SECTION I – INTRODUCTION
A note from the leader of SOMA Crisis
Dear delegates,
Welcome to SOMA XLVIII 2.0’s Joint Crisis committee on the Future American Civil
War. After multiple challenges in planning, re-structuring and organization, we’re very happy to hold SOMA’s first online crisis session from April 23rd through 25th this year. Despite the lockdown, the covid-restrictions, the zoom fatigue and the senioritis, we were able to scrape through and write this background guide for what we hope will be an enlightening 3 days in committee. We wish you well in your preparations, and are hoping for a smooth committee experience for everyone in April.
I first joined SOMA as a delegate in Grade 9, and represented Ethiopia in the UN General
Assembly. MUN was nerve-wracking at first, but I’m happy I’ve grown both as a delegate and as a conference planner since then. I’ve learned so much about global issues, educated myself on topics occurring thousands of kilometres away from me, and become a better citizen: by being more invested in the community around me, largely thanks to MUN. Although I was really disheartened with SOMA being cancelled last year, I’m extremely happy with the progress we’ve made this year, and am proud of the crisis this year.
Usually, in any ordinary year, we’d pick a historical event for our joint crisis. This year, however, is far from usual and ordinary, so we chose to do something different. Instead of focusing on a stuffy, unknown historical event that would require immense amounts of academic research for both us and delegates, we’ve decided to make our own hypothetical, imaginative future event - a future civil war in the United States! In making the plotline and characters for this “future crisis” we’ve combined research with compelling storylines and some humour. It’s important to stress that we *are not clairvoyants nor astrologers* so if our predictions for the future come out to be wildly inaccurate, please do not hold us accountable for it. In imagining a “future crisis” we wanted it to be entertaining but also thought provoking. This past year, we’ve seen many changes in America - some that are heartening and for the better, others which are scary. We hope that our committee will lead delegates to truly ponder on the future of the USA, and figure out ways to heal the deep divides and contradictions underlying the world’s most powerful country.
It’s important to stress that I would not have been able to do any of this without the immense hard work, talent and intelligence from the 2021 SOMA Joint Crisis Team.
Phoebe Priest (Grade 12), our Senior Director of Crisis, and co-leader of Joint Crisis, thank you so much for all your support this year. Our committee would not have functioned without your diligence, motivation, and ability to push us through some of the most difficult moments. I would also be remiss without mentioning Robert Jarvi (Grade 12), who helped us immensely with planning our committee, creating our storyline, and writing this very background.
As well, we’d like to give an immense thanks to our chairs for our Joint Crisis - Brayden
Zhang, Matthew Chen, Evelyn Fallah, & Sarah Hamdi - for their hard work, preparation, time, and for volunteering to grow their leadership skills. They are all first time chairs but are extremely excited to lead the committee this year. In some ways, they remind me of when I was first a chair two years ago, and hope they can gain the confidence that I did too.
I’m truly indebted to SOMA for all these reasons, for all the things I’ve gained these past few years. I hope this year’s Crisis is as awesome as possible for you as delegates!
Sincerely,
Anirudh Ram-Mohanram - Undersecretary General of Crisis
(With significant support from) Phoebe Priest - Senior Crisis Director Introduction – What is Crisis?
The Joint Crisis for SOMA XLVIII is a future-based American Civil War Crisis based in the year 2024. This committee aims to discuss and solve the potential issues within the United
States of America as it recovers from the devastating social, political, and economic effects of the early 2020’s. Delegates will be tasked with fulfilling the needs of the states they will represent as senators during the civil unrest following the assasination of President Joe Biden and Vice
President Kamala Harris in early 2024. The following background contains a foreword from the directors of SOMA XLVIII Crisis, a general overview of what a Crisis committee entails, instructions and procedures for online Crisis committees, and an overview of the hypothetical storyline we’ve imagined from 2020-2024 and specific instructions for both sides of the joint crisis (the United Democratic States of America and the Holy Republican States of America).
Please use this background guide, as well as the guiding sections and character guides that will be provided later to write your position papers.
For those of you unfamiliar with the procedures of a Crisis, this committee differs significantly from typical Model UN committees, such as the General Assembly or the Security
Council. Rather than representing various countries in larger UN assemblies, you will be representing individual characters discussing hyper-specific issues. Crisis is fast paced, instead of picking topics and then debating them, topics are thrown at you and delegates are forced to respond. The storyline occurs in the format of “crisis updates”, which are updated aspects of the storyline shared with delegates every hour or so. We will be making short videos, as well as frequent updated on our crisis twitter page to send these crisis updates to you. Furthermore, in crisis there are “timed crisis”, where delegates will be given a crisis (i.e. a war, or a flood) and given a select amount of time (15 mins, 30 mins) to draft a proper resolution to it. Furthermore, delegates are able to send “private directives”, where they can privately move resources, or perform actions without the rest of the committee knowing. This year, the private directives will be sent via email to various members of our Crisis Staff, who will then respond with approving or disapproving the private directive’s measures. Finally, instead of the working papers and resolutions, delegates will write and pass public directives. Public directives are larger drafts of papers that multiple delegates work on to solve various issues in the committee. There will be time during unmoderated caucuses for delegates to finish writing public directives and then presenting them to the committee.
