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2020 Post-Election Recap and Outlook

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2020 Post-Election Recap and Outlook 2020 Post-Election Recap and Outlook Please click here for complete election results from the Michigan Secretary of State. Summary: As with many other states in the 2020 election, Michigan’s results were closer than expected and resulted in narrow victories for top-of-the ticket Democratic candidates. However, Republicans were able to maintain their legislative majority in the state House of Representatives, and kept several contested Congressional seats. Michigan’s state government remains closely divided, like the federal government in Washington, D.C. Background: Following strong Democratic statewide gains in 2018 and based on polling trends, Democrats were expected to succeed in Michigan in 2020. Presidential candidate Joe Biden saw Michigan – along with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – as key to rebuilding the traditional Midwestern “blue wall” in the Electoral College. Biden had enjoyed consistent polling leads of between 5 and 10% leading up to the election. Democrats also hoped to “flip” the state House of Representatives to control one of the state legislative bodies for the first time since 2010, and give Governor Whitmer a governing partner. They only needed to flip four seats to do so, and were targeting several strong opportunities in suburban Oakland and Kalamazoo counties with the help of large campaign funds raised. For the U.S. House of Representatives, Democrats were targeting two seats for potential pickups: the third district around Grand Rapids held by outgoing Rep. Justin Amash (now a Libertarian), and the sixth district in Kalamazoo and SW Michigan held by longtime moderate Republican Rep. Fred Upton. On the other hand, first-term U.S. Senator Gary Peters was one of only two Democratic Senators that national Republicans realistically hoped to defeat. Republican challenger John James narrowly lost to Sen. Debbie Stabenow in 2018 and was running another strong race against Peters in 2020. Federal Results: • President: While very early Michigan in-person results favored President Donald Trump, the counting of numerous absentee ballots overnight and into the day after the election made it clear that Joe Biden would win Michigan’s 16 electoral votes. On Wednesday afternoon, most networks called the state for Biden, and state totals show the former Vice President with a statewide lead of around 150,000 votes, or 50.6% to 47.9%. For reference, President Trump won Michigan by less than 11,000 votes in 2016. • U.S. Senate: Gary Peters was likewise called the winner of the Senate race, but by a narrower margin of around 90,000 votes, or 50% to 48%. The American Chemistry Council had supported Senator Peters – the chair of the Congressional Chemistry Caucus – for his re-election earlier this year. • U.S. House of Representatives: Following a 2018 election where Democrats won two Congressional seats and in a cycle where they hoped to flip two more, none of the state’s Congressional districts ended up changing party hands in 2020. o Third Congressional District: Republican, political newcomer, veteran, and millennial grocery-store scion Peter Meijer won his race against Democrat Hillary Scholten in a race that attracted national attention and large fundraising sums. The final margin was about 15,000 votes, or 53% to 47%. o Sixth Congressional District: Republican Rep. Fred Upton - current dean of the state’s Congressional Delegation and former chairman of the House Energy & Commerce Committee – won his 18th term in Congress, defeating progressive challenger Jon Hoadley by a 60,000 vote margin, or 56% to 40%. While a consistent target of national Democrats, Upton continues to win over voters in his district. th th o 8 and 11 Congressional Districts: Freshmen Democratic Representatives Elissa Slotkin and Haley Stevens, respectively, won their first re-election campaigns against lackluster Republican challengers. Slotkin and Stevens have proven to be relatively moderate Representatives and fundraising powerhouses, but may have been more vulnerable than expected if Republicans had fielded better candidates in 2020. o The state’s Congressional delegation remains split 7-7 along party lines. However, the state is expected to lose another seat after the next round of redistricting in 2021, and it remains to be seen how the new independent commission will impact the partisan balances of districts. State Results • Michigan House of Representatives: In 2020, every seat in the 110-member state House was up for re-election. There were 25 open seats: 22 due to Michigan’s strictest-in-the-nation term limits, and three where incumbents had run for higher office. The Republicans will end up maintaining their current 58-52 majority, despite a strong Democratic effort. Democrats ended up flipping two open seats – one in the Portage suburbs of Kalamazoo and another in the Novi suburbs of Oakland County. However, Republicans held onto the rest of their seats, and ended up actually unseating two Democratic incumbents in the more Trump- friendly