Manhattan Office Market

RESEARCH 2Q 2020 MANHATTAN OFFICE MARKET

MARKET REMAINS STALLED AS CURRENT CONDITIONS

COVID-19 IMPACT CONTINUES The market remained largely frozen in the second quarter, with early signs of impact apparent in leasing activity, sublease availability, and concessions. Although COVID-19 first struck New York in early March, the full brunt of the pandemic was felt in the second quarter. Social-distancing Leasing velocity fell just above 3 million square feet, the lowest quarterly regulations and a dramatic change in business and consumer confidence activity in more than a decade. brought the office market to a near halt as many companies opted to put The overall availability rate increased by 10 basis points as four large blocks their requirements on hold. Leasing activity in the second quarter totaled came to market. just 3.0 million square feet, the lowest quarterly total in more than 15 years.

Available sublease space increased by 521,525 square feet quarter over MARKET ANALYSIS quarter. An additional 1.2 million square are expected to be added imminently, with 16 companies putting at least 30,000 square feet on the Asking Rent and Availability market. The addition of four blocks of space over 100,000 square feet, three of which were subleases, drove overall availability up 10 basis $90 16% points quarter over quarter to 11.9%. In addition to the sublease spaces, $80 14% the availability rate is expected to continue to increase as co-working and $70 12% flex providers downsize and give space back to landlords. During the $60 10% second quarter, co-working providers announced the closure of six $50 locations totaling 440,125 square feet. $40 8% After steadily increasing for six consecutive quarters, asking rents fell by $30 6% 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 2Q19 2Q20 $0.73/SF from last quarter to $80.98/SF. Each of the three major markets Average Asking Rent (Price/SF) Availability (%) and 11 of the 19 submarkets saw quarter-over-quarter declines in average asking rents. Midtown South posted the greatest drop-off, $1.66/SF from the first quarter. Much of the decreased rents can be Net Absorption (SF, Millions) attributed to the growth in sublease availability, with space priced below 6 average, while some landlords began to adjust pricing. Sublease rents dropped by $1.21/SF, as compared to a $0.17/SF decline for direct 3 spaces. 0 With the sharp decline in activity, absorption posted at negative 1,393,759 -3 square feet. The market has seen negative absorption in six of the past seven quarters, with year-to-date absorption recorded at negative -6 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 2Q19 2Q20 2,159,968 square feet, the lowest first-half total in three years.

By the end of the quarter, nearly all construction had resumed work as MARKET SUMMARY part of the governor’s phased reopening. With no deliveries this quarter, Current Prior Year Ago 12 Month Quarter Quarter Period Forecast 16.1 million square feet remain under construction. Approximately 3.1 million square feet are expected to deliver in the second half of 2020. The Total Inventory 460.3 MSF 460.5 MSF 455.9 MSF  largest projects include SL Green’s 1 Vanderbilt Avenue and Vornado’s Availability Rate 11.9% 11.8% 11.7%  Farley Building at 390 Ninth Avenue. Seven projects announced new Quarterly Net Absorption -1,393,759 -766,209 1,139,942  delivery dates, while more are expected to be delayed. Average Asking Rent $80.98 $81.71 $77.39 

Under Construction 16.1 MSF 16.1 MSF 16.9 MSF 

Deliveries 0 MSF 0.6 MSF 2.9 MSF 

MIDTOWN MIDTOWN SOUTH Despite Notable Renewals, Velocity Drops from First Quarter Leasing Activity Comes to Standstill, Reaching Cyclical Low

