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3-2015 Implications of the Demise of “Fact” in Political Discourse Kathleen Hall Jamieson University of Pennsylvania, [email protected]

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Recommended Citation Jamieson, K. H. (2015). Implications of the Demise of “Fact” in Political Discourse. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 159 (1), 66-84. Retrieved from https://repository.upenn.edu/asc_papers/739

This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/asc_papers/739 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Implications of the Demise of “Fact” in Political Discourse

Disciplines Communication | Social and Behavioral Sciences | Social Influence and Political Communication

This journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/asc_papers/739 Implications of the Demise of “Fact” Implications of the Demise of “Fact” in Political Discourse1 in Political Discourse1

KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON Director, Annenberg Public Policy Center Director, Annenberg Public Policy Center Elizabeth Ware Packard Professor Elizabeth Ware Packard Professor Annenberg School for Communication Annenberg School for Communication University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania

n 2004, an aide to then-President George W. Bush smugly informed n 2004, an aide to then-President George W. Bush smugly informed journalist Ron Suskind that the “reality based” community and the journalist Ron Suskind that the “reality based” community and the Ireporters within it had been rendered largely irrelevant by those like Ireporters within it had been rendered largely irrelevant by those like the informant who create their “own reality.” And “while you’re the informant who create their “own reality.” And “while you’re studying that reality,” the aide added, “we’ll act again, creating other studying that reality,” the aide added, “we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just out. We’re history’s actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”2 What follows is a tentative exploration of the study what we do.”2 What follows is a tentative exploration of the implications of the sort of reality-creation the Bush aide touts. My implications of the sort of reality-creation the Bush aide touts. My focus on past fabrications assumes that understanding the conjurers’ focus on past fabrications assumes that understanding the conjurers’ wiles is an essential step in undercutting them. Two stratagems recur in wiles is an essential step in undercutting them. Two stratagems recur in the four cases I will outline: (1) transforming palatable deceptions into the four cases I will outline: (1) transforming palatable deceptions into presumably powerful ads and (2) drowning any corrections offered by presumably powerful ads and (2) drowning any corrections offered by opponents or expert knowledge-certifying communities in a wash of opponents or expert knowledge-certifying communities in a wash of manipulative messaging. These means of controlling the communica- manipulative messaging. These means of controlling the communica- tion environment increase the likelihood that the so-called reality tion environment increase the likelihood that the so-called reality creators will be able to highjack the issue agenda, manipulate the creators will be able to highjack the issue agenda, manipulate the contours of legislation, foreclose desirable policy options, and thwart contours of legislation, foreclose desirable policy options, and thwart the public will. the public will.

1 Read on 27 April 2013 at the Spring General Meeting of the American Philosophical 1 Read on 27 April 2013 at the Spring General Meeting of the American Philosophical Society. Society. 2 Ron Suskind, “Faith, Certainty and the Presidency of George W. Bush.” The New York 2 Ron Suskind, “Faith, Certainty and the Presidency of George W. Bush.” The New York Times (2014 October 17). Accessed at http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/magazine/ Times (2014 October 17). Accessed at http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/magazine/ 17BUSH.html?_r=0 17BUSH.html?_r=0

PROCEEDINGS OF THE AMERICAN PHILOSOPHICAL SOCIETY VOL. 159, NO. 1, MARCH 2015

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The Need for Institutions That Certify and are The Need for Institutions That Certify and are Custodians of the Knowable Custodians of the Knowable As theorists from Sextus Empiricus3 to Wittgenstein4 have observed, As theorists from Sextus Empiricus3 to Wittgenstein4 have observed, arguments are grounded in presupposed premises that serve as the arguments are grounded in presupposed premises that serve as the foundation or point of departure for the case being made. To thwart foundation or point of departure for the case being made. To thwart that process, one need only dispute a primal premise or challenge the that process, one need only dispute a primal premise or challenge the integrity of offered evidence. Lacking the time, the inclination, and the integrity of offered evidence. Lacking the time, the inclination, and the expertise to do otherwise, audiences license some statements to ground expertise to do otherwise, audiences license some statements to ground arguments not because they understand their empirical basis but arguments not because they understand their empirical basis but because they trust the integrity and impartiality of a certifying institu- because they trust the integrity and impartiality of a certifying institu- tion. As Dewey noted, traditionally, such institutions have not been tion. As Dewey noted, traditionally, such institutions have not been responsible for framing and executing policies; rather, their mission is responsible for framing and executing policies; rather, their mission is making known the facts on which the policies depend.5 making known the facts on which the policies depend.5 When the public accepts the knowledge-certifying role of institu- When the public accepts the knowledge-certifying role of institu- tions such as the Government Accountability Office (GAO), the Centers tions such as the Government Accountability Office (GAO), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Department of Labor Statis- for Disease Control and Prevention, the Department of Labor Statis- tics, and the National Academy of Sciences, these entities are able to tics, and the National Academy of Sciences, these entities are able to serve as custodians of “the knowable,” guarantors of the building serve as custodians of “the knowable,” guarantors of the building blocks on which policy decisions can be constructed. Bolstering the blocks on which policy decisions can be constructed. Bolstering the credibility of such knowledge-certifying institutions is the public’s credibility of such knowledge-certifying institutions is the public’s confidence that the conclusions offered are produced using transparent confidence that the conclusions offered are produced using transparent methods and are subject to rigorous forms of review within a commu- methods and are subject to rigorous forms of review within a commu- nity whose norms protect its integrity (Figure 1). nity whose norms protect its integrity (Figure 1). Because two of journalism’s key functions are (1) holding those Because two of journalism’s key functions are (1) holding those who wield power accountable and (2) translating key findings of the who wield power accountable and (2) translating key findings of the knowledge custodians for the citizenry, the press, in this model, is knowledge custodians for the citizenry, the press, in this model, is responsible for not only conveying what expert communities know, but responsible for not only conveying what expert communities know, but also exposing instances in which knowledge custodians fail to live up also exposing instances in which knowledge custodians fail to live up to their ideals and uncovering cases in which policymakers or others to their ideals and uncovering cases in which policymakers or others misrepresent their findings. Politifact, a Pulitzer Prize winning project misrepresent their findings. Politifact, a Pulitzer Prize winning project of the Tampa Bay Times, performed this accountability function when of the Tampa Bay Times, performed this accountability function when it contextualized a presidential candidate’s declaration that “[t]he it contextualized a presidential candidate’s declaration that “[t]he

3 Cf. Sextus Empiricus, Outlines of Pyrrhonism, Book I, 6, trans. Sanford Etheridge, in 3 Cf. Sextus Empiricus, Outlines of Pyrrhonism, Book I, 6, trans. Sanford Etheridge, in Sextus Empiricus: Selections from the Major Writings on Scepticism, Man, and God, ed. Sextus Empiricus: Selections from the Major Writings on Scepticism, Man, and God, ed. Phillip Hallie (Indianapolis: Hackett, 1985). Phillip Hallie (Indianapolis: Hackett, 1985). 4 To borrow from Wittgenstein, “[a]t the foundation of well-founded belief lies belief 4 To borrow from Wittgenstein, “[a]t the foundation of well-founded belief lies belief that is not founded” (Ludwig Wittgenstein, On Certainty, trans. Denis Paul and G. E. M. that is not founded” (Ludwig Wittgenstein, On Certainty, trans. Denis Paul and G. E. M. Anscombe [Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1969]: 33e) and that “[t]he language-game is only Anscombe [Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1969]: 33e) and that “[t]he language-game is only possible if one trusts something . . . ” (509). Each language-game is different, but each one possible if one trusts something . . . ” (509). Each language-game is different, but each one contains a foundation of stand-fast statements that are taken on trust and not placed under contains a foundation of stand-fast statements that are taken on trust and not placed under scrutiny. scrutiny. 5 This insight (p. 109) is drawn from Michael Schudson’s valuable chapter “The Trouble 5 This insight (p. 109) is drawn from Michael Schudson’s valuable chapter “The Trouble with Experts—and Why Democracies Need Them,” in Why Democracies Need An Unlovable with Experts—and Why Democracies Need Them,” in Why Democracies Need An Unlovable Press (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2006): 108–25. Press (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2006): 108–25.

