.1.6 Manufacturing Wind Turbine Blades It is mentioned in Section 2.10 (PHASE X) that wind turbine blades are now 100 metres in length and might get longer if their stiffness can be maintained. It is clear that moving such a long dimensional object over roadways presents challenges; these blades have a mass approaching 100 tonnes that possibly makes movement by dirigible not practical given the numbers involved. It is suggested here that a manufacturing plant be located on the shore of Hudson Bay that could make such blades for all wind farms located on Hudson and James Bay. Transport by barge moving three blades at a time can easily be made to any site.

The projection is for 15,000 MW of wind power for the Severn River. It is stated earlier that the manufacturing capability for 15 MW wind turbines are near; thus 1,000 such turbines are needed and 3,000 matching blades. This is an economic quantity to establish a factory and keep it busy for five to ten years based on the recent experience of Siemens in Southern Ontario.

5.1.7 Absorbing Surplus Energy Several strategies have come to mind over the development of this thesis and its predecessors regarding the use of surplus electric energy. The desire is to find a process that can use significant amounts of electric energy at times convenient to the generation system, which really means at any time often in huge volume and with short notice. Such processes must be interruptible without consequence. This stipulation eliminates most operations that were considered since most processes, once started, have to operate continuously for some period drawing electricity at a high rate all the time they are active.

There are some processes that require a large amount of electricity to get them started and then a lesser “maintenance” amount of power to keep them active until they draw to a close. Many of these tend to be batch processes, however, and overall do not consume a large amount of electricity. Marketing their relatively small output creates an overhead issue.

So far, two products that have stood out are fixing nitrogen to make ammonia and the manufacture of sulphuric acid. Combined, these two processes consume 2-1/2% of all the energy used annually by the human race in their manufacture. These products are used broadly world-wide, the first as a feedstock for making chemical fertiliser and the second in a myriad of industrial processes. Both use natural gas as their primary energy source although both use varying amounts of electricity as well. These are continuous chemical processes.

Fixing nitrogen is exothermic; once the process is started it will continue unabated provided the inputs (hydrogen and nitrogen) are maintained in the appropriate ratio and that the output (liquid ammonia, NH3) is drawn off as it is produced. Consider it to be the combustion of nitrogen in a hydrogen atmosphere. The energy that goes into manufacturing ammonia is mainly absorbed in the purification of its inputs – hydrogen from water through electrolysis and nitrogen from air through fractional distillation of liquid air. Both inputs can be stored as gasses under high pressure until they are needed in the reaction vessel. The reaction takes place at about 15 – 25 MPa and between 400 – 500o C; it uses an inexpensive iron catalyst. Since the reaction takes place at high pressure, storing the reagents at high pressure is not a disadvantage.

While liquid ammonia has its uses, it is more useful to combine ammonia with other chemicals that can enhance the fertiliser application. This yields compounds that are granular substances stable at normal temperatures, which makes for easy storage so long as they do not come into contact with water. Common nitrogen fertiliser compounds are ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulphate nitrate, calcium ammonium nitrate, calcium nitrate, sodium nitrate, and urea.

The manufacture of sulphuric acid is more complex. Here, the basic inputs are hydrogen and oxygen from electrolysis, and elemental sulphur segregated from sour gas wells (a significant amount of elemental sulphur is piling up outside sour gas processing plants in Western Canada since the market for it is thin). The sulphur is combusted in an oxygen atmosphere, then through an elaborate process the sulphur dioxide molecule (SO2) is converted into sulphuric acid (H2SO4).

Manufacturing ammonia and sulphuric acid in tandem creates interesting by-products. First, electrolysis yields pure hydrogen and oxygen; the hydrogen is used in making both ammonia and sulphuric acid while the oxygen goes entirely into sulphuric acid. When air is liquefied and then fractionally distilled, the yield is nitrogen, oxygen, neon, argon, krypton, xenon, and solid carbon dioxide (dry ice). The nitrogen is used in ammonia and the oxygen is used in sulphuric acid. (Any surplus oxygen is taken from the electrolysis lot and is sold as medical quality.) The noble gases are purified and sold. The dry ice is used to make urea, which uses two molecules of ammonia combines with one molecule of carbon dioxide to yield CO(NH2)2 (the by-product is water). Much more carbon dioxide will be needed given that half of the nitrogen fertiliser sold in North America is urea; this might be arranged through constructing a pipeline from the petrochemical industry in Alberta (possibly 30 cm in diameter) rather than have them sequester it underground.

Another possible use of surplus energy is in cement kilns. More work is needed here to determine if this is practical. The goal is to remove carbon from the fuel used in the process. However, it will not be possible to eliminate the emission of carbon dioxide which comes from the cement- making process itself, but if this carbon dioxide can be sequestered, it might go into making urea.

Another process which has been considered is the manufacture of pure silicon crystals from melting and recrystallizing silica sand. Silica sand melts at about 1,700o C. The procedure involves touching a small seed crystal to the surface of liquefied silica sand (silicon) and slowly drawing it upwards at a constant rate while spinning it to form a single giant crystal silicon, about 30 cm in diameter by perhaps 200 cm in length. Given that sand is heavy and costly to move about, a facility for this process would have to be located near a source for the silica sand.

One other concept worthy of mention is the possible establishment of greenhouses in the North. Three new communities are to be established to support the development and almost all food will be imported. Surplus energy could be used to heat greenhouses using a steam generator and high- pressure storage vessel, charged with steam at night, and with sufficient capacity to hold steam over the day when surplus electricity is not available. Creating the steam can vary over the night as surplus energy varies in intensity. This business can be turned over for a First Nation family in each of the communities to operate. There are other such business opportunities that can be initiated for First Nations individuals.

5.1.8 Spalling at Waterline The dams and powerhouses contemplated as a result of this research are public monuments, designed to last for centuries. This is not hyperbole. Concrete was invented by the Romans some 2000 years ago and their public concrete monument, the Pantheon13, has been standing for almost 19 centuries with a solid unreinforced concrete roof some 43 metres in diameter. (See Photograph 3.) Roman concrete resisted crack propagation through the use of volcanic ash14. We have better concrete available for use all these centuries later. With good planning, proper construction, and regular maintenance, any dams and powerhouses built today can be serviceable for centuries.

There are issues that can degrade the life of concrete structures, and in the context of dams in a cold climate, spalling is one such issue. The surface of concrete will flake or spall if water penetrates the surface and then freezes. When the water freezes, it expands, exerts tremendous pressure on the concrete in which it is trapped, and causes the surface to flake off. The use of high-density concrete can reduce the effect through minimising the surface penetration of the water, but the effect is not eliminated. Note that if the concrete surface is always wet with liquid water, there can be no freezing and no spalling can take place. Sketch 5 shows the anticipated issues.

At a dam, where the headpond surface is subject to rise or fall throughout the day in freezing weather, and where wave activity can compound the wetting action, spalling is pronounced in the range over which the dam is allowed to become wet. This eventually leads to a maintenance issue and, if not addressed in a timely manner, it might affect the integrity of the dam. Surfaces that are normally above the high water mark will experience some spalling, but this is of less consequence – it is normally considered to be “weathering”.

The dam wall can be made thicker in the range where the water level will vary. This extra thickness will be “sacrificial”; it does not matter if the spalling erodes down to the original dam wall. As the spalling depth approaches the dam wall, new concrete can be placed into the eroded area to restore the original extra thickness. In this manner, the dam wall itself need never be at risk of erosion by spalling. A visual inspection is easily done to determine when restorative maintenance is required.

Photograph 3: Pantheon, Rome The solid concrete roof is 43 metres in diameter The oculus is 8.2 metres in diameter

Sketch 5: Spalling at Waterline

The spall cavity can be repaired at a period when water levels are low. With high-density concrete, erosion will be slow. It might take decades for a repair to become necessary.

5.1.9 Risk Analysis There are several places where risk can enter into the picture as listed below: • Political risk • Technological risk • Commercial risk • Sociological risk • Research risk • Researcher risk • Funding risk • Earthquake and electromagnetic pulse risk • Ice and Windstorm risk

All nine categories of risk are discussed below, but only the seventh category has the ability to threaten conducting and completing the research.

5.1.9.01 Political Risk This category pertains to all of the issues that require government approval. Here, the term “government” is used broadly to include not only Provincial, Territorial, and Federal law and authorities but also First Nations governments that are resident in the watersheds being developed and over whose traditional lands the roads and transmission lines might cross. Native approval is mandatory. This is subject to lengthy negotiations given the number of parties that might be involved. With a substantial “buy-in” by the First Nations affected, including 100% acceptance by those living within the affected watershed, it would appear difficult for any other level of government to reject a proposal, assuming that any development proposal met all environmental guidelines, including to the satisfaction of the First Nations leadership and people.

5.1.9.02 Technological Risk It is not expected that electricity will be made obsolete, but a technology such as nuclear fusion certainly might influence the future cost structure for electricity. It is known that solar panels and wind turbines are declining in cost. Were the cost of energy storage to also decline and the efficiency of energy conversion to improve, traditional hydro-electric generation might not remain

83 cost-competitive. No attempt has been made to assess these technological risks other than to point out that they exist and should be recognised.

5.1.9.03 Commercial Risk This risk involves securing suitable long-term contracts for the sale of the electric energy that is produced. In this context, suitable means a sales price that allows recover of the capital cost of the infrastructure and provides a reasonable dividend stream to the shareholders; a contract term likely measured in decades, perhaps 30 years, is needed. Without a long-term contract and a price to support the investment, it is difficult to attract the funds necessary to build the infrastructure in the first place. Another commercial risk is the issue of counterparty bankruptcy. Some of the counterparty risk can be mitigated through having multiple contracts, each with different entities and each with different maturity dates so that they do not all come up for renewal at the same time.

Another commercial risk can arise in negotiating with an American firm for transmission or with Manitoba Hydro with to provide a transmission mutual backup arrangement. The transmission link in the US is essential; it is not known if the US transmission company of choice being owned by a Canadian company will be any advantage.

5.1.9.04 Sociological Risk Developing watersheds in an area where its people have heretofore enjoyed splendid isolation, there is a risk of culture shock for the Native population. Quite simply, they will be greatly outnumbered by the thousands of people required to construct, operate, and maintain the infrastructure, their families, and the thousands more who will follow (teachers, medical personnel, shopkeepers, municipal workers, and more, plus their families) to build communities where there were only the equivalent of remote Native hamlets before. The ratio of non-Native to Native might exceed ten-to-one in places. This could be the topic of an entirely different study all on its own.

There are questions regarding how the First Nations can retain their cultural identity, and especially their language. With such a large influx of people from outside, the language of work, commerce, school, and so on will be English. While most Natives understand English, it would not be an exaggeration to say that no one coming from outside lacking a Native heritage will speak or understand a Native language. Without pro-active support, the Native culture could be lost completely in a couple of generations.

The influx of a large number of people from outside presents other forms of risk: discrimination, racism, and other forms of unpleasant interactions that can take place between people of different backgrounds. The unfortunate aspect of this is that it is human nature to act in this way. Just telling people that their employment is based on the graciousness of the First Nations to allow development to take place and for their employment to exist probably will not solve the problem. Regretfully, it likely will take a few dismissals and banishments from the North to get the attention of everyone else contemplating such behaviour and have a salutary effect.

Without a doubt, sociological risk will be the most difficult risk to manage and mitigate. In fact, this could cause the First Nations, or a number of them, to reject having any development take place in their traditional lands.

5.1.9.05 Research Risk In this category, the risk is in the failure of the research to substantially support the conjecture on which it is based. It is stated elsewhere that an integrated wind/water energy system might achieve 60,000 MW of power and 215 TWh annually of energy; this sets the bar high. The research must also show that development can be accomplished in a financially acceptable manner while meeting environmental constraints.

5.1.9.06 Researcher Risk Can the research activities (and remuneration) on offer attract the highly skilled academics needed to conduct the research? The research venue is at a highly rated university with an adequate supply of graduates and graduate students, but this is tempered by the nature of the work that is in a highly specialised field. This narrows the number of potential applicants who might have an interest in this area and the skills needed to perform the work at hand. The research requires a commitment of several years from each research team member; some suitable applicants might not be prepared to commit to such a lengthy period as other opportunities might have to be foregone.

5.1.9.07 Funding Risk Of all the risks listed, none of the first six can stop the research from proceeding, although Researcher Risk might hobble the efforts if appropriate people are not available or selected to perform the work. There is no need for approval from any First Nation for the research to go ahead; in fact, no researcher need ever visit the subject watershed(s). However, the research

85 absolutely cannot be undertaken without attracting sufficient funding to see it through to completion. While mostly government sources will be important to get the research started, public companies also will be approached. It is recognised that monetising the results of the research might be difficult for anyone outside the hydro-electric field, which might severely narrow the number of companies willing to contribute more than a token amount of funds.

The contemplated research is planned as a multi-year endeavour that will require a team of a dozen people to perform the research tasks. Compensation for the research team is the greatest expense for the research; all data sources are available from the public domain although the data must be analysed and processed to make it useful for the research activities. As such, a firm source of funds will have to be secured at the start since laying off researchers for lack of funds is just poor planning and playing with people’s lives.

5.1.9.08 Earthquake and Electromagnetic Pulse Risk The risk of earthquake is not zero in Ontario. The continuous glacial rebound of the Canadian Shield and Hudson Bay Lowlands is not at the same rate in all areas. As some areas rise more while others less, friction develops at the boundaries and stress develops in the bedrock structure, storing a tremendous amount of energy that builds up over time. When the forces build up to the point that they can overcome the natural resistance in the ground, the stress is suddenly relieved and an earthquake results. In the past 40 years, the largest earthquake was magnitude 4.4 (Richter Scale) 15 in Ontario; in all this time, no earthquakes were reported in the Severn River Watershed or offshore in Hudson Bay.

The effect of earthquakes can be mitigated through avoiding fault lines and properly keying the foundations of the high-head dams into the bedrock. The low-head dams might be marginally affected by earthquakes; damage to weirs is repairable.

The use of fibre-optic cable through the high-head dams can assist is assessing the stress placed on these structures from earthquakes.

Electromagnetic pulses can be very destructive on a broad scale. A sharp electromagnetic pulse, such as that caused by a coronal mass discharge from the sun or a nuclear explosion in the atmosphere immediately above, can render electrical equipment inoperable in seconds. Equipment with coils, and windings, such as transformers and generators are particularly vulnerable.

