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AXSB in Equity 26Jul21 RU

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AXSB in Equity 26Jul21 RU India Equity Research Banks July 26, 2021 AXIS BANK RESULT UPDATE KEY DATA Right moves in rough times Rating BUY Sector relative Outperformer Price (INR) 756 12 month price target (INR) 870 Axis Bank’s (Axis) Q1FY22 PAT of INR21.6bn surpassed our estimate on Market cap (INR bn/USD bn) 2,318/31.2 higher revenue traction and controlled credit cost. As anticipated, Free float/Foreign ownership (%) 85.5/48.2 What’s Changed covid impacted asset quality with slippages running high at 4.2%, Target Price >80% from retail (akin to peers). The bank continues to follow Rating/Risk Rating ⚊ tightened provisioning policy and did not utilise covid buffer. QUICK TAKE Recurrent covid wave has caused uncertainties, but we see buffers (>80bps of loans) to contain fallout. Business momentum is on track. Above In line Below Profit With crucial comfort on equity sanctity, franchise strength and likely Margins medium-term credit cost unwind, Axis remains amongst our top Revenue Growth banking picks representing ‘smart beta’. Maintain ‘BUY’ with revised Overall TP of INR870 (earlier INR805; roll by a quarter; multiple unchanged). FINANCIALS (INR mn) Covid impacts asset quality; provisions buffer comforting Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Slippages came in higher at INR65bn (4.2%), largely from retail segment contributing Revenue 407428 440773 510012 580634 >80% to slippages (a trend akin to peers). Meanwhile, higher write-offs (system PPoP 234381 257022 313242 363098 Adjusted profit 16272 65884 139330 177997 driven) restricted headline GNPLs rise to 3.85% (3.7% in FY21). In the interim, the Diluted EPS (INR) 5.8 21.5 45.5 58.1 bank continued to follow prudent provisioning norms and didn’t utilise buffer EPS growth (%) (68.3) 272.9 111.5 27.8 created earlier. Restructured book is mere 0.4% of loans, way lower than RoAE (%) 2.1 7.1 12.9 14.4 anticipated, and the bank carries 23% provision on this (regulatory requirement of P/E (x) 131.1 35.2 16.6 13.0 10%). We believe the bank’s high provisioning buffer and lower incremental stress P/ABV (x) 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0.3 0.4 will seed the possibility of material write-backs. This renders Axis one of the likely earnings growth leaders as unwind of excess provisioning starts. PRICE PERFORMANCE Business momentum on track 800 54,000 Axis posted steady growth momentum with 12% YoY loan growth coming across 720 50,400 segments–retail 14% YoY, SME 18% YoY and corporate 8% YoY. Management 640 46,800 highlighted that retail (secured) disbursements have seen steady improvement in 560 43,200 exit month and expects the momentum to sustain. In FY22, we expect reported NIM 480 39,600 400 36,000 to improve as unwind of interest income reversal plays through. Rising momentum Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 in deposit franchise combines with this tactical buffer of conservative interest AXSB IN Equity Sensex recognition to improve NIM outlook. Outlook and valuations: Increased equity sanctity; maintain ‘BUY’ Explore: Axis’s performance has been volatile on the asset front despite significant liability gains. Overdue retail/SME accounts and performance of corporate assets