areas of Bay and Genesee Counties. The Michigan House will have 28 new members in 2021, which is a turnover rate of 25%. Please click here for a brief overview and biographies of the incoming representatives. • While the Michigan Senate was not up for election in 2020, there were two Republican Senators (Sen. Peter MacGregor from Kent County and Sen. Peter Lucido from Macomb County) who won races for local offices. Their vacancies will leave the Senate with a narrower 20-16 Republican majority until special elections can be held to fill these seats. It is also probable that current Republican Representatives will run for – and win – these Senate seats, which will then leave the House’s Republican majority likewise narrowed for some period of time. New House Legislative Leadership: • House Speaker – Jason Wentworth (R-Clare) – Army veteran and former member of military police and civilian law enforcement; he led the House’s effort to reform no-fault auto insurance laws in 2019. Wentworth is the fifth consecutive Republican House speaker that is 40 or younger (following after Jase Bolger, Kevin Cotter, Tom Leonard, and Lee Chatfield). • House Majority Floor Leader – Ben Frederick (R-Owosso) – former legislative staffer and Owosso city council member/mayor • House Minority Leader – Donna Laskinski (D-Scio Township) – local educational advocate and Ann Arbor School Board member; while generally a moderate business-friendly Democrat, Lasinski formerly worked for DTE Energy and generally supported utility interests during her two terms as minority vice chair of the House Energy Committee • House Minority Floor Leader – Yousef Rabhi (D-Ann Arbor) – strong advocate for environmental and renewable energy issues Current Senate Leadership Continues (Mostly): • Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake) – strong industry partner and stalwart electric choice champion • Majority Floor Leader – with the departure of Senator MacGregor, Senator Dan Lauwers (R-St. Clair County) will likely assume this role • Appropriations Chair – Jim Stamas (R-Midland) – strong industry partner, including on issues like building codes and environmental regulations • Minority Leader – Jim Ananich (D-Flint) – respected and returns as minority leader for another 4 years • Minority Floor Leader – Stephanie Chang (D-Detroit) – Senator-elect who has been active on environmental issues pertinent to her SW Detroit district • Michigan Supreme Court: While state Supreme Court Justices are technically elected on a nonpartisan ballot, they are nominated by the state parties. Two of the court’s seven seats were up for election in 2020, and Democratic-nominated candidates won both seats: Bridget McCormack – who was previously chosen by her peers as Chief Justice despite not being in the “majority” at that time – was re-elected, and attorney Elizabeth Welch won an open seat. This “flips” the Court to a 4-3 majority of Democratic-nominated Justices and may potentially impact certain cases decided along more ideological lines, like the recent decision overturning the Governor’s COVID-19 emergency powers. State Policy Outlook: 2020 Lame duck: The final four-week lame duck session of 2020 will likely be extremely modest, at least in comparison with the epic 2018 session, when the Legislature passed a whopping 401 bills after the election. A few remaining issues for potential consideration include: continuation of COVID-related unemployment benefits, further criminal justice reforms, changes to local authority over gravel mining operations, and greater public transparency for the Legislature and Governor’s office. 2021 and beyond For starters, it should be noted that Governor Whitmer – who had been at least minimally vetted by Joe Biden to be his running mate – earlier this week made it clear that she wasn’t interested in joining a Biden administration as part of his cabinet, so it appears likely she will continue as Governor for at least the next two years. In 2021, Michigan’s government will remain closely divided, and Governor Whitmer will have to either rely upon executive authorities or work across the aisle to advance any parts of her agenda. Of course, the state’s COVID-19 response (and the resulting economic and budget collapse) occupied much of the attention in 2020, and the issue is likely to do so well into 2021. Following the House’s organization and orientation of new members will be the State of the State address, followed by the kickoff of the next year’s budget process in early spring. Roads funding is certain to remain a priority for the Governor (although prospects remain challenging given the pandemic and economy), along with workforce development issues. Other issues like the Governor’s climate change goals will be difficult to achieve through the Republican-controlled Legislature, and so expect to see continued emphasis on executive initiatives through EGLE and other state departments. The Michigan Chemistry Council’s main legislative priority remains the passage of comprehensive recycling and solid waste reforms, while the MCC expects that regulatory issues at EGLE will continue to present challenges.
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