In 2017, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists16 shifted their “Doomsday Clock” to two and a half minutes to midnight from three minutes; this is the closest it has been to midnight since the early 1980s. When a polar map of the world is viewed and the nuclear powers that might get into a war with the United States are considered, any missiles tossed between the two sets of opponents will fly directly over Canada for the most part. Any missiles shot down have a good chance of exploding above Canada or crashing onto it. Clearly a threat exists and it is not zero.

The risk of a coronal mass ejection17 is much greater than a nuclear conflagration, but no less disruptive in its own way. It is well-known that past ejections have caused power blackouts. However, there can be some warning that such an event is likely to occur, although it might only be as little as 12 hours.

There is a means of protection against both these threats, discovered in 1834 by Michael Faraday: the Faraday Cage18. Equipment that is vulnerable to the effects of an electromagnetic pulse can be shielded in an appropriate enclosure that neutralises electric fields within the enclosure. While a fine wire mesh can do this job, solid panels of appropriate conductive material are better provided the gauge (thickness) of the metal is adequate. The enclosure should be grounded to prevent a buildup of any static charge. Normally, transformers and generators are enclosed so this is not a serious issue; it is only necessary to ensure that the enclosures are of adequate thickness and grounded.

The purpose of ensuring protection against electromagnetic pulses at vulnerable points is to greatly improve the resiliency of the power generation and delivery systems, and with a very simple and inexpensive solution. The reliable provision of electricity during what otherwise might be a serious crisis is of inestimable value. The hard part of this is conceiving and implementing the solution, likely at a time when others say it is a waste of resources.

5.1.9.09 Ice and Windstorm Risk The risk of sustained ice storms occurring in the Patricia Portion are low, but with a warming climate and the warmer air masses that will come, this risk will be enhanced. For the reasons explained below, it is the AC transmission that is most vulnerable because of their lower tensile strength to resist the burden ice can place on the wires. Also for the reasons explained below, the DC transmission lines will be able to withstand a considerable ice buildup because of their size.

Photograph 4: Manitoba Hydro Bipole 1 and Bipole 2 Transmission Lines

There is another factor that can mitigate against the buildup of ice on transmission lines, and here the AC lines have an advantage. It is well-known that AC lines lose a noticeable amount of the power being transmitted due to resistance in the wires; this loss manifests itself as heat. Thus, if the transmission lines are being used to capacity, or nearly so, they might be able to warm just enough to allow any ice to lose its adherence and be knocked loose in the wind. For DC lines, this effect is greatly muted and reliance must be placed more on the physical strength of the conductor to offset ant burden placed onto it by ice accumulation.

Transmission lines are most vulnerable to windstorm damage, particularly as a result of thunderstorms. Alternating current lines used in the collector transmission network might be more vulnerable because the wires carry less power, have a smaller diameter, have less mass, and are more easily tossed about in the wind. It is the economics of the cost of these lines and their current carrying capacity that dictates these wires be thinner since the current is carried mostly near the outer surface of the conductors (the so-called “skin-effect).

Direct current wires are more hefty since the current travels equally throughout the entire cross- section of the conductor; they also carry much more power and at very high voltage. Manitoba Hydro uses DC cables with a diameter of Ø4 cm and a current carrying capacity of 3,600 amperes. Normally, the copper in these conductors is wound around a stranded steel core for strength. Given the high density of copper, such a line will have a high mass per unit length and likely will resist a Category 1 hurricane.

5.1.9.10 Discussion The risks outlined are primarily pre-construction risks and relate mainly to the ability to achieve the planning goal of assessing a watershed for the amount of power and energy that might be attained when integrated with wind under a dispatchable régime, as outlined elsewhere. This brings the analysis to the point where a physical assessment of the dam locations might begin. It is at this point that a new set of risks will manifest themselves relating to construction and operational risks, which are not the subject of this thesis.

5.2 Research Security 5.2.1 Access Security Each researcher will have an access card to gain entry to the research offices. A biological scanner, possibly fingerprint or retina scan, might also be considered; this ensures secure access even if the card is lost or stolen. The card will also be required to exit the workplace; this will allow automatic tracking of work hours of each researcher (it also ensures that the access card is not left behind when leaving for the day). Of course, just being in the office does not guarantee work content; the recorded hours are meant as a guide for completing time sheets and allocating hours to different project jobs. A flexible time approach might be considered with core hours from 1000h through 1400h weekdays when everyone is expected to be present (with some exceptions), as this might fit better with each individual’s daily productivity, medical appointments, and so forth.

The research computer and Administrator’s office will be in a separate room with access restricted to a limited number of individuals, possibly the Administrator, the Director and one other individual. While the entire office is air-conditioned, a separate air-conditioning system will be installed for the research computer during the renovations to ensure temperature stability.

The entire work area is covered by high-quality video cameras 24/7; failing this, the entrance door and the research computer access is covered at a minimum. The images are stored for an indefinite period of time; viewing the recorded video will require the consent of the Director. This might be considered to be intrusive, but it will be a condition of being hired to work on the research project. The cameras will be in plain view but since they will make no noise or have no visible lights, they will be unobtrusive and ignored for the most part. The purpose is to enhance researcher and equipment security; it is not possible to consider or even conceive of all contingencies in advance where this might prove to be useful. Clearly, it will also help resolve other security issues that might arise, such as issues regarding performance of data back ups in a timely manner.

There will also be an intrusion alarm connected to a commercial monitoring company. Breaking in will yield objects of little value and there are many softer targets on the campus. The only valuable item is the data in the server, and it will be bolted down and difficult to move within the time that a break-in artist would want to work. Besides, the passwords are needed and

90 downloading will just take too long. Should someone be foolish to break in, the cameras will record everything and be useful for identification.

The security systems can be installed when the office space is renovated prior to occupancy.

5.2.2 Data and Software Security

The risk of computers that are connected to the Internet becoming compromised with malware of one sort or another is a serious threat, ranging from a bothersome nuisance factor to a full-scale encrypted lockout and ransom demand. The only solution to this is easy: Do not connect research computers to the Internet! Protocols are needed for enforcing such a ban, but it is the only way to absolutely protect the work being done. Physically separate computers can be made available exclusively for e-mail correspondence and Internet browsing. When it becomes necessary to transfer information downloaded from the Internet, a protocol is to be established for scanning memory devices onto which the Internet data is stored before such devices can be connected to the local network and their data downloaded onto the server. The University computing center can advise on which anti-virus/malware software or combination of scanning software might be appropriate for screening portable memory devices.

To make this effective and “foolproof”, the individual research computers must have their USB ports disconnected, thus avoiding accidental entry of foreign data that has not been vetted. Once the memory device is scanned and approved by the Administrator, these devices are placed into a USB port in a separate computer near the server and the data loaded into a file which the researcher can access at their own computer workstation through the local network. In addition, it might be advisable to back up the server onto a removable hard drive, and then remove this hard drive, prior to introducing any new data.

It is recognised that such safe computing procedures will introduce a degree of overhead into the work, particularly for the Geographic Analysts who will be reliant on a significant amount of data from Internet sources right from the start. The good news is that once the data is cleanly obtained, the procedure need not be repeated again for that particular data set. All of the clean downloaded data will be archived on the server so that it is accessible by any researcher at any time. The Administrator will co-ordinate the management of the data security protocol.

Should one of the Internet computers become infected with malware (at least two such computers are recommended), this can be remediated with appropriate software tools depending on the level of threat. However, should the threat be severe or unknown, the hard drive can be reformatted and the operating system re-installed without any loss of data since no permanent data is to be retained on these machines. The Administrator will manage reformatting these hard drives as required.

Having only two Internet computers ought not to interfere with e-mail messaging, although another can be added if the demand is there. Quick responses can be made via the smart phone that all will have. Longer responses with attachments, and so on, can be drafted and assembled at the research workstation and uploaded onto a flash drive placed into the Administrator’s computer, then transferred to the Internet computer for review and transmission. A little clunky to be sure, but safe. Flash drives no longer needed will be returned to the Administrator for erasure and reuse.

5.2.3 Back-Up Protocol

The work performed will primarily be stored in computer files. These files will have to be backed up on a fixed schedule to prevent the inadvertent loss of work product. In the event of an adverse event occurring, at most only one day of work product should be at risk.

The following steps are to be taken by each researcher as they work on the project:

• Each researcher will have their own computer on which their work will be saved throughout each work day. Individual computers will have dual identical hard drives in a RAID-119 configuration (mirroring) so that if one drive crashes the data on the other drive will remain intact and accessible. • At the end of each day, an image of the data on their hard drive will be backed up onto the server, properly dated in the format “yyyymmdd”. Using this format as the leading characters in the file name will automatically store the files in chronological order on the server. • At the end of each week, an image of the server is made onto a portable drive for secure storage off-site. This is done by the Administrator. Two off-site (portable) storage devices are used, alternating one week after the other, so that at all times one back-up copy will be kept secure off-site. The server itself has a third copy of the data. Thus, when one copy is taken off-site for storage, the older version is brought back on the next working day to be overwritten when the server is next backed up.

• Flash drives are used for transferring data to and from the server to the Internet computers; they undergo a security check when coming from the Internet computer to the server. Once they have served this single-trip purpose, they are returned to the Administrator for erasure and reuse. The flash drives might be colour-coded to facilitate their use. As stated above, the USB ports on the research computers are disabled to avoid accidental exposure to malware. The only way data can be placed onto the research computers is by direct keyboard entry or by downloading files from the server.

Chapter 6 Environmental and Social Issues

6.0 Background

The first part of this chapter is not intended to delve into the issues of a full environmental assessment. Rather, it will cover certain environmental aspects of the research and some issues that a built system might encounter. The items are listed in no order of importance.

The second part of this chapter delves into the social issues, and here there are also two parts: first, the culture First Nations and how it can be retained when faced with Western culture that can be overwhelming, and second, the communities of workers who will build and operate the infrastructure. There is a fine balance to be made and it will be difficult to get this right.

6.1 Environmental Issues 6.1.1 Methyl-Mercury The release of methyl-mercury into the aquatic food chain can result in a serious, albeit temporary, exposure risk to a permanent health issue: mercury is a neurotoxin. In the existing watercourse, it is likely that trace amounts of mercury might be detected from time to time. This is well below any health threshold by orders of magnitude because the existing rivers are washed clean of most of the mercury to be found in the river beds to the point that only residual trace amounts, if that, remain. This is not so of the land which has not been consistently flooded. In flooding virgin land, aquatic plants are able to establish themselves and take up mercury from the inundated soil and convert it into methyl mercury. Small aquatic life – snails, minnows, etc – nibble on these plants and some of them are eaten by larger fish, who in turn are consumed by yet larger fish, and so on up the food chain to the main predator fish, which are the ones that humans like to catch and eat. At each step in this food chain, the amount of mercury is concentrated more and more in each organism until humans eat the largest fish with the highest concentrations of mercury.

Once ingested, mercury is not eliminated from the body by any organism at any discernable rate. If a watercourse has only trace amounts of mercury in it, the low concentration that can be ingested is insignificant. But if a large amount of new land is flooded, mercury can be detected in the

94 aquatic food chain a year or two thereafter and several years after that unsafe levels might peak in the larger fish depending on the amount of flooding and the initial amount of mercury contamination in the flooded soil.

The mercury that is present in the soil in the northern watersheds comes from a variety of sources, but it is mostly borne by the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions, forest fires, and the combustion of coal. While little can be done about the first two sources, burning coal is something that might be curtailed in the reasonably near future because of air pollution (PM2.5) and greenhouse gas emissions (mainly carbon dioxide). Elsewhere in this thesis, it is stated that the market for the electricity that can be produced through the proposed developments is the American Mid-West. This reduces their reliance on the use of coal for generating electricity.

Ridding the watersheds of mercury is not a hopeless situation since, after peaking in roughly four or five years after inundation, the mercury begins a slow exponential decline and can be washed from the flooded land to well below dangerous levels in about 25 to 30 years. There is a practical upper bound on how much land can be flooded at any given time if levels of mercury contamination in fish at levels dangerous to human health are not to be exceeded, or even approached. The definition of what is dangerous to humans depends on the degree of contamination of the fish, the amount of fish consumed, and a person’s weight; children are particularly at risk.

Note that elemental mercury is not be in the water per se so water is safe to drink, especially if the water is treated; mercury is a heavy metal, is not miscible with water, and will precipitate into the headpond sediment (where the aquatic plant roots can access it). Nor is contaminated organic matter in the water column for the same reasons, since it also drifts to the bottom. A constant monitoring of the water and fish quality will be required, likely on a monthly basis, for 25 or more years after the final dam is built, depending on the level of mercury being detected. Should the mercury levels in the fish exceed a predetermined safe level, the only preventative measure is to close the waters for fishing, which will not be greeted enthusiastically by the Native peoples. Ultimately, the residual mercury is washed into the sea to be dispersed on the floor of Hudson Bay.

It is thought that developing the river system from the top down will result in a manageable way to handle the mercury issue. Here, the initial dams will be small and any associated flooding will also be modest, resulting in a low mercury load in the waterways. A sense for the degree of

95 mercury contamination of the aquatic food chain can be gained and the pace at which development can safely proceed can be set accordingly. As different headponds go through a modest “mercury cycle”, the cumulative effect can be monitored to ensure that an unsafe level is not breached or even approached in any location and at any time.

Further guidance in this area might come from the Muskrat Falls Dam in Labrador where mercury contamination is an issue. The Muskrat Falls headpond is presently being filled. It is representative of very large-scale flooding and valuable insights are likely to be gained here.

Any restriction placed on the pace of development by rising mercury levels might conflict with a developmental desire to get on with the job of building the infrastructure quickly. However, only the pace of hydro-electric development needs to be altered. Farther downstream, the dams planned for the portions of the channelized river might be able to proceed since there will be very little surface flooding at these dams (the river is confined inside the existing river channels). These dams are larger and will require more infrastructure (roads, transmission, and permafrost construction) before they can become productive; accordingly, in the original plan they are being held for later construction.

There is also a wind energy component to this project which might be accelerated as an alternative. The wind turbines are not affected by mercury contamination or any other restriction of a similar nature. However, this also will require the roads and transmission to be completed right down to tidewater. Furthermore, once the wind capacity reaches a certain point, the facilities for absorbing surplus electricity will have to be examined.