We try to simulate every aspect of a historical conflict, through economic, political, or military conquest. You will each play the role of a powerful politician (they’re all currently alive) who lived through the period of 2021-2024 leading up to the 2nd American Civil war. You will have a chance to reshape history from the beginning of the crisis in 2024, onwards. As your characters, you will create propaganda and large electoral campaigns, ensure the success of your new American legion, try to acquire new states for your side, and eventually regain control of the entire USA through military campaigns.
As this is a joint crisis, both the UDSA (democrats) and the HRSA (republicans) will be in separate online committee “rooms” (zoom calls), but communications between the two sides will be possible and frequent updates will be sent. Some cross-committee interaction will be in order. The actions of one committee will invariably affect the events occurring in the other, as the two sides are essentially fighting for control of the USA. One side will be declared the winner at the end of the committee, depending on how successful the delegates are in achieving their goals.
Please make sure to read the entire background guide so that you may understand the committee structure and procedure (especially for delegates new to the crisis format or unfamiliar with US politics). If you have any pressing concerns or questions about the committee, please feel free to email us at [email protected] and [email protected]. Content Warning - Equity and Sensitivity
As delegates will be playing the role of various US politicians, it is important to discuss how one can represent the problematic, destructive, bigoted and extremist views of many politicians without unintentionally or unironically perpetuating the same forms of bigotry. We must stress that sensitivity is needed, but besides this, it is okay to represent the problematic views of some politicians so long as it makes sense for your character given their background.
Under no circumstances should you yourself make racist, homophobic, misgynist or problematic comments aside from when your voicing the opinions of the character. Please be mindful of other delegates, and under no circumstances should you use any form of slurs or mockery designed to denigrate a racial, religious, ethnic, gender, or sexuality-based group. It can be a tricky job, so please consult your chairs and the crisis directors first if you have something you want to share in a speech that you feel might be problematic. If the behaviour of other delegates is making you uncomfortable - feel free to reach out to us during the conference and we’ll make sure to remedy all equity concerns. As SOMA is committed to social justice and mutual understanding, we will also be monitoring and taking feedback to make sure everyone is comfortable.
Online Crisis Procedures – How will crisis work this year?
Crisis committees differ greatly from other Model UN committees. They lack the usual structure of topics, resolutions, speakers’ lists, speaking times, and strict procedures, and this makes it considerably more organic and at times chaotic. Instead of specific topics being discussed with resolutions being passed after like a regular committee, crisis committees focus on the flow of events. Delegates get briefed about crisis updates and can react by speaking in front of/calling upon other delegates to act as a committee. Crisis’ fluid nature makes it very easy for it to spiral out of hand, so there are a few guidelines that have been developed to ensure that the committee remains focused, organized, and on-task, while still retaining its chaotic and fun nature. There will be a Chair and a Co-Chair in each committee that retains absolute control over who is allowed to speak, and for how long. The Co-Chairs will be rigorously trained, and understand not to abuse their privilege. They will remain impartial and will exert minimal influence over the delegates’ decisions and strategies. The chair(s) will be there to guide delegates, mainly on procedural matters but also to help delegates with the general processes required, and to ensure the committee “flows” like it should.
In an online committee, delegates will have to use the “raise hand” feature to speak. This will work in a “first raised, first called” format - and the chair will acknowledge them once their hand is up. At the same time, we understand that some people might have buggy wifi or computers. That’s why chairs will be encouraged to pick new people each time and make sure everyone is given a chance to speak.
Delegates will be able to motion for moderated caucuses, which is a timed discussion on a specific topic. Voting to pass various motions will occur with the “yes” and “no” features on Zoom. Delegates can also motion to read all public crisis directives to pass them.
Public directives will be voted on using Zoom’s “yes” and “no” features as well.
Public directives will also be shared with all delegates in a collective google folder so that everyone will have a chance to work on them or read them. When desired, the committee can motion for an unmoderated caucus, which is essentially a 5-10 minute period during which delegates can work together to solve issues, discuss or work on directives.
Sometimes, crisis updates will create situations so severe that unmoderated caucuses will be necessary to respond to these crises immediately, and there may be a series of timed crises throughout the committee sessions.
