Education Select Committee's Report

MEMORANDUM TO THE EDUCATION SELECT COMMITTEE

Multiple Entry to GCSEs

July 2013

Introduction

1. The Education Select Committee’s report on the administration of examinations for 15-19 year olds in England1 recommended that the Government should “ask Ofqual to gather data from the exam boards to enable it to identify the extent of multiple entry and then offer advice on whether, and what, action is needed to limit the practice”.

2. In response2, the Government stated “that further data on multiple entry would be helpful. The Department holds such information and is currently undertaking an analysis of the data. We will make the results of that work available to the Committee.”

Approach

3. The Department has defined multiple entry as the practice of entering pupils for more than one GCSE or Level 1/2 Certificate (hereinafter referred to as ‘regulated IGCSE’) in the same GCSE subject up to the end of Key Stage 4. This includes pupils who were entered early for a GCSE followed by re-sits3, and entries to two or more specifications whether during the same, or a different, examination series. The Department has focused its analysis on GCSE English and mathematics because of their key role in the current secondary school accountability system.

4. The Department used data for pupils reaching the end of Key Stage 4 in 2011 and 2012. This enabled the Department to observe school behaviour in the transition to the new GCSEs in English and mathematics that were introduced in 2010 and in which the first awards were made in summer 2012.

5. Ofqual is undertaking a separate piece of research to quantify the use of multiple entry at unit – rather than whole qualification - level and is

11st Report - The administration of examinations for 15-19 year olds in England - Volume I, House of Commons, June 2012 22nd Special Report - The administration of examinations for 15-19 year olds in England: Responses from the Government and Ofqual to the First Report of the Committee, Session 2012-13, House of Commons, October 2012 3 The proportion of multiple entries which took place before the end of Key Stage 4 was 72% for English in 2012; and 67% for maths in 2012. This is a proportion of exam entries rather than of pupils with entries. Wherever multiple entries are referred to in this report, these include both early and end of Key Stage entries.

considering the impact of multiple entries on the standards and integrity of GCSEs. Ofqual will make its findings public in due course.

Summary

6. This analysis shows that, even when controlling for lower average prior attainment at Key Stage 2 sub-level, multiple entrants achieve lower grades, on average, than single entrants.

7. As many multiple entrants are pupils who entered the subject early (those whose first entry in the subject took place before the summer of year 11), our analysis looked particularly at whether early entrants improve their grade as a result of multiple entry. It provides strong evidence for the practice known as ‘banking’, where pupils stop trying to improve their grade once they have achieved a C grade. Once a candidate had achieved a C grade they were much less likely to continue and re-take the subject than candidates who had yet to achieve a C grade.

8. The majority of those with C grades who did continue (67% for GCSE English and 63% for GCSE mathematics) failed to improve on their grade. At the same time, over 90% of pupils who became multiple entrants having entered early, and who achieved a C grade, appeared to have the potential for higher grades than they achieved4, irrespective of whether they improved their grade or not following multiple entry.

9. In the light of this analysis, the Department is increasingly concerned about the potential consequences for pupils’ progression to A level and beyond. The Government does not believe that continually sitting examinations is beneficial or motivating for pupils and will continue to discourage schools from adopting such strategies.

10. Changes have already been made to current GCSEs so that all external examinations must be taken at the end of the course. This applies to all GCSEs that will be completed in 2014. The reformed GCSEs that will be introduced, in some subjects, for first teaching from 2015 will also be linear.

11. The Government believes that the current school accountability framework, with a strong emphasis on ‘threshold’ measures, has encouraged schools to focus on borderline pupils, which is likely to have contributed to decisions to enter pupils early or more than once. The Government recently completed a consultation to improve accountability for secondary schools in England. The new proposed measures will improve the current system by rewarding schools more clearly for the important work they do with all pupils.

4 Based on their prior Key Stage 2 attainment

12. In light of this analysis, the Government will now consider what further action might be taken to discourage the practice of multiple entry.

Background

13. New GCSEs in English and mathematics were introduced in 2010, with first awards made in summer 2012. These specifications are modular. For GCSE English, controlled assessment comprises 60% of the total marks. There is no controlled assessment in GCSE mathematics.

