Africa, a continent with high potential Africa a new trade and investments destination
Doha, December 2013 SOMMAIRE
I. Africa, a land of opportunity
1. Demography 2. A young population and urbanization 3. Improvement of the life conditions 4. Acceleration of the economic growth 5. Trade flows 6. Infrastructure investment II. Attijariwafa Bank 1. Strategy and footprint STRONG DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH, POPULATION TO REPRESENT MORE THAN 20% OF WORLD POPULATION BY 2050
Strong demographic growth Population to represent more than 20% of World population by 2050
Population (millions)
3,0%
2000 2005 2010 2015f
Source: IMF, WB, UN GREAT GROWTH POTENTIAL: YOUNG POPULATION AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT
Strong urban population growth
2010
40 Urbain 60 Rural
2015f
Urbain 52 48 Rural LIVING STANDARD IMPROVEMENT AND MIDDLE CLASS EXPANSION
GDP per capita Life expectancy
PPP, US$ In years
3 060 57.2 x3 +7
1 900 53.2
1 016 49.9
1980 2000 2010 1980 2000 2010
Poverty (Subsaharan Africa) Literacy rate (Subsaharan Africa)
% of population with less than 1.25 US$/day % of population older than 15
-4pts X2,7 62.6% 58.0% 57.4% 51.5% 47.5%
23.0%
1981 1999 2008 1970 2000 2010
SOURCE: World Bank STRONG GROWTH PERFORMANCE IN AFRICA SINCE 2000…
Acceleration of growth in Africa during the last decade… … The second highest growth region worldwide
Annual average GDP growth, 2000-2010 GDP (USD Bn) CAGR (%) 4,0 Emerging 8.6 Asia 6,0 Africa 5.1 * 4,6 Middle 2,3 4.5 East 1,9 Central 3.7 Europe Latin 3.1 America
World 2.8
Develope 1.5 d …
6% at Dec. 2012 Source: Global Insight ; McKinsey Global analysis Source: McKinsey 6 … GROWTH PERFORMANCE AND INFLATION IN AFRICA
GDP growth in %
x% Average growth of GDP 5,2% • Strong economic growth, even past the 2008 global crisis
Inflation (%)
6,2%
• Inflation under control, slightly trending lower for the past 5 years
Source: BAD EVOLUTION OF AFRICAN TRADE WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD
• Strong growth: averaged 16% in the 2005-2011 period •Still represents less than 5% of total world trade
Average annual growth
Source: BAD INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS IN SUBSAHARAN AFRICA 2005-2011 ZOOM: UEMOA, CEMAC UEMOA CEMAC Country Telecom Energy Transport Total in G$ US Volume #Projects Volume #Projects Volume #Projects Volume #Projects •Mali 460 1 (-) (-) (-) (-) 460 1
•Senegal 260 1 115 3 398 2 773 6
•Ivoiry Cost 74 1 11 2 (-) (-) 85 3
•Guinea Bissau 50 2 (-) (-) (-) (-) 50 2
•Burkina Faso 573 1 (-) (-) (-) (-) 573 1
•Benin 69 1 590 1 489 1 1 148 3
•Niger 166 1 (-) (-) (-) (-) 166 1
•Togo (-) (-) 780 2 572 2 1 352 4
•Centrafrique 42 1 (-) (-) (-) (-) 42 1
•Cameroun (-) (-) 468 1 (-) (-) 468 1
• Gabon (-) (-) 143 1 92 1 235 2
• Congo (-) (-) (-) (-) 735 2 735 2
• Guinea Equatorial 322 1 (-) (-) 159 1 481 1
• Tchad (-) (-) (-) (-) 422 1 422 1 Source : World bank Σ= 2016 Σ = 10 Σ=2 107 Σ = 10 Σ=2 867 Σ = 10 Σ=6 610 Σ= 30 6 INCREASINGLY STABLE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT SINCE 2000
Main political conflicts during the 90’s Main political conflicts since 2000
Arab spring, late 2011- early 2012, on- going political transition
AWB’s African footprint (excluding Morocco)
• Fewer areas of political conflicts • Several free and peaceful polls organized during the 2000’s • Many forums for sub-regional dialogue set up in order to foster intra-African cooperation and conflict management (ex: African Union, ECOWAS..) 10 SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN « DOING BUSINESS » RANKINGS
Rank Doing Business Evolution Countries Case study : Morocco and Rwanda 2013 2007 - 2013
