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Vol. 3, No. 2 Summer 2020 The Air Force Journal of JIPA Indo-Pacific Affairs Chief of Staff, US Air Force Gen David L. Goldfein, USAF Commander, Air Education and Training Command Lt Gen Marshall B. Webb, USAF Commander and President, Air University Lt Gen James B. Hecker, USAF Director, Air University Academic Services Dr. Mehmed Ali Director, Air University Press Dr. Christopher Rein Chief of Professional Journals Maj Richard T. Harrison, USAF Editorial Staff Dr. Ernest Gunasekara-Rockwell, Editor Luyang Yuan, Editorial Assistant Daniel M. Armstrong, Illustrator Megan N. Hoehn, Print Specialist Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs ( JIPA) 600 Chennault Circle Maxwell AFB AL 36112-6010 e-mail: [email protected] Visit Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs online at https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/. ISSN 2576-5361 (Print) ISSN 2576-537X (Online) Published by the Air University Press, The Air Force Journal of Indo–Pacific Affairs ( JIPA) is a professional journal of the US Air Force and a forum for worldwide dialogue regarding the Indo–Pacific region, spanning from the west coasts of the Americas to the eastern shores of Africa and covering much of Asia and all of Oceania. The journal fosters intellectual and professional development for members of the Air Force and the world’s other English-speaking militaries and informs decision makers and academicians around the globe. Articles submitted to the journal must be unclassified, nonsensitive, and releasable to the public. Features represent fully researched, thoroughly documented, and peer-reviewed scholarly articles 5,000 to 6,000 words in length. Views articles are shorter than Features—3,000 to 5,000 words—typically expressing well-thought-out and developed opinions about regional topics. The Commentary section offers a forum about current subjects of interest. These short posts are 1,500 to 2,500 words in length. Submit all manuscripts to [email protected]. The views and opinions expressed or implied in JIPA are those of the authors and should not be construed as carrying the official sanction of the United States Air Force, the Department of Defense, Air Education and Training Command, Air University, or other agencies or departments of the US government. https://www.af.mil/ https://www.aetc.af.mil/ https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/ VOL. 3 NO. 2 SUMMER 2020 FEATURES 4 Terrorism in the Indo- Pacific The Year Gone By and the Road Ahead Dr. Sam Mullins 35 NicholasComparing Borroz Space Sectors Down Under 55 Chasing the Chimera of the Indigenous Jet Fighter China’s Stealth Fighters and the Lessons of Recent Aviation History Owen L. Sirrs 78 A Footprint of Unfreedom The Future of Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia Dr. Peter Harris DIGITAL - ONLY FEATURES 98 China’s Rising Missile and Naval Capabilities in the Indo- Pacific Region Security Implications for India and Its Allies Thangavel K. Balasubramaniam Ashok Kumar Murugesan 112 Caught in the Middle An Empirical Assessment of the Impact of the Trade War and Beijing’s Taishang Incentive Policies on the Taishang’s Movement in and out of Mainland China Dr. Kelan (Lilly) Lu Kuan- Wu Chen 127 Exporting Nuclear Norms Japan and South Korea in the International Nuclear Market Dr. James E. Platte DIGITAL - ONLY VIEWS 146 Chinese Communist Party Information Warfare US–China Competition during the COVID-19 Pandemic Eric Chan 1st Lt Peter Loftus, USAF 159 Kashmir Beyond Imbroglios Dr. Usman W. Chohan Omer Aamir Editorial Advisors Gen Charles Q. Brown, Jr., USAF, Commander, Pacific Air Forces Gen Herbert J. Carlisle, USAF, Retired; President & CEO, National Defense Industrial Association Amb. Daniel Shields, Retired, Department of State Dr. Matthew C. Stafford, Chief Academic Officer, Air Education and Training Command Dr. Christopher Rein, Director, Air University Press Reviewers Air Cdre Nasim Abbas, Pakistan Air Force Dr. Jai Galliott Dr. Dayne Nix Instructor Defense Analyst, Cyber Security Professor, Joint Maritime Operations Air War College (Pakistan) Australian Defence Force Academy US Naval War College Dr. Sascha-Dominik “Dov” Bachmann Maj Jessica Gott, USAF Dr. Frank O’Donnell Professor of Law and Justice Strategy Officer Postdoctoral Fellow, National Security Affairs University of Canberra (Australia) US Naval War College Dr. Manabrata Guha Dr. Lewis Bernstein Distinguished Fellow, Centre for Joint Dr. James E. Platte Historian, retired Warfare Studies Assistant Professor US Army Ministry of Defence (India) Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies Dr. Paul J. Bolt Dr. Achala Gunasekara-Rockwell Dr. Terence Roehrig Professor, Political Science Indian Languages and Cultural Advisor Professor, National Security Affairs US Air Force Academy University of Alabama at Birmingham US Naval