The final decision of what to flood and by how much will be made in consultation with the First Nation people resident within the watershed. Grassy Narrows has taught us this lesson: Mercury contamination cannot be ignored.

6.1.2 Mini Weather and Gauging Stations Water from the freshet is intended to be diverted into Impoundment Reservoirs for release later in the year during the late summer drought in an attempt to maintain steady streamflow volumes and constant hydro-electric capability (PHASE X). Segregating water through impoundment reduces the risk of too much water overwhelming the turbine capacity in the spring and water being spilled unharnessed out of necessity. Given that Ontario is now a summer-peaking jurisdiction, releasing

Photograph 5: Mini Weather Station This shows only the enclosure, to which must be added an anemometer, communications equipment, solar cells, and other external devices as appropriate.

stored water later in the year can greatly enhance the ability maintain a level flow during the drought. Clearly, summer peaking attaches a greater importance to impoundment than otherwise might have been the case.

Thus, it is important to know what the intensity of the freshet might be before it begins so that the Impoundment Reservoirs can be depleted down to appropriate levels of any accumulated water reserves from the winter. If the prediction is a strong freshet, the Impoundment Reservoirs should be completely voided. However, if the freshet is predicted to be weak, it might be prudent to retain some of the water from the winter accumulation to supplement the lesser amount of streamflow anticipated to be diverted from the freshet. In both cases, the Impoundment Reservoirs should be fully recharged when the freshet declines and completely available to augment the declining streamflow during the seasonal late summer drought.

The question is, ‘How can the prediction be made between a heavy freshet and a light one over a watershed of some 110,000 km2?’ When apportioning the streamflow among the various dams in the pre-build analysis, a simplifying assumption is made that the same precipitation falls everywhere on the watershed. Once a system of dams is built, however, it is possible to see how true – or not – this assumption is by the direct measurement of the water discharges and levels at each respective powerhouse and headpond. While this provides much greater accuracy in the determination of the water resources in real time, regrettably what this does not do is allow any prediction on the strength of each impending freshet. Another approach is required.

What is needed is an assessment of the snow cover in the watershed and the degree-days of warming of that snow cover when it begins to melt. This can be approximated by sending out people with a metre stick to measure the depth of snow in a number of places on the one hand, while on the other measuring the number of hours of sunlight within the watershed at a few more places. This labour-intense, but a crude model might be developed from the data gathered, as has been done in the past. However, the Severn River is nearly 1000 km in length draining 110,000 km2 so this method is likely not very practical.

But in this 21st century we do not lack inexpensive technology. It is suggested that the solution might lie in the establishment of a series of mini weather and gauging stations laid out in a 10 km triangular grid pattern (each station is at the vertex of an equilateral triangle with all sides equal to

10 km). Each station could report via satellite on a regular schedule, possibly every six hours; all would be powered by solar cells with battery power storage good for several days or a week when fully charged. Data collection could include: • Precipitation • Temperature (minimum/maximum) • Relative humidity • Hours of direct sunlight • Wind speed (maximum/average) • Prevailing wind direction and duration • Barometric pressure Not all of these parameters are essential for determining the intensity of the freshet but the extra data can be easily gathered at little additional expense. It might be possible to publish the complete geolocated dataset on the Internet for analysis by anyone.

The mini weather and gauging stations are installed in a clearing so that no trees or the terrain will cast a shadow on any station and the precipitation can fall unattenuated onto each unit. Brush clearing maintenance might be reduced if units can be installed in rocky clearings where trees cannot grow. Access to the units can be via 4x4/snowmobile trails linked to the powerhouse access roadways. Note that the dams can be designed to include a bridge to provide access to both sides of the river making access to the stations via bush trails easier.

The cost of each mini weather and gauging station might be $1,500 and about 2,500 stations might be needed to cover the entire watershed. The cost is under $4-million. Possibly on a large order, a lower price could be negotiated. The cost of installation is not known, but could easily exceed the capital cost of the stations. The cost of monitoring the stations on an ongoing basis and maintaining them is unknown.

6.1.3 Loss of Riparian Habitat When dams are built, the headpond raises the elevation of the water surface above the original river elevation increasingly as the dam is approached from the upstream side. This occurs in all the scenarios stated at the end of Section 1.3 except the first. As the natural riverbank elevation drops beneath the level headpond surface when proceeding downstream, the zone between the water’s edge and dry land, or riparian habitat, will be progressively drowned starting a short

99 distance downstream from the tailrace of the upstream dam; the distance where the riparian habitat is flooded depends on the gradient of the topology.

The riparian habitat is the home for hydrophilic plants plus numerous small animals which are important to the overall ecological diversity. The loss of this habitat will mean the loss of the plants and animals that live in the areas that become inundated. While this is not good news, it is not a complete disaster either. Gradually, over a period of a few years, the riparian habitat will re- establish itself at the new water régime through the self-healing capability of nature.

Another issue with drowning the riparian habitat is the loss of fish spawning grounds since some will be too far beneath the surface. However, the lost habitat(s) can be rebuilt in a season or two at appropriate locations depending on the species of fish which is desired20. If there is a loss of fish population before new spawning beds can be constructed, the affected headponds can be restocked with appropriate numbers of fry or juvenile fish.

6.1.4 Forest Fire Protection The wildfires, which destroyed a good part of Fort McMurray, Alberta in 2016, and which are now ravaging British Columbia, not to mention Southern California, has made the issue of wildfire protection more prominent than before. Dams and powerhouses are structures constructed largely of concrete and thus not considered susceptible to damage by fire, but it is not the fire that is a concern: It is the smoke. Those working in the various powerhouses can seek refuge in them should it be necessary to do so. Given the remoteness of these facilities and the speed with which fire can spread, leaving the relative safety of a powerhouse can be foolish if not outright dangerous.

The issue is, how to fireproof a powerhouse? It is made of concrete and possibly brick, so it will not burn, but they all will have large windows for ventilation and this is the weak point. A raging fire will raise the level of infrared radiation to a considerable level where exposed glass can crack and even shatter. High winds associated with a fire can carry debris that might also shatter a window on impact. Furthermore, an improperly constructed roof can ignite from the endless cascade of burning embers carried aloft by the rising air currents above the fire and deposited upwards of two kilometres ahead of it.

Metal shutters that can be deployed remotely can protect the windows. This will protect the glass from any external abuse. A tar and gravel roof membrane over a concrete roof structure will keep

100 the roof both waterproof and safe from burning embers if the gravel is modestly thick above the tar. Also, the tar is self-healing during the warmer days of summer from and cracking that might be induced by shrinkage over the winter months.

It might be advisable to clear the bush from around the ends of the dam/powerhouse for a distance of perhaps 100 metres as a precaution. This would be done in consultation with the resident Native people.

Within each powerhouse is a safe room (office) where the air can be filtered and rendered safe to breathe regardless of the air quality in the generating hall. Regardless of what else is happening with the generating units and transmission lines, one generating unit can remain on-line to provide continuous in-house power once the powerhouse bus is isolated from the power transformers.

The power transformers are located on the north side of the building, or wherever they can have shade in the summer. If the wires leading from the bus to the transformers and from the transformers to the switchgear are contained inside conduits, the transformers, when mounted on a concrete pad, should not be affected by wildfire and infrared radiation, even when bombarded by live embers.

The switchgear installation will also be exposed but should not be susceptible to damage by fire, especially if the bush is clear-cut back from the ends of the powerhouse as suggested above.

It is recognised that the transmission lines are vulnerable. Passing power through a transmission line heats the wires, modestly under DC transmission but significantly with AC transmission. Caeteris paribus, the amount of heat released is in proportion to the square of the current (Ohm’s Law)21. It is suggested that the power being transmitted through DC lines in an active fire zone can continue, possibly at a reduced rate if necessary, allowing some generation to continue. Of course, if it is possible to reroute some of the power by another transmission line, that option should be investigated with the objective of keeping full generation uninterrupted. Given the clear- cut right-of-way and the height of the transmission towers, the wires stand a good chance of surviving most fires depending on the density of the immediate forest where the fire is burning. If transmission is lost, the possibility of diverting more power through alternative routes should already have been investigated and a contingency plan devised and deployed.

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The AC lines are most vulnerable, being closer to the ground and with narrower clear-cut rights- of-way. Repair crews have to be marshalled even as the fires are in progress with the expectation of multiple service disruptions, and dispatched to trouble points as soon as it is safe to do so. Generation operations should continue uninterrupted until forced to shut down by lost transmission; in most cases there will be no alternative transmission routes for the AC collector network and entire powerhouses might be shut down as a result. With advance planning and repair crews at the ready, the disruptions should be only a few hours to a day, depending on the severity of the incident.

When the fire danger is over, the transmission line will have to be inspected in the affected areas. Excessive sagging of the wires can be a sign that segments of the wires are stretched, which can create a smaller cross-section and cause greater line resistance; such segments might have to be replaced. Sagging wires might also come too close to wires below them or the ground. Starting with the high-voltage DC lines, the line insulators in the fire zone will have to be pressure washed using a helicopter with a high-pressure pumping unit on board; the lower-voltage AC lines can be done afterwards. The insulators will accumulate smoke particles, which are mostly carbon, presenting the risk of flash-over and ground fault, which could incapacitate the entire transmission line. The pressure washing can take place while the line is in operation. All powerhouses might have a designated helicopter pad and underground fuel tanks.

Regular prescribed burns of the forest floor litter can prevent devastating wild fires, usually performed in the spring once the snow has melted but while the ground is still wet. This is not a popular solution for those brought up heeding “Smokey the Bear”. The alternative is fires that rage out of control, extensive loss of property, life, and forests that take years to come back. A prescribed burn does not burn sufficiently hot to affect mature trees, but if allowed to accumulate, the debris feeding the blazing inferno of a wild fire allows everything to be incinerated.

6.1.5 Headpond Ice At the geographic latitudes where the Severn River resides, winter ice can accumulate to a thickness of a metre or more. This is not an issue for the high-head powerhouses since the inlet for their turbines is towards the bottom of the river at a point where the headpond depth is greatest, nor is it an issue for the weirs, whose discharge will be over the top of the dam or under a sluice gate. But it is a major issue for low-head dams.

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The low-head dams draw their water from the surface of the headpond. This works fine in the temperate months, but during freeze-up, ice on the surface will interfere with the water inlet. A metre of ice will make these powerhouses completely inoperative. However, at the bottom of the headponds, the water will be near 3.98o C and at its maximum density. The water must be convinced to come to the surface and enter the low-head turbines. Since this water is so much warmer (relatively) than the freezing water found at the surface, it will not suddenly freeze, cause the accumulation of ice about the edges of the inlet, or freeze on the low-lead turbine blades.

This issue can be solved quite conveniently and passively by installing a barrier from the surface almost to the bottom about two metres upstream from the dam and parallel to it, but open at the bottom by one metre or so. (The actual dimensions will depend on the head of the dam and the volume of water that might be moved under the full operation of all turbines simultaneously.) The barrier will force water from the bottom to move under it, then well up directly in front of the inlet for the generating unit which is in operation. Since the entire process is passive, there need be no “moving parts”. The zone between the barrier and the dam is called the forebay.

Another related issue must be addressed: How should ice be kept from forming over the forebay when the low-head generating units are not in operation? The turbines are not be scheduled to be operative overnight under normal circumstances; it is at night in the dead of winter that the coldest temperatures will occur – possible below -50o C at times. There are a combination of strategies, all inexpensive, that can be deployed to manage what could otherwise be a serious problem.

First, whenever low-head generating units are deployed during freezing ambient temperatures, they should be cycled on and off in a pattern that gives each generating unit the same amount of operating time and thus the same opportunity to keep relatively warm water inside the forebay so that it will not freeze. If the water in the forebay is brought up to a temperature approaching 3.5o C, say, it might take an hour or two before ice will begin to form at the edges and perhaps another hour or two for the entire forebay to be completely covered in a thin sheet of ice. The turbine can easily digest ice with a thickness of up to one centimetre, so we can call any surface that is clear of ice up to one centimetre of ice to be “operationally ice free”. The length of time over which the forebay remains “operationally ice free” might be four to six hours under the harshest of temperature and wind conditions; once a skin of ice forms, it acts as an insulating barrier and the transfer of heat declines with the thickness of the ice formation.

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Second, we can influence the heat transfer from the water to the air by eliminating the wind as an agent in the heat transfer process by covering the forebay with a heavy canvas shroud just before freeze-up. This shroud will remain in place until the warmer weather of spring dictates that it is prudent to remove it. The shroud accumulates some snow cover, which itself acts as insulation. In doing so, the application of the shroud with its insulating blanket of snow might be able to keep the forebay air temperature around 0o C, constantly warmed by the water welling up from below as the turbines operate, despite the harshness of the weather outside.

The third strategy is to mix the warmer water from the bottom of the forebay with the surface layer when the generating unit is stopped. This can be done by forcing compressed air though pipes and nozzles laid out in a grid pattern on the bottom of the forebay. A brief release of compressed air will cause turbulence in the forebay and cause the warmer, albeit denser, water at the bottom to rise in the resulting turbulence and mix with the colder water in the top layers, thereby thwarting the onset of freezing. The frequency of release and the duration of each release of compressed air has to be assessed by trial and error under actual operating conditions. The amount of energy consumed in this activity is expected to be minimal as it will only be needed when the generating units are stopped for extended periods, such as at night. Of course, at night the electricity involved to operate the compressor will be largely surplus energy, so the cost is minimal to zero.

The final strategy, as a last resort, is to generate surplus energy if that is the only way to get warmer water into the forebay through generation and forestall a complete freeze-up. It only will be necessary to operate each generating unit for five minutes to achieve this objective, which should have a positive effect good for many hours.

6.1.6 Climate Change and Air Pollution The latest evidence seems to point to a pause in Global Warming despite more and more carbon dioxide being emitted into the atmosphere. Since there does not appear to be an outright reversal in the overall temperature rise, this pause cannot be interpreted as the end of Global Warming. It is more likely just another quirk in the data meant to test the climate models. It also tests those who interpret these models as well as those who refute them. But whatever happens in this venue has little effect on the research at hand. There is a larger game at play.

