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Feb 2011 What Really Wins Money An independent review of tipsters and betting systems Festival Special Issue!

elcome to February’s WRWM. And it’s that I think I’ve uncovered a beauty in The Trader Club. time of year where the focus turns to the W These guys operate a sports trading hedge fund so . you can guess at the level of research and analysis So, the Statman has oiled the cogs of that they provide. supercomputer he calls a brain and taken us through Because the horses have overrun Feb’s the 10-year stats on the major races at the Festival. newsletter, there’s no room for my proposed Andrew David persuades us that an each-way greyhound stats article, but the Patriarch has angle at the Festival is the best way to profit. The provided some interesting snippets on the dogs. guys at bettertipster.co.uk were so devastating in last And Graham Laurie tells us what’s hot and year’s Festival that I asked them “pretty please” if what’s not in the world of marketed betting systems. they could supply their insider info to WRWM And just to remind readers to send all gifts and readers for free again, and, erm, they said no! gratuities to Canonbury Towers for my birthday in But they have shared their thoughts on the March (chocolate cake particularly welcome). , where any horse whose jockey Until then, carries an oversized whip will be charged. As I have been up to my neck in football trading, I decided to Clive investigate some of the trading services out there and The Statman Presents IN THIS ISSUE: Use These Big Race The Race Trends: Trends Plus Trainer and The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle ...... 2 Jockey Stats for Virtually

Each-Way Staking: Guaranteed Profits at Use These Each-Way Selections for The Cheltenham Festival Success ...... 16 he Cheltenham Festival is the pinnacle of TNational Hunt Racing, hosting the best National BetterTipster – Cheltenham Preview: Hunt Races with the best horses in the world. The races are fiercely contested and often it seems They Won’t Give You Their almost impossible to separate several horses as Selections This Year But Here’s potential winners. With this in mind, I have a little extra for you to hopefully help make Cheltenham a an Exclusive Preview ...... 19 profitable Festival for you this year! Last year I focused my attention on various Graham Laurie’s System and trainer angles for the Festival; this year I’m going to Tipster Update ...... 20 be a little different, as well as trainer and jockey stats I am also going to look at some race trends for please turn over WRWM_0211.qxd 23/2/11 16:18 Page 2

the biggest races over the four days. With so many called The Gloucestershire Hurdle and used to be top quality races it really is difficult to know which split into two or three separate divisions. races to focus on for Race Trends, so please forgive During the 1950s famed Irish trainer Vincent me if I have omitted a race that has caught your eye, O’Brien managed to record 10 victories in this race but there really isn’t enough room to give you race over an eight-year period. trends for every race at the Festival, as much as I would like to. In 1974 the race became The Lloyds Bank Champion Novices’ Hurdle; the present title was I’m going to start with the race trends for those introduced in 1978 when the sponsorship moved to selected races, I am looking at ten year (technically Waterford Crystal, who remained the sponsors until eleven years, as the Festival was cancelled in 2001 1990. The current sponsors are The Stewart family; due to foot and mouth) trends here covering the last Andy Stewart (racehorse owner and businessman) ten Festival meetings. I have picked twelve races to renamed the race as The Spinal Research Supreme focus on: Novices’ Hurdle after his son Paul, suffered a spinal The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle injury in 2008. The Challenge Trophy Chase The Challenge Trophy Average Number of Runners: 20.5 The RSA (Royal & Sun Alliance) Chase Age: The table below shows the number of runners and winners for each age, although the race The Queen Mother Champion Chase is open to horses aged 4 years and over, we see that The Handicap Hurdle the majority of runners fall into the age bracket of The Weatherbys 5–7 year olds. As do the majority of the winners. The World Hurdle (also known as The Stayers’ Interestingly the only 8 year old to have won the Hurdle) race is also the only mare to have won the race; The Like-a-butterfly in 2002. The Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle Age Runners Winners Strike Rate The Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase 4 11 0 0.0% The Grand Annual Handicap Chase Challenge Cup 5 79 3 3.8% 6 68 4 5.9% The Race Trends 7 22 2 9.1% 8 5 1 20.0% The Supreme 9 1 0 0.0% Novices’ Hurdle Eliminate all horses that don’t fall into the 5–7 year old age bracket? This alone would give us a he Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is a Grade 1 20% win strike rate. Tcontest open to horses aged 4 and over. The race is run on The Old Course over 2 miles 110 yards Sex: As I said above, only one mare has won this with eight obstacles to negotiate. As the name race in the last 10 years. suggests the race is for hurdlers, and is Sex Runners Winners Strike Rate normally the opening race for the Festival. Geldings 188 9 4.8% The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle was originally Mares 10 1 10.0% continued on page 3...

It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018 All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money, Subscription Office, Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS.Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040. Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ. Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64 © Copyright What Really Wins Money 2011

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Colts 6 0 0.0% eliminate any horse that is priced at below 6/1, Fillies 1 0 0.0% however, in the size of these fields that would not be too many horses. Although only one mare has won the race, only 10 mares have competed in the last 10 years, so Last three Races Results: Now here we don’t discount a horse because it’s a mare. potentially have a trend that could be useful. Market Position: The position in the betting Last 3 Runners Winners Strike Rate throws a little light on the race. Race Results 111 12 3 25.0% Market Runners Winners Strike Rate 211 8 1 12.5% Position 212 4 1 25.0% 1 10 3 30.0% 221 3 1 33.3% 2 10 1 10.0% 121 2 1 50.0% 4 10 1 10.0% 143 2 1 50.0% 5 10 1 10.0% 311 2 1 50.0% 6 10 1 10.0% 811 1 1 100.0% 8 10 1 10.0% 112 9 0 0.0% 11 10 1 10.0% 1 7 0 0.0% 14 10 1 10.0% First Run 6 0 0.0% The Favourite has won the race 30% of the time, 122 5 0 0.0% which is what would be expected, as all Favourites 131 5 0 0.0% win 33% of all races.We would expect the winner to 114 4 0 0.0% come from the first five or six in the betting, which 511 4 0 0.0% would give us a strike rate of 60% or 70%, which can With the exception of two past winners, all other help us eliminate potentially three quarters of the field. winners have won or been placed in all of their last Starting Price: As the average Starting Price of the three races, and the majority of winners have won at Favourites for this race is just over 5/2, the table below least two of their last three outings. does show some interesting possibilities and trends. Poor performers? Starting Runners Winners Strike Rate • First-time runners. Price • Runners with less than three races run. 4/5 1 0 0.0% • Horses that haven’t won a race or placed in 5/4 1 0 0.0% their last three races. 7/4 1 1 100.0% • Horses who have not won two of their last three 2/1 1 0 0.0% races, being placed in the 3rd race. 9/4 1 0 0.0% 5/2 1 0 0.0% Trainers: There is only one trainer, N Meade, who 3/1 1 1 100.0% has won this race more than once, and as you’ll see 7/2 1 1 100.0% below both of these wins have been with P Carberry on 9/2 2 0 0.0% board. 5/1 1 0 0.0% Trainer Runners Winners Strike Rate 6/1 3 1 33.3% Meade N 11 2 18.2% 17/2 3 1 33.3% Mullins W P 11 1 9.1% 12/1 10 2 20.0% Nicholls P 11 1 9.1% 14/1 12 1 8.3% Hobbs P 7 1 14.3% 20/1 16 1 6.3% Howard Johnson J 5 1 20.0% 40/1 8 1 12.5% O’Grady E 5 1 20.0% Like-a-butterfly who not only being the only Roche C 2 1 50.0% mare to win the race, also bucks the trend on Murphy C 1 1 100.0% Starting Prices being the shortest priced winner at Harty E P 1 1 100.0% 7/4. With this exception it would seem prudent to Henderson N 14 0 0.0% please turn over 3 WRWM_0211.qxd 23/2/11 16:18 Page 4

