Europe's Dragonflies on the Move

Europe’s Dragonflies on the Move Climate change impacts on dragonfly and damselfly species of the EU Habitats Directive

Anja Jaeschke, Torsten Bittner, Björn Reineking, Helmut Schlumprecht, Carl Beierkuhnlein

The GfÖ 40th Anniversary Meeting 2010, 30.08.-03.09.2010, Giessen

Context

Project: Impacts of climate change on fauna, flora and habitats as well as adaptation strategies of nature conservation

Sub-project: Occurrence probabilities of selected animal species of the Habitats Directive (HD)

Impacts of climate change on species distribution

Shifts of suitable climate space force dispersal needs  dispersal ability?

Odonata: highly mobile for a few months, less mobile for 1-3 years

Changes in species` ranges can alter protection responsibilities

Scientific Name Annex Dispersal Distance Category (HD) Aeshna viridis IV ? ? Coenagrion mercuriale II Up to 1 km observed Low Coenagrion ornatum II 200 m up to several km Low Gomphus graslinii II, IV ? ? Gomphus flavipes IV ? ? Leucorrhinia albifrons IV Up to 18 km observed High Leucorrhinia caudalis IV Up to 7 km observed Medium Leucorrhinia pectoralis II, IV Up to 27 km observed High Ophiogomphus cecilia II, IV Up to 10 km observed Medium Oxygastra curtisii II, IV ? ? Sympecma paedisca IV ?, Hint on several km Medium? Category: Low: ≤ 1 km; ≤ 10 km; ≥ 10 km

Odonata Species of the HD in Germany

Southern Damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale

Current Distribution © Edi06331 • Streams, runnels and water meadows, often with a moderate rate of flow

• Most numerous in areas where the substrate is calcareous

• Larval development: normally 2 years

• Thermophile

Picture: http://de.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Datei:C_mercuriale.jpg&filetimestamp=20100606205056 Ornate Damselfly Coenagrion ornatum

Current Distribution © S. Zoder • Frequents small, shallow, calcareous streams with a slow current

• Often associated with Carex

• Larval development: 1-2 years

• Thermophile

Photo: S. Zoder, 2010 Dark Whiteface Leucorrhinia albifrons

Current Distribution • Inhabits more oligotrophic waters with floating plants

• Larval development: at least 2 years

Picture: http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:LeucorrhiniaAlbifrons.jpg Lilypad Whiteface Leucorrhinia caudalis

Current Distribution • Associated with mesotrophic to eutrophic, acid, moorland ponds

• Sedges and floating plants such as Nymphaea and Potamogeton

©Renand • Larval development: 2 years

Picture:http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:ZierlicheMoosJungfer.jpg Yellow-spotted Whiteface Leucorrhinia pectoralis

Current Distribution • Found near small lakes and tarns with mesotrophic to eutrophic, acid water, and also small canals with a dense growth of Typha and Carex

• More thermophile (most thermophile Leucorrhinia species)

• Larval development: 2 years

Picture: http://de.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Datei:LeucorrhiniaPectoralisMale2.jpg&filetimestamp=20090525221711 Green Club-tailed Dragonfly Ophiogomphus cecilia

Current Distribution • Frequents rivers with sandy beds

• Streaming waters with

• Larval development: 2-4 years (normally 3 years)

Picture: http://de.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Datei:Ophiogomphus_cecilia_IMG_4225.jpg&filetimestamp=20081103173952 Modelling

Algorithm: Boosted Regression Trees (BRT)

Validation: 32-fold Crossvalidation

Climate model: HadCM3

Scenario: A2 (+ 3.4°C)

Period: 2021-50

Map source: http://peseta.jrc.ec.europa.eu/docs/ClimateModel.html

Modelling

Climate data: monthly values, min, max, mean

Temperature [°C] Precipitation [mm] Cloudiness [%] Vapour pressure [hPa] Equilibrium evapotranspiration Growing degree days [mm] [degree-days] Diurnal temperature range [°C]

Selection of variables with correlation < 0.7

Location: Europe, special focus on Germany

Dispersal abilities, Land cover © A. Jaeschke Results: Potential Range Loss

Species Current Potential Distribution 2021-50 [change in %] Distribution HadCM3, A2 (2007) [km²] No dispersal Specific Full dispersal dispersal ability Leucorrhinia ca. 375.369 - 64% - 39% - 35% albifrons Leucorrhinia ca. 339.921 - 73% - 59% - 35% caudalis Although these species seem to be good dispersers, climatic suitable space declines in the future!

Results: Potential Range Gain

Species Current Potential Distribution 2021-50 [change in %] Distribution HadCM3, A2 (2007) [km²] No dispersal Specific Full dispersal dispersal ability Leucorrhinia ca. 482.557 - 67% + 34% + 37% pectoralis Ophiogomphus ca. 621.184 - 18% + 8% + 9% cecilia These species have the ability to reach future suitable habitats if dispersal is not limited by barriers!

Results: Dispersal limited

Species Current Potential Distribution 2021-50 [change in %] Distribution HadCM3, A2 (2007) [km²] No dispersal Specific Full dispersal dispersal ability Coenagrion ca. 218.385 - 73% - 65% + 23% ornatum Coenagrion ca. 286.327 - 71% - 52% + 7% mercuriale Potential winner, but low dispersal ability limits reaching future suitable climate space!

Implications for Nature Conservation

Focus Germany

Potential gain Potential loss Potential stable Leucorrhinia pectoralis Coenagrion ornatum Ophiogomphus cecilia + 40% - 100% ±0% Leucorrhinia albifrons - 100% Leucorrhinia caudalis - 95% Coenagrion mercuriale - 70%

Germany seems to be highly responsible for the protection of these species in the future!

Implications for Nature Conservation

Protection responsibilities will change!

Dependance on scenario and time period!

Further research required!

Management options: • Connecting habitats  Facilitate dispersal

• Improve habitat quality

• Assisted migration?!

They should!

They could! At least some…

They will? Thank you for your attention!

For further information on the project: http://www.bayceer.uni-bayreuth.de/KLINAT-FFH/ References

• Askew, R.R. (2004): The Dragonflies of Europe, 2nd revised edition, Harley Books, 308pp.

• Boudot, J.-P. et al. (2009): Atlas of the Odonata of the Mediterranean and North Africa, Libellula Supplement 9, GdO, Börnsen, 256pp.

• Petersen, B. et al. (2003): Das europäische Schutzgebietssystem Natura 2000, Bd. 1, Bundesamt für Naturschutz, Bonn – Bad Godesberg, 743pp. Data Source

Leucorrhinia pectoralis, current • Olsvik, H. & Dolmen, D. (1992): Distribution, habitat, and conservation status of threatened Odonata in Norway, Fauna norv. Ser. B 39: 1-21

• European Environment Agency (EEA): Article 17 reports (2007)

• Swiss Biological Records Center (http://lepus.unine.ch/carto/)

• Boudot, J.-P. et al. (2009): Atlas of the Odonata of the Mediterranean and North Africa, Libellula Supplement 9, GdO, Börnsen, 256pp. Used Dispersal Distances

Species Distance Larval Max. Distance Development 2007- 2035 (2021-50) C. mercuriale 1km 2 years 14km

C. ornatum 1km 2 years 14km

L. albifrons 18km 2 years 252km

L. caudalis 7km 2 years 98km

L. pectoralis 27km 2 years 378km

O. cecilia 10km 3 years 93km