Structure and Format of crisis directives
The Committee’s decisions are articulated to Crisis Central via Directives. These state what the committee wishes to do with its resources. Directives can include anything from troop movements and hirings, to the management of resources and food supplies, to campaigning for various politicians. Public Crisis Directives must have a minimum number of writers/sponsors
(TBD) and must receive a majority vote in order to be passed to Crisis Central.
There are also Private Directives, which describe what a delegate’s character wishes to do that is independent of the Committee as a whole, using personal resources. These are top secret, and they allow characters to communicate individually with other characters from their
Committee and the opposing Committee, as well as with Crisis Central. These will be sent to
Crisis by delegates via email. Crisis staff have the right to deny a private directive if they feel that the request is ridiculous, not well thought out, or not in order. Crisis Central will use its discretion in evaluating whether or not the instruction on the Directive (both Committee and
Personal) is possible and probable, and thus whether or not it will be processed.
If a Directive is processed, it will be acknowledged as “fact.” Committees and individuals will receive frequent updates on the statuses of their directives. The members of Crisis Central have been very well trained, and have Crisis experience. Thus, we kindly ask that the delegates do not object to any of the decisions that the SOMA Crisis Staff will make. Every once in a while,
Crisis Central will interrupt the committee for a crisis update-often in a dramatic or engaging format. Delegates will expect to follow the storylines provided in these updates.
Character Guides and Position Papers
This year, our hardworking crisis staff have put together 1-page long character guides on various US politicians in our committee to help delegates. These Character guides, along with this background guide will be the material provided to Joint Crisis Delegates to create their position papers. Delegates are expected to write position papers mainly based on the guiding questions provided in this background guide, to further their vision of what they’re characters will do in committee. These position papers should be around ideally one-page long, and contain an average of 400-600 words with some room for variability. As this is a crisis committee, these papers do not have to be extremely long or extremely detailed (we don’t want this to be an extremely stressful process for delegates), but rather something that helps with your understanding of your character and provides an outline for your actions in committee.
The structure of these papers is fairly open ended, but generally speaking, all position papers should outline the specific character’s background, motivations, goals, resources, and other details that might be relevant for committee sessions. Use the 2021-2024 section of this background guide, as well as the character guide, and other background research to form a plan of what exactly you want to do in the committee. We strongly recommend using multiple sources to know your character’s politics well enough to represent their views. Delegates who would like to be considered for awards must submit a position paper, as those papers will factor into the award positions. If this is your first time writing a position paper, or if you are confused about what to write about for your own position paper, don’t hesitate to email us (below) asking us any questions. There are no bad questions, and we want to maximize everyone's learning as much as possible!
Position papers are due Monday April 19th, 2021, 4 days before the conference starts so that we can have enough time reading it. If you cannot get it in by then, we will still accept position papers up until the first night of the conference, but we would highly prefer if you could get it in before then. We want to be able to do a good job of reading them. Please email your position papers as a google document, PDF, or word document to [email protected] and [email protected] by Monday April 19th, 2021. Thanks! SECTION II
2020–2024: Future Timeline of United States Government
Biden Takes Office with Full Control of Congress
With Donald Trump and the Republican Party beaten at the ballot box, the Biden administration was set to inherit a number of crises impacting every aspect of American society.
COVID-19 continued to spread exponentially around the country, consistently setting new daily case records, and with a slow vaccine rollout, there was not much of an end in sight. The economy was in ruins, with very high unemployment, tens of thousands of lost small businesses, and the middle class losing trillions of dollars in wealth. The United States’ position on the world stage was also in serious question after 4 years of “America First” foreign policy under the
Trump Administration. Racial tensions, stoked by the killings of many Black Americans by police officers around the country, the storming of the Capitol in January of 2021, and 4 years of divisive rhetoric and actions from the commander in chief left deep divisions in the country.
While these issues were on the immediate agenda for the incoming administration, they were also faced with a slate of medium and long term crises: ballooning student debt was threatening to saddle an entire generation with limited economic mobility; climate change continued to accelerate, ready to devastate entire countries all over the world; a failing criminal justice system that continues to target communities of colour, etc. Faced with all these issues, the Biden administration had to act with haste.
Trump Impeachment 2: Electric Boogaloo
Within the first few weeks, Biden is able to install most of his cabinet positions, and the impeachment proceedings against former president Donald J. Trump began in the Senate. With almost every Senator having witnessed the carnage at the Capitol, and the Democrats in charge of the process, no witnesses were called and the trial proceeded to a vote within days. After evidence was introduced that President Trump was well aware of the danger the rioters posed to members of Congress and the Vice President, 17 Republican senators ultimately voted with all
50 Democrats to convict Trump of Incitement of Insurrection. He was the first President to ever be impeached and convicted by Congress. The Senate also barred him from holding future office, removing his ability to run any more campaigns, while his dedicated base remained important to the Republican party platform. As prosecutors began investigating the former president for crimes committed both before and during his term, he fled to Brazil to avoid prosecution. Mike
Pence, while not yet under investigation by federal officials, is recruited to the Amish and leaves his life in the public eye.
