MEDIA CLIPS – February 27, 2017

Blackmon, Arenado HRs lead Rox vs. D-backs Rusin allows hit in 2 innings; Arizona's Shipley gives up 3 runs in 1 2/3

By Thomas Harding / MLB.com | @harding_at_mlb | February 26th, 2017

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado hit solo homers as the Rockies defeated the D-backs, 6-

1, on Sunday in Cactus League play.

Blackmon's leadoff homer, off D-backs starter Braden Shipley, was familiar -- he had 10 leadoff homers last season and has 22 in his career. Arenado homered in the third off Tyler Jones.

The D-backs' Jeremy Hazelbaker, competing for an outfield spot, doubled in a run off Rockies reliever Jason Motte in the top of the seventh.

Rockies starting lefty Chris Rusin, a versatile veteran who could fit in the rotation or the bullpen, faced six batters in his two innings. He gave up one hit, but erased that by forcing Dawel Lugo into a double-play grounder on an inside fastball, and was done in 23 pitches. He liked the results of a slider that he's trying to work into his mix.

"I've felt a lot better this spring than I have in the past," Rusin said. "My body, my delivery and my timing are a lot better than they usually are this spring."

Shipley, who saw Major League time last year and is a rotation candidate, gave up three runs -- including the Blackmon homer -- and three hits in 1 2/3 innings.

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"Arm feels great, first of all, feels really healthy, which is always good in ," Shipley said. "Other than that, it was the first time out. I was really excited, had a lot of fun. A couple of things happened, but it's Spring Training; you learn from your mistakes and go back out there and work on them."

Rockies righty prospects Yency Almonte and Zach Jemiola each pitched two scoreless innings. Almonte struck out three and Jemiola fanned two.

D-backs Up Next: Patrick Corbin, who is competing for a spot in the rotation after struggling in 2016, will get the ball for the D-backs against the Reds on Monday afternoon at 1:10 p.m. MT at Salt River Fields. The game will also give fans a chance to get a look at lefty Anthony Banda, who is ranked as the organization's No. 2 prospect according to MLB

Pipeline.

Rockies Up Next: Righty , who set a club rookie record with 185 strikeouts last season, will start against the

Dodgers at Glendale on Monday at 1:05 p.m. MT. He will be followed by righty Jeff Hoffman, who is competing for an open starting rotation spot.

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Valaika homers as Rockies fall to White Sox

By Scott Merkin / MLB.com | @scottmerkin | February 26th, 2017

GLENDALE, Ariz. -- The White Sox claimed a 7-3 victory over the Rockies on Sunday at Camelback Ranch in a game featuring key moments from players competing for roster spots on their respective teams.

German Marquez started for the Rockies and pitched two scoreless innings while allowing two hits. The No. 73 prospect in MLBPipeline.com's Top 100 is competing for a spot in Colorado's rotation. Pat Valaika, fighting for a utility spot, homered off White Sox starter Jose Quintana in the second.

Quintana, who lines up as the White Sox Opening Day starter, gave up the one run in two innings while striking out two.

First baseman Cody Asche, a non-roster invitee for the White Sox who is in the mix for the last position-player spot, doubled home Tyler Saladino for the first White Sox run of the game.

Miguel Gonzalez hurled two scoreless innings in a rare relief appearance, entering in the third after Quintana.

Closer David Robertson also pitched a scoreless inning for the White Sox.

Rockies top prospect Brendan Rodgers doubled and scored a run in the eighth.

Rockies Up Next: Righty Jon Gray, who set a club rookie record with 185 strikeouts last season, will start against the

Dodgers at Glendale on Monday at 1:05 p.m. MT. He will be followed by righty Jeff Hoffman, who is competing for an open starting rotation spot.

White Sox Up Next: Lucas Giolito makes his White Sox debut Monday, as the right-hander goes against the World

Series champion Cubs in Mesa with a 2:05 CT first pitch. This contest marks the first of two Cactus League matchups between the crosstown rivals, as the Cubs and White Sox meet up again on March 17 in Glendale. Dan Jennings and Tommy Kahnle also are scheduled to throw.

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Top prospect Rodgers gets spring game action Rusin, being considered for Rockies rotation, throws two scoreless innings

By Thomas Harding / MLB.com | @harding_at_mlb | February 26th, 2017

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- The Rockies created a buzz among those who follow prospects when they put shortstop Brendan

Rodgers, the third overall pick in the 2015 Draft, on the lineup card in the sixth inning of Sunday's game against the White

Sox at Glendale, Ariz.

The shock didn't bother him too badly. Rodgers doubled and scored during a 7-3 loss to the White Sox.

Rodgers, ranked 15th on the MLBPipeline.com Top 100 Prospects list, was selected out of Lake Mary (Fla.) High

School, but he has spent much of the offseason in Scottsdale. Minor Leaguers haven't reported to camp, but he is working out at the Rockies' complex. The invitation to board the bus for Sunday came as a surprise, after he had stepped into the cage for live batting practice against Rockies starter Chad Bettis, closer Greg Holland and relief prospect James

Farris on Saturday.

"I got to face some big league live arms, and that was my first live pitching," Rodgers, 20, said. "I was tracking the ball pretty well, seeing it well and putting some good swings on it, trying to get some rhythm. Then they asked me."Rodgers on being in the lineup

Rodgers said his parents wanted to make the trip from Florida, but he said it was better to wait until their planned trip later in the spring than to spend the money on such short notice.

Worth noting:

• Plenty of young, talented pitchers are vying for the rotation spot up for grabs. But manager Bud Black said he is not overlooking lefty Chris Rusin, who faced six batters in two efficient innings of Sunday's 6-1 home victory over the D- backs. Last year, 22 of Rusin's 27 appearances came out of the bullpen, and Rusin was 1-4 with a 5.08 ERA as a starter.

"We're thinking about this fellow as a starting pitcher," Black said. "He's versatile enough to go back into the bullpen if needed or if that's best for our staff, but [Sunday] is a snippet of what he can do."

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• Rockies Minor League first baseman Correlle Prime, who singled in a run against the D-backs, delighted in mentoring

Rockies free-agent signee Ian Desmond in first-base play. Desmond had mentored Prime, a fellow Florida resident, during his young career.

"I was surprised when Ian told me, 'I'm signing with the Rockies as a first baseman,'" Prime said "I was like, 'What? That's crazy.' He's one of the best dudes I've ever met, a mentor and a role model. It's pretty cool for it to come full circle like that, with him trying to pick my brain. I can't tell you how much work he put in."

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Busy McMahon eager for more with Rockies

By Thomas Harding / MLB.com | @harding_at_mlb | February 26th, 2017

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Rockies corner infield prospect Ryan McMahon was admittedly tired in November. But he wasn't burned out in the least.

McMahon played a full season at Double-A Hartford, which didn't have a home stadium and therefore spent the season on the road, then played in the . Then he rested. Briefly.

"I went home for like a week and watched my brother play a little bit of football and hung with my brother and sister a little bit," he said. "Then I was back here a week after that."

There's good reason that McMahon can't get enough baseball. He has quite the future in it. The Rockies' second-round pick in 2013 out of Mater Dei High School in Santa Ana, Calif., McMahon was ranked the organization's No. 6 prospect at last season's end.

The 2016 numbers weren't eye-popping -- .242 with a .325 on-base percentage, 12 home runs and 75 RBIs at Hartford and .247/.348, one homer and nine RBIs in the Fall League. But he didn't turn 22 until Dec. 14, so he was young for

Double-A. And he was named to the AFL Fall Stars Game, during which he launched a .

McMahon exited the year with a plan.

"I have some checkpoints I go through -- nothing too specific, just posture, stuff like that," McMahon said. "It's consistently getting off the best version of my swing."

Drafted as a third baseman, McMahon started learning first base last season and in the Fall League. He said he is splitting his time evenly at the positions in practice sessions.

