Applied Predictive Analytics

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Applied Predictive Analytics ffi rs.indd 01:56:13:PM 03/28/2014 Page iv Applied Predictive Analytics Principles and Techniques for the Professional Data Analyst Dean Abbott ffi rs.indd 01:56:13:PM 03/28/2014 Page i Applied Predictive Analytics: Principles and Techniques for the Professional Data Analyst Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 10475 Crosspoint Boulevard Indianapolis, IN 46256 www.wiley.com Copyright © 2014 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Indianapolis, Indiana Published simultaneously in Canada ISBN: 978-1-118-72796-6 ISBN: 978-1-118-72793-5 (ebk) ISBN: 978-1-118-72769-0 (ebk) Manufactured in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except as permitted under Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or autho- rization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: The publisher and the author make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this work and specifi cally disclaim all warranties, including without limitation warranties of fi tness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales or promotional materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for every situation. This work is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional services. If professional assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought. Neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for damages arising herefrom. The fact that an organization or Web site is referred to in this work as a citation and/or a potential source of further information does not mean that the author or the publisher endorses the information the organization or website may provide or recommendations it may make. Further, readers should be aware that Internet websites listed in this work may have changed or disap- peared between when this work was written and when it is read. For general information on our other products and services please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (877) 762-2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-3993 or fax (317) 572-4002. Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some material included with standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand. If this book refers to media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at http://booksupport.wiley.com. For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com. Library of Congress Control Number: 2013958302 Trademarks: Wiley and the Wiley logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and/or its affi liates, in the United States and other countries, and may not be used without written permission. [Insert third- party trademark information] All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. ffi rs.indd 01:56:13:PM 03/28/2014 Page ii To Barbara ffi rs.indd 01:56:13:PM 03/28/2014 Page iii ffi rs.indd 01:56:13:PM 03/28/2014 Page iv About the Author Dean Abbott is President of Abbott Analytics, Inc. in San Diego, California. Dean is an internationally recognized data-mining and predictive analytics expert with over two decades of experience applying advanced modeling and data preparation techniques to a wide variety of real-world problems. He is also Chief Data Scientist of SmarterRemarketer, a startup company focusing on data-driven behavior segmentation and attribution. Dean has been recognized as a top-ten data scientist and one of the top ten most infl uential people in data analytics. His blog has been recognized as one of the top-ten predictive analytics blogs to follow. He is a regular speaker at Predictive Analytics World and other analytics conferences. He is on the advisory board for the University of California Irvine Certifi cate Program for predictive analytics and the University of California San Diego Certifi cate Program for data mining, and is a regular instructor for courses on predictive modeling algorithms, model deployment, and text min- ing. He has also served several times on the program committee for the KDD Conference Industrial Track. v ffi rs.indd 01:56:13:PM 03/28/2014 Page v ffi rs.indd 01:56:13:PM 03/28/2014 Page vi About the Technical Editor William J. Komp has a Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, with a specialization in the fi elds of general relativity and cosmology. He has been a professor of physics at the University of Louisville and Western Kentucky University. Currently, he is a research scientist at Humana, Inc., working in the areas of predictive analytics and data mining. vii ffi rs.indd 01:56:13:PM 03/28/2014 Page vii ffi rs.indd 01:56:13:PM 03/28/2014 Page viii Credits Executive Editor Business Manager Robert Elliott Amy Knies Project Editor Vice President and Executive Adaobi Obi Tulton Group Publisher Richard Swadley Technical Editor William J. Komp Associate Publisher Jim Minatel Senior Production Editor Kathleen Wisor Project Coordinator, Cover Todd Klemme Copy Editor Nancy Rapoport Proofreader Nancy Carrasco Manager of Content Development and