Biden’s Stimulus Passes
Soon after the conviction of Former President Donald Trump, Congress passed President
Biden’s ambitious $1.9 trillion stimulus package, over united Republican opposition. The plan is initially successful and well received, giving most Americans $1400 stimulus checks, expanded unemployment benefits, funding for a variety of different relief programs, increased virus tests, and vaccine distribution. However, as the year progresses and the virus seems to initially reduce it’s hold on American society, low trust in vaccinations, and many new variants, the virus continues to spread throughout the spring. While the summer provided a certain amount of relief, with lower transmission due to warmer temperatures and more gatherings being held outdoors, vaccination rates plateau due to continued misinformation being spread about vaccines.
Democratic Policy Plans Begin
After the Biden Administration deals with the immediate crises of COVID and unemployment, Democrats in Congress shift their sights towards the wide range of policy proposals they were elected on: Expanding voting rights, expanding infrastructure, investing in clean energy, reforming the prison system and creating a public health option were high on the priority list. However, with the filibuster still in place in the Senate, along with the 50-50 split,
Republicans block almost every major policy proposal brought forward by the Democrats. With
Congress once again stuck in gridlock, moderate Democratic Senators who were once opposed are persuaded to support abolishing the filibuster, and it is successfully removed. With the 60 vote threshold removed, Democrats quickly begin to introduce their policy proposals.
DC and Puerto Rico Statehood
One of the first initiatives passed after the abolishment of the filibuster was statehood for the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. With DC being a Democratic stronghold, and support for Democrats increasing following statehood in Puerto Rico, Democrats expanded their senate majority to 54-50, with small increases in their House majority as well. Now primed with the ability to lose a few moderate votes on contentious legislation, Biden and Congress moved to continue their policy plans.
2022
Vaccination Rollout from 2021-2022
Starting in early 2021 and taking over a year, the USA finishes it’s first vaccine rollout.
Although widely anticipated to push the US population into a state of “herd immunity”, this does not pan out. Due to widely circulated anti-vax rhetoric and baseless fears held by a large subset of the American population, only around 60% of the US population receives a vaccine, leaving the other 40% unvaccinated. Although epidemiologists were optimistic, the 60% number was not enough for the USA to reach a state of herd immunity, and community transmission continues to persist into 2022. Popular conservative media sites in the USA, such as Breitbart,
Newsmax, OAN and FOX news amplify stories about severe allergic reactions from vaccines, portraying the injections as lethal. Fake rumours spread online claiming that vaccination children under the ages of 16 could stunt their growth after Fox News host Tucker Carlson amplified a story about an Iowa teen who turned out to just be short and not stunted. The lack of vaccinated children also pushes back the school re-opening, as the unsanitary behaviour of the
USA's young population allows the virus to spread widely. Furthermore, Ex-Qanon sympathizers and conspiracy theorists cling onto the fear that Bill Gates has laced the vaccine with microchips, and believe these microchips will start controlling neurological behaviour once the
US-Wide 5G Network is established. A mass hysteria about Vaccines, aptly dubbed
“Vaccinephobia” by social scientists takes over 40-50% of the US public, leading to a complete and almost total failure of the first vaccination wave to end the pandemic in the United States.
Resurgence of New Virus Variant in 2022
Due to the failure of the US government to effectively curb it’s populous’s fears on the vaccine, 2022 becomes the year of Covid-19’s resurgence after a relatively milder 2021. In
February 2022, a new form of the virus, named “Sars-Cov-Annex-22” originates in Toronto’s
Annex behaviour due to unsanitary behaviour at a houseparty, before rapidly spreading across
Canada and the United States, replacing the Wuhan and UK variants as the endemic form of the virus in North America. The Annex Variant causes a spectacularly massive “8th wave” of the pandemic in the USA, infecting more than 20 million (many of which had been previously infected) and killing 1 million due to over-crowded hospitals and under-staffed medical facilities. Furthermore, the US public feels fatigued with Covid restrictions and a general sense of apathy and nihilism pervades the general society, leading to a mere 26% compliance with
Covid measures. By mid-2022, an estimated total of 3-5 million Americans have cumulatively died from the Virus.
