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RESEARCH IN NOAA January 2008 Toward Understanding and Predicting Earth’s Environment A fIVE yEAR pLAN: Fiscal Years 2008-2012 inside frontcover NOAA’s Mission To understand and predict changes in Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our Nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs A fIVE yEAR pLAN: Fiscal Years 2008-2012 RESEARCH IN NOAA January 2008 Toward Understanding and Predicting Earth’s Environment inside frontcover A fIVE yEAR pLAN: Fiscal Years 2008-2012 Preface Recognizing that research is the foundation for an innova- tive and productive society, NOAA has taken steps in the past several years to maximize the benefits of its research. NOAA established the NOAA Research Council, http://www. nrc.noaa.gov, to ensure the agency’s research activities are of the highest quality, meet long-range societal needs, take advantage of emerging scientific and technological op- portunities, and shape a forward-looking research agenda. Additionally, NOAA has adopted a Transition of Research to Application policy and implementation procedures, which have established a consistent process within NOAA for identifying mature research and for accelerating the rate at which this research transitions into applications. In 2005, NOAA released its first agency-wide research plan, describing an interdisciplinary and coordinated approach to the research needed to support its mission for fiscal years 2005-2009. Production of the research plan was overseen by the NOAA Research Council, and in 2005 the Research Council also produced a 20-year “Research Vision” to provide overarching direction for the agency’s research based on its perspective of the environmental challenges likely to face the nation in the decades ahead. The vision document recognizes NOAA’s fundamental role in supporting policy and decision makers in addressing those challenges, and the first five-year plan gave voice to the research needed at the outset to meet society’s needs. The ensuing two years have seen considerable progress in achieving the milestones set out in the original plan, as NOAA continues to adjust its science and infrastructure to better meet the increasingly complex environmental and socioeconomic challenges of the 21st century. The past two years have also seen new environmental issues emerge in the spotlight of scientific and public concern, such as the possible relationship between climate change and hurricane intensity or the possibility of prolonged drought in the western United States. It is timely, therefore, to revisit the original research plan, assess the progress made, consider potential new emphases, and issue this new edition of NOAA’s research plan for 2008-2012. The current plan emphasizes even more the societal needs that drive NOAA’s research and the central role of research in underpinning NOAA’s products and services that seek to satisfy those needs. As our nation’s social and economic systems grow increasingly com- plex and interdependent, our vulnerability to environmental stresses likewise increases. In the 21st century, a resilient society and economy depend on informed decisions about dealing with environmental change and managing our resources. Research is at the heart of making informed deci- sions, and NOAA remains committed to supporting a vigorous and broad portfolio of research to achieve the goals in NOAA’s Strategic Plan related to ecosystems, climate, weather and water, and commerce and transportation. NOAA research is undertaken in partnership with the wider national and international research community, and NOAA continually seeks advice from that community to ensure its research remains vital and relevant. The environmental challenges and opportunities facing humanity demand collaboration across institutions to realize the full benefits of research at NOAA. NOAA looks forward to working with its partners in implementing the research described in this plan and ensuring that research is effectively and efficiently translated into meaningful application. u u u u Research in NOAA u u u u Toward Understanding and Predicting Earth’s Environment Table Of Contents u u u u PREFACE .........................................................................................................................................................iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..............................................................................................................................x 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................1 2. FRAMING NOAA’S FUTURE RESEARCH ..........................................................................................3 2.1 Societal Contex .........................................................................................................................................3 2.1.1 Resilience ...........................................................................................................................................3 2.1.2. Competitiveness ...............................................................................................................................4 2.1.3 Informed decisions .............................................................................................................................5 2.2 NOAA Now – A Special Agency with a Unique Mandate and Capabilities ..................................5 2.3 NOAA Next – Improved Products, Services, and Information through Integrated Research .......................................................................................................................................6 2.4 Growing a Social Sciences Research Base at NOAA ...........................................................................7 2.5 Transformational Research in NOAA ...................................................................................................8 2.6 The Role of NOAA’s Research Partner’s ...............................................................................................8 2.6.1 Universities .......................................................................................................................................9 2.6.2 Federal and state agencies .................................................................................................................9 2.6.3 Private sector.....................................................................................................................................10 2.6.4 International research partners .........................................................................................................10 3. RESEARCH TOOLS FOR IMPROVING PRODUCTS, SERVICES, AND INFORMATION ............11 3.1 Integrated Observations ..........................................................................................................................11 3.2 Environmental Analysis .........................................................................................................................12 3.3 Predictive Modeling ................................................................................................................................13 4. OVERVIEW OF NOAA’S MISSION GOALS .........................................................................................15 5. ECOSYSTEMS MISSION GOAL: PROTECT, RESTORE, AND MANAGE USE OF COASTAL AND OCEAN RESOURCES THROUGH ECOSYSTEM APPROACHES TO MANAGEMENT ...................17 5.1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................................17 Ecosystem Approaches to Management .....................................................................................................17 5.2 Developing and Applying the Research Tools ....................................................................................18 5.3 Outcomes and Performance Objectives ................................................................................................18 5.4 Research Areas .........................................................................................................................................19 5.4.1 Advancing understanding of ecosystems to improve resource management ....................................19 5.4.2 Exploring our oceans ........................................................................................................................22 5.4.3 Forecasting ecosystem events............................................................................................................22 5.4.4 Developing integrated ecosystem assessments and scenarios, and building capacity to support regional management .................................................................................................24 6. CLIMATE MISSION GOAL: UNDERSTAND CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE TO ENHANCE SOCIETY’S ABILITY TO PLAN AND RESPOND...............................................................27 6.1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................................27 6.2 Developing and Applying the Research Tools ....................................................................................28 6.3 Outcomes and Performance Objectives ................................................................................................28 u 6.4 Research Areas .........................................................................................................................................29