Assembly Indexer Mary Beth Wakefi eld Johnna VanHoose Dinse Director of Community Marketing Cover Designer David Mayhew Ryan Sneed Marketing Manager Ashley Zurcher ix ffi rs.indd 01:56:13:PM 03/28/2014 Page ix ffi rs.indd 01:56:13:PM 03/28/2014 Page x Acknowledgments The idea for this book began with a phone call from editor Bob Elliott, who pre- sented the idea of writing a different kind of predictive analytics book geared toward business professionals. My passion for more than a decade has been to teach principles of data mining and predictive analytics to business profes- sionals, translating the lingo of mathematics and statistics into a language the practitioner can understand. The questions of hundreds of course and work- shop attendees forced me to think about why we do what we do in predictive analytics. I also thank Bob for not only persuading me that I could write the book while continuing to be a consultant, but also for his advice on the scope and depth of topics to cover. I thank my father for encouraging me in analytics. I remember him teaching me how to compute batting average and earned run average when I was eight years old so I could compute my Little League statistics. He brought home reams of accounting pads, which I used for playing thousands of Strat-O-Matic baseball games, just so that I could compute everyone’s batting average and earned run average, and see if there were signifi cant differences between what I observed and what the players’ actual statistics were. My parents put up with a lot of paper strewn across the fl oor for many years. I would never have been in this fi eld were it not for Roger Barron, my fi rst boss at Barron Associates, Inc., a pioneer in statistical learning methods and a man who taught me to be curious, thorough, and persistent about data analysis. His ability to envision solutions without knowing exactly how they would be solved is something I refl ect on often. I’ve learned much over the past 27 years from John Elder, a friend and col- league, since our time at Barron Associates, Inc. and continuing to this day. I am very grateful to Eric Siegel for inviting me to speak regularly at Predictive xi ffi rs.indd 01:56:13:PM 03/28/2014 Page xi xii Acknowledgments Analytics World in sessions and workshops, and for his advice and encourage- ment in the writing of this book. A very special thanks goes to editors Adaobi Obi Tulton and Nancy Rapoport for making sense of what of I was trying to communicate and making this book more concise and clearer than I was able to do alone. Obviously, I was a math- ematics major and not an English major. I am especially grateful for technical editor William Komp, whose insightful comments throughout the book helped me to sharpen points I was making. Several software packages were used in the analyses contained in the book, including KNIME, IBM SPSS Modeler, JMP, Statistica, Predixion, and Orange. I thank all of these vendors for creating software that is easy to use. I also want to thank all of the other vendors I’ve worked with over the past two decades, who have supplied software for me to use in teaching and research. On a personal note, this book project could not have taken place without the support of my wife, Barbara, who encouraged me throughout the project, even as it wore on and seemed to never end.
Recommended publications
  • 1.1. the Deanery Provides an Important Two-Way Line Of
    1. THE DEANERY STRUCTURE 1.1. The Deanery provides an important two-way line of communication and information between the parishes and the Diocese for collaborative efforts and the sharing of best- practices in a radian. The deanery facilitates the convening of priests (pastors, parochial vicars, active, and retired), deacons, and administrators of parishes of the Deanery, at least four times a year, for meetings to discuss and achieve a uniform application of diocesan policies, programs, and broad implementation of the pastoral initiatives of the Bishop, as well as uniform observance of the diocesan statues and policy. The deanery structure fosters cooperative endeavors and the sharing of resources between parishes and the Diocese as well as between parishes themselves. 1.2. A direct line of communication is to be maintained between the Presbyteral Council and the local deaneries. Each deanery will have an Ex-Officio representative on the Presbyteral Council, who will share information from meetings with the deaneries as well as bring suggestions and concerns to the Presbyteral Council. While each deanery is to meet at least four times a year, some deaneries choose to meet monthly which helps to keep open communication between the Presbyteral Council and the local deaneries. To help inform this conversation, it is important that minutes from the deanery meetings be sent as soon as possible to the Office of the Chancellor for dissemination to Presbyteral Council members. 1.3. There are five deaneries within the Diocese. The Deaneries are divided along county lines, with the exception of Hampden County being split into “East” and “West”.