1 • Mauritius • 19th • +13 Rwanda Morocco 2 • South Africa • 39th • -10 • Companies act helped • Simplification of construction simplify new company licensing process 3 • Tunisia • 50th • +30 incorporation (2 procedures • Reinforcement of minority and 3 days in order to start a shareholders’ protection and 4 • Rwanda • 52th • +106 company) and strengthen improvement of mandatory protection of minority disclosure for listed 5 • Botswana • 59th • -11 shareholders companies • Laws facilitating access to • Suppression of capital 6 • Ghana • 64th • +30 credit minimum requirement for • Simplification of limited liability companies’ 7 • Namibia • 87th • +45 crossborders trade: (SARL) creation extension of border • Leaner procedures for new 8 • Zambia • 94th • +8 checkpoint opening hours company incorporation (one- and simplification of stop shop) 9 • Morocco • 97th • + 18 paperwork • Simplification of construction 10 • Egypt • 109th • +56 licensing process
Source : «Doing Business» reports
• According to « Doing Business 2013 » published by the World Bank, out of the top 50 improvements in "doing business“ between 2005 and 2012, 17 are sub-saharan African countries (34% vs. a normal share of 25%) : Rwanda, Burkina Faso, Mali, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Burundi, Republic of Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Angola, Mauritius, Madagascar, Republic of Mozambique, Ivory Coast, Togo, Sao Tome and Principe, Niger and Nigeria.
11 INITIATIVES FOR SUB-REGIONAL INTEGRATION HAVE ENABLED COORDINATION OF POLITICAL AND MONETARY POLICIES
Communities Members Description
1 8 countries : - Created in 1994, headquartered in Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso) West African Economic and • Benin • Mali - Main governance bodies : Monetary Union • Burkina Faso • Niger (WAEMU) • Ivory Coast • Senegal Authority of Heads of State and Government and • Republic of Guinea- • Togo council of finance ministers Bissau WAEMU commission Common Central Bank headquartered in Dakar - Common currency (XOF) and customs union
- Created in 1994, headquartered in Bangui (Central African 2 6 countries : Republic) Economic Community of • Cameroon Central African States • Congo - Main governance bodies : (ECCAS) • Gabon Authority of Heads of State and Government and council of finance ministers • Equatorial Guinea ECCAS commission • Central African Republic Common Central Bank headquartered in • Chad Yaoundé - Common currency (XAF) and customs union
3 East African Community 5 countries : - Created in 2000, headquartered in Arusha (Tanzania) (EAC) • Kenya • Rwanda - Customs union and common market • Tanzania • Burundi - Monetary union under construction • Uganda
4 15 countries : - Created in 1992, headquartered in Gaborone (Botswana) Southern African • South Africa* • Malawi • Seychelles - Projects of custom union and free trade zone Development Community (SADC) • Angola • Mauritius • Swaziland* - Monetary union under construction • Botswana* • Mozambique • Tanzania • Lesotho* • Namibia* • Zambia • Madagasgar • DRC • Zimbabwe
* Member countries of Southern African Customs Union (SACU) 12 AFRICA INCREASINGLY TARGETED BY INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS
Growing FDI towards Africa Several investment funds dedicated to Africa
FDI towards African countries Managers Funds Main operations Invested amounts
USD Bn • Emerging • ECP Africa III • OSEAD Maroc Mining • NA Decline of incoming FDIs in the Capital • Moroccan (Morocco 2007) aftermath of the international Partners Infrastructure • Almes (Morocco 2009) crisis, amount remain significant Fund • Finadev (Benin 2010) • Central Africa • Nairobi Java House Growth Sicar (Kenya 2012) 60.0 • Aureos1 • West Africa • Bank of Africa (Kenya • Amounts invested in 52.6 Fund 2006) Africa: 571 USD m 49.0 • East Africa Fund • Athi River Steel Plant • Africa Health (Kenya 2006) 39.2 x30 36.3 Fund • Southey Holdings (South Africa 2009) 29.3 • Actis • NA • Adesemi • NA Communications • Afribrand Holdings 7.4 5.9 • Heritage Place (Nigeria) 2.1
• Kingdom • PAIP II • First Hydrocarbon • Amounts invested in
Zephyr (Nigeria) Africa: 200 USD m
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Africa • Consolidated Infra Group (South Africa)
• Mixta Africa (Maghreb)
Moy. 1980-89 Moy. 1990-99 Moy. 2000-04 Moy.
