Wivenhoe and Somerset Dams Optimisation Study Report
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Wivenhoe and Somerset Dams Optimisation Study Report March 2014 1 2 1. Aerial view of Lake Wivenhoe (Wivenhoe Dam on the left, middle). Courtesy of Tourism Queensland. Photographer: Barry Goodwin 2. Wivenhoe Dam with centre gate spilling. Source: Seqwater, Revision 11 Flood Manual, Appendix H, Figure 8 This publication has been compiled by the Department of Energy and Water Supply © State of Queensland, 2014. The Queensland Government supports and encourages the dissemination and exchange of its information. The copyright in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia (CC BY) licence. Under this licence you are free, without having to seek our permission, to use this publication in accordance with the licence terms. You must keep intact the copyright notice and attribute the State of Queensland as the source of the publication. For more information on this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. The Queensland Government shall not be liable for technical or other errors or omissions contained herein. The reader/user accepts all risks and responsibility for losses, damages, costs and other consequences resulting directly or indirectly from using this information Contents List of tables vi List of figures viii Preface xiii Acknowledgments xv Glossary xvi Summary xx S1. Purpose xx S2. Parallel Studies xx S3. Project management xx S4. Operational options xxi S5. Conclusions xxvi Summary of studies xxxi S6. Studies undertaken xxxi S7. Flood events modelled xxxiii S8. Key points xxxiv S9. Integrated assessment of operational options xliii Chapter 1 Background 1 1.1 Wivenhoe and Somerset dams 1 1.2 Lead-up to the January 2011 flood event 2 1.3 The January 2011 flood event 4 1.4 Historical peak flows 9 1.5 Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 12 1.6 Purpose and scope 15 1.7 Context 16 1.8 Project management 17 1.9 Reports prepared 19 1.10 Planning for the optimisation study 20 Chapter 2 Wivenhoe and Somerset dams overview 22 2.1 Wivenhoe Dam 22 2.2 Somerset Dam 25 2.3 Catchment 27 2.4 Brisbane River floodplain 34 Chapter 3 Flood Manual 39 3.1 Legislative requirements 39 3.2 Changes to the Flood Manual since the 2011 flood event 40 3.3 Overview of the current manual of dam operations 43 3.4 Wivenhoe Dam operations 47 3.5 Somerset Dam operations 51 3.6 Dam operations with temporary full supply level 52 Chapter 4 Issues and challenges 53 4.1 Flood Commission of Inquiry recommendations 53 4.2 Operation of the dams 58 4.3 Uncertainty of modelling 59 4.4 Planning linkages 61 Chapter 5 Operational options 62 5.1 Options identification 62 5.2 Option definition 62 5.3 Operational alternatives 66 Chapter 6 Dam flood operations assessment 75 6.1 Operational options 75 6.2 Flood operation strategies 76 6.3 Flood operations simulation model (FOSM) 79 6.4 Flood events modelled 82 6.5 Modification to the drain-down period 83 Chapter 7 Dam operations – flood mitigation assessment 85 7.1 Introduction 85 7.2 Results summary 94 7.3 Flood mitigation provided by reducing the full supply volume 96 7.4 Flood mitigation provided by varying operations 100 7.5 Relative change plots 104 7.6 Results analysis and discussion 105 7.7 Performance of the existing Wivenhoe-Somerset system 115 7.8 Conclusions 117 Chapter 8 Water supply security 120 8.1 General 120 8.2 Water storages and drought response strategy 121 8.3 Water security modelling 123 8.4 The Regional Stochastic Model (RSM) 124 8.5 Modelled scenarios and assumptions 124 8.6 System yield assessments 125 8.7 Cumulative probability assessments 129 8.8 Conclusions 133 Chapter 9 Dam Safety 135 9.1 General 135 9.2 Legislation 135 9.3 Dam failure and Acceptable Flood Capacity 136 9.4 Dam safety impacts of operational alternatives 140 9.5 Upgrade options 149 9.6 Conclusions 150 Chapter 10 Bridge and crossing submergence 153 10.1 Transport impacts due to flooding below Wivenhoe Dam 153 10.2 Outcome of assessment of transport options 159 10.3 Conclusions 161 Chapter 11 Bank slumping and erosion 162 11.1 Erosion processes below Wivenhoe Dam 162 11.2 Outcome of the erosion assessment 164 11.3 Conclusions 167 Chapter 12 Riparian flora and fauna 169 12.1 Ecological impacts downstream of Wivenhoe Dam 170 12.2 Conclusions 173 Chapter 13 Flood notifications and warnings 174 13.1 Queensland’s disaster management arrangements (QDMA) 174 13.2 Regulatory standards for notifications and warnings 176 13.3 Roles of responsible organisations in flood warning 177 13.4 Conclusions 181 Chapter 14 Floodplain risk data 183 14.1 Inundation extents 183 14.2 Building and property data 187 14.3 Limitations 188 Chapter 15 Integrated assessment of options 189 15.1 NPC assessment methodology 190 15.2 Phase 1 - Flood damages 196 15.3 Phase 2 - Flood impact costs 206 15.4 Phase 3 - Bulk water supply infrastructure costs 211 15.5 Phase 4 Bulk water operational costs 213 15.6 Phase 5 – Part 1–Net present costs summary 215 15.7 Phase 5 – Part 2– Integrated assessment of NPC’s of options 227 References 234 Legislation 238 List of tables Table S1 Summary of flood operations alternatives ................................................ xxiii Table S2 Description of flood operations alternatives ............................................... xxv Table S3 Flood mitigation impacts - comparative summary of options (relative change of average over many floods) .................................................................. xxxv Table S4 Dam safety impacts - comparative summary of options (relative change over many floods) .......................................................................................... xxxix Table S5 Flood effects on bridges and crossings - comparative summary of options (relative change of average over many floods) ............................................ xli Table S6 Total NPC costs for medium-term assumptions ....................................... xlviii Table S7 NPC of increase in water supply costs attributed to Wivenhoe Dam ........ xlviii Table 1.1 Outflow from three separate flood events, commencing December 2010 ..... 4 Table 1.2 Selected January 2011 flood heights - Brisbane River ................................. 5 Table 1.3 Selected January 2011 flood heights - Bremer River ................................... 5 Table 1.4 Summary of January 2011 inflows and outflows for Wivenhoe and Somerset dams ............................................................................................................ 6 Table 1.5 Historical no-dam peak flows at Wivenhoe Dam site .................................... 9 Table 1.6 QFCoI recommendations relevant to WSDOS – Interim Report ................. 13 Table 1.7 QFCoI recommendations relevant to WSDOS – Final Report .................... 14 Table 2.1 Characteristics of Wivenhoe Dam .............................................................. 23 Table 2.2 Wivenhoe Dam auxiliary spillway specifications ......................................... 25 Table 2.3 Characteristics of Somerset Dam ............................................................... 26 Table 2.4 Bridges potentially impacted by elevated lake levels in Somerset Dam ...... 31 Table 2.5 Estimated number of properties flooded by 1974 and 2011 Floods ............ 37 Table 4.1 Key issues identified in QFCoI ................................................................... 53 Table 5.1 Operational alternatives considered ........................................................... 63 Table 5.2 Summary of flood operations variations ..................................................... 64 Table 5.3 Operational alternatives and relevance to QFCoI Interim Report recommendation 2.13 ................................................................................ 64 Table 5.4 Wivenhoe Dam full supply volume (FSV) scenarios ................................... 65 Table 6.1 Operational alternatives and options .......................................................... 75 Table 7.1 Presentation of results ............................................................................... 85 Table 7.2 Flood mitigation comparative summary – relative change of average over many floods ............................................................................................... 95 Table 7.3 Relative change plots ............................................................................... 105 Table 8.1 Modelled water security scenarios ........................................................... 124 Table 8.2 Comparison of system yields and limiting factors ..................................... 126 vi Table 8.3 Cumulative probability of SEQ water storages reaching 60%, 40% and 30% trigger levels – North Pine and Wivenhoe dams FSV lowered (with manufactured water available) ................................................................. 130 Table 8.4 Cumulative probability of SEQ water storages reaching 60%, 40% and 30% trigger levels – various North Pine and Wivenhoe dams FSVs versus manufactured water availability ................................................................ 131 Table 9.1 Prescribed schedule for dam safety upgrades ......................................... 142 Table 9.2 Current estimates of Wivenhoe and Somerset Dams Acceptable Flood Capacity ................................................................................................... 143 Table 10.1 Flood-impacted bridges and crossings downstream of Wivenhoe Dam .... 155 Table 15.1 AADs for each local government