What Do We (And Others) Mean by “The Terms of Trade”?
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BIS Working Papers No 136 the Price Level, Relative Prices and Economic Stability: Aspects of the Interwar Debate by David Laidler* Monetary and Economic Department
BIS Working Papers No 136 The price level, relative prices and economic stability: aspects of the interwar debate by David Laidler* Monetary and Economic Department September 2003 * University of Western Ontario Abstract Recent financial instability has called into question the sufficiency of low inflation as a goal for monetary policy. This paper discusses interwar literature bearing on this question. It begins with theories of the cycle based on the quantity theory, and their policy prescription of price stability supported by lender of last resort activities in the event of crises, arguing that their neglect of fluctuations in investment was a weakness. Other approaches are then taken up, particularly Austrian theory, which stressed the banking system’s capacity to generate relative price distortions and forced saving. This theory was discredited by its association with nihilistic policy prescriptions during the Great Depression. Nevertheless, its core insights were worthwhile, and also played an important part in Robertson’s more eclectic account of the cycle. The latter, however, yielded activist policy prescriptions of a sort that were discredited in the postwar period. Whether these now need re-examination, or whether a low-inflation regime, in which the authorities stand ready to resort to vigorous monetary expansion in the aftermath of asset market problems, is adequate to maintain economic stability is still an open question. BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. -
THE OECD-WTO BALANCED TRADE in SERVICES DATABASE (BPM6 Edition)
1 THE OECD-WTO BALANCED TRADE IN SERVICES DATABASE (BPM6 edition) Antonella Liberatore (OECD), Steen Wettstein (WTO)1 January 2021 Complete, consistent and balanced bilateral trade in services statistics are vital for the empirical analysis of international trade as well as for policy-making and trade negotiations. Unfortunately, such data are not readily available. This paper presents the work of OECD and WTO to build an updated version of the Balanced Trade in Services (BaTIS) dataset, a complete and consistent trade in services matrix to serve as input for the compilation of the TiVA Inter-Country Input-Output Tables and as a tool for the analysis of trade patterns in general. This second edition of BaTIS provides annual data for 2005-2019, covering 202 economies, broken down by the 12 main EBOPS 2010 service categories. This paper accompanies the dataset and describes its compilation methodology in detail, including the collection and cleaning of the reported data, the different methodologies used to estimate missing information, and the final balancing of the export and import flows. 1 This contribution reflects a description of a methodology and does not represent the position or opinions of OECD, WTO or their respective Members, nor the official position of any staff members. The definition of geographical territories in this report is merely statistical and does not imply an expression of opinion by the OECD or the WTO Secretariat concerning the status of any country or territory, the delimitation of its frontiers, its official name, nor the rights and obligations of any WTO member in respect of WTO agreements. -
Which Developmentalism
1 Which developmentalism? A Keynesian-Institutionalist proposal Fernando Ferrari Filho Professor of Economics at Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul and Researcher at National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, Brazil. [email protected] Pedro Cezar Dutra Fonseca Professor of Economics at Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul and Researcher at National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, Brazil. [email protected] Abstract: Academic discussion of Brazil’s economic growth is currently framed in terms of export-led growth and wage-led growth, identified, respectively, with the new- developmentalism and the social-developmentalism approaches. This article presents a Keynesian-Institutionalist proposal to the Brazilian economy based on a wage-led regime without neglecting the long run balance of payment on current account requirement to ensure macroeconomic stability in the Brazilian economy. Keywords: New-developmentalism, social-developmentalism, Keynesian- Institutionalist, wage-led, profit-led and export-led growths. JEL Codes: B, B5. 1 Introduction While priority was given to monetary stability during the 1980s and 1990s, economic growth has gradually been finding its way back to both theoretical economic debate and economic policy discussions in Brazil since the 2000s. This has been due partly, on the one hand, to the election of various governments critical of neoliberalism in Latin America and, on the other hand, to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, which restored interventionism to the agenda, -