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A spinning Earth causes the circulation of air around the globe to create three distinct cells, named (from the Equator to the North Pole) Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar22. Here, the circulation of air in the Ferrel Cell is of most interest. This cell draws air down from the upper atmosphere at a latitude of about 30o N next to the Hadley Cell and allows it to circulate northward along the surface of the earth until it meets the Polar Cell at about 60o N latitude, where it rises to the upper atmosphere and then returns south through the high atmosphere. This circulation pattern is important, as it is drawing air along the surface from a warmer zone to a cooler zone, from an area where the air, being warmer, has a greater propensity to absorb moisture to an area where the air will become cooler, and be less receptive to holding moisture. Thus, the Boreal forest, being at 50o to 60o north latitude, more or less, will benefit from increased precipitation as the air circulating in the Ferrel Cell moves north along the surface and cools. Under Climate Change with its pronounced weather extremes, the dryer places will be dryer and the wetter places will become wetter. More evaporation takes place as the dry, cool air in the Ferrel Cell descends and warms at the surface, and thus more moisture will be carried north. The net effect is to increase the precipitation in the Boreal forest by up to 10%23, depending on the amount of global temperature rise, as the north end of the Ferrel Cell cools and wrings out the moisture it absorbed in the south.

It is also recognised that greater temperatures will be present in the temperate zone leading to higher rates of evaporation. It is not possible to assess the net effect on the streamflow of the river networks, and while precipitation might well increase by 10%, the net streamflow during the summer might increase by a lesser amount due to evapotranspiration.

The simulation model includes a scalar factor that can alter the value of the input streamflow data by whatever value is desired to reflect the net change in precipitation. Most of the analysis is accomplished with no change to the data, but later in the work Climate Change analysis can be conducted with the streamflow progressively incremented in, say, one percent increments over a reasonable range. While greater precipitation will affect the streamflow and the hydro-electric output, no change is expected in the corresponding wind energy output. While the degree to which precipitation might increase is in doubt, it might be concluded that precipitation is unlikely to decline in absolute terms under Climate Change from the historical record of the immediate past century.

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While mitigating the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is a long-term objective of the research through its implementation, what is more important is the ability for its implementation to reduce air pollution from fossil fuel use and in doing so, improve the efficient and cost-effective use of fossil fuels. This can be accomplished through the substitution of hydro-electric energy for energy derived from coal and the substitution of surplus wind energy for energy derived from natural gas in the manufacture of certain energy-intensive products (see Section 5.1.7). The MIT paper3 cited earlier documents the deleterious effect that the combustion of coal and natural gas can have on the population at large. Substituting DHE for these fossil fuels will go a long way to demonstration the tangible worth of DHE outside of any competitive commercial setting through the sale of electricity. It will also open the door to applications in other geographic settings as of yet not contemplated, and possibly to one that has been considered before this research began in a formal manner: Siberia (see Section 8.2).

6.1.7 Oxygenation and Mixing of Stratified Headpond Layers In the natural river prior to development, it is known that the rapids and falls can impart dissolved oxygen into the water; aquatic life need oxygen for survival. With dams and the high-head powerhouses in particular, there will be less of this mechanical mixing of air and water. However, at the low-head sites, the low-head turbines will thrash the water about just about as good as any set of rapids, and the types of both sites are almost equal. One other factor must be considered: The huge surface area of the headponds – much larger than the surface of the original river system in flooding scenarios three and four – also provide an opportunity for a net increase of dissolved oxygen in the headponds.

It is known that land-locked lakes with little possibility of oxygenated water entering them can still support aquatic life, and the dissolved oxygen from the air likely plays a part in this.

It is not possible to resolve this issue in this thesis, but rather mention the issue so that it can be considered at a more appropriate time.

There is also the issue of stratified thermal layers in the headponds. This is most important during the summer months when the upper layers tend to become warmer and the fish huddle in the lowest depths where the water is coldest. Both high-head and low-head sites will be drawing water from the bottom – the coldest water – and expelling it through the tailrace into the top and warmest layer

107 of the headpond below. Pumped storage will be taking water from the top layer of the headpond below and forcing it into the bottom of the headpond above. In both cases there is a mixing of warm and cold water that might not be hospitable to the aquatic life in the immediate vicinity.

Again, it is not possible to resolve such issues, if in fact they are a problem. In either case, the headponds are large and are not going to completely heat up. But these things might have to be examined just the same.

6.2 Social Issues 6.2.0 Background After more than four centuries of what might be charitably called unpleasant relations, there is a complete role reversal in today’s interaction with First Nation people. There is now a degree of mutual respect slowly developing. Certainly respect was lacking in the past interaction up until just a few decades ago when attitudes began to shift. Put it this way: You have to both admire and respect a people who have survived for millennia in a land that is so “wild and savage”24. Most people from the south could not survive a week in this environment, and that is in the summertime; in the depths of winter, survival is likely measured in hours.

Three new communities eventually are to be created in the watershed to house those managing and operating the infrastructure. In the next chapter, it is revealed that this might total 20,000 individuals. The establishment of these communities and the interaction with the nearby First Nations is discussed.

6.2.1 Indigenous Issues While it is possible for the research to take place in world of virtual isolation, disconnected from the watershed and rivers which are under analysis, there are real people living real lives who can be directly affected by the research results. Accordingly, once initial contact is made and assuming a positive response, meetings with the leadership of the First Nations who live in the watershed are to be held on a regular basis. This might be expanded into “town hall” type meetings at an appropriate point to address questions and concerns that the Native population at large might have.

It is recognised that these meetings might be all for naught were nothing to come of the research, possibly raising false hopes amongst the local residents in the process. This outcome, filled with

108 disappointment for some as it could be, is decidedly better than surprising everyone with a fait accompli which will be grudgingly accepted by a few at best and more likely actively rejected by many. People, no matter who they are, must have a meaningful input into plans that will affect their lives.

This project reaches out into many areas that will shape the lives in these isolated communities. With a road to the south, they will no longer be isolated; this immediately brings about lower food costs and better access to food all year round. But roads always go in two directions. The influx of construction workers over an extended period of time, and the people who will remain to operate the system, results in three new communities being founded (or the expansion of existing Native communities depending on how the Native leadership wants to proceed). The population likely will triple over what the present number is (estimated at 2,500 people). This brings better schools, medical facilities, in fact better everything since there will be the numbers to economically support and justify improved facilities.

Education is particularly important if Native children are to become the engineers and leaders of the hydro-electric system of tomorrow. The schools must provide local education to Grade 12 and provide technical training for those who wish it. Emphasis must be placed on STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), admittedly foreign concepts to their culture. For those who are not inclined to master STEM subjects, there will be the arts subjects available as well.

Gaining mastery over any subject requires one concept that native children have sadly missed: they must attend school with a high degree of regularly. At present, some attendance records are abysmal, barely making the 50% mark. This is not a child problem; it is a parent problem – parents need to be educated too. School must be a place where children want to be, not a place to be avoided. In other words, it must be fun, and that goes for all ages. There is a way to solve this issue: Make school enjoyable while getting an excellent education too.

The solution? Engage students with age-appropriate sports and use this as the carrot to encourage studying. Membership on teams requires maintaining a certain academic standard. Hire excellent coaches to guide the teams and help them to reach sports dominance as they achieve academic excellence. Give them pride in themselves and hope for the future. Let every single one of them see a better future.

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There is more to this, things that might not come to mind in the comfortable South. Provide breakfast and lunch at the school for those who must come from a distance to attend. Actually, provide this for everyone who wants it. Put two teachers in the classrooms, one to teach and one to provide assistance to those who are at risk of falling behind. No child should be held back or allowed to fail; these children are just as intelligent as all others in the Province, but some need help. There can be criticism of these two suggestions because of cost. We already know the cost of failure – drugs, despair, suicide, broken lives and relationships, and so on. Let us take all the money that we supposedly “saved” over the past century and really educate these people.

The school year should go all year round with four two-week breaks between terms, plus the usual statutory holidays. This is ten weeks of instruction, one week of exams, and a two-week break. This avoids the loss of memory that can occur over a nine- to eleven-week summer vacation and the need for a week or two taken for review every September – over 12 years of schooling that is up to half a year of lost time.

Up to now, teachers in the North have received a modest rate of pay. They go north because there are few jobs available in the South and they can get experience. Some do not make it past Thanksgiving – this has to change. Could it be made into a prestigious appointment? The budget for the DHE development will be in the billions, but it will take full disclosure and a lot of arm- twisting before any of that money could be used to educate Native youth. What might work is the establishment of an education charity, but that is for another day.

Having said all of the above, how can Native culture survive? Is the only solution to have some form of cultural apartheid so that every night the Native people, adults and children, retreat to their respective reserves to be exclusively among their own people? In a sense, this is the present situation, and if this is what each First Nation decides to do, it is their choice to make. There is no right or wrong choice here, just different options and varying shades of grey. Whatever decision is made, the First Nations must be supported in the decision they make to the fullest extent possible.

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6.2.2 New Communities In planning for the construction and operation of the DHE infrastructure, there is a need for a place where everyone can live. In a one-off construction project, this is easy to solve – just bring in sufficient trailer homes housing perhaps eight or a dozen workers each for the couple of years that the project is alive, and then disband it. With DHE infrastructure, the planning horizon is closer to 25 years, and permanent accommodation not only is more sensible but less expensive too. Having a permanent structure will allow the families of construction workers to live together over the life of the project, and when they are done, their home can be used for the people who come after them to manage and operate the facilities.

The three communities are tentatively situated at: • Sandy Lake (3,000 employees) • Bearskin Lake (8,000 employees) • Fort Severn (5,000 employees) While there is an estimate of 20,000 employees, the above only accounts for 16,000 of them. First, 2,000 are intended to be operating the chemical plants and the plant manufacturing turbines; these will be located south and outside the watershed. Second, the balance of 2,000 are thought to be First Nations workers living on reserve and others who might prefer to build their own home in the wilderness near these communities.

Each of these communities has a special purpose in the development. The Sandy Lake community will be the first constructed and will house all of the construction workers at the start; buses will transport them to and from the worksites. An area will be negotiated with the First Nation on whose traditional lands the community will reside; this First Nation will be paid a form of rent for the land. A network of streets will be laid out and services (water, sewer, electricity) will be planned. All of this will be constructed to accommodate the number of construction workers expected, although some trailers might also be used until all the permanent facilities are ready.

Construction of other facilities such as water and sewage treatment plants, fire hall, police station, and so on will also take place concurrently, as will other commercial buildings and private residences. Lots will be sold including a development fee to defray the cost of building out the infrastructure. (It might be possible to establish a form of land transfer tax which is pooled and

111 divided among the First Nations according to a formula of their choosing; this will apply to all properties in the watershed.)

Near the Sandy Lake community at one of the powerhouses, a central monitoring and control facility is to be constructed. This could be a separate building or it might be additional storeys placed on top of a powerhouse (preferred for security reasons). This will be the first control room design and it will be connected by satellite communications with all of the other powerhouses built until the second control room is built.

The second community is near Bearskin Lake. This is central to the entire watershed and is the largest community. It also has the second control room built in a revised design based on what has been learned with operating the first control room; this second control room becomes the main control room. The first control room is then renovated to be similar to the first. Its purpose is then as a training and backup facility should the main control room become inoperative.

The third community is near Fort Severn. It will also have a control room, mainly for monitoring the wind turbine farm on Hudson Bay. All of the maintenance of the wind turbines is handled from this location. Manufacturing the wind turbine blades eventually will be done here.

As the construction work proceeds down the watershed, the town sites will be developed in turn. They will first be occupied by the construction workers, and when they have moved on, the residences will be occupied permanently by the employees who will be operating the DHE facilities. In addition, there will be all sorts of other people coming into these communities to operate private businesses, such as grocery stores, or work for the municipality or the school board.

The number of people stated for each community in the table above are only employees, but many will have families so the total number could easily be double the stated amount when children are included. Then again, when all of the other people who are needed to make a community work are also considered, those numbers could jump by another 50% to roughly 12,000, 24,000, and 15,000 respectively. When all others necessary to make a community function are added into the total, including their families, this would add a considerable number of people – perhaps 80,000 – to an area of Ontario that at present is extremely underpopulated. These numbers stress why relations with the First Nations people must always be harmonious and conducted with respect.

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An alternative to having so many people living within the watershed would be to have only essential personnel live there. This would leave only maintenance and operational employees. This might reduce the numbers by half and be more acceptable to the First Nations people. However, with smaller populations, the level of services in the three communities will likely be scaled back as well – with 80,000 people, you get a hospital, but with only a few thousand, probably not.

Were the number of personnel reduced in the watershed, they would be located in existing municipalities farther south but still within the District of Kenora. This would facilitate travel to the various dam and powerhouse sites should such be necessary.

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Chapter 7 Issues Facing Implementation

7.0 Background

Should it be built, this is a huge undertaking and no doubt fraught with many difficulties. It has taken over three decades since the low-head turbine was devised to bring this to a point where the major technical issues have been overcome, in theory. It might take another half decade of research to determine if all the components, which sound fine in theory, really can work together and deliver the power and energy that can make this concept financially feasible and a business reality. But despite the technical issues being largely overcome, there are non-technical issues also to be considered on this long and winding road.

Financing will be the toughest job of all. This is not a small project, but many large projects strung together one after the other in what might seem to be an endless cascade of construction. And this is just one watershed! There are billions of dollars to be raised and spent wisely. The most vulnerable part is between raising the first tranche of funds and the first power sales – this could take five years if not more – in a world of impatient investors. The question of where to start – largest sites where more power can be generated – or smaller sites – where less capital is needed and power can be produced sooner – needs to be resolved. It is the transmission line which will be on the critical path right from the start since the entire line must be complete before any power can flow to customers.

7.1 Consent

The ability to proceed relies on the First Nation residents of the watersheds of interest to agree to such developments. This is a slow process and deliberately so. It is not like saying, “We will dig a hole in the ground and extract something that you never knew was there and fill the hole back in and then afterwards you will never know we ever came,” or (out west) “We will come a put a long straw into the ground and suck out a black liquid that you never knew was there and then cap the hole and afterwards you will never know that we ever came.” Those days, if they ever existed, are gone. We now live in an era where the Native peoples must be looked upon as partners, and rightly

114 so, to share in the wealth that can be created from the resources which abound on and in their traditional lands. It cannot and should not be viewed in any other way.