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Figure 1. Figure 1.

weight of the evidence [on climate change] is that most of it, maybe all weight of the evidence [on climate change] is that most of it, maybe all of it, is because of natural causes . . . . There’s lots of layers to it. But at of it, is because of natural causes . . . . There’s lots of layers to it. But at least as to any potential man-made contribution to it, it’s fair to say the least as to any potential man-made contribution to it, it’s fair to say the science is in dispute.” Instead, Politifact reported: science is in dispute.” Instead, Politifact reported: A 2010 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy A 2010 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences—the official publication of the United States National of Sciences—the official publication of the United States National Academy of Sciences—found that out of 1,372 climate researchers Academy of Sciences—found that out of 1,372 climate researchers surveyed, approximately 97 to 98 percent of those actively publishing surveyed, approximately 97 to 98 percent of those actively publishing in the field said they believe human beings are causing the climate in the field said they believe human beings are causing the climate change . . . . change . . . . An earlier survey published in the 2009 issue of Eos—a publication of An earlier survey published in the 2009 issue of Eos—a publication of the American Geophysical Union—surveyed scientists from a wide the American Geophysical Union—surveyed scientists from a wide range of disciplines (approximately 3,146) and asked: “Do you think range of disciplines (approximately 3,146) and asked: “Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?” Approximately 82 percent of the surveyed global temperatures?” Approximately 82 percent of the surveyed scientists answered yes to this question. Of those climate change scientists answered yes to this question. Of those climate change specialists surveyed, 97.4 percent answered yes to this question.6 specialists surveyed, 97.4 percent answered yes to this question.6

6 “Do Scientists Disagree About Global Warming?” Politifact. Last modified 2011 6 “Do Scientists Disagree About Global Warming?” Politifact. Last modified 2011 August 11. Accessed at http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/aug/14/ August 11. Accessed at http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/aug/14/ tim-pawlenty/do-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/ tim-pawlenty/do-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/

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Because they serve as custodians of the knowable, certifying institu- Because they serve as custodians of the knowable, certifying institu- tions, including the press, as Schudson notes, are able to “clarify the tions, including the press, as Schudson notes, are able to “clarify the grounds of public debate and so improve the capacity of both legisla- grounds of public debate and so improve the capacity of both legisla- tors and the general public to engage effectively in democratic decision tors and the general public to engage effectively in democratic decision making.”7 making.”7

Partisan Attacks on Knowledge-Certifying Institutions Partisan Attacks on Knowledge-Certifying Institutions As I argue at greater length elsewhere,8 the model in which the jour- As I argue at greater length elsewhere,8 the model in which the jour- nalist acts as a custodian and translator of the best available knowl- nalist acts as a custodian and translator of the best available knowl- edge and holds partisans in the policy arena accountable for distortions edge and holds partisans in the policy arena accountable for distortions is fractured in a media environment in which ideologues create and is fractured in a media environment in which ideologues create and partisan media relay compelling but misleading constructions to the partisan media relay compelling but misleading constructions to the like-minded. like-minded. One tactic used to undermine the authority of knowledge-certifying One tactic used to undermine the authority of knowledge-certifying institutions vests ideologically driven hirelings with forms of institutions vests ideologically driven hirelings with forms of institutional self-identification that mimic those of established scientific institutional self-identification that mimic those of established scientific organizations. Another move impugns the knowledge custodians’ organizations. Another move impugns the knowledge custodians’ motives with charges that their dispassionate language and technical motives with charges that their dispassionate language and technical invocation of esoteric methods camouflage corruptive ideological invocation of esoteric methods camouflage corruptive ideological biases. Replete with detailed footnotes and elaborately constructed biases. Replete with detailed footnotes and elaborately constructed charts, these pseudo-scientific organization’s reports can then be pitted charts, these pseudo-scientific organization’s reports can then be pitted by partisans against those of legitimate groups. So, for example, a by partisans against those of legitimate groups. So, for example, a conservative advocate invokes the findings of an entity titling itself the conservative advocate invokes the findings of an entity titling itself the American College of Pediatricians to blunt the Meet the Press host’s American College of Pediatricians to blunt the Meet the Press host’s citation of a conclusion of the American Academy of Pediatrics. The citation of a conclusion of the American Academy of Pediatrics. The exchange took place between former Christian Coalition Director exchange took place between former Christian Coalition Director Ralph Reed and NBC’s David Gregory on 24 March 2013: Ralph Reed and NBC’s David Gregory on 24 March 2013: RALPH REED: RALPH REED: . . . The issue before the country is: Do we have a compelling interest . . . The issue before the country is: Do we have a compelling interest in strengthening and supporting the durable, enduring, and uniquely in strengthening and supporting the durable, enduring, and uniquely complementary and procreative union of a man and a woman? And— complementary and procreative union of a man and a woman? And— DAVID GREGORY: DAVID GREGORY: You look at divorce rates; I don’t know if “durable—” You look at divorce rates; I don’t know if “durable—” RALPH REED: RALPH REED: Well, no, the answer—that would be an argument for why we ought Well, no, the answer—that would be an argument for why we ought to strengthen it, not why we ought to throw— to strengthen it, not why we ought to throw— 7 Schudson, Why Democracies Need an Unlovable Press (2008), 118. 7 Schudson, Why Democracies Need an Unlovable Press (2008), 118. 8 K. H. Jamieson, and B. Hardy, “Leveraging Scientific Credibility about Arctic Sea Ice 8 K. H. Jamieson, and B. Hardy, “Leveraging Scientific Credibility about Arctic Sea Ice Trends in a Polarized Political Environment.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Trends in a Polarized Political Environment.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 11, no. 4 (2014): 13598–13605. Sciences 11, no. 4 (2014): 13598–13605.

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DAVID GREGORY: DAVID GREGORY: Let me get E. J.’s reaction— Let me get E. J.’s reaction— (OVERTALK) (OVERTALK) RALPH REED: RALPH REED: —the reason why is because it’s better for children, and all the social —the reason why is because it’s better for children, and all the social science shows that. science shows that. DAVID GREGORY: DAVID GREGORY: Although the American— Although the American— HILARY ROSEN: HILARY ROSEN: Academy of Pediatrics. Academy of Pediatrics. DAVID GREGORY: DAVID GREGORY: —Academy of Pediatrics disagrees. They think it’s good— —Academy of Pediatrics disagrees. They think it’s good— RALPH REED: RALPH REED: And the American College of Pediatricians came out the other way.9 And the American College of Pediatricians came out the other way.9 The ways in which pseudo authority is used to counterbalance the The ways in which pseudo authority is used to counterbalance the preponderance of evidence are illustrated as well by conservative media preponderance of evidence are illustrated as well by conservative media treatment of the two spring 2014 consensus documents: the UN treatment of the two spring 2014 consensus documents: the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) findings, and a Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) findings, and a creation that its sponsor, the “free market think tank” Heartland creation that its sponsor, the “free market think tank” Heartland Institute, called the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Institute, called the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). Because the latter was in the mix, The Wall Street Change (NIPCC). Because the latter was in the mix, The Wall Street Journal bent to its ideological bias and counter-balanced its account of Journal bent to its ideological bias and counter-balanced its account of the IPCC report’s finding that climate change is harming the earth’s the IPCC report’s finding that climate change is harming the earth’s systems with NIPCC’s alternative construction of reality: systems with NIPCC’s alternative construction of reality: Not everyone agreed with the [IPCC] report. A body known as the Not everyone agreed with the [IPCC] report. A body known as the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change on Monday Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change on Monday released a 1,062-page report citing studies done in the peer-reviewed released a 1,062-page report citing studies done in the peer-reviewed literature and came to different conclusions. literature and came to different conclusions. Its analysis found that higher carbon dioxide concentrations and rising Its analysis found that higher carbon dioxide concentrations and rising temperatures are causing “no net harm to the global environment or to temperatures are causing “no net harm to the global environment or to human health and often finds the opposite: net benefits to plants, human health and often finds the opposite: net benefits to plants, including important food crops, and to animals and human health.” 10 including important food crops, and to animals and human health.” 10

9 Meet the Press, 24 March 2013. Accessed at http://www.nbcnews.com/id/51308323/ 9 Meet the Press, 24 March 2013. Accessed at http://www.nbcnews.com/id/51308323/ ns/meet_the_press-transcripts/t/march-michael-bloomberg-wayne-lapierre-david-boies- ns/meet_the_press-transcripts/t/march-michael-bloomberg-wayne-lapierre-david-boies- richard-engel-ralph-reed-hilary-rosen-ej-dionne-david-brooks/#.VGPWwMkQfAk richard-engel-ralph-reed-hilary-rosen-ej-dionne-david-brooks/#.VGPWwMkQfAk 10 G. Naik, “Panel Reports Threat of Climate Change.” The Wall Street Journal (1 April 10 G. Naik, “Panel Reports Threat of Climate Change.” The Wall Street Journal (1 April 2014), A8. 2014), A8.

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Whereas The Wall Street Journal incorporated NIPCC claims into Whereas The Wall Street Journal incorporated NIPCC claims into an article on the IPCC report, FoxNews.com devoted a standalone an article on the IPCC report, FoxNews.com devoted a standalone piece to the NIPCC findings. Headlined “UN Finding on Climate piece to the NIPCC findings. Headlined “UN Finding on Climate Change is Just a Bunch of Hot Air, New Report Claims,” that Fox Change is Just a Bunch of Hot Air, New Report Claims,” that Fox News piece included a two-paragraph attack on the knowledge-certi- News piece included a two-paragraph attack on the knowledge-certi- fying capacity of the IPCC: fying capacity of the IPCC: . . . The IPCC’s report also states that climate change is forcing terres- . . . The IPCC’s report also states that climate change is forcing terres- trial, freshwater and marine species to shift their geographical ranges trial, freshwater and marine species to shift their geographical ranges and migration patterns. and migration patterns. But the Heartland Institute says the scientific community is under But the Heartland Institute says the scientific community is under tremendous financial and peer pressure to reach the conclusion that tremendous financial and peer pressure to reach the conclusion that global industry is damaging the environment. global industry is damaging the environment. “Ethical standards have been lowered, peer review has been corrupted, “Ethical standards have been lowered, peer review has been corrupted, and we can’t trust peers in our most prestigious journals anymore,” and we can’t trust peers in our most prestigious journals anymore,” Joe Bast, President and CEO of Heartland Institute, told Fox News.11 Joe Bast, President and CEO of Heartland Institute, told Fox News.11 This dismissal is one version of the undermining tactic alleging that This dismissal is one version of the undermining tactic alleging that the knowledge-certifying institutions have been corrupted by peer pres- the knowledge-certifying institutions have been corrupted by peer pres- sure, ideological bias, and self-interest. Employing an allied move, sure, ideological bias, and self-interest. Employing an allied move, conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh characterized some conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh characterized some climate science conclusions as “designed to scare people into supporting climate science conclusions as “designed to scare people into supporting Big Government. It’s designed to make people feel guilty for destroying Big Government. It’s designed to make people feel guilty for destroying the planet, so they’ll accept higher taxes and more punitive government the planet, so they’ll accept higher taxes and more punitive government proposals and regulations, all for absolution of sin for destroying the proposals and regulations, all for absolution of sin for destroying the planet.”12 planet.”12 Meanwhile, in the heat of the fall 2012 presidential campaign, Meanwhile, in the heat of the fall 2012 presidential campaign, former CEO of General Electric Jack Welch proclaimed without former CEO of General Electric Jack Welch proclaimed without evidence that the Obama campaign had manipulated the September evidence that the Obama campaign had manipulated the September 2012 Bureau of Labor Statistics job numbers.13 During the same elec- 2012 Bureau of Labor Statistics job numbers.13 During the same elec- tion cycle, Republican presidential-aspirant and former Speaker of the tion cycle, Republican presidential-aspirant and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich characterized the Congressional Budget Office House Newt Gingrich characterized the Congressional Budget Office as a “reactionary Socialist institution.”14 In none of these cases did the as a “reactionary Socialist institution.”14 In none of these cases did the