will, therefore, be keenly monitored. However, excess provisioning and strong capital base goes a long way in increasing perceived equity sanctity. We maintain ‘BUY/SO’. Financial model Podcast Financials Year to March Q1FY22 Q1FY21 % Change Q4FY21 % Change Net Revenue 1,13,484 95,720 18.6 122,233 7.2 Pre-provisioning Profits 64,160 58,444 9.8 68,647 6.5 Reported Profits 21,602 11,122 94.2 26,771 (19.3) Video Corporate access EPS 7.0 3.9 79.5 8.7 (19.5) Santanu Chakrabarti Prakhar Agarwal Parth Sanghvi +91 (22) 4342 8680 +91 (22) 6620 3076 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited AXIS BANK Financial Statements Income Statement (INR mn) Balance Sheet (INR mn) Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Net interest income 2,52,062 2,92,391 3,36,645 3,82,685 Equity capital 5,643 6,128 6,128 6,128 Non interest income 1,55,366 1,48,382 1,73,366 1,97,948 Reserves 8,43,835 10,09,903 11,42,480 13,08,998 Fee and forex income 1,14,222 1,09,357 1,25,067 1,43,244 Net worth 8,49,479 10,16,030 11,48,607 13,15,125 Misc. income 16,944 13,555 18,299 24,704 Sub bonds/pref cap 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Investment profits 24,200 25,470 30,000 30,000 Deposits 64,01,049 70,73,061 80,91,582 92,16,311 Net revenues 4,07,428 4,40,773 5,10,012 5,80,634 Borrowings 14,74,541 14,23,732 14,16,354 14,25,566 Operating expense 1,73,046 1,83,752 1,96,770 2,17,536 Other liabilities 4,21,579 4,43,362 4,99,225 5,82,097 Employee exp 53,210 61,640 67,471 75,719 Total 91,51,648 99,61,184 1,11,60,768 1,25,44,099 Other opex 1,19,836 1,22,111 1,29,299 1,41,817 Assets Preprovision profit 2,34,381 2,57,022 3,13,242 3,63,098 Loans 57,14,242 62,37,202 70,23,089 81,88,922 Provisions 1,85,339 1,68,963 1,27,046 1,25,133 Investments 15,67,343 22,61,196 21,68,842 22,91,074 PBT 49,042 88,058 1,86,196 2,37,965 Cash & equi 9,72,683 6,17,298 9,56,373 9,80,072 Taxes 32,770 22,174 46,866 59,968 Fixed assets 43,129 42,450 40,140 37,651 PAT 16,272 65,884 1,39,330 1,77,997 Other assets 8,54,252 8,03,038 9,72,323 10,46,380 Extraordinaries 0 0 0 0 Total 91,51,648 99,61,184 1,11,60,768 1,25,44,099 Reported PAT 16,272 65,884 1,39,330 1,77,997 BV/share (INR) 301.1 331.6 374.9 429.3 Diluted EPS (INR) 5.8 21.5 45.5 58.1 ABV/share (INR) 277.8 315.6 358.8 415.5 DPS (INR) 0 0 2.0 3.4 Capital adequacy (%) 17.5 19.1 18.3 17.5 Important Ratios (%) Balance Sheet Ratios (%) Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Yield on advances 9.1 8.0 8.5 8.5 Credit growth 15.5 9.2 12.6 16.6 Yield on investments 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.6 Deposit growth 16.7 10.5 14.4 13.9 Yield on assets 8.0 7.3 7.6 7.6 EA growth 12.0 10.4 11.3 12.9 Cost of funds 4.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 SLR ratio 17.1 22.0 18.5 17.5 Cost of deposits 4.7 3.8 4.0 4.0 C-D ratio 91.5 90.3 88.7 90.6 Net interest margins 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 Low-cost deposits 41.2 44.9 43.2 43.5 Spread 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Gross NPA ratio 5.0 3.9 3.5 2.1 Cost-income 42.5 41.7 38.6 37.5 Net NPA ratio 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.7 Tax rate (66.8) (25.2) (25.2) (25.2) Provision coverage 69.0 72.4 72.7 66.8 Assumptions (%) ROA Decomposition (%) Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E GDP (YoY) 4.8 (6.0) 7.0 6.0 NII/Assets 