His positions aren't open. There's four-time Rawlings Gold Glove winner Nolan Arenado at third and Ian Desmond under a five-year, $70 million contract at first base. If the Rockies are relevant in the standings as they expect, McMahon potentially could be of interest to other teams in trades.

But McMahon isn't thinking that far.

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"The guys here, the superstars, they make it real easy on us guys coming up," McMahon said. "They're very inviting.

They're very cool and make us feel pretty comfortable, so we can trust our abilities and get after it."

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CarGo believes Classic will jump-start season More spring at-bats have led to better early production for Rockies' star

By Thomas Harding / MLB.com | @harding_at_mlb | February 26th, 2017

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Rockies right fielder Carlos Gonzalez believes representing Venezuela in the World Baseball

Classic could lead to a good start to the regular season.

The last time Gonzalez played in the Classic, which was in 2013, he hit .306 with a .389 on-base percentage and a .551 in 25 April games. He kept that going in May, posting a .308/.385/.607 line in 28 games.

"You prepare better earlier because you want to play well, and you want to represent your country the best way possible,"

Gonzalez said. "The mental part -- the get-going process -- is faster because you're going to be playing meaningful games and you're going to play full games right out of the gate.

"When April comes, you're already one step ahead. It's not like, 'Here it goes. Opening Day. We got to switch the chip.'

We already did it playing in the WBC."

Gonzalez's career pattern suggests that he needs more than 50 at-bats in February and March to be sharp enough to begin the regular season. For example, the 11 Classic at-bats put him at 51 going into the 2013 season.

But in 2014 and '15, in part because he was recovering from injuries the previous seasons, he had 44 and 42 Spring

Training at-bats, respectively. In '14, he finished April hitting .241 with a .293 on-base percentage and a .454 slugging percentage. In '15, his April line was .200/.247/.347.

However, last season, former manager Walt Weiss gave Gonzalez 56 Spring Training at-bats, and Gonzalez responded with a .330/.378/.538 April.

New manager Bud Black noted that the Classic is especially good for position players such as Gonzalez and third baseman Nolan Arenado, who will play for Team USA. Left-hander Jake McGee also will pitch for the United States.

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"It's a good tournament -- a competitive tournament that is televised. You're representing your country, there's a lot of attention paid to it, a lot of coverage," Black said. "Position player-wise, those guys -- even though they're not getting the individual defensive work, extra batting practice and time on the field that you do regularly -- they're getting into game shape and mental game shape.

"You worry a little bit about the pitchers, making sure that they've got to be ready to go, throwing at a high intensity because these games count and these guys are into it. Pitching coaches, managers and GMs worry about that a little bit.

We feel as though we're doing the right things with McGee getting ready. He's on a little bit of a different plan."

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Bud Black, Jeff Bridich bullish on Rockies’ organizational pitching depth Bridich believes Colorado is building up the depth necessary to withstand the toil and trouble of pitching at altitude

By Patrick Saunders / Denver Post | February 26th, 2017

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — There is pitching gold in the Rockies organization.

No, not the fool’s gold that so quickly faded in the past, but genuine prospects providing quality depth now and for the near future.

“That’s the thing that stood out when we talked about our roster through the wintertime,” new manager Bud Black said

Sunday as he scanned the depth chart hanging on his office wall at Salt River Fields. “I’ve looked at our 40-man roster and the guys we brought to camp, and I’ve been really impressed.”

Rockies pitching staff eager to develop under Bud Black

Casual Rockies fans are familiar with Jon Gray and , young guns who are cemented in the starting rotation and who must come through if the Rockies are going to be immediate playoff contenders. But there are other, even younger, prospective starters who could shape the Rockies’ destiny, if not in 2017, then certainly in 2018-19.

Right-handers Jeff Hoffman, German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela, along with lefty , all have a shot to be big-league starters, perhaps as soon as this season. All four are younger than age 25.

Colorado’s 40-man roster features other potential starters in right-handers Yency Almonte, 22, and Zach Jemiloa,

22. There is plus talent among the nonroster invitees, too, in right-hander Ryan Castellani, 20, and lefties Sam Howard and Harrison Musgrave.

Flame-throwing right-handers Jairo Diaz, 25, and Miguel Castro, 22, are attempting to bounce back from injuries, but they could be in the bullpen mix at some point this season.

Right-hander , the fourth overall pick in the 2016 draft who signed for $4.8 million out of St. Thomas Aquinas

High School in Overland Park, Kan., will bring a potent repertoire when he arrives in the majors. If all goes well, he could make it there by 2019. Pint’s arsenal includes a triple-digit fastball, a power curveball and a plus changeup. 10

“Our job over the last three years has been to acquire as many young, athletic and talented pitchers as we can,” general manager Jeff Bridich said. “If you look at the trades we’ve made, you will see that it’s been with an eye on acquiring young pitching. That’s knowing that not all of those are going to work out, but that’s no different than any of the other 29 clubs.

There is no magic formula, but we are making those efforts.”

Bridich believes Colorado is building up the depth necessary to withstand the toil and trouble of pitching at high altitude.

“A lot of our growth has come from within, and there is growth in a lot of the guys who are pushing upward,” he said.

“Whether it’s as starters or relievers, they are making strides. I think some of our most talented, internal pitchers are now at Double-A and Triple-A, and they’re waiting to get a taste of the majors. It’s that group who, after hopefully a very prosperous development cycle, will add significantly to our depth.”

Black, a former major-league pitcher who was hired by the Rockies in large part because of his pitching acumen, envisions a backlog on the mound in 2017.

“All organizations strive for depth, because along the way there are going to be injuries, and maybe performance levels that are less that you expect,” Black said. “There is always going to be a little bit of attrition … but the guys who are close

(to the majors) have talent and makeup and all of the things you look for.

“And I do know this: When we break camp, we are going to have a nice rotation in (Triple-A) Albuquerque, and that’s going to push some of those guys down to Double-A. That’s a good thing.”

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Rockies earn split decision as pitchers dominate Diamondbacks Six Rockies pitchers limited the Diamondbacks to only four

By Patrick Saunders / Denver Post | February 26th, 2017

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Sunday produced split verdicts for the Rockies, whose pitching dominated Arizona at Salt River

Fields, but got lit up by Chicago on the west side of Phoenix.

Six Rockies pitchers limited the Diamondbacks to only four hits in a 6-1 victory.

“I know it’s early, but I told Fostie (pitching coach Steve Foster) that you don’t see games in the Cactus League like that,” manager Bud Black said. “That was a well-pitched game by our guys. I thought our young guys did great.”

The White Sox, however, ripped Colorado pitching for 10 hits in a 7-3 victory.

For Starters: Left-hander Chris Rusin, making a bid for the fifth-starter job, tossed two scoreless innings vs. Arizona, facing the minimum six batters. Rusin allowed one hit and struck out one, needing just 23 pitches (15 strikes) to complete his day. He used a low-and-inside sinker to induce a grounder out of Dawel Lugo in the second.

“I have felt a lot better this spring than I have in the past,” Rusin said. “My body and timing and delivery is a lot better than it usually is this early in spring. I had good location with my fastball on both sides and I’m working on a slider.”

In Colorado’s loss to Chicago, right-hander German Marquez, another rotation candidate, pitched two scoreless innings, allowing two hits.

Hits: Charlie Blackmon, who launched 29 homers from the leadoff spot last season, opened the first inning Sunday doing the same, cranking a 1-0 pitch from Arizona’s Branden Shipley to deep center. … Nolan Arenado also hit his first home run of spring, a solo shot to left with one out in the third off the D-Backs’ Tyler Jones. … Right-hander Yency Alomnte threw two scoreless innings, whiffing three while giving up one hit and one walk vs. Arizona. … Top prospect Brendan

Rodgers, Colorado’s first-round pick in the 2015 draft, doubled and scored a run against the White Sox in his Cactus

League debut. Pat Valaika, fighting for a utility spot, homered off White Sox starter Jose Quintana in the second.