Knight H 6 0 0.0% Cotswold Chase, and the name was changed in 1969 Twiston-Davies N 5 0 0.0% as a tribute to three times Gold Cup winner Arkle. King A 4 0 0.0% Prior to 1980 this race was run on the second day of Pipe D 4 0 0.0% the Festival instead of its current slot as the second Weld D 3 0 0.0% race on the opening day. The first sponsors of The Arkle Chase were Waterford Crystal who remained the sponsors until 1991. Guinness sponsored the race Jockeys: from 1994 until 1999, from when it was sponsored by Jockey Runners Winners Strike Rate the current sponsors The Irish Independent Carberry P 8 2 25.0% newspaper. Johnson R 9 1 11.1% Average Number of Runners: 13.9 Walsh R 9 1 11.1% Thornton R 6 1 16.7% Age: There is a definite race trend here; Lee G 4 1 25.0% Age Runners Winners Strike Rate Swan C F 2 1 50.0% 5 23 2 8.7% Williamson N 2 1 50.0% 6 22 1 4.5% Cash B M 1 1 100.0% 7 44 5 11.4% Condon D J 1 1 100.0% 8 25 2 8.0% McCoy A P 10 0 0.0% 9 6 0 0.0% Murphy T 7 0 0.0% 10 1 0 0.0% Geraghty B J 7 0 0.0% 12 1 0 0.0% O’Dwyer C 7 0 0.0% Dobbin A 6 0 0.0% Half of all winners of The Arkle have been 7 year olds, and no horse over the age of 8 has won this Some of the top jockeys have been unable to ride race in the past 10 years. Focus our attention on the a winner in this race, most notably A P McCoy, who 7 year olds in this race, but don’t discount the although having 10 attempts at the race has yet to younger horses or the 8 year olds. ride a winner. Sex: In the past 10 years very few mares have Jockey/Trainer Combinations: competed in this race, and no mare has recorded a win. Jockey Trainer Runners Winners Strike Rate Sex Runners Winners Strike Rate Carberry P Meade N 8 2 25.0% Geldings 132 10 7.6% Johnson R Hobbs P 6 1 16.7% Mares 4 0 0.0% Walsh R Nicholls P 5 1 20.0% Colts 2 0 0.0% Lee G Howard Johnson J 2 1 50.0% Fillies 1 0 0.0% Thornton R Harty E P 1 1 100.0% Focusing on geldings would be prudent, although Cash B M Murphy C 1 1 100.0% eliminating mares won’t potentially reduce the field Condon D J Mullins W P 1 1 100.0% greatly. Williamson N O’Grady E 1 1 100.0% Swan C F Roche C 1 1 100.0% Market Position: The Market can definitely give Culloty J Knight H 4 0 0.0% us a pointer to the potential winner in this race, with all 10 winners from the last 10 years being in the top N Meade/P Carberry may well be worth a five of the Market. consideration if they have a runner. Market Runners Winners Strike Rate The Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Position 1 10 1 10.0% The Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase is a Grade 1 2 10 3 30.0% Chase open to novice chasers of 5 years and older. 3 10 1 10.0% The race is run over 2 miles on The Old Course 4 10 3 30.0% covering 12 fences. 5 10 2 20.0% The Arkle Challenge Chase was originally The 6 10 0 0.0%

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7 10 0 0.0% 121 5 0 0.0% 8 10 0 0.0% 114 3 0 0.0% 9 10 0 0.0% 411 3 0 0.0% P11 2 0 0.0% Eliminating all runners that are 6th and over in the U23 2 0 0.0% Market will help to eliminate well over half of the 141 2 0 0.0% field. 221 2 0 0.0% Starting Price: The average winning Starting 321 2 0 0.0% Price is just over 6/1 and the average Starting Price 512 2 0 0.0% of the Favourites is just over 5/2. Trainers: Two trainers stand out as having Starting Runners Winners Strike Rate decent stats for this race, A King and J Howard Price Johnson, (as does M Pipe, although he has now 5/4 1 1 100.0% retired). Although P Nicholls has recorded a win in 7/4 2 0 0.0% this race it has taken him 16 runners to do it. 5/2 3 0 0.0% Trainer Runners Winners Strike Rate 11/4 1 0 0.0% Pipe M 7 2 28.6% 10/3 1 0 0.0% King A 4 2 50.0% 7/2 2 1 50.0% Nicholls P 16 1 6.3% 4/1 4 0 0.0% Henderson N 7 1 14.3% 9/2 3 0 0.0% Harrington J 5 1 20.0% 5/1 2 0 0.0% Howard Johnson J 4 1 25.0% 11/2 1 1 100.0% Cooper T 1 1 100.0% 6/1 4 2 50.0% De Bromhead H 1 1 100.0% 7/1 5 1 20.0% Mullins W P 7 0 0.0% 15/2 3 1 33.3% Murphy F 5 0 0.0% 8/1 7 2 28.6% Knight H 4 0 0.0% 17/2 3 0 0.0% Meade N 4 0 0.0% 9/1 4 1 25.0% Hobbs P 4 0 0.0% 10/1 10 0 0.0% O’Grady E 4 0 0.0% The short-priced winner was in 2003; There are also several trainers that have been incidentally Azertyuiop was also the only favourite unable to win this race, must notably W P Mullins to win the race in the past 10 years. The stats show and F Murphy. that we need to focus on horses in the price bracket of 5/1–10/1, which is ideal for the each-way punter. Jockeys: Again there are two jockeys that have good records in this race, B J Geraghty and R Last 3 Races Results: The form doesn’t seem as Thornton. important as in The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, that said, six of last 10 winners had scored two wins out Jockey Runners Winners Strike Rate of their last three races, and five past winners scored Geraghty B J 8 2 25.0% a win in the race prior to The Arkle Chase. Thornton R 5 2 40.0% Walsh R 10 1 10.0% Last 3 Runners Winners Strike Rate McCo A P 9 1 11.1% Race Results Fitzgerald M 6 1 16.7% 111 20 2 10.0% Murphy T 5 1 20.0% 211 11 2 18.2% O’Regan D F 2 1 50.0% 112 7 1 14.3% Lynch A E 1 1 100.0% 213 4 1 25.0% Johnson R 6 0 0.0% 222 3 1 33.3% Brennan P J5 0 0.0% 151 1 1 100.0% Carberry P 5 0 0.0% 25 1 1 100.0% 11F 1 1 100.0% has yet to score a win in this please turn over 5 WRWM_0211.qxd 23/2/11 16:18 Page 6

race even with six attempts. 7 26 3 11.5% 8 22 3 13.6% Jockey/Trainer Combinations: 9 10 1 10.0% The combination of R Thornton and A King 10 5 0 0.0% having won twice from four attempts is a pretty 11 4 0 0.0% good record, equally R Johnson and P Hobbs failing 12 3 0 0.0% to win from their four attempts is pretty bad! Focusing on 7 and 8 year olds will give a win strike Jockey Trainer Runners Winners Strike rate of 25.1% and eliminate two thirds of the field. Rate Thornton R King A 4 2 50.0% Sex: No mares have won this race in the past 10 Walsh R Nicholls P 6 1 16.7% years, that said, only 7 mares/fillies have competed, Fitzgerald M Henderson N 5 1 20.0% so again there isn’t much to work on here. McCoy A P Pipe M 3 1 33.3% Sex Runners Winners Strike Rate Murphy T Pipe M 3 1 33.3% Geldings 138 10 7.2% Geraghty B J Harrington J 2 1 50.0% Mares 6 0 0.0% O’Regan D F Howard Johnson J 2 1 50.0% Colts 9 0 0.0% Geraghty B J Cooper T 1 1 00.0% Fillies 1 0 0.0% Lynch A E De Bromhead H 1 1 00.0% Johnson R Hobbs P 4 0 0.0% Market Position: The order in the betting does McNamara A J O’Grady E 3 0 0.0% not show any trends at all! Walsh R Mullins W P 3 0 0.0% Market Runners Winners Strike Rate Fehily N Mann C 3 0 0.0% Position Lee G Murphy F 3 0 0.0% 1 10 2 20.0% 2 10 2 20.0% The Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 3 10 0 0.0% The Champion Hurdle is a Grade 1 race for 4 10 1 10.0% horses 4 years old and over. The race is run on The 5 10 0 0.0% Old Course over a distance of 2 miles and 110 yards 6 10 0 0.0% with eight hurdles to negotiate. As the name denotes, 7 10 2 20.0% The Champion Hurdle is the most prestigious hurdle 8 10 1 10.0% race in the National Hunt Calendar. 9 10 0 0.0% 10 10 2 20.0% The Champion Hurdle has been run since 1927, and has only been abandoned three times, once for frost and Winners are evenly distributed throughout the twice during WWII. This race has had several triple Market. winners over the years; the first being Hatton’s Grace, Starting Price: The average winning Starting the second was Sir Ken in the 1950s, the third was Price for The Champion Hurdle is 11/1 and the in the late 1960s, the fourth being See You average Starting Price of the Favourite is 2/1! Then in the 1980s and more recently Istabraq in the late The table of Starting Prices is too large to show, 1990s. The Champion Hurdle is the final leg of ‘The the winners have ranged in price from 8/15 up to Road to Cheltenham’ series of high class hurdles races, 33/1. So there really isn’t any trend at all based sponsored by Stan James. around the Market or Starting Prices. Average Number of Runners: 15.4 Last Three Races Results: Of the last 10 runnings Age: There is a definite race trend based on age; of this race eight of the winners had scored a win on 7 and 8 year olds have won 60% of the runnings in their last outing, the two that didn’t score a win came the last 10 years, with no winner being over 9 years 2nd and 3rd. Looking at the past form of the winners it of age. appears that going back any further than one race is Age Runners Winners Strike Rate irrelevant, so eliminating any horse that has not won its 5 23 1 4.3% last race should narrow down the field and still leave us 6 35 2 5.7% with the winner.