    [Show full text]
  • The Dean and the Deanery
    7 DIOCESE OF EAST ANGLIA Diocesan policy on THE DEANERY AND THE ROLE OF THE DEAN THE DEANERY How is the universal Catholic Church structured? The whole people of God is a communion of dioceses, each entrusted to the pastoral leadership and care of a bishop. The diocese is then ‘divided into distinct parts or parishes’ (Code of Canon Law, 374.1). Each parish is by nature an integral part of the diocese. What then is a deanery? ‘To foster pastoral care by means of common action, several neighbouring parishes can be joined together in special groupings, such as deaneries’ (Code of Canon Law, 374.2). Each deanery is led by a Dean appointed by the bishop to act in his name. In a scattered diocese such as ours, with many small parishes, working together in deaneries can be very fruitful, not only for the mutual support and care of the clergy, but also for pastoral and spiritual collaboration at local level. In each deanery, there are to be regular meetings of the clergy, priests and deacons, diocesan and religious, of that grouping of parishes. All are expected to attend such meetings and participate as fully as possible in deanery life and work. In each deanery, there are to be regular meetings of lay representatives of each parish with all the clergy of the deanery, so as to facilitate active participation by lay people in local pastoral action and decision-making. The following norms for the role of the Dean came into effect from 21 November 2003. THE ROLE OF THE DEAN 1.
    [Show full text]
  • Episcopal Church Style Guide
    Episcopal Church Style Guide The official name of the church is The Episcopal Church. When writing about the Episcopal Church, please follow these guidelines: * In the first reference, the full name of the church is preferred: The Episcopal Church. * When referring to church members, the term “Episcopalians” is preferred. We elect a Presiding Bishop, who is our chief pastor and primate of the church. Chosen by the House of Bishops from one of its members, the Presiding Bishop serves for nine years, or until normal retirement age, if that occurs first. In formal usage, he or she is known as “The Most Reverend”,” usually abbreviated to “The Most Rev.” His or her first name (or preferred forename) is always used, together with an initial if applicable (e.g., “The Most Rev. John A. Smith”, or “The Most Rev. A. John Smith”). All other bishops should be addressed as above, but using the form “The Rt. Rev.” Priests and deacons are referred to as “The Rev.” Our church is organized into dioceses, and there is at least one diocese in each state. However, some states have two or more dioceses. For example, we have a Diocese of New Jersey, but in the northern part of the state there is a Diocese of Newark. Likewise, there is a Diocese of Texas, but there are several other dioceses in that state. The Bishop with jurisdiction of a diocese is usually known as the “diocesan bishop”, and is sometimes known as the “Ordinary.” He or she may have other bishops to assist, who are referred to as “bishops suffragan” and are elected in the same way that bishops are, by representatives of the members of the diocese.
    [Show full text]
  • Forms of Address for Clergy the Correct Forms of Address for All Orders of the Anglican Ministry Are As Follows
    Forms of Address for Clergy The correct forms of address for all Orders of the Anglican Ministry are as follows: Archbishops In the Canadian Anglican Church there are 4 Ecclesiastical Provinces each headed by an Archbishop. All Archbishops are Metropolitans of an Ecclesiastical Province, but Archbishops of their own Diocese. Use "Metropolitan of Ontario" if your business concerns the Ecclesiastical Province, or "Archbishop of [Diocese]" if your business concerns the Diocese. The Primate of the Anglican Church of Canada is also an Archbishop. The Primate is addressed as The Most Reverend Linda Nicholls, Primate, Anglican Church of Canada. 1. Verbal: "Your Grace" or "Archbishop Germond" 2. Letter: Your Grace or Dear Archbishop Germond 3. Envelope: The Most Reverend Anne Germond, Metropolitan of Ontario Archbishop of Algoma Bishops 1. Verbal: "Bishop Asbil" 2. Letter: Dear Bishop Asbil 3. Envelope: The Right Reverend Andrew J. Asbil Bishop of Toronto In the Diocese of Toronto there are Area Bishops (four other than the Diocesan); envelopes should be addressed: The Rt. Rev. Riscylla Shaw [for example] Area Bishop of Trent Durham [Area] in the Diocese of Toronto Deans In each Diocese in the Anglican Church of Canada there is one Cathedral and one Dean. 1. Verbal: "Dean Vail" or “Mr. Dean” 2. Letter: Dear Dean Vail or Dear Mr. Dean 3. Envelope: The Very Reverend Stephen Vail, Dean of Toronto In the Diocese of Toronto the Dean is also the Rector of the Cathedral. Envelope: The Very Reverend Stephen Vail, Dean and Rector St. James Cathedral Archdeacons Canons 1. Verbal: "Archdeacon Smith" 1. Verbal: "Canon Smith" 2.