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Misses: Gerardo Parra, starting in left against Arizona, went 0-for-3. … Rockies right-hander Jason Motte served up a run-scoring to the D-Backs’ Jeremy Hazlebaker in the seventh, breaking up Colorado’s bid for a shutout. … Second baseman Rafael Ynoacommitted a two-run throwing error against the White Sox.

Up next: The Rockies (2-1) travel to Glendale to meet (2-0), 1:05 p.m. Camelback Ranch.

Rockies probables: RHP Jon Gray, RHP Jeff Hoffman, LHP Sam Howard, LHP Jerry Vasto, RHP Johendí Jiminian, LHP

Jake McGee.

Dodgers probables: RHP Kenta Maeda, RHP Brock Stewart, RHP Josh Fields, LHP Luis Avilan, RHP Chase De Jong.

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Bud Black says Chris Rusin definitely in the mix for Rockies’ starting rotation Rusin close to making jump from bullpen to starter

By Patrick Saunders / Denver Post | February 26th, 2017

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — It’s only late February and there are still 31 practice games to go, but Chris Rusin is making an early run for a spot in the Rockies’ starting rotation.

It’s not simply that the veteran left-hander has looked good in bullpen sessions and looked good throwing two scoreless innings Sunday against Arizona. It’s that Bud Black has repeatedly singled out Rusin during spring training. The manager did so again Sunday after six Colorado pitchers limited the Arizona Diamondbacks to four hits in a 6-1 victory.

“Chris pitched well, and he pitched well last year,” Black said. “We are thinking about this fella as a starting pitcher. We know that he’s versatile enough to go back in the bullpen, if needed, and if that’s what’s best for our staff. But (Sunday’s performance) was a snippet of what he can do.”

Rusin, 30, made seven starts last season but was used primarily out of the bullpen, where he went 2-1 with a 2.98 ERA in

22 relief appearances. As a starter, he was 1-4 with a 5.08 ERA.

Sunday, Rusin allowed one hit and struck out one, needing just 23 pitches (15 strikes) to complete his day. He used a low-and-inside sinker to induce a double-play grounder from Dawel Lugo in the second inning.

“I have felt a lot better this spring than I have in the past,” Rusin said. “My body and timing and delivery are a lot better than they usually are this early in spring. I had good location with my fastball on both sides and I’m working on a slider.”

Bettis’ plans. Right-hander Chad Bettis won’t pitch in a Cactus League game until later this week — at the earliest. He’s not hurt. He’s just following a schedule that has worked for him the last two springs.

“I’m getting some extra work on the back fields, ” he said Bettis, who finished the 2016 season with a flourish, going 7-2 with a 3.75 ERA in his last 14 starts. “I’m working on pitching down and away, and I’m working on perfecting my craft before moving forward.”

Holland on hold. Closer candidate Greg Holland, who missed all of 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in

October 2015, also is waiting to make his spring debut. The former Kansas City Royals right-hander threw about 20

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pitches to hitters Saturday in a simulated game and is scheduled to have a similar outing Tuesday. At that point, the

Rockies will further evaluate him.

It’s not unusual for Holland to get a relatively late start to spring. He followed a similar plan when he was the Royals’ closer in 2014 and 2015.

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The most and least clutch seasons Some of the most and least clutch seasons in Rockies history.

By Eric Garcia McKinley / Purple Row | February 27th, 2017

I’ve been thinking about clutch lately. A couple weeks ago, friend of Purple Row Drew Creasman wrote about Nolan

Arenado as a clutch player. Using that as a springboard, I thought it would be fun to go back a decade in Rockies history to look at the most clutch seasons the Rockies have had.

It’s first necessary to establish the parameters of terms. When it comes to clutch, there are both definitive and uncertain answers to clear questions. For instance, the answer to the question, “does clutch exist in baseball?” is a categorical

“yes.” Clutch is both observable and quantifiable. Statistics such as Win Probability Added (WPA) and the aptly named Clutch, both found at FanGraphs, confirm this.

The question with less certainty is, “are some players clutch and others not?” If the first question gives us an answer about clutch in the past tense, this question attempts to determine whether or not “clutch” is part of a baseball player’s

DNA, thus informing his future tense. Part of the uncertainty surrounding this question is the baseline used. Is a good hitter who hits well in high leverage situations clutch, or does he have to overperform his normal level of performance to be considered clutch? I lean to the latter, but let’s start with the former.

It’s obvious that when a batter is up at the plate with his team down by one run, a runner on second, and two outs, he’s in a clutch moment. This situation can also be measured. Based on run expectancy given the base/out state and a historical view of these situations, the visiting team has a 72.6 percent chance of winning. If the batter gets a hit and scores the runner to tie the game, the home team then has a 57.4 percent chance of winning. In other words, that hit increased the home team’s chance of winning by a full 30 percent. That’s coming through in the clutch.

Given the same situation in the first inning, however, the visiting team has a win expectancy of just 54.9 percent, and a game-tying base hit results in a 11.3 percent reversal and gives the home team a 56.4 percent win probability. It’s still a meaningful situation, but the stakes aren’t as high because of context. (You can play with the win probability situations here.)

Throughout the course of the season, players accrue their WPA based on how much, in aggregate, they move the needle in both directions. For instance, if the same batter was up at the plate in both of the situations above in the same game,

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those two plays would give him 0.41 WPA (convert the 30 and 11 percent increases in win expectancy to decimals of .30 and .11 to get 0.41 WPA). Poor performance in these situations cause batters to lose WPA (just like the pitchers facing the batter in these scenarios would receive -0.41 WPA), and typically, season totals range from 6.00 on the high end to -

3.00 on the low side. Doing better in high leverage situations, such as the first will give the player a higher WPA.

The table below has the 10 best WPA seasons from Rockies hitters over the past 10 seasons, 2007-2016:

WPA Leaders, 2007-2016

Player Season WPA Matt Holliday 2008 4.58 Matt Holliday 2007 4.37 2007 4.38 Carlos González 2015 3.72 Brad Hawpe 2007 3.58 Justin Morneau 2014 3.48 Nolan Arenado 2016 3.02 Carlos González 2010 3.01 Corey Dickerson 2014 2.71 2011 2.42

The first thing that stands out here is that these are all great hitters during great seasons. That makes sense. It shows that these players hit very well in high leverage situations and contributed a lot to Rockies’ wins during each respective season. The most recent season here is Nolan Arenado’s 2016. If it felt like Arenado got a lot of hits in high leverage situations, that’s because he did.

The chart only suggests that these were clutch seasons, however, if the baseline is neutral. If each player serves as his own baseline and the clutch-ness of the season is derived from how well he overperformed his typical performance, we need a different metric. That metric is Clutch.

In addition to a player’s WPA, Clutch considers how often a player found himself in high leverage situations (this isn’t the same for every player, as guys who hit at the top of the lineup tend to be in high leverage situations more often than those at the bottom), as well as the player’s context neutral contributions. The end product is a measurement of performance in high leverage situations using the player himself as the baseline. Put differently, Nolan Arenado in 2016, who hit .294, wouldn’t get Clutch credit for hitting .294 in high leverage situations.

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A high WPA is a condition for a good Clutch score, but they don’t always overlap. Only two of the top 10 WPA seasons of the past 10 years are also among the top 10 Clutch seasons (Clutch scores tend to land between 2.0 and -2.0):

Clutch leaders, 2007-2016

Player Season Clutch Justin Morneau 2014 1.88 Yorvit Torrealba 2009 1.75 Carlos González 2015 1.64 Kaz Matsui 2007 1.55 Troy Tulowitzki 2007 1.54 Nolan Arenado 2014 1.43 Jason Giambi 2010 1.35 Dexter Fowler 2010 1.24 Dexter Fowler 2011 1.19 Scott Podsednik 2008 0.98

This list is still full of great hitters during great seasons, but because of that, it’s noticeable that the list also includes players like Yorvit Torrealba and Scott Podsednik. The WPA list gave us great hitters performing well in high leverage situations; this one offers hitters outperforming themselves in those same scenarios. That’s how the Podsednik’s of the world end up here.