11 M. Tobin, “UN Finding on Climate Change is Just a Bunch of Hot Air, New Report 11 M. Tobin, “UN Finding on Climate Change is Just a Bunch of Hot Air, New Report Claims.” FoxNews.com (9 April 2014). Accessed at http://www.foxnews.com/ Claims.” FoxNews.com (9 April 2014). Accessed at http://www.foxnews.com/ science/2014/04/09/new-report-claims-un-findings-on-climate-change-is-just-bunch-hot-air/ science/2014/04/09/new-report-claims-un-findings-on-climate-change-is-just-bunch-hot-air/ 12 R. Limbaugh, “How We Saved a Biracial Tree—and Other Global Warming News.” 12 R. Limbaugh, “How We Saved a Biracial Tree—and Other Global Warming News.” The Rush Limbaugh Show (18 March 2014). Accessed at http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/ The Rush Limbaugh Show (18 March 2014). Accessed at http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/ daily/2014/03/18/quick_hits_page daily/2014/03/18/quick_hits_page 13 T. Catts, “GE Ex-CEO Takes on White House via Twitter Over Jobs Data.” Bloomberg 13 T. Catts, “GE Ex-CEO Takes on White House via Twitter Over Jobs Data.” Bloomberg (5 October 2012). Accessed at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-05/former-ge-ceo- (5 October 2012). Accessed at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-05/former-ge-ceo- jack-welch-says-white-house-manipulates-jobs-data.html jack-welch-says-white-house-manipulates-jobs-data.html 14 C. Riley, “Gingrich: CBO a ‘Reactionary Socialist Institution.” CNN Money (22 14 C. Riley, “Gingrich: CBO a ‘Reactionary Socialist Institution.” CNN Money (22 November 2011). Accessed at http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/21/news/economy/ November 2011). Accessed at http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/21/news/economy/ gingrich_cbo_socialism/ gingrich_cbo_socialism/

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attacker offer the evidence needed to warrant the conclusion that the attacker offer the evidence needed to warrant the conclusion that the expert institution had violated its standards. expert institution had violated its standards. In a similar vein, consultants on both the left and the right question In a similar vein, consultants on both the left and the right question the impartiality of fact-checking journalists who expose their the impartiality of fact-checking journalists who expose their duplicities, an ironic assault because these same campaigners routinely duplicities, an ironic assault because these same campaigners routinely re-circulate fact-checking articles documenting flaws in their opponents’ re-circulate fact-checking articles documenting flaws in their opponents’ assertions of fact. 15, 16 Such efforts to undermine journalists’ verification assertions of fact. 15, 16 Such efforts to undermine journalists’ verification and accountability functions occur in an environment in which both and accountability functions occur in an environment in which both conservatives and liberals are able to enwrap themselves in forms of conservatives and liberals are able to enwrap themselves in forms of media that selectively marshal evidence for their preferred side. media that selectively marshal evidence for their preferred side. One result is the emergence of “knowledge enclaves,” whose inhab- One result is the emergence of “knowledge enclaves,” whose inhab- itants subscribe to not only their own opinions but also their own facts. itants subscribe to not only their own opinions but also their own facts. So, for example, regular consumers of the progressive media differ So, for example, regular consumers of the progressive media differ from followers of Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, and the editorial pages from followers of Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, and the editorial pages of The Wall Street Journal not only in what they believe but also in of The Wall Street Journal not only in what they believe but also in what they know about the political world. In the presence of controls what they know about the political world. In the presence of controls for education and ideology, those in either the liberal or conservative for education and ideology, those in either the liberal or conservative enclave are more likely than consumers of traditional legacy media to enclave are more likely than consumers of traditional legacy media to embrace the deceptions trafficked by their respective ideological sides. embrace the deceptions trafficked by their respective ideological sides. Indeed, as my colleague Joseph Cappella and I showed in Echo Indeed, as my colleague Joseph Cappella and I showed in Echo Chamber (2008), individuals who rely on either conservative or liberal Chamber (2008), individuals who rely on either conservative or liberal media differ not only in their susceptibility to the deceptions of their media differ not only in their susceptibility to the deceptions of their preferred candidates but also in their report of such phenomena, as preferred candidates but also in their report of such phenomena, as those favoring Democratic Party nominee John Kerry in 2004 were those favoring Democratic Party nominee John Kerry in 2004 were more likely to report that the unemployment rate was higher than were more likely to report that the unemployment rate was higher than were those supporting incumbent George W. Bush.17 those supporting incumbent George W. Bush.17 Erosion of the credibility of knowledge-certifying institutions Erosion of the credibility of knowledge-certifying institutions makes it more difficult to ground policy debates in the best of what we makes it more difficult to ground policy debates in the best of what we can know about past practice and future probability. In place of can know about past practice and future probability. In place of common ground, we are left with the assertions and counter assertions common ground, we are left with the assertions and counter assertions of ideologues and the prospect that one or both sides in a debate will of ideologues and the prospect that one or both sides in a debate will engage in uncorrected misrepresentation backed by waves of engage in uncorrected misrepresentation backed by waves of duplicitous advertising. The effects can be consequential. When the duplicitous advertising. The effects can be consequential. When the messaging balance tilts toward one side rather than the other, political messaging balance tilts toward one side rather than the other, political advertising is able to affect voters and, in close contests, election advertising is able to affect voters and, in close contests, election

15 G. Sargent, “Factchecking for Thee, but Not for Me.” Washington Post (28 August 15 G. Sargent, “Factchecking for Thee, but Not for Me.” Washington Post (28 August 2012). Accessed at http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/fact-checking-for- 2012). Accessed at http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/fact-checking-for- thee-but-not-for-me/2012/08/28/cccd6036-f11d-11e1-892d-bc92fee603a7_blog.html thee-but-not-for-me/2012/08/28/cccd6036-f11d-11e1-892d-bc92fee603a7_blog.html 16 J. Gottfried, et al. “Did Fact Checking Matter in the 2012 Presidential Campaign?” 16 J. Gottfried, et al. “Did Fact Checking Matter in the 2012 Presidential Campaign?” American Behavioral Scientist 57, no. 11 (2013): 1558–67. American Behavioral Scientist 57, no. 11 (2013): 1558–67. 17 K. H. Jamieson, and J. Cappella. Echo Chamber: Rush Limbaugh and the Conservative 17 K. H. Jamieson, and J. Cappella. Echo Chamber: Rush Limbaugh and the Conservative Media Establishment (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), 191–214. Media Establishment (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), 191–214.

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outcomes as well.18 The same principle applies to messaging backing outcomes as well.18 The same principle applies to messaging backing passage or defeat of Congressional legislation, as Deborah Beck and I passage or defeat of Congressional legislation, as Deborah Beck and I showed in our study of the contest over the 1998 McCain amendment showed in our study of the contest over the 1998 McCain amendment that would have increased the regulatory authority of the U.S. Food that would have increased the regulatory authority of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration over tobacco products. In that instance, in and Drug Administration over tobacco products. In that instance, in the presence of controls, public exposure to unrebutted tobacco the presence of controls, public exposure to unrebutted tobacco industry advertising predicted belief in the tobacco industry’s ads’ key industry advertising predicted belief in the tobacco industry’s ads’ key deceptions.19 Importantly, as in the instances explored in the current deceptions.19 Importantly, as in the instances explored in the current essay, the cigarette manufacturers got their way; the legislation they essay, the cigarette manufacturers got their way; the legislation they opposed stalled in Congress. opposed stalled in Congress.

How Duplicitous Advertising Can Undermine Governance How Duplicitous Advertising Can Undermine Governance The four cases that I will briefly explore test the argument that policy The four cases that I will briefly explore test the argument that policy debate can be corrupted and the public good sidetracked when distor- debate can be corrupted and the public good sidetracked when distor- tive messages drown out the other side and sabotage the ability of tive messages drown out the other side and sabotage the ability of knowledge-certifying institutions to anchor audience presuppositions knowledge-certifying institutions to anchor audience presuppositions and arbitrate competing claims. In each of these instances, actual or and arbitrate competing claims. In each of these instances, actual or threatened imbalances in campaign advertising perverted the governing threatened imbalances in campaign advertising perverted the governing process by altering the policy agenda, thus affecting the contours of process by altering the policy agenda, thus affecting the contours of legislation, stalling desirable policy options, or thwarting the public legislation, stalling desirable policy options, or thwarting the public will. My examples span the policy spectrum, from prison furloughs will. My examples span the policy spectrum, from prison furloughs and tobacco control to welfare policy and gun show reporting and tobacco control to welfare policy and gun show reporting requirements. requirements.

