By Rhodes Cook “When the partisan balance is as close as it is now, it does not take much of a change to have major ramifications.” Getty Images Fit To Be Tied The battle to control Congress in 2002 ne of the working assumptions about this year’s midterm elections is that whatever changes take place on Capitol Hill Owill be incremental in number. But even if that turns out to be the case, the 2002 congressional elections will be much more than a pit stop between presidential campaigns. When the partisan balance is as close as it is now—a Republican majority of five seats in the House, a Democratic edge of one seat in the Senate— it does not take much of a change to have major ramifications. Rhodes Cook is the author of a number of And there are significant forces at play this year that could alter the election-related books, including composition of Congress not just by a little, but by a lot—a result that “America Votes.” He also hosts the politi- might push one party, or the other, into clear control on Capitol Hill and cal website, www.rhodescook.com. possibly move the nation into a new political era. 26 Public Perspective, November/December 2002 Figure 1 The Evolution of a Tie Since 1990, the Democrats have controlled Congress for a few years, followed by the Republicans for a few years. Since mid-2001, Democrats have run the Senate and Republicans the House of Representatives. What’s next? Senate House Democrats Republicans Plurality Democrats Republicans Plurality 1990 56 44 D 12 267 167 D 100 1992 57 43 D 14 258 176 D 82 1994 47 53 R 6 204 230 R 26 1996 45 55 R 10 207 227 R 20 1998 45 55 R 10 211 223 R 12 2000 50 50 R 0 212 221 R 9 10/02 50 49 D 1 211 223 R 12 Note: Totals reflect the results of each election with the exception of the election eve figures from early October 2002. In that set of House totals, vacant seats are assigned to the party that last held them. Republicans had control of the Senate after the 2000 election, with GOP vice president Dick Cheney available to cast tie-breaking votes. Democrats gained control of the Senate in the spring of 2001 when Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont became an independent. Source: Vital Statistics on Congress 1999-2000. or much of the twentieth cen- president (George W. Bush) and a n arrow in the Democrats’ tury, change in Washington’s Republican Congress; and most re- quiver is the simple matter of Fpartisan dynamic moved at a cently, a Republican president, a Re- Ahistory. The president’s party plodding pace. For most of the first publican House and a Democratic in Congress almost always loses ground third of the century, the Republicans Senate (see Figure 1). in midterm elections, an average of 25 controlled both the White House and seats in the House and four seats in the Congress. For most of the second In short, the virtual tie that exists now Senate each time since the end of World third, the Democrats controlled both has been building over the past decade, War II. ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. And for to the point that if one adds together the quarter century that followed, from the nationwide House vote for the five If the focus is only on postwar Repub- 1969 through 1992, the nation’s capi- elections conducted since the last round lican presidents at their first midterm— tal frequently boasted “divided gov- of congressional redistricting in 1992, Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1954, Rich- ernment,” with a Republican presi- the result is a virtual dead heat. A total ard Nixon in 1970, Ronald Reagan in dent and a Democratic Congress. of 203.9 million votes were cast for 1982, and George Bush in 1990—the Republican House candidates and average GOP loss is reduced to 16 seats Yet the back and forth of national 202.5 million for Democrats, result- in the House and none in the Senate. politics has accelerated over the past ing in a GOP plurality of just 1.4 Yet even a replication of those num- decade, with neither party able to million votes out of more than 400 bers this fall would not be good enough gain a firm grip on either the White million cast in national elections from for congressional Republicans either House or Congress. The result, since 1992 through 2000. to hold the House or regain the Senate. 