Annex Variant forces Biden to abandon all reopening plans
After a broadly optimistic national outlook in 2021, the resurgence of the Annex-variant of COVID, and the failure of mass vaccination programs force Biden to temporarily abandon reopening plans. The virus’ catastrophic 8th waves and the mounting death toll push Biden into implementing a mandatory, emergency, stay-at-home order in May of 2022. This stay-at-home order is even stricter than the first one in March of 2020. Those who violate the stay-at-home order face extreme punitive measures from the government (as a form of deterrence), including house-arrests enforced by the police, extremely heavy fines ranging up to
$100,000, and the use of police brutality to keep people at home. The heavy-handed approach to the stay-at-home order by the Biden administration causes immense resentment, both from left-leaning urban areas that perceive the use of police violence to enforce the lockdown as a form of unfair treatment towards minorities, and also among poorer, uneducated,
Republican-leaning areas of the USA that tend to be primarily white and working-class.
Right-wing activists and congresswomen Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert start a
#MyRightToGoOutsideAndDie campaign on Twitter, demanding the free travel of persons and the ending of restrictions. “Left-Liberal elitists don’t realize that this lockdown is killing people livelihoods and ability to live. What’s the difference between dying outside of the “Virus” and dying at home due to a lack of food on your plate? My life, my right to die” said Marjorie Taylor
Greene in a press statement. The #MyRightToGoOutsideAndDie campaign not only spreads rapidly on social media, but leads to the underground planning of mass-protests and rebellions against the lockdowns.
The Progression of the 2022 Lockdown
The 2022 Lockdown begins on May 16th, ending only in September once the “8th wave” of the virus has largely subsided. The economic effects of this lockdown are catastrophic and lead to an almost irredeemable recession after a year of economic recovery (2021). The US
Federal debt grows by nearly 50% as the Federal government is forced to borrow every month just to feed citizens who are in dire need of food and water through stimulus checks. Although essential workers and those with white-collar office jobs are largely spared, unemployment rates nearly double due to sharp drops in consumption. After both India and China manage to make impressive recoveries due to successful mass vaccination campaigns, the US falls to the 3rd largest globally, and it’s status as a global economic superpower becomes almost laughable globally. Many members of the USA’s oligarchic and elite classes start to fear that the USA is in perpetual decline and move en masse to Europe and Australia. This only further increases the tax burden on the faltering middle class, who are themselves struggling to fend for themselves.
By this point, 8% of US households have now been evicted from their houses, with many forced to move in with family or live on the street. Rates of rough sleeping and homelessness largely skyrocket.
The Economic Destitution of the United States
The economic destitution of the general public during the 2022 lockdown leads to calls for increased financial assistance from the federal government to prevent people from suffering from poverty. Despite these calls, top US Economists and Budget Manager’s refuse to dispense additional economic aid to US Citizens, citing the fact that the USA is basically a broke nation at this point. Public anger and fury grows exponentially on both sides of the political spectrum as average citizens feel that their country has abandoned. Their are calls to oust Biden and to assassinate him for his perceived robbery of the country. In September 2022, public anger corners a desperate Biden into making a decision that might end the anger of those lockdown but will anger others: a mandatory vaccination policy.
Biden’s Mandatory Vaccination Policy
In a bid to end the lockdowns and the economic pressure placed on ordinary Americans, on September 30th 2022, President Biden signs an executive order making vaccinations mandatory, thereby kickstarting a massive campaign to vaccinate those who refused vaccines in
2021. Biden legislates that those who aren’t vaccinated will be banned from all public spaces, schools, officers, universities, and businesses. This ban will be enforced by the use of “Vaccine
ID cards” that prove someone has received a vaccine, and can therefore be in a public area.
Many Anti-Vaxxers feel unfairly targeted, claiming that they’re being unfairly persecuted and segregated from the rest of society. The Deplorable Choir release a new single:
StopAntiVaxxerDiscrimination, which trends as an audio on TikTok as people try to bring awareness to Anti-Anti-Vaxxer sentiment to light. Despite the cries from AntiVaxxers, the majority of the US public which have been vaccinated feel apathetic and even resentful, and place the blame of the continued pandemic on their AntiVax counterparts. Eventually, the social boycott of AntiVaxxers, coupled with Biden’s harsh legislature and the economic effect of being forced to stay at home for those without vaccinations works: 90% end up being vaccinated by November of 2022. Herd immunity is met, and conditions once again improve as the US opens back up and makes an economic recovery.
Mounting Backlash against Biden
Despite the overwhelming success of Biden’s mass vaccination campaign, public fury, particularly among right-leaning factions of US society grows immensely. Those who were forced into getting a vaccine feel resentful for what they see as an infringement of their rights and bodily autonomy, and old conspiracy theories about microchips in vaccines make anti-vaxers feel that they’re being tracked by the government. The mandatory vaccine campaign’s economic impacts are largely upset by the further agitation, polarization and division of the country. Biden officially becomes the most polarized figure in US history: he’s loved by almost all centrists, democrats, increasingly popular among leftists, but extremely hated by conservatives and libertarians. Survey data of the American public from December
2022 finds that 36% of self-identified Republicans would shoot Biden if given a chance, prompting security concerns and paranoia among the upper echelons of the American government.