Case 1—Affect Policy Agenda: The Case of Furloughs Case 1—Affect Policy Agenda: The Case of Furloughs In early October 1988, the presidential campaign of Republican Party In early October 1988, the presidential campaign of Republican Party nominee George H. W. Bush launched a stark black-and-white ad that nominee George H. W. Bush launched a stark black-and-white ad that opened with prison scenes and then cut to a procession of supposed opened with prison scenes and then cut to a procession of supposed convicts passing through a revolving turnstile. By carefully associating convicts passing through a revolving turnstile. By carefully associating words with images, the ad invited the false inferences that 268 first- words with images, the ad invited the false inferences that 268 first- degree murderers not eligible for parole had been furloughed by Demo- degree murderers not eligible for parole had been furloughed by Demo- cratic nominee Michael Dukakis, and while on the lam, many had cratic nominee Michael Dukakis, and while on the lam, many had committed horrific crimes. “His revolving door prison policy gave committed horrific crimes. “His revolving door prison policy gave weekend furloughs to first-degree murderers not eligible for parole,” weekend furloughs to first-degree murderers not eligible for parole,” intoned the ad’s announcer. “While out many [“268 escaped” appears intoned the ad’s announcer. “While out many [“268 escaped” appears

18 R. Johnston, M. Hagen, and K. H. Jamieson. The 2000 Election and the Foundations 18 R. Johnston, M. Hagen, and K. H. Jamieson. The 2000 Election and the Foundations of Party Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004). of Party Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004). 19 D. Beck, and K. H. Jamieson. “Do Issue Ads Work? If So, When?” in Everything You 19 D. Beck, and K. H. Jamieson. “Do Issue Ads Work? If So, When?” in Everything You Know About Politics…And Why You’re Wrong, ed. K. H. Jamieson (New York: Basic Books, Know About Politics…And Why You’re Wrong, ed. K. H. Jamieson (New York: Basic Books, 2000), 125–40. 2000), 125–40.

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on the screen] committed crimes like kidnapping and rape. And many on the screen] committed crimes like kidnapping and rape. And many are still at large.”20 Lost in the ineffectual responses of the Dukakis are still at large.”20 Lost in the ineffectual responses of the Dukakis campaign and the press was the fact that the Massachusetts furlough campaign and the press was the fact that the Massachusetts furlough policy that the Democratic nominee inherited from his Republican policy that the Democratic nominee inherited from his Republican predecessor only applied to those eligible for parole. Moreover, after predecessor only applied to those eligible for parole. Moreover, after “jumping furlough” in Massachusetts, only one (not 268) named “jumping furlough” in Massachusetts, only one (not 268) named William Horton had kidnapped and raped. The evocative nature of the William Horton had kidnapped and raped. The evocative nature of the furlough narrative was amplified by a second ad by an independent furlough narrative was amplified by a second ad by an independent group that falsely alleged that Horton had been originally convicted of group that falsely alleged that Horton had been originally convicted of repeatedly stabbing a 17-year-old boy, a conclusion unsupported by the repeatedly stabbing a 17-year-old boy, a conclusion unsupported by the trial record, which suggested instead that while the murder was taking trial record, which suggested instead that while the murder was taking place, Horton (who was convicted as an accomplice to a felony murder) place, Horton (who was convicted as an accomplice to a felony murder) was in the getaway car. was in the getaway car. The same ad implied that Bush would have prevented the tragedy The same ad implied that Bush would have prevented the tragedy because unlike Dukakis, he favored the death penalty. The implied because unlike Dukakis, he favored the death penalty. The implied distinction was bogus on two counts. First, the federal system over distinction was bogus on two counts. First, the federal system over which Reagan and Bush had presided for nearly 8 years had a furlough which Reagan and Bush had presided for nearly 8 years had a furlough program of its own, and second, a Supreme Court ruling had earlier program of its own, and second, a Supreme Court ruling had earlier prohibited executing those convicted as accomplices to a felony murder. prohibited executing those convicted as accomplices to a felony murder. Because Horton’s mug shot was prominently featured in that ad, race- Because Horton’s mug shot was prominently featured in that ad, race- based fear played a role in the narrative as well. Horton is black, and based fear played a role in the narrative as well. Horton is black, and his victims, white. his victims, white. After recounting their nightmarish experience with Horton, in a After recounting their nightmarish experience with Horton, in a third independent expenditure ad, the woman raped and the man third independent expenditure ad, the woman raped and the man assaulted by the furloughed convict urged a vote against liberal assaulted by the furloughed convict urged a vote against liberal Dukakis. Probable audience response to this combination of messages Dukakis. Probable audience response to this combination of messages was predictable. Because dramatic visualized narratives are cognitively was predictable. Because dramatic visualized narratives are cognitively accessible, the availability heuristic leads us to over-generalize the accessible, the availability heuristic leads us to over-generalize the likelihood of such recounted events. Taken together, these ads invited likelihood of such recounted events. Taken together, these ads invited viewers to see furlough programs as a vehicle for propelling murderers, viewers to see furlough programs as a vehicle for propelling murderers, kidnappers, and rapists into our homes. Lost in the evocative, inaccurate kidnappers, and rapists into our homes. Lost in the evocative, inaccurate narrative were two simple policy-relevant facts: (1) very few escape narrative were two simple policy-relevant facts: (1) very few escape while furloughed and (2) furloughs were a mainstay of both the state while furloughed and (2) furloughs were a mainstay of both the state and federal penal systems because they reduce recidivism. 21, 22 and federal penal systems because they reduce recidivism. 21, 22

20 K. H. Jamieson, Packaging the Presidency: A History and Criticism of Presidential 20 K. H. Jamieson, Packaging the Presidency: A History and Criticism of Presidential Campaign Advertising (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996), 471. Campaign Advertising (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996), 471. 21 K. H. Jamieson, Dirty Politics: Deception, Distraction and Democracy (New York: 21 K. H. Jamieson, Dirty Politics: Deception, Distraction and Democracy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993), 15–42. Oxford University Press, 1993), 15–42. 22 M. Harer, “Recidivism among Federal Prison Releases in 1987: A Preliminary Report.” 22 M. Harer, “Recidivism among Federal Prison Releases in 1987: A Preliminary Report.” Federal Bureau of Prisons (11 March 1994). Accessed at https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ Federal Bureau of Prisons (11 March 1994). Accessed at https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ Digitization/156549NCJRS.pdf Digitization/156549NCJRS.pdf

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Nonetheless, in the short term, the ads reduced Dukakis’s prospect of Nonetheless, in the short term, the ads reduced Dukakis’s prospect of winning the presidency.23 winning the presidency.23 But that is not the effect that interests me here. After the Horton But that is not the effect that interests me here. After the Horton narrative entered public consciousness, a national survey found that a narrative entered public consciousness, a national survey found that a number of states decided to restrict furloughs.24 Among them was number of states decided to restrict furloughs.24 Among them was Texas. “The chairman of the board of the Texas Department of Correc- Texas. “The chairman of the board of the Texas Department of Correc- tions acknowledged the political influence on prison policy,” noted tions acknowledged the political influence on prison policy,” noted David C. Anderson in Crime and the Politics of Hysteria (1995). “‘We David C. Anderson in Crime and the Politics of Hysteria (1995). “‘We really hadn’t had problems,’ Charles Terell said of the furlough really hadn’t had problems,’ Charles Terell said of the furlough program. ‘What caused all this was the Willie Horton thing during the program. ‘What caused all this was the Willie Horton thing during the presidential campaign.’”25 The changes, reports Anderson, “barring presidential campaign.’”25 The changes, reports Anderson, “barring more serious offenders and allowing furloughs only for those within 6 more serious offenders and allowing furloughs only for those within 6 months of parole eligibility, reduced the number of Texas inmates going months of parole eligibility, reduced the number of Texas inmates going out on furloughs by more than half.” The effects were not limited to out on furloughs by more than half.” The effects were not limited to Texas. The 1995 Census of State and Federal Correctional Facilities Texas. The 1995 Census of State and Federal Correctional Facilities reported that “[t]he number of regularly scheduled inmate furloughs reported that “[t]he number of regularly scheduled inmate furloughs fell 59% from 28,849 during the year preceding the 1990 census to fell 59% from 28,849 during the year preceding the 1990 census to 11,776 in the year leading up to the 1995 census.”26 11,776 in the year leading up to the 1995 census.”26 The Horton ads had another afterlife as well. In statewide judicial The Horton ads had another afterlife as well. In statewide judicial elections throughout the country, ads about individuals whose sentences elections throughout the country, ads about individuals whose sentences were commuted or who were set free began to appear. Lost in these were commuted or who were set free began to appear. Lost in these evocative tales was the fact that, in many of these instances, the evocative tales was the fact that, in many of these instances, the outcome attributed to a judge had been decided by a jury or was outcome attributed to a judge had been decided by a jury or was required by law. With the caution that correlation does not establish required by law. With the caution that correlation does not establish causation, let me posit one possible effect. After correlating judicial causation, let me posit one possible effect. After correlating judicial decisions in 3,000 criminal cases in 32 states from 2008 through 2013 decisions in 3,000 criminal cases in 32 states from 2008 through 2013 with the presence of higher levels of advertising in judicial races in with the presence of higher levels of advertising in judicial races in those states, a recent study found that as the number of television ads those states, a recent study found that as the number of television ads in state Supreme Court races increased, so too did the probability that in state Supreme Court races increased, so too did the probability that the court would rule against a criminal defendant.27 the court would rule against a criminal defendant.27

