Africa As New Destination for Trade Finance And
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Africa, a continent with high potential Africa a new trade and investments destination Doha, December 2013 SOMMAIRE I. Africa, a land of opportunity 1. Demography 2. A young population and urbanization 3. Improvement of the life conditions 4. Acceleration of the economic growth 5. Trade flows 6. Infrastructure investment II. Attijariwafa Bank 1. Strategy and footprint STRONG DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH, POPULATION TO REPRESENT MORE THAN 20% OF WORLD POPULATION BY 2050 Strong demographic growth Population to represent more than 20% of World population by 2050 Population (millions) 3,0% 2000 2005 2010 2015f Source: IMF, WB, UN GREAT GROWTH POTENTIAL: YOUNG POPULATION AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT Strong urban population growth 2010 40 Urbain 60 Rural 2015f Urbain 52 48 Rural LIVING STANDARD IMPROVEMENT AND MIDDLE CLASS EXPANSION GDP per capita Life expectancy PPP, US$ In years 3 060 57.2 x3 +7 1 900 53.2 1 016 49.9 1980 2000 2010 1980 2000 2010 Poverty (Subsaharan Africa) Literacy rate (Subsaharan Africa) % of population with less than 1.25 US$/day % of population older than 15 -4pts X2,7 62.6% 58.0% 57.4% 51.5% 47.5% 23.0% 1981 1999 2008 1970 2000 2010 SOURCE: World Bank STRONG GROWTH PERFORMANCE IN AFRICA SINCE 2000… Acceleration of growth in Africa during the last decade… … The second highest growth region worldwide Annual average GDP growth, 2000-2010 GDP (USD Bn) CAGR (%) 4,0 Emerging 8.6 Asia 6,0 Africa 5.1 * 4,6 Middle 2,3 4.5 East 1,9 Central 3.7 Europe Latin 3.1 America World 2.8 Develope 1.5 d … 6% at Dec. 2012 Source: Global Insight ; McKinsey Global analysis Source: McKinsey 6 … GROWTH PERFORMANCE AND INFLATION IN AFRICA GDP growth in % x% Average growth of GDP 5,2% • Strong economic growth, even past the 2008 global crisis Inflation (%) 6,2% • Inflation under control, slightly trending lower for the past 5 years Source: BAD EVOLUTION OF AFRICAN TRADE WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD • Strong growth: averaged 16% in the 2005-2011 period •Still represents less than 5% of total world trade Average annual growth Source: BAD INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS IN SUBSAHARAN AFRICA 2005-2011 ZOOM: UEMOA, CEMAC UEMOA CEMAC Country Telecom Energy Transport Total in G$ US Volume #Projects Volume #Projects Volume #Projects Volume #Projects •Mali 460 1 (-) (-) (-) (-) 460 1 •Senegal 260 1 115 3 398 2 773 6 •Ivoiry Cost 74 1 11 2 (-) (-) 85 3 •Guinea Bissau 50 2 (-) (-) (-) (-) 50 2 •Burkina Faso 573 1 (-) (-) (-) (-) 573 1 •Benin 69 1 590 1 489 1 1 148 3 •Niger 166 1 (-) (-) (-) (-) 166 1 •Togo (-) (-) 780 2 572 2 1 352 4 •Centrafrique 42 1 (-) (-) (-) (-) 42 1 •Cameroun (-) (-) 468 1 (-) (-) 468 1 • Gabon (-) (-) 143 1 92 1 235 2 • Congo (-) (-) (-) (-) 735 2 735 2 • Guinea Equatorial 322 1 (-) (-) 159 1 481 1 • Tchad (-) (-) (-) (-) 422 1 422 1 Source : World bank Σ= 2016 Σ = 10 Σ=2 107 Σ = 10 Σ=2 867 Σ = 10 Σ=6 610 Σ= 30 6 INCREASINGLY STABLE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT SINCE 2000 Main political conflicts during the 90’s Main political conflicts since 2000 Arab spring, late 2011- early 2012, on- going political transition AWB’s African footprint (excluding Morocco) • Fewer areas of political conflicts • Several free and peaceful polls organized during the 2000’s • Many forums for sub-regional dialogue set up in order to foster intra-African cooperation and conflict management (ex: African Union, ECOWAS..) 10 SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN « DOING BUSINESS » RANKINGS Rank Doing Business Evolution Countries Case study : Morocco and Rwanda 2013 2007 - 2013 1 • Mauritius • 19th • +13 Rwanda Morocco 2 • South Africa • 39th • -10 • Companies act helped • Simplification of construction simplify new company licensing process 3 • Tunisia • 50th • +30 incorporation (2 procedures • Reinforcement of minority and 3 days in order to start a shareholders’ protection and 4 • Rwanda • 52th • +106 company) and strengthen improvement of mandatory protection of minority disclosure for listed 5 • Botswana • 59th • -11 shareholders companies • Laws facilitating access to • Suppression of capital 6 • Ghana • 64th • +30 credit minimum requirement for • Simplification of limited liability companies’ 7 • Namibia • 87th • +45 crossborders trade: (SARL) creation extension of border • Leaner procedures for new 8 • Zambia • 94th • +8 checkpoint opening hours company incorporation (one- and simplification of stop shop) 9 • Morocco • 97th • + 18 paperwork • Simplification of construction 10 • Egypt • 109th • +56 licensing process Source : «Doing Business» reports • According to « Doing Business 2013 » published by the World Bank, out of the top 50 improvements in "doing business“ between 2005 and 2012, 17 are sub-saharan African countries (34% vs. a normal share of 25%) : Rwanda, Burkina Faso, Mali, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Burundi, Republic of Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Angola, Mauritius, Madagascar, Republic of Mozambique, Ivory Coast, Togo, Sao Tome and Principe, Niger and Nigeria. 