War College CDR John F. Bradford, US Navy Dr. Amit Gupta Dr. Jim Rolfe President Professor, International Security Studies Senior Fellow, Centre for Strategic Studies Yokosuka Council on Asia–Pacific Studies US Air War College Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand) Dr. Sean Braniff Dr. Akhlaque Haque Assistant Professor, International Security Professor of Political Science and Public Studies Mr. Richard M. Rossow Administration Senior Adviser and Wadhwani Chair in US– US Air War College University of Alabama at Birmingham India Policy Studies Dr. David Brewster Center for Strategic and International Studies Senior Research Fellow, National Security Dr. Jessica Jordan Assistant Professor College Maj Gary J. Sampson, USMC Air Force Culture and Language Center Australian National University Foreign Area Officer, Northeast Asia Dr. Isaac Kardon Commodore Abhay Kumar Singh, retired Dr. Stephen F. Burgess Assistant Professor, China Maritime Studies Professor, International Security Studies Research Fellow Institute US Air War College Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses US Naval War College (India) Dr. Chester B. Cabalza Vice President, Center of Research and Mr. Chris Kolakowski Mr. Daniel K. Taylor Strategic Studies Director Defense Intelligence Officer for East Asia Development Academy of the Philippines General Douglas MacArthur Memorial Defense Intelligence Agency Mr. Eric Chan Dr. Carlo Kopp Dr. Lavanya Vemsani Policy Analyst Lecturer Professor, History and Religious Studies US Air Force Monash University (Australia) Shawnee State University Dr. Adam Claasen Dr. Amit Kumar Dr. Michael E. Weaver Senior Lecturer in History President Associate Professor Massey University (New Zealand) AAA International Security Consultants Air Command and Staff College CDR Mark R. Condeno Lt Col Scott D. McDonald Mr. Keith Webster Philippine Coast Guard United States Marine Corps, retired Senior Vice President for Defense and Aerospace Dr. Zack Cooper Dr. Montgomery McFate Senior Fellow for Asian Security Professor, Strategic and Operational Research US–India Strategic Partnership Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies US Naval War College Brig Gen Craig D. Wills, USAF Director of Strategy, Plans, and Programs Lt Col Alexander B. Fafinski, USAF Dr. Brendan S. Mulvaney Military Professor, National Security Affairs Director Pacific Air Forces US Naval War College China Aerospace Studies Institute Dr. Roland B. Wilson Dr. Ian C. Forsyth Dr. Satoru Nagao Program Coordinator & Professor of Conflict Analyst Visiting Fellow Analysis & Resolution George Mason Department of Defense Hudson Institute University, Korea Campus FEATURE Terrorism in the Indo-Pacific * The Year Gone By and the Road Ahead DR. SAM MULLINS lobally, terrorism has been on the decline since peaking in 2014, the year that the Islamic State (ISIS) declared its “caliphate” in the Middle East. Nevertheless, terrorism levels are still approximately double what they Gwere a decade ago and around five times what they were in 2001.1 The Indo- Pacific region, which encompasses most of Asia, as well as North America, Aus- tralasia, Oceania, and parts of South America, consistently experiences some of the highest rates of terrorism in the world, and 2019 was no exception.2 This ar- ticle, though by no means an exhaustive account, provides a roughly chronological overview of significant terrorist activities in the Indo-Pacific during the past year, with a particular focus on South and Southeast Asia. This is followed by several important advances in counterterrorism (CT). The article concludes by consider- ing what these, and other developments, may portend for the future. An Evolving Threat: Significant Developments in 2019 Suicide Bombing in the Philippines The year began with a deadly, twin suicide bombing of the Cathedral of Our Lady of Mount Carmel in Jolo in the southern Philippines, in which 23 people lost their lives and scores more were injured. Executed by 35-year-old Rullie Rian Zeke and his 32-year- old wife, Ulfah Handayani Saleh, both from Indonesia, the attack was demonstrative of the enduring potency of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), which orchestrated it, as well as Jamaah Ansharut Daulah ( JAD), which the two perpetrators had been members of in Indonesia.3 It furthermore under- scored the continuing influence of ISIS (with which both ASG and JAD are aligned), the threat of foreign fighters, the heightened popularity of sectarian targets, and the importance of family ties between militants in the region. Also of great concern was the fact that this was the second suicide bombing in the Philip- pines within the space of six months—a rarity for the archipelagic nation, despite struggling with decades of insurgency and terrorism. Fears that suicide bombing * Previously
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