23 K. H. Jamieson, Packaging the Presidency: A History and Criticism of Presidential 23 K. H. Jamieson, Packaging the Presidency: A History and Criticism of Presidential Campaign Advertising (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996), 459–84. Campaign Advertising (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996), 459–84. 24 See S. P. Davis, “Number of Furloughs Increasing—Success Rates High.” Corrections 24 See S. P. Davis, “Number of Furloughs Increasing—Success Rates High.” Corrections Compendium 16 (1991): 10–21. See also W. Bagdon, and J. Ryan, “Intensive Supervision of Compendium 16 (1991): 10–21. See also W. Bagdon, and J. Ryan, “Intensive Supervision of Offenders on Prerelease Furlough: An Evaluation of the Vermont Experience.” Forum on Offenders on Prerelease Furlough: An Evaluation of the Vermont Experience.” Forum on Corrections Research 2 (1993): 29–3; and L. Chelotis, “Before the Next Storm: Some Corrections Research 2 (1993): 29–3; and L. Chelotis, “Before the Next Storm: Some Evidence-Based Reminders about Temporary Release.” International Journal of Offender Evidence-Based Reminders about Temporary Release.” International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 53, no. 4 (2009): 420–32. Therapy and Comparative Criminology 53, no. 4 (2009): 420–32. 25 D. C. Anderson, Crime and the Politics of Hysteria: How the Willie Horton Story 25 D. C. Anderson, Crime and the Politics of Hysteria: How the Willie Horton Story Changed American Justice (New York: Random House, 1995), 248. Changed American Justice (New York: Random House, 1995), 248. 26 Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Census of State and Federal Correctional Facilities, 26 Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Census of State and Federal Correctional Facilities, 1995” (August 1997). Accessed at http://www.prisonpolicy.org/scans/bjs/csfcf95.pdf 1995” (August 1997). Accessed at http://www.prisonpolicy.org/scans/bjs/csfcf95.pdf 27 J. Shepherd, and M. Kang, “Citizens United, Television Advertising and State Supreme 27 J. Shepherd, and M. Kang, “Citizens United, Television Advertising and State Supreme Court Justices’ Decisions in Criminal Case.” Last modified 1 October 2014. Accessed at Court Justices’ Decisions in Criminal Case.” Last modified 1 October 2014. Accessed at http://skewedjustice.org/ http://skewedjustice.org/

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Case 2—Affect Legislation: The Clinton Health Insurance Reform Case 2—Affect Legislation: The Clinton Health Insurance Reform Effort Effort Whereas the 1988 furlough ads may have affected state-level penal Whereas the 1988 furlough ads may have affected state-level penal policy, the impact on pending legislation produced by the Health Insur- policy, the impact on pending legislation produced by the Health Insur- ance Association of America’s (HIAA’s) 1993–4 “Harry and Louise” ance Association of America’s (HIAA’s) 1993–4 “Harry and Louise” campaign occurred inside a key committee in the House of Representa- campaign occurred inside a key committee in the House of Representa- tives. Unlike the Horton ads, which were funded by those supporting a tives. Unlike the Horton ads, which were funded by those supporting a presidential contender, the sponsor of the Harry and Louise ads was a presidential contender, the sponsor of the Harry and Louise ads was a trade group made up of small and mid-sized insurers who in 1993–4 trade group made up of small and mid-sized insurers who in 1993–4 provided health coverage for between one-quarter and one-third of the provided health coverage for between one-quarter and one-third of the market. During the fight over the Clinton initiative, that trade organi- market. During the fight over the Clinton initiative, that trade organi- zation’s initial $14 million cable buy dwarfed spending by other inter- zation’s initial $14 million cable buy dwarfed spending by other inter- ested players. For the HIAA’s members, the stakes were high. Had the ested players. For the HIAA’s members, the stakes were high. Had the mandatory purchasing alliances at the core of the Clinton health insur- mandatory purchasing alliances at the core of the Clinton health insur- ance reform effort survived, these insurers probably would have aban- ance reform effort survived, these insurers probably would have aban- doned the health coverage market or gone under. doned the health coverage market or gone under. Begun in September 1993 and continued intermittently into early Begun in September 1993 and continued intermittently into early August 1994, the HIAA campaign starred a yuppie couple troubled not August 1994, the HIAA campaign starred a yuppie couple troubled not only by those alliances but also by the Clinton bill’s premium caps, only by those alliances but also by the Clinton bill’s premium caps, community ratings, and possible tax on high-end insurance plans. To community ratings, and possible tax on high-end insurance plans. To secure elimination of these provisions, the ads advanced the misleading secure elimination of these provisions, the ads advanced the misleading notions that the proposed legislation would limit the amount of health notions that the proposed legislation would limit the amount of health care, create a government monopoly, and, unlike the status quo, reduce care, create a government monopoly, and, unlike the status quo, reduce the choices available to consumers and “ration” health care. In fact, the choices available to consumers and “ration” health care. In fact, even as the ads were airing, the managed-care revolution was in the even as the ads were airing, the managed-care revolution was in the process of circumscribing consumer treatment options within plans. process of circumscribing consumer treatment options within plans. Unless potential voters were CNN junkies or lived in the home- Unless potential voters were CNN junkies or lived in the home- town of a pivotal member of Congress on a health committee, however, town of a pivotal member of Congress on a health committee, however, they were not subjected to the travails of “Harry and Louise” firsthand. they were not subjected to the travails of “Harry and Louise” firsthand. Nonetheless, those who paid regular attention to the news would have Nonetheless, those who paid regular attention to the news would have known who they were. For journalists, “Harry and Louise” were house- known who they were. For journalists, “Harry and Louise” were house- hold names, appearing more than 700 times in 11 months of news- hold names, appearing more than 700 times in 11 months of news- paper stories. The norms dictating the newsworthiness of “Harry and paper stories. The norms dictating the newsworthiness of “Harry and Louise” were clear. Not only did the worried couple star in the first Louise” were clear. Not only did the worried couple star in the first anti-reform ads aired, but by eliciting counterattacks from the White anti-reform ads aired, but by eliciting counterattacks from the White House and its allies, their allegations also fed reporters’ hunger for House and its allies, their allegations also fed reporters’ hunger for narratives driven by conflict. narratives driven by conflict. As a side note, let me point out that the HIAA ads drew their power As a side note, let me point out that the HIAA ads drew their power not from an actual effect on public opinion but rather from imputa- not from an actual effect on public opinion but rather from imputa- tions of effectiveness by both supporters of the Clinton effort and the tions of effectiveness by both supporters of the Clinton effort and the media. Rather than attributing waning public support for his plan to media. Rather than attributing waning public support for his plan to his own declining popularity; or to weaknesses in the complex plan; or his own declining popularity; or to weaknesses in the complex plan; or

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to its rejection by the Business Roundtable, Chamber of Commerce, to its rejection by the Business Roundtable, Chamber of Commerce, and National Association of Manufacturers; or to the Congressional and National Association of Manufacturers; or to the Congressional Budget Office for finding that it would increase the deficit short term, Budget Office for finding that it would increase the deficit short term, the incumbent president and his allies magnified the role played by the incumbent president and his allies magnified the role played by “Harry and Louise” in “misinforming” the public. “Clearly, Harry and “Harry and Louise” in “misinforming” the public. “Clearly, Harry and Louise have been effective in misleading people,” said Democratic Louise have been effective in misleading people,” said Democratic National Chairman David Wilhelm. Reporters also credited “Harry National Chairman David Wilhelm. Reporters also credited “Harry and Louise” with changing the health care debate. “The fictional TV and Louise” with changing the health care debate. “The fictional TV critics of Clinton’s health-care plan” wrote Time, “legitimized the frus- critics of Clinton’s health-care plan” wrote Time, “legitimized the frus- tration many Americans feel when they try to make sense of the debate tration many Americans feel when they try to make sense of the debate over the intricacies of health care.” The National Journal’s Congres- over the intricacies of health care.” The National Journal’s Congres- sional Daily of July 7 credited the spots with “hinder[ing] the adminis- sional Daily of July 7 credited the spots with “hinder[ing] the adminis- tration’s efforts to pass health care reform.”28 tration’s efforts to pass health care reform.”28 However, contrary to press reports, the available indicators of However, contrary to press reports, the available indicators of effectiveness suggest that the ads had a negligible impact on prospec- effectiveness suggest that the ads had a negligible impact on prospec- tive voters. Not only were “Harry and Louise’s” messages not aired tive voters. Not only were “Harry and Louise’s” messages not aired nationally (one-third of the nation’s households lacked cable at the nationally (one-third of the nation’s households lacked cable at the time), but local airing was also limited to New York and Washington time), but local airing was also limited to New York and Washington DC, as well as a scattering of legislative districts. So, for example, the DC, as well as a scattering of legislative districts. So, for example, the two ads shown between June 20 and July 24 focused on the District of two ads shown between June 20 and July 24 focused on the District of Columbia and New York City, Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, Columbia and New York City, Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, California, Missouri, New Mexico, and Tennessee, Oklahoma, California, Missouri, New Mexico, and Louisiana. Louisiana. Indeed, when questioned an hour or so after viewing the ads, the Indeed, when questioned an hour or so after viewing the ads, the minority in an Annenberg Public Policy Center study with any memory minority in an Annenberg Public Policy Center study with any memory of them at all recalled an appeal to call Congress, not the HIAA—about of them at all recalled an appeal to call Congress, not the HIAA—about what, they were not sure—or a plea to reject government involvement what, they were not sure—or a plea to reject government involvement in health reform or reform altogether, a conclusion at odds with the in health reform or reform altogether, a conclusion at odds with the HIAA’s goal of “support[ing] a system which would cover all Ameri- HIAA’s goal of “support[ing] a system which would cover all Ameri- cans either through employer-provided or government-subsidized cans either through employer-provided or government-subsidized health insurance.” When asked to rank the ads on effectiveness, Annen- health insurance.” When asked to rank the ads on effectiveness, Annen- berg focus group respondents placed the HIAA’s eighth and ninth out berg focus group respondents placed the HIAA’s eighth and ninth out of 11 health care reform ads aired by major national organizations in of 11 health care reform ads aired by major national organizations in the 1993–4 debate. the 1993–4 debate. However, as sophists since Machiavelli have preached, appearance However, as sophists since Machiavelli have preached, appearance counts. It was the presumption of effect—the illusion of power—that counts. It was the presumption of effect—the illusion of power—that gave the HIAA the wherewithal to gain concessions from House Ways gave the HIAA the wherewithal to gain concessions from House Ways and Means Committee Chair Dan Rostenkowski. Believing that “Harry and Means Committee Chair Dan Rostenkowski. Believing that “Harry and Louise” could jeopardize the re-election of those he saw as swing and Louise” could jeopardize the re-election of those he saw as swing votes in the Ways and Means committee, the Illinois Congressman cut votes in the Ways and Means committee, the Illinois Congressman cut