    [Show full text]
  • Papal Transitions
    Backgrounder Papal Transition 2013 prepared by Office of Media Relations United States Conference of Catholic Bishops 3211 Fourth Street NE ∙ Washington, DC 20017 202-541-3200 ∙ 202-541-3173 fax ∙ www.usccb.org/comm Papal Transitions Does the Church have a formal name for the transition period from one pope to another? Yes, in fact, this period is referred to by two names. Sede vacante, in the Church’s official Latin, is translated "vacant see," meaning that the see (or diocese) of Rome is without a bishop. In the 20th century this transition averaged just 17 days. It is also referred to as the Interregnum, a reference to the days when popes were also temporal monarchs who reigned over vast territories. This situation has almost always been created by the death of a pope, but it may also be created by resignation. When were the most recent papal transitions? On April 2, 2005, Pope John Paul II died at the age of 84 after 26 years as pope. On April 19, 2005, German Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, formerly prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, was elected to succeed John Paul II. He took the name Pope Benedict XVI. There were two in 1978. On August 6, 1978, Pope Paul VI died at the age of 80 after 15 years as pope. His successor, Pope John Paul I, was elected 20 days later to serve only 34 days. He died very unexpectedly on September 28, 1978, shocking the world and calling the cardinals back to Rome for the second time in as many months.
    [Show full text]
  • Key Roles and Responsibilities of Church Office Holders and Bodies Practice Guidance
    Key Roles and Responsibilities of Church Office Holders and Bodies Practice Guidance House of Bishops Published October 2017 1 Preface Dear Colleagues, This guidance substantially updates and replaces the ‘Responsibilities of Church organisations’ section in ‘Protecting all God’s Children 2010’. It is in line with ‘Promoting a Safer Church’: the Church of England policy statement for the children, young people and adults. It recognises that the Church of England is not a single entity. Rather, it consists of many essentially autonomous office holders and other bodies, including both ancient ecclesiastical corporations and modern statutory corporations (many of which are charities). It aims to clarify key safeguarding roles and responsibilities for church office holders and bodies within this complex structure to support a consistent approach to safeguarding across the whole Church. The House of Bishops commends this practice guidance for use by all Church Bodies, including parishes, dioceses, cathedrals, religious communities, theological colleges and the national church institutions. I hope that this practice guidance will help church communities further develop clear lines of accountability and leadership responsibilities for the safeguarding arrangements required for all organisations. Yours in Christ's fellowship, Rt. Revd. Peter Hancock Bishop of Bath and Wells 2 Contents Introduction 5 1. National Roles and Responsibilities ................................................................................. 7 1.1. Archbishops’ .................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • The Role of the Dean the Role of the Dean
    DIOCESE OF LANCASTER Guidance Notes The Role of the Dean The Role of the Dean The Dean’s role is primarily pastoral, being an extension of the Bishop’s pastoral role as shepherd. It is an office of apostolic care for the Church in a local area, promoting and sustaining a supra-parochial mission and ministry as envisaged by the Second Vatican Council, embracing clergy, religious and lay people alike. Furthermore, the Dean is the Bishop’s personal representative in the Deanery and acts in this capacity when presiding at liturgical functions, local civic functions, ecumenical activities and similar events. The necessary authority is delegated to him by the Bishop for carrying out the duties set forth in this document. The Dean is also a vital channel of communication between the Bishop and the priests, deacons and people of his Deanery. This implies a two-way flow of information: The Bishop relies on the Dean to implement, at Deanery level, all major diocesan decisions, policies and recommendations. Working in concert with the Bishop, the Dean has the obligation to share with him any concerns that he may have about the common good of all the People of God in the Diocese. He must also represent to the Bishop the views of priests, deacons, religious and people under his pastoral care as the Dean. The establishment of good communication, and the care for appropriate confidentiality, must be priorities for the good working of the Deaneries and the Diocese as a whole. The Appointment of the Dean The Bishop will invite nominations from all the priests of the Deanery before appointing a Dean.