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Last 3 Runners Winners Strike Rate Mullins W P 6 0 0.0% Races Results Pipe D 4 0 0.0% 111 14 2 14.3% Nicholls P 4 0 0.0% 331 3 2 66.7% Again there are some big trainers that despite 311 2 1 50.0% repeated attempts to win the race just seem to fail, 321 2 1 50.0% N Meade and J J O’Neill being the most notable. 441 2 1 50.0% 1F3 1 1 100.0% Jockeys: A P McCoy and C O’Dwyer have both 722 1 1 100.0% recorded two wins in this race and are jockeys to 531 1 1 100.0% look out for, although both of C O’Dwyer’s rides 6 0 0.0% were Hardy Eustace. McCoy was last year’s winner. 112 4 0 0.0% Jockey Runners Winners Strike Rate 421 4 0 0.0% McCoy A P 10 2 20.0% 113 3 0 0.0% O’Dwyer C 6 2 33.3% 221 3 0 0.0% Geraghty B J 8 1 12.5% As I said, The Champion Hurdle is the final leg Johnson R 7 1 14.3% of ‘The Road to Cheltenham’ series of races and Thornton R 5 1 20.0% looking at the winners who have competed in the Swan C F 3 1 33.3% other legs of this series, The Fighting Fifth Hurdle, Carberry P A 3 1 33.3% The and The Champion Hurdle Gallagher D 2 1 50.0% Trial, no winner in the past 10 years has scored a Walsh R 9 0 0.0% win in any of these races in the same year that they Murphy T 8 0 0.0% competed in the Champion Hurdle. Carberry P 8 0 0.0% Casey D J 5 0 0.0% The winners of The Triumph Hurdle offer good Dobbin A 4 0 0.0% pointers to potential winners of The Champion Hurdle. The Triumph Hurdle is a juvenile Hurdlers Again there are some jockeys to avoid: R Walsh, race, and shows early world-class Hurdling T Murphy, and P Carberry. potential. The most recent winners of The Champion Jockey/Trainer Combinations: The O’Dwyer – Hurdle that have also raced in The Triumph Hurdle Hughes partnership wins were with Hardy Eustace. are who won The Triumph Hurdle in 2007 Jockey Trainer Runners Winners Strike and then The Champion Hurdle in 2008, and Rate who came 4th in The Triumph Hurdle in 2007 and O’Dwyer C Hughes D T 4 2 50.0% went on to win The Champion Hurdle in 2009. Johnson R Hobbs P 5 1 20.0% Trainers: Again two trainers have won this race Thornton R King A 4 1 25.0% more than once, both of D T Hughes wins have been Geraghty B J Henderson N 3 1 33.3% with Hardy Eustace in 2004 and 2005, N McCoy A P Henderson N 2 1 50.0% Henderson’s two wins have been in 2009 and 2010 Carberry P A Carr J G 2 1 50.0% with Punjabi and respectively. Swan C F O’Brien A P 2 1 50.0% Gallagher D Fanshawe J 1 1 100.0% Trainer Runners Winners Strike Rate McCoy A P Murphy C 1 1 100.0% Henderson N 16 2 12.5% Carberry P Meade N 5 0 0.0% Hughes D T 5 2 40.0% Walsh R Nicholls P 4 0 0.0% Hobbs P 6 1 16.7% King A 4 1 25.0% The bottom two combinations in the above table Murphy C 4 1 25.0% would be worth avoiding. O’Brien A P 3 1 33.3% Carr J G 2 1 50.0% The RSA (Royal & Sun Alliance) Chase Fanshawe J 2 1 50.0% The RSA Chase is a Grade 1 race open to novice Meade N 8 0 0.0% Chasers, 5 years and older. It is run on The Old Course O’Neill J J 7 0 0.0% and covers 3 miles 110 yards with 19 fences. please turn over 7 WRWM_0211.qxd 23/2/11 16:18 Page 8

The RSA Chase was originally called The 12 6 0 0.0% Broadway Novices’ Chase until the mid 1964 when 13 4 0 0.0% The Tote took sponsorship of the race, calling it The 14 4 0 0.0% Totalisator Champion Novices’ Chase until 1973, 15 4 1 25.0% since then it has been sponsored by Royal & Sun Three of the last four winners have been the Alliance Insurance Group. Favourite or second Favourite. Several winners of this race have subsequently Starting Price: The average winning Starting gone on to victory in The Cheltenham Gold Cup, Price is just over 10/1 and the average Starting Price most recently Denman who won The RSA Chase in of the Favourite is just under 3/1. As we can see 2007 and then went on to win The Gold Cup in 2008. from the table below, the Starting Price of the Average Number of Runners: 13.6 winners cover a wide range of prices. Age: We have a very definite age trend in this Starting Price Runners Winners Strike Rate race, as 80% of winners are 7 year olds. 6/5 1 1 100.0% Age Runners Winners Strike Rate 9/4 2 1 50.0% 5 6 1 16.7% 11/4 1 0 0.0% 6 18 0 0.0% 4/1 3 1 33.3% 7 50 8 16.0% 9/2 7 1 14.3% 8 21 1 4.8% 5/1 3 1 33.3% 9 13 0 0.0% 11/2 2 0 0.0% 10 1 0 0.0% 6/1 4 0 0.0% 11 1 0 0.0% 13/2 3 0 0.0% 7/1 5 0 0.0% Discounting all horses that are NOT 7 years of 15/2 2 1 50.0% age, will remove almost two thirds of the field and 8/1 3 0 0.0% still leave us with an 80% chance of having the 9/1 5 0 0.0% winner. 10/1 6 1 16.7% Sex: Again, no mares have won this race in the 14/1 5 1 20.0% past 10 years. 25/1 6 1 16.7% 33/1 11 1 9.1% Sex Runners Winners Strike Rate Geldings 125 10 8.0% So the actual Starting Price doesn’t give us any Mares 7 0 0.0% additional pointers. Colts 4 0 0.0% Last 3 Race Results: The form of the last three Market Position: Horses that head the Market races prior to The RSA Chase show that unexposed seem to do well in this race; the Market does give us or unraced horses do not win this race, so these can a pointer to the potential winner. be ignored straight away. Market Runners Winners Strike Rate Last 3 Runners Winners Strike Rate Position Race Results 1 10 2 20.0% 211 10 1 10.0% 2 10 2 20.0% 111 9 1 11.1% 3 10 0 0.0% 122 4 1 25.0% 4 10 2 20.0% 311 4 1 25.0% 5 10 1 10.0% 131 3 1 33.3% 6 10 0 0.0% 212 2 1 50.0% 7 10 0 0.0% 231 2 1 50.0% 8 10 1 10.0% 151 2 1 50.0% 9 10 0 0.0% 1F2 1 1 100.0% 10 7 1 14.3% 332 1 1 100.0% 11 6 0 0.0% 13 0 0.0%

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113 4 0 0.0% Jockey Trainer Runners Winners Strike 11F 4 0 0.0% Rate Walsh R Mullins W P 7 1 14.3% 1F1 4 0 0.0% Fitzgerald M Henderson N 4 1 25.0% Apart from unraced horses the past three race Johnson R Hobbs P 3 1 33.3% results do not really give out any pointers in this Culloty J Knight H 3 1 33.3% race, other than all winners have won or come 2nd McCoy A P O’Neill J J 3 1 33.3% in their last race. Walsh R Nicholls P 2 1 50.0% Trainers: Once again W P Mullins and P Nicholls Russell D N Byrnes C 2 1 50.0% have both recorded two wins each of this race in the Garritty R Beaumont P 1 1 100.0% past 10 years, and would be trainers to keep an eye on. Casey D J Mullins W P 1 1 100.0% Geraghty B J Nicholls P 1 1 100.0% Trainer Runners Winners Strike Rate Thomas S Nicholls P 4 0 0.0% Mullins W P 9 2 22.2% Tizzard J Tizzard C 4 0 0.0% Nicholls P 9 2 22.2% Brennan P J Twiston-Davies N 4 0 0.0% Henderson N 8 1 12.5% Hobbs P 5 1 20.0% The Queen Mother Champion Chase Knight H 5 1 20.0% O’Neill J J 4 1 25.0% The Queen Mother Champion Chase is a Grade 1 Byrnes C 2 1 50.0% race, open to horses aged 5 years and older. The race Beaumont P 1 1 100.0% is run on The Old Course and covers 2 miles and has Twiston-Davies N 7 0 0.0% 12 fences. The Queen Mother Chase is the feature Howard Johnson J6 0 0.0% race of day two of the Festival. Hughes D T 4 0 0.0% This race was first run in 1959 under the name of Murphy F 4 0 0.0% The National Hunt Two-Mile Champion Chase. It Mann C 4 0 0.0% was given its current title in 1980, the year of The Also N Twiston-Davies and J Howard Johnson Queen Mother’s 80th birthday, in recognition of her are two trainers to avoid. support of . This race remained unsponsored until 2007. Jockeys: The only jockey to have won this race twice is R Walsh, who has won for both P Nicholls and Average Number of Runners: 11.5 W P Mullins in the last four years; one to look out for. Age: Age does seem to give us a pointer in this Jockeys Runners Winners Strike Rate race, with the majority, 60%, of winners being 8 or 9 Walsh R 10 2 20.0% years old, with the exception of who McCoy A P 10 1 10.0% won in 2003, all other winners have been 9 or younger. Geraghty B J 7 1 14.3% Age Runners Winners Strike Rate Fitzgerald M 5 1 20.0% 5 1 1 100.0% Johnson R 5 1 20.0% 6 7 1 14.3% Russell D N 4 1 25.0% 7 7 1 14.3% Casey D J 3 1 33.3% 8 23 3 13.0% Culloty J 3 1 33.3% 9 25 3 12.0% Garrity R 1 1 100.0% 10 16 0 0.0% Murphy T 8 0 0.0% 11 9 1 11.1% Tizzard J 6 0 0.0% 12 1 0 0.0% Brennan P J 6 0 0.0% So concentrating on 8 and 9 year olds in this race Dobbin A 5 0 0.0% would be a good starting point. Fehily N 4 0 0.0% Sex: All but one contender in this race have been Jockey/Trainer Combinations: Although both R geldings, so no trend here. Walsh and W P Mullins have both been victorious in this race twice in the past 10 years, it’s taken seven Market Position: This is a race for Favourites attempts for their combined powers to win. (and second Favourites); however the four winners please turn over 9 WRWM_0211.qxd 23/2/11 16:18 Page 10