28 K. H. Jamieson, “‘Harry and Louise’ Ads Given More Credit Than Deserved.” The 28 K. H. Jamieson, “‘Harry and Louise’ Ads Given More Credit Than Deserved.” The Morning Call (17 August 1994). Accessed at http://articles.mcall.com/1994-08-17/ Morning Call (17 August 1994). Accessed at http://articles.mcall.com/1994-08-17/ news/2991487_1_harry-and-louise-health-coverage-insurance-association news/2991487_1_harry-and-louise-health-coverage-insurance-association

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a deal with the trade organization. In return for concessions from the a deal with the trade organization. In return for concessions from the powerful chairman, the HIAA agreed not to air the “Harry and Louise” powerful chairman, the HIAA agreed not to air the “Harry and Louise” ads in key districts during the mark-up of the bill. The quid pro quo ads in key districts during the mark-up of the bill. The quid pro quo was not a closely kept secret. At an Annenberg Public Policy Center was not a closely kept secret. At an Annenberg Public Policy Center conference held in summer 1994, one of the HIAA leaders bragged, conference held in summer 1994, one of the HIAA leaders bragged, “Obviously our ads had an effect on the process. And in negotiating “Obviously our ads had an effect on the process. And in negotiating and discussing issues with some members of Congress, they agreed to and discussing issues with some members of Congress, they agreed to be helpful on key issues, make changes that we felt were important . . . be helpful on key issues, make changes that we felt were important . . . if we would hold our power. . . .” The deal broke down only with if we would hold our power. . . .” The deal broke down only with Rostenkowski’s indictment on fraud and obstruction of justice charges Rostenkowski’s indictment on fraud and obstruction of justice charges and his resulting loss of the chairmanship. and his resulting loss of the chairmanship.

Case 3—Close Policy Options: Gut Welfare Reform Case 3—Close Policy Options: Gut Welfare Reform Duplicitous attacks can also derail desirable policy experimentation. A Duplicitous attacks can also derail desirable policy experimentation. A case-in-point occurred when deceptive campaign ads subverted case-in-point occurred when deceptive campaign ads subverted attempts to grant governors permission they had sought to explore attempts to grant governors permission they had sought to explore ways to increase employment among welfare recipients. In this instance, ways to increase employment among welfare recipients. In this instance, the assaults thwarted the ability of state governments to do what they the assaults thwarted the ability of state governments to do what they do best: test alternative ways of reaching a desirable policy goal at the do best: test alternative ways of reaching a desirable policy goal at the local level. Indeed, state-driven innovation was a prime force propel- local level. Indeed, state-driven innovation was a prime force propel- ling the 1996 passage of federal welfare reform to begin with. ling the 1996 passage of federal welfare reform to begin with. In the story I will recount here, the Republican political philosophy, In the story I will recount here, the Republican political philosophy, which dictates that problems are often better handled at local and state which dictates that problems are often better handled at local and state levels rather than federal one, was undermined by a Republican levels rather than federal one, was undermined by a Republican presidential campaign’s attack on waivers designed to increase state presidential campaign’s attack on waivers designed to increase state level flexibility under the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families level flexibility under the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program passed with Republican support in Congress and (TANF) program passed with Republican support in Congress and signed into law by Democratic president Bill Clinton. To incentivize signed into law by Democratic president Bill Clinton. To incentivize the transition of welfare recipients into the workforce, TANF gave the transition of welfare recipients into the workforce, TANF gave states block grants, limited the length of time families could receive states block grants, limited the length of time families could receive benefits, and mandated that one-half of those beneficiaries be involved benefits, and mandated that one-half of those beneficiaries be involved in work activities. In the years that followed its implementation, state in work activities. In the years that followed its implementation, state level officials sought ways to improve it. Arguing that they could level officials sought ways to improve it. Arguing that they could increase the numbers of recipients in the workforce, in 2005, then- increase the numbers of recipients in the workforce, in 2005, then- Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and 28 other Republican Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and 28 other Republican governors asked Congress for the flexibility “to seek new and governors asked Congress for the flexibility “to seek new and innovative solutions to help welfare recipients achieve independence.” innovative solutions to help welfare recipients achieve independence.” The requested authorization would have included “[i]ncreased waiver The requested authorization would have included “[i]ncreased waiver authority, allowable work activities, availability of partial work credit, authority, allowable work activities, availability of partial work credit, and the ability to coordinate state programs are all important aspects and the ability to coordinate state programs are all important aspects of moving recipients from welfare to work.” Romney was not the only of moving recipients from welfare to work.” Romney was not the only

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prominent Republican signatory. Among the other petitioning prominent Republican signatory. Among the other petitioning governors were future Republican presidential aspirants Tim Pawlenty governors were future Republican presidential aspirants Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Rick Perry of Texas, Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Jeb Bush of Minnesota, Rick Perry of Texas, Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Jeb Bush of Florida, Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, of Florida, Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, and Jon Huntsman of Utah. and Jon Huntsman of Utah. After the waiver idea had percolated in policy discussions for more After the waiver idea had percolated in policy discussions for more than a decade, in summer 2012, Federal officials announced that “states than a decade, in summer 2012, Federal officials announced that “states could apply for greater flexibility under . . . TANF . . . in exchange for could apply for greater flexibility under . . . TANF . . . in exchange for moving more welfare recipients into jobs.” They did so in response to moving more welfare recipients into jobs.” They did so in response to active requests from state leaders, who argued, as the Utah Department active requests from state leaders, who argued, as the Utah Department of Workforce Services did, that “[i]n times of reduced funding, waivers of Workforce Services did, that “[i]n times of reduced funding, waivers may be the best method to allow states to find effective and efficient may be the best method to allow states to find effective and efficient approaches to assist the unemployed to find and keep work”29. approaches to assist the unemployed to find and keep work”29. Because he had sought them as governor, one may have expected Because he had sought them as governor, one may have expected Republican nominee Mitt Romney to applaud the administration deci- Republican nominee Mitt Romney to applaud the administration deci- sion. Instead, recognizing that the action created a political vulnera- sion. Instead, recognizing that the action created a political vulnera- bility for the incumbent, the Republican reality creators in his service bility for the incumbent, the Republican reality creators in his service ran more than $10 million in attack ads recasting the new flexibility as ran more than $10 million in attack ads recasting the new flexibility as an end to the work requirements that “gutted” the welfare reform an end to the work requirements that “gutted” the welfare reform program itself. The accusation was unsupported by the facts. As Health program itself. The accusation was unsupported by the facts. As Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius noted in a letter to and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius noted in a letter to Congress, “to qualify for a waiver, governors must show how they will Congress, “to qualify for a waiver, governors must show how they will move at least 20 percent more people from welfare to work. States move at least 20 percent more people from welfare to work. States must also show clear progress toward that goal within a year.”30 must also show clear progress toward that goal within a year.”30 In this case, ironies abound. Republican governors who had sought In this case, ironies abound. Republican governors who had sought the waivers quickly realized that clips from the Romney attacks on the waivers quickly realized that clips from the Romney attacks on Obama could be repurposed to argue that they favored “gutting welfare Obama could be repurposed to argue that they favored “gutting welfare reform.” The results were unsurprising. Not a single state applied for a reform.” The results were unsurprising. Not a single state applied for a waiver. Faced with a pending vote in the Republican-controlled House waiver. Faced with a pending vote in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives barring the administration from “waiving the work of Representatives barring the administration from “waiving the work requirements,” the Obama administration withdrew its offer. The with- requirements,” the Obama administration withdrew its offer. The with- drawal observed the following: drawal observed the following: With respect to the provision in H.R. 890 to limit State flexibility to With respect to the provision in H.R. 890 to limit State flexibility to strengthen the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) strengthen the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program, the Administration notes that this flexibility was requested program, the Administration notes that this flexibility was requested by Governors on both sides of the aisle to allow States to test new, by Governors on both sides of the aisle to allow States to test new,