2023
Republican Senate and House Majorities Established The beginning of 2023 was marked by especially polarized political views within the
United States of America. Conservative extremist movements like Proud Boys and QAnon gained heavy support after aggressive policies enacted by the Biden administration over the course of his term, notably the packing of the Supreme Court, as well as mandatory vaccine inoculation in late 2o22 which angered both conservatives and moderates. Marjorie Taylor
Greene, Marsha Blackburn, and Lauren Boebert gained major political recognition for the harsh criticisms of the Biden presidency, spurring a movement of younger conservatives with a focus on gun rights across the country. With growing support of conservative representatives, a
Republican majority is established in the Senate and House of Representatives in late 2022, stalling many of the future policies intended for the remainder of the Biden administration. In
January of 2023, the Senate moved to allow the carrying of concealed weapons on the Senate floor, a motion brought forward by Boebert, citing a fear for safety after the Capitol Riots of
2020. This marked the beginning of the passing of some of the most conservative bills in recent
US history furthering the proliferation of firearm sales throughout the United States, and giving business owners the ability to discriminate against LBGTQ+ customers federally.
Polarization of State and Party
By early 2o23, Coronavirus cases plateaued and the spread of the disease became almost obsolete across the US. However, unemployment rates remained the highest they had been since
2020, with much of the country still in the furls of an economic recession. Republican disdain for the Democratic presidency, and it’s supporters increased rapidly across the US. The
Birmingham Riots of 2023 marked the beginning of Repbulican aggression against Democrats in the South, with looting and arson directed towards openly democratic-supportive businesses and government officials causing a mass movement of Southern Democrats to the Northern states and West Coast to seek refuge from rising intolerance of political difference within the
States. In response, campaigns to label the GOP a terrorist organization gained low levels of support across the most liberal states, causing further regional divide of the two parties. Census statistics showed that by September of 2023, geographic segregation based on political affiliations reached the highest they had been in over 80 years , with 39 states having 90%
Republican or Democrat voting demographics. Polarization continued within both the senate and the house, with blocs of radical conservatives and liberals gaining increasing support and power within the Capitol. Most notably, a Republican counterpart to the Democratic sextet made up of Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Rashida Tlaib, Jamaal
Bowman, and Cori Bush - otherwise known as “The Squad'' was formed in mid-2023. The group, which includes Marjorie Taylor-Greene, Madison Cawthorn, and Lauren Boebert, took on the name The Snowflake Snipers, quickly gained a cult-like following from the growing extremist conversative community across the country.
Assasination of the President
With the increasing divide in the US, the favourability of a second term for President
Biden lowered significantly. Acknowledging this, the Biden-Harris administration began aggressive efforts to finish the rest of the goals of their campaign in the tightening window before the election. The most controversial of which included decreased military spending. This angered an already inflamed Republican party, with articles for impeachment of President Biden making significant progress within the conservative-dominated house. Members of the
Snowflake Snipers called for the imprisonment of President Biden and Vice-President Harris under the pretenses of corruption and violations of the constitution, however their plans were struck down early on in their introduction into the Senate. Lauren Boebert becomes an outspoken voice on social media for the increase in protests and demonstrations against the
Biden Administration, with a special focus on renouncing their federal tightening of gun ownership laws. On February 4th 2024, President Biden visits congress to give the annual State of the Union Address, briefly after beginning his speech, he is shot twice in the head by Lauren
Boebert with her legally-sanctioned concealed firearm on the Senate Floor. Vice President
Harris is shot by Boebert as well, yielding gunshot wounds in the chest and neck. Both the President and Vice President are rushed to Walter-Reed Hospital for treatment, however
President Biden is Declared dead at 10:04 P.M. that evening, whilst Vice President Harris is left unresponsive on life support. Whilst Boebert awaits trial in custody, Madison Cawthorn and
Majorie Taylor-Greene renounce their connections to her, but are ultimately removed from their government positions and are arrested for the felony of connection to the Assination of the
President. Following the Presidential line of succession after the death of a President and Vice
President, The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, becomes the interim
President of the United States.
The Aftermath and Formation of New Government
With the loss of much of the executive power within the United States, the nation is struck with confusion and anger. Democratic representatives refuse to recognize the officiality of the McCarthy Presidency, with some speculating the assasination of Biden and Harris to have been a plot more widely developed within the Republican party than previously believed.