14. Multiple entry often follows on from early entry. The Department’s analysis of early entry showed that candidates who entered GCSE English and mathematics early performed worse overall than those who did not, even when taking account of re-sits.5 The research suggested that some pupils were being entered for GCSEs before they were ready, with potential consequences for their progression to A level and beyond.

15. The Advisory Committee on Mathematics Education (ACME) produced a position statement in 2011 on early and multiple entry to GCSE mathematics.6 It raised concerns about the increasing trend of early and multiple entry to GCSE mathematics, concluding that the practice has a negative effect on most students’ mathematical education, hindering their progression to a wide range of subjects post-16 and in Higher Education.

16. Earlier this year, Ofsted published a report on the practice of early entry.7 This found that its use has increased significantly in GCSE English and mathematics in the last few years, with limited use in other subjects. The survey raised concerns about the overall impact of early entry on the achievement and progress of students who had the potential to attain top grades at GCSE. Ofsted found that schools often used early entry as part of a strategy in which students who had attained a target grade would then drop the subject and use the time for other studies. However, it also found that some schools have used early entry intelligently and effectively as part of their wider work to raise standards. The new inspection framework, introduced in September 2012, makes clear that Ofsted will challenge the inappropriate use of early entry in schools.

17. Further evidence on the impact of early entry comes from Ofsted’s survey report on mathematics, which stated that the extensive use of early entry puts too much emphasis on attaining a grade C at the expense of adequate understanding and mastery of mathematics necessary to succeed at A level and beyond.8 Ofsted found that failure to stretch our

5 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/early-entry-to-gcse-examinations 6 Early and Multiple Entry to GCSE Mathematics, Advisory Committee on Mathematics Education, May 2011, http://www.acme-uk.org/news/news-items-repository/2011/5/position-paper-on-early-and- mutiple-entry-to-gcse-mathematics 7 Schools’ use of early entry to GCSE examinations, Ofsted, March 2013, http://www.ofsted.gov.uk/resources/schools-use-of-early-entry-gcse-examinations 8 Mathematics: made to measure, Ofsted, May 2012, http://www.ofsted.gov.uk/resources/mathematics- made-measure

most able pupils threatens the future supply of well-qualified mathematicians, scientists and engineers.

Key Findings

Extent of multiple entries by individual pupils

18. The extent of multiple entry, and the change between 2011 and 2012, differs between GCSE English and GCSE mathematics.

19. For GCSE English, multiple entrants accounted for almost 25% of pupils in 2011 but reduced to 7% in 2012:

a. the majority of pupils entered just once in 2011 (75%) increasing significantly to 93% in 2012;

b. one in five (128,500 pupils) entered twice in 2011, declining to one in twenty in 2012 (28,200 pupils);

c. a small percentage of pupils entered three times (3% or 16,700 pupils) in 2011, down to 2% (11,000 pupils) in 2012; and

d. tiny fractions of the cohort entered four or more times.

Figure 1 – Frequency of entry to GCSE English

2011 2012 Number Number of Pupils Percentage Number of Pupils Percentage of Entries in English GCSE

1 448,300 75 552,900 93 2 128,500 22 28,200 5 3 16,700 3 11,000 2 4 400 0 1,100 0 5+ 100 0 300 0 Total 594,000 100 593,400 100

20. In GCSE mathematics, multiple entrants represented 28% of pupils in 2011, but rose to 41% in 2012:

a. the majority of pupils entered just once in 2011 (72%) declining to 59% in 2012

b. the proportion that entered twice was 23% in 2011 (137,300 pupils) increasing to 26% (156,700 pupils) in 2012

c. 5% of pupils entered three times in 2011 (29,400) increasing to 11% (63,800) in 2012; and 4

d. only 1% (5,100 pupils) entered four times in 2011 rising to 3% (19,500 pupils) in 2012.