29 E. Kiely, and R. Moss, “Does Obama’s Plan ‘Gut Welfare Reform’?” Factcheck.org 29 E. Kiely, and R. Moss, “Does Obama’s Plan ‘Gut Welfare Reform’?” Factcheck.org (2012 August 9). Accessed at http://www.factcheck.org/2012/08/does-obamas-plan-gut (2012 August 9). Accessed at http://www.factcheck.org/2012/08/does-obamas-plan-gut -welfare-reform/ -welfare-reform/ 30 S. Ohlemacher, “House to Vote on Bill Preventing Welfare Waivers.” Huffington Post 30 S. Ohlemacher, “House to Vote on Bill Preventing Welfare Waivers.” Huffington Post (2013 March 13). Accessed at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/13/welfare- (2013 March 13). Accessed at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/13/welfare- waivers_n_2866830.html waivers_n_2866830.html

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more effective ways to place more people on a path to self-sufficiency. more effective ways to place more people on a path to self-sufficiency. Ultimately, no States formally applied for State waivers, deterred in Ultimately, no States formally applied for State waivers, deterred in part by inaccurate claims about what the policy involves; therefore, part by inaccurate claims about what the policy involves; therefore, the limiting provision would have no practical effect on any pending the limiting provision would have no practical effect on any pending application.”31 application.”31

Case 4—Thwart Public Will: Background Checks Case 4—Thwart Public Will: Background Checks In one important way, the last story I will recount is not akin to the In one important way, the last story I will recount is not akin to the furlough, welfare waiver, and health insurance reform instances because furlough, welfare waiver, and health insurance reform instances because in this final example, very little money was actually spent on deceptive in this final example, very little money was actually spent on deceptive content. However, like the health care and welfare instances, the pros- content. However, like the health care and welfare instances, the pros- pect of future spending proved powerful. pect of future spending proved powerful. In the circumstances outlined here, a legislative initiative supported In the circumstances outlined here, a legislative initiative supported by 90% of the public went down to defeat after opponents aired by 90% of the public went down to defeat after opponents aired carefully targeted distortions. The bill in question followed Adam carefully targeted distortions. The bill in question followed Adam Lanza’s December 2012 use of an assault weapon to massacre 20 first Lanza’s December 2012 use of an assault weapon to massacre 20 first graders and six adults at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, graders and six adults at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut. White House response to the tragedy was swift. After Connecticut. White House response to the tragedy was swift. After meeting with stakeholders, including the National Rifle Association, meeting with stakeholders, including the National Rifle Association, and the victims of gun violence, the vice president recommended (1) a and the victims of gun violence, the vice president recommended (1) a ban on some military style assault rifles, (2) a limit on the size of ban on some military style assault rifles, (2) a limit on the size of magazine clips, and (3) increased background checks. Because all gun magazine clips, and (3) increased background checks. Because all gun sales by a federally licensed dealer were already subject to background sales by a federally licensed dealer were already subject to background checks, this proposed change built on existing practice. In thirteen checks, this proposed change built on existing practice. In thirteen speeches across the country (including the one given at the Newtown speeches across the country (including the one given at the Newtown memorial service), and in his second inaugural and 2013 state of the memorial service), and in his second inaugural and 2013 state of the Union addresses, the incumbent Democratic president championed Union addresses, the incumbent Democratic president championed legislative action to protect the nation’s children from another Sandy legislative action to protect the nation’s children from another Sandy Hook. Hook. Introduced by Senators Joe Manchin (D., West Virginia) and Pat Introduced by Senators Joe Manchin (D., West Virginia) and Pat Toomey (R., Pennsylvania), this legislation included the Public Safety Toomey (R., Pennsylvania), this legislation included the Public Safety and Second Amendment Rights Protection Act, designed to prohibit and Second Amendment Rights Protection Act, designed to prohibit unlicensed persons from selling guns at gun shows or over the Internet. unlicensed persons from selling guns at gun shows or over the Internet. If enacted, the bill would have required that a licensed dealer run a If enacted, the bill would have required that a licensed dealer run a background check before gun-show or Internet buyers could acquire a background check before gun-show or Internet buyers could acquire a weapon. Specifically exempted were transfers between family members, weapon. Specifically exempted were transfers between family members,

31 Executive Office of the President, “Statement of Administration Policy – H.R. 890 – 31 Executive Office of the President, “Statement of Administration Policy – H.R. 890 – Preserving Work Requirements for Welfare Programs Act of 2013” (2013 March 12). Preserving Work Requirements for Welfare Programs Act of 2013” (2013 March 12). Accessed at http://www.whitehouse.gov//sites/default/files/omb/legislative/sap/113/saphr890r Accessed at http://www.whitehouse.gov//sites/default/files/omb/legislative/sap/113/saphr890r _20130312.pdf _20130312.pdf

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with “family” broadly defined to include spouses; parents; children, with “family” broadly defined to include spouses; parents; children, siblings, grandparents, aunts, uncles, and their spouses; and first cousins siblings, grandparents, aunts, uncles, and their spouses; and first cousins as long as “the transferor does not know or have reasonable cause to as long as “the transferor does not know or have reasonable cause to believe that the transferee is prohibited from receiving or possessing a believe that the transferee is prohibited from receiving or possessing a firearm under Federal, State, or local law.”32 firearm under Federal, State, or local law.”32 Public support seemed to guarantee the closing of the gun show Public support seemed to guarantee the closing of the gun show loophole. “The idea of requiring background checks on all gun loophole. “The idea of requiring background checks on all gun purchases, which would eliminate a provision that allows about purchases, which would eliminate a provision that allows about 40 percent of guns to be sold by unlicensed sellers without checks, was 40 percent of guns to be sold by unlicensed sellers without checks, was overwhelmingly popular,” noted the New York Times. “Nine in overwhelmingly popular,” noted the New York Times. “Nine in 10 Americans in a January 2013 New York Times/CBS News poll said 10 Americans in a January 2013 New York Times/CBS News poll said they would favor such a law, the poll found — including 9 in 10 of the they would favor such a law, the poll found — including 9 in 10 of the respondents who said that there was a gun in their household, and respondents who said that there was a gun in their household, and 85 percent whose households include National Rifle Association 85 percent whose households include National Rifle Association members.”33 The New York Times/CBS News survey data were consis- members.”33 The New York Times/CBS News survey data were consis- tent with that from Gallup, which found support among 91%.34 tent with that from Gallup, which found support among 91%.34 It is worth pausing here to note how seldom 90% of the public It is worth pausing here to note how seldom 90% of the public agrees on anything. In May 2011, only 80% told pollsters for the Wall agrees on anything. In May 2011, only 80% told pollsters for the Wall Street Journal and NBC that they believed it was the right decision to Street Journal and NBC that they believed it was the right decision to kill Osama bin Laden rather than capture him. In June 2002, 91% of kill Osama bin Laden rather than capture him. In June 2002, 91% of Americans favored an absolute policy that would banish from the Americans favored an absolute policy that would banish from the priesthood any individual proven to have sexually abused minors. priesthood any individual proven to have sexually abused minors. To subvert the bill, gun rights groups falsely asserted that the police To subvert the bill, gun rights groups falsely asserted that the police opposed Manchin-Toomey, inaccurately alleged that it would opposed Manchin-Toomey, inaccurately alleged that it would criminalize private transfers of weapons within families, and fabricated criminalize private transfers of weapons within families, and fabricated the fantasy that the bill established a national gun registry, a prophesy the fantasy that the bill established a national gun registry, a prophesy cast as “federal confiscation of weapons.” Each was aggressively cast as “federal confiscation of weapons.” Each was aggressively debunked by the three major national journalistic fact-checking debunked by the three major national journalistic fact-checking organizations—Politifact, The FactChecker of the Washington Post, organizations—Politifact, The FactChecker of the Washington Post, and FactCheck.org, a project of the policy center that I direct. Queries and FactCheck.org, a project of the policy center that I direct. Queries by the Washington Post quickly uncovered the fact that evidence of by the Washington Post quickly uncovered the fact that evidence of supposed police officer opposition came from anopt-in, non-probability supposed police officer opposition came from anopt-in, non-probability Internet survey conducted by a firm whose vice president characterized Internet survey conducted by a firm whose vice president characterized

32 Public Safety and Second Amendment Rights Protection Act. Available at: http://www. 32 Public Safety and Second Amendment Rights Protection Act. Available at: http://www. manchin.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=8134649f-6d23-4ef2-882f-6a4555 manchin.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=8134649f-6d23-4ef2-882f-6a4555 ff4889&SK=BDEA0DD2B0F4D93F905B5BC8DF6F76B6 ff4889&SK=BDEA0DD2B0F4D93F905B5BC8DF6F76B6 33 M. Cooper. and D. Sussman, “Massacre at School Sways Public in Way Earlier 33 M. Cooper. and D. Sussman, “Massacre at School Sways Public in Way Earlier Shootings Didn’t.” New York Times (2013 January 17). Accessed at http://www.nytimes. Shootings Didn’t.” New York Times (2013 January 17). Accessed at http://www.nytimes. com/2013/01/18/us/poll-shows-school-shooting-sways-views-on-guns.html?_r=0 com/2013/01/18/us/poll-shows-school-shooting-sways-views-on-guns.html?_r=0 34 L. Saad, “Americans Back Obama’s Proposals to Address Gun Violence.” Gallup 34 L. Saad, “Americans Back Obama’s Proposals to Address Gun Violence.” Gallup (2013 January 23). Accessed at http://www.gallup.com/poll/160085/americans-back-obama- (2013 January 23). Accessed at http://www.gallup.com/poll/160085/americans-back-obama- proposals-address-gun-violence.aspx proposals-address-gun-violence.aspx