11 INITIATIVES FOR SUB-REGIONAL INTEGRATION HAVE ENABLED COORDINATION OF POLITICAL AND MONETARY POLICIES Communities Members Description 1 8 countries : - Created in 1994, headquartered in Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso) West African Economic and • Benin • Mali - Main governance bodies : Monetary Union • Burkina Faso • Niger (WAEMU) • Ivory Coast • Senegal Authority of Heads of State and Government and • Republic of Guinea- • Togo council of finance ministers Bissau WAEMU commission Common Central Bank headquartered in Dakar - Common currency (XOF) and customs union - Created in 1994, headquartered in Bangui (Central African 2 6 countries : Republic) Economic Community of • Cameroon Central African States • Congo - Main governance bodies : (ECCAS) • Gabon Authority of Heads of State and Government and council of finance ministers • Equatorial Guinea ECCAS commission • Central African Republic Common Central Bank headquartered in • Chad Yaoundé - Common currency (XAF) and customs union 3 East African Community 5 countries : - Created in 2000, headquartered in Arusha (Tanzania) (EAC) • Kenya • Rwanda - Customs union and common market • Tanzania • Burundi - Monetary union under construction • Uganda 4 15 countries : - Created in 1992, headquartered in Gaborone (Botswana) Southern African • South Africa* • Malawi • Seychelles - Projects of custom union and free trade zone Development Community (SADC) • Angola • Mauritius • Swaziland* - Monetary union under construction • Botswana* • Mozambique • Tanzania • Lesotho* • Namibia* • Zambia • Madagasgar • DRC • Zimbabwe * Member countries of Southern African Customs Union (SACU) 12 AFRICA INCREASINGLY TARGETED BY INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS Growing FDI towards Africa Several investment funds dedicated to Africa FDI towards African countries Managers Funds Main operations Invested amounts USD Bn • Emerging • ECP Africa III • OSEAD Maroc Mining • NA Decline of incoming FDIs in the Capital • Moroccan (Morocco 2007) aftermath of the international Partners Infrastructure • Almes (Morocco 2009) crisis, amount remain significant Fund • Finadev (Benin 2010) • Central Africa • Nairobi Java House Growth Sicar (Kenya 2012) 60.0 • Aureos1 • West Africa • Bank of Africa (Kenya • Amounts invested in 52.6 Fund 2006) Africa: 571 USD m 49.0 • East Africa Fund • Athi River Steel Plant • Africa Health (Kenya 2006) 39.2 x30 36.3 Fund • Southey Holdings (South Africa 2009) 29.3 • Actis • NA • Adesemi • NA Communications • Afribrand Holdings 7.4 5.9 • Heritage Place (Nigeria) 2.1 • Kingdom • PAIP II • First Hydrocarbon • Amounts invested in Zephyr (Nigeria) Africa: 200 USD m 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Africa • Consolidated Infra Group (South Africa) • Mixta Africa (Maghreb) Moy. 1980-89 Moy. 1990-99 Moy. 2000-04 Moy. • Helios • Modern Africa • Shell Africa Downstream • ~1 000 USD m (in Investment Fund Business (2011) partnership) Partners • Continental Outdoor Media (South Africa • ~147 USD m 2009) • Equity Bank (Kenya 2007) SOURCE: World Bank, Investment funds website ; (1) Acquired by Abraaj in 2012 • ~179 USD m 13 13 GROWING INTEREST FROM EMERGING COUNTRIES ESPECIALLY CHINA Chinese FDI towards Africa Several infratructure projects are funded by China and involving chinese suppliers USD Bn 10% Top 10 infrastructure projects implemented by Chinese companies Funding 1 Suppliers Sectors Countries USD m 1 CCECC Transportation Nigeria, DRC, Congo 2 500 2 Sinohydro Electricity Ghana, Guinea, Sudan, 2 242 Corp. Togo 3 ZTE Telecom Ghana, Kenya, DRC, 2 101 Mali Trade between China and Africa 4 CGC Water & Cameroon, Nigeria 1 024 Electricity USD Bn 5 CGXIG Transportation Nigeria 1 000 26% 6 CGGC Electricity Nigeria 1 000 28% 7 CMEC Transportation Sudan, Senegal, 721 & Telecom Zimbabwe 8 TEC Transportation Mauritania 620 9 SEPC Corp. Electricity Sudan 512 10 CATIC Electricity Zimbabwe 500 (1) The total of Chinese fundings that concerns the projects implemented by each supplier Source:14 National bureau of statistics of China, World Bank Attijariwafa Bank Strategy and footprint in Africa ATTIJARIWAFA BANK, A PAN AFRICAN LEADING PLAYER Attijariwafa bank in a nutshell More than 6.0 million clients worldwide • Date of creation : 1904 • Employees as of June 30th 2012 : 14 861 in 22 countries Operating in 22 countries : 11 countries in Africa / 7 countries in Europe • Network as of 30th 2012 : About 2 352 branches • First market capitalisation of the Moroccan financial sector 1st national banking network • Total assets 2011 : 30.9 billion € / Total customer Loans 2011 : 20.8 billion € • Total Deposits 2011 : 26.7 billion € / Total shareholders’ equity 2011 : 2.7 billion € 2nd banking group in Africa • Rating S&P