WRWM_0211.qxd 23/2/11 16:18 Page 1 Feb 2011 What Really Wins Money An independent review of tipsters and betting systems Cheltenham Festival Special Issue! elcome to February’s WRWM. And it’s that I think I’ve uncovered a beauty in The Trader Club. time of year where the focus turns to the W These guys operate a sports trading hedge fund so Cheltenham Festival. you can guess at the level of research and analysis So, the Statman has oiled the cogs of that they provide. supercomputer he calls a brain and taken us through Because the horses have overrun Feb’s the 10-year stats on the major races at the Festival. newsletter, there’s no room for my proposed Andrew David persuades us that an each-way greyhound stats article, but the Patriarch has angle at the Festival is the best way to profit. The provided some interesting snippets on the dogs. guys at bettertipster.co.uk were so devastating in last And Graham Laurie tells us what’s hot and year’s Festival that I asked them “pretty please” if what’s not in the world of marketed betting systems. they could supply their insider info to WRWM And just to remind readers to send all gifts and readers for free again, and, erm, they said no! gratuities to Canonbury Towers for my birthday in But they have shared their thoughts on the March (chocolate cake particularly welcome). RyanAir Chase, where any horse whose jockey Until then, carries an oversized whip will be charged. As I have been up to my neck in football trading, I decided to Clive investigate some of the trading services out there and The Statman Presents IN THIS ISSUE: Use These Big Race The Race Trends: Trends Plus Trainer and The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle ................2 Jockey Stats for Virtually Each-Way Staking: Guaranteed Profits at Use These Each-Way Selections for The Cheltenham Festival Cheltenham Gold Cup Success .............16 he Cheltenham Festival is the pinnacle of TNational Hunt Racing, hosting the best National BetterTipster – Cheltenham Preview: Hunt Races with the best horses in the world. The races are fiercely contested and often it seems They Won’t Give You Their almost impossible to separate several horses as Selections This Year But Here’s potential winners. With this in mind, I have a little extra for you to hopefully help make Cheltenham a an Exclusive Preview .............................19 profitable Festival for you this year! Last year I focused my attention on various Graham Laurie’s System and trainer angles for the Festival; this year I’m going to Tipster Update .......................................20 be a little different, as well as trainer and jockey stats I am also going to look at some race trends for please turn over WRWM_0211.qxd 23/2/11 16:18 Page 2 the biggest races over the four days. With so many called The Gloucestershire Hurdle and used to be top quality races it really is difficult to know which split into two or three separate divisions. races to focus on for Race Trends, so please forgive During the 1950s famed Irish trainer Vincent me if I have omitted a race that has caught your eye, O’Brien managed to record 10 victories in this race but there really isn’t enough room to give you race over an eight-year period. trends for every race at the Festival, as much as I would like to. In 1974 the race became The Lloyds Bank Champion Novices’ Hurdle; the present title was I’m going to start with the race trends for those introduced in 1978 when the sponsorship moved to selected races, I am looking at ten year (technically Waterford Crystal, who remained the sponsors until eleven years, as the Festival was cancelled in 2001 1990. The current sponsors are The Stewart family; due to foot and mouth) trends here covering the last Andy Stewart (racehorse owner and businessman) ten Festival meetings. I have picked twelve races to renamed the race as The Spinal Research Supreme focus on: Novices’ Hurdle after his son Paul, suffered a spinal The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle injury in 2008. The Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase The Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Average Number of Runners: 20.5 The RSA (Royal & Sun Alliance) Chase Age: The table below shows the number of runners and winners for each age, although the race The Queen Mother Champion Chase is open to horses aged 4 years and over, we see that The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle the majority of runners fall into the age bracket of The Weatherbys Champion Bumper 5–7 year olds. As do the majority of the winners. The World Hurdle (also known as The Stayers’ Interestingly the only 8 year old to have won the Hurdle) race is also the only mare to have won the race; The Triumph Hurdle Like-a-butterfly in 2002. The Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle Age Runners Winners Strike Rate The Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase 4 11 0 0.0% The Grand Annual Handicap Chase Challenge Cup 5 79 3 3.8% 6 68 4 5.9% The Race Trends 7 22 2 9.1% 8 5 1 20.0% The Supreme 9 1 0 0.0% Novices’ Hurdle Eliminate all horses that don’t fall into the 5–7 year old age bracket? This alone would give us a he Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is a Grade 1 20% win strike rate. Tcontest open to horses aged 4 and over. The race is run on The Old Course over 2 miles 110 yards Sex: As I said above, only one mare has won this with eight obstacles to negotiate. As the name race in the last 10 years. suggests the race is for novice hurdlers, and is Sex Runners Winners Strike Rate normally the opening race for the Festival. Geldings 188 9 4.8% The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle was originally Mares 10 1 10.0% continued on page 3... It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018 All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money, Subscription Office, Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS.Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040. Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ. Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64 © Copyright What Really Wins Money 2011 2 WRWM_0211.qxd 23/2/11 16:18 Page 3 Colts 6 0 0.0% eliminate any horse that is priced at below 6/1, Fillies 1 0 0.0% however, in the size of these fields that would not be too many horses. Although only one mare has won the race, only 10 mares have competed in the last 10 years, so Last three Races Results: Now here we don’t discount a horse because it’s a mare. potentially have a trend that could be useful. Market Position: The position in the betting Last 3 Runners Winners Strike Rate throws a little light on the race. Race Results 111 12 3 25.0% Market Runners Winners Strike Rate 211 8 1 12.5% Position 212 4 1 25.0% 1 10 3 30.0% 221 3 1 33.3% 2 10 1 10.0% 121 2 1 50.0% 4 10 1 10.0% 143 2 1 50.0% 5 10 1 10.0% 311 2 1 50.0% 6 10 1 10.0% 811 1 1 100.0% 8 10 1 10.0% 112 9 0 0.0% 11 10 1 10.0% 1 7 0 0.0% 14 10 1 10.0% First Run 6 0 0.0% The Favourite has won the race 30% of the time, 122 5 0 0.0% which is what would be expected, as all Favourites 131 5 0 0.0% win 33% of all races.We would expect the winner to 114 4 0 0.0% come from the first five or six in the betting, which 511 4 0 0.0% would give us a strike rate of 60% or 70%, which can With the exception of two past winners, all other help us eliminate potentially three quarters of the field. winners have won or been placed in all of their last Starting Price: As the average Starting Price of the three races, and the majority of winners have won at Favourites for this race is just over 5/2, the table below least two of their last three outings. does show some interesting possibilities and trends. Poor performers? Starting Runners Winners Strike Rate • First-time runners. Price • Runners with less than three races run. 4/5 1 0 0.0% • Horses that haven’t won a race or placed in 5/4 1 0 0.0% their last three races. 7/4 1 1 100.0% • Horses who have not won two of their last three 2/1 1 0 0.0% races, being placed in the 3rd race. 9/4 1 0 0.0% 5/2 1 0 0.0% Trainers: There is only one trainer, N Meade, who 3/1 1 1 100.0% has won this race more than once, and as you’ll see 7/2 1 1 100.0% below both of these wins have been with P Carberry on 9/2 2 0 0.0% board.