• Helios • Modern Africa • Shell Africa Downstream • ~1 000 USD m (in Investment Fund Business (2011) partnership) Partners • Continental Outdoor Media (South Africa • ~147 USD m 2009) • Equity Bank (Kenya 2007) SOURCE: World Bank, Investment funds website ; (1) Acquired by Abraaj in 2012 • ~179 USD m 13 13 GROWING INTEREST FROM EMERGING COUNTRIES ESPECIALLY CHINA
Chinese FDI towards Africa Several infratructure projects are funded by China and involving chinese suppliers USD Bn 10% Top 10 infrastructure projects implemented by Chinese companies Funding 1 Suppliers Sectors Countries USD m 1 CCECC Transportation Nigeria, DRC, Congo 2 500
2 Sinohydro Electricity Ghana, Guinea, Sudan, 2 242 Corp. Togo
3 ZTE Telecom Ghana, Kenya, DRC, 2 101 Mali
Trade between China and Africa 4 CGC Water & Cameroon, Nigeria 1 024 Electricity USD Bn 5 CGXIG Transportation Nigeria 1 000 26% 6 CGGC Electricity Nigeria 1 000 28% 7 CMEC Transportation Sudan, Senegal, 721 & Telecom Zimbabwe
8 TEC Transportation Mauritania 620 9 SEPC Corp. Electricity Sudan 512
10 CATIC Electricity Zimbabwe 500 (1) The total of Chinese fundings that concerns the projects implemented by each supplier Source:14 National bureau of statistics of China, World Bank Attijariwafa Bank Strategy and footprint in Africa ATTIJARIWAFA BANK, A PAN AFRICAN LEADING PLAYER
Attijariwafa bank in a nutshell
More than 6.0 million clients worldwide • Date of creation : 1904 • Employees as of June 30th 2012 : 14 861 in 22 countries Operating in 22 countries : 11 countries in Africa / 7 countries in Europe • Network as of 30th 2012 : About 2 352 branches • First market capitalisation of the Moroccan financial sector 1st national banking network • Total assets 2011 : 30.9 billion € / Total customer Loans 2011 : 20.8 billion € • Total Deposits 2011 : 26.7 billion € / Total shareholders’ equity 2011 : 2.7 billion € 2nd banking group in Africa • Rating S&P (long term / short term / perspective) : BB / B / Stable (excluding South Africa) • Shareholding structure as of June 2012 : N°1 in terms of loans in Morocco - SNI Group : 46.98% - Insurance companies : 17.47% 1st branches network in Morocco - Other institutional investors : 10.91% - Santusa Holding : 5.33% N°1 in asset management and stock-related - Personnel : 4.98% transactions in the Maghreb - Free float :14.33% 2nd insurer in Africa (excluding South Africa)
Leader in the Moroccan Market
2011 Loans (MADbn) 2011 Deposits (MADbn) 2010 Retail & Corporate Branches Market share 26% 24% 14% 7% 5% 28% 26% 15% 7% 5% 25% 22% 16% 8% 7% (%)
16 A WELL THOUGHT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY…
A regional expansion plan based on a well thought ….and a systematic approach strategy …
. Consolidate the strong position in the increasingly . « Country scan » : 23 countries covered in 3 mature Moroccan market geographic areas : Maghreb, Western & Central Africa - Countries attractiveness: . Reach new high growth markets . Economic indicators . Stability of the political and social environment . Activate optimal synergies through . Size of the banking market - Duplication and adaptation of the Moroccan - Banking market attractiveness successful business model in new environments . Revenues & margins - Implementation of operating business lines in other . Competition branches networks (ex: insurance, consumer credits, . Regulation investment banking…) - AWB’s ability to penetrate the markets - Costs mutualization and sharing of best practices . Selection of acquisition opportunities . Support Moroccan and regional corporate clients in their regional expansion and business development (trade & investment).