There are two players here worth dwelling on a little bit more. The first one is Arenado. He showed up on the WPA leaderboard for his 2016 season, but his 2016 Clutch score was a modest 0.27. He was a very good hitter in 2014 as well.

In a shortened season, he hit .287/.328/.500 with 18 home runs but did better than that in high leverage situations. His

1.43 Clutch score is the sixth best since 2007. Interestingly, Arenado’s Clutch score in his breakout 2015 season was on the wrong side of the ledger: -0.92. It was a phenomenal year, but he didn’t excel in high leverage situations.

The other compelling Clutch leader is Tulowitzki. During Tulo’s time in Colorado, he had the reputation of doing poorly in high-leverage situations. The bird’s eye view of a statistic like Clutch allows us to move beyond anecdote. In his rookie season, Tulo put up one of the best Clutch season’s the Rockies have seen in the past decade.

However, for every leaderboard, there’s an un-leaderboard. Here are the 10 worst Clutch scores of the past 10 years:

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Un-Clutch leaders, 2007-2016

Player Season Clutch Tr oy Tulowitzki 2009 -2.26 2008 -1.81 Troy Tulowitzki 2010 -1.72 Troy Tulowitzki 2014 -1.44 Carlos González 2013 -1.39 Ryan Spilborghs 2010 -1.32 Clint Barmes 2009 -1.31 Carlos González 2010 -1.21 Charlie Blackmon 2014 -1.2 Gerardo Parra 2016 -1.19

Well then, maybe the reputation was somewhat earned. While Tulo excelled in high leverage situations during his rookie campaign, he did the opposite of that in at least three other seasons. But there’s something of a lie in these figures as well. Take Tulowitzki in 2014: The man hit .340/.432/.603. It’s pretty damn hard to outperform yourself when you’re hitting like Miguel Cabrera. Finally, it’s worth stating that this is not a list of “bad” seasons (Gerardo Parra’s 2016 very much excepted). This is one measure drawn from contextual situations—nobody would trade 2009 Tulo for 2008 Podsednik.

There are things that neither WPA nor Clutch account for. For instance, they both measure games and compile throughout the season. They don’t account for the higher leverage, for example, of a September game in a playoff race.

They also don’t consider opposing pitcher or opponent. Late innings often provide higher leverage, and higher leverage also set up matchups with tough relievers. That sort of granular look is a better fit for single-game analysis.

There’s still one final question about Clutch: is it repeatable? To get a sense, let’s see what happened the year after the

10 highest and lowest Clutch seasons:

Next season Clutch

Player Season Clutch Next season Clutch Justin Morneau 2014 1.88 0.47 Yorvit Torrealba 2009 1.75 -0.31 Carlos González 2015 1.64 0.23 Kaz Matsui 2007 1.55 0.24 Troy Tulowitzki 2007 1.54 -0.04 Nolan Arenado 2014 1.43 0.27 Jason Giambi 2010 1.35 -0.48 Dexter Fowler 2010 1.24 1.19 Dexter Fowler 2011 1.19 -0.33 19

Player Season Clutch Next season Clutch Scott Podsednik 2008 0.98 0.18 ------Troy Tulowitzki 2009 -2.26 -1.72 Garrett Atkins 2008 -1.81 -0.22 Troy Tulowitzki 2010 -1.72 -0.51 Troy Tulowitzki 2014 -1.44 -0.44 Carlos González 2013 -1.39 -0.8 Ryan Spilborghs 2010 -1.32 -0.52 Clint Barmes 2009 -1.31 -0.55 Carlos González 2010 -1.21 -0.44 Charlie Blackmon 2014 -1.2 0.23 Gerardo Parra 2016 -1.19 --

Because these are “top 10” looks, we shouldn’t really expect much repetition. Fowler put together two consecutive seasons of Clutch play, and Tulo had consecutive un-Clutch ones. Otherwise, however, there’s a not unexpected move toward 0. This suggests that while we can expect good hitters to continue to be good year-to-year, consistent outperformance of one’s own baseline in high leverage situations will likely fluctuate.

Baseball that has happened is and always will be more compelling than baseball that could happen. But the former informs the latter, so these aren’t two truly distinct things. Some of the fun gets sucked out of it when baseball’s past isn’t taken as repeatable prologue, but is instead used to moderate excitement.

For instance, if a player put up four consecutive Clutch seasons over 1.00, I’d probably remain skeptical that he could repeat it, and rightly so. But if he did repeat for four more seasons until he retired, I’d finally conclude that, yeah, dude maybe had clutch in his DNA. The joy of it would come after the fact, and I might feel that I lost something by focusing too much on what I think will happen.

But, then again, I might also lose something if I took those first four Clutch seasons and anointed a new deity of the high leverage situation. Perhaps instead of four more seasons of Clutch over 1.00, this player hung around 0 and even found himself in the negative for the remainder of his career. If I spent those years trying to insert a WPA-shaped peg into a

Clutch-shaped hole, I might lose something there, too.

Perhaps the real lesson is to embrace the unexpected present and take in clutch situations as they arise. That’s what makes baseball so fun.

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Colorado Rockies: 3 Things You Should Know on February 27

By Kevin Henry / Rox Pile | February 27th, 2017

The Colorado Rockies continue their march toward the regular season later today with a matchup in Glendale, Ariz., against the Los Angeles Dodgers. After two matchups against the Arizona Diamondbacks over the weekend, the Rockies will now see the Dodgers for consecutive days on Monday and Tuesday.

Sure there are plenty of recaps and highlights to go over with the Rockies and their 2-1 weekend against the

Diamondbacks and Chicago White Sox. However, we’re going to let you read about the weekend that was here. In this article, we’re looking at three articles that will help give you an overall flavor of the Rockies as we count down to the regular season opener at Milwaukee.

Focus on Defense

You’d think with DJ LeMahieu and Nolan Arenado in the infield that defense would be a strength for the Rockies. It is, by the way. However, there are places where Colorado can improve and that’s what this article by Mark

Knudson highlights.

Knudson looks at Colorado’s fielding percentage and uncovers a startling statistic…

There is room for improvement for sure.

The One That Got Away

Theo Epstein has done a masterful job of building the into world champions. However, that doesn’t mean he’s been perfect at his job.

In an interesting read, Epstein reflects back on the trade that sent LeMahieu and to the Rockies in exchange for Ian Stewart and . There’s no doubt that Colorado won the trade there.

Check out some of Epstein’s thoughts by clicking here.

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Diving into Dahl

Ready to get your stat geek on? Check out this article on . While many of us who watch the Rockies on a regular basis think Dahl is destined for stardom and a shoo-in to win the left field starting spot, it’s always good to get a national perspective.

Here’s an in-depth look at Dahl’s rookie season and what might be expected of him this year. Spoiler alert: It’s not all peaches and cream. There are some interesting points made that might be a bit of a shock to Rockies followers. Click here and see what you think.

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Colorado Rockies: Looking at the Back End of the 2017 Bullpen

By JD Jensen / Rox Pile | February 27th, 2017

It is no secret throughout the Colorado Rockies‘ history that pitching has always been an issue. The current edition of the

Blake Street Bombers’ deadly lineup featuring Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu, and Carlos Gonzalez have recently made the Rockies one of the best offenses in baseball. Typically, however, the Rockies bullpen and starting rotation have both been a major issue.

Last season, additions like Tyler Chatwood (returning from his second Tommy John surgery) and Jon Gray (his first full season in the Majors) made the starting rotation much more potent. Gray in particular looks poised to be an ace in the near future. In addition, the 4th overall pick in this past year’s draft was Riley Pint, who throws over 100 miles per hour consistently. There is little doubt that, barring injury, he can one day grow into a key role in the rotation. Given that he is fresh out of high school, he has plenty of time to perfect his skills.

