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Highs and Lows on 'One Belt One Route'

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Highs and Lows on 'One Belt One Route' view in browser 2 6 J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 5 highs and lows on 'one belt one route' among the wealth of weekly commentary, we track local issues with global impact As the economy hits a 25-year low, political tension approaches a 25-year high; the Central Discipline Inspection Commission, the internal Party police, has held—unusually —two plenary meetings in three months. State media now finds it must counter anti- corruption scepticism and fatigue, and insists there will be no 'kings in iron hats' (referring to certain Manchu clans enjoying hereditary immunity). Who will be the next 'tiger' to fall? Many hold their breath, transfixed and wondering what's in store. With these tensions, Premier Li's nod to the 'world order' at Davos (see below) is a straw in the wind. But will 'one belt one route' deliver more economic highs than political lows? 'one belt one route' is no Marshall Plan Chu Yin 储殷 | China Org The Chinese Marshall Plan, as 'one belt one route' has been inventively dubbed, lacks the military safeguards of the original. Plentiful pitfalls lie in its path, finds governance analyst Chu Yin. The list starts with scale asymmetry: smaller states along the ancient Silk Road 'may not remember us as fondly as we imagine'. India and Russia will need to buy in, but the pattern elsewhere has been for China to back away from major powers. Southeast Asia's overseas Chinese play major political and economic roles, yet cannot be assumed to identify with the PRC. The regions along the belt and route are far from promising investment zones; offloading domestic overcapacity on to them has a political, not economic calculus. border strategy is emerging staff reporter 该报记者 | Xinhua Still deeper analysis of 'one belt one route' emerges from a book-length report produced by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Given the imperative need to acquire maritime power to safeguard vital lifelines, the Rubik’s cube of major power relations (with the US, Japan, Russia and India) must be solved as amicably as possible. Hence 'one belt one route', heavy on the rhetoric of cooperation, interconnection and win-win. A less forthright list of risks accompanies the takeaway message underscored by CASS Institute scholar Zhang Jie 张洁: the economic strategy is based around 'one belt one route', and the security strategy based around controlling maritime issues form a pair of parallel tracks on which 'China's grand strategy' is set to run. combining morality with interests: new foreign strategy Feng Weijiang 冯维江 | Modern Bankers The 'one belt one route' initiative, this time as it might play out in Africa, is in the background of a CASS scholar's commentary on foreign aid policy. The Marshall Plan parallel is again in play, drawing attention to 'one belt one route's' massive diversion of investment beyond China's border. Making the less developed states along the belt and route aware of globalisation benefits, and providing the opportunities to access them, are spectacular goals. Feng Weijiang Institute of World Economics and Politics, finds it necessary to go through old arguments for the 'identity of ethics and interests', persuading the public that altruism will pay off. Drop me a line 保持联系吧, David +86 10 6417 2551 Chu Yin 储殷 International Studies University Department of Public Policy A frequent commentator on public policy, Chu is often critical, seeing no conflict between 'non-interference in other nations' and protecting China's national interests overseas. Given limited force projection overseas, China still needs rapport with old international partners. Russia however, with its remnant imperial ambitions, should be treated with reserve. Zhang Jie 张洁 CASS Asia-Pacific Research Institute Zhang Jie regularly unpacks Xi Jinping’s 习近平 ideas in the 'People's Theory' section of People’s Daily. The peripheral relation principles enunciated by Xi (cozy, sincere, profitable, inclusive), boil down, she argues, to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexist ence, hence will be kept in place in 'one belt one route'. Firmly defending the Second Thomas Shoal 仁爱礁 (claimed by both China and the Philippines) as Chinese territory, she calls for setting up admin istrative control and economic development of the South China Sea with tougher maritime policing. With Indonesia rotating into the ASEAN chair in 2015, she predicts boundary pressure will face more pressure. Feng Weijiang 冯维江 CASS Institute of World Economics and Politics Given to couching foreign relations in Confucian terms—'benevolence' and 'righteousness'—Feng heralds the 2014 FTA with South Korea as 'fraternal economics'. 'One belt one route', he says, combines righteousness (aka altruism) and interest (exports, shifting from products and services to developmental models and growth concepts). Criticising the EU and Russia for splitting Ukraine via trading, loans, and ideological promotions, Feng suggests offsetting their influence as a better partner, connecting Ukraine with world trading systems and staying ideologically neutral. L E A D E R S H I P O N T H E M O V E Appearing at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Premier Li Keqiang 李克强 stepped up to fill a five-year gap in high-level China presence at the Switzerland meet. He gave a measured performance—relaxed and confident, yet in tune with the recent eye-opening deference to the 'world order' shown by his deputy, Wang Yang 汪洋, in Chicago in December 2014 (cp.leads 141222, 150106). Li's big takeaway was: The world order established after World War II, as well as generally recognised norms governing international relations, must be maintained, not overturned —otherwise prosperity and development may be jeopardised. In other respects, his address was on message to talk up inward investment. According to ringside observer, Wen Zhao 文钊 editor in chief of reformist weekly Economic Observer, signals Li emphasised were: China's economy is running soundly and won't have a hard landing. It is experiencing a change of gears rather than a slowdown. The state will resist the urge to stimulate the economy, focusing instead on reform— adjusting market-state relations to form a 'dual drive'. Thresholds for foreign investment will be reduced. International capital will lose its edge and its high returns, becoming as an ordinary competitor. Wen made more of the second point than the others, reiterating the overall theme of moving forward with reforms and structural change, while keeping a moderate to high growth rate. J U S T I N C A S E Y O U M I S S E D I T . cp.leads—geo-strategic trends wielding the scalpel snakes and ladders of the new diplomacy (updated) cp.signals—domestic policy signals tax seesaw taxi apps challenge local monopoly interests cp.focus—exploratory analysis The project system: China's fiscal pacemaker and its cyclical legacy 4th Plenum: narrowing the space for special interests cp.record—systematic policy audits Social Policy Record Economy Record Governance and Law Record cp.public hip flicks for sinophiles Copyright © 2015 China Policy, All rights reserved. This email was sent to <<Email Address>> why did I get this? unsubscribe from this list update subscription preferences China Policy · Chaoyang District · Beijing, Beijing 100027 · China .
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