Democratic citizens and Government officials advocate for the secession of Democratic states from the current United States government in an effort to form a new Federal Legislature. This new government system, given the name the United Democratic States of America (UDSA), is made up of the 2o historically democratic States and Territories within the former United States of America. This new government body became fully recognized by the international community and United Nations on February 18th, 2024. Similarly, a new Republican government body is formally recognized as of February 21st 2024. Known as the Holy Republican States of America
(HRSA), it comprises the 22 historically Republican states within the former United States of
America. The creation of this new governmental set-up offered temporary relief from the tensions and chaos born of the double assasination of a sitting President and Vice President, however issues quickly arose concerning the fate of the former swing states within the formed
United States. The acquisition of swing states by either the UDSA or HRSA would prove one of the two governments to be the more widely recognized and powerful on an international scale, creating a power dynamic that would leave one federal government at the mercy of another.
SECTION III
The Development and Status of the United
Democratic States of America Figure 1: Map showing the current political landscape of the former United States of America
Factions of the UDSA
While the political landscape radically shifts during the first four years of President
Biden’s first term up to the fallout from his assassination, the groups that form the base of the
Democratic Party remain fairly consistent. Many voters belong to multiple of the following groups, so for the government to continue to hold the confidence of their citizens, and fight back against the imminent propaganda of the Holy Repulican States, the President’s War Council must have the backing of at least 3 of these groups.
Party Loyalists
Representing approximately 30% of the Democratic electorate, Party Loyalists are mostly older, white and upper-middle class1. Many are politically active and define themselves with strong opposition to Former President Trump. This group supported Hilary Clinton over
Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Democratic Primary, and in the 2020 race Joe Biden was by far their candidate of choice. As longtime members of the party, they generally go along with what party elites want. They tend to trust established brands, although they also care a lot about electability. As the Democratic Party’s platforms have shifted over time, Party Loyalists tend to follow suit. As the civil war begins, they have not settled on whether a peaceful or forceful solution is preferable, and as such a large group it is important for the Council to advocate for their proposed solutions to win support.
The Left
The Left is approximately 25 percent of the Democratic electorate, is the most male and the whitest of the five Democratic groups2. However, the group is expanding and becoming more diverse, especially with younger voters. As the most ideologically driven of the Democratic groups, they want candidates who they think will pursue left-wing economic solutions, and think the status quo is broken and that capitalism doesn’t work at all or at least needs to be managed with much more government intervention. The Left doesn’t trust the establishment’s instincts on many fronts, and as such are less likely to easily follow party leaders. The Left has historically favoured lower military spending and reduced military interventionism, and in the context of the Civil War, most prefer peaceful solutions to the conflict. However, groups within The Left
1 Silver, N. (2019, January 10). The 5 corners of the 2020 Democratic primary 2 Ibid. also view the upcoming conflict as an opportunity for a revolution to bring much more radical change to American society.
Millennials and Friends
The most racially diverse of the Democratic groups, millennials were born between
1981-1996, making them 27-43 at the start of the civil war. Composing 30% of the Democratic electorate, these voters don’t have too much in common, voting for different candidates in past primaries, but generally prefer younger, “change” candidates3. This group incompasses voters who may be older than millennials, but whose interests and views often line up, such as middle aged urban voters. Ideologically, while leaning more to the left than older generations, they are less rooted to dominant political philosophies and are willing to consider a fairly wide range of alternatives. Millennials are more likely to support forceful intervention against the HRSA as a means to unite the country.
Black Voters
Making up approximately 20% of Democratic voters, Black voters have remained consistent supporters of the Democratic establishment4. A very pragmatic voting group, they prefer pragmatic candidates who have lots of experience. Traditionally more religious and socially conservative compared to most Democrats, they remain economically liberal and solid backers of most policy decisions made by the establishment. Black voters were more likely to view the secession of the UDSA negatively, and are more likely to favor reduced conflicts and efforts to expand the states under control of the UDSA.
Hispanic and Asian Voters
3Silver, N. (2019, January 10). The 5 corners of the 2020 Democratic primary 4 Ibid Hispanic voters are around 15 percent of the Democratic electorate and Asian voters are around 5 percent, so together, they make up about 20 percent of the vote. 5While Hispanic and
Asian voters hold many distinctions, they can be grouped together due to some important similarities: Both groups are made up predominantly of relatively recent waves of immigrants to the U.S. and their descendents; they tend to be concentrated in the same states as one another
(e.g. California); they prioritize similar issues; voters in both groups are younger than average and have historically had low rates of voter registration and turnout. Hispanic and Asian voters are more likely to support strong efforts to reunite the country under a UDSA government, either by force or through less aggressive means.