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 Inflation (Avg) 4.3 5.0 3.5 4.0 Fees/Assets 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 USD/INR (average) 70.7 75.0 73.0 72.0 Inv profits/Assets 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Repo rate (exit rate) 4.4 3.5 3.5 4.0 Net revenues/assets 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 Credit growth 11.0 13.0 15.0 15.0 Opex/Assets (2.2) (2.1) (2.0) (2.0) Deposit growth 12.0 14.0 15.0 15.0 Provisions/Assets (2.4) (1.9) (1.3) (1.2) Inc yield on advances 9.1 8.0 8.5 8.5 Taxes/Assets (0.4) (0.3) (0.5) (0.6) Inc cost of deposits 4.7 3.8 4.0 4.0 Total costs/Assets (5.0) (4.3) (3.8) (3.7) Tax rate (66.8) (25.2) (25.2) (25.2) RoA 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.6 Low-cost deposits 41.2 44.9 43.2 43.5 Equity/Assets 9.7 10.7 11.2 11.4 Incremental slippages 3.6 2.9 2.9 2.2 RoAE 2.1 7.1 12.9 14.4 Valuation Metrics Valuation Drivers Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Diluted PE (x) 131.1 35.2 16.6 13.0 EPS growth (%) (68.3) 272.9 111.5 27.8 Price/BV (x) 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.8 RoAE (%) 2.1 7.1 12.9 14.4 Price/ABV (x) 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 Net NPA ratio (%) 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.7 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0.3 0.4 Payout ratio (%) 0 0 4.4 5.9 Source: Company and Edelweiss estimates 2 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited AXIS BANK Financial snapshot Year to March Q1FY22 Q1FY21 Growth (%) Q4FY21 Growth (%) FY21A FY22E FY23E Interest on advances 1,18,815 1,24,940 (4.9) 1,15,475 2.9 4,79,189 5,60,525 6,43,350 Interest expenses 82,432 94,602 (12.9) 79,395 3.8 3,44,062 3,93,156 4,34,128 Net interest income 77,603 69,853 11.1 75,550 2.7 2,92,391 3,36,645 3,82,685 Other income 35,882 25,867 38.7 46,683 (23.1) 1,48,382 1,73,366 1,97,948 Fee income 30,892 19,647 57.2 46,683 (33.8) 1,22,912 1,43,366 1,67,948 Operating expenses 49,324 37,276 32.3 53,586 (8.0) 1,83,752 1,96,770 2,17,536 Staff expense 18,519 14,061 31.7 16,676 11.1 61,640 67,471 75,719 Other opex 30,805 23,215 32.7 36,910 (16.5) 1,22,111 1,29,299 1,41,817 Pre prov Op profit (PPoP) 64,160 58,444 9.8 68,647 (6.5) 2,57,022 3,13,242 3,63,098 Investment gains 4,990 6,220 (19.8) 0 25,470 30,000 30,000 Provisions 35,320 44,164 (20.0) 32,950 7.2 1,68,963 1,27,046 1,25,133 Profit before tax 28,840 14,280 102.0 35,697 (19.2) 88,058 1,86,196 2,37,965 Provision for tax 7,239 3,158 129.2 8,926 (18.9) 22,174 46,866 59,968 Profit after tax 21,602 11,122 94.2 26,771 (19.3) 65,884 1,39,330 1,77,997 Diluted EPS (INR) 7.0 3.9 78.4 8.7 (19.4) 21.5 45.5 58.1 Ratios 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 NII / GII 48.5 42.5 48.8 45.9 46.1 46.9 Cost - income 43.5 38.9 43.8 41.7 38.6 37.5 Provisions / PPOP 55.0 75.6 48.0 65.7 40.6 34.5 Tax rate 25.1 22.1 25.0 25.2 25.2 25.2 Balance sheet data 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Advances (INR bn) 6,149 5,488 12.0 6,144 0.1 6,237 7,023 8,189 Deposits (INR bn) 7,139 6,157 16.0 6,980 2.3 7,073 8,092 9,216 Investments (INR bn) 2,399 1,873 28.1 2,261 6.1 2,261 2,169 2,291 Ratios CASA Ratio (%) 43.0 41.0 42.0 44.9 43.2 43.5 Capital adequacy (%) 18.7 17.3 19.1 17.5 19.1 18.3 NIM(%) 3.5 3.4 3.6
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