• Majority control of every acquisition in order to activate relevant synergies • Act as a significant player in every country of presence • A pragmatic approach in order to adopt the ‘Best Practices’ in every acquisition • Clear governance rules • Business synergies plan in every acquisition
17 … SUPPORTED BY A GLOBAL VISION
Develop Retail banking in every . Positioning AWB as a universal bank, addressing the needs of large groups and multinational companies, as well as SMEs and retail country of presence as a global banking player . Low income banking, insurance, financial services, Migrant banking through AWB Europe …
. Development of Trade finance Develop the economic regional . Cooperation with international institutions integration . Support european companies in stimulating their trade and investments towards Africa, through AWB Europe
. Extension banking network Long term commitment and sustained investments in every country of . Recruitments presence . Training
. Project finance and PPP . Private Equity Support investment . Investment banking . Private banking
18 A PROPERLY PERFORMED STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN …
Market shares Morocco* 21.6% 22.6% 25.0% 25.4% 25.6% 25.6% 26.2% 26.0% ** Presence in Africa 0 1 2 2 4 7 9 10
15 882 14 667 NBI Morocco - MMAD 13 255 NBI International - MMAD Market capitalization (as of 10 967 31/12) - MMAD 78.5 8 793 67.6 7 415 59.4 52.1 5 637 49.7 5 114 44.4
23.9 18.3 22% 24% 15% 7% 9% 14%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
April 2008 July 2006 March 2011 .Acquisition of a 79% stake in Creation of Acquisition of a the CBAO (Senegal) Attijariwafa bank 51% stake in SCB .Presence in Guinea-Bissau Senegal Cameroon following the acquisition of CBAO (through its subsidiaries) December 2010 .Acquisition, by a consortium of November 2008 AWB (67%) and Banque .Acquisition a 51% stake in the Populaire (33%), of a 80% BIM (Mali) stake of BNP Paribas .Merger of Attijari Bank Mauritania December 2004 September 2005 Senegal and CBAO .Creation by CBAO Attijariwafa Merger of License to open a subsidiary in bank of a branch in Burkina BCM/Wafabank Sinegal granted January 2007 Faso. November 2005 Takeover of the Senegalo Tunisienne Bank (67%) September, December 2009 Acquisition of a 54% stake in . Acquisition of Crédit du Congo and Banque du Sud (Tunisie) Union Gabonaise de Banque ; . Acquisition of Société Ivoirienne de *Market shares : Customer loans Banque and Crédit du Sénégal. **Nbr. of countries (except Morocco)
19 UNIQUE, LARGE AND DIVERSIFIED PAN-AFRICAN NETWORK
AWB African Footprint Overview of Main International Operations
Morocco 1 Tunisia Mauritania Attijariwafa Bank Attijari Bank Attijari Bank Mauritanie Year of entry: NA Year of entry: 2005 Year of entry: 2010 Loan market share: 26% (#1) Loan market share: 8% (#7) Loan market share: 5% (#9) Branches: 1,590 Branches: 179 Branches: 2 Tunisia NBI: USD1,508m NBI: USD134m NBI: n.m. Net income: USD474m Net income: USD24m Net income: n.m. 28% Morocco
Senegal Ivory Coast Mali CBAO & Crédit du Sénégal Société Ivoirienne deBanque BIM Mauritania Mali 8% Year of entry: 2005 Year of entry: 2009 Year of entry: 2008 n.m. Senegal Loan market share: Loan market share: 10% (#5) Loan market share: 12% (#2) Burkina Guinea 23% Faso CBAO: 17%(#2)/CdS: 5%(#8) Branches: 306 Branches: 79 Bissau n.a. (#1 overall) NBI: USD54m NBI: USD38m n.a. Ivory Coast Cameroon Branches: 164 Net income: USD13m Net income: USD2m 11% 9% NBI: USD108m Congo Net income: USD16m Gabon 7% 11%