TikTok signed Midtown’s largest deal of the quarter at 151 West 42nd After four consecutive quarters of increases, Midtown South rents fell Street, marking the third consecutive quarter that a tech company by $1.66/SF quarter over quarter to $84.69/SF. Hudson completed a deal for a new Midtown headquarters. The growing social Square/Meatpacking saw rents decline by $9.10/SF from the first media company signed for 232,138 square feet in its move from a quarter, after expensive sublease space was leased at 345 Hudson WeWork location in Midtown. Facebook also remains close to finalizing Street and asking rents were recently lowered at the newly constructed a lease for 740,000 square feet at the Farley Building, to accompany its 40 Tenth Avenue. 1.5 million square feet in Hudson Yards that it took in the fourth quarter. The Midtown South availability rate increased by 20 basis points to Several tenants in Midtown signed short-term renewals, reserving the 10.1%. This jump was driven by two 50,000-square-foot sublease flexibility to reenter the market in the coming years, as the pandemic additions, at WeWork’s headquarters at 113-133 West 18th Street and at and economic reactions stabilize. Law firm Allen & Overy renewed its 10 Hudson Square from an MDC Partners agency. Availability is lease at 1221 Avenue of the Americas and Mitsubishi Corporation expected to continue to rise as the bulk of co-working closures in the extended for one year at 655 Third Avenue. second quarter were located in Midtown South.

Midtown asking rents were recorded at $85.76/SF, a quarter-over- The largest deal in Midtown South was signed by Match Group for quarter decline of $0.52/SF. The largest changes by submarket, each 40,569 square feet at 60-74 Gansevoort Street. The new Meatpacking more than $3.00/SF, were seen in Times Square, the Plaza District and development was completed earlier this year. Amazon-owned Twitch the Far West Side. The removal of space taken by TikTok caused the also completed a deal to relocate, taking 34,844 square feet at 315 Park drop-off in the Times Square submarket. Adjustments in pricing at 9 Avenue South in its move from an Industrious location. At 358,000 West 57th Street and 625 Madison Avenue resulted in the $3.86/SF drop square feet, velocity was down 62.8% from the first quarter. The year- in Plaza District asking rents from the first quarter. Similarly, a drop in over-year decline was 87.2% from the 2.8 million square feet leased in pricing at 441 Ninth Avenue led to the $3.76/SF decrease in the Far the second quarter of last year. West Side. Conversely, the Westside saw a $2.15/SF increase from the The long-awaited Essex Crossing development is slated to open in the first quarter, as high-priced space came onto the market at 825 Eighth coming months, as are multiple boutique projects in Midtown South. Avenue. These include 520 West 20th Street, 76 Eighth Avenue, and 60 Charlton The Midtown availability rate was stable from last quarter, closing at Street, which, coupled with the two Essex Crossing buildings, add 12.5%. Limited leasing activity offset the lone large block addition, 475,000 square feet to market inventory. 151,408 square feet of sublease space at 410 Tenth Avenue. As a result, Faced with rent collection difficulties and densification issues, co- absorption posted at negative 408,189 square feet. working and flex providers began to downsize in the second quarter, In addition to 1 Vanderbilt Avenue and the Farley Post Office building, returning 396,125 square feet to landlords. This space encompassed 183,910 square feet at 1245 Broadway are also expected to deliver later five separate locations, with the majority concentrated in Flatiron/Union this year. Both 425 Park Avenue and 106 West 56th Street, a boutique Square. Midtown South is now home to 5.1 million square feet of co- building in Sixth Ave/Rock Center, are slated to open in 2021. working.

AVERAGE ASKING RENT BY SUBMARKET AVAILABILITY BY SUBMARKET

Average Asking Rent ($/SF) Availability Rate (%)

