CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo Senter for klimaforskning Developing Strategies for Climate Change: The UNEP Country Studies on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Assessment Report 2000:2 ISSN: 0804-4562 United Nations Environment Programme Karen O´Brien, Editor Universitetet i Oslo University of Oslo CICERO Report 2000:2 Developing Strategies for Climate Change: The UNEP Country Studies on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Assessment Karen O’Brien, editor July 2000 United Nations Environment Programme CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research P.O. Box 1129 Blindern N-0318 Oslo, Norway Phone: +47 22 85 87 50 Fax: +47 22 85 87 51 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.cicero.uio.no CICERO Senter for klimaforskning P.B. 1129 Blindern, 0318 Oslo Telefon: 22 85 87 50 Faks: 22 85 87 51 E-post: [email protected] Nett: www.cicero.uio.no Abstract This report summarizes four country studies that were undertaken as part of the UNEP “Country Case Studies on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Assessment.” These studies, carried out in Antigua and Barbuda, Cameroon, Estonia, and Pakistan, were funded by the Global Environmental Facility and managed as a project of the UNEP Atmosphere Unit in Nairobi, Kenya. These country studies illustrate the importance of adopting a flexible approach to the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptations. While the UNEP Handbook on Methods served as a common reference for the study teams, each team found it necessary to adapt these methods – sometimes to a considerable extent – to meet the specific needs of the country. Moreover, two of the country studies (Estonia and Pakistan) were able to build on previous work on climate impacts, while the other two (Antigua and Barbuda and Cameroon) broke new ground. The studies provide a basic foundation for understanding the potential impacts of climate change and the adaptation measures necessary to address them. They indicate the scope of the problems in each of the countries studied, as well as the direction adaptation studies should take. Most importantly, they demonstrate that while each country has a unique set of problems and strategies, all countries will benefit from long-term sustainable development. Key words: Climate impacts, adaptation, vulnerability, Antigua and Barbuda, Cameroon, Estonia, Pakistan Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES III LIST OF FIGURES IV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY V ACKNOWLEDGMENTS VII 1 THE UNEP COUNTRY STUDIES 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.2 BACKGROUND FOR THE COUNTRY STUDIES PROGRAM 1 1.3 METHODOLOGY 2 1.4 THE COUNTRIES 4 1.5 OVERVIEW OF RESULTS 7 1.6 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES 9 1.7 CONCLUSIONS 10 2 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA 13 2.1 INTRODUCTION 13 2.2 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS 15 2.3 BASELINE SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS 17 2.4 HUMAN SETTLEMENTS AND TOURISM 19 2.5 COASTAL ZONES 22 2.6 FISHERIES SECTOR 28 2.7 AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 31 2.8 WATER RESOURCES 34 2.9 HUMAN HEALTH 42 2.10 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES 45 3 CAMEROON 49 3.1 INTRODUCTION 49 3.2 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS 51 3.3 BASELINE SCENARIOS 53 3.4 COASTAL ZONE 54 3.5 SUDANO-SAHELIAN ZONE 55 3.6 MANGROVES 57 3.7 COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE 62 3.8 BIODIVERSITY 63 3.9 HUMAN HEALTH 64 3.10 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES 65 4 ESTONIA 71 4.1 INTRODUCTION 71 4.2 HISTORICAL CLIMATE CHANGES IN ESTONIA 73 4.3 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR ESTONIA 79 4.4 AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS 83 4.5 FOREST IMPACTS 88 4.6 WATER RESOURCES 93 4.7 LAND DRAINAGE 102 4.8 ADAPTATION 103 i 5 PAKISTAN 107 5.1 INTRODUCTION 107 5.2 SOCIOECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF PAKISTAN 110 5.3 BASELINE SCENARIOS 111 5.4 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS 119 5.5 WATER RESOURCES 121 5.6 IMPACTS ON THE INDUS BASIN 122 5.7 AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS 129 5.8 IRRIGATION SYSTEMS 132 5.9 FORESTRY 133 5.10 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE 137 6 CONCLUSIONS 139 REFERENCES 141 APPENDIX I: COUNTRY STUDY TEAMS 147 APPENDIX II: CLIMATE MODELS 151 ii List of Tables Table 2.1 Hurricane Scenarios for Antigua and Barbuda 16 Table 2.2 Drought Scenarios for Antigua and Barbuda.......................................................................................16 Table 2.3 Overview of baseline scenarios by 2021, with no change in climate................................................22 Table 2.4 Vulnerability assessment of different climate drivers for 2100.........................................................22 Table 2.5 Summary of the vulnerability of the different areas............................................................................27 