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I. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT (1) 1. Singapore Has Experienced A Singapore WT/TPR/S/67 Page 1 I. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT (1) INTRODUCTION 1. Singapore has experienced a remarkable structural transformation in a relatively short period of time. Economic growth, based on export-oriented manufacturing and services, has been rapid, averaging around 7.5% annually between 1980 and 1998, with the exception of 1985 and 1986, enabling Singapore to achieve one of the world's highest per capita incomes (S$36,560 or around US$21,850 in 1998). Production, initially led by labour-intensive, export-oriented manufacturing, has increasingly moved to capital-intensive, higher value-added manufacturing activities and services, based on skilled labour and capital. The share of the workforce with secondary and higher education skills grew from around 16% in 1975 to 62% in 1998 in line with the economy's structural transformation. 2. Economic growth in Singapore has been supported, in the main, by high national savings and investment, and liberal trade and foreign investment policies. Singapore's exceptionally high savings rate of over 50% of GDP has underpinned an investment to GDP ratio of over 35% on average.1 The substantial savings/investment surplus has also allowed significant outward investment by Singaporeans. In addition, the importance of inward foreign investment is clear from Singapore's liberal foreign investment regime, which has encouraged foreign investment to play a major role in economic development: foreign investment commitments in manufacturing have accounted for close to 77% of the total since the 1980s. 3. Growth remained at around 8% until 1998, when it dropped sharply as a consequence of the severe economic slowdown in the region. The Government has, nevertheless continued its programme of liberalization, and its flexible macroeconomic policies have helped Singapore to withstand the worst effects of the regional slowdown and of financial contagion. In particular, prudent fiscal policies, resulting in a significant accumulation of reserves, have enabled the Government to implement short-term tax cuts, while monetary policy has been loosened to allow the exchange rate to adjust to new macroeconomic conditions. In addition, Singapore has maintained a consistent approach to liberalization, accelerating economic reform in key sectors, such as financial services, despite its vulnerability to the regional economic crisis. 4. Short-term measures to reduce business costs appear to have alleviated, temporarily, cost pressures, although in the longer run Singapore may face a loss of competitiveness in certain lower value-added manufacturing activities. This hypothesis appears to be supported in a recently concluded study by the Committee on Singapore's Competitiveness, which has suggested stepped-up efforts to encourage higher value-added activities. (2) RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 5. Between 1995 and 1997 Singapore's economy grew rapidly, averaging over 8% annually, while inflation and unemployment remained low, averaging around 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively (Tables I.1 and I.2). This growth is largely attributable to sound macroeconomic policies and high rates of investment, averaging almost 37% of GDP during the period. Singapore's national savings rates are among the highest in the world, at over 50% of GDP, due in great part to the Central Provident Fund (CPF) scheme, which was established in 1955 to ensure old-age and sickness benefits for the working population (Box I.1). Under the scheme, employers and employees were each required to contribute 20% of the employees' monthly income to the CPF. As part of a cost cutting initiative, the employers' contribution was reduced to 10% in January 1999. However, evidence of a 1 International Monetary Fund (1995). WT/TPR/S/67 Trade Policy Review Page 2 tightening labour market in early 1999 prompted the Government to raise it by two percentage points, to 12%, from April 2000; the Government hopes to restore the employer's contribution to its former 20% within five years.2 Table I.1 Economic performance, 1995-99 Q1 Q2 Q3 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1999 1999 Percentage change Real GDP 8.1 7.6 8.9 0.3 0.6 6.7 6.7 Real domestic demand 9.0 12.1 10.2 -5.1 -7.7 6.0 13.4 Consumption expenditure 5.4 8.5 7.2 1.2 3.2 5.1 8.3 Gross fixed capital formation 11.2 23.3 10.2 -4.7 16.5 -3.7 1.7 Competitiveness Labour productivity in 6.5 2.9 5.5 1.6 14.3 20.4 19.3 manufacturing Unit labour