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East Texas Economic Development District

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East Texas Economic Development District East Texas Economic Development District Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy 2019-2023 1 Table of Contents: Executive Summary 3 Summary Background 4 Regional Background and Overview 4 Population Size 5 Population Growth 5 Population by Race 9 Other Variables 10 Educational Attainment and Workforce 11 Occupations 14 Income Characteristics 15 State of the Economy 16 Infrastructure 20 Transportation 21 Housing 22 Disaster Preparedness & Economic Resiliency 22 Conclusion 23 SWOT Analysis 24 Strategic Direction & Action Plan 25 Vision Statement 25 Goals and Objectives 25 Evaluation Framework 26 2 Executive Summary: This document presents the 2019-2023 Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) for the East Texas Economic Development District (ETEDD) & East Texas Council of Governments (ETCOG), a fourteen-county region in East Texas. The purpose of a District CEDS document is to encourage and support coordinated economic growth throughout the region. This CEDS document was developed with input and collaboration by key public and private sector stakeholders, economic development specialists, and elected officials representing local and special purpose governments throughout the region. Not only does the CEDS encourage regional cooperation, it is a required component of any application for funding assistance from the Economic Development Administration (EDA). Organizations and entities interested in applying for project grants under EDA’s Public Works and Economic Adjustment Programs must demonstrate how the investment fits into the regional CEDS. As a designated Economic Development District, the East Texas Economic Development District (ETEDD) is responsible for preparing and adopting a CEDS document at least every five years. The East Texas Council of Governments (ETCOG) provides the organizational structure for the formulation of the CEDS and serves as a regional coordinating body to bring players together to assure implementation of the recommendations contained herein. Unless otherwise noted, East Texas refers to the 14-county ETCOG region when used in the document. 3 Summary Background: Regional Background and Overview: The East Texas region is characterized by small pine forests and agricultural lands with small towns and cities scattered across the fourteen counties. An improving economy as well as the physical beauty of the region has led many to see East Texas as an attractive place to live, work and retire. East Texas is sometimes considered to be in the Dallas, TX Economic Area and large portion of the region’s population falls along the I-20 corridor connecting Shreveport to Dallas. The counties that make up ETCOG and the ETEDD are: Anderson County Camp County Cherokee County Gregg County Harrison County Henderson County Marion County Panola County Rains County Rusk County Smith County Upshur County Van Zandt County Wood County East Texas was once a hub for the oil and gas industry. In 1930, the first successful well was drilled in Rusk County, Texas, marking the start of the oil boom. The region grew to include several oil refineries. In addition to oil and gas, the local economy had significant timber and agriculture investment and resources. In the 1930s, the Eastman Chemical Company built the first of several cellulose plants. The oil boom lasted into the 1980s before a sudden decline. The economy has mostly recovered from that and the economic recession of the late 2000’s. East Texas saw significant population growth of 14.2% between 1990 and 2000. While growth has continued, it has also slowed. From 2000 to 2010 the population grew by 9.5%. The population is projected to grow between 5-6% between 2010 and 2020. Population Growth: 1990-2000: 2000-2010: 2010-2020*: 14.2% 9.5% 5.5% Source: U.S. Census Bureau – 1990, 2000, 2010 Decennial Census & Texas Demographic Center, Population Projections * Projection 4 Population Size: The total estimated population of the East Texas region in 2018 is 868,728. Since 2000 the population has grown by just over 120,000 people. County by County there are relatively large differences in population size. Marion County is the smallest with an estimated population of 9,928 people in 2018, while Smith County, the largest, has an estimated population of 230,221 people. Seven of fourteen counties fall in the range of 41,000-67,000 people, with three larger and four smaller. Marion and Camp, the two newest inclusions to the East Texas Economic Development District were previously in the Ark-Tex Economic Development District, but have been a part of ETCOG since its inception in 1970. The inclusion of two additional rural counties to the district increases the need for a CEDS that addresses the needs of all member counties. 