Cameroon Congo Gabon SCB Crédit du Congo Union Gabonaise de Banque North Africa Year of entry: 2011 Year of entry: 2009 Year of entry: 2008 Loan market share: 12% (#4) Loan Market share: 14% (#3) Loan market share: 16% (#3) West Africa Branches: 21 Branches: 14 Branches: 10 NBI: USD42m NBI: USD34m NBI: USD53m Central Africa Net income: USD4m Net income: USD10m Net income: USD8m
% % of International NBI contribution
Source: Company information based on Dec-2011 data New acquisitions in 2013: Togo and Niger Note: NBI contribution to 2011 to consolidated Group NBI; USD/MAD FX average for 2011: 8.09; market shares as of Sep-2011 but for Morocco (Dec-2011) 6 1. Including specialised subsidiaries in Morocco. AN ATTRACTIVE PAN AFRICAN FOOTPRINT WITH DOMINANT POSITION ACROSS FRENCH SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES
A Major African Player in Terms of Total Assets… …With a Leading Platform in North, Western and Central Africa…
Standard Bank Group 201.0 African footprint 11 19 32 14 9 1 Absa 107.8 42.7 Firstrand Banking Group 98.3 2 8.2 Nedbank 91.6 12.0 National Bank of Egypt 51.2 17.2
th Attijariwafa Bank 36.6 6 2 4.9 4.5 Total Total Assets ($bn) 1.3 BEA 32.0
Bank Misr 30.6 AWB UBA ECOBANK BOA BGFI
Gumhouria Bank 26.1
Crédit Populaire du Maroc 25.4 Source: Jeune Afrique HS n°25 Source: Total Assets in $bn (2011 Data with the exception of BoA(2010) – Annual reports, press) Note: Total Assets in $bn (2010 data with the exception of Libyan banks that are as at Note: 1NGN: 0.0062 USD (source:forexticket.fr); USD/MAD FX average for 2011: 8.047306 December 2009) (1) Number of countries of presence in Africa. 2011 figures (except for BoA – 2010) (2) Assets outside domestic activities … And Leading Positions in its Key Markets
Rank of 1st 6th 1st 5th 3rd 3rd 4th 4th
AWB
Market Market Share (in Customer (in Customer Loans)
26% 22% 8% 10% 15% 14% 11% 11% Morocco Tunisia Senegal Ivory Coast Gabon Congo Mali Cameroon Source: Attijariwafa bank AWB Other players Note: Dec-2011data AFRICA, A NEW FRONTIER FOR INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS …
Growing FDI inflows towards Africa A growing interest of private equity funds
Fund Managers Funds Main transactions Amounts
Bn USD • Emerging • ECP Africa III • OSEAD Maroc Mining • n/a Capital • Moroccan (Morocco 2007) Partners Infrastructure • Almes (Morocco 2009) 60.0 Fund • Finadev (Benin 2010) • Central Africa • Nairobi Java House 52.6 Growth Sicar (Kenya 2012) 49.0 • Aureos • West Africa • Bank of Africa (Kenya • Total : 571 USD m Fund 2006) 39.2 x30 36.3 • East Africa Fund • Athi River Steel Plant • Africa Health (Kenya 2006) 29.3 Fund • Southey Holdings (South Africa 2009)
• Actis • n/d • Adesemi • n/a Communications 5.9 7.4 • Afribrand Holdings 2.1 • Heritage Place (Nigeria)
• Kingdom • PAIP II • First Hydrocarbon • Total : 200 USD m
Zephyr (Nigeria)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Africa • Consolidated Infra Group (South Africa)
• Mixta Africa (Maghreb)
Moy. 1980-89 Moy. 1990-99 Moy. 2000-04 Moy.
