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What Will the Tory Cabinet Look Like?

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What Will the Tory Cabinet Look Like? 5 novembre 2018 – Times & Transcript What will the Tory cabinet look like? ADAM HURAS LEGISLATURE BUREAU Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs, backed by his caucus, talks to the media after the Liberal government fell on Friday. PHOTO: TOM BATEMAN / TIMES & TRANSCIPT FREDERICTON • Who will be welcomed into Blaine Higgs’ inner circle? The premier-designate says he’s interviewed all of his Progressive Conservative caucus colleagues for potential cabinet roles. And now, five weeks after New Brunswickers voted in the Sept. 24 election, Higgs doesn’t want to waste any more time. He’s hoping his cabinet can be sworn into hand-picked positions as early as Thursday. “As far as us being ready, I have met with all of my colleagues in preparation for how a cabinet might be put together,” Higgs said.“We’ve done that. That’s one thing out of the way.” With 21 Progressive Conservative colleagues to choose from, we asked five political scientists who Higgs might pick. 5 novembre 2018 – Times & Transcript SURE BETS Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou MLA Robert Gauvin “I think that it might make sense for Higgs to make Robert Gauvin deputy premier and give him a high-profile department and a title, including something like minister responsible for francophone rights,” Jamie Gillies, political scientist at St. Thomas University, said. “That might help Higgs and the PCs overcome a significant demographic problem with their caucus.” Gauvin checks so many boxes synonymous with cabinet considerations it’s nearly impossible to see how he wouldn’t be handed a big role. He’s the only Progressive Conservative francophone MLA and represents the only seat the party has in the north. Contrast that with Higgs, a unilingual anglophone for a riding in the province’s south, and Gauvin’s involvement becomes integral. He was a consensus pick of all five political scientists. Rothesay MLA Ted Flemming or Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West Andrea Anderson-Mason At least one of these two must be in cabinet. The role of attorney general, the most senior legal official in New Brunswick, goes to a lawyer and veteran politician. Flemming, and rookie giant killer Anderson- Mason, who beat Liberal cabinet minister Rick Doucet, are the only two Higgs has to choose from. Whoever is chosen will also likely be given the accompanying role of justice minister. The job also put the new minister in the immediate spotlight as Higgs says he will act on an arbitrator’s ruling calling on language requirements for paramedics to be softened in communities where a big majority speak French or English. 5 novembre 2018 – Times & Transcript In doing so, the Higgs government is abandoning a judicial review of the decision, setting up the immediate threat of legal action over language rights. If Anderson-Mason doesn’t get that job, she’s predicted to be up for another. “I also think that Anderson-Mason might be a good pick for minister of agriculture, aquaculture and fisheries, given that she defeated Rick Doucet and that portfolio was very prominent in Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West,” Gillies said. LIKELY Riverview MLA Bruce Fitch An MLA since 2003, Fitch is the party’s former interim leader,the minister of economic development in the Alward government, among other portfolios, and most recently the finance critic. J.P. Lewis, an associate professor of politics at the University of New Brunswick, predicted Fitch will be named finance minister “in the style that Ralph Goodale was Paul Martin’s finance minister.” Goodale was appointed to the senior portfolio when Martin, the former Chrétien finance minister, became prime minister. Fredericton West-Hanwell MLA Dominic Cardy Cardy, the New Democrat leader who became Higgs’ chief of staff and then a provincial election candidate, is the most polarizing of choices for political scientists. “The question mark is Cardy: intelligent, a policy wonk, from Fredericton, but a rookie MLA and new to the PC party, but potentially aggressive and with potential to overshadow the premier,”Tom Bateman, a political science professor at St.Thomas University said.“That is the decision to watch.” Mount Allison University political scientist Mario Levesque added: “Cardy, he seems to have Higgs’ ear, much to the chagrin of long-time PCs, and is a high- profile party defection.” 5 novembre 2018 – Times & Transcript Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin MLA Jake Stewart Stewart ran for the Progressive Conservative leadership against Higgs in 2016, a field of seven candidates. None of the others chose to run under the Higgs banner. But Stewart did and was successful, although holding onto his seat by a slim 35-vote margin. Stewart was the understudy of former Alward government Energy minister Craig Leonard and was natural resources critic while in opposition, a portfolio that he could take on in government. Saint John Lancaster MLA Dorothy Shephard Shepard made headlines last December when she took a leave of absence after being diagnosed with breast cancer. But that didn’t quiet her voice from the opposition bench, where she led on issues involving child protection. Shephard, who previously served as minister of healthy and inclusive communities in the David Alward government, will likely slot in as social development minister and the minister responsible for poverty reduction. OTHER CONSIDERATIONS “Higgs need to consider gender, region, language and experience,” Université de Moncton political science professor Roger Ouellette said. Gabriel Arsenault, political science professor at l’Université de Moncton, added that “at the very least, the cabinet needs to include some females and someone from the Fredericton, Saint John and the Moncton areas, as well as from the rural areas in the south and in the north.” That suggests a few scenarios. It’s hard to fathom Greg Thompson, a 71-year-old six-term federal politician,not expecting a cabinet role after stealing the seat in Saint Croix from incumbent Liberal cabinet minister John Ames. 5 novembre 2018 – Times & Transcript Beyond that, the party needs further representation in Moncton beyond Fitch, meaning either one or both of Sherry Wilson in Moncton Southwest or Moncton Northwest MLA Ernie Steeves will likely make it into Higgs’ inner circle. In the Fredericton region, the Tories lost both Fredericton-Grand Lake and Fredericton-York to the People’s Alliance. Cardy will likely be joined by either rookie MLA Mary Wilson in Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton or Jeff Carr in New Maryland-Sunbury. Meanwhile, Higgs also has a glut of MLAs in the Saint John area to choose from, including veteran Portland-Simonds MLA Trevor Holder and Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins MLA Bruce Northrup. “Other MLAs may be given leading roles on presumably revamped standing legislature committees as testing grounds for promotion to cabinet in due course,” Bateman said. Who was selected most? Five political science professors register their cabinet picks: (5) Robert Gauvin - Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou (5) Bruce Fitch - Riverview (5) Dominic Cardy - Fredericton West-Hanwell (4) Ted Flemming - Rothesay (4) Bruce Northrup - Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins (3) Andrea Anderson-Mason - Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West (3) Dorothy Shephard - Saint John Lancaster (3) Jake Stewart - Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin (3) Sherry Wilson - Moncton Southwest (2) Mary Wilson - Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton 5 novembre 2018 – Times & Transcript (2) Trevor Holder - Portland-Simonds (2) Greg Thompson - Saint Croix (2) Mike Holland - Albert (1) Carl Urquhart - Carleton-York (1) Gary Crossman - Hampton (1) Ernie Steeves - Moncton Northwest (1) Jeff Carr - New Maryland-Sunbury (0) Stewart Fairgrieve - Carleton (0) Ross Wetmore - Gagetown-Petitcodiac (0) Bill Oliver - Kings Centre (0) Glen Savoie - Saint John East .
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