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ILB/OLB Nick Niemann, Iowa

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ILB/OLB Nick Niemann, Iowa 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT APRIL 11, 2021 NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: ILB/OLB Nick Niemann, Iowa *Our LB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available. Iowa linebacker Nick Niemann is lost out there amidst the ignored UDFA prospect ranks… but we think he’s one of the better linebacker prospects in this draft and a top 100-125 or so prospect. Why such a gap between ‘us’ and ‘them’ on Niemann? It’s certainly a discussion worth having, and his Pro Day just lit the fuse… 6’3”/234. 4.51 40-time, 1.56 10-yd, 6.67 three-cone (not a typo). That is a nice overall profile/package, for a linebacker (inside or outside), for the NFL Draft…but that three-cone is really something and not to be taken lightly. That’s in the competition for one of the five or so best three-cones we’ll all see from any position by any prospect in 2021. A three-cone normally reserved for WRs and DBs…not linebackers. How rare is that three-cone for an ILB prospect? I have over 540+ ILB prospects in our system (data, grades, background) covering the past 10+ years. If I simply take the collective and filter down to just the ones who ran less than a 6.80 three-cone, the list whittles down to 11. Most all of them went on to be drafted, and most played in the NFL for varying amounts of time. The headline names are Jonathan Vilma and Jordan Hicks. The most likely outcome for this group, however, is that they get lost in the shuffle as spot starters, special teamers mostly. A great three-cone is not necessarily a great harbinger of NFL success…but it does get you to the dance to have a chance. The reason Niemann is not drawing a ton of attention is because he didn’t put up any numbers of note in his college play – his best season was 2020 with 9.6 tackles per game with just 2.5 TFLs and no sacks or INTs or any turnovers at all. He was a 3rd-team all-Big Ten. Who cares, amiright? I didn’t care, or even know he was, until I saw the Pro Day numbers. So, which is it – get excited about the upside due to Pro Day…or worry/dismiss on a boring career despite some rando good Pro Day? I want to add a third piece to this puzzle… Watching Niemann’s tape, from what I see – Niemann was asked to play a role that pretty much excluded him from putting up big numbers or getting noticed. He played some inside linebacker in their 5-2 schemes and a lot of outside linebacker in 4-3 alignments, but either way, upon the snap, Niemann was typically dropping into coverage right away and usually taking away the tight end. Sometimes he College Football Metrics| 1 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT APRIL 11, 2021 would pick up a WR in coverage…sometimes tracking a flaring out RB, but usually he was wiping out the TE. ‘Wiping out’ often meant ‘no targets’ to the tight end. What’s the sexy metric to point to when a linebacker is so good covering tight ends that the quarterbacks don’t even throw the ball their way? It sure doesn’t give you great chances at tackle totals or TFLs or even PDs or INTs. If you want proof, just go watch the 2019 Penn State v. Iowa game and watch what Pat Freiermuth did to Iowa/Niemann. Oh, that’s right – the YouTube video people didn’t cut that tape up and post a bombastic clickbait headline about ‘next Gronk’ type stuff in that game…because Freiermuth had all of two catches for 25 yards against Iowa. Niemann was shutting him off from the jump – but where/how does Niemann get credit for that? No one makes sexy cut-up tape of Niemann blanketing Freiermuth to the point of almost no targeting. ESPN doesn’t play two guys in-route and the ball not going there over and over and over to make you drool. THEY will, however, show you all the great catches Freiermuth had against the University of Buffalo and call him ‘next Gronk’. What Niemann excelled at in college (TE coverage)…it is impossible to put a sexy number to and impossible to put a cool video tape together on. So, unless you’re going to scout him in detail…which no one putting together ‘draft rankings’ at ESPN or the NFL Network or any other mainstream websites (I guess) will do (and yet, we listen to them…and the NFL does too) -- then Niemann’s skill/gifts are not valued…not even seen/considered. Niemann has high-end foot movement skills, as witnessed by his Pro Day three-cone…and he uses that to outmaneuver tight ends in the passing game, and RBs and WRs too. But he also has the feet to switch off and make run stops if they are headed his way. Honestly, when I first watched Niemann play – I immediately thought of Joe Schobert…a guy who had similar size and movement skills as Niemann. Schobert was used primarily as a pass rusher at Wisconsin – but the NFL didn’t take him seriously as a pass rusher because he was only 6’1”. The Cleveland Browns, smartly (Gregg Williams, actually…smartly), moved him to middle linebacker after a failed/useless rookie year as an OLB/pass rush guy. And in his first season converting to ILB (2nd year in the NFL), Schobert led the NFL in tackles and was a Pro Bowler…at a position he never played in college. I think Niemann could give you that very same opportunity…but even better because of his cover skills. Niemann can tackle. He can move east-west and north-south for coverage or stopping the run game. He was all-Academic Big Ten player. He was on the leadership group at Iowa. He is the quintessential smart/leader/play-caller/three-down ILB NFL prospect for teams like a New England/Bill Belichick. And, yet he’s barely even on any draft website’s list as a draftable player. It’s sad…it’s going to cost him money, the analyst’s ignorance of such things. When I run the comp board, if Schobert and Leighton Vander Esch are not on there…I’ll be shocked. Niemann is a really good NFL prospect, like top 100-150, hiding right under everyone’s nose. College Football Metrics| 2 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT APRIL 11, 2021 Nick Niemann, Through the Lens of Our ILB Scouting Algorithm: -- No season with more than 2.5 TFLs or 1.0 sacks…you either penalize him for lack of production, or you accept that he played in a role that didn’t have him near the ball a lot. -- #5 in total tackles in the Big Ten despite that in the disjointed COVID-2020 season. -- 7 or more total tackles in a game in all 8 game appearances in 2020. -- 7 or more tackles in a game in 10 of his last 13 games. Top Big Ten tight ends vs. Iowa/Niemann… 2019 vs. Pat Freiermuth = 2 catches for 25 yards. 2020 vs. 2nd-team Big Ten TE Jake Ferguson (Wisc.) = 3 catches for 14 yards. 2021 Pro Day: 6’3”/234, 9.1” hands, 32.5 arms 4.51 40-yard, 2.63 20-yd, 1.56 10-yd 4.23 shuttle, 6.67 three-cone 19 bench press, 33.5” vertical, 10’1” broad jump The Historical ILB Prospects to Whom Nick Niemann Most Compares Within Our System: Well, no Joe Schobert or Leighton Vander Esch here – because our grades on them were more as OLBs and they were much bigger in college than I remembered…10+ pounds bigger than Niemann. Niemann will need to add 10+ pounds of muscle in the NFL to move to ILB. College Football Metrics| 3 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT APRIL 11, 2021 Cole Holcomb is a guy I see some scouts compare Niemann to, and I get that – but Holcomb was a classic, high-end ILB in college and Niemann is just a projection possibility. ILB Last First Yr College H H W Tackle, Speed, Score Strngth Agility Metric Metric 7.597 Niemann Nick 2021 Iowa 6 3.0 234 7.80 9.09 8.552 Holcomb Cole 2019 UNC 6 1.2 234 8.48 8.82 8.816 Worrilow Paul 2013 Delaware 6 2.0 238 8.23 9.39 9.881 Connor Dan 2008 Penn State 6 2.3 231 7.97 7.60 5.978 Anzalone Alex 2017 Florida 6 2.7 241 9.78 7.76 7.214 Mohamed Mike 2011 Cal 6 3.0 239 7.26 5.86 *A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of LBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an NFL elite LB. All of the LB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances. Tackle-Strength Metrics = A combination of several physical and performance measurements. An attempt to classify the LB prospect's ability to stop the run, as well as to gauge how physical the player is, and the likelihood of higher tackle counts in the NFL.
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