that were not Favourite or Second Favourite have Last 3 Runners Winners Strike Rate been winners in the last five years. Race Results U11 2 2 100.0% Market Runners Winners Strike Rate 111 5 1 20.0% Position 211 4 1 25.0% 1 11 4 36.4% 221 3 1 33.3% 2 11 2 18.2% 133 2 1 50.0% 3 11 0 0.0% 124 1 1 100.0% 4 11 1 9.1% 431 1 1 100.0% 5 11 2 18.2% 21U 1 1 100.0% 6 11 0 0.0% 441 1 1 100.0% 7 11 1 9.1% 18 0 0.0% 8 11 0 0.0% 121 4 0 0.0% Although the 10 year trend favours the Market 112 3 0 0.0% Leaders, a cautionary note, that in the last five years 212 3 0 0.0% only one Favourite has managed to win. The trend here is to eliminate any horse that has Starting Price: The average winning Starting finished 5th or worse in any of its last three races, Price is 9/2 and the average price of the Favourite is and any horse that hasn’t won in the race prior to this 6/5, so although the Market Position is a good pointer, race. This also includes eliminating unraced horses. short-priced Favourites tend to struggle to win. If this Trainers: Half of the winners in the past 10 years year’s race produces a short-priced Favourite it may have come from one of just two yards; P Nicholls be worth Laying it on the exchanges. and J Harrington. However, P Nicholls has had 21 Starting Runners Winners Strike Rate runners to get his three wins, two of which were in Price the last three years. Both of J Harrington’s winners < Evens 4 1 25.0% where Moscow Flyer winning in 2003 and 2005, 11/10 1 0 0.0% also two of P Nicholls winners were Master Minded. 6/4 1 1 100.0% Trainer Runners Winners Strike Rate 7/4 2 2 100.0% Nicholls P 21 3 14.3% 15/8 1 1 100.0% Harrington J 5 2 40.0% 2/1 2 0 0.0% Hobbs P 5 1 20.0% 5/2 1 0 0.0% Murphy J J 5 1 20.0% 3/1 1 1 100.0% King A 4 1 25.0% 7/2 3 1 33.3% Knight H 3 1 33.3% 5/1 7 1 14.3% Murphy C 2 1 50.0% 10/1 4 1 25.0% Pipe D 5 0 0.0% 16/1 8 1 12.5% Moore A L T 4 0 0.0% All but two winners have been at prices of 5/1 Howard Johnson J4 0 0.0% or shorter, so eliminating all runners priced at 6/1 Hughes D T 4 0 0.0% or above should prove profitable (avoiding horses This is a race where past winners come back to under 6/4). win again, so look out for previous winners of this Last three Race Results: The last three races race. A trainer to avoid is D Pipe, his father Martin run prior to The Queen Mother Chase can give us Pipe also failed to register a win in this race in the a pointer to a trend here, of the last 10 winners period under examination. seven have won their last outing, and no winner has Jockeys: This race has been dominated by R been placed beyond 4th (with the exception of the Walsh and B J Geraghty between them winning six two horses that unseated their rider) in their last times in the past eight years! It would seem as three races. though looking elsewhere would be pointless!

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Jockey Runners Winners Strike Rate Drever in 2008 when he won the race for the third Walsh R 10 3 30.0% time. In fact this seems to be race for repeat winners; Geraghty B J 6 3 50.0% Inglis Drever has won three times in 2004, 2007 and Johnson R 8 1 12.5% 2008, Baracouda has won twice in 2002 and 2003 McCoy A P 8 1 12.5% and Big Buck’s has also won twice in 2009 and Thornton R 5 1 20.0% 2010. Keeping an eye out for past winners that are McNamara A J 2 1 50.0% under 9 years of age would be wise. Murphy T 7 0 0.0% Age Runners Winners Strike Rate Carberry P 6 0 0.0% 5 8 0 0.0% Brennan P J 4 0 0.0% 6 33 4 12.1% Tizzard J 4 0 0.0% 7 36 3 8.3% Jockey/Trainer Combinations: The Jockey – 8 26 2 7.7% Trainer combinations are also dominated by the same 9 16 1 6.3% two jockeys and trainers. It is worth noting that P 10 13 0 0.0% Nicholls has only ever won this race when R Walsh is 11 6 0 0.0% on board, he’s tried with other jockeys but to no avail. 13 1 0 0.0% Jockey Trainer Runners Winners Strike Sex: All winners of this race have been geldings, Rate although only seven Mares have competed in this Walsh R Nicholls P 9 3 33.3% race in the last 10 years. Geraghty B J Harrington J 4 2 50.0% Johnson R Hobbs P 5 1 20.0% Age Runners Winners Strike Rate Thornton R King A 3 1 33.3% Geldings 129 10 7.8% McCoy A P Knight H 2 1 50.0% Mares 7 0 0.0% Mcnamara A J Murphy J J 2 1 50.0% Colts 3 0 0.0% Geraghty B J Murphy C 1 1 100.0% Market Position: The Market Position gives us a Tizzard J Nicholls P 4 0 0.0% very definite trend as all winners have come from the Power R M Murphy J J 3 0 0.0% first four horses in the Betting Market, so eliminate Thomas S Nicholls P 3 0 0.0% any horse that is 5 or above in the Market. Murphy T Pipe D 3 0 0.0% Carberry P Hughes D T 3 0 0.0% Market Runners Winners Strike Rate Position The World Hurdle (also known as The 1 10 3 30.0% Stayers’ Hurdle) 2 10 2 20.0% 3 10 3 30.0% The World Hurdle is a Grade 1 race that is open 4 10 2 20.0% to horses aged 4 years and older. The race is run on 5 10 0 0.0% The New Course and covers a distance of 3 miles 6 10 0 0.0% with 12 hurdles to overcome. Starting Price: The average winning Starting This race was originally known as The Spa Hurdle Price is 4/1 and the average Starting Price of the and in 1972 it become known as The Stayers’ Hurdle. Favourite is 7/4, this we would expect as the Market Initially the race was sponsored by Lloyds Bank and leaders show the winning trend. then from 1978 to 1990 Waterford Crystal sponsored the race, Bonus Print were also sponsors between Market Runners Winners Strike Rate 1991 and 2004. In 2005 Ladbrokes took over Position sponsorship and changed the name to The World 5/7 1 0 0.0% Hurdle. This race was originally contested on The Old 5/6 1 1 100.0% Course where it was run over 3 miles and 1 furlong. 10/11 1 0 0.0% 6/5 1 0 0.0% Average Number of Runners: 13.9 11/8 1 1 100.0% Age: This is definitely a race for 6, 7 and 8 year 13/8 1 1 100.0% olds, the only 9 year old to win this race was Inglis 2/1 2 0 0.0% please turn over 11 WRWM_0211.qxd 23/2/11 16:18 Page 12

9/4 2 1 50.0% Mullins W P 7 0 0.0% 9/2 2 1 50.0% Twiston-Davies N 5 0 0.0% 5/1 3 2 66.7% Williams V 4 0 0.0% 11/2 1 1 100.0% Daly H D 4 0 0.0% 6/1 1 1 100.0% Hobbs P 4 0 0.0% 8/1 6 1 16.7% Trainers to avoid this time are W P Mullins and N Although the Market leaders are winning this Twiston-Davies. race, the above table shows us that short priced Jockeys: The jockeys are not so clear cut; R horses do not do that well, in fact we want to be Walsh and T Doumen have both won the race twice concentrating our attention to those horses that are in the past 10 years. 11/8 and above, as well as being in the first four in the Betting Market. Jockeys Runners Winners Strike Rate Walsh R 8 2 25.0% Last 3 Race Results: The results of the horses Doumen T 3 2 66.7% last three races gives us another trend that we can Geraghty B J 8 1 12.5% use. With the exception of the two horses, one of Thornton R 7 1 14.3% which fell the other unseated it rider, all the other Fitzgerald M 5 1 20.0% horses have won or come 2nd in all of their previous Brennan P J 4 1 25.0% three races (there is one winner that scored a 3rd Lee G 3 1 33.3% place three races ago). O’Regan D F 3 1 33.3% Last 3 Runners Winners Strike Rate McCoy A P 8 0 0.0% Race Results Murphy T 6 0 0.0% 111 7 2 28.6% Johnson R 5 0 0.0% 211 7 2 28.6% Carberry P 5 0 0.0% 112 4 2 50.0% Once more this is a race that has eluded A P 212 4 1 25.0% McCoy, also T Murphy and R Johnson are jockeys F12 1 1 100.0% to avoid. 311 1 1 100.0% U11 1 1 100.0% Jockey – Trainer Combinations: The pairing of 121 4 0 0.0% Walsh and Nicholls as well as Doumen and Doumen 122 4 0 0.0% have both had two winners each out of three runs, 241 3 0 0.0% admittedly both wins for each combination have been 113 3 0 0.0% on the same horses, Big Buck’s and Baracouda 141 2 0 0.0% respectively. What we are looking for are horses that have two Jockey Trainer Runners Winners Strike Rate or three wins in their last three races and for the race Doumen T Doumen F 3 2 66.7% that they didn’t win a 2nd (or a faller or unseated Walsh R Nicholls P 3 2 66.7% rider or bought down). Thornton R King A 7 1 14.3% Trainers: In recent years this race has been Fitzgerald M Henderson N 3 1 33.3% dominated by three trainers who have won the race O’Regan D F Howard Johnson J3 1 33.3% 70% of the time, these trainers must be considered if Lee G Howard Johnson J2 1 50.0% they have runners this year. Geraghty B J O’Neill J J 2 1 50.0% Trainer Runners Winners Strike Rate Brennan P J Howard Johnson J 1 1 100.0% Howard Johnson J6 3 50.0% Johnson R Daly H D 3 0 0.0% Doumen F 10 2 20.0% Llewellyn C Twiston-Davies N 3 0 0.0% Nicholls P 4 2 50.0% King A 11 1 9.1% The Triumph Hurdle O’Neill J J 11 1 9.1% The Triumph Hurdle is a Grade 1 race, run on Henderson N 7 1 14.3% The New Course. This race is open to 4 year old

