2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
APRIL 8, 2021
NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: SAF Trevon Moehrig, TCU
*FS/SS grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update info as it becomes available.
Things like this fascinate for some odd reason…group-think fueled things that don’t make any sense at all. Group-think things like – how did Trevon Moehrig become not only EVERYONE in football’s #1 ranked safety…there’s not even a close #2? Group-think so powerful that Moehrig is not only the #1 safety…he’s a mid-1st-round draft pick projection?
How? Why? What’s the ‘elevator speech’ case for him as CLEARLY the best safety?
His size is good (6’0.5”/202).
His Pro Day athleticism was ‘meh’/OK.
There’s nothing special/standout about Moehrig physically at all. Nothing terrible, but nothing to make you go ‘whoa’.
His tape is fine. It’s not the best I’ve seen…it’s not the worst I’ve seen. He looks like a solid NFL safety.
He’s a good safety. He’s an NFL safety…a free safety.
Trevon Moehrig is ‘OK/good’… but he’s not ‘great’. And if that’s true – what is everyone basing their ‘no dissension’ top safety prospect in the 2021 draft class on here? I just watched/studied Richie Grant before Moehrig. Grant is about the same size, about the same athlete/a little better/faster athlete. Grant had better numbers in college. Grant is a better tackler. Grant is stellar in coverage, and though Moehrig is really good in coverage, he’s not as good as Grant (rare are). There’s nothing about Moehrig’s game you could say is clearly better than Grant’s – but, OK, 1,000 out of a 1,000 websites and scouting services have Moehrig as the far and away #1 safety. Makes sense…???
Caden Sterns is going to be in this discussion for ‘best safety’. Andre Cisco might make a run at being in the discussion. There’s no way Moehrig is the far and away #1 safety…but, when you get people doing rankings for their employer and they have to rank things – they go see who everyone else says is the best at a boring position like safety -- and then they follow it/copycat it. Who is a really a ‘safety whisperer’ analyst anyway? I’ll bet 995+ of the 1,000 websites and ranking services who pushed Moehrig to the top haven’t watched more than 2-5 minutes of Moehrig’s work – and for sure haven’t gone deeper on Caden Sterns and/or Devine Deablo…and/or Israel Mukuamu, among other interesting safety prospects.
College Football Metrics| 1
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
APRIL 8, 2021
A year ago, they were all with Jevon Holland as the clear-cut top safety for 2021. Now, they are all (magically) with Trevon Moehrig. Funny how that happens? Just a thousand out of thousand coincidence…
I’m riled up because it’s not fair to the other top safeties that the ‘pressure of the consensus’ is going to get Moehrig an opportunity and payday he doesn’t deserve, while simultaneously holding back other safeties and taking away potential income. The difference of being taken middle 1st-round vs. middle 2nd-round is about $11M guaranteed and $14M more in their contract over four years…and the 1st- rounder is too expensive to cut the first three years while the 2nd-rounder leaves the option to eat some money to ditch…it’s even worse comparing 1st to 3rd/4th/5th-rounds, etc.
OK, off my soapbox…and back onto Moehrig. BUT…my diatribe matters to set the tone for making sure WE don’t get blinded by the fact that 1,000 of 1,000 football people claim Moehrig as the top guy – it doesn’t make any sense, it doesn’t cement the debate (or lack thereof). If it was 750 of 1,000, then it would have more weight. The full consensus thing should raise all the alarm levels.
Now, Moehrig is a good football player/safety He might even actually be the best safety prospect in this class. I don’t think he is, but he’s definitely in the top 3-5 names/options…just not the generational #1 safety in this class.
Moehrig is a sound football player. Watching his tape, I saw few real flaws…but I also didn’t see ‘wow’. He’s just rock solid good. His best attribute is his pass coverage – he has a very instinctual coverage ability. He makes very smart cuts…almost knowing where the receiver is going before the receiver does. That’s a true gift. But Moehrig’s gift is more in the ‘playing off’ in coverage and protecting downfield. He’s not an in-your-face coverage guy, although he might be fine doing that – his preference, on tape, is to float around as a free safety – and opportunist in coverage like Minkah Fitzpatrick. Not as good an athlete as Fitzpatrick, but a better coverer perhaps.
Moehrig is a solid tackler. Not a monster who wipes out ballcarriers but not a shrinking violet either. He’s so-so as a run stopper and so-so one-on-one must-make-the-open-field-tackle guy. He’s capable/solid enough tackling for the NFL. His real gift lies in dropping back into coverage – and that has its place in the league.
Off the field, Moehrig seems like a quality young man. Very smart, thoughtful, happy/smiling dealing with the press. He was a team captain. He is serious about football. No red flags in the character department from my study.
Moehrig is a legit NFL safety prospect. Although he’s not showing any major ‘A’ attributes, he is showing ‘B’ and ‘C’ grade ones, with no real D/F ones. He’s going to make it in the NFL. He’ll do fine when shoved into the opportunity. However, he’s not a ‘special’ or ‘generational’ safety prospect…and he’s not CLEARLY/UNDENIABLY the best safety prospect in this draft. At best, you classify him among the 3-5 best safeties in this draft.
College Football Metrics| 2
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
APRIL 8, 2021
Trevon Moehrig, Through the Lens of Our SAF Scouting Algorithm:
-- Won the Jim Thorpe Award for the nation’s top defensive back in 2020…how/why, I have no idea.
He averaged 4.7 tackles per game. Had 2 TFLs all season with no sacks. He picked off 2 passes and had 9 PDs. Those are solid/OK numbers – but not ‘best’.