    [Show full text]
  • I'm a Deacon, and A
    BRIDGING THE SPIRITUAL AND THE SECULAR OPEN TO HIS CALL I’M A The Church needs servant leaders. The Church As a deacon, you are a member of the needs deacons. If you think God may be calling you clergy. At the same time, you continue in your to this ministry, now’s the time to explore that interest. chosen professional and family roles. Our current DEACON, Talk with us, and talk with God, to see if one day deacons represent all walks of life including doctors, you, too, can say, “I’m a deacon.” police officers, mechanics, teachers and more. Your experiences give you the insight to work closely with AND A... both priests and laity. COMMITTED FOR A LIFETIME Once ordained, you are always a deacon, with opportunities for continuing formation. Deacons typically receive both parish and diocesan assignments. There is no pay for this role, although Contact: you may receive tuition assistance and keep stipends Deacon John Ebel for presiding at sacramental rites. Director, Office for Diaconate Formation 414-758-2212 | [email protected] FROM DISCERNMENT TO FORMATION The first steps toward the diaconate focus on learning more about this vocation and determining whether you are called. You, and your wife, if you are married, join in discussions, classes and prayer as you explore your interest. If you choose to apply to the program, you complete a thorough screening process. Those who are admitted can begin formation at age 31 or older, with ordination no earlier than age 35. The four-year program covers the theological, pastoral, spiritual and human dimensions of formation at a college level.
    [Show full text]
  • Managing a Vacancy and Appointing a New Priest
    Managing a Vacancy and Appointing a New Priest A guide for Churchwardens and PCC Members Prayer for a vacancy This is a prayer that may be used in the parish during the vacancy. Alternatively you may wish to write a prayer specific for your context that may be used in be used in worship and in meetings during the vacancy. God our Father You have welcomed each one of us in Jesus and called us to be His Body in this place; Send us your Holy Spirit, at this time of uncertainty and change, to fill us with vision, energy, and faithfulness in prayer, that we may be true to our calling to bring new life to our community; And guide with your heavenly wisdom those who are to choose a new Incumbent for this parish, that the one who we receive may be a wise and gentle shepherd of your people: ready to serve us with joy, to build us up in faith, and to lead us by example in loving obedience to your son, our Saviour, Jesus Christ. Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 3 Practicalities during a vacancy ................................................................................................... 4 The appointment process .......................................................................................................... 5 Preparation notes for licensings ................................................................................................ 9 Useful contacts ........................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • The Cardinals of the Holy Roman Church
    The Cardinals of the Holy Roman Church ¾ Introduction ¾ Consistory ¾ College of Cardinals ¾ Canon Law Introduction Following his general audience in St Peter’s Square on 17 October 2007, the Holy Father Pope Benedict XVI, announced the names of 23 prelates to be created cardinals in a consistory to be held on 24 November 2007, the eve of the Feast of Christ the King. As part of this announcement Pope Benedict included the name of Archbishop Seán Brady, the Archbishop of Armagh and Primate of All Ireland. The consistory will be the second of his pontificate. Following the 24 November consistory, the College of Cardinals will number 202 members of whom 121, under the age of 80, will be electors. Consistory The Consistory for the creation of new Cardinals, according to the new rite introduced during the Consistory of 28 June 1991 contains the following points: - Following a liturgical greeting, the Pope reads the formula of creation, and solemnly proclaims the names of the new cardinals. - The first of the new cardinals then addresses the Holy Father, on behalf of everyone. - This is followed by the Liturgy of the Word, the Pope’s homily, the Profession of Faith and the taking of the oath by each cardinal. - Each new cardinal then approaches the Holy Father and kneels before him to receive the cardinal's berretta and to be assigned a title or deaconry. - The Pope places the berretta on his head and says, in part: "(This is) red as a sign of the dignity of the office of a cardinal, signifying that you are ready to act with fortitude, even to the point of spilling your blood for the increase of the Christian faith, for peace and harmony among the people of God, for freedom and the spread of the Holy Roman Catholic Church" - The new cardinals are assigned a church of Rome (“Title” or “Deaconry”), as a sign of their participation in the pastoral care of the Pope for the City.