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novice hurdlers; the race is 2 miles and 1 furlong in Starting Price: The average winning Starting length and covers eight hurdles. Price is just under 10/1 and the average price of the Favourite is just under 5/1. This reflects the position This race was established in 1939 and was in Market of the winners. originally run at Hurst Park in Surrey. When Hurst Park was sold for housing in 1962; it was transferred Starting Price Runners Winners Strike Rate to Cheltenham’s April meeting; in 1968 The Triumph Evens 1 0 0.0% Hurdle moved to The Cheltenham Festival. During 7/2 4 1 25.0% the early history of this race it was dominated by 4/1 2 0 0.0% French Trained horses, in fact six of the first seven 9/2 1 0 0.0% winners were French-based. This race is also 5/1 4 1 25.0% accounts for 1 of 20 hurdles wins by flat jockey 11/2 3 2 66.7% Lester Piggott who won this race in 1954. 6/1 2 1 50.0% Average Number of Runners: 22 7/1 7 1 14.3% 8/1 7 0 0.0% Sex: Geldings once again dominate this race, but 9/1 6 1 16.7% don’t discount the mares, although only 15 runners 16/1 16 1 6.3% (including Fillies) there has been one winner, Snow 20/1 11 2 18.2% Drop in 2000. That said, for the past nine years the winners have all been geldings. The actual Starting Prices of the winners don’t offer us much help; I would say that we could Sex Runners Winners Strike Rate eliminate any horse above 9/1. In the past four years Geldings 165 8 4.8% the winners have been in the 5/1–6/1 price bracket. Colts 40 1 2.5% Mares 10 1 10.0% Last 3 Race Results: It would seem prudent here Fillies 5 0 0.0% to focus on those horses that have won or come 2nd in their last race, horses that have not had three past Market Position: Seven of the last 10 winners races need to have won every race that they have have been in the first four of the Betting Market, the competed in. other three winners were outsiders, interestingly though, all three outsiders won between 2002–2004, Last 3 Runners Winners Strike Rate in three consecutive years. Race Results 111 14 2 14.3% Market Runners Winners Strike Rate 1 6 1 16.7% Position 11 4 1 25.0% 1 10 2 20.0% 212 4 1 25.0% 2 10 0 0.0% 331 1 1 100.0% 3 10 4 40.0% 41 1 1 100.0% 4 10 1 10.0% 811 1 1 100.0% 5 10 0 0.0% 712 1 1 100.0% 6 10 0 0.0% B41 1 1 100.0% 7 10 0 0.0% 112 12 0 0.0% 8 10 0 0.0% 211 10 0 0.0% 9 10 0 0.0% 131 7 0 0.0% 10 10 0 0.0% 5 0 0.0% 11 10 1 10.0% 12 10 2 20.0% It does appear that only the last race form is worth considering for runners in this race, as going In this race we have to focus on the first four in the back to the second and third last races does throw up Betting Market; for the last six years the winner has some anomalies. come from the top four. For the past four years the winner has been the third Favourite, although this Trainers: The top three trainers here, Henderson, might be narrowing things down a little too much, but King and Hobbs have dominated this race for the still worth noting. past seven years, other than P Nicholls’ Celestial please turn over 13 WRWM_0211.qxd 23/2/11 16:18 Page 14

Halo in 2008; these three have won every other Fehily N Mann C 4 0 0.0% running of the race for seven years! Carberry P Meade N 4 0 0.0% Trainer Runners Winners Strike Rate As the top three combinations are also the top Henderson N 14 2 14.3% trainers and top jockeys for the race, it may be worth King A 11 2 18.2% using this data to eliminate jockey/trainer Hobbs P 6 2 33.3% Combinations, like R Walsh/W P Mullins. Mullins W P 10 1 10.0% Nicholls P 10 1 10.0% The Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Doumen F 7 1 14.3% The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the most prestigious O’Neill J J 5 1 20.0% of all National Hunt Races, and is the most valuable Williams V 6 0 0.0% non-handicap chase is the UK. The race is a Grade 1 Meade N 6 0 0.0% Chase, open to horses 5 years and older; it is run on Moore G L 5 0 0.0% The New Course and covers 3 miles 2 furlongs and We would be foolish to discount any runner from 110 yards, incorporating 22 fences. Henderson, King or Hobbs given their record in this The Gold Cup was first run in 1819 as a 3 mile flat race over recent years. race on Cleeve Hill (which overlooks the present Jockeys: B J Geraghty has been on the winning Cheltenham Track). In 1924 the race was switched to a horse for the past two years, and seems to have an jumps race, and was run on what is now known as The excellent record in this race; R Johnson and R Old Course. In the early years the race was Thornton also have decent records in this race, and overshadowed by The National Hunt Chase. In 1931 must be worth keeping an eye on. and 1937 The Gold Cup was abandoned (because of Jockey Runners Winners Strike Rate frost and flooding respectively), however the five Geraghty B J 9 3 33.3% years in between (1932–1936) the race was won each Johnson R 8 2 25.0% year by Golden Miller who also won The Grand Thornton R 8 2 25.0% National in 1934, Golden Miller is the most successful Walsh R 10 1 10.0% horse in the history of the race. Then in 1959 the race Swan C F 3 1 33.3% was moved to The New Course, and in the mid 1960s Doumen T 3 1 33.3% the race was won three times, 1964, 1965, 1966, by McCoy A P 9 0 0.0% Arkle, Arkle’s supremacy within the event was such Carberry P 7 0 0.0% that in 1966 he went off at 1/10, the shortest priced Scudamore T 7 0 0.0% winner ever of The Gold Cup. Casey D J 6 0 0.0% The Gold Cup is unusual in as much that the cup Murphy T 6 0 0.0% presented to the winner each year, is a different cup. A notable failure in this race is champion jockey Average Number of Runners: 15.3 A P McCoy who has failed to register a win from nine attempts. Age: The race trend here is favouring 7, 8 and 9 year olds. However, in the last 10 years The Gold Cup Jockey/Trainer Combinations: Horses from the has been won three times by Best Mate and twice by N Henderson yard with Geraghty on board have a , which could skew all the trends for this far better record than another jockey. race, with two horses winning 50% of the runnings. Jockey Trainer Runners Winners Strike Rate Age Runners Winners Strike Rate Thornton R King A 7 2 28.6% 6 3 0 0.0% Johnson R Hobbs P 5 2 40.0% 7 20 4 20.0% Geraghty B J Henderson N 3 2 66.7% 8 37 3 8.1% Walsh R Nicholls P 4 1 25.0% 9 48 3 6.3% Doumen T Doumen F 3 1 33.3% 10 29 0 0.0% Swan C F Mullins W P 1 1 100.0% 11 11 0 0.0% Geraghty B J O’Neill J J 1 1 100.0% 12 3 0 0.0% Walsh R Mullins W P 5 0 0.0% 13 2 0 0.0%