These key players give Rockies fans hope that one day in the very near future, they will have an at-least solid rotation, which is all they need. That could be this season, with young talent like German Marquez and Jeff Hoffman ready to lend their talents.

However, Colorado’s relief pitchers have been an entirely different story.

Last season, the Rockies posted a 75-87 record, 16 games out of a division title. This was also 12 games out of the playoffs. Their closer at the start of the season, Jake McGee, had a 4.17 ERA and posted just 15 total saves all season.

Their entire bullpen as a whole could only post a 4.91 ERA, much too high for relief pitchers. It can be said that their bullpen was the reason for enough losses to keep them out of the playoffs. With an even decent bullpen, they might have perhaps gotten closer to competing for a playoff spot.

Over this past offseason, the Rockies landed two free agent relief pitchers who will hope to help Colorado’s chronic bullpen problem. These players are Greg Holland and Mike Dunn. Holland, in particular, is a large question mark. He was a borderline elite pitcher until undergoing Tommy John surgery. How well he plays after such a large surgery is a big question that could change the entire landscape of the Rockies. It’s a high-risk, high-reward acquisition that could dramatically change not only Colorado’s bullpen, but the team’s fortune as well.

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Regarding the bullpen, the closer position is probably the biggest question heading into the season. McGee was subpar, and likely won’t receive that role again. If Greg Holland can reach a spot where he once was, he will definitely be in the running, as will Adam Ottavino, who returned from Tommy John surgery last season to earn seven saves.

Of these two, whoever does not get the closing role will more than likely be slotted at the 8th inning specialty reliever spot.

What do you think? Who earns the closer spot for this season? Who deserves it? Let us know below.

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Colorado Rockies: How Bud Black Views Defensive Shifts

By Tim Engquist / Rox Pile | February 27th, 2017

New Colorado Rockies manager Bud Black fielded questions about his philosophy on the shift a couple of days ago in

Arizona, giving us an idea what his thoughts are. Included in Bud’s answers were his thoughts on analytics as a whole, how Colorado’s talented infield affects shifts, what he thought about the shift as a pitcher and more. Here are some highlights:

In his answers, Black, who took over the Rockies in early November, gave some information about how he handles all of the information the coaching staff gets and how they use it. He illustrates he wants to incorporate but not be handcuffed by it.

“Thing about data … we get a lot. It’s valuable and useful. It’s how you blend it and put it to use. There’s a time for and place for shifting. There’s a time and place to heavily shift, moderately shift, slightly shift, all those things,” Black said. “It’s fluid, at times, pitch to pitch, at bat to at bat, guy to guy.”

He continues on to say: “Am I for shifting? Sure, yeah. But to an extent, we do it how we think we should do it.”

From this, it is hard to predict exactly how and when the Rockies will employ the shift in 2017 but it also confirms the fact that they will. Technically, it could also mean the Rockies will change the shift slightly based on the count and the pitch that is about to be delivered.

Black delves further into situation differences and says that the Rockies practice making situational plays in whatever formation has the best chance to get the out they are looking for.

“We talk about those things. You can’t cover every position on the field,” Black said. “That’s why when you do feel strongly about a guy and where he is going to hit the ball you try and position it, and then you practice turning a double play from that alignment, which we do.”

Another compelling response from the Rockies manager was provoked by a question revolving around if Colorado’s talent in the infield changes the way they will shift, referencing when Nolan Arenado would shift to essentially the shortstop position in some games last year. Black’s answer was actually the opposite line of thinking, saying, “Having guys that are very instinctual can have you shift less, or less extreme, because they can cover more game.”

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Black talked about his time as a pitcher and shed insight on how the game was played before the dramatic shifts that are now being employed.

“Was I a propenent of infielders moving based on me as a pitcher? Yeah, but not to the extreme,” Black said. “There is no doubt looking back there were some hitters that, when I pitched in the 80s and 90s, I’d maybe want the second baseman on the left field side, put three guys over there. Would I care if (Mark) McGwire or Jose Canseco hit a ground ball to second? If they wanted to re-adjust their swing, go ahead. I was worried about those guys hitting it over the wall.”

He continues to point out a less appreciated benefit of the shift, stating, “When guys try to beat the shift and can’t, that’s a bad swing. That results in an ugly swing, and that’s sometimes what we are trying to do.”

My personal favorite quote from Black is at the end of this next excerpt. He also displays a holistic point of view on shifting that I think is spot on.

“You have to look at the long haul. When you shift, you have to really truly track every out and non-out, right? And you will find that, by shifting, you get more outs, and the at-bats or the ground balls that go through, you have to live with that, and have the peace of mind and know that you did the right thing and this will work out more often that not for us…especially the pitcher.

“They hit ‘em where we ain’t, then you know what that is? It’s baseball.”

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10 takeaways from two Rockies spring training games in one day

By Drew Creasman / BSN Denver | February 26, 2017

Until the last week or so, we at BSN Denver won’t be bringing you full game recaps of Colorado Rockies spring training as that would almost certainly be an insufferable waste of your time. If you want to know all the gritty details of the box score, you can always click right here for Game 1. And here for Game 2.

Otherwise, we will try to boil down each game into a handful of interesting tidbits so we can get back to reporting on the stories inside and surrounding each game.

Game 1:

1. Charlie Blackmon, after leading the league in the category a year ago, hit his first lead-off home run of the still very young spring season.

2. Nolan Arenado hit his first home run of the season, a “no-doubter” according to the 850 KOA radio broadcast.

3. Tom Murphy picked up his first extra base hit of the spring.

4. A number of young Rockies prospects made their big league camp debuts including, Ryan McMahon, Dom

Nunez and Correlle Prime, the latter two used a pair of singles to contribute a run in the seventh inning.

5. The Rockies got their second-straight day of very good pitching against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Chris Rusin, who could be vying for the fifth rotation spot but more likely mas a mortal lock on the “swing man” position, pitched two quick innings, giving up no runs on a hit, striking out one. Yency Almonte, another young debut, pitched two scoreless innings striking out three and allowing just one hit. And Zach Jemiola, you guess it — making his big league camp debut — pitched two clean innings with two strikeouts. Jason Motte was the only pitcher to give up a run on the day.

Game 2:

1. Pat Valaika started the scoring in the second with a long home run, reminding us that despite is small frame, his bat can pack a punch. He is an intriguing player moving forward in the conversations around Rockies middle-infield depth.

2. German Marquez looked perfectly solid in his two innings of work, giving up just two hits.

3. We saw more guys playing against MLB competition for the first time with Wes Rogers and Brendan Rodgers.

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4. Wes Rogers had an interesting sequence of events in the sixth where he misplayed a ball in center field which cost the

Rockies a run, but in the next half inning, singled in Brendan Rodgers, then stole second and scored. He is the best pure base stealer in the Rockies system. The Rodgers with a “D” tallied an RBI double in his only at-bat.

5. Jordan Patterson notched the Rockies only other extra base hit in this one and also showed off some good speed but had an ugly, and a little bit scary, slide into third base, though appears to be fine.

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Holes that need fixing for all 30 teams

By Bradford Doolittle / ESPN.com | February 26, 2017

With exhibition play starting in Florida and Arizona, our senses are alert for the familiar sounds and sights of our favorite game. The games themselves don't count for anything, of course, and for the most part, they will hold little information about what will actually happen over the course of the 2017 major league season. Yet there are dramas. Little ones, but dramas nonetheless.

When it comes to positional battles, we generally think they will be decided by a simple judgment of which player is better.

There are other considerations: Is the team focused on the near term or the long term? Who has options remaining? Who has service time that needs to be preserved? Are there weaknesses on the roster that a certain player can address better than others?