Table 2.6 Yield reduction under rainfed conditions at Coolidge (clay soil conditions)..................................36 Table 2.7 Current water resources and water supply and demand situation ....................................................37 Table 2.8 Prediction of water production cost (million USD/year)..................................................................37 Table 2.9 Tropical vector-borne diseases...............................................................................................................43 Table 3.1 Projected mean global temperature increases and sea level rise from 1990 levels based on the IPCC IS92a emission scenario using MAGICC...........................................................................................52 Table 3.2 Projected annual temperature and rainfall changes for the coastal zone based on the IS92a emission scenario ..............................................................................................................................................53 Table 3.3 Projected annual temperature and rainfall changes for the northern region based on the IS92a emission scenario ..............................................................................................................................................53 Table 3.4 Projected changes in shrimp catch due to rainfall changes................................................................60 Table 3.5 Vulnerability assessment of selected fishing villages in the Cameroon Estuary Mangrove due to sea level rise........................................................................................................................................................61 Table 3.6 Vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and human settlements, based on expert judgment.........62 Table 3.7 Property and infrastructure at risk to inundation due to SLR 10 by 2050 ......................................63 Table 3.8 Projection of fauna population with climate change ..........................................................................64 Table 4.1 Change in the GDP and inflation compared to the previous year...................................................73 Table 4.2 Average ice-break in Palmse 1706-1996................................................................................................76 Table 4.3 Mean summer air temperature in Tallinn 1731–1996 (°C) ................................................................76 Table 4.4 Projected change for continental Estonia from 2036–2065 to 1961–1990.....................................81 Table 4.5 Meteorologically possible yields relative to the yields for the period 1965–1996, calculated for the counties of Estonia according to different climate scenarios..............................................................85 Table 4.6 Average dates for the beginning and end of the possible potato vegetation period and the average optimum limits of potato cultivation...............................................................................................86 Table 4.7 Agroclimatic indicators of the water regime regulation efficiency of soils of barley crops under different microclimate conditions ..................................................................................................................87 Table 4.8 Dynamics of urgent clear cutting areas as a consequence of damage by root rot (hectares/percent).............................................................................................................................................93 Table 4.9 Measured runoff area in Estonia (km2).................................................................................................95 Table 4.10 Relative changes in yearly, vegetation-period, and cold-season evapotranspiration rates in different GCM scenarios for the watershed of the Väike-Emajõgi..........................................................96 Table 4.11 Per cent change in annual runoff according to the climate change scenario................................98 Table 4.12 Main characteristics of drained areas (01.01.1996) by counties (thousand ha)...........................102 Table 5.1 Integrated scenarios................................................................................................................................112 Table 5.2 Growth in manufacturing (value added).............................................................................................114 Table 5.3 Demand for selected agricultural commodities in Pakistan (1000 tons)........................................117 Table 5.4 Production projections of major agricultural commodities in Pakistan (1000 tons) ...................117 Table 5.5 Suggested agricultural growth rates for various commodities to achieve self-sufficiency ..........118 Table 5.6 Summary of regional, seasonal and monthly inflows and variations..............................................124 Table 5.7 Monthly change from baseline (%)......................................................................................................124