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With the cautionary warning in mind that I or shorter. The three third favourites that have won mentioned above, it would be sensible to focus on were at longer prices, so really, if any of the top 7–9 year olds in the race. three in the Market are priced above 7/1–15/2 then we would have to considered eliminating them. Sex: This race has not had a mare compete in it in the last 10 years so there is a race trend based Official Handicap Mark: Before anyone says around the sex of the horses. anything, I know that The Gold Cup is a non- handicap race, so why am I looking at the Official Market Position: The Market Position gives us a Handicap Mark for trends? Well believe me, race very definite pointer to the potential winner here, trends do show up in places you least expect, and I with all 10 of the last 10 winners being in the top wouldn’t be the Statman if every rock is not turned three in the Market, and 50% of those winners being or angle explored. the Favourite. OHM Runners Winners Strike Rate Market Runners Winners Strike Rate 0 34 2 5.9% Position 180 1 0 0.0% 1 10 5 50.0% 177 3 1 33.3% 2 10 2 20.0% 176 2 2 100.0% 3 10 3 30.0% 175 1 1 100.0% 4 10 0 0.0% 174 3 1 33.3% 5 10 0 0.0% 172 1 0 0.0% The race trend here is definitely pointing to 170 3 2 66.7% eliminating any horse that is 4th in the Market or 169 3 1 33.3% further out, and focusing on just the first third in the 168 1 0 0.0% Market. 167 3 0 0.0% Starting Price: The average winning Starting All winners of this race in the past 10 years have Price is 15/4 and the average price of the Favourite had an Official Handicap Mark of 169–177 or no is 9/4, this indicates that we will have a small range handicap mark; these are the horses that we want to of prices to focus on. focus on. Market Runners Winners Strike Rate Last 3 Race Results: It goes without saying that Position the winners of this race have to have shown recent 5/7 2 1 50.0% winning potential. 10/11 1 0 0.0% Last 3 Runners Winners Strike Rate 5/4 1 1 100.0% Race Results 13/8 1 1 100.0% 111 11 3 27.3% 7/4 1 1 100.0% 211 6 1 16.7% 9/4 2 1 50.0% 121 5 1 20.0% 4/1 3 1 33.3% 152 2 1 50.0% 9/2 5 1 20.0% 1P1 1 1 100.0% 5/1 3 0 0.0% 1U1 1 1 100.0% 6/1 1 0 0.0% 122 1 1 100.0% 13/2 2 0 0.0% P25 1 1 100.0% 7/1 3 2 66.7% 113 5 0 0.0% 15/2 4 1 25.0% 1P2 4 0 0.0% 8/1 4 0 0.0% 212 3 0 0.0% 17/2 1 0 0.0% 9/1 1 0 0.0% However, it’s not as clear-cut as you would have 10/1 8 0 0.0% thought. Three of the last 10 winners have won their last three races and seven have won two of their last With Favourites having such a good record in this three races. race, the Starting Price may not be that important; as expected, the majority of winners have been at 9/2 Trainers:In the past 10 years this race has been please turn over 15 WRWM_0211.qxd 23/2/11 16:18 Page 16

dominated by P Nicholls and H Knight, however (Jonny Henderson) Grand Annual Handicap Chase Knight’s three winners were Best Mate and two of Challenge Cup which are available to you online at Nicholls’ winners were Kauto Star. www.canonburypublishing.com/cheltenham – all about each-way betting and use those stats to whittle Trainer Runners Winners Strike Rate the competitive fields down to the horses who Nicholls P 24 3 12.5% statistically have the best chances. Knight H 7 3 42.9% Twiston-Davies N4 1 25.0% Each-Way Staking Taaffe T 2 1 50.0% Morris M F 2 1 50.0% Use These Each-Way Chance N 2 1 50.0% O’Neill J J 6 0 0.0% Selections for Cheltenham Mullins W P 6 0 0.0% Alner R 6 0 0.0% Gold Cup Success Bowen P 6 0 0.0% n this Cheltenham Special edition of What Really Hourigan M 6 0 0.0% IWins Money, I wanted to cover all angles in our gladiatorial battle with the bookies for those four days So although two Trainers have dominated this in March. I asked Andrew David, the man behind race, it’s been with just two horses, so there really OPM, to provide us with his unique take on the isn’t much of a trend here. Cheltenham Festival. Jockeys: The same applies here; Culloty and Walsh are the two jockeys that have won 50% of the Andrew has made a compelling argument for each way betting. Over to him... last 10 runnings of this race, but again on two horses. “The smell of fried onions wafting through the Jockey Runners Winners Strike Rate air, pints of Guinness lined up like soldiers ready for Culloty J 3 3 100.0% battle, the crackle of plastic pint glasses been Walsh R 10 2 20.0% crushed underfoot, hands blackened with newsprint Geraghty B J 8 1 12.5% from intense form study.. Yes, it can only mean one Johnson R 5 1 20.0% thing – Cheltenham 2011 is nigh! Brennan P J 4 1 25.0% Thomas S 4 1 25.0% If there is ever a meeting where each-way betting O’Dwyer C 2 1 50.0% has to be strongly considered then it’s at the McCoy A P 10 0 0.0% Cheltenham Festival. Generous prices as a result of Murphy T 8 0 0.0% strong market liquidity, big field handicap races, Carberry P 6 0 0.0% extended place terms from many bookies, all adds up to great value for the punter. On the downside, of It is worth noting that A P McCoy has yet to ride course, is the extremely competitive nature of the a winner in the Gold Cup. event, with the crème de le crème of the National The Gold Cup is a race for repeat winners; if any Hunt scene competing for each race prize. previous winners are racing then give them special This can make it a complex maze for punters in attention. pin-pointing likely winners with very few horses Chris James – THE STATMAN clear on the ratings. Add together the desperate winter with record cancellations putting many yards TalkingRaceHorses.wordpress.com behind in their plans, and it all leads to a very My thanks must go to the Statman for what can difficult task to highlight potential winners. All the only be described as a thoroughly statistical eye on more reason for us to hedge our options and back the major races at the Festival. each-way. Each-way staking will give us an increased chance of our chosen selection/s been And it doesn’t end there, oh no!! The Statman has captured in the placing spread, with some bookies also cast his eye over the Coral Cup Handicap paying on up to five places on some feature races! Hurdle, the Wetherbys Champion Bumper, the Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle, and the Regular readers of WRWM will know I am a

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great advocate of each-way staking, even at prices as under. I like the look of Bensalem (10/1) ridden by low as 2/1 you will receive 75% of your total stake who ran here last year but fell. I returned in handicaps, and 70% in non handicaps if still feel he is worth a second chance here especially your horse gets placed. at the current price if going to post. These regular returns flowing back to your betting BENSALEM – 10/1 – each-way bank are great for your betting confidence. More Champion Hurdle importantly, they keep you in the game for another throw. The feature race of the first day and for me I am going to take a chance on another Henderson horse If you wish to read my previous articles in “Oscar Whisky” (12/1). I also feel Peddlers Cross WRWM, then please type in the address from the link (5/1) who beat Binocular into 3rd place in the below. I give a perfect illustration of why I use each- Fighting Fifth Hurdle will be knocking at the door. way staking after a night out at the dogs with a friend As I write Peddlers Cross has just won his prep race of mine. Put simply, I went home full of the joys, he at Kelso and will come on for that run I am sure as it went home out of pocket and yet we both backed the wasn’t overly impressive. However, out of the two I same dogs! am siding with Oscar Whisky. There is also an interesting article on why you OSCAR WHISKY – 14/1 – Each-Way should squeeze your toothpaste from the very bottom up, and NOT from the middle. No I haven’t DAY 2 gone mad! You will see the relevance once you read. Type in the following: http://bit.ly/opmfreearticles Neptune Hurdle At the time of writing some of my selections are No less than seven of the last 10 winners of this entered in different races, so we can’t be sure race have come from the first four in the betting, and exactly what races they will go for until closer to the I feel this year looks no different. Therefore, I am time. However, I have centred on selections with a going for “Oscars Well” (6/1) after his win at high chance of competing in the races listed. Leopardstown on 12th Feb where he trounced his rivals. There was a lot to like about the performance DAY 1 of the trained horse and I feel he will be even sharper come Cheltenham. He has got Supreme Novices Hurdle plenty of pace and stays well and that will do for is all the rage here and quite rightly me. At the time of writing Oscars Well is entered in so, however, that is now reflected in the best price of both the Neptune and Albert Bartlett Hurdle, 9/4 at the time of writing. I feel the value may have however I am confident he will go for this. gone here, although I still think he will go shorter on OSCARS WELL – 6/1 – Each-Way the day. National Hunt Chase The Irish generally have a strong record in this race with 10 winners in the past 17 runnings. Here I like the Gordon Elliott trained “Chicago However, Favourites don’t have the best record in Grey” (6/1), not a great price about the 7 year old this race, and that’s why I am looking to each-way but that’s for a reason, as he loves Cheltenham, value elsewhere and going to take a chance on having won here in December. His last race was on “Spirit Son” (8/1), after his impressive win at 28th December finishing 5th at Leopardstown in Exeter on 13th February. The timing could be just very heavy going. His trainer is confident enough to right for Spirit Son, and he could get the Nicky send him straight to the Festival with no further prep Henderson team off to a flyer with 2 miles being his race, and I echo the trainer’s confidence here. ideal trip. CHICAGO GREY (6/1) Each-Way SPIRIT SON – 8/1 – Each-Way Queen Mother Champion Chase William Hill Trophy Handicap The feature race of day 2, and I am going outside The is a very tough competitive handicap, and the the front runners in the betting here and opting for winner always appears to come at odds of 10/1 and “” (12/1). The Favourite here is please turn over 17 WRWM_0211.qxd 23/2/11 16:18 Page 18