100 20%

80 16%

60 12%

40 8%

20 4%

0 0% 2Q10 2Q12 2Q14 2Q16 2Q18 2Q20 2Q10 2Q12 2Q14 2Q16 2Q18 2Q20

Midtown Midtown South Downtown Midtown Midtown South Downtown

DOWNTOWN Downtown Sees Minimal Changes in Asking Rents As in Midtown and Midtown South, drops in leasing resulted in low The three largest deals Downtown accounted for 71.8% of the market’s absorption, which posted at negative 482,259 square feet. The leasing activity in the second quarter. This was led by the SEC, which availability rate increased by 60 basis points from last quarter to signed for 241,339 square feet at the redeveloped 100 Pearl Street. The 11.9%, as large blocks came to market at 55 Water Street and 200 building is expected to be completed in June 2021. Other notable deals Vesey Street, as well as 85,000 square feet of non-contiguous space include Stroock’s extension at 180 Maiden Lane, PolicyGenius’ deal for at 33 Whitehall Street. 85,526 square feet at 32 Old Slip in its move from Midtown South, as well as the Department of Education’s renewal in the same building for Asking rents declined by just $0.33/SF, the smallest quarter-over- 65,796 square feet. The top five deals were each signed in Downtown quarter change of the three major markets, as rents closed at East. Second-quarter activity totaled just 726,000 square feet, a 45.3% $63.83/SF. This was due to SEC’s lease of expensive space at 100 drop from the first quarter. This was the first time in more than three Pearl Street. years that Downtown velocity did not surpass 1 million square feet.

MIDTOWN LEASE TRANSACTIONS

Tenant Building Submarket Type Square Feet

TikTok 151 West 42nd Street Times Square Direct New 232,138 Sixth Avenue/Rockefeller Allen & Overy LLP 1221 Avenue of the Americas Direct Renewal 143,331 Center Mitsubishi International Corporation 655 Third Avenue Grand Central Direct Extension 120,075 Remedy Partners 685 Third Avenue Grand Central Sublease New 74,349 Sixth Avenue/Rockefeller Colliers 1114 Avenue of the Americas Direct New 59,052 Center

MIDTOWN SOUTH LEASE TRANSACTIONS

Tenant Building Submarket Type Square Feet Hudson Square/ Match Group 60-74 Gansevoort Street Direct New 40,569 Meatpacking Twitch 315 Park Avenue South Flatiron/Union Square Sublease New 34,844 Exela Technologies 601 West 26th Street Chelsea Direct New 17,078 Hudson Square/ Current Bank (Finco Services) 345 Hudson Street Sublease New 13,646 Meatpacking Watermark 71 West 23rd Street Chelsea Direct Renewal 13,023

DOWNTOWN LEASE TRANSACTIONS

Tenant Building Submarket Type Square Feet

SEC 100 Pearl Street Downtown East Direct New 241.339 Stroock 180 Maiden Lane Downtown East Direct Extension 195,000 PolicyGenius 32 Old Slip Downtown East Direct New 85,526 US Department of Education – 32 Old Slip Downtown East Direct Renewal 65,796 Civil Rights Division Lippe Taylor 140 Broadway Downtown East Sublease New 25,391

SUBMARKET STATISTICS

Total Under Total Qtr YTD Direct Sublet Total Inventory Construction Availability Absorption Absorption Asking Rent Asking Rent Asking Rent (SF) (SF) Rate (SF) (SF) (Price/SF) (Price/SF) (Price/SF)

Midtown 288,330,125 13,114,527 12.5% -408,189 -1,152,504 $89.45 $67.44 $85.76

Eastside 24,359,163 0 16.3% -34,106 69,949 $78.09 $53.92 $76.20

Far West Side 11,748,159 9,662,418 6.3% -164,543 -118,606 $118.08 $85.36 $108.97

Grand Central 47,556,123 1,732,955 11.5% 11,034 -120,108 $93.19 $59.81 $89.46

Murray Hill 7,837,204 0 11.3% -13,807 -73,371 $64.32 $55.52 $62.78

Park Avenue 26,969,382 705,244 11.2% -129,497 21,032 $115.13 $74.62 $109.65

Penn Station 22,054,602 923,910 11.9% -12,924 214,039 $94.22 $61.86 $83.62

Plaza District 26,733,087 0 16.7% -72,388 -284,477 $110.21 $103.75 $109.30

Sixth Ave/Rock Center 45,231,157 90,000 9.9% 139,701 -54,123 $89.04 $67.96 $85.84

Times Square 14,663,247 0 15.6% 254,045 238,107 $78.89 $68.06 $77.75

Times Square South 35,474,092 0 9.7% -238,594 -290,270 $57.97 $52.87 $56.89

Westside 25,703,909 0 17.8% -147,110 -754,676 $84.19 $64.71 $79.12

Midtown South 76,593,740 2,936,281 10.1% -503,311 -1,229,563 $88.93 $71.51 $84.69