• Helios • Modern Africa • Shell Africa Downstream • ~1 000 USD m Investment Fund Business (2011) Partners • Continental Outdoor • ~147 USD m Media (South Africa 2009) • Equity Bank (Kenya • ~179 USD m 2007) 22 SOURCE: World Bank 22 CASE STUDY REGIONAL EXPANSION OF MOROCCAN COMPANIES IN AFRICA Sub-Saharan footprint of Moroccan companies Moroccan FDI outflows towards sub-Saharan Africa (USD m)
xxx Share in total Moroccan FDI outflows xxx CAGR 08-10 51% 73% 87% Tunisia Morocco 495 41%
Mauritania Mali 321 Niger Senegal Chad 248 Gambia Burkina Sudan Guinea Faso Sierra Ivory Leone Centrafrican Coast Benin Cameroon Rep. Togo Uganda Ghana Equatorial Congo Kenya Gabon Guinea Democratic Republic of 2008 2009 2010 Burundi Congo Tanzania
Angola Trade between morocco and sub-Saharan Africa* (USD m) Moroccan exports Moroccan Imports CAGR 05-11 Madagascar % of total Moroccan 1,8% 1,5% 1,04% 3,14% imports / exports 637
Main Moroccan companies operating in sub-Saharan Africa 437 385
264
2005 2011 *Includes only South Africa, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Ivory Coast, Centrafrican Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, Guinea, Senegal, Togo, Ghana, Madagascar, Mali, Benin, Burkina Faso, Kenya, Tanzania, Source : Moroccan press Congo 23 ATTIJARIWAFA BANK, PARTNERSHIP WITH INVESTORS
Global services for investors through complementary business lines
Financing/ Capital markets, Project finance Investment banking Private Equity Trade finance offshore
• Leadership acquired through its • Large experience in financing • Support investment through a comprehensive and integrated range • Ability to support the effort by long experience in financing complex projects (Project finance) of products and services: specialized subsidiaries, investment banking, investment maturities and SMEs and large companies and structuring banking private equity ... appropriate pricing formulas. investments ; syndicates in Morocco and • Global capital markets supports • Effective financing of major abroad projects in Morocco; • Offshore solutions through Attijari International Bank
Segment Subsidiary Subsidiary Segment
Attijari Finances Corp. Attijari Invest
. A leading player : . Recognized leader in M&A and . Recognized player in the Leadership in all segments of the Moroccan Private Equity market, Project Finance ; debt/equity origination ; capital market : Attijari Invest manages several Assets financing ; . Significant advisory experience funds mainly including : . Foreign exchange ; in : Acquisition financing; Agram Invest ; . Commodities Privatisations ; Financing corporate Moroccan Infrastructure . Interest rate instruments investment ; Infrastructures ; Fund; . Derivatives/Forex Financing structured real M&A transactions. Igrane estate projects. . The strategy of the investment H Partners ; bank is to duplicate its valuable Foncière Emergence ; experience and leadership in Africa. The opening of offices in Maroc Numeric Fund ; Tunis and Dakar reflects this 3P Fund commitment.
24 Thank you for your attention