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The Future of the Uniting Church in Australia: the Application Of COPYRIGHT AND USE OF THIS THESIS This thesis must be used in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. Reproduction of material protected by copyright may be an infringement of copyright and copyright owners may be entitled to take legal action against persons who infringe their copyright. Section 51 (2) of the Copyright Act permits an authorized officer of a university library or archives to provide a copy (by communication or otherwise) of an unpublished thesis kept in the library or archives, to a person who satisfies the authorized officer that he or she requires the reproduction for the purposes of research or study. The Copyright Act grants the creator of a work a number of moral rights, specifically the right of attribution, the right against false attribution and the right of integrity. You may infringe the author’s moral rights if you: - fail to acknowledge the author of this thesis if you quote sections from the work - attribute this thesis to another author - subject this thesis to derogatory treatment which may prejudice the author’s reputation For further information contact the University’s Director of Copyright Services sydney.edu.au/copyright THE UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY CANDIDATE’S CERTIFICATE I certify that the thesis entitled “The Future of the Uniting Church in Australia: The Application of Scenario Planning to the Creation of Four “Futures” for the Uniting Church in Australia” and submitted for the degree of PhD in Religious Studies is the result of my own research, except where otherwise acknowledged, and that this thesis (or any part of the same) has not been submitted for a higher degree to any other university or institution Signed………………………………………….. Date: March 28 2013 i List of Contents List of Contents ......................................................................................................................... ii Chapter 1: Introduction to the Dissertation ............................................................................... 2 Summary of the Dissertation ....................................................................................... 2 Reasons for Writing the Disseration ............................................................................ 3 The Assembly Strategic Planning Unit ...................................................................... 15 Participant Observer .................................................................................................. 19 Chapter 2: The Uniting Church in Australia ............................................................................ 22 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 22 The Uniting Church .................................................................................................... 23 The Uniting Church as an Organization .................................................................... 36 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 68 Chapter 3: Scenario Planning ................................................................................................. 69 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 69 Thinking About the Future ......................................................................................... 69 “Thinking About the Unthinkable” .............................................................................. 90 Scenario Planning ..................................................................................................... 97 Examples of Scenario Planning............................................................................... 104 Australia’s Aging Futures ......................................................................................... 109 Why Isn’t Greater Use Made of Scenario Planning? ............................................... 113 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 121 The Four Scenarios in Diagram Form .................................................................................. 123 Chapter 4: Introduction to the Four Scenarios ...................................................................... 124 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 124 Process .................................................................................................................... 125 Research by Rev Dr John Bodycomb ..................................................................... 130 Chapter 5: Scenario 1: “Word And Deed” ............................................................................. 140 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 140 Drivers ..................................................................................................................... 142 Scenario ................................................................................................................... 145 Implications for the Uniting Church ......................................................................... 151 Indicators ................................................................................................................. 160 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 160 Chapter 6: Scenario 2: “Secular Welfare” ........................................................................ 161 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 161 Drivers ..................................................................................................................... 162 Scenario ................................................................................................................... 175 Implications for the Uniting Church ......................................................................... 182 Indicators ................................................................................................................. 193 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 194 ii Chapter 7: Scenario 3: “Return to the Early Church” ............................................................ 195 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 195 The Drivers .............................................................................................................. 196 Scenario ................................................................................................................... 238 Implications .............................................................................................................. 244 Indicators ................................................................................................................. 246 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 247 Chapter 8: Scenario 4: “Recessional” ................................................................................... 249 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 249 The Drivers .............................................................................................................. 252 The Constantinian Paradigm ................................................................................... 253 The Decline of the Constantinian Paradigm ............................................................ 266 The Uniting Church’s Gradual Demise .................................................................... 286 Scenario ................................................................................................................... 301 Indicators ................................................................................................................. 305 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 307 Chapter 9: Where to from Here? .......................................................................................... 310 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 310 Back to the Structure ............................................................................................... 311 Communications Plan .............................................................................................. 315 The Process of Change ........................................................................................... 323 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 328 Appendix: Scenarios on the Future of Non-Governmental Organizations ........................... 330 Summary of Remarks .............................................................................................. 330 How Can an NGO Respond to “Recessional” Indicators? ...................................... 335 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................
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