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Beyond DCF Analysis in Real Estate Financial Modeling: Probabilistic Evaluation of Real Estate Ventures

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Beyond DCF Analysis in Real Estate Financial Modeling: Probabilistic Evaluation of Real Estate Ventures Beyond DCF Analysis in Real Estate Financial Modeling: Probabilistic Evaluation of Real Estate Ventures by Keith Chin‐Kee Leung Bachelor of Commerce, Sauder School of Business University of British Columbia, 2007 Submitted to the Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Real Estate Development at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY February 2014 © 2014 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All rights reserved. Signature of Author__________________________________________________________________________________ MIT Center for Real Estate January 30, 2014 Certified by___________________________________________________________________________________________ Richard de Neufville, PhD Professor of Engineering Systems and of Civil and Environmental Engineering Thesis Co‐Supervisor Certified by___________________________________________________________________________________________ David Geltner, PhD Professor of Real Estate Finance and of Engineering Systems Director of Research, Center for Real Estate Thesis Co‐Supervisor Accepted by___________________________________________________________________________________________ David Geltner, PhD Chairman, Interdepartmental Degree Program in Real Estate Development Beyond DCF Analysis in Real Estate Financial Modeling: Probabilistic Evaluation of Real Estate Ventures by Keith Chin‐Kee Leung Submitted to the Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate on January 30, 2014 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Real Estate Development ABSTRACT This thesis introduces probabilistic valuation techniques and encourages their usage in the real estate industry. Including uncertainty and real options into real estate financial models is worthwhile, especially when there is an elevated level of unpredictability surrounding the investment decision. Incorporating uncertainty into real estate pro formas not only provides different results over deterministic models, it changes the angle of attack to real estate valuation problems. When uncertainty is taken into account, the focus shifts from simply maximizing financial returns, to modeling and managing uncertainty to make better ex ante finance and design decisions. The ability to add optionality in probabilistic financial modeling can enhance returns by curtailing losses during downturns and taking advantage of upside conditions. A step‐by‐step example is carefully crafted to demonstrate the simplicity with which uncertainty, Monte Carlo Simulations and Real Options may be included into real estate pro formas. The example is entirely Excel based and is separated into three parts with each progressively increasing in complexity. SimpleCo Tower establishes the familiar Discounted Cash Flow pro forma as a starting point. ModerateCo Tower describes how uncertainty and Monte Carlo simulations can be incorporated into a pro forma while illustrating the effect of non‐linearity on financial models. ChallengeCo Tower reveals how real options can add value to an investment and how it should not be overlooked. The case study illustrates how the techniques outlined in this thesis can add significant value to real estate decisions without much added effort or investment in expensive software. The case study also shows how the use of real world data to model uncertainty can be put into practice. Thesis Co‐Supervisor: Richard de Neufville, PhD Title: Professor of Engineering Systems and Civil and of Environmental Engineering Thesis Co‐Supervisor: David Geltner, PhD Title: Professor of Real Estate Finance and of Engineering Systems Director of Research, Center for Real Estate Beyond DCF Analysis in Real Estate Financial Modeling: Probabilistic Evaluation of Real Estate Ventures 2 Table of Contents ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................... 3 Table of Figures ......................................................................................................................................... 5 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................. 6 CHAPTER 1: Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 7 1.1 Thesis Purpose ............................................................................................................................ 7 1.2 Format of Presentation ............................................................................................................... 8 1.3 Current Industry Practice: Excel, Argus and Discounted Cash Flow Analysis ........................ 9 1.4 Reluctance to Adopt New Techniques and Reliance on Intuition ......................................... 10 1.5 The Role of Modern Pedagogy in this Thesis .......................................................................... 12 CHAPTER 2: SimpleCo Tower – A Deterministic Example .............................................................. 14 2.1 Assumptions of a Deterministic Model .................................................................................... 14 2.2 Projecting Cash Flows for SimpleCo Tower ............................................................................ 14 2.3 Return Measures: NPV and IRR ................................................................................................ 15 CHAPTER 3: ModerateCo Tower ‐ Incorporating Uncertainty into a Financial Model .............. 16 3.1 Uncertainty in the Rent Growth Rate of ModerateCo Tower ................................................. 16 3.2 Monte Carlo Simulations and Expected NPV ........................................................................... 17 3.3 The Flaw of Averages and Jensen’s Inequality ........................................................................ 18 3.4 A Different Approach to Real Estate Financial Analysis: Distributions and Risk Profiles ... 20 3.5 Static Input Variables versus Random Walks ......................................................................... 22 CHAPTER 4: ChallengeCo Tower ‐ Managing Uncertainty in Real Estate Projects ..................... 24 4.1 Real Option Analysis in ChallengeCo using IF Statements ..................................................... 24 4.2 ChallengeCo Tower’s Result with a Real Option ..................................................................... 25 CHAPTER 5: Quantifying Uncertainty in the Real World ................................................................. 28 5.1 Predictability in the Real Estate Market .................................................................................. 28 5.2 Real Estate Economics and the Stock Flow Model for Office Properties .............................. 30 5.3 Sources of Uncertainty in Real Estate ...................................................................................... 31 CHAPTER 6: Managing Uncertainty in the Real World .................................................................... 37 6.1 The Basics of Financial Options ................................................................................................ 37 6.2 Sources of Value for Financial Options .................................................................................... 38 6.3 The Valuation of Financial Options .......................................................................................... 40 Beyond DCF Analysis in Real Estate Financial Modeling: Probabilistic Evaluation of Real Estate Ventures 3 6.4 Real Options ............................................................................................................................... 41 CHAPTER 7: Two World Trade Center Case Study ............................................................................ 44 7.1 Scenario Background ................................................................................................................ 44 7.3 Projecting Rents, Cap Rates, Construction Costs and Operating Expenses .......................... 46 7.4 Pro Formas ................................................................................................................................. 51 7.5 Real Option Triggers ................................................................................................................. 52 7.6 Results ........................................................................................................................................ 53 CHAPTER 8: Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 55 BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................................................ 57 Appendix A Incorporating Uncertainty into a Financial Model ........................................... 60 Appendix B Performing Monte Carlo Simulations .................................................................. 62 Appendix C Creating Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) in Excel ......................... 64 Appendix D Using IF Statements to
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