Monetary Policy, Relative Prices and Inflation Rate: an Evaluation Based on New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the U.S
Monetary policy, relative prices and inflation rate: an evaluation based on New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the U.S. economy Tito Belchior Silva Moreira* Department of economy, Catholic University of Brasilia, Brazil: [email protected] Mario Jorge C. Mendonça Department of economics, Institute for Applied Economic Research, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: [email protected] Adolfo Sachsida Department of economics, Institute for Applied Economic Research, Brasília, Brazil: [email protected] Paulo Roberto Amorim Loureiro Department of economics, University of Brasilia, Brasília, Brazil: [email protected] Abstract This paper investigates the direct impact of monetary policy on variation to the relative prices and, in turn, the direct effect of the change in relative prices on the inflation rate considering the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). Thus, we analyze the indirect impact of the change of Federal Funds Rate on the inflation rate through the change in relative prices. We use GMM with instrumental variables to estimate several systems of two equations for the U.S. economy based on quarterly time-series from 1975 to 2015. The empirical results show that a change of the Funds Rate has a direct effect on change in relative prices and that, in turn, affects indirectly the inflation rate, through the change in relative prices. Hence, change in the relative prices affects directly the inflation rate via NKPC. In this context, variations of relative prices can be interpreted as a transmission channel of monetary policy. Furthermore, there are empirical evidences that the change of relative prices Granger-cause the inflation rate. Key words: Monetary policy, relative prices, inflation rate, NKPC, U.S. -
Lecture 10 2-18 Outline and Slides 0.Pdf
Economics 2 Professor Christina Romer Spring 2016 Professor David Romer LECTURE 10 INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND TRADE POLICY February 18, 2016 I. OVERVIEW II. REVIEW OF COMPLETE SPECIALIZATION A. Example of the United States and China B. Terms of trade and world prices III. INCOMPLETE SPECIALIZATION A. Changing opportunity cost within each country B. Optimal level of specialization C. Consumption possibilities with trade IV. SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE A. Export good B. Import good V. WELFARE AND EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF TRADE A. Welfare analysis of trade 1. Export good 2. Import good B. Employment effects of trade VI. TRADE POLICY A. Some definitions B. Effects of a tariff C. Welfare analysis of a tariff D. Possible arguments for protection Economics 2 Christina Romer Spring 2016 David Romer LECTURE 10 International Trade and Trade Policy February 18, 2016 Announcements • Midterm 1 Logistics: • Tuesday, February 23rd, 3:30–5:00 • Sections 102, 104, 107, 108 (GSIs Pablo Muñoz and David Green) go to 245 Li Ka Shing Center (corner of Oxford and Berkeley Way). • Everyone else come to usual room (2050 VLSB). • You do not need a blue book; just a pen. • You also do not need a watch or phone. Announcements (continued) • Collecting the Exams: • If you finish before 4:45, you may quietly pack up and bring your exam to the front. • After 4:45, stay seated. • We will collect all of the exams by passing them to the nearest aisle. • Please don’t get up until all of the exams are collected. • Academic honesty: Behave with integrity. -
The Ricardian Model
Chapter 3 Labor Productivity and Comparative Advantage: The Ricardian Model Copyright © 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Preview • Opportunity costs and comparative advantage • Production possibilities • Relative supply, relative demand & relative prices • Trade possibilities and gains from trade • Wages and trade • Misconceptions about comparative advantage • Transportation costs and non-traded goods • Empirical evidence Copyright © 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-2 Introduction • Sources of differences across countries that lead to gains from trade: – The Ricardian model (Chapter 3) examines differences in the productivity of labor (due to differences in technology) between countries. – The Heckscher-Ohlin model (Chapter 5) examines differences in labor, labor skills, physical capital, land, or other factors of production between countries. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-3 Ricardian Model Assumptions 1. Two countries: domestic and foreign. 2. Two goods: wine and cheese. 3. Labor is the only resource needed for production. 4. Labor productivity is constant. 5. Labor productivity varies across countries due to differences in technology. 6. The supply of labor in each country is constant. 7. Labor markets are competitive. 8. Workers are mobile across sectors. Copyright © 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-4 Comparative Advantage • Suppose that the domestic country has a comparative advantage in cheese production: its opportunity cost of producing cheese is lower than in the foreign country. * * aLC /aLW < a LC /a LW When the domestic country increases cheese production, it reduces wine production less than the foreign country does because the domestic unit labor requirement of cheese production is low compared to that of wine production. -