Figure 2 – Frequency of entry to GCSE mathematics

2011 2012 Number Number Percentage Number of Percentage of Entries of Pupils Pupils in Maths GCSE 1 434,100 72 347,600 59 2 137,300 23 156,700 26 3 29,400 5 63,800 11 4 5,100 1 19,500 3 5 800 0 4,500 1 6 200 0 1,000 0 7+ 100 0 400 0 Total 607,000 1009 593,600 100

21. The Department believes that at least some of the difference in the frequency of multiple entry between GCSE English and mathematics in 2012 is likely to result from transitional effects. One exam board (Edexcel) made available an additional assessment opportunity to enable pupils to re-sit the ‘legacy’ GCSE mathematics specification one final time before the summer 2012 exams season (when only the new version would be available). No such opportunity was available in relation to GCSE English. The difference may also be explained in part by the fact that re-taking qualifications with a high proportion of controlled assessment (such as GCSE English, with 60% of the marks coming from controlled assessment) comes at a higher cost to pupils and schools than qualifications with little or no controlled assessment. GCSE mathematics has no controlled assessment.

Number of multiple entries

GCSE English

22. In 2011, there were 757,600 GCSE entries. 309,300 (41%) of those were by pupils with multiple entries. In 2012, there were 648,200 GCSE entries, of which 95,300 (15%) were by pupils with multiple entries.

9The percentages for each number of entries may not appear to sum to 100% due to rounding

GCSE mathematics

23. In 2011, there were 823,100 GCSE entries. 389,100 (47%) of those were by pupils with multiple entries. In 2012, there were 962,200 entries, of which 614,400 (64%) were by pupils with multiple entries.

Multiple entries to the same specification

24. Further analysis was carried out to establish the extent to which multiple entrants entered the same GCSE specification with the same examination board or switched to another specification/examination board. For GCSE English, the findings revealed that the vast majority of multiple entrants entered the same specification successively, although this changes depending on how many times candidates entered:

a. 28,200 pupils entered twice in 2012, of whom 25,900 (92%) entered the same specification on both occasions; but

b. of the 11,000 pupils who entered three times, 8,800 (80%) entered multiple specifications.

25. A greater proportion of entrants to GCSE mathematics entered multiple specifications:

a. 156,700 pupils entered twice in 2012, of whom 73,200 (47%) included multiple specifications in their entries; and

b. of the 63,800 pupils who took mathematics three times in 2012, 50,000 (78%) included more than one specification in their entries.

26. The use of multiple specifications in mathematics in 2012 represented a significant increase when compared to 2011. In 2011 only 14% of the 137,200 pupils who entered GCSE mathematics twice took different specifications.

Pupils taking both GCSEs and regulated IGCSEs

27. The number of regulated IGCSE entries increased between 2011 and 2012. In English, the number increased from over 5,900 to over 26,600. The increase was smaller in mathematics, from 19,400 in 2011 to 27,500 in 2012.

28. The percentage of pupils being entered for both a GCSE and IGCSE increased between 2011 and 2012 for both English and mathematics:

a. 6% (300 pupils) of English IGCSE entrants in 2011 were also entered for GCSE, increasing to 16% (4,000 pupils) in 2012; and

b. 3% (600 pupils) of mathematics IGCSE entrants in 2011 were also entered for a GCSE, increasing to 21% (5,700 pupils) in 2012.

29. This analysis suggests that one fifth of the increase in IGCSE entry in English, and over half of the increase in mathematics, is associated with multiple entry.

Educational performance for multiple entrants

30. Our analysis compared the attainment of multiple entrants with that of single entrants with similar prior attainment (including sub-level). Where pupils had achieved the expected level or higher at Key Stage 2, in most cases multiple entrants achieved lower grades than single entrants:

a. For GCSE English in 2012, a multiple entrant with the expected prior attainment at Key Stage 2 (level 4) had a 12% chance of achieving a grade B, compared with a 21% chance for a single entrant with the same prior attainment; and

b. For GCSE mathematics in 2012, a multiple entrant who had achieved a level 5 at Key Stage 2 had a 33% chance of achieving a grade A*/A, compared with a 60% chance for a single entrant with the same prior attainment.

31. Where pupils had lower than expected attainment at Key Stage 2 multiple entrants achieved slightly higher grades than single entrants.10 This low attaining group accounted for 21% (7,500 pupils) of all GCSE English multiple entrants and 25% (55,300 pupils) of all GCSE mathematics multiple entrants.