Master Minded who won the race in 2007 and 2008 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle and may well do so again, but I won’t be playing at I am going to go for “Oscars Well” here who I the current 9/4 price especially after his disappointing mentioned earlier if he does not go for the Neptune run last year when 4th behind who again is Hurdle on Day 2. If Oscar Well’ is a non runner then also taking part. preference is for “” (5/1) out of the SIZING EUROPE – 12/1 each–way others. Bobs Worth has already won twice here and is a leading contender. DAY 3 OSCARS WELL – 6/1 – Each Way Jewson Novice Chase If Non Runner then: I am keen on the trained horse BOBS WORTH – 5/1 – Each-Way “Wishfull Thinking” (10/1) for this contest. A horse that won at Cheltenham on 29th January and if Cheltenham Gold Cup putting in a good round of jumping should be in the Now on to the big one, and again I am going to shake up at the business end of the race and goes look outside the first three in the betting. Yes, I may well at his track. be mad, but feel they have been there and done that, WISHFULL THINKING – 10/1 – Each-Way especially Denman and Kauto Star. Although out of the front runners Imperial Commander has Ryanair Chase obvious claims after his impressive 7 length win This is a race I’ve liked since it was first over Denman here last year, and if he hits 7/2+ this introduced in 2005 with five out of the six winners year then don’t let me put you off backing him each- coming from the first three in the betting, although way. last year’s winner Albertas Run has been the However, I am going to go further out in the exception to that stat. betting this year and hope fortune favours the brave Here I go with “Tranquil Sea” (6/1) who I do and have two each-way bets. hope goes for this race instead of going to Aintree The first is on “Kempes” (16/1) after his after his impressive win at Fairyhouse on 15th impressive win in the Hennessy at Leopard town on December. I would have liked to see him get another 12th February. The 8 year old travelled smoothly run under his belt before the Festival but still feel he throughout and stayed on well which is what you will be in the shake up and is a knocking each-way need for that gruelling Cheltenham Hill. Kempes bet. was not given the hardest of races and will be fit and TRANQUIL SEA – 6/1 – Each-Way ready come the day which will see him there or thereabouts. DAY 4 My second selection is for “Pandorama” (16/1) Triumph Hurdle who won the Grade 1 Lexus chase at Leopardstown on 28th December. Pandorama missed the Hennessy Again, another of those races where it’s wise to on 12th February due to a slight setback. However, shortlist those in the first four or five in the betting. trainer said he is now fit and ready. I For me it’s hard to separate “Sam Winner” (10/1) & am hoping for a clear round of jumping which will ’s “Grandouet”. Sam Winner won give him a squeak, and at 16/1 is worth an each-way in impressive style at the Cheltenham Open meeting punt. so clearly can handle the course. Grandouet is a progressive horse and open to plenty of Long Run (5/1) is a very consistent sort that has improvement. So for this race I am going to have been placed twice at Cheltenham, but I feel the 5 two each-way bets that could pay dividends year old’s best days lie ahead. especially if both are in the shake up. KEMPES – 16/1 – Each-Way SAM WINNER – 10/1 – Each-Way PANDORAMA – 16/1 – Each-Way GRANDOUET – 6/1 – Each-Way The Foxhunters Chase

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Another race I like and a great race for each-way Big Bucks 8pts Win @ 8/13 WON backing. This year I am going for an each-way bet Bensalem 2pts E/W @ 7/1 Fell two out on “Cork All Star” (10/1), whose race on 10th Feb when cantering at Huntingdon should have him match fit. Also Rite of Passage fancied is Enda Bolger trained “On The Fringe” Maximum Lay advised@ 7/2 Race position (5/1) who won well at Leopardstown and these are my two against the field. The losing bet was on Bensalem who was the winner up until the second last. CORK ALL STAR – 10/1 Each-Way Now I would be a fool if I was to not try and get ON THE FRINGE – 5/1 Each-Way them to do the same, but alas BetterTipster are Well, that’s my thoughts on the 2011 Cheltenham having none of it, and rightly so. Festival. Don’t forget to shop around for enhanced After all my pleading, I have managed to eke out prices and extended place terms, with some bookies a preview from them for the Ryanair Chase at paying up to five places on certain races. So wrap up 240pm on the Thursday of the Festival. So it’s over warm if you are attending, I have no doubt that even to bettertipster... if it’s sunny and warm where you’re travelling from, as soon as you hit Prestbury Park you will be “We’ve completed the below review for the greeted by that biting Gloucestershire wind! So it’s Cheltenham Festival, but be aware that advice has wax jackets and hip flasks at the ready and the best not yet been given to members as more information of luck! is required to determine the strength of the selection. Andrew David Ryanair Chase 2:40 Thursday (OPM) Other People’s Money Each-Way Not one of the best races this year, infact, one of Selection Service. For further info please type in:- the worst renewals I can remember for many years. http://bit.ly/opmeachway The race looks to be full of deadwood with the majority of horses without a chance of success and BetterTipster – Cheltenham Preview only in the race to utilize a day out. However, one horse that shows signs of strong potential is from a They Won’t Give You trainer that needs no introduction. Ferdy Murphy Their Selections This seems to always have a winner at the Festival and we fully expect this horse will be one of the gambles Year But Here’s an of the meeting. Exclusive Preview... The horse we are interested in is Kalahari King; at time of writing he is best priced at 10/1 with always tend to remember Cheltenham Festivals, Boylesports and available at a general price of 9/1. Ilargely because the Festival is on during my birthday week, and so I remembered well the Make no mistake; this is a top class horse who performance of the guys at www.bettertipster.co.uk has been aiming for this race all year and, so far, we last year. You will recall they gave us some free bets have not been able to find any negatives to suggest for the Festival. I think those of you who backed the otherwise. On first glance you may think that the selections still owe the better tipster guys a form figures of the horse are poor, like humans, Guinness. To refresh your memory, below are last horses lose some of their momentum with age. This year’s free selections to WRWM readers:- is the case with Kalahari King who now needs a trip of at least 2 miles and 5 furlongs because the Peddlers Cross 3pts E/W @ 9/1 WON shorter trip of 2 miles is now a bit sharp for him. Imperial Commander On his last time out the horse made eye-catching 2pts E/W @ 10/1 WON progress after nearly being taken out early on in the Khyber Kim 3pts E/W @ 9/1 2nd race. Kalahari King would have been a clear 3rd Somersby 3pts E/W @ 7/1 2nd behind Master Minded and Somersby at Ascot. The Kilty Storm 1pt E/W @ 16/1 2nd horse did finish fourth but this was still an please turn over 19 WRWM_0211.qxd 23/2/11 16:18 Page 20

impressive finish considering what happened at the Bonus Bagging 9th fence. When approaching the fateful 9th fence (http://www.bonusbagging.co.uk) the riderless Petit Robin ran straight across Kalahari King, forcing him across the width of the track and Having used this service for a week I believe I losing a lot of ground in the process. All winning understand enough about how this service operates. chance was lost, but the horse stayed on very well, As the sales page states this service shows “you finishing fast to snatch 4th. how to cash out all bonuses offered by casinos and Looking slightly further into his past form it’s bookmakers completely risk free and make £1000’s hard to forget that Kalahari King was 2nd in the in RISK FREE profit”. You could, of course, do this Arkle in 2009 and 3rd in the Queen Mother in 2010, for yourself but it is a faff, and for a one-off so there is without doubt the potential for greater payment of £27 (currently) Mike does all the hard- success this year. This year’s Ryanair Chase is work for you making this hassle free. So no nothing like the standard of his previous Cheltenham subscriptions and there is a money-back guarantee races and he should go very close. too. This is just one of a our previews and members I have easily cleared the payment in the first will be receiving many more like this closer to the week, and not from sign-up bonuses, as I am signed race date so that we can finalize the information we up with (too?) many bookmakers already. It appears have received and advise only the strongest bets. We that a risk-free profit target of around £500 per are pleased to offer What Really Wins Money readers month is easily achievable. A nice second income! a special two-week trial price of just £10! If you Most of available offers can be claimed by would like to trial our service and receive all of our activity in the evenings, so 9 to 5ers out there can Cheltenham bets then subscribe using the special use this service too. link below. This offer will start on Monday 14th So why not bag yourself some risk-free money March, the day before the Festival kicks off: and sign-up today? Just go to: http://tinyurl.com/4nwj6e2 Happy to approve this service. If www.bettertipster.co.uk can replicate their Irish Big Race Trends performance of 2010 then this one-off offer looks value. Reviewed by Matt Bisogno As to performance for the tipping service so far, well January has produced a 10-point profit for the Matt Bisogno is a , trends and betting account bets at BetterTipster. They will continue to get system enthusiast who blogs regularly over at a mention month by month as they are consistent, www.geegeez.co.uk profitable long term, and fully transparent (a review of Graham asked me to write a one-off review about each month’s account bets is available at a product called, Irish Big Race Trends (or IBRT www.bettertipster.co.uk and is fully verifiable by me). hereafter, for obvious reasons). To read more on The Cheltenham Preview, go to Now at this point I need to declare a legacy this link: interest. You see, when Tony was starting out he came www.canonburypublishing.com/cheltenham to me to ask for help promoting his product. I was impressed with it and we worked together in the early Graham Laurie’s System days of IBRT. and Tipster Update Since then, Tony’s gone on to create a very attractive product /service. So what is IBRT, and Hi, what will it do for you? I have five new reviews and an update for you Well, as the name suggests, this is a trends-based this month. You can see all the live testing plus all product that looks at the top Irish races, of which previous reviews on my blog here: there are many, generally run on weekends as well. http://www.cash-master.com/blog The thing I really like about IBRT that I haven’t