The government approvals and financing of this development will have issues too. Since this development falls into the category of “never been done before”, having First Nations support will be crucial. Governments have had ample time to build roads, improve education and health care, and provide a myriad of other things that would make life easier for these residents of the province and country, including making access available to decent employment. It would be difficult for governments to say “no” without being prepared to get on with the job of building the roads and all of the other things which development can bring. Native people are politically aware now as they have never been before. It is remarkable that as this thesis is being written the Ontario government is finally willing to allow roads to the “Ring of Fire” mining area after a decade of waiting. However, these roads yield no advantage for any development in the Severn River Watershed.

7.2 Corporate Structure

It is unrealistic for the local First Nations in any watershed to harbour ideas of outright ownership of the development proposed in this thesis. It takes tens of billions of dollars per watershed to retain ownership and if any Native government had this amount of money in the bank, their people would not be living under the conditions in which they find themselves today. They will have to rely on raising considerable capital from others and once they go this route, ownership follows the money invested. However, retaining a meaningful degree of control with some ownership is possible. Control is likely more important in the long run as it comes with a large say in how development proceeds; this document promotes this view.

There are three elements to organising a major development as proposed herein: the managers of the area (the First Nations, as custodians of the land and rivers), the financier (to raise the necessary funding), and the developer (to present a comprehensive and workable plan of action for constructing the infrastructure). No agreement can be formed without each being present to provide their views; accordingly, each will have a one-third control position. For any idea to proceed, it technically needs the support of two out of the three entities at the table. However, in a closely-held operation, the only way to maintain harmony is to ensure that each concept which receives agreement is by the unanimous consensus of all three groups after serious but amicable

115 discussion. If there is no consensus, an initiative fails. Consensus is a Native tradition, and we can all learn by it.

Majority ownership will reside with the many individuals who purchase common shares in the business. Thus, what is needed is an operating corporation that has a dual-class share structure, with one class (call it Class A) distributed to the public with one vote per share and where the ownership resides, and a second class (call it Class B) held by the founding control group with multiple votes per share, which allows them to exert control. While both classes of shares will have equity in the business, the number of votes that accrue to the founders will be much greater, thus allowing them to exercise control through appointments to the Board of Directors.

Such a situation has to be handled with some delicacy. Since the control group is able to make changes almost at will through the Board of Directors, the shareholder agreement covering both classes of shares must be drafted carefully to protect the Class A shareholders. It must be an equitable arrangement. This business is a utility, and shareholders will benefit from both capital appreciation in their shares and a healthy dividend. Once the first powerhouses and transmission line are completed, allowing power to be sold and revenues to come in, the early investors will see the share price rise and dividends paid. One necessary restriction is on dividends: Dividends on Class B shares must never exceed Dividends on Class A shares on a per share basis, for example.

To retain control, how many votes per share will be sufficient? For example, the Severn River has a projected 74 dams: 73 with powerhouses plus one weir. It might cost $80-billion to fully develop this system with an estimated 45,000 MW of power plus another 15,000 MW of wind power on Hudson Bay, including all the roads and other appurtenances which are required (see Section 7.4.11). Perhaps half of this cost will be needed in share equity; funds needed beyond that can be internally raised and debt can be raised to bridge any remaining gap. At some point the project becomes self financing and requires no additional capital to continue constructing the development to completion. (This will have to be confirmed through cash flow modelling which is beyond the scope of this thesis.)

Let us assume that $42-billion in equity will be sufficient and that this equity is raised at $10 per share on average. Therefore, up to 4.2-billion Class A shares might be issued with 4.2-billion votes. Thus, the Class B shares would also need to possess 4.2-billion votes in aggregate to retain control. To keep this simple, were each Class B share to have 1,000 votes, then 4.2-million Class

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B shares would have to be issued, or 1.4-million divided equally to each of the founding entities. Of course, there are other possibilities so this is just one example.

However, to jumpstart the ability to raise financing, it might be prudent to seek the use of a shell company as the original operating company with an existing stock exchange listing and start from there. (A shell company is a dormant company not conducting an active business.) The initial capital from the three partners might have to be about $180,000, or $60,000 each, to acquire the shell company. Rather than have each of the founding partners own the shares directly, this might be done through creating a holding company to invest in the public listed company. Each partner would invest their $60,000 into the holding company and receive, say, 6,000 shares each at $10 per share; this gives each a one-third interest in the holding company and one-third of the control of the operating company. The holding company pays for the listed company and reorganises its capital structure so that there would be two classes of shares with the holding company owning 4.2-million shares, each with 1000 votes. The other class would have 4.2-billion shares available for issue to the public with one vote each. Once reorganised in this or a similar manner, it will be just a matter of issuing a prospectus under the auspices of the financial partner, raising the desired capital, and getting started with the business.

It is recognised that the Native people might want to get their shares in the business for “free”. This is not a hill on which to die – the amount of money is miniscule. The money could be loaned to them repayable from the first dividends received, or they might possibly be able to get the funds from the federal government since the government is promoting Native business partnerships. Failing that, they get the shares gratis. How the shares are distributed among the various First Nation communities is up to them.

7.3 Government Approvals No development can start without obtaining numerous government approvals in Ontario, including for the proposed route of the access roads, the dam sites, and the transmission right-of-ways to carry the electricity out. There is also approval for the wind farms on Hudson Bay required from the Territory of Nunavut. Throughout all of the various approval processes, the First Nations are kept informed and are expected to attend any approval hearings to voice their concerns or consent. Note that not all of the approvals are sought within the watersheds being developed since the roads

117 and transmission rights-of-way will go beyond the watershed boundaries and concern other First Nations not directly involved with the hydro-electric development.

The Ontario Energy Board is involved with setting the maximum rates at which electricity is sold to the First Nation communities and other entities within Ontario. However, in all likelihood the maximum rate is seldom, if ever, charged in practice to the First Nation communities. Electricity is intended to be sold at bulk rates to the Native communities and these communities then will use their existing distribution system to provide electricity to individual residences and businesses. The rate negotiated with them is expected to be below what the OMB awards. Collection for the bulk power is by means of offset against other payments due to the respective First Nation governments. The export prices for electricity are beyond the reach of the OEB.

7.4 Project Capital Cost 7.4.01 Background Only a superficial treatment of the expected capital cost is advanced at this writing. A much more detailed examination of the cost can be made as part of the research when there is time to go into the level of detail that is necessary. However, there are two major cost savings that are covered in this chapter: the concepts of co-operative contracting and continuous construction. In combination, both are intended to reduce the cost of construction through long term contracts for materials and guaranteed work for labour with bonuses for meeting construction milestones with quality work on time; the term can be about 25 years (the estimated timeline for completely developing the entire watershed). The savings are expected to be 40% of the one-off cost of building each dam an individual project.

The capital cost and revenues received will be affected by the sequence in which the dams and powerhouses are built. There are two views on this: Start with the larger dams and powerhouses first since they will yield the greater revenue or start with the smaller sites first since they can be built faster and yield revenue quicker. The answer to this could only be provided through extensive financial and construction modelling.

In the following sections, this thesis has taken the side of building small to large for the simple reason that the smaller sites will be reached first by the access road plus the initial transmission line will be shorter. In making this choice, more cash will be preserved for constructing the initial

118 dams and powerhouses and the sale of electricity will come sooner, albeit with a lower revenue stream than if the larger sites were built. In the future and with better analysis, it might be shown that this choice is faulty but it seems plausible with the limited data available.

7.4.02 Cooperative Contracting Given the magnitude of the work at hand, its repetitiveness, and the disruptiveness that labour issues can cause to otherwise tight schedules, a cooperative contracting approach is suggested. The work is organised under General Contractors who engages sub-contractors to carry out the work in specialised trades. The General Contractors have to vouch for the qualifications of the sub-trades and should know them well from previous engagements. While the initial tenders are evaluated in a competitive environment, once these tenders are ranked and a selection is made, the competition aspect changes to suit a different purpose. The cooperative part refers to the sub trades getting their part of the work done correctly and efficiently with no labour strife so that all will earn the bonus being offered; if one performs poorly, all can suffer with a lower bonus payout, or in a worst case receive no bonus at all.

There is nothing to gain from not cooperating – the stakes are just too high. One trade is followed by the next, and if shoddy work is found, it must be reported promptly to the supervising engineer since otherwise everyone’s bonus is at risk. Corrections need to be made quickly, retraining implemented as required, and so on before a serious quality issue develops. Should a serious amount of work have to be repeated, all will lose. This is one reason why starting with the smaller sites high in the watershed is preferred: The dams are smaller and the stakes are less serious as everyone learns on the job how the work is to proceed. Typically, each subsequent dam is a little larger and more complex, and the skills of the workforce can grow and be that much better matched to the more complicated tasks at hand at each new site.

Each specialised trade is assigned to the worksite in turn; when finished, the next trade moves in. There might be some overlap where it makes sense or there might be a scheduled gap, especially when concrete must cure. No single team does all the work; each team specialises in a particular set of tasks and with practice gets better and more efficient at what they do. At the end of 74 dams, they might be able to do their work in their sleep.

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There is competition in order to stay in the game, but the sub-trades all must be co operative to get their work done correctly and completed in a timely manner for all to benefit from more work in the future; with 74 dams and 73 powerhouses to construct, it is quite clear that there can be much more work to be had downstream and in the adjacent watersheds. The strongest discipline is to end up with no work because of inefficiency when compared with the other workforce teams.

This has to be tempered with work inspections to ensure that the work is in fact being done correctly. But inspections also are required to assess when unexpected difficulties arise which cost significantly more in material and labour to overcome than originally estimated and agreed. Such variances do not necessarily mean a case of a “low-ball’ estimate; drawings might be incomplete or misleading, for example. One reason for starting at the top of the watershed is that this is where the smaller dams will be, where the difficulties can be solved without jeopardising the entire project, and where the workforce can be trained with no serious long-term adverse consequences for the schedule, as alluded earlier.

7.4.03 Contractor Bidding To begin, General Contractors are asked to submit sealed tenders on the first four dams of each of the three major rivers in the Severn Watershed (Severn, Fawn, and Sachigo), based on material and labour costs only, including unit prices. Given the extent of the work, it might be necessary to keep the tender period open for a reasonable period. The dams are all similar so this is not expected to be an onerous request. (It is uncertain if a geological report will be needed for all 12 sites, but possibly for the first two on each river branch at a minimum; the usual caveats regarding unknown geology can accompany quotes for the other sites.) A fixed profit margin of, say, 15%, will be added to the tenders plus a bonus margin based on meeting certain criteria during construction, such as meeting the agreed construction schedule. Each General contractor is in competition with all the others; they have to be reasonable about their estimates and the schedule they claim they can meet or they won’t get the work. However, if they bid too low and it is an anomaly in comparison with all other bids received, they still might not get they work since the lowest bid(s) might not necessarily be accepted.

The best bidder is allowed to select the river section on which they wish to work; the second-best bidder is allowed to select between the two remaining sections; the third-best will have to accept the section that remains or drop out. Human nature being what it is, the first most likely selects

120 the section with the greatest work content and the second with the second most work content; the profit that can be earned follows accordingly. All start on their respective segments at roughly the same time; at all times, the Severn segment is on the critical path and the other segments must merge with its schedule when the confluence points are reached.

When the work on two segments reaches a confluence, such as the Severn and Sachigo, there will be a performance review of both General Contractors. It can be remarkable if both contractors have performed with perfection so it is not necessary to consider that happy state of affairs. Inevitably, one or the other might have slipped up here and there, or more to the point some of their sub-trades might have performed below par on occasion, which allows a distinction to be drawn between them. One General Contractor will be given approval to continue and the other, along with its sub-trades, will be out. Since one General Contractor will have been responsible for more construction than the other, and therefore have more “risk exposure” to adverse events, the method by which they are judged is to take this into account.

At this point, it is possible to advance some of the criteria on which the General Contractors might be judged (not in order of importance): • Timeliness of payments to sub-trades when the General Contractors themselves have been paid on time. • Adherence to the project schedule. • Timely communication of adverse incidents affecting the schedule. • Lost time injuries on the job and other safety issues. • Number of disputes with sub-contractors. • Quality of work. • Co-operation with other contractors. A simple point system might be devised, ranking each category out of, say, ten; the higher score earned allows the General Contractor and its sub-trades to continue working after the confluence.

7.4.04 Alternative Consideration Training a workforce and having it gain the experience necessary to construct the desired infrastructure with quality workmanship involves an investment that can be lost when that workforce is disbanded. Unless the performance of the second General Contractor has been egregious, or if there is a known personality conflict between the two contractors, it is suggested

121 that the two General Contractors and their sub-trades merge after the confluence. The General Contractor who was ranked first is in charge, with the second-ranked General Contractor designated as second in command. It is up to them to find a workable arrangement between themselves, including a division of the profit earned thereafter, provided that the lines of command and responsibilities are clear to all. In merging their sub-trades, they can keep all of them or weed out the weaker performers from both camps as they see fit. As the work proceeds downstream, the dams are getting larger, and right after the confluence of two segments, the river is immediately much larger. Unnecessarily disbanding skilled workers is in no one’s interest.

A similar situation occurs at the confluence of the Severn and Fawn Rivers.

7.4.05 Profit Margin and Bonus As the work progresses and the workforce gains in experience, the efficiency and productivity should pick up so that noticeable cost savings can be achieved. The overall margin that can be earned – say, 15% plus performance bonus – is quite generous in this industry and amounts to billions of dollars over the entire project. It can only be offered because the expected efficiency of the workforce can save billions of dollars more. Constructing such a network of dams as single one-off projects is prohibitively expensive, impossible to justify financially, and tends towards contentious negotiations rather than co-operation as each General Contractor and sub-trade fights for everything they can get when lacking the comfort of continuing work lasting decades. One only need look at the cost of the Muskrat Falls Dam in Labrador and Newfoundland, which is headed towards a multi-billion dollar 100% cost overrun25 in just six short years.

The régime of co-operative contracting is intended to eliminate, or at least reduce to a minimum, the myriad of minor disputes that can happen in a confrontational and adversarial environment where everyone is trying to get the best they can for themselves. Rather, there is a team effort expected here. If one sub-trade acts out of line, it will affect the economic future of all the sub- trades and that of the General Contractor (especially everyone’s bonus) – peer pressure will be brought to bear. Alternatively, if the sub-trade has a legitimate grievance with the General Contractor, the other sub-trades can see that they must all hang together if they do not want to hang separately over the same or a similar issue. These people must all have worked together before (it is a stipulation of their bid), so irrational behaviour is not expected, especially by the General Contractor. Profit, or the lack of it, can be a strong motivator. Losing out on future work can be

122 just as powerful an incentive for resolving issues quickly and amicably without jeopardising the schedule and the work at hand. Nevertheless, some dispute resolution mechanism might be necessary to impartially resolve issues quickly so that the work can continue uninterrupted should the General Contractor not be able to come to agreement with a particular sub-trade.