For comparison, current NFL fringe starting safety (who no one cares about, but the computer shows some Moehrig match with) Xavier Woods averaged 6.5 tackles per game in his final college season in 2019 and had 6.5 TFLs/3.0 sacks while picking off 5 passes with a forced fumble/return for a TD…and no one cared.
Richie Grant just averaged 8.0 tackles per game in 2020 with 3.5 TFLs/1.0 sacks, picking off 3 passes with 5 PDs and 2 forced fumbles in 9 games (one fewer than Moehrig)…numbers WAY better than Moehrig, but he doesn’t win the Jim Thorpe Award over Moehrig?
The Moehrig push is near criminal. Richie Grant, among others, should sue all of football’s hive mind analysts for malfeasance and dereliction of duty in their lazy 2020 copycat rankings.
2021 Pro Day:
6’0.5”/202, 9.75” hands, 30.6” arms (short arms)
4.50 40-time, 1.59 10-yd, 2.57 20-yd
4.18 shuttle, DNP three-cone
14 bench press reps, 33” vertical, DNP broad jump
The Historical SAF Prospects to Whom Trevon Moehrig Most Compares Within Our System:
A better all-around Minkah Fitzpatrick is good for the NFL but note that Fitzpatrick was also overhyped…which is why the new Miami regime couldn’t dump him fast enough to the new sucker NFL team, the Pittsburgh Steelers…who now regret that deal. Doesn’t mean Fitz isn’t a decent NFL player…and Moehrig will be too. But the value for the cost is not even close to ‘valuable’ on them.
College Football Metrics| 3
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
APRIL 8, 2021
Overall Last First Yr College H HT Weig Tackle Speed Strong Free T ht Strngth Cover Safety Safety Metrics Metric 7.040 Moehrig Trevon 2021 TCU 6 0.5 202 5.79 8.27 34% 66% 6.944 Fitzpatrick Minkah 2018 Alabama 6 0.1 204 4.36 7.21 13% 87% 6.998 Griffin Cedric 2006 Texas 6 0.1 199 6.25 7.41 31% 69% 7.204 Jenkins Malcolm 2009 Ohio St 6 0.1 204 5.83 10.72 45% 55% 7.385 Woods Xavier 2017 La Tech 5 11.1 197 7.55 8.09 39% 61% 5.486 Starling Jawanza 2013 USC 6 0.6 202 3.38 7.88 19% 81%
*The ratings are based on a 1–10 rating scale, but a prospect can score over 10.0+ and less than 0.0. OVERALL RATING -- We merge the data from physical measurables, skill times/counts from the NFL Combine/Pro Days, with college performance data available on pass coverage/tackles, etc. and grade it compared to our database history of all college SS/FS prospects, with a focus on which SS/FS prospects went on to be good-great-elite in the NFL. We found characteristics/data points that the successful NFL SS/FS's had in common in college, that most other SS/FS prospects could not match/achieve. Scoring with a rating over a 7.0+ in our system is where we start to take a SS/FS prospect more seriously. Most of the future NFL-successful college SS/FS prospects scored 8.0+ in our system, and most of the NFL-superior FS/SSs pushed ratings more in the 9–10.0+ levels overall. Future NFL busts will sneak into the 8.0+ rating range from time to time. TACKLE/STRENGTH METRIC -- A combination of physical measurables and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the SS/FS as one more likely to be involved in a heavy amount of tackles, forced fumbles, and physical hits to separate a WR from the ball. It also gives some insight into the "toughness" of a player, if it is possible to quantify that (this is our attempt to). SPEED/COVERAGE METRIC -- A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements as well as college performance. A unique measuring system to look for SS/FS prospects that profile for superior coverage skills and abilities.
2021 NFL Draft Outlook:
Again, 1,000 of 1,000 people have Moehrig as the top safety in the draft, middle of the 1st-round pick – so, I’m sure that’s EXACTLY what will happen.
Free safety prospects are among the least valuable in all the NFL. It’s a lower value/very oversupplied position with plenty of talented guys available day three of any draft. So, if I were an NFL GM – I’d never
College Football Metrics| 4
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
APRIL 8, 2021
make this pick for the price it’s going to go for. Moehrig is ‘undraftable’ for me at the price. If your favorite NFL team makes this pick in the first 30-60 or so picks, know your favorite team’s personnel department has no business sense at all.
NFL Outlook:
I’m sure Moehrig is going to be the first safety drafted and will be pushed to play ASAP…and he’ll do fine. He might gain attention for his nice cover skills early on, but then as time drags on people will realize the folly of choosing him 1st-round and he’ll be a forgettable but solid safety who people will forget was overhyped his rookie season.
In 2019, everyone went wild for Xavier McKinney and Grant Delpit as the top safeties. How much do you care just a year later?
Antoine Winfield and Jeremy Chinn, ultimately the best two safeties in the 2020 draft…were the #4 and #5 taken safeties in the 2020 draft. The consensus #1 safety doesn’t really mean much…an ominous sign for Moehrig ahead.
Copyright Statement
Copyright at date and time signed below by R.C. Fischer
All rights reserved. All content is for entertainment purposes only and TFA is not responsible or liable for personal adverse outcomes nor are any game results or forecasting guaranteed. Past results do not predict future outcomes. We are not held liable for any personal loses incurred. We are solely here to produce and provide content for recreational purposes. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, email the publisher at [email protected]
Signature______Date______4/8/2021
College Football Metrics| 5