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seen anywhere else, is that it breaks the trends down Latin Love has twice finished 2nd over this into two parts. Firstly, there are the “Primary somewhat specialist distance, including in this race Trends”. These are the most robust, logical patterns last year behind She’s Our Mark, and has been that previous winners of the race have adhered to. placed all three times she’s tried the trip. At the end of that section for each race a shortlist Having had four runs this season, her last being is drawn up, comprising those runners to satisfy the three weeks ago, and with requisite official and Primary Trends. [Occasionally a horse misses a Racing Post ratings, Ryan Moore looks a “job” trend by a small margin and is included.] booking. Then, the shortlist is whittled down further by Despite a bumper field of 18 runners, Latin Love Secondary Trends – reasonable profile aspects of looks sure to go close and is a confident each-way previous winners, though not as “bankable” as the selection. Primary Trends. Now, if you’re pushed for time, you may want to At the end of that, we’re left with a selection and simply go with those selections. That’s fine, and it a danger. works well. Here’s an example which, granted has been The way I personally use this information – and cherry-picked (!), to illustrate how the manual the way I believe it’s best utilised – is to take the works: shortlist and make further eliminations based on your own criteria as well as the secondary trends. 3.05 Kilboy Estate Stakes (Listed) (3YO+) 1m1f Either way, IBRT is the only information I use Race RAG Status: GREEN prior to sizing up Irish races. Primary Trends Tony is a stand up guy, who is always there to All of the last six winners were aged 3 to 5 answer questions when they arise. IBRT costs €15 a month (about £12.50), or you can sign up until the The last six winners were Irish trained end of April for €30. Five of the last six winners had run three or more times that season. You can get Irish Big Race Trends here: Five of the last six winners were running within http://irishbigracetrends.com 25 days. The last six winners finished in the first five last Roulette Reaper time out. http://www.roulettereaper.com The last five winners had won or finished 2nd in a Roulette Reaper is a software package designed Listed or better race. to help you “reap” lots of profits from online - Shortlist. roulette systems. - Latin Love. The software can be downloaded and tried for Secondary Trends free. You can use the software 10 times before you have to purchase a licence, so there is nothing Four of the last five favourites were unplaced. stopping you from trying it out. The software itself Five of the last six winners were single figure prices. is pretty standard. Spins are recorded and bets are Five of the last six winners had an official rating of advised as necessary. The software actually just 100+. keeps a log of losing runs on five different strategies Five of the last six winners had a pre race RPR (e.g. Red/Black, Columns, Thirds, etc) and then uses 101+. a progressive staking plan as the losing sequence Five of the last six winners had previously finished continues. in the first two at The Curragh. As can be expected with these types of systems and, in particular, this type of staking, the stakes can Selection(s) rise pretty quickly. Roulette Reaper actually employs One horse stands out with a perfect trends profile. two different staking plans – one for the strategies please turn over 21 WRWM_0211.qxd 23/2/11 16:18 Page 22

that pay 2:1 and another for the strategies that pay As long as is necessary, is the short answer. 3:1. In both cases you can be betting very high Serious betting is a long-term game as you all stakes in order to win a very small amount (for know, and there are inevitable ups and downs, so example, during the test I was betting $256 in order we’ll see what the next few weeks bring before to win $1).+ drawing any conclusions.” The software also includes a list of “approved” Can’t help wondering “how long” is long enough casinos – and after a long losing run, it automatically in profit before the service starts to charge. Since suggests that you move to a new approved casino to one month of profit is not going to convince anyone carry on playing. Of course, this is where the money is with his head screwed on, how long? made as signing up to the casinos in question results in a large affiliate payment being made to the software Since it is ongoing, I won’t give it the obvious vendor. In certain cases, these affiliate payments rating. include a % of the losses that you make when playing at that casino! Derek Nadin’s No 1 Lays http://www.sportsworldpublishing.co.uk/no1lay.htm The software itself is actually quite good – it is well written and stable in operation. It’s easy to use This is an expensive system, as such things go: and the information shown is very clear, so £125 for outright purchase, or a tipping service for following the required bets and staking is a breeze. £40 per month. If you go for outright purchase, you get a four page manual and, mean as this sounds, it However, it is MATHEMATICALLY contains all the information you need – and nothing IMPOSSIBLE to win at roulette in the long-term, so else. No links to other sites, half of which don’t my advice would be to use the software once at a work, no suggestions how to handle your money, no series of different casinos (make sure you sign up at advice on the psychology of betting, just the straight the casino websites NOT through the software). facts. There are 11 rules to apply and while this Make a quick profit and then retire whilst you are sounds heavy, in fact you can whip through them ahead. Do not aim to make large profits as you will surprisingly easily. It helps that you don’t have to do find that losing sequences come along all too often. it very often in a week because one of the first rules Overall I am giving Roulette Reaper a neutral is that you can only bet on certain race meetings. You rating – the software itself works well, but I cannot use the Racing Post website for your ponderings and advise long-term use as you will inevitably lose you don’t need a subscription. money. Used in the manner described above, you I tested this system from 23rd July – 25th August, might just scrape a quick buck or two. in which time I have had just seven betting days – these are days when one of the specified meetings Portfolio Powerhouse shows up. From these, I had 17 horses which http://portfoliopowerhouse.com survived the 11 rules and became bets. They all lost. Now, 17 successful bets doesn’t constitute the end of Email received today as the trial draws to a close: our search for the ultimate betting system but the “We launched our no cost trial of Portfolio fact that this system has lost only three bets this year Powerhouse on 13th January, and it was originally and only seven in 2009 gives one a flicker of hope. going to run till 12th February. Chris Castell and Don’t get me wrong, I hate most lay systems; I myself are well aware that any service has to show a hate the way they lure you into a false sense of proven track record of verified results, and PPH is security, then whip the rug from under your feet with no exception. a couple of well-placed winners. However, I have a This is, of course, why we offered the trial in the sneaking feeling that this system might just change first place. my mind and for that reason I’m going to keep testing it for longer. After all, many a system Results thus far have been disappointing to say considered successful doesn’t do better than 10 the least therefore the no cost trial is being extended. points a month and of course, profits depend on your How long for, I hear you ask... level of staking. I’ll let you, dear reader, do the math.

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The bare stats are: that happy state, it would still take two to three months to recoup. With subscriptions added, this P/L +16.15 pts becomes an even more daunting task, so I have to Strike Rate 100% say that, at least for the reasonable future, it is Average Odds 10.24 Failed. ROI 95% after comm. Deja Vu Football Needless to say, this is Approved. http://www.dejavufootball.com/special1.htm UPDATE 17th February Murphy’s Law has been at work and since I stopped trialling the service results have improved. It’s been a poor run since the previous trial with a profit of just +8.98 points. This was due to four high According to the results on the site, when I began priced losing bets knocking the profit back quite a this trial the service was doing well. I thought that it bit, but that’s racing. may have merit, but assumed that – because of the sometimes very high odds – there could be long Out of interest, we’ve made a small modification losing/ unprofitable runs. Consequently, I decided that to the method which has been giving even better if the service was not in profit by the end of the results. Stats recorded from July last year are: month’s trial I would extend it for a few more weeks, 117 selections of which five have lost -Yes, 5. which is what I did. SR = 95.73%; The website is easy to navigate and it is very easy to check the accuracy of the results. There was never Average odds 10.77; an occasion, nor should there have been, when the Pts gained 55.5. site recorded a result differently from me. This has not been my experience with all services. OK, 55.5 pts in nearly eight months isn’t enormous but at £100 stake, it’s not to be sneezed at. All results on the website reflect accurately the I know of several systems regarded as successful selections that were given. The only differences were which return less than 10pts p.m. and in fact, I’ve in the prices obtained and this tended to balance out. come to realise that odds are so carefully set that this Where a selection was a winner, sometimes the site is probably as high as one can ever hope for. recorded a price better than the one I took and sometimes it was the other way round. Although the The trick is to monitor all qualifying races with site records the winners showing “best available 6-15 runners instead of the 10-15 of the rules. Bet odds”, sometimes I managed to improve on the close to the off, from 30 seconds to the off if “official” price. possible. A bot can do this for you. So, the recording of the results on the website Losing Lays cannot be faulted. http://www.losinglays.co.uk Unfortunately, the service itself has performed poorly during the trial period and the bank was This service has fallen into one of those dips seriously depleted. On each qualifying match four which every service, especially lay services, does. In “mini” bets of £10 are placed. With something like December, when I first took notice of it, I was 10-15 matches each weekend, £40 per match from a impressed by the results and the excellent strike rate, £1,000 bank is too rich for me and I would have well into the 80s. However, since I started this trial it been a lot more comfortable risking £20 per match. has simply spiralled down into disaster, now being 46.70pts down in about three weeks. I am in no doubt that the service is genuine and anyone who has been subscribing since it was Since, at one point per bet and with the current launched would be showing a profit. The nature of strike rate at 64%, we can hardly hope to recover the service is such that long unprofitable runs should this lost ground, I have decided to terminate this be regarded as inevitable and that has been the case trial. The previous performance showed over 20pts a during the trial. However, given that some of the month of profit but even when the service returns to

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selections are at odds of 50/1 and over and that there most other tipping services fall short. Keeping have been a number of winners at these prices, membership numbers tightly capped ensures the performance could turn round quickly. market isn’t overcrowded every time you go online to place a selection. As the bank was down by two thirds by the end of the trial, I have no choice but to recommend that This is one of the major factors that helps ensure the service be filed under Failed. Lay Profit Alert can keep on delivering consistent profits year after year. Unfortunately, on the flip side However, for anyone who doesn’t mind the it also means that spaces are extremely tight. potential long losing runs, it would be worth visiting the site from time to time to see if fortunes have There are only 350 spots available and many of turned round. these are already spoken for. So if you’re at all interested I’d recommend taking a look right away at That’s it for me this month. the information contained in this issue. All the best, Best wishes, Graham

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