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Financial Modeling LECTURE NOTES ON FINANCIAL MODELING MBA IV semester (IARE-R16) Ms. P.BINDU MADHAVI Assistant Professor DEPARTMENT OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION INSTITUTE OF AERONAUTICAL ENGINEERING (Autonomous) DUNDIGAL, HYDERABAD - 500 043 FINANCIAL MODELLING SYLLABUS UNIT-I UNDERSTANDING THE BASIC FEATURES OF EXCEL Hours: 09 Introduction to modeling, introduction to excel, understanding advanced features of excel database functions in excel, creating charts using forms and control toolbox, understanding finance functions present in excel, creating dynamic models. UNIT-II SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS USING EXCEL Hours: 09 Scenario manager, other sensitivity analysis features, simulation using excel different statistical distributions used in simulation generating random numbers that follow a particular distribution, building models in finance using simulation. UNIT-III EXCEL IN ACCOUNTING Hours: 09 Preparing common size statements directly from trial balance, forecasting financial statements using excel, analyzing financial statements by using spreadsheet model, excel in project appraisal, determining project viability. Risk analysis in project appraisal, simulation in project appraisal, excel in valuation, determination of value drivers, discontinued cash flow valuation, risk analysis in valuation. UNIT-IV EXCEL IN PORTFOLIO THEORY Hours: 09 Determining efficient portfolio, creating dynamic portfolios, portfolio insurance, fixed income portfolio management using excel, excel in derivatives black and schools model in excel, Greeks in excel, real options valuation, building a mega model. UNDERSTANDING SUBROUTINES AND FUNCTIONS AND BUILDING UNIT-V SIMPLE FINANCIAL MODELS USING SUBROUTINES AND FUNCTION Hours: 09 Recording and editing macros, subroutines and functions, decision rules, message box and input box, debugging, designing advanced financial models using visual basic application user forms, other advanced features, actual model building. UNIT-1 UNDERSTANDING THE BASIC FEATURES OF EXCEL Introduction to modeling, introduction to excel, understanding advanced features of excel database functions in excel, creating charts using forms and control toolbox, understanding finance functions present in excel, creating dynamic models. INTRODUCTION TO MODELING: Financial modeling is the construction of spreadsheet models that illustrate a company's likely financial results in quantitative terms. Financial models can simulate the effect of specific variables so that the company can plan a course of action should they occur. Financial modelling is the process by which a firm constructs a financial representation of some, or all, aspects of the firm or given security. The model is usually characterized by performing calculations and makes recommendations based on that information. The model may also summarize particular events for the end user such as investment management returns or the Sortino ratio, or it may help estimate market direction, such as the Fed model. A financial model is a mathematical representation of the financial operations and financial statements of a company. It is used to forecast future financial performance of the company by making relevant assumptions of how the company would fair in the coming financial years. It is also a risk management tool for analyzing various financial and economic scenarios and also provided valuations of assets. These models involve calculations, analyzing them and then provide recommendations based on the information gathered. A financial model generally includes projecting the financial statements such as the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement with the help of building schedules such as the depreciation schedule, amortization schedule, working capital management, debt schedule etc. It encompasses the company’s policies and restrictions imposed by lenders that would impact the financial position. DEFINITION: “The process by which a firm constructs a financial representation of some, or all, aspects of the firm or given security. The model is usually characterized by performing calculations, and makes recommendations based on that information. The model may also summarize particular events for the end user and provide direction regarding possible actions or alternatives.” TYPES OF FINANCIAL MODEL: There are various kinds of financial models that are used according to the purpose and need of doing it. Different financial models solve different problems. While majority of the financial models concentrate on valuation, some are created to calculate and predict risk, performance of portfolio, or economic trends within an industry or a region. The following are the different types of financial models: DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODEL: Among different types of Financial model, DCF Model is the most important. It is based upon the theory that the value of a business is the sum of its expected future free cash flows, discounted at an appropriate rate. In simple words this is a valuation method uses projected free cash flow and discounts them to arrive