1992, has been five different combi- nations running the federal govern- But if the past decade tells us any- Still, it is an open question how much ment: a Republican president (George thing, it is that the political dynamic history still applies in midterm elec- Bush) and a Democratic Congress; a is always in motion, always changing. tions. In the last such vote in 1998, Democratic president (Bill Clinton) And each party has some significant when President Clinton’s impending and a Democratic Congress; a Demo- advantages this fall as it seeks to break impeachment was the focus of atten- cratic president (Clinton) and a Re- the partisan balance on Capitol Hill tion, Democrats actually gained five publican Congress; a Republican in its favor. seats in the House and held their Public Perspective, November/December 2002 27 Figure 2 midterm election since Popular President, Party Benefits Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1942. Although Bush’s Generally, the higher a president’s job approval rating during the midterm election year, the better his popularity slipped a little party does in November. The figure below indicates job approval ratings for postwar presidents on throughout the spring and election eve, and the change in congressional seats for the president’s party. summer, it has remained high. And regardless of Change in seats for presidents party where he stands in the eyes Election Senate House Presidents with high approval ratings of the voters come Election Bill Clinton (D) 66% 1998 0 +5 Day, he has already proved a mighty boon for Republi- Ronald Reagan (R) 63% 1986 -8 -5 cans at the cash register, raising tens of millions of John F. Kennedy (D) 61% 1962 +3 -4 dollars for GOP candidates. Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) 61% 1954 -1 -18 ne of the most compelling ques- Presidents with moderate approval ratings O tions to be an- George Bush (R) 58% 1990 -1 -8 swered by this November’s vote is whether the unusual Richard M. Nixon (R) 58% 1970 +2 -12 strength shown by the president’s party in 1998 was Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) 57% 1958 -13 -48 an aberration or is the new norm for midterm elections. Gerald R. Ford (R) 54% 1974 -5 -48 Presidents with low approval ratings Certainly, it seems, congres- sional politics has been in a Jimmy Carter (D) 49% 1978 -3 -15 “dead ball” era. Gone is the old quality of ebb and flow, Bill Clinton (D) 46% 1994 -8 -52 with scores of House mem- bers pulled into office on Lyndon B. Johnson (D) 44% 1966 -4 -47 the coattails of a popular Ronald Reagan (R) 42% 1982 +1 -26 president, only to be de- feated in the succeeding Harry S Truman (D) 39% 1950 -6 -29 midterm election when he is not on the ballot. Harry S Truman (D) 33% 1946 -12 -45 What ebb and flow there Source: Surveys by the Gallup Organization. Congressional data are from Vital Statistics on Congress 1999-2000. has been in recent elections has had a nickel and dime quality to it, with the con- ground in the Senate. It marked the of the 1998 balloting, the Gallup poll spicuous exception of the political tsu- first time since the New Deal election registered two-thirds of Americans ap- nami in 1994 that swept the Republi- of 1934 that the president’s party had proving of his presidency (if not his cans into power on both sides of Capi- not lost House seats in midterm vot- personal behavior). And by and large, tol Hill. With easy targets on the ing, and was only the fourth time since the higher a president’s approval num- decline and the cost of campaigns on 1934 that the president’s party had not bers, the better his party’s showing in the rise, the parties hotly contest fewer lost Senate seats in a midterm election. the midterm voting (see Figure 2). and fewer districts. Clinton’s name was not on the ballot in This year, Bush’s high approval rat- hat is the case again this year, 1998. But ironically, throughout the ings should be an asset to congres- although redistricting adds an year the beleaguered president enjoyed sional Republicans. He began the year Telement of unpredictability to some of the highest job approval num- at 84% in the Gallup poll, the highest the House elections. Except in the bers of his administration. On the eve opening mark for any president in a seven states with a single representa- 28 Public Perspective, November/December 2002 tive, all House members must run this and once for Gore, each have a pair of much the same way that the Cuban fall in districts that have been at least Republican senators. missile crisis raised the stature of the slightly altered to reflect population young Democratic president, John F. changes over the past decade. Altogether, more than two-thirds of Kennedy, in the fall of 1962. the Senate seats that switched party That roils the normally settled waters at hands in the past three midterm elec- The events of that October 40 years least a bit for House incumbents and tions (11 of 15) were in states that were ago also dramatically affected the year’s could put a few more at risk than would carried by the other party’s presiden- elections, as the Democrats made the normally be the case.