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the study as “not scientific by definition.”35 The other claims were the study as “not scientific by definition.”35 The other claims were bogus as well. However, despite the fact that current law barred a bogus as well. However, despite the fact that current law barred a national registry and Manchin’s amendment mandated a 15-year felony national registry and Manchin’s amendment mandated a 15-year felony sentence for anyone who retained the names of those undergoing sentence for anyone who retained the names of those undergoing background checks, ads averred that the West Virginia Democrat was background checks, ads averred that the West Virginia Democrat was “beating the drum to herd gun owners into a federal registration “beating the drum to herd gun owners into a federal registration system.” Not only did the National Rifle Association spend $500,000 system.” Not only did the National Rifle Association spend $500,000 on ads attacking the bill on the day of the vote, but it also “told senators on ads attacking the bill on the day of the vote, but it also “told senators in an April 10 letter that the Manchin-Toomey measure would in an April 10 letter that the Manchin-Toomey measure would ‘criminalize the private transfer of firearms by honest citizens, requiring ‘criminalize the private transfer of firearms by honest citizens, requiring friends, neighbors and many family members to get government friends, neighbors and many family members to get government permission.’” 36, 37 permission.’” 36, 37 With 60 votes needed to avoid a filibuster, the proposal failed on With 60 votes needed to avoid a filibuster, the proposal failed on 2013 April 17 on a 54–46 Senate vote on the amendment that would 2013 April 17 on a 54–46 Senate vote on the amendment that would have closed “the gun show loophole.” The defeat of this limited have closed “the gun show loophole.” The defeat of this limited expansion of background checks revealed that passage of the underlying expansion of background checks revealed that passage of the underlying bill was not in the cards.38 Responding to Manchin-Toomey’s demise, bill was not in the cards.38 Responding to Manchin-Toomey’s demise, President Barack Obama declared that “the gun lobby and its allies President Barack Obama declared that “the gun lobby and its allies willfully lied about the bill.” My explanation of its defeat is consistent willfully lied about the bill.” My explanation of its defeat is consistent with his: “It came down to politics,” noted Obama,“—the worry that with his: “It came down to politics,” noted Obama,“—the worry that that vocal minority of gun owners would come after them in future that vocal minority of gun owners would come after them in future elections. They worried that the gun lobby would spend a lot of money elections. They worried that the gun lobby would spend a lot of money and paint them as anti-Second Amendment. And obviously a lot of and paint them as anti-Second Amendment. And obviously a lot of Republicans had that fear too. And so they caved to the pressure . . . . ”39 Republicans had that fear too. And so they caved to the pressure . . . . ”39 The threat that the NRA would outspend its adversaries in future The threat that the NRA would outspend its adversaries in future elections was not an idle one. The Center for Responsive Politics’ elections was not an idle one. The Center for Responsive Politics’ OpenSecrets.org reported that “[in] each of the years 2011 and 2012, OpenSecrets.org reported that “[in] each of the years 2011 and 2012, that pro-gun organization spent nearly $3 million on federal-level that pro-gun organization spent nearly $3 million on federal-level

35 G. Kessler, “NRA Ad Claims That Poll Data Reflect Views of ‘America’s Police.’” 35 G. Kessler, “NRA Ad Claims That Poll Data Reflect Views of ‘America’s Police.’” Washington Post (2013 April 4). Accessed at http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact- Washington Post (2013 April 4). Accessed at http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact- checker/post/nra-ad-claims-that-poll-data-reflects-views-of-americas-police/2013/04/17/ checker/post/nra-ad-claims-that-poll-data-reflects-views-of-americas-police/2013/04/17/ f32b82f6-a7ae-11e2-8302-3c7e0ea97057_blog.html f32b82f6-a7ae-11e2-8302-3c7e0ea97057_blog.html 36 J. Weisman, “Senate Blocks Drive for Gun Control.” New York Times (2013 April 17). 36 J. Weisman, “Senate Blocks Drive for Gun Control.” New York Times (2013 April 17). Accessed at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/18/us/politics/senate-obama-gun-control. Accessed at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/18/us/politics/senate-obama-gun-control. html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 37 “Manchin Can No Longer Rely on Backing of NRA.” CBS DC (2013 April 22). 37 “Manchin Can No Longer Rely on Backing of NRA.” CBS DC (2013 April 22). Accessed at http://washington.cbslocal.com/2013/04/22/manchin-can-no-longer Accessed at http://washington.cbslocal.com/2013/04/22/manchin-can-no-longer -rely-on-backing-of-nra/ -rely-on-backing-of-nra/ 38 J. Weisman, “Senate Blocks Drive for Gun Control.” New York Times (2013 April 17). 38 J. Weisman, “Senate Blocks Drive for Gun Control.” New York Times (2013 April 17). Accessed at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/18/us/politics/senate-obama-gun-control. Accessed at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/18/us/politics/senate-obama-gun-control. html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 39 “Statement by the President” (2013 April 17). Accessed at http://www.whitehouse. 39 “Statement by the President” (2013 April 17). Accessed at http://www.whitehouse. gov/the-press-office/2013/04/17/statement-president gov/the-press-office/2013/04/17/statement-president

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lobbying efforts. During the 2012 election cycle, the group laid out lobbying efforts. During the 2012 election cycle, the group laid out more than $25 million on ads40. more than $25 million on ads40.

Conclusion Conclusion Had the Bush aide been incorrect in his assessment of the relative Had the Bush aide been incorrect in his assessment of the relative powers of what he cast as the “reality based” and “reality creating” powers of what he cast as the “reality based” and “reality creating” communities, states’ furlough policies in the post-Horton years would communities, states’ furlough policies in the post-Horton years would have been shaped by evidence, not atypical example; the provisions in have been shaped by evidence, not atypical example; the provisions in the pending 1993–4 Clinton health care reform bill would have been the pending 1993–4 Clinton health care reform bill would have been determined on merit, not by threats to the electoral prospects of those determined on merit, not by threats to the electoral prospects of those on a key committee; states would now be experimenting with ways to on a key committee; states would now be experimenting with ways to increase the employability of those on welfare; and the gun show loop- increase the employability of those on welfare; and the gun show loop- hole would be a thing of the past. hole would be a thing of the past. The country’s founders could not have foreseen the ways in which The country’s founders could not have foreseen the ways in which governance could be corrupted by deep-pocketed deceivers. However, governance could be corrupted by deep-pocketed deceivers. However, two passages penned by one who was also an early member of the two passages penned by one who was also an early member of the American Philosophical Society do remind us of the elements required American Philosophical Society do remind us of the elements required to right the situation. Writing in “Federalist No. 10,” James Madison to right the situation. Writing in “Federalist No. 10,” James Madison noted that in a republic, government is delegated to citizens elected by noted that in a republic, government is delegated to citizens elected by the rest in the hope that those honored with office will “refine and the rest in the hope that those honored with office will “refine and enlarge the public views” and “discern the true interest of their country.” enlarge the public views” and “discern the true interest of their country.” Madison’s hope was that the “patriotism and love of justice” of this Madison’s hope was that the “patriotism and love of justice” of this chosen body of citizens would “be least likely to sacrifice it to temporary chosen body of citizens would “be least likely to sacrifice it to temporary or partial considerations” and that as a result, “the public voice, or partial considerations” and that as a result, “the public voice, pronounced by the representatives of the people, will be more pronounced by the representatives of the people, will be more consonant to the public good than if pronounced by the people consonant to the public good than if pronounced by the people themselves, convened for the purpose.”41 Speaking about the need for a themselves, convened for the purpose.”41 Speaking about the need for a general system of education in a letter to W. T. Barry in August 1822, general system of education in a letter to W. T. Barry in August 1822, the nation’s fourth president also observed that “a popular Government, the nation’s fourth president also observed that “a popular Government, without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a Prologue to a Farce or a Tragedy; or, perhaps both. Knowledge will Prologue to a Farce or a Tragedy; or, perhaps both. Knowledge will forever govern ignorance: And a people who mean to be their own forever govern ignorance: And a people who mean to be their own Governors, must arm themselves with the power which knowledge Governors, must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives.”42 If our system of government were working as Madison hoped, gives.”42 If our system of government were working as Madison hoped,

40 OpenSecrets.org Center for Responsive Politics. “National Rifle Association,” Last 40 OpenSecrets.org Center for Responsive Politics. “National Rifle Association,” Last modified 2014 October 25. Accessed at http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summary. modified 2014 October 25. Accessed at http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summary. php?id=D000000082 php?id=D000000082 41 James Madison, “The Federalist No. 10 - The Utility of the Union as a Safeguard 41 James Madison, “The Federalist No. 10 - The Utility of the Union as a Safeguard against Domestic Faction and Insurrection (continued).” Daily Advertiser (1787 November against Domestic Faction and Insurrection (continued).” Daily Advertiser (1787 November 22). Accessed at http://www.constitution.org/fed/federa10.htm 22). Accessed at http://www.constitution.org/fed/federa10.htm 42 “James Madison to W. T. Barry, Writings 9: 103–9” (1822 August 4). Accessed at 42 “James Madison to W. T. Barry, Writings 9: 103–9” (1822 August 4). Accessed at http://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/v1ch18s35.html http://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/v1ch18s35.html

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the artfully cast “temporary or partial considerations” advocated by the artfully cast “temporary or partial considerations” advocated by deep-pocketed sophistic consultants would be dispatched by a powerful deep-pocketed sophistic consultants would be dispatched by a powerful combination of forces: a public armed “with the power which combination of forces: a public armed “with the power which knowledge gives” and elected representatives disposed to see past the knowledge gives” and elected representatives disposed to see past the machinations of the moment to “discern the true interest of their machinations of the moment to “discern the true interest of their country.” As members of an organization dedicated to promoting useful country.” As members of an organization dedicated to promoting useful knowledge, turning such aspirations into reality should be our task. knowledge, turning such aspirations into reality should be our task.

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