The foregoing is not meant to provide a shortcut past the legal requirements of contract work. There has to be proper legal formalities regarding payments under the Construction Lien Act and so forth, and the proper thesiswork has to be filed to support payment claims and timelines. In fact, timeliness of payment is one of the major points that cause friction between general contractors and sub-trades, usually because of underfinancing. Issuing certificates for milestone completions and initiating prompt progress payment to the General Contractor is always important.

This points to the financing of the project as a whole requiring solid financing right from the start. The four to five year period between when funds are first raised and when electricity is first sold is the most vulnerable for all involved. Everyone must be paid on time, without exception, as this makes for more harmonious relations and a co-operative attitude regardless of whatever adversity the project is facing. A certain momentum can build and it must not be allowed to dissipate. In this regard, the initial financing is critical as it must provide sufficient liquidity over this period.

Nevertheless, the bonus is at risk if the schedule is not maintained. This will be negotiated at the start before the contract is let so that all understand the terms. Deductions from the bonus have to be applied judiciously depending on if the issue is in the control of the general contractor, the sub- trade, or some other unrelated party. Fairness must not only be exercised, but it must also be seen to be exercised, and exercised impartially.

7.4.06 Sub-Trade Scheduling Constructing a dam and powerhouse is too complex an endeavour to expect each worker to handle all the required skills with proficiency. Accordingly, each sub-trade will possess skills or be trained in a particular narrow aspect of the work. However, this presents a problem since the point at which each skill is needed might only be present for a few weeks or months in a construction schedule that can stretch over years. Given the remoteness of the sites, it is not practical to have workers shuttling back and forth from their home base hundreds of kilometres distant to the work site. The desire is to provide years of steady, year round employment; the objective is to greatly

123 reduce the overall cost of construction labour through providing the workforce with a “no-layoff” guarantee during the term of the construction (with the exception of the decision points at the confluences). Having days of rest is not the issue; having no work for weeks is to be avoided.

This problem can be solved through working on several damsites simultaneously and progressively through judiciously scheduling the trades and the number of each trade present at each site. In such a plan, maintaining the master schedule is paramount, since a delay in one area can mean a cascading layoff of sub-trades that immediately follow in the schedule. The benefit of such a scheduling process, rigorously applied, is a faster completion of each dam and powerhouse.

This process begins with survey crews staking out the sites of the dams in sequence, starting at the highest site by elevation on each branch of the river network. The surveyors are followed with a suitable time lag (one month?) by geologists, who take core samples under where the dam foundations are to be. This work should be undertaken a full year before any construction is scheduled to start, and perhaps longer if the initial bidding process must be accommodated. There is a risk that the theoretically optimum site of one or more dams through the simulation planning process might be sub-optimal when it comes to geology, with a better nearby site suggested by the geologists. This might need to be resimulated, depending on the distance the dam is shifted. Should the simulation suggest another location as being better than that recommended by the geologists, there must be time to investigate this third alternative before construction begins.

After the geology is settled, the foundations are laid, the forms for the dam walls are constructed, the re-bar is installed, the concrete is poured, the forms are removed, the slip forms for the powerhouse are constructed, the re-bar for the first stage of the powerhouse walls is installed, the concrete is poured, the forms slide up, and so on … This provides an example of how the work can be divided into smaller tasks, each being performed by a specialist crew.

7.4.07 Road Construction The trunk road and transmission line south of the Severn River Watershed are the only items that lie outside the watershed. To proceed, they need to have permission of the local First Nations in those specific areas. These negotiations are assumed to have been concluded before financing is obtained. Informal talks might be conducted during the research, identifying which First Nations might be involved and their position on having a transmission line pass over their land.

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Roads need five things to be in place, more or less in this order: • A least-cost route • Permission of affected First Nations • Financing • An environmental assessment based on the least-cost route • Final construction permits The least-cost route is determined as part of the research project. Permission is explained above. Financing refers to the initial tranche of financing for the project; this is necessary to pay for the environmental assessment, the partial construction of the trunk road and secondary roads, the construction of the initial dams, and the transmission line to the US border. A discussion on financing is covered in a separate section. The final construction permit will be issued by the government when all conditions outlined are met.

Obtaining financing is the official start of the project; nothing can happen without money to pay for what needs to be done. After obtaining the initial financing, the very first thing to commission is the environmental assessment of the intended route for the road. This report does not dwell on environmental issues, but in setting the parameters for the least-cost road, the Geographic Analysts can research the required buffers to keep the route away from encroaching on lakes, wetlands, Native cultural sites, and other sensitive environmental features. This should reduce the opportunity for conflict between the selected route and environmental concerns when the environmental assessment is performed. The environmental assessment is expected to take about one year (and might take up to two years) for the first stage of road construction – about 400 km of trunk road and 400 km of secondary access road to link the first six damsites on each river branch. If the assessment takes longer than one year, it might be divided into two parts, with the trunk road assessed first and the secondary roads afterwards. This way, construction on the trunk road could begin and little time is lost in the overall project schedule.

As soon as the environmental assessment is completed and approved, the final route can be surveyed while awaiting the final construction permit, which at this point should be a formality. With the permit in hand, crews can be sent forthwith to clear the bush from the right-of-way. The surveying and then bush clearance can begin simultaneously from both ends of the main trunk road, and road construction can follow immediately after that. Timber of commercial value can be set aside for sale to sawmills; the balance of the cut bush (slash) can be burned when it is safe

125 to do so (in winter). In anticipation, heavy equipment needed at the north end can be moved into position over ice roads the season before.

The main trunk road is expected to start from the end of Highway 125 just north of Red Lake and proceed north from there. The north end of the road likely will start near Sandy Lake and proceed south from there; however, this is conjecture and requires the least cost road analysis for verification. The environment assessment of the trunk road right-of-way and subsequent construction are critical path items right from the start, given the time that the environment assessment and construction of the road will take to complete.

It is possible to begin construction of the foundations of the first few dams on the Severn River without road access, but all people and materials will have to be brought in as close as possible to the damsites over ice roads and then flown in over the remaining distance, likely by helicopter and/or float plane – an expensive proposition, to be sure. However, given that the initial dams are small, the number of people involved are few, and the quantity of equipment and material is limited, this should be a manageable expense. This is compared to the setback of the construction schedule for one more season were nothing to start until the main trunk road were finished and the three secondary roads to the headwaters of each of the three river branches.

Only the Severn River needs to have a head start in its construction schedule in the manner described immediately above. There are seven more dams along the Severn River before its confluence with the Sachigo River and five more before its confluence with the Fawn River. While the Severn and Sachigo Rivers merge first, the completion of the secondary access roads will need to take place in this order: • Severn River • Fawn River • Sachigo River The start of dam construction on each of these rivers also is to be scheduled in this order, based on the work content involved. Work on both branches that merge at each confluence should be completed more or less at the same time without one work team waiting on the other. It is likely that work on the Fawn River could start one year after work on the Severn begins and work on the Sachigo River could start with a delay of two years; alternatively, the work could start sooner with smaller work crews. In this way, all the necessary roads could be completed in a timely manner.

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7.4.08 Transmission Corridor The transmission corridor also requires its least cost route to be established by the Geographic Analysts; it also needs permission from the First Nations over whose lands the line are constructed and an environmental assessment before any physical work can begin. The environmental assessment will be commissioned once the route is known and the assessment of the initial roads has been completed. The work to clear-cut the transmission right-of-way begins as soon as the environmental assessment has been approved; constructing the access roads begins once the access roads to the initial dams are completed. The least cost transmission route is set in the research by the Geographic Analysts and is more or less straight south to the United States border. The brush clearing might be allocated to the various First Nations affected by the route; commercial grade logs will be set aside for sale. Most of this work is expected to take place during the winter when snowmobiles can be used for access, the slash can be burned safely, and work is in short supply by the local Native communities.

At this point, the transmission right-of-way corridor is clear-cut and possesses a very rudimentary access road (most likely a dirt trail traversable only by ATVs in summer and snowmobiles in winter). The road crews will then be assigned to improve this access road along the corridor plus lateral roadways to the trunk road, possibly every 50 kilometres or so. The laterals reduce the stem time for transmission line construction crews accessing their work areas. Later, these same lateral roadways will allow repair crews to quickly access the transmission line to effect repairs as required. The roads are fully inspected and maintained including snow ploughing even though they are lightly travelled. Completing the transmission road network is a two-year assignment.

After that mission is accomplished, the road crews can go back and construct the short links to the First Nations communities that the trunk road passes nearby; this takes at most six months to complete. However, this might be modestly deferred should access road construction be needed to keep up with the pace of dam construction per the next paragraph. If delayed, additional equipment and crews might be hired to get this job completed expeditiously so that the Native people are not kept waiting.

Thereafter, road construction can proceed down each of the three main branches of the Severn Watershed eventually reaching Fort Severn after a further five years. The final roadwork will be

127 to finish the transmission access road and access laterals all the way to Fort Severn, which might take a further three years.

In summary, road construction in all its facets will be a ten year endeavour for the completion of a basic road system. A smaller crew improving the initial road though widening it in places, constructing better grades and sight lines, and fixing drainage issues, might spend a further ten years. It is entirely possible that each summer road construction will continue unabated as poor corners are eased, weak roadbed stretches are strengthened, and so on.

These roads are intended to be all-weather roads but will be restricted to half-loads during the spring. Winter maintenance consists of regular snow ploughing; summer maintenance consists of gravel application as needed, grading, and ditching.

Below is a table outlining a possible timeline for the construction of the required road segments. The community of Peawanuk is in the Winisk River Watershed in a permafrost zone; there are many river crossings to make to reach this location, lengthening the construction time.

ROADWAY TIMELINE* Distance Construction Time

Initial trunk road 300 km 24 months Initial secondary roadways 300 km 24 months Initial transmission access roadway 400 km 24 months Links to First Nations not in watershed 40 km 6 months Trunk road, final portion 400 km 48 months Secondary roads, final portion 500 km 48 months Transmission access, final portion 300 km 18 months Links to First Nations within watershed 260 km 48 months Link to Peawanuk** 150 km 36 months Transmission to Manitoba border (Nelson River) 100 km 12 months Transmission to Manitoba border (Winnipeg) 100 km 12 months

* Most roads will have more than one start point for separate crews to work simultaneously ** Possible if government funding is available (Peawanuk is only accessible by ice road)

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7.4.09 Project Size The accompanying Severn River Profile (Plate 2) shows a total of 36 high-head dams, 37 low head dams, and one Temporary Storage Weir, for a total of 74 structures; note that a powerhouse will be an integral part of each of the low- and high-head dams. This is the number of structures that might be necessary to capture the entire workable head of the river consistent with the flooding scenarios, topology of the land, and the economics of power generation. While this will appear to be a phenomenal number when dams are normally considered one at a time, the number is indicative of an integrated hydraulic system where water flowing from one site to the next is taken into account and used to advantage. In the past, when dams were built in isolation, little thought was given to the productivity that can be gained through taking advantage of the streamflow where water can move through more than one powerhouse in the same day – it just did not matter. If more clean energy is to be gained, this is a better way to do it, since this plan also entails no lost head between adjacent dams.

A considerable amount of infrastructure is involved but the yield can be all that much greater, especially when the system is integrated with wind power from Hudson Bay. Once the wind is taken into account, the entire dispatchable output can take a huge leap upwards, but only if there is sufficient water to support this intermittent source. A large hydraulic infrastructure makes extensive wind energy integration possible.

7.4.10 Project Unit Costs In estimating the cost of building the infrastructure, the following budget costs have been assumed based on available contemporary figures for 2015. These figures will have to be confirmed during the research project.

The development is intended to be built under continuous construction and not each dam as a one off project. Also, the contracts for building the infrastructure will be let under a co-operative contracting régime where the General Contractors and sub-trades have permanent work lasting decades in return for a continuous productive effort with no labour strife. Continuous construction might reduce the overall cost by 25% based on a saving of 15% on materials from long-term large- value contracts and 10% on labour for not having to reassemble a new workforce for each individual dam project and train them anew. Increased productivity, a faster work pace, and no

129 labour strife saves a further 15%. The good news is that the workers will earn more and have a steady job with no layoffs. Suppliers will take a hit on their margins but have the assurance of orders over decades if they keep their costs in line. This discount amounts to 40% in total.

The cost of the dams and powerhouses, considered as a unit, is based on the installed generating capacity, which is 45,000 MW hydraulic and 15,000 MW wind. Furthermore, the hydraulic component is divided into 30,000 MW high-head and 15,000 MW low-head. While the cost stated for the wind turbines is as might be expected, the cost of the hydro-electric facilities needs to be adjusted because the capacity is overstated when compared to what might be expected in a normal hydro-electric facility. DHE powerhouses have additional generating capacity to handle water time-shifted from night to day.

While the simulation model refines the required generating capacity at each powerhouse, the simplifying assumption will be made here that the generating capacity will be overstated by 50% in each hydraulic plant. During the week, 16 hours are on-peak and 8 hours are off-peak; with a (theoretical) identical streamflow at all times and zero generation planned at night and with adequate headpond storage, generating capacity must be 50% greater during the day than required by a run-of-the-river plant. This way, no water need be spilled unharnessed.

It is claimed that, once the roads, transmission, dams, and powerhouses are costed for a run-of- the-river configuration, the incremental cost of increasing the size of the powerhouse to accommodate a few more generating units is nominal, possibly 10% of the original dam and powerhouse cost. Thus, the total cost rises by 10% but on a per kilowatt basis it is averaged down by a factor of two-thirds. If the cost were $1.00 for a run-of-the-river plant, after averaging down it is $0.73; if the cost is further reduced by another 40% as outlined above, the final figure is $0.44. In effect, when estimating the cost based on the generating capacity (a common metric), the cost of a DHE system compared to dams and powerhouses built on a one-off basis is 44% of the one- off estimate. The extra capacity in the DHE system is to be used every day during the peak demand period – it will not gather dust unused.