10 This remains true even when controlling for prior attainment at sub-level at Key Stage 2

Figure 3 – Achievement by prior attainment at key stage 2 (GCSE English, 2012)

Figure 4 –Achievement by prior attainment at key stage 2 (GCSE mathematics, 2012)

Early entry and ‘banking’ a C grade

32. Early entrants with a C grade in their entry history for GCSE English or mathematics were much less likely to continue and re-enter the subject than those with D grades or below. Of those with a C grade or better, 42% re-entered GCSE English and 50% re-entered GCSE mathematics. 8

Of those with grades D-G, 86% re-entered GCSE English and 94% re- entered GCSE mathematics.

33. Further analysis was conducted of those pupils who had achieved a C grade before the year 11 summer season and re-entered the same GCSE in an attempt to improve their grade. The best grade achieved by these pupils was compared with the grade achieved by single entrants, and in each case pupils were grouped according to their prior attainment in the subject at Key Stage 2 to control for differences in this factor. The analysis found that whether these multiple entrants went on to improve their grade or not, the vast majority achieved lower grades than similar pupils with single entries.

a. 67% of those who re-entered GCSE English, and 63% of those who re-entered GCSE mathematics, having achieved a grade C, did not improve on their C grade by the end of Key Stage 4;

b. of the group who did not improve their grade, 95% (in English) and 93% (in mathematics) appeared to have the potential to achieve higher grades based on their prior Key Stage 2 attainment; and

c. of the group that did improve their grade, 99% (in English) and 97% (in mathematics) appeared to have the potential to achieve even better grades based on their prior attainment.

Multiple entrants per school type

34. The analysis found that for both GCSE English and mathematics, sponsor-led Academies had the highest rates of multiple entries in 2011 and 2012. When compared with similar schools, the rate of multiple entry in sponsor-led Academies remained slightly higher.

Figure 5: Rates of multiple entries in sponsor-led Academies (GCSE English 2012)

Percentage Percentage who are who are Multiple Single multiple single Entrants Entrants entrants entrants Similar 6,500 31,800 17% 83% Sponsored 7,200 31,400 19% 81%

Figure 6: Rates of multiple entries in sponsor-led Academies (GCSE mathematics 2012)

Percentage Percentage who are who are Multiple Single multiple single Entrants Entrants entrants entrants Similar 26,000 13,000 67% 33% Sponsored 30,200 8,800 77% 23%

Transition from legacy to new GCSEs

35. When the first awards of the new GCSEs were made in 2012, assessment opportunities were made available to enable pupils to re-sit the legacy GCSEs. The Department assessed the extent to which multiple entries can be explained by schools choosing to enter pupils for both the legacy and new GCSE specifications.

36. For both GCSE English and mathematics a significant proportion of multiple entry in 2012 relates to pupils entering both the legacy and new specifications. Multiple entry was much less prevalent in GCSE English in 2012, but 18,600 pupils (46% of multiple entrants) entered both the legacy and the new specification. The proportion was higher in mathematics, with 177,200 pupils (72% of multiple entrants) entering both specifications.11

37. The additional assessment opportunity offered by Edexcel in March 2012 had an impact on entries to the legacy mathematics specification. Entries for the mid-Year 11 examination series for the 2012 cohort were over two and a half times the volume of those in the same series for the 2011 cohort (see Figures 7 and 8). This represents 46% of the total number of multiple entries for GCSE mathematics in 2012 compared with 26% for 2011. This would suggest that schools used the GCSE transitional arrangements to optimise pupils’ grades.