costs 2.6 2.4 0.6 2.7 -10.0 -13.6 -10.8 Unit labour cost index for 124.5 127.5 128.7 127.3 115.7 92.5 93.2 manufacturing (1998 = 100) Unit business cost index for 122.8 125.4 126.5 124.6 115.5 104.0 104.2 manufacturing (1998 = 100) GDP deflator 2.9 1.1 1.4 -1.0 .. .. .. Inflation (CPI) 1.7 1.4 2.0 -0.3 -0.6 0.1 0.9 Nominal exchange rate index (1990 117.7 123.3 126.3 125.6 .. .. .. = 100) Real effective exchange rate index 112.0 115.9 118.4 114.0 .. .. .. (1990 = 100) Money and credit Broad money (M3) 8.7 8.6 8.3 8.0 6.8 8.5 7.3 Credit to private sector 20.3 15.8 12.7 8.0 6.2 7.9 6.3 3-month interest rate 2.4 3.4 6.6 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.2 Per cent of GDP a Overall fiscal balance 5.1 1.7 3.6 -0.3 -3.5 .. .. Savings and investment Gross domestic savings 50.0 50.7 51.1 51.3 .. .. .. Gross domestic investment 34.5 37.0 38.7 33.5 .. .. .. Balance of trade and payments Total merchandise trade 13.2 5.1 5.7 -7.5 -9.4 8.0 10.4 Value of exports (S$ billion) 167.5 176.3 185.6 183.8 42.1 47.8 49.7 Value of imports (S$ billion) 176.3 185.2 196.6 169.9 40.2 46.0 49.7 Services balance (S$ billion) 17.1 14.5 16.5 0.6 0.7 2.1 2.5 Capital account balance (S$ billion) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.08 -0.09 -0.07 Terms of trade, 1990 = 100 92.6 91.5 90.7 87.3 .. .. .. Balance of payments (S$ billion) 12.2 10.4 11.9 5.0 -0.4 4.8 .. Percentage of GDP 10.3 8.1 8.3 3.5 .. .. .. Current account balance (S$ billion) 20.5 20.5 22.3 29.5 6.5 8.3 6.9 Table I.1 (cont'd) 2 Republic of Singapore (1999a). Singapore WT/TPR/S/67 Page 3 Q1 Q2 Q3 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1999 1999 International reserves and debt Gross official reserves (S$ billion) 97.3 107.8 119.6 124.6 124.3 125.9 129.6 (In months of imports) 6.6 7.0 7.3 8.8 9.0 8.9 8.8 Gross external public debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. (S$ billion) .. Not available. a Financial year. Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry, Economic Survey of Singapore, various years; and data provided by the authorities. 6. Another important feature of Singapore's rapid growth is its openness to trade, which has played an important role in growth. Since 1990, on average, trade (exports in goods and services plus imports in goods and services) has accounted for around 300% of GDP; however, this share has been declining since 1995 (Chart I.1). The decline in 1996 was largely due to the downturn in global demand for electronics, which accounted for about 43% of Singapore's total trade. As a consequence, total export growth slowed significantly, to a modest 5% in 1996, in contrast to the strong double-digit growth rates achieved during 1990-95. GDP growth, however, was underpinned by strong growth in construction and financial services. The onset of the regional economic crisis in July 1997 weakened Singapore's trade in goods and services significantly in 1997 and 1998. Trade in services declined as a large percentage of these exports is destined for regional economies, which were hard hit by the crisis. 7. During the first half of 1998, the economy experienced a sharp slowdown, with real GDP growth falling to 2.2%, the lowest growth rate since the economic recession of 1985. The economy went into recession during the second half of 1998. As a small open economy, Singapore is especially vulnerable to external economic shocks. Slower economic growth in 1998 and early 1999 has been mainly attributed to recession in several Asian countries, which has depressed demand for exports from Singapore; sharp currency depreciations in major competing markets in the Asian region have also cut into the cost competitiveness of exports from Singapore. At the same time, global over-capacity in the electronics industry contributed to a decline in Singapore's manufacturing sector, which shrank by 0.4% in 1998.3 Construction suffered the biggest drop, with growth falling from 15% in 1997 to 4% in 1998; the sector contracted by 9.1%, 13% and 16% in the first three quarters of 1999. Services, which are more dependent on demand in the region, also performed poorly, with growth in financial services declining from 23% in 1997 to 8.8% in 1998. Following average annual growth of 6.3% in 1996 and 1997, the wholesale and retail trade shrank by 4.1% in 1998 (Table I.2). 8. The results of this slowdown are apparent from the rate of unemployment, which rose sharply to 3.2% in 1998, compared to 1.8% the year before; manufacturing accounted for a large share of job losses (around 65%) largely because of lower economic activity in the electronics industry.
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