It's the last point that we're interested in today. When we roll up all of our preseason player projections to the team level, we can get a sense of each club's strengths and weaknesses. Once we identify an area that poses a potential problem for a club, are there possible solutions in camp for teams, at least among roster spots that are up for grabs? If so, then we've got some of those little dramas to follow as the games begin.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS Problem projection: WOBA by left-handed batters (22nd)

Arizona has a lot of holes in its profile, especially in the middle infield where it ranks 26th in projected weighted on-base average at second base and 24th at shortstop.

The fix: The Diamondbacks will be shuffling through their middle-infield options and to balance the lineup, it would be good news if Ketel Marte seized at least the right-handed portion of a shortstop platoon. A switch-hitter, Marte hit .279 against righties last season for Seattle.

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ATLANTA BRAVES Problem projection: WOBA at third base (30th)

With everyone excited for a full season of Dansby Swanson at shortstop, the Braves are looking for an answer to play next to him on the left side of the infield. In addition to the poor offensive projection, Atlanta also has a poor overall defensive forecast (28th in defensive runs saved), making the hot corner ripe with opportunity for the right breakout player.

The fix: Incumbent Adonis Garcia is playable but, at 32, isn't really a breakout candidate. However, Rio Ruiz, at 22, carries with him the possibility of youth. The Braves have enough veteran infielders in camp that Ruiz could end up starting the season in Triple-A. It would be an exciting development for Atlanta if he forced his way onto the roster.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES Problem projection: Stolen bases (30th)

Stealing bases is just not what the Orioles do under Buck Showalter. This year's roster won't change that and the concern isn't really steals but more general baserunning acumen.

The fix: Veteran Michael Bourn recently signed a minor league deal to return to the Orioles. Last season, at 34, Bourn stole 15 bases in 113 games, so the wheels still work. He would add another dimension to the Baltimore outfield mix.

However, assuming he makes the roster, Bourn would bump a Rule 5 pick -- Anthony Santander or Aneury Tavarez -- whom the O's like, or Joey Rickard. Baltimore can't realistically keep both Rule 5 guys, but even if they keep only one, there will be tough decisions to make.

BOSTON RED SOX Problem projection: Home run percentage (21st)

Believe or not, as good as the Red Sox look on paper, this is not a team with elite long-ball potential, especially now that David Ortiz is chillin' on the beach. According to both the projections from both Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs, the only Boston hitters likely to hit even 20 homers are Hanley Ramirez and Mookie Betts. Don't misunderstand: Boston projects to score the most runs in the majors, so dismiss this problem if you wish. On a team with few glaring statistical holes, a few more dingers could be the final piece of the puzzle.

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The fix: Any one of the Red Sox's young stars could break out in the power department, and that's the most obvious patch here. The third base battle will be the one to watch. If slimmed-down veteran Pablo Sandoval can claim an everyday role, his long-ball potential is better than that of Brock Holt or Josh Rutledge.

CHICAGO CUBS Problem projection: Left-handed relief FIP (16th)

Talk about your first-world problems. The Cubs simply don't have any glaring weaknesses. Even this one is overstated because righty power reliever Carl Edwards is so good against lefty hitters.

The fix: The Cubs signed Brian Duensing for what probably will be a specialized role. Duensing has allowed a .614 OPS in his career against lefties. Last year, he was at .619, but was limited to 13⅓ innings because of elbow problems.

Chicago will hope a healthy Duensing still has his lefty-killing ways. If not, the Cubs will have to look elsewhere.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX Problem projection: Wins (27th)

Not trying to be cute here. The White Sox have problem areas up and down the roster and where there is projected competence, it's attached to a veteran who is not going to be around by the time Chicago returns to competitiveness. Not only have the Sox just embarked on their rebuilding plan, but they also remain in the middle of the tear-down part of the process.

The fix: Patience.

CINCINNATI REDS Problem projection: Starting pitcher FIP (29th)

After setting a record for homers allowed in 2016, it's no secret that the Reds have a ways to go in revving up their run- prevention machinery.

The fix: There are no shortcuts here, of course. is on the shelf again. Stopgap veteran Scott Feldman is slated for a rotation spot. Young Robert Stephenson looks like good bet for a slot, which offers hope. But Cincinnati needs

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a critical mass of young arms, so in addition to Stephenson, eyes will also be on prospects Amir Garrett and Cody Reed.

They won't all break camp with the club, but hopefully they show themselves ready to land in Cincy sooner than later.

CLEVELAND INDIANS Problem projection: Catcher WOBA (25th)

Like the Cubs, Cleveland has few holes on its resume. The catching situation is far from dire defensively. However, the

Indians do look a little light in catcher offense.

The fix: The Indians will go with a combination of Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez behind the plate. Of the two, Gomes has the better upside, having hit 21 homers just a couple of years ago. Perez has the better approach, and Gomes' production has dwindled because of injury. It's an intriguing duel, though we know both players will get plenty of time behind the dish.

COLORADO ROCKIES Problem projection: Walk rate (27th)

The Rockies profiled as an aggressive offensive team with decent contact rate and plenty of pop. There aren't a lot of walks in the mix, however.

The fix: The Rockies' set of position players is both strong and more or less fixed as we begin spring play. There aren't any magic bullet guys hanging around likely to spread the gospel of plate discipline. It might not matter, as this club looks as if it can mash. If the Rockies beat their forecast for walks, it'll be because ascending players like Nolan Arenado, Trevor

Story and David Dahl evolve in that direction.

DETROIT TIGERS Problem projection: Center field WOBA (25th)

This appears to be a last-hurrah kind of season for this version of the Tigers, who have pledged to slash payroll. Until then, there's a big hole in center field.

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The fix: None of the three leading contenders in camp -- Mikie Mahtook, JaCoby Jones and Tyler Collins -- projects to post an on-base percentage of over .300. The acquisition of a stopgap veteran with one year left on his deal makes sense, unless one of this unproven trio breaks out, that is.

HOUSTON ASTROS Problem projection: Left field WOBA (23rd)

There are only a few finishing touches needed for the Astros here and there, the big one being the need for a second front-line starter. However, on a positional group that is both deep and well-balanced, there does appear to be a need for one more quality corner bat.

The fix: It might simply be a matter of semantics here, as we don't know how much Carlos Beltran will ultimately play the field. If the answer is not very much, then Houston will need a partner for left fielder Nori Aoki, who struggles against lefties, to emerge. That puts a lowly-amped spotlight on Jake Marisnick and and Teoscar Hernandez this spring.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS Problem projection: Second base WOBA (29th)

In addition to the poor offensive forecast generated by the various second base options the Royals have in camp, this is also a roster that looks quite a bit stronger from the left side of the plate than the right. As such, to kill two birds, so to speak, K.C. could use an impact righty hitter to seize the keystone over the next few weeks.

The fix: There are two possibilities. The more exciting one would be for young switch-hitter Raul Mondesi to make an offensive leap. The other would be for last year's solid fill-in for Mike Moustakas at third base, Cheslor Cuthbert, to show enough with the glove to hold down second base. If neither scenario pans out, the Royals might be left with a solution with less upside, in the form of either Whit Merrifield or Christian Colon.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS Problem projection: Second base WOBA (30th)

The Angels acquired Danny Espinosa from Washington during the offseason to plug the hole at second base. The problem is that the projection systems think he's only going to make it worse.

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The fix: Obviously, the Angels need Espinosa to justify their faith in him. For that, Espinosa needs to be more than an all- or-nothing hitter. If he can make more consistent contact and get his average even up to the .240s, his power bat and defense will help L.A. Can Espinosa adapt?

LOS ANGELES DODGERS Problem projection: Stolen bases (27th)

The Dodgers are pretty loaded, and as with the Orioles the paucity of steals on the roster isn't a huge problem. L.A. doesn't look like a super-athletic team overall, though, and given the depth of talent in camp, surely Dave Roberts could pinpoint someone who can steal a bag when needed.