Underestimating Savings and Investment in an Open Economy
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Research Papers in Economics WP-2007-015 Data and Definitions: Underestimating Savings and Investment in an Open Economy Ashima Goyal Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai October 2007 Data and Definitions: Underestimating Savings and Investment in an Open Economy1 Ashima Goyal Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR) General Arun Kumar Vaidya Marg Goregaon (E), Mumbai- 400065, INDIA Email: [email protected] Abstract This note clarifies definitions and derives from first principles the relationship between investment, domestic and foreign savings in order to show that there is underestimation of investment and foreign savings given conceptual macroeconomic definitions and Indian practice. Indian national accounts report and use gross domestic savings but the measure of capital inflows used with it is the one appropriate for gross national savings. The degree of underestimation is shown using recent data and implications drawn from the errors. Key words: gross domestic and national savings, capital formation, national accounts JEL Code(s): E21, E22, F36, O47 1 The author thanks Atul Sarma and Raghbendra Jha for comments and T.S.Ananthi for help with the tables. 2 Data and definitions: Underestimating Savings and Investment in an Open Economy Ashima Goyal The Indian statistical and measurement system set up was advanced for its time and place. Experts nurtured it carefully. But innovation was required to cut through complexities due to underdevelopment and to lack of data for the large unorganized sectors. Approximations are particularly marked in the estimation of savings and investment and where the open economy impinges on the two. -
GLOSSARY of INTERNATIONAL TRADE TERMS 2016 Guide
CALIFORNIA FASHION ASSOCIATION 444 South Flower Street, 37th Floor · Los Angeles, CA 90071 ·ph. 213.688.6288 ·fax 213.688.6290 Email: [email protected] Website: www.californiafashionassociation.org GLOSSARY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE TERMS 2016 Guide Sponsored By: Prepared by: CALIFORNIA FASHION ASSOCIATION 444 South Flower Street, 37th Floor, Los Angeles, CA 90071 Phone: 213-688-6288, Fax: 213-688-6290 [email protected] | www.californiafashionassociation.org 1 CALIFORNIA FASHION ASSOCIATION 444 South Flower Street, 37th Floor · Los Angeles, CA 90071 ·ph. 213.688.6288 ·fax 213.688.6290 Email: [email protected] Website: www.californiafashionassociation.org THE VOICE OF THE CALIFORNIA INDUSTRY The California Fashion Association is the forum organized to address the issues of concern to our industry. Manufacturers, contractors, suppliers, educational institutions, allied associations and all apparel-related businesses benefit. Fashion is the largest manufacturing sector in Southern California. Nearly 13,548 firms are involved in fashion-related businesses in Los Angeles and Orange County; it is a $49.3-billion industry. The apparel and textile industry of the region employs approximately 128,148 people, directly and indirectly in Los Angeles and surrounding counties. The California Fashion Association is the clearinghouse for information and representation. We are a collective voice focused on the industry's continued growth, prosperity and competitive advantage, directed toward the promotion of global recognition for the "Created in California" -
Open Economy Macroeconomics Lecture Notes Department of Economics BOGAZICI EC 208
Open Economy Macroeconomics Lecture Notes Department of Economics BOGAZICI EC 208 Ozan Hatipoglu Department of Economics, Bogazici University Spring 2018 Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring 2018 1 / 1 Role 1: Transfers purchasing power from one currency to another and allows for international transactions. Role 2: Provides credit for foreign trade Role 3: Facilitates hedging against currency shocks Special Characteristics 1: Largest market in the world in terms of trade volume (over $6 trillion daily in spot, forward and swaps) Special Characteristics 2: 24 hours trading and no trading limit Special Characteristics 3: No commissions by brokers but bid-ask spread required by dealers Foreign Exchange (FX) Markets -Definition, Functions and Features Definition: A market where national currencies are bought and sold Ozan Hatipoglu (Department of Economics) Open Economy Macroeconomics Spring 2018 2 / 1 Role 2: Provides credit for foreign trade Role 3: Facilitates hedging against currency shocks Special Characteristics 1: Largest market in the world in terms of trade volume (over $6 trillion daily in spot, forward and swaps) Special Characteristics 2: 24 hours trading and no trading limit Special Characteristics 3: No commissions by brokers but bid-ask spread required by dealers Foreign Exchange (FX) Markets -Definition, Functions and Features Definition: A market where national currencies are bought and sold Role 1: Transfers purchasing power from one currency to another and allows for international transactions. -