    [Show full text]
  • The Bates Student
    Bates College SCARAB The aB tes Student Archives and Special Collections 12-10-1926 The aB tes Student - volume 54 number 30 - December 10, 1926 Bates College Follow this and additional works at: http://scarab.bates.edu/bates_student Recommended Citation Bates College, "The aB tes Student - volume 54 number 30 - December 10, 1926" (1926). The Bates Student. 329. http://scarab.bates.edu/bates_student/329 This Newspaper is brought to you for free and open access by the Archives and Special Collections at SCARAB. It has been accepted for inclusion in The aB tes Student by an authorized administrator of SCARAB. For more information, please contact [email protected]. "? ^f he Stole tuibmt VOL. XI.IX. Mo. 30 LEWISTON, MAINK, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 1". l'»26 PRICE TEN CENTS EDITORIAL ON ATHLETICS Will Give Xmas INTERMURAL CARNIVAL IS TO AROUSES CO-ED INTEREST Pageant Sunday BE HELD AT BATES FEB. 12 Consensus of Opinion Points to Early Participation by Florence Hancock Directs Association Promulgates Rules which are to be Used Bates in the More Mild Sports. Many Practical Cast of 20 Players at Each of the Carnivals. Arthur Brown of Bates Difficulties Must be Overcome. is Elected Secretary Winter Sports Union. Under the auspios of the Y. M. and V. W, C, A.'s a pa.cant of the nativity There are many things that Influence written by Mildred Emily Cooke and At a recent meeting of the Maine tin- type <>f athletics of the college girl; entitled "The Adoration of the Kings" intercollegiate Winter sports Union, the it may be Intensivi or superficial, ii will be presented in the college chapel following officer! were elected; Pres- may be biter mural or Intercollegiate, President Gray next Sunday nftoniion at 4:30 o'clock.
    [Show full text]
  • Securities and Exchange Commission Historical Society Interview with Robert Dean Pope Conducted on March 12, 2014 by William Thomas
    Securities and Exchange Commission Historical Society Interview with Robert Dean Pope Conducted on March 12, 2014 by William Thomas WT: This is an interview with Dean Pope for the SEC Historical Society’s virtual museum and archive of the history of the financial regulation. I’m William Thomas, the date is March 12th, 2014, and we’re in Richmond, Virginia. So, thanks very much for talking with us today. Why don’t we start out with a little bit of your personal background, where you’re from and your education? DP: Well, I grew up in Memphis, Tennessee, which, if you go way back in the history of bonds, was an infamous place. But I didn’t know that at the time I was growing up that the infamous Memphis Bond Daddies, back in the ‘60s I believe, led to first state law, and, I think, had something to do with the first federal legislation. I went to college at Princeton, I went to law school at Yale, and I did graduate work at Yale and Cambridge. I joined Hunton & Williams on January the 2nd, 1974, and I’ve been here ever since. WT: So when you were at Princeton you studied history, I see, and actually went on to get a PhD in the subject. DP: Yes. WT: Could you tell me a little bit about that interest? Interview with Robert Dean Pope, March 12, 2014 2 DP: I never thought I would be a professional academic. It was a terrible time for history grad students to get jobs then.
    [Show full text]