The fix: Andrew Toles is a threat and will be on the roster from Opening Day this time. Beyond that ... it's just not the way the Dodgers are constructed. If Austin Barnes gets appreciable time in the majors this season, he can swipe a few bases.

Really though, the Dodgers will probably just have to settle for being good at everything else.

MIAMI MARLINS Problem projection: Home run percentage (26th)

Even with one of the premier long-ball threats in Giancarlo Stanton, the Marlins are a team more built around contact and average than homers. That makes sense, given the realities of Marlins Park. With so-so offensive projections on the infield corners, is there a hidden power bat looming who could help?

The fix: Alas, probably there isn't one. Miami's best hope for a few more easy runs is for dynamic young outfield of

Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna to continue to develop and stay healthy. If Justin Bour takes to his full-time gig at first base and has some success against lefties, that would also help.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS Problem projection: Strikeout rate (30th)

The young Brewers are weak in a lot of areas. The offense has some pop (eighth in home run percentage) but with a forecasted strikeout rate of 24 percent it remains to be seen if they can make enough contact for it to matter. On the spreadsheet, it sure doesn't look like it.

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The fix: Milwaukee is going young at most positions, so what you're really looking for is progress. If some or all of Jonathan Villar, Domingo Santana, Orlando Arcia, Travis Shaw and Keon Broxton can move their averages into the

.250s and .260s, that will be evidence of improved approaches.

MINNESOTA TWINS Problem projection: Pitchers' strikeout percentage (30th)

This has long been a problem for the Twins. When there are so many strikeouts to be had across baseball, it's swimming upstream to lag so far behind. That's especially true when Minnesota seems to be developing a set of powerful position players who collectively might be below average on defense.

The fix: It will take awhile for the new baseball operations team in Minnesota to implement their schemes. In the meantime, hope for Jose Berrios to find his command and put last season's unsightly numbers behind him. He has strikeout stuff.

NEW YORK METS Problem projection: Defensive runs saved (29th)

If healthy, the Mets' pitching staff will be at or near the top of the big league leaderboard in K's. Based on forecasts using

Baseball Info Solutions' DRS data, their position players are going to have to rake collectively to make up for shoddy glove work.

The fix: This isn't a new problem as New York finished 26th in defensive efficiency last year. According to the 2017 Bill

James Handbook, New York was minus-21 in DRS at third base alone. The solution is near and yet so far: two-time Gold

Glover David Wright is somewhere near good health.

NEW YORK YANKEES Problem projection: Third base WOBA (25th)

Chase Headley is a solid defensive third baseman and is adequate with the bat. He also is 33 and hit only three road homers last season. He never has been a great on-base guy, so as he ages his shortcomings at the plate stand out all the more.

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The fix: Again, it's patience. Headley is fine as a stopgap who should remain above replacement. Someday pretty soon,

Gleyber Torres will arrive and maybe around that time the Yankees will spend a gazillion dollars on somebody like Manny

Machado. For now, just watch to see if Headley shows signs of serious decline.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS Problem projection: Defensive runs saved (30th)

The A's don't just finish last in the DRS forecast -- they are last by a lot. Unfortunately, even if they had a stash of gloves in spring camp, they don't have enough offense to be able to afford many defense-for-offense tradeoffs. Still, given the potential for a solid, but young, starting rotation, you'd like to see those guys get all the help they can.

The fix: On some teams, a flashy shortstop can paper over a lot of defensive shortcomings. In Oakland, Marcus

Semien doesn't have the metrics to carry that weight, though he is a plus bat for the position. However, new third baseman Trevor Plouffe has to be better than what Oakland got last season from Danny Valencia & Co. The same faint praise could also be summoned for new Oakland center fielder Rajai Davis, who is far from a Gold Glover himself but should help improve upon last season's collective minus-17 DRS in center.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES Problem projection: Runs (28th)

In most cases, we're trying to stay away from the wide-lens metrics (like runs) but really that's the story of this year's

Phillies. They are probably still a transitional team, but the run prevention has enough potential that if the offense surprises, then maybe the Phillies emerge as a sleeper team.

The fix: The Phillies project to finish in the bottom half in WOBA at all eight non-pitching positions. In other words, there's no magic bullet. One of the sorest of the sore spots is shortstop (26th in WOBA), and that's where prospect J.P. Crawford could create some excitement.

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PITTSBURGH PIRATES Problem projection: Defensive runs saved (27th)

The Pirates are a sleeper contender with impact young guys sprouting around Andrew McCutchen. The poor defensive metrics might be more of a hangover from last season than anything, especially for McCutchen, who was moved out of center field just before spring training.

The fix: The grand vision is for Starling Marte to become an elite center fielder while the position switch reinvigorates

McCutchen's overall game. The other upgrade could come at shortstop if prospect Kevin Newman can impress Clint

Hurdle enough that he supplants at some point this season. Newman would be an upgrade at the plate, but if he ends up taking over for the steady Mercer, it will be because his defense has made the move palatable.

SAN DIEGO PADRES Problem projection: Starting pitcher FIP (25th)

The Padres project to be in the bottom three offensively at four different positions, but we're going to focus on the starting pitching anyway.

The fix: It's a time for innovation in San Diego. In an interview with the San Diego Union Tribune that was in turn spurred by an article at Baseball Prospectus, manager Andy Green seemed open to some serious tinkering with his starting pitching paradigm. Was he serious? Hope so, because that might be the one thing that could get a lot of non-San Diego fans to tune in.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS Problem projection: Third base WOBA (27th)

The Giants enter the season with last year's post-Matt Duffy combo of Eduardo Nunez and Conor Gillaspie back to man the hot corner. Not only is their offensive projection poor, but their DRS projection is below average as well. Nunez is slated to be the primary guy and though he turns 30 in June, he's a guy whose 16 homers last season nearly doubled his career total.

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The fix: How about plugging in a guy who hit .330 last season with 26 homers and 24 steals ... in Korea? We don't know what Jae-gyun Hwang, 29, can do yet, but we'll be watching because there is a prime opportunity for him in San

Francisco.

SEATTLE MARINERS Problem projection: First base WOBA (30th)

We've covered this a few times already, but with the Mariners going heavy on outfield defense, it's paramount for Seattle to get offense from first base. Obviously, the forecasts don't see that happening.

The fix: We know the names: former Cub Dan Vogelbach, who came over in July in the Mike Montgomery trade, and veteran Danny Valencia, who will start against lefties. Or at least that's the plan. Valencia is more of a sure bet -- he has put up an OPS at or near .800 in three of the past four seasons. Vogelbach's professional success has come exclusively in the minors. He went 1-for-12 in his first big league action last season. In Triple-A, however, he hit .292/.417/.505. That's what the Mariners need.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS Problem projection: Right-handed WOBA (16th)

The Cardinals look solid across the board, especially if Dexter Fowler boosts the outfield defense as planned. The rotation is solid, even after the frustrating injury to Alex Reyes, and the bullpen is deep.

The offensive projection is far from tragic but given the crowded wild-card derby in the NL, and the presumed dominance of the Cubs in the Central, a mediocre offense might not be enough to get the Redbirds into the postseason.

The fix: St. Louis doesn't have any massive holes in the lineup, so what you're looking for are the guys with the most breakout potential.

It's probably not realistic to ask more out of Aledmys Diaz than what he did last season, so it'll be up to the three youngest

Cardinals that figure to get regular playing time: Kolten Wong, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk.

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TAMPA BAY RAYS Problem projection: On-base percentage (29th)

The Rays hope to jump back into the playoff race on the heels of elite run prevention. So the position players tend to be more proficient with their gloves than their bats. There is a decent amount of power in the group, but with the worst forecasted batting average in baseball and a walks projection that ranks 25th, Tampa Bay needs some of these glove men to get on base.