Wind turbines are now approaching 15 MW in size7. For a large order and installation of 1,000 turbines, the discount is set at 40% as stated above. Capital costs in this area are dropping rapidly; however, given the marine environment in which they are to be installed, the discount is reasonable even as capital costs decline.

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There is minimal material involved in the cost of the access roads since aggregates will be mined along the wayside. The major material expense will be prefabricated bridge structures. The discount is only 15%, made up 5% from the bridges and 10% from labour productivity and minimal training (the general contractor is expected to hire experienced sub-trades). The duration of the road contracts is much shorter than constructing the dams and the opportunity for productivity gains is limited.

The transmission lines have a high material content when measured by value; however, the duration of the contracts for constructing the lines is similar to that of building the roads, in that it is much shorter than that required to construct the dam infrastructure. There is a higher level of skill required to do this work, however, but productivity gains are expected to be limited because this work is much more affected by weather. The discount here is 0% for material and 10% for labour for a total of 10%. The price of copper has a great influence on the cost of constructing the transmission infrastructure.

In the table below, the first two figures are base figures for single one-off structures and are based on contemporary values. This is meant as a rough estimate; it is recognised that these figures can vary with the overall size of the specific plant under consideration.

Category Single Project Cost Factor DHE Project Cost • Generating capacity – High-head $ 2,250 / kW 0.44 $ 990 / kW • Generating capacity – Low-head $ 3,375 / kW 0.44 $ 1,485 / kW • Wind Turbine 15 MW $ 1,000 / kW 0.60 $ 600 / kW • Two-metre weir with sluice gate $ 12,500 / m 0.60 $ 7,500 / linear m • Trunk (main) access road $ 350,000 / km 0.75 $ 262,500 / km • Secondary access road $ 250,000 / km 0.75 $ 187,500 / km • Transmission access road $ 100,000 / km 0.75 $ 75,000 / km • Transmission lateral road $ 150,000 / km 0.75 $ 112,500 / km • Tower line 1 MV DC $ 3,500,000 / km 0.90 $ 3,150,000 / km • Tower line 250 kV 3Ø $ 900,000 / km 0.90 $ 810,000 / km • Pole line 66 kV 3Ø $ 100,000 / km 0.90 $ 90,000 / km

No estimates are advanced for the capital cost of constructing the Impoundment Reservoirs since their number and locations are unknown at this writing.

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7.4.11 Estimated Project Cost (Preliminary) The above unit costs can now be applied to the Severn River Watershed to determine a rough idea of what the overall cost might be.

Estimated Costs ($-billions): • High-head sites (36 structures, 30,000 MW) 30,000 · 1,000 · 990 = $ 29.7 • Low-head sites (37 structures, 15,000 MW) 15,000 · 1,000 · 1,485 = 22.3 • Weir (1 structure 50 m in length) 50 · 7,500 = 0.0 • Wind turbines (1,000 turbines, 15,000 MW) 15,000 · 1,000 · 600 = 9.0 • Trunk road (700 km) 700 · 262,500 = 0.2 • Secondary road (800 km) 800 · 187,500 = 0.2 • Transmission access and laterals (1,250 km) 1,250 · 75,000 = 0.1 • Main DC transmission line (900 km) 900 · 3,150,000 = 2.8 • Main DC transmission laterals (200 km) 200 · 3,150,000 = 0.6 • Collector tower line (800 km) 600 · 810,000 = 0.5 • Collector pole line (200 km) 200 · 90,000 = 0.0 • Three chemical plants 3.6 • Contingency (16.9 %) 11.0

Total $ 80.0

The intended research project is to delve into the costs in greater depth. For now, the major cost items have been identified. This provides a starting point for further investigation.

7.5 Revenue and Expenses Determining the revenue that the project could achieve requires looking into the future and that is always fraught with all sorts of issues and unknowns. Nevertheless, a few things drive increased demand for electricity into the future.

The recent and ongoing reduction in demand from energy efficiency policies will soon have wrung out all of the “low hanging fruit” if this point has not been reached already. This, coupled with increased demand from electric vehicles, will cause demand to edge upwards again. It is hoped that electric vehicle demand will take place largely at night when generating capacity is available

132 to meet this demand. Of course, population continues to grow unabated as immigration rates are high. Demand from heavy industry is down and likely will not be back, at least not in any volume that will overly affect demand for electricity. However, as the Province enters into a period of nuclear plant refurbishment, there will be spot shortages of electricity from time to time, likely covered by imports. The question is, how will supply and demand match up in ten or fifteen years when a decision on building a DHE system might be under consideration?

The first sign of what might happen is when the 20-year contracts for wind energy begin to expire in 2027. The life of these facilities is only about 20 or 30 years and the cost of keeping them operational will begin to mount thereafter. Undoubtedly, advances are expected in battery storage capability given the number of laboratories working on the problem, but if the solution comes in the use of relatively scarce materials, the cost-effectiveness just might not be there. In this thesis, the best battery is water held behind a dam and always has been.

The conjecture is that a built system will produce 215 TWh of electricity with 150 TWh sold as DHE under long-term contracts and the balance of 65 TWh sold as a combination of short-term DHE contracts, spot market contracts, and as surplus energy absorbed into the aforementioned chemical industry. The simulation program will firm up these figures.

The wholesale market price for electricity in the US Mid-West is just under US$0.10/kWh at present; converting this to C$0.10/kWh given today’s exchange rates is reasonable for the purpose of this exercise. The revenue expected from the use of the surplus energy is much greater and is estimated at $0.15/kWh.

The question might arise, why not sell all of the electricity as if it were surplus if a much higher revenue can be obtained? The uses to which the surplus energy is put are opportunistic. It takes the entire DHE infrastructure and the steady sales of DHE to provide the basis for the entire business. Surplus energy is used in areas without long-term commitments since there is no assurance of how much surplus electricity there might be at any given time. This limits the amount of market penetration to which surplus energy can be devoted.

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Estimated Revenue (billions): • Sales of DHE under long-term contracts 150,000,000,000 · 0.10 = $ 15.0 • Sales of excess DHE and surplus energy 65,000,000,000 · 0.15 = 9.8 .

Total Revenue $ 23.8 .

Estimated Expenses: • Labour (20,000 employees) 20,000 · 125,000 = $ 2.5 • Employee bonuses (20%) 0.5 • Payroll taxes, employee benefits, employment overhead (50%) 1.5 • Operating repair materials (generation) 0.5 • Operating repair and consumable materials (chemicals) 1.5 • General overhead 1.8 .

Cash expenses $ 8.3 .

• Depreciation (machinery and transmission) 1.0 • Amortisation (civil works) 3.0 .

Total deductions from income $ 12.3 .

• Taxable income $ 11.5 • Income tax (33.3%) 3.8 .

Net income after tax $ 7.7 .

• Cash available before dividend payout (1.0 + 3.0 + 7.7) $ 11.7 • Dividends declared (5.0 on 42.0 equity or 11.9%) $ 5.0 .

Cash retained $ 6.7 .

• Gross margin ((23.8 – 8.3) / 23.8) 65.1 %

• Return on equity (7.7 net income / 42.0 equity) 18.3 %

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This is a preliminary investigation and many holes can be poked into its fabric. Until a better set of numbers is proposed, these figures have to suffice. The simulation analysis and the research work that accompany it can make these figures have more substance.

7.5 Financing

The development of a watershed requires extensive financing over the extended period of time that the construction is to take place, but this can only be contemplated once certain preliminary issues have demonstrated that the project is worthy of proceeding. Thus, the impending research work has to show promising results, an agreement will have to be executed among the First Nations, the financing partner, and the developer, and the government must agree (subject to an environmental assessment and possibly other conditions).

In the simplified analysis of the previous section, a gross margin of 65% before interest, taxes, and amortisation is shown. It has to be assumed that this is sufficient to attract the notice of the investing public. However, at the start risk is at its highest, so an extra inducement is needed to make it compelling for someone to invest, especially since at this point there is no revenue or return to show how worthy such an investment might be. The use of a convertible bond is one vehicle that can reduce investor inhibitions.

A convertible bond is paid in instalments over a period of time, and on the last payment when it is fully paid, the bond is completely converted onto common shares. The amount of each instalment and the payment period are chosen to match the cash flow needs forecasted by the impending construction schedule. The inducement is that the full interest rate is paid on the face value of the bond from the start even though the full value has not yet been paid – this greatly increases the investor’s return. A rate of 12% might be paid on convertible bonds with a two-year instalment period.

Another type of share that can be issued is a “Flow-Through” share, which provides generous tax advantages. Here, the shares designated as flow-through have certain expenses incurred by the company passed along to investors for deduction against their personal tax liabilities; the company renounces the right to make these deductions against its own taxable income. In the early days when the development is starting but before any electricity is generated, there are huge expenses but no income against which to offset them. This is the only period when flow-through shares

135 make financial sense. Once sales of electricity begin and revenues start to come in, and given a 65% gross margin, it is more tax-efficient to retain the deductions for offset against the earnings of the business.

The flow-through shares are identical to Class A shares in every respect and are taken from the allotment for Class A shares, but while they hold the flow-through attribute, they can be called Class F. They hold this designation until the investor sells them, at which time they automatically revert back to being Class A shares. The new purchaser of the shares will have no knowledge that the particular shares being purchased were formerly designated as Class F, nor will this make any difference to the market price.

When compared on a cost per unit of generating capacity, usually in dollars per kilowatt, the powerhouses and dams used in a DHE network have a lower unit cost than is typical in the industry. This results from a higher generating capacity residing in the powerhouses than would normally be expected, at least 50% more although a final figure cannot be stated until the simulation analysis is completed. The various strategies that are deployed to ensure that more water is used in generation during the peak demand hours of the day in theory results in an increase of 50% more water being available – with pumped storage, this figure can be higher. Accordingly, 50% more generating capacity will be needed at a minimum if the output is spread evenly throughout the day, but likely more if the peak hours are to be satisfied. At a guess, this capacity might have to be 60% more without pumped storage and as much as 75% more with it. This increase in capacity will average down the cost per installed megawatt of generating capacity considerably. When the fixed cost of building the access roads, transmission lines, and the civil works is considered, the incremental cost of expanding the generating capacity is nominal – perhaps 10% – essentially extending the powerhouse and adding the additional generating capacity.

How much money must be raised? For the Severn Watershed with a 60,000 MW capacity (likely 45,000 MW hydraulic, 15,000 MW wind), including two ammonia plants, each capable of producing 5,000 tonnes per day, plus one sulphuric acid plant producing 5,000 tonnes per day, the cost is estimated to be $80-billion in 2015 dollars. It is suggested in the next paragraph that $42-billion will have to be raised in equity. Once this amount of infrastructure has been built and with a gross margin of 65.1%, the amount of cash that the business is earning internally will be

136 sufficient to make further development self-financing. Should some additional funds be needed, the company can issue bonds.

The main advantage for the development to issuing convertible debentures and flow-through shares is that once these financial instruments are issued, there is no recourse or refund. They ultimately result in Class A shares being traded on a stock exchange since the company – that started as a shell company – is listed on an exchange and suffering all of the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune that, ultimately, such a listing entails. Primary distribution is a difficult challenge for capital intensive business; having financial inducements that can smooth the way to get the initial shares distributed cannot be overlooked.

The Native shareholding is intended to provide them with a meaningful degree of control. The amount of revenue that this will provide is difficult to project, but it might start at 12% on the $60,000 value of the original shareholding, or $7,200 annually. But this is not the only payment that they will receive. The three communities also will be making payments, as will the transmission rights-of-way. Then there are the roads for which the First Nations will not have to pay and the employment that their members will enjoy. The communities will bring better services, such as health care and education. It is a complex issue to resolve if it is enough for the Native people, but it can be seen from the cost estimates that close to one-half billion dollars will be paid on roads, for example, for which they will not have to pay anything.

Getting over the initial financing hump is not anticipated to be easy. The idea of DHE has to be compelling and sell itself in a world with many competing and compelling ideas. But this bears repeating: In a world striving for clean, renewable, sustainable, and reliable energy, only hydro-electricity in the form of DHE meets all of these criteria simultaneously.

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Chapter 8 International Opportunities

8.0 Background

The concept of DHE started with the modest goal of efficiently attaining as much energy from a river as practical, but it became apparent that it could be deployed to do more. Two examples are presented.

8.1 Moving water across continents

PHASE IX (Pumped Storage) described how it is possible to pump water up past dams at night utilising surplus energy which has little or no value at that time and then use the pumped water a second time the next day when market rates for electric energy are much higher. This concept can be taken a step farther. If it possible to reverse a portion of a river for a few hours, it is possible to reverse an entire river for an extended period of several weeks. In effect, the pumped storage technique can be used to reverse the flow in a river, thereby moving water over continental divides and across continents from where water is abundant to where it is scarce.

This is not a new idea. The original concept, the Great Recycling And Northern Development (GRAND) Canal has been promoted since 1959, “but its cost and potential environmental impacts have prevented serious consideration of the idea”26. Research into DHE will yield results that show the cost barriers have been overcome; environmental issues will remain but are not the topic of this thesis. DHE removes the cost barriers because the technology deployed in DHE has not been available until now; in particular, the low-head turbine technology and the ability to utilise almost the full head of a river are two factors that make the long distance movement of water possible.

(Shortly before he passed away at age 100, your author has a telephone conversation with Thomas Kierans P.Eng, the originator of the GRAND Canal concept. I explained to him about the research outlined in this thesis and how the GRAND Canal might play a part. He was somewhat surprised to hear that someone was working in this area.)

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In PHASE IX, it mentioned the need for a large source from which to pump water on a nightly basis. There, a salt water source was deemed to be acceptable since the pumping action would last at most for eight hours and a limited amount of water would be moved. If water is to be moved across the continent, a serious amount of water will have to be moved and without any change in the source the entire river will become filled with salt water in short order. The large source must be fresh water.

Canada has only 7%27 of the world’s renewable fresh water, but this is a temporary ownership. Eventually, all of this water will find its way into the sea or the atmosphere. “Rescuing” water from mingling with sea water, where it loses its value as fresh water, must be beneficial if the rescued water can be put to good use. The proposition here is that rescuing this water can serve a higher purpose.