Chelsea 28,558,736 1,016,469 9.3% -293,176 -597,130 $71.29 $69.65 $70.75

East Village 1,772,657 414,435 25.8% -2,422 -10,585 $97.19 $59.00 $96.89

Flatiron/Union Square 24,669,706 268,560 11.4% -94,597 -307,270 $92.79 $69.64 $88.82

Hudson Sq./Meatpacking 11,797,533 988,866 7.5% -80,611 -289,125 $109.17 $78.29 $94.94

NoHo/SoHo 9,795,108 247,951 9.1% -32,505 -25,453 $99.80 $66.96 $96.79

Downtown 95,332,765 80,000 11.9% -482,259 222,099 $65.69 $57.83 $63.83

Downtown East 49,946,372 80,000 10.5% -42,165 203,478 $58.33 $49.20 $56.27

Downtown West 36,676,367 0 14.3% -419,193 66,663 $69.56 $64.79 $68.23

Tribeca/City Hall 8,710,026 0 9.1% -20,901 -48,042 $87.53 $71.02 $87.07

Manhattan 460,256,630 16,130,808 11.9% -1,393,759 -2,159,968 $84.64 $65.65 $80.98

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY COVID-19 has caused a dramatic deterioration to an economy that previously had been very strong. The national and local unemployment New York City, May 2020 rates were both below 5% pre-COVID-19, with each now above 13%. In Manufacturing just two months, the U.S. unemployment rate has more than doubled 1.3% 2.8% and the New York unemployment rate has more than quadrupled. The 3.7% Construction U.S. has lost 19.6 million jobs since the start of the pandemic, of which Other Services 2.7 million were office-using. Since February, there have been 47.2 19.2% 5.2% Information million national weekly unemployment insurance claims, more than 10.0 5.9% Education million above the total during the Great Recession. Leisure/Hospitality 4.2% New York City has lost 144,400 office-using jobs since the onset of the Financial Activities pandemic. The financial services and information sectors saw much 18.1% 12.0% Trade/Transportation/Utilities shallower impact, with year-over-year employment declines of just 4.9% Government and 6.6%, respectively. Professional services are down 13.3% in that Business & Professional same time frame. The healthcare and social assistance industry, which 12.9% 14.8% accounts for nearly a fifth of jobs in New York City, shed 73,700 jobs Health over the past year. By comparison, the hospitality industry saw the greatest declines, with a 66.9% decrease in employment from May 2019. Source: New York State Department of Labor

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT

Not Seasonally Adjusted Total Nonfarm, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change

20% 5% 18% 16% 0% 14% 12% -5% 10% 8% -10% 6% 4% -15% 2% 0% -20% May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20

United States New York City United States New York City

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY INDUSTRY

All Items, 12-Month % Change, Not Seasonally Adjusted NYC, May 2020, 12-Month % Change, Not Seasonally Adj.

4% Total Government 3% Financial Activities Information 2% Health Care Professional & Business 1% Education Trade/Transportation/Utilities 0% Manufacturing -1% Other Services May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 Mining and Construction Leisure/Hospitality United States New York City -75.0% -60.0% -45.0% -30.0% -15.0% 0.0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: New York State Department of Labor

JONATHAN MAZUR STEPHANIE JENNINGS ALISON BAUMANN STEPHEN TSAMBLAKOS Senior Managing Director Managing Director Associate Director, Research Senior Research Analyst 212.372.2154 212.372.2099 [email protected] [email protected] MICHAEL MICELI RONNIE WAGNER Associate Director, Research Director, Research

Newmark Knight Frank has implemented a proprietary database and our tracking methodology has been revised. With this expansion and refinement in our data, there may be adjustments in historical statistics including availability, asking rents, absorption and effective rents. Newmark Knight Frank Research Reports are available at www.ngkf.com/research

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