2018 Population by County 250000 230,221 225000 200000 175000 150000 123,707 125000 100000 82,299 Population 66,726 75000 58,057 54,450 56,019 52,592 45,129 50000 41,260 23,148 25000 13,033 9,928 12,159 0 Counties Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018 (PEPANNRES) Population Growth: Percent Growth Rates 2000-2018: Anderson Camp Cherokee Gregg Harrison Henderson Marion 5.3% 12.8% 12.7% 11.1% 7.4% 12.3% -9.3% Panola Rains Rusk Smith Upshur Van Zandt Wood 1.7% 33.0% 14.9% 31.8% 16.9% 16.4% 22.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau – 2000 Decennial Census & U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018 (PEPANNRES) 5 It is important to consider the growth rates of each county and not just as a whole. Rains and Smith County (encompassing Tyler, TX) have seen the largest growth, 33.0% and 31.8% since 2000. While the population of Marion County has actually decreased 9.3% since 2000. Additionally, since 2010, Anderson and Panola have joined Marion with negative growth. The two largest components of population change are Natural Increase and Domestic Migration (the other being international migration) and these are displayed in the tables. 2010-2018 Population 2010-2018 Natural 2010-2018 Domestic Change by County Increase by County Migration by County County Total County Natural County Domestic Change (# Increase Migration of people) Anderson -402 Anderson -451 Anderson -209 Camp 632 Camp 350 Camp -69 Cherokee 1,758 Cherokee 1,883 Cherokee -311 Gregg 1,962 Gregg 4,785 Gregg -4,308 Harrison 1,082 Harrison 1,681 Harrison -1,105 Henderson 3,765 Henderson -1,111 Henderson 4,477 Marion -608 Marion -589 Marion -3 Panola -648 Panola 92 Panola -897 Rains 1,243 Rains -313 Rains 1,455 Rusk 1,143 Rusk 697 Rusk 244 Smith 20,496 Smith 8,637 Smith 9,244 Upshur 1,945 Upshur 235 Upshur 1,529 Van Zandt 3,459 Van Zandt -423 Van Zandt 3,483 Wood 3,170 Wood -1,676 Wood 4,820 ETCOG: 38,997 ETCOG: 13,797 ETCOG: 18,350 U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018 (PEPTCOMP) Natural Increase is the number of births minus deaths over a certain period. A negative natural increase indicates that there were more deaths than births. Negative natural increase can also be indicative of an aging population. Overall, while the ETCOG natural increase is 13,797, six of fourteen counties saw fewer births than deaths. Domestic Migration is the number of people moving into the county minus moving out. Overall, while the ETCOG total is 18,350, seven of fourteen counties experienced losses by Domestic Migration. Overall, Natural Increase and Domestic Migration are a mixed bag, but there are troubling signs. The concern being that Natural Increase will decline as the population ages and younger, educated citizens of child-bearing age move out of the region, and that Domestic Migration will 6 decrease as the rate of people moving out of the region increases relative to those moving into the region. Efforts should be made to explore and implement what mix of services and amenities will retain and attract educated young adults. Also, the region needs higher paying jobs if it wants to maintain an educated workforce. According to projections from the Texas Demographic Center, the rate of growth for the East Texas region is expected to increase at a decreasing rate. By 2050, the region as a whole will grow by fewer than 700 people a year, whether by Natural Increase, Domestic Migration, or International Migration. This equates to the yearly growth rate dropping from 0.51% in 2018, to 0.07% by 2050. As a comparison, the State of Texas projects to continue growing at yearly rates between 1.52% - 1.66% until 2050. Population Projections for East Texas, 2017-2050 940,000 920,000 900,000 880,000 Population 860,000 840,000 820,000 2020 2037 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Year 7 Percentage of Population by Age Group under 5 years 7.20% 6.40% 5 to 14 years 14.80% 13.39% 15 to 24 years 14.30% 12.99% 25 to 34 years 14.60% 12.37% 35 to 44 years 13.50% 12.03% 45 to 54 years 12.70% 12.66% 55 to 64 years 11.10% 13.00% 65 to 74 years 7.00% 9.75% 75 to 84 years 3.40% 5.52% 85 years and over 1.30% 1.90% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% Texas ETEDD Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (S0101: Age and Sex) As with most of the country, the age of the population is quickly increasing.
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