The GRAND Canal scheme proposes turning James Bay into a fresh water lake. Constructing a causeway across the neck of James Bay from Cape Henrietta Maria eastward to the Quebec shoreline is an enormously expensive undertaking, however. It is suggested here that building an east-west causeway across Akimiski Island and connecting with one of the two larger islands en route towards the Quebec side would make the cost of construction less, albeit still a formidable task. This part of the bay is shallower and the islands make the amount of fill required much less than that required in the GRAND Canal scheme where the bay is somewhat deeper. Suffice it to say the latter suggestion might be a better engineering solution to this costly issue.

But there is also a social issue in the number of communities that cling to the coast of James Bay and will be flooded if the surface of fresh water portion of James Bay is raised by ten metres. On the Ontario side, there are Kashechewan, Fort Albany, Moosonee, and Moose Factory, and on the Quebec side, there are Fort Rupert and Eastmain. No doubt, several smaller unnamed settlements might also be affected. Many of these communities have been affected by repeated flooding; this will be an opportunity to rebuild on higher ground in a manner that will keep them safe from floodwaters. Taking this action and rebuilding these communities at higher elevations once and for all will save them from the predicted sea level rise under Climate Change. The advantage of doing it as part of moving fresh water is that the funds to pay for the relocation might be available from others as mentioned below.

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There is also an issue of the possible transport of invasive species from one watershed to the next. This would have to be studied closely. However, we do know that such diversions of water have already occurred from the Albany River to the Great Lakes almost 80 years ago without any apparent adverse effects. These diversions are at Ogoki and Long Lake.

It was stated in PHASE IX that were a river sufficiently long and pumped storage applied along its full length, there might not be any need for a large reservoir source, or any reservoir at all for that matter. This would have to be investigated during the simulation research as it could greatly simplify the possibility of achieving the GRAND Canal objective without altering James Bay in any way.

Who benefits and who will pay? While the fresh water will initially flow to Western Canada where some of it can be used but the use in the West would be modest – too little to justify the huge cost. The ultimate destination is the US Southwest including California via the Colorado River. DHE has a very wide scope and a very long reach. Our American friends are short of fresh water now and their situation is not going to get any better as they continue to draw down their aquifers with an ever-expanding population and rapacious demand. If they want the water, they will have to pay for the infrastructure and the settlement relocations. At a guess, the cost might be US$250- to US$300-billion to bring the water to the Alberta/Montana border, net of the hydro-electric infrastructure which would be built along the way. The charge per cubic metre might be US$0.50 to cover the operational and maintenance costs. This is based on 2017 dollars.

In return, about 3,500 m3/s could be delivered over a period of 16 weeks during the freshet when water is plentiful. This amounts to just under 34 km3 of water. To put this into perspective, the Red River Floodway that skirts Winnipeg has a capacity of 4,000 m3/s28. Moving this volume of water in the spring might be able to reduce or eliminate the seasonal flooding that occurs. More might be available if accumulated water were emptied from the Impoundment Reservoirs immediately before the freshet.

This is not the only place in the world where DHE can be used to move water across continents. The same approach can be used in the Lena Rover basin in Siberia where water and electricity could be sent to China. However, given the political situation in Russia, it might not worth investigating such an opportunity at this time. (See Section 8.2 Siberia.)

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8.2 Siberia

While the research will concentrate on the rivers of Northern Ontario, considered to be the best location to demonstrate DHE, this is not the only place where DHE can be deployed. There are three major rivers in Siberia, part of the Russian Federation, along with their world rank and length: • Yenisei ( 5th – 5,539 km) • Ob ( 7th – 5,410 km) • Lena (11th – 4,400 km)

Of these three rivers, the Lena River offers the best opportunity for hydro-electric development. One only has to see the size of its massive river delta in the Laptev Sea (Arctic Ocean) to see why. Most of the Lena River flows through a shallow canyon carved out of the underlying sandstone since the end of the last glacial age, some 12,000 years ago. All of the sandstone excavated from the river channel is now in that enormous delta.

The Lena River has a very modest gradient of about one metre vertical per 12.5 km horizontal on average, or 8 cm/km. Over the lower 3,500 km of this river, a dam located every 125 km would develop a head of about 10 m, with the entire headpond being confined within the river channel. Surface flooding easily could be avoided with modest diking at the few places where the river banks are low. There are very few islands in this river; those that exist are mainly sandbars caused by the flow depositing sediment where the current slows, such as at the inside of a bend in the river or where the river is abnormally wide. Similarly, major tributaries have carved out their own channels and are also largely devoid of islands.

The average annual flow at discharge is about 17,000 m3/s, but during the freshet this flow can exceed 240,000 m3/s although flows under 100,000 m3/s are more typical. Streamflow during the freeze-up period (November – April) is low. It would require aggressive supplementation by pumped storage at night to maintain adequate daytime generation, with the necessary energy coming from wind turbines. Much of the river flows over permafrost; once freeze-up sets in along the permafrost zone, surface runoff drops to almost nothing. At this time, there is no groundwater infeed except in the southern reaches of the river where there is no permafrost.

This river is completely undeveloped. There are no dams anywhere and no bridges cross the river over the lower 3,500 km of its length, although there are plans for a combined railway/highway

141 bridge at Yakutsk, about 1,500 km south of the river’s delta. The completion for this bridge is currently planned for after 2020, although the railhead already is at the south shore of the river. Seasonal ice roads are built across the river and boats can be used for the crossing at times when the river is free of ice. During freeze-up and break-up periods, helicopters are used to make the crossing.

At a guess, this river has an estimated hydro-electric potential of almost 200,000 MW under DHE; if integrated with wind power, the output could be much more, possibly 250,000 MW based on Canadian experience. However, since there already is a functioning electricity generation and distribution system in Siberia (mostly coal plants), the target market for the electricity would be China to reduce their reliance on coal. Furthermore, as discussed elsewhere, fresh water could be transported to China during the freshet via the Olyokma River, over the continental divide into the Shilka River to the Amur River, which forms the border between Russia and China. China would take the water from the Amur River at a convenient point downstream of its confluence with the Shilka River. In pumping water up the Olyokma River, the Lena River is the large source of water since the streamflow during the freshet will be a multiple of the water drawn from the main river.

The above is not stated without cognizance of the political situation in the Russian Federation and in particular its corruption and lack of “rule of law”29. Were such a development to take place under the present circumstances, it likely would have to be a state-to-state agreement (Russia/China) which could rise above the base political issues faced by ordinary businesses. This effectively means it will not happen for a long time, if ever. China must become anxious to reduce atmospheric emissions and develop a much greater need for fresh water, and be prepared to pay for it; the deterioration of the economy in Russia will have to reach the point that the foreign investment will be necessary to boost its foreign exchange reserves, employment, exports, and ultimately its economic fortunes.

Your attention is directed to the five published papers written by the author on the hydro-electric development possibility of the Lena River30 in the Russian Federation. Three views of the Lena River are presented in the following picture panel.

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Photographs 6, 7, and 8: Three views of the Lena River

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Chapter 9 Concluding Remarks

This thesis outlines a process for evaluating four versions of a single research project per the four flooding scenarios stated at its beginning; evaluating all of these scenarios adds to the time for the completion of this work, but puts the increasing degree of flooding into perspective. Each scenario in turn will show the progressive yield in power and energy which can be achieved in the same watershed. The complexity of this unique line of research will require a team of 12 professionally trained individuals to bring it to fruition in a timely manner and with quality results.

In a world striving for clean, renewable, and non-emitting energy, the research is designed to demonstrate that the combination of water and wind, when integrated under a DHE régime, will yield the maximum amount of dispatchable power and energy that can possibly be attained during peak demand hours and in a capital-efficient manner. From the preliminary work done to date, there is little doubt that this research stands a good chance to show in a formal, verifiable, and defendable manner that DHE is a viable concept when applied to the rivers of Northern Ontario, particularly when integrated with the wind power available on Hudson or James Bay. The ability to direct the surplus energy “by-product” into other productive uses adds to the profitability of any implementation of DHE. Similar results should be expected from any river that is analysed in a similar manner.

The cost of the research, estimated at $6.5-million over a maximum of seven years, reflects the amount of work content included in gathering data and building an appropriate computer simulation model. Once the model is built, it can be applied to any watershed anywhere in the world with the appropriate geographic and streamflow input data. Clearly, future costs will be less for subsequent work with a computer simulation program already developed and proven through use. However, there is still a price for quality output since gathering and applying the appropriate geographic and streamflow data for each river system to be considered is labour intensive.

The research does not dwell on environmental assessment issues although they are not ignored. The value of DHE must be taken in comparison to the environmental harm caused by the continued combustion of fossil fuels. In examining the four scenarios stated at the start of this thesis, it can be seen that a relationship might be developed between encroachment on the environment through

144 flooding and the yield in clean, renewable, and sustainable power and energy. Were a watershed to be developed, this is a trade-off that the Native residents will have to consider with care as the choice will result in a permanent change to their ancestral homeland. Increased surface flooding will also come with increased revenue, and in the minds of some result in a classic dilemma. There will be an end to gratuitous flooding, however, as the DHE régime renders all communities safer from the freshet, ice dams, and wild river flows running out of control overland every spring.

There are socioeconomic issues that involve the Native residents of the watersheds that become developed. Here, education, training, and permanent employment in good, well paying, and productive jobs are the objective, but measuring and assessing this is beyond the scope of the research. This factor is one that will presumably weigh heavily in the decision of the Native leadership in any decision when agreeing to having hydro-electric development take place as it is different from what their culture has been to the present. The research can only demonstrate what is possible, both the good and the bad, but the Native people must be allowed to independently evaluate the research results and make a final decision for themselves.

Developing the four remaining rivers in Northern Ontario will not be easy nor will it be inexpensive. There are no roads and no communities of any significance in the norther part of this Province – mostly isolated fly-in settlements, each with a few hundred Native people. In effect, not only does the utility infrastructure have to be constructed from scratch, but so will the communities to house the workers who will build and operate these facilities. At the start, there will not be sufficient First Nation members who will have the education and training to take many of the highly skilled jobs that hydro-electric development offers, but over time it is expected that the proportion of skilled Native workers will grow. The best way to ensure this is to provide the education that Native workers will need plus employ and train as many of them as possible in all aspects of the construction and operation of the business right from the start. We need our political leaders to share this vision and see the good that can be wrought in an area of Ontario that for far too long history has ignored.

This thesis has gone farther than just describe academic research: it shows how it can fit into a larger context. It is not a matter of doing this research and then nothing. Our neighbour to the south is still burning coal and some there are proud of it. In Southern Ontario, we are still breathing dirty air as a result of the use of that coal. The results of this research need to be applied, and soon.

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References

1 Ontario Government, Independent Electricity System Operator, http://www.ieso.ca/power-data

2 Energy Storage Association, http://energystorage.org/energy-storage/technologies/flywheels

3 Fabio Caiazzo et al, Air pollution and early deaths in the United States. Part I: Quantifying the impact of major sectors in 2005, Elsevier, Vol 79, Nov 2013, Pages 198-208

4 Ontario Government, Ontario Power Generation, http://www.opg.com/generating-power/hydro/Pages/hydro.aspx

5 QNX Corporation, http://www.qnx.com/company/education/

6 Government of Canada, Canadian Wind Energy Atlas, http://www.windatlas.ca/maps-en.php

7 The Telegraph, The Telegraph Media Group, London, UK, http://www.telegraph.co.uk

8 Fortis Inc, https://www.fortisinc.com/our-companies

9 Wikipedia on line, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_Glacial_Maximum, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_glacial_period

10 Domingues, C.M et al (2008). "Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi- decadal sea-level rise". Nature. 453 (7198): 1090-3.

11 Government of Canada, Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change, https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate- change/news/2017/06/low_carbon_economyfund.html

12 Wikipedia on line, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermosetting_polymer

The author has over 20 years’ experience in the electric motor manufacturing industry where thermoset resins are used extensively for securing windings in rotating machinery.

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13 Earthquake Track, https://earthquaketrack.com/r/ontario-canada/recent?before=1987-05- 30+11%3A29%3A18+UTC

14 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Chicago, Illinois, http://thebulletin.org/timeline

15 The Guardian, Manchester, UK, https://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/jul/28/uk-can- expect-just-12-hours-warning-damaging-solar-storm-space-weather

16 Chandler, Nathan, How Faraday Cages Work, http://science.howstuffworks.com/faraday- cage5.htm

17 Wikipedia on line, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_RAID_levels

19 Wikipedia on line, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohm%27s_law

20 An Energetic Earth, A terrestrial Systems Text, Third Custom Edition, CIV300/ENV346 TES, University of Toronto, Page 154

21 This figure comes from articles published in Nature and Scientific American some 20 years ago. While it is old information, the action of the Ferrel cell outlined in Citation 20 tends to support this figure as remaining plausible.

22 Stan Rogers, “Northwest Passage”, Canadian folksong, 1981. Chorus:

Ah for one more time I would take the Northwest Passage,

To find the hand of Franklin reaching for the Beaufort Sea,

Tracing one warm line through a land so wild and savage,

And make a Northwest Passage to the sea.

23 Bailey, Sue, The Canadian Press, June 23, 2017, http://globalnews.ca/news/3551273/muskrat- falls-hydro-project-price-tag-rises-by-another-billion-ceo/

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24 Wikipedia on line, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Recycling_and_Northern_Development_Canal

25 Government of Canada, Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, https://www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=1C100657-1#ws46B1DCCC

26 Government of Manitoba, Manitoba Infrastructure, https://www.gov.mb.ca/mit/wms/rrf/index.html

27 World Justice Project, https://worldjusticeproject.org/about-us/overview/what-rule-law

28 There are five papers in the series: 1. Extracting All of the Energy from a River with Dispatchable Hydro-Electricity (2012) 2. Dispatchable Hydro-Electricity with Distributed Storage and Pumped Storage (2012) 3. Unfinished Business – A tale of Two Rivers (2012) 4. Strategic Planning for Cities: Flood Prevention (2013) 5. Extracting All of the Energy from a River with Dispatchable Hydro-Electricity (2014)

These papers were all published in journals through the University of Togliatti in Togliatti, Samara Oblast, Russian Federation. A copy of any of these papers (in English) can be obtained from the author.

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Acronyms

DEM Digital elevation model

DHE Dispatchable Hydro-Electricity

ESRI Earth Science Resources Inc (developer of ArcMAP)

IESO Independent Electricity System Operator

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