11 This figure represents nearly one third of all pupils entering GCSE mathematics in 2012.

Figure 7: Impact of additional assessment opportunity (2011 KS4 cohort)

EDEXCEL Level 1/Level 2 EDEXCEL Level 1/Level 2 GCSE in Mathematics A GCSE in Mathematics B 2011 KS4 cohort (Linear) (Modular)

Number Percentage Number Percentage Before KS4 2009S 3,200 1% 100 0% Mid Yr 10 2009W 3,500 1% x12 0% End of Yr 10 2010S 36,700 10% 9,400 7% Mid Yr 11 2010W 101,400 27% 16,800 13% End of Year 11 2011S 236,700 62% 101,700 79%

Figure 8: Impact of additional examination opportunity (2012 KS4 cohort)

EDEXCEL Level 1/Level 2 EDEXCEL Level 1/Level 2 GCSE in Mathematics A GCSE in Mathematics B 2012 KS4 cohort (Linear) (Modular) Number Percentage Number Percentage 2009S 200 0% x 0% Before KS4 2009W 100 0% x 0% 2010S 4,800 1% 500 1% Mid Yr 10 2010W 5,900 2% 200 0% End of Yr 10 2011S 55,900 16% 14,600 38% Mid Yr 11 2011W 280,800 81% 22,900 60% End of Year 11 2012S x 0% x 0%

Cost to schools

38. Multiple entry comes at a cost to schools. The Department considered the cost of multiple entry to schools by estimating the impact on examination fees.13 In 2011, we estimate that the cost of additional entries (excluding first entries) in GCSE English and mathematics was over £11 million, rising to nearly £13 million in 2012.14 The estimated median cost of multiple entry per school in 2012 was £2,800, although schools varied significantly. The estimated cost to schools whose multiple entry levels were in the top 25% was at least £6,000.

39. To set this in context, the total cost for all GCSE English and mathematics entries (both multiple entries and single entries) was estimated at £48m for

12 Numbers are rounded to the nearest 100; cases of fewer than 50 entries round to zero and are represented as ‘x’. 13 Entry fees for GCSEs are determined by each examination board and vary according to the subject and size of the GCSE. Typically, a single GCSE award would cost a school in the region of £30 to enter. 14 Based on 379,700 additional entries in 2011 and 423,200 additional entries in 2012

2012/13. Multiple entries are estimated to account for one quarter of the total exam fees cost for GCSE English and mathematics.

The Government’s perspective

40. This analysis has shown that, in common with the practice of early entry, the overall performance of multiple entrants is worse than that of pupils who enter only once.

41. In the light of this analysis, and the earlier work by Ofqual, Ofsted and ACME, the Department is increasingly concerned about the potential consequences of such entry strategies for pupils’ progression to A level and beyond. The Government does not believe that continually sitting examinations is beneficial or motivating for pupils and will continue to discourage schools from adopting such strategies.

42. The Government has already made changes to GCSEs so that all external examinations must be taken at the end of the course. This applies to all GCSEs that will be completed in 2014. The academic year 2012/13 will be the last year in which modular GCSEs can be taken.

43. Following the introduction of the new school inspection framework in September 2012, Ofsted signalled its intention to challenge the inappropriate use of early entry in schools. We will continue to work with Ofsted to make sure that inspections take account of the inappropriate use of early and multiple entry strategies.

Longer-term changes

44. In the light of the move to linear qualifications, Ofqual is taking action to restrict opportunities to take qualifications early. With effect from 2014, Ofqual will restrict the November assessment opportunity to re-sits only (and only in GCSE English and mathematics). Schools will only be permitted to enter students where they have previously taken the qualification. The Department and Ofqual will monitor this change to review its impact on early and multiple entry.

45. Ofqual is looking at patterns of multiple entry at unit – rather than whole qualification – level, and will consider whether any further regulatory action might be necessary to restrict multiple entry strategies where they risk undermining public confidence in GCSEs.

46. The Government is consulting on further changes to GCSEs, with reformed GCSEs to be introduced and taught, in some subjects, from September 2015. These will be linear qualifications with expectations that match those of the highest performing nations in the world. We expect the introduction of the reformed GCSEs to limit early and multiple entry.

47. The current school accountability framework, which has a strong emphasis on ‘threshold’ measures, is likely to have contributed to the growth in 12

multiple entry as schools focus on improving the performance of ‘borderline’ pupils. Changes to the accountability framework, on which we have recently consulted, will provide a strong incentive for schools to focus on the attainment of all pupils by rewarding progress at all levels.

48. We will take this analysis into consideration when planning the arrangements surrounding the transition from current GCSEs to reformed GCSEs from September 2015 and beyond.