The fix: Prospect Mallex Smith was traded twice last month, going from Atlanta to Seattle and then to the Rays in the Drew Smyly trade. Smith has a career .382 on-base percentage at the minor league level and stole as many as 88 bases in a season. He got into 72 games for the Braves last season, and while his .316 OBP doesn't make your heart race, it is better than the Rays' current forecast. He's not going to supplant Kevin Kiermaier in center field, but it would be great to see Smith force his way into regular playing time against righties.

TEXAS RANGERS Problem projection: Starting pitcher FIP (21st)

The Rangers hope to prop up their rotation once again with sterling back-of-the-bullpen work. The top of the rotation -- Yu

Darvish and Cole Hamels -- is terrific. After that, the Rangers have a lot of candidates to fill out the rotation but little certainty. Martin Perez is solid but lacks the strikeout rate to be a true impact No. 3 guy.

The fix: Who knows? There are possibilities in Tyson Ross, once he gets back from injury, Andrew Cashner and A.J.

Griffin. Still, if feels as if the Rangers will still be searching for that No. 3 starter throughout the early part of the season.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS Problem projection: Left-handed plate appearances (30th)

The Blue Jays have a few switch-hitting options, but Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak and weren't very good against righties last season. Meanwhile, only 7 percent of the Jays' plate appearances figure to come from lefty hitters, by far the lowest figure in the league according to our current depth chart. Those lefty hitters as a group project to post the lowest WOBA of any team in the majors.

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The fix: Maybe Ezequiel Carrera overachieves. Maybe Dalton Pompey, another switch-hitter, breaks through. He's hasn't shown much of a platoon split in the minors. Or maybe the Jays find they need another lefty bat.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS Problem projection: First-base WOBA (24th)

Like the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Cardinals and others, the Nats are hoping to smooth out any rough edges because the

Cubs-led competition in the looks fierce. After franchise stalwart Ryan Zimmerman hit .218/.272/.370 a year ago, you have to worry that his career is in a spiral.

The fix: Through a myriad injuries, Zimmerman's numbers have been in steady decline for a half decade, and the move across the diamond to first base hasn't helped. The hope is that last season was rock bottom and Zimmerman can finally find some injury luck. You hope so because if the Nationals finally breakthrough in the postseason, it'd be painful if

Zimmerman were not a part of it. Let's root for some spring renewal.

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Chris Rusin Could Crack Rockies' Rotation

By Connor Byrne / MLB Trade Rumors | February 26, 2017 at 10:11pm CDT

After posting career-best numbers while mostly serving as a reliever last year, southpaw Chris Rusin is in the mix to win a spot in the Rockies’ rotation this spring, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. “We are thinking about this fella as a starting pitcher,” said manager Bud Black. “We know that he’s versatile enough to go back in the bullpen, if needed, and if that’s what’s best for our staff.” The 30-year-old Rusin possesses plenty of starting experience, having worked from the rotation in 49 of 77 big league appearances with the Rockies and Cubs, but things haven’t gone well. In 260 innings,

Rusin has recorded a 5.19 ERA, 5.82 K/9 and 3.08 BB/9. Those numbers pale in comparison to his production as a reliever (3.20 ERA, 7.24 K/9, 2.09 BB/9 in 64 2/3 frames).

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Revisiting The DJ LeMahieu Trade

By Mark Polishuk / MLB Trade Rumors | February 26, 2017 at 10:11pm CDT

The December 2011 trade that sent DJ LeMahieu and Tyler Colvin from the Cubs to the Rockies in exchange for Ian

Stewart and Casey Weathers is revisited by Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. It was the first deal made by Theo

Epstein’s front office in Chicago and, in hindsight, one of the rare misses for the Cubs in the Epstein era. “Sometimes, you show up somewhere and you can make a mistake in your first off-season by not being as familiar as you should be with a player, because you haven’t seen him yourself in person,” Epstein said. “We felt like there were good bat-to-ball skills there [with LeMahieu], and sound defense. From the reports, we weren’t sold on his bat speed, didn’t think there’d be a lot of power. But he’s certainly proving us wrong. The bat-to-ball is really elite, and he’s made himself into one of the better defensive second basemen in the league.” LeMahieu, of course, developed into a regular for the Rockies at second and enjoyed a breakout year in 2016, hitting .348/.416/.495 and winning the NL batting title.

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Woody Paige: Colorado Rockies' 25th anniversary season could be special

By: Woody Paige / The Gazette | February 26, 2017

Could the Rockies' Silver Anniversary be the Year of the Purple Reign?

It's about time, in the franchise's 25th season, for the Rox to win their first division title.

But there are two major (league) roadblocks: The Dodgers and the Giants. The pair have won the National League West eight of the past nine seasons. The Diamondbacks finished first in 2011. Since the current division alignment originated in

1994, the Rockies' second season, the Dodgers have been No. 1 nine times (and the past four in a row), the Giants and the D-Backs five each and the Padres four (the last in 2006).

The Rockies were second in the NL West in the (strike-shortened) 1995 season, 2007 and 2009, and reached the postseason all three years, and the World Series 10 long years ago. They've had only six winning seasons.

But, the Rox baseball history is in the past.

Spring hopes are eternal.

The Rockies defeated those sly Snakes in Scottsdale 8-4 in the spring training opener Saturday, and their ambitious expectations are more sanguine, and logical, than usual.

- The Brothers Monfort, or The Bros. Grim, finally unlocked the company safe and pulled out hard cash to sign expensive position player Ian Desmond, even though he is playing out of position, and veteran relief pitchers Mike Dunn and Greg

Holland, although you can never be sure about relievers in thin air.

- Shortstop , with the storied rookie season before he tore a thumb ligament, is healthy again. Superb pitcher

Chad Bettis recovered from his frightening testicular cancer, and the Rockies didn't trade Carlos Gonzalez or Charlie

Blackmon.

- The Rockies' starting rotation is the most promising since 2007, with Bettis, Jon Gray, the Twin Tylers (Chatwood and

Anderson), Jordan Lyles and Jeff Hoffman.

- That blown-up bullpen will be improved with Adam Ottavino (past his Tommy John surgery), the addition of Dunn and

Holland ("Done and Bad Street"?) and the anticipated revival of Jake McGee.

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- The hirings of Bud "Paint It'' Black, the former Padres' manager and first former pitcher to manage the Rockies, and Mike

Redmond, the former Marlins' manager and the first ex-catcher to be the Rockies' bench coach, are very encouraging.

- Jeff Bridich didn't get an offseason personality transplant operation, but he has matured into his general manager's role and made several solid personnel decisions, and Dick Monfort has settled into the background where he belongs.

So, there should be optimism. Some national genii claim the Rox will be the surprise National League team of '17, and the preseason power ratings place Colorado in the top half of baseball, not among the bottom-feeders.

Donning new predominantly purple jerseys, not blue, the Rockies will go Deep Purple. They led the league in batting average and runs scored last season, and possess one of the most potent offensive lineups in the game.

Pitching and catching, and performance on the road, will be the critical questions. Can Tom and Tony (Murphy and

Wolters) handle the position and the staff? And can the Kiddie Korps rotation hold up for six innings and an entire season? The foursome of Black, Redmond, Steve Foster and Darren Holmes will be strong in helping Gray win 15-plus and the next four to reach double-digit victories.

The Rockies have to win at least 50 at home and more than 30 away, and they must be competitive in the division - with

26 of their final 29 against NL West opponents. (The other three are vs. the Marlins.)

But, of course, the Dodgers and the Giants are superior clubs - unless they suffer serious injuries on the mound. Los

Angeles has Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill up front and Kenley Jansen as the closer again. San Francisco counters with

Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto at the top of the rotation and fresh closer Mark Melancon, Colorado's own.

The Rockies look like third - and have to vie with another division team and the Cardinals, the Nationals and the Mets for the wild-card spots.

Cheerfully, there can be an 85-77 record, a Silver Lining and a Grape Crush to Rox25.

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