at a present value which helps in evaluating the potential of an investment. Investors particularly use this method in order to estimate the absolute value of a company. COMPARATIVE COMPANY ANALYSIS MODEL: Also referred to as the “Comparable” or “Comps”, it is the one of the major company valuation analyses that is used in the investment banking industry. In this method we undertake a peer group analysis under which we compare the financial metrics of a company against similar firms in industry. It is based on an assumption that similar companies would have similar valuations multiples, such as EV/EBITDA. The process would involve selecting the peer group of companies, compiling statistics on the company under review, calculation of valuation multiples and then comparing them with the peer group. SUM-OF-THE-PARTS MODEL: It is also referred to as the break-up analysis. This modeling involves valuation of a company by determining the value of its divisions if they were broken down and spun off or they were acquired by another company. LEVERAGED BUY OUT (LBO) MODEL: It involves acquiring another company using a significant amount of borrowed funds to meet the acquisition cost. This kind of model is being used majorly in leveraged finance at bulge-bracket investment banks and sponsors like the Private Equity firms who want to acquire companies with an objective of selling them in the future at a profit. Hence it helps in determining if the sponsor can afford to shell out the huge chunk of money and still get back an adequate return on its investment. MERGER & ACQUISITION (M&A) MODEL: Merger & Acquisitions type of financial Model includes the accretion and dilution analysis. The entire objective of merger modeling is to show clients the impact of an acquisition to the acquirer’s EPS and how the new EPS compares with the status quo. In simple words we could say that in the scenario of the new EPS being higher, the transaction will be called “accretive” while the opposite would be called “dilutive.” OPTION PRICING MODEL: On, to buy or sell the underlying instrument at a specified price on or before a specified future date”. Option traders tend to utilize different option price models to set a current theoretical value. Option Price Models use certain fixed knowns in the present (factors such as underlying price, strike and days till expiration) and also forecasts (or assumptions) for factors like implied volatility, to compute the theoretical value for a specific option at a certain point in time. Variables will fluctuate over the life of the option, and the option position’s theoretical value will adapt to reflect these changes. INTRODUCTION TO EXCEL: Excel is a spreadsheet program that is used to record and analyze numerical data. Think of a spreadsheet as a collection of columns and rows that form a table. Alphabetical letters are usually assigned to columns and numbers are usually assigned to rows. The point where a column and a row meet is called a cell. The address of a cell is given by the letter representing the column and the number representing a row. Let's illustrate this using the following image. We all deal with numbers in one way or the other. We all have daily expenses which we pay for from the monthly income that we earn. For one to spend wisely, they will need to know their income vs. expenditure. Microsoft Excel comes in handy when we want to record, analyze and store such numeric data. Running Excel is not different from running any other Windows program. If you are running Windows with a GUI like (Windows XP, Vista, and 7) follow the following steps. Click on start menu Point to all programs Point to Microsoft Excel Click on Microsoft Excel Alternatively, you can also open it from the start menu if it has been added there. You can also open it from the desktop shortcut if you have created one. For this tutorial, we will be working with Windows 8.1 and Microsoft Excel 2013. Follow the following steps to run Excel on Windows versions Click on start menu Search for Excel N.B. even before you even typing, all programs starting with what you have typed will be listed. Click on Microsoft Excel The following image shows you how to do this: UNDERSTANDING THE RIBBON: The ribbon provides shortcuts to commands in Excel. A command is an action that the user performs. An example of a command is creating a new document, printing a documenting, etc. The image below shows the ribbon used in Excel . RIBBON COMPONENTS EXPLAINED: Ribbon start button - it is used to access commands i.e. creating new documents, saving existing work, printing, accessing the options for customizing Excel, etc. Ribbon tabs – the tabs are used to group similar commands together. The home tab is used for basic commands such as formatting the data to make it more presentable, sorting and finding specific data within the spreadsheet. Ribbon bar – the bars are used to group similar commands together. As an example, the Alignment ribbon bar is used to group all the commands that are used to align data together. UNDERSTANDING THE WORKSHEET (ROWS AND COLUMNS, SHEETS, WORKBOOKS): A worksheet is a collection of rows and columns.
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