Centralisation of Wage Bargaining and Macroeconomic Performance .A Survey
OECD Economic Studies No . 21. Winter 1993 CENTRALISATION OF WAGE BARGAINING AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE .A SURVEY Lars Calmfors CONTENTS Introduction ................................................ 162 I. lnternalisation effects and centralisation ....................... 163 II. The hump-shape hypothesis and the effect of competitive pressures 165 A . The basic theoretical argument .......................... 165 B . Extensions to the basic model ........................... 167 C . Centralisation and decentralisation in practice ............... 170 Ill. Different dimensions of decentralisation ....................... 172 A . Decentralisation according to profession ................... 172 B . Centralisation by region ................................ 174 C . The extent of unionisation .............................. 175 IV. Multilevel bargaining ...................................... 176 V . Empirical research ....................................... 179 A . Studies of centralisation and macroeconomic performance ..... 179 B. Centralisation and parameters in wage and price equations .... 180 C . The contribution of empirical research ..................... 181 Vl . Conclusions ............................................ 182 Bibliography ................................................ 187 ~~ An extended version of this paper is available as OECD Economics Department Working Papers. No. 131. The author is from the Institute for International Economic Studies. Stockholm University. He is grateful to Jan Broms. Ann Chadeau. Jsrgen Elmeskov. -
Oecd Development Centre
OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 147 (Formerly Technical Paper No. 147) CHINA’S UNFINISHED OPEN-ECONOMY REFORMS: LIBERALISATION OF SERVICES by Kiichiro Fukasaku, Yu Ma and Qiumei Yang Research programme on: Reform and Growth of Large Developing Countries March 1999 CD/DOC(99)4 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................ 3 RÉSUMÉ .................................................................................................................. 4 SUMMARY ............................................................................................................... 4 PREFACE ................................................................................................................ 6 I. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................... 7 II. OPENING UP THE SERVICE MARKETS ........................................................ 11 III. POLITICAL ECONOMY OF LIBERALISATION OF SERVICES ....................... 17 IV. CONCLUDING REMARKS ............................................................................... 23 ANNEX: OPEN-ECONOMY REFORMS SINCE 1994 ............................................. 25 NOTES AND REFERENCES ................................................................................... 32 BIBLIOGRAPHY ...................................................................................................... 35 ANNEX TABLE 1. REGULATIONS ON THE OPENING-UP OF THE SERVICES SECTOR IN -
On Using Relative Prices to Measure Capital-Specific Technological
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES On Using Relative Prices to Measure Capital-Specific Technological Progress Milton Marquis Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Florida State University and Bharat Trehan Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco March 2005 Working Paper 2005-02 http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2005/wp05-02bk.pdf The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. On Using Relative Prices to Measure Capital-Specific Technological Progress Milton Marquis∗ Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Florida State University and Bharat Trehan∗∗ Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco March 2005 Abstract Recently, Greenwood, Hercowitz and Krusell (GHK) have identified the rela- tive price of (new) capital with capital-specific technological progress. In a two- sector growth model, however, the relative price of capital equals the ratio of the productivity processes in the two sectors. Restrictions from this model are used with data on wages and prices to construct measures of productivity growth and test the GHK identification, which is easily rejected by the data. This raises ques- tions about various measures of the contribution that capital-specific technological progress might make to the economy. This identification also induces a negative correlation between the resulting measures of capital-specific and economy-wide technological change, which potentially explains why papers employing this iden- tification find that capital-specific technological change accelerated in the mid- 1970s.