Military Resources
Figure 2: Map outlining military resource distribution within the former United States of America
Military resources are considered to be of utmost importance to the new formation of the
UDSA. Although engaging in democratic relations will prove to be relevant in acquiring the
5 Ibid alliance of swing states, having proper installations for protection and offensive intervention is essential in allowing for greater safety and expansion of the UDSA union. The UDSA differs from the HRSA in that the states are not almost entirely continuous. The East and West coast UDSA states are completely separated, along with New Mexico and Colorado. This presents a unique challenge, as the UDSA will have to fight on many more fronts in the event of a military confrontation, and bridging that gap may be an important strategic objective. However, the
UDSA does have a significant advantage in terms of military expenditures. The states comprising the UDSA had a total of $281 billion in combined defense expenditures in 2019, while the states comprising the HRSA had total expenditures of $99 billion.6 The states currently without allegiance to either new union within the former United States have a combined expenditure of $171 billion. The top ten states by military expenditure in billions of dollars in 2019 are as follows: California, $66.2 ; Virginia, $60.3; Texas, $54.8; Florida, $29.8;
Maryland, $26.1; Connecticut, 19.7$; Pennsylvania, $18.1; Washington, $17.8; Alabama, $16.0;
Massachusetts, 15.8$7. Military funding will be extremely important in the event of an armed conflict.
Economic Status
Maintaining a strong economy will be vital to ensuring the safety and wellbeing of the citizens of the UDSA, along with providing the government with the resources necessary to enter diplomatic relations, begin propaganda campaigns, or begin military conflicts. Currently the states encompassing the UDSA have strong diversified economies, comprising around half of the overall US GDP, placing them in a better position than the HRSA. Due to many of the presently neutral states having very strong economies, they may be early strategic targets to allow for further expansion. A potential area of concern is the reduced amount of agricultural output after the secession from the USA: much of the food production that the states in the UDSA
6Defense-Spending-State-Fiscal-Year-2019: Office of local defense community cooperation. (n.d.). 7 DOD releases report on defense spending by state in fiscal year 2019. (n.d.) would rely on now exist only in the HRSA. Currently, California and Illinois are the only states in the UDSA who have significant agricultural production8, and both states are physically separated from the North-Eastern UDSA states. This poses a significant challenge that the government will have to solve early on. As well, natural resources such as oil and natural gas, which are vital to sustaining both military operations and energy production, are also mostly found in either HRSA or neutral states. 9
Questions to Consider
● Who would be an effective and uniting Candidate for president of the UDSA?
● What strategy should the HRSA employ to acquire greater support from swing
states?
● Is offensive military strategy necessary for the stabilization of the UDSA?
● How might the UDSA and RHSA find common ground? Is there a possibility for
the unification of these two government systems once again?
Works Cited
8 14, R. (n.d.). Ranking of states with the highest agricultural receipts. 9 U.S. energy Information administration - eia - independent statistics and analysis. 14, R. (n.d.). Ranking of states with the highest agricultural receipts. Retrieved February 1, 2021, from https://beef2live.com/story-states-produce-food-value-0-107252#:~:text=California%20had%2 0the%20highest%20agricultural,%2C%20Nebraska%2C%20Texas%20and%20Minnesota.&text =Highest%20Agricultural%20Receipts-,California%20had%20the%20highest%20agricultural% 20receipts%20in%20the%20United%20States,%2C%20Nebraska%2C%20Texas%20and%20Mi nnesota.
2014 party IDENTIFICATION detailed tables. (2019, December 31). Retrieved February 1, 2021, from https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2015/04/07/2014-party-identification-detailed-tables/
Daleville Alabama living Here Fort Rucker. (n.d.). Retrieved February 1, 2021, from https://www.dalevilleal.com/LivingHere/FortRucker.aspx#:~:text=Known%20as%20the%20h ome%20of,for%20flight%20activities%20and%20training
Defense-Spending-State-Fiscal-Year-2019: Office of local defense community cooperation. (n.d.). Retrieved February 1, 2021, from https://oldcc.gov/defense-spending-state-fiscal-year-2019
DOD releases report on defense spending by state in fiscal year 2019. (n.d.). Retrieved February 1, 2021, from https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2470586/dod-releases-report-o n-defense-spending-by-state-in-fiscal-year-2019/
Religion in America: U.S. religious Data, demographics and statistics. (2020, September 09). Retrieved February 1, 2021, from https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/compare/party-affiliation/by/state/
Silver, N. (2019, January 10). The 5 corners of the 2020 Democratic primary. Retrieved February 1, 2021, from https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5-key-constituencies-of-the-2020-democratic-primary /
Smith, S. (n.d.). State by State directory of major bases in the United States. Retrieved February 1, 